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US: CPI (Jul) rose 2.0%

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) -The Department of Labour informed that US consumer prices rose at an annual pace of 2.0% during July, banging on estimates. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.1%. Core CPI, which strips food and energy costs, rose 1.9% over the last twelve months and 0.1% inter-month.

 

 

 


 

 

Aug 19, 2014

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EUR/USD hits fresh 2014 lows after US data

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD fell to fresh year-to-date lows after the latest series of US inflation and housing data.

 

Although inflation figures were in line with expectations, housing starts jumped to the highest level in 8 months, indicating a pick up in building. Annual US consumer price index grew by 2.0% for the headline and 1.9% for the core in July, matching market’s expectations. Separated data showed housing starts rose 15.7% to 1.093 million in July versus 7.6% forecasted.

 

The dollar strengthened broadly and dragged the EUR/USD to fresh 2014 lows as stops were triggered. The pair rushed to a low of 1.3319 so far and it was last down 0.24% at 1.3330.

 

EUR/USD technical levels

 

As for technical levels, next supports are now seen at 1.3295 (Nov 7 2013 low), 1.3250 (mid-September 2013 lows) and 1.3230 (Sep 10 2013 low). On the flip side, resistances could be found at 1.3400 (psychological level), 1.3411/14 (Aug 13 & 15 highs) y 1.3432 (Aug 8 high).

 

 

 


 

 

Aug 19, 2014

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USD/CAD back to 1.0900

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The USD/CAD quickly faded the spike to fresh highs just below 1.0920 in the wake of the US data releases.

 

USD/CAD tests fresh highs on US data

 

Spot posted fresh 3-day highs after the US consumer prices advanced 2.0% in a year to July, in line with market forecasts. Core prices rose 1.9% over the last twelve months, in line with estimates and previous print. Further data showed both Building Permits and Housing Starts surpassing expectations at 1.052M and 1.093 M, respectively. In the view of Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, “Having found firm support late last week around the 200-day MA, USDCAD really needs to make a little clearer headway through the low 1.09 area if it is to stabilize—and improve further – from a technical point of view… We look for support at 1.0890/95 today to provide a base for funds to retest 1.0950 in the days ahead”.

 

USD/CAD levels to watch

 

At the moment the pair is advancing 0.17% at 1.0906 facing the next hurdle at 1.0919 (high Aug.15) followed by 1.0921 (high Aug.14) and finally 1.0941 (high Aug.13). On the flip side, a breach of 1.0868 (200-d MA) would open the door to 1.0861 (low Aug.15) and then 1.0808 (Kijun).

 

 

 


 

 

Aug 19, 2014

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GBP/USD edges even lower after US data

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD stretched to yet another 4-month low at the beginning of the American session as the greenback strengthened after the release of US inflation and housing data.

 

Annual US consumer price index grew by 2.0% for the headline and 1.9% for the core in July, matching market's expectations. On a strong note, US housing starts rose 15.7% to 1.093 million in July versus 7.6% forecasted, reaching the highest level in 8 months and indicating a pick up in building. 

 

The GBP/USD, that was underperforming in the wake of UK CPI downside surprise, fell to a fresh 4-month low of 1.6622 in recent dealings.

 

GBP/USD technical levels

 

In terms of technical levels, the Cable could find next supports at 1.6602/00 (Apr 8 low/psychological level), 1.6564 (Apr 7 low) and 1.6548 (Apr 4 low). On the flip side, resistances are now seen at 1.6667 (200-day SMA), 1.6700 (psychological level) and 1.6727 (Aug 19 high).

 

 

 


 

 

Aug 19, 2014

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USD extends its rally - BTMU

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, remarks the USD upside momentum ahead of the FOMC minutes.

 

Key Quotes

 

"Upward trend resumes after stalling during the first half of August The US dollar has continued to strengthen in the Asian trading session leading to USD/JPY breaking above the top of its recent tight trading range between 101.00 and 103.00. US dollar upward momentum resumed yesterday with the dollar index rising to its highest level since the 9th September 2013 after finally breaking decisively above resistance at around the 81.50-level."

