OctaFX_Farid Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 OctaFX.Com - Please Click Here for OctaFX Financial News Jan 29, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 OctaFX.Com - Euro rises, shares gain as Europe's outlook brightens LONDON (Reuters) - The euro hit a fresh 14-month high and European stocks gained on Friday after economic data raised hopes that the region's downturn has eased, but moves were limited as investors await a U.S. jobs report. Euro zone factories had their best month in nearly a year during January although the currency bloc is likely to remain mired in recession for a few more months, the latest reading of Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed. "Providing there are no further setbacks to the region's debt crisis, these data add to the expectation that the euro zone is on course to return to growth by mid-2013," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at data compiler Markit. The euro hit a high of $1.3657 after the data came out, its highest level since November 2011. The common currency also hit a 33-month high against the yen, rising more than 1 percent to 125.96 yen. The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3) extended its recent gains by 0.4 percent to 1,169.14 points, near a 23-month high after solid rally since the start of the year. London's FTSE 100 (.FTSE), Paris's CAC-40 (.FCHI) and Frankfurt's DAX (.GDAXI) were up between 0.5 and 0.8 percent. Earlier, China's official PMI for January eased to 50.4, missing market expectations for a rise and underscoring the fragility of the recovery from the economy's weakest year since 1999. However, a separate private survey showed that growth in China's giant manufacturing sector hit a two-year high in January as domestic demand strengthened, underlining hopes the nation's economic recovery is slowly gaining momentum. The Chinese data left MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> little changed EURO STRENGTH The euro has risen significantly in recent weeks as the outlook for the 17-nation currency bloc has improved, and also as investors respond to the sharply easier monetary policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan. "The perception is that the ECB is being less supportive and is not providing as much liquidity as the other central banks are," said Andrew Milligan, head of Global Strategy at Standard Life Investments. At the same time liquidity in the European money markets is being affected by quicker-than-expected repayments of crisis loans handed out by the ECB at the height of the bloc's crisis just over a year ago. Banks have another two years to pay back the money if they want, but have taken the opportunity this week to return over a quarter of the 489 billion euros ($663.77 billion) they took in the first of the ECB's two "LTRO" handouts. From now on they can pay back as little or as much of the remaining money as they want each week. After the fast start, analysts are awaiting Friday's details of next week's repayments for clues on whether the pace is likely to continue. Money market rates (EUREON1Y=) have already risen by a quarter of a percentage point since the start the year - the equivalent of a standard ECB interest rate increase - and are likely climb by at least the same amount again if the money continues to drain rapidly from the system. For Europe's struggling countries and the ECB this is not an ideal situation, effectively tightening monetary policy and creating unwanted stress just as economies are showing fragile signs of improvement. JOBS EYED Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls data due at 8:30 a.m. ET could be a another factor to drive the euro higher, as a strong report would knock the safe-haven dollar. The dollar was trading at a 3-1/2 month low against a basket of currencies (.DXY) on Friday after falling 0.3 percent to 78.97 points. Employers are expected to have added 160,000 new jobs to their payrolls in January, a marginal step up from December's 155,000 gain, according to a Reuters survey of economists. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 7.8 percent. The U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the fourth quarter, its weakest performance since emerging from recession in 2009, and it grew just 2.2 percent in the whole of 2012. The U.S. ISM factory survey, a national report on the state of American manufacturers, is also due at 10 a.m. ET. Feb 01, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 Octawelcome free 8 USD bonus TRADE A FREE BONUS AND MAKE REAL PROFIT! Get real money by trading a free bonus! Complete only 2 lots and the profit is all yours for withdrawal. Open a bonus accountOpen a Welcome account today! Get your bonusYou will get a free 8 USD bonus Promotion rules No agent commission is credited for trading on bonus accounts A special welcome account is opened for bonus trading. The bonus cannot be added to any other account type (Micro, ECN or IB) Welcome account conditions are the same as Micro Swap Free account conditions You can not deposit to a welcome account It is required to finish 2 standard lots to withdraw profit from the welcome account So-called "reverse trading" on bonus accounts is strictly prohibited. "Reverse trading" denotes opening the same position in reverse destinations on 2 or more bonus accounts. E.g. open 0.01 lot BUY on EURUSD in one account and 0.01 lot SELL on EURUSD in another at the same time. The Client acknowledges that such accounts will be blocked, and bonuses and profits will be canceled Maximum leverage for non-deposit bonus accounts is 1:500 Minimum and maximum volume for welcome account is 0.01 lot Maximum number of simultaneously open positions is 3 Opening multiple bonus accounts (including those registered for relatives. etc) is prohibited. In case of a partial or complete match of IP address or personal data, or other signs of accounts belonging to the same person, such accounts will be blocked, and bonuses and profits will be canceled A bonus may be cancelled byt the Company anytime. In this case 8 USD will be charged against your account Bonuses can't be canceled by the Client ANY IP match between 2 accounts regardless of trading style, name, email, country, etc. will be considered as multiple bonus accounts. Such accounts will be blocked, and all withdrawals will be rejected Each client can have only one bonus account OctaFX may reject a client's bonus application(s) at anytime without prior notification or providing reasons for such decision OctaFX reserves the right to change, update or cancel this promotion, with notification in the Company news Individuals from certain countries may be restricted from getting bonuses Start Now! Please stay tuned for the news and updates from OctaFX! Wishing you luck and profitable trading, yours truly, OctaFX! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 02, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 WTI trading at $96.64/bbl Crude oil’s near-term consolidative range at the 96.50 zone (50% of 94.95/98.22 upleg) was threatened as the negative near-term structure drives the price lower. According to Slobodan Drvenica, an analyst at Windsor Brokers Ltd., “The upside remains capped at 90.30/50 area, where the 30 January high, along with 23 August 2012 high and Fib 61.8% expansion of the wave from 84.05 lie.” With the 4h indicators entering negative territory, a further retracement could be anticipated. Indeed, a slide below 96.50 is needed to confirm the completion of failure swing and open 96.20/00 (Fib 61.8% / round-figure) mark, ahead of key near-term support at the area of 95.50/00. At the time of writing, WTI crude has settled in the region of USD $96.64 Monday. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 04, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 Forex Flash: Central banks constitute major focus this week – Deutsche Bank A major focus for the week will be on the ECB, BoE (Thursday) and RBA (Tuesday) meetings this week. According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “The market is not expecting a change in policy from the ECB and BoE, although Draghi's post-ECB press conference will be closely watched in light of last week's softer bank lending survey.” On the same day as the ECB and BoE meetings, governor-in-waiting Mark Carney will appear before the UK House of Commons Treasury Committee to be questioned by lawmakers ahead of his formal takeup of the BoE governorship. Carney's recent comments on revising the monetary policy framework will likely be a subject of questioning. With respect to the RBA, 20 out of 27 economists polled by Bloomberg (including DB) expect no change in the overnight cash rate. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 04, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Forex Flash: No reason for a AUD selloff on the RBA decision - Commerzbank Commerzbank analysts consider the RBA statement to be relatively balanced: "It is becoming clear that the RBA will take a wait and see attitude as far as domestic demand is concerned before taking further steps. After all it left the key rate unchanged at 3.0% which corresponds to our expectations", wrote analyst Antje Praefcke, adding that the stamente pointed out that the global outlook has improved, a fact that other central banks have also referred to recently, and there are only moderate changed to the domestic economy part. As growth is slightly below the trend (but past rate cuts are beginning to show some of the expected effects) and inflation remains low, it very much looks as if the RBA wasn’t done yet with its current rate cut cycle but as if it prefers to wait for further data releases before changing rates again. "Easier conditions would in turn make things easier for areas outside the mining sector to fill the gap left by the end of the investment boom in the mining sector", he wrote. "The RBA is clearly hoping for a soft transition in a divided economy: slowly ending investment boom in the mining sector with a simultaneous recovery in other sectors (e.g. manufacturing sector and others) thanks to lower rates", continued the Commerzbank analyst, attentive to what is coming next, but with no reason to sell the AUD massively as a result of the rate decision. "We think 1.0350-80 should hold in AUD-USD", he concluded. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 05, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 In a recent speech to the European Parliament, French President Francois Hollande urged the euro zone to set a mid-term target for the EUR exchange rate In a recent speech to the European Parliament, French President Francois Hollande urged the euro zone to set a mid-term target for the EUR exchange rate and to forge a jobs policy to fight political disillusionment at reforms. Hollande's calls ran into immediate opposition from German Economy minister Roesler who recommended that the focus should instead be on competitiveness rather than weakening the currency. Luxembourg Finance Minister Luc Frieden said the euro's level doesn't concern him at present and its strength follows the economic reality of the euro zone. Staying in Europe, Fitch joined Moody's and S&P in assigning a negative outlook to Netherland's AAA rating. According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “The outlook revision reflects Fitch's concerns over persistent banking system problems – as highlighted by the recent nationalization of SNS Reaal (the country's fourth largest banking group) - and public debt levels higher than those of top-rated peers.” Dutch 10yr yields closed 3bp higher on the day and were largely unmoved following Fitch's announcement. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 06, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Forex: GBP/USD soars as Carney testimony starts GBP/USD has soared closed to a point as in coming BoE Governor Carney is delivering his testimony to the Treasury Select Committee this morning. He has told the group that the bank must exit unconventional policy and protect the integrity of the Pound. He added that the bar to changing monetary policy framework must be very high and central banks should be flexible on targeting inflation. Further, he believes that the BoE must enhance forecasting. The market reaction has seen Cable soar on talk that an end to easing will be targeted and spot is now currently trading at 1.5731, just below the hourly 200 MA, having made a high at 1.5767. RSI has spiked high and climbed to 76. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 07, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Forex: GBP/USD holds up at 1.5700 after UK NIESR GDP Incoming BoE Governor Carney brought the GBP/USD back above the 1.5700 psychological level after triggering a rally from 1.5650 to 1.5769 spike high with his testimony before the UK Parliament. Since then, the pair has been consolidating its position above 1.5700, even after the release of UK NIESR GDP estimate for January. From an estimated -0.3% recession in December, the estimate of growth over the last 3 months in the UK has risen to 0.0% in January, according to NIESR. Incoming BoE Governor Carney assured that he would not alter significantly the central bank's current monetary policy strategy but that he was in favor of introducing more stimulus for a period of time and communicating it in order to help manage market expectations. He also said that the central bank must exit unconventional policy. The MPC decided to keep the key rate at 0.5% and the asset purchases at £375B, as expected by investors, in the meeting of February 7. “The £6.6 billion cash flow comprises the redemption payment on the gilt, as well as the cash flow resulting from the indemnity provided by HM Treasury to the Bank of England in order to cover any difference between the redemption payment and the original amount invested”, said the official statement. “The GBP/USD currency pair continues consolidating near its minimums. I think today the pair may form any type of reversal pattern to start growing up and break the latest descending channel”, wrote Roboforex.com analyst Igor Sayadov. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 07, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Forex Flash: USD/JPY year-end target at 95.00 – Scotiabank The Japanese yen seems to have found intraday support in the boundaries of 93.10 on Thursday, after the ECB has ignited a rally in the safe havens, dragging the cross from levels around 93.70 “The upward trend in USDJPY is too strong to fight and