 

"The US dollar is continuing to derive support from the ongoing outperformance of the US economy in the near-term which appears to be strengthening while growth in most other major economies is losing momentum. It was revealed yesterday that both housing starts and building permits rebounded by more than expected in July providing further evidence that the US housing market is beginning to rebound after weakness in the first half of this year. Still, the underlying trend in housing starts remains one of only very gradual improvement while permits have flat-lined so far during 2014."

 

"The release yesterday of the latest US CPI report also revealed that inflation pressures have eased over the last couple of months. Core inflation increased for the second consecutive month by just 0.1% in July."

 

"It supports Fed Chair Yellen’s view that the pick-up in inflation in the first five months of this year may prove to be just “noise” with underlying inflation pressures still subdued. As a result the Fed is likely to feel more comfortable to maintain its current loose monetary stance for longer which will help dampen upward pressure on US yields and the US dollar from strengthening economic growth momentum in the US."

 

"It leaves us a little cautious about chasing further US dollar gains in the near-term ahead of Fed Chair Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Before that the release of the latest FOMC minutes from their 29th-30th July meeting will be in focus today. We do not expect a more detailed discussion of the Fed’s expect strategy until later this year after the Fed has brought an end to QE in the autumn."

 

 

 


 

 

Aug 20, 2014

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GBP/USD clinches to 1.6650

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling remains on the right footing on Wednesday, with the GBP/USD meandering around the mid-1.6600s so far.

 

GBP/USD bid despite the risk-off tone

 

The upbeat sentiment post-BoE minutes is currently bolstering the upside in the sterling, managing quite well to keep the middle area of 1.6600. It is worth recalling that the GBP reacted positively following the MPC vote, where members M.Weale and I.McCafferty favoured an immediate rate hike. “The August MPC Minutes symbolically brought the first dissenting policy votes, but we do not believe that a November 2014 Bank Rate hike is materially more likely following these Minutes… The RBS forecast remains for the first 25bp hike to come in February 2015, with 25bp increases in the Inflation Report months of May, August and November 2015 – ie, Bank Rate at 1.5% at end-2015”, suggested Ross Walker, Analyst at RBS.

 

GBP/USD levels to consider

 

As of writing the pair is up 0.20% at 1.6650 with the next hurdle at 1.6722 (10-d MA) followed by 1.6728 (high Aug.19) and finally 1.6739 (high Aug.18). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.6567 (low Apr.7) would target 1.6555 (low Apr.4) en route to 1.6500 (psychological level).

 

 

 


 

 

Aug 20, 2014

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No November BoE rate hike expected despite dissenting votes - RBS

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Ross Walker, Senior UK Economist at RBS suggests that even though two MPC members decided to vote for a 25 bp rate hike in August, as BoE minutes showed, the rise should not be carried out as soon as November 2014. 

 

Key quotes

 

"We continue to regard Mssrs Weale and McCafferty as outliers not bellwethers – at the margin, our confidence in this view is reinforced following yesterday's CPI inflation data and today's MPC Minutes."

 

"The RBS forecast remains for the first 25bp hike to come in February 2015, with 25bp increases in the Inflation Report months of May, August and November 2015 – ie, Bank Rate at 1.5% at end-2015."

 

"The risks around this forecast are tilted modestly towards later and slower tightening (eg, heightened financial market volatility around the May 2015 election might augur in favour of unchanged policy settings)."

 

 


 

 

Aug 20, 2014

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EUR/GBP trend line and MA important short term support for continuation - ForexTrading.TV

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Laith Marmarchi, currency analyst at ForexTrading.TV, suggests that the EUR/GBP trend line and MA provide important short term support for continuation.

 

 


 

 

Aug 20, 2014

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Encouraging price action for USD/CAD bulls - TD Securities

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - The TD Securities team of analysts suggest that the gains in funds over the past few days from the upper 1.08 area is very encouraging for USD/CAD bulls. 

 

Key quotes

 

"The market is ripe for another, broader squeeze up in the USD under the right circumstances."

 

"Today in particular that would come in the form of disappointing Canadian wholesale trade data (weaker data may point to softer growth) and a constructive undertone to the FOMC minutes." 

 

"Technically, a push through resistance at 1.0960—the top of the broad bull flag consolidation channel in formation over the past few months—should set the USD up for more medium-term gains (towards 1.16/1.17 potentially in the next 6-9 months)."

 

"This level should resonate a little more with the market than the neckline of what looks to be an inverse H&S low/reversal formation which comes in at 1.0990; sustained gains through here would point to the USD rallying to the mid 1.13s in the next 3 months or so."

 

"We remain bullish on the near-term outlook for the USD and target a rally to 1.1050; sustained, short-term gains in funds would suggest building risks of an extended run higher in funds moving into 2015 (formally, we target 1.15 in Q1)."

 

 


 

 

Aug 20, 2014

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Canada: Wholesale sales grow less than expected in June

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - The Canadian Wholesale Sales data released by Statistics Canada today shows 0.6% growth in June, compared with the May 2.3% rise. Market consensus pointed to a 1.3% increase.

 

 


 

 

Aug 20, 2014

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USD/JPY finds resistance at 103.40

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Extending gains into a third consecutive day, the USD/JPY broke above 103.00 and printed fresh 4-month highs amid broad dollar strength ahead of the FOMC minutes.

 

The USD/JPY climbed to its highest level since early April at 103.39 as the dollar continued to build on yesterday’s housing data-inspired gains. However, the USD/JPY found resistance at the 103.40 zone and pulled back slightly to currently trade around 103.20, recording a 0.29% gain Wednesday.

 

Market attention now turns to the FOMC minutes release scheduled for 18:00 GMT for clues of the Federal Reserve next steps.

 

USD/JPY levels to watch

 

If the USD/JPY manages to break above 103.40, next resistances could be found at 103.75 (Mar 7 high), 104.00 (psychological level) and 104.12 (Apr 4 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 102.88 (Aug 20 low), 102.51 (Aug 19 low) and 102.24 (Aug 18 low).

 

 


 

 

Aug 20, 2014

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FOMC minutes to support a stronger USD - Scotiabank

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Camilla Sutton, strategist at Scotiabank, commented that the Fed minutes are the focus and expected to support a stronger USD as it will refocus markets on diverging interest rate paths.

 

Key Quotes

 

"The Fed minutes are expected to showcase the more hawkish stance of both non‐voting members like Bullard and Lacker and voting members like Plosser and Fisher. Accordingly, the risk is that the focus on the timing of normalization to begin sooner rather than later". 

 

"In addition, the minutes might provide further clues as to the exit plan; but a full reveal of this is more likely to be delivered directly from Chair Yellen".

 

 


 

 

Aug 20, 2014

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Merkel: Europe needs to work on construction flaws

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Speaking at an economic event in Lindau, Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel stressed that to definitively overcome the debt crisis in Europe, EU Member States should tighten their cooperation further.

 

She called for improving the construction of the EU and for making the Eurozone banking system more transparent. She also suggested G20 countries should tighten shadow banking rules. 

 

Furthermore, Merkel stressed that sustainability is the main principle of the German government's decisions on fiscal policy. She pointed to the demographic challenge in Germany as one of the most important to deal with currently in order not to overburden future generations.

 

 


 

 

Aug 20, 2014

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NZD/USD potential downside to 0.82 – ANZ

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Sam Tuck, ANZ Research, expects the pair to head towards 0.82.

 

Key Quotes

 

"Recent events continue to affirm our 24 July trade recommendation to sell NZD/USD targeting 0.82."

 

"Dairy prices have stabilised, but prices have flattened, implying downside risks remain."

 

"Political risks mean the election is not the fait accompli it once was."

 

"ANZ monthly inflation gauge validates markets move to reducing probabilities for RBNZ action."

 

'USD developments remain positive in line with ANZ’s ahead of consensus FOMC March lift off call."

 

 

 


 

 

Aug 21, 2014

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Yellen could address financial bubble concern at Jackson Hole - John Kicklighter Yellen could address financial bubble concern at Jackson Hole - John Kicklighter

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - John Kicklighter, Senior Currency Strategist for FXCM in New York suggests in an interview for FXStreet that Fed head Janet Yellen could speak about the financial bubble woes at the Jackson Hole summit on Friday. 

 

Key quotes

 

"The Fed Chair has made a concerted effort to maintain a dovish leaning status quo through both the FOMC policy meetings and her own press conference outings."

 

"From her perspective, inspiring confidence in the markets is critical."

 

"The central bank is trying to keep interest rates down to support growth, acclimatize the market to a future where normalization will have to take place and attempt to curb a financial bubble."

 

"The rate focus has been consistent and the preparation of a withdrawal of stimulus has grown consistent over the past six months."

 

"The financial bubble concern has only recently found its way into the commentary."

 

"And yet, it can pose a serious problem to the entire effort. I would not be surprised to see the most substantial new ground broken on this topic."

 

 

 


 

 

Aug 21, 2014

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USD/CAD dips to lows around 1.0950

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is now losing the grip vs. its neighbour, dragging the USD/CAD to fresh lows in the boundaries of 1.0950.

 

USD/CAD softer after US docket

 

The selling pressure has accelerated around the USD despite Initial Claims came in a tad better than estimates, dropping to 298K in the week ended on August 15th vs. 300K forecasted and 312K from the previous week. Next of relevance will be the manufacturing PMI tracked by Markit, Existing Home Sales and the Philly Fed manufacturing survey. “Technically, short-term price action is turning a little heavy as our session gets underway but we think the 1.0950/60 area should provide support for USDCAD near-term; the underlying bull trend in funds continues to strengthen and that should limit downside corrective potential for the moment. Below 1.0950 may see the low 1.09s retested but no more”, suggested Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategy at TD Securities.

 

USD/CAD levels to watch

 

At the moment the pair is losing 0.18% at 1.0950 facing the next support at 1.0899 (high Aug.18) ahead of 1.0870 (200-d MA) and finally 1.0861 (low Aug.15). On the upside, a breakout of 1.0986 (high Aug.6) would open the door to1.1007 (high May 2) and then 1.1053 (high Apr.23).

 

 

 


 

 

Aug 21, 2014

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EUR/JPY contained above 137.60

 

 

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The EUR/JPY jumped to 3-week highs at 137.85 overnight, however the pair wasn't able to hold at highs but the rejection was contained at 137.60. 

 

Currently, EUR/JPY is trading at 137.64, up 0.06% on the day, having posted a daily high at 137.87 and low at 137.47. EUR/JPY spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is strongly bullish. 

 

EUR/JPY levels

 

If the pair breaks below 137.60, it will face supports at 137.50, 137.45 and 137.20. On the upside, resistances are at 137.80, 138.00 and 139.00.

 

 

 


 

 

Aug 21, 2014

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Eurozone PMIs signal decelerating but positive growth in August - BNP Paribas

 

 


FXStreet (Łódź) - Frédérique Cerisier, economist at BNP Paribas, suggests that the slowdown in Eurozone PMI to 52.8 in August sends mixed signals regarding the evolution of activity in Q3.

 

Key quotes

 

"In the Eurozone, the composite output PMI index lost in August the whole point it 

gained in July."

 

"It fell to 52.8, a level consistent with GDP growth well above zero recorded in Q2 though, around 0.3%q/q according to Markit."

 

"The surveys suggest that the deceleration in activity was widespread, but significantly larger in industry than in services."

 

"In the latter, the business activity index fell by less than a point and remained at a still comfortable level of 53.5."

 

"In the manufacturing sector, however, the output index, after stabilizing in July, started again to lose substantial ground. It fell by almost two points in August, and, at 50.9, suggests output is hardly increasing in that sector." 

 

"In Germany especially, manufacturing activity and business climate is likely to be badly hit by increasing geopolitical tensions, and especially by sanctions against Russia."

 

 

 

 


 

 

Aug 21, 2014

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EUR/USD finds no inspiration in data

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD barely moved following the latest series of economic data as investors seem unwilling to push the dollar further ahead of Fed Yellen speech tomorrow in Jackson Hole.

 

Data showed Eurozone consumer confidence declined further in August with the index hitting -10 versus -9.0 expected. On the other side of the Atlantic, July existing home sales rose 2.4% versus a fall of 0.4% expected while the Philly Fed manufacturing index rose to 28.0 against 19.2 forecasted. US leading economic index rose to 0.9% versus consensus of 0.6%.

 

The EUR/USD moved a few pips lower before bouncing to fresh daily highs, although the move was tame, with the pair stalling at a high of 1.3280. At time of writing, the EUR/USD is at 1.3275, 0.13% above its opening price.

 

EUR/USD technical outlook

 

“Dollar momentum seems temporarily interrupted, with US indexes at record highs and US 10Y yields above 2.40%, giving high yields a breath”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “Technically however, the pair is far from suggesting a strong upward potential, with the 1 hour chart showing indicators flat above their midlines and price above a still bearish 20 SMA. In the 4 hours chart indicators maintain their bearish slope despite in oversold levels, supporting the shorter term view”.

 

Bednarik locates immediate supports at 1.3250, 1.3210 and 1.3170 while she sees resistances at 1.3300, 1.3330 and 1.3370.

 

 

 

 


 

 

Aug 21, 2014

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GBP/JPY bullish corrective phase in progress - ForexTrading.TV

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Petar Jacimovic, currency analyst at ForexTrading.TV, points out that a GBP/JPY bullish corrective phase is in progress.

 

 

 

 


 

 

Aug 21, 2014

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USD/CAD making steady progress- TD Securities

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - The TD Securities team of analysts expect the USD/CAD to reach 1.1050 in the near-term and then the 1.12 level in the next few weeks.

 

Key quotes

 

"USD/CAD closed firmly Wednesday and made a little more progress overnight to eek out a marginal new cycle high in the upper 1.09s before drifting back."

 

"After working through corporate selling interest in the mid 1.09s, yesterday afternoon’s push up in the USD broadly took funds through important technical resistance at 1.0960 into the close—just. But 'just' might be good enough."

 

"We are still bullish and think the rise through 1.0960 will underpin the broader rebound in USD/CAD that really got under way in late July."

 

"We continue to target 1.1050 near-term but we think 1.12 is reachable in the next few weeks. We target 1.15 in Q1 2015."

 

"Technically, short-term price action is turning a little heavy as our session gets underway but we think the 1.0950/60 area should provide support for USD/CAD near-term; the underlying bull trend in funds continues to strengthen and that should limit downside corrective potential for the moment."

 

"Below 1.0950 may see the low 1.09s retested but no more."

 

 

 

 


 

 

Aug 21, 2014

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USD/JPY pulls back after faltering at 103.95

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Following another rejection ahead of the 104.00 level, the USD/JPY turned south and corrected some of its recent gains.

 

The USD/JPY found resistance once again at the 103.95 area and pulled back, turning intraday negative and hitting a daily low of 103.67 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 103.70, 0.12% below its opening price.

 

With no US data scheduled for today, focus remains on the Jackson Hole symposium where not only Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak today, but also other top central bankers as BoJ Kuroda and ECB Draghi.

 

USD/JPY technical levels

 

As for technical levels, above 103.95/104.00, next resistances could be found at 104.12 (Apr 4 high), 104.32 (76.4% Fibo of 105.44-100.75) and 104.84 (Jan 23 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 103.59 (Aug 21 low), 103.00 (psychological level), 102.88 (Aug 20 low) and 102.51 (Aug 19 low).

 

 

 

 


 

 

Aug 22, 2014

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Risk sentiment in ‘wait-and-see’ ahead of Jackson Hole – Danske Bank

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The risk-on trade remains dormant at the end of the trading week, ahead of the events from the Jackson Hole Symposium, commented Flemming Nielsen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Risk sentiment overall remains positive but the market is gradually going to wait-and-see mode ahead of Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s speech this afternoon”.

 

“Yesterday’s macroeconomic data were mixed. In the US data were better than expected across the board and the housing data particularly continued to suggest that the recovery in the euro area and China remains fragile”.

 

In the US S&P 500 closed at a new record high yesterday and Asian stock markets are mostly higher this morning, taking their lead from the US. In the FX market the USD is taking a breather after the recent sharp appreciation and the major FX crosses have been largely range trading overnight”.

 

“10-year US bonds yields have also declined slightly since market close in Europe yesterday, as the market has turned its attention from the slightly hawkish Fed minutes to Yellen’s speech later today”.

 

“In connection with the official opening of the Jackson Hole central bank conference yesterday, some of Fed’s hawks had the opportunity to express their views”.

 

“Kansas City Fed President Esther George, the conference host, in her opening remarks said broad-based employment gains suggest that the US economy is strong enough to withstand higher interest rates”.

 

“Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, who dissented at the last Fed meeting, said that very easy monetary policy is increasingly risky. Plosser also warned against making wage development the centrepiece of monetary policy, as its relationship with inflation is not strong”.

 

 

 

 


 

 

Aug 22, 2014

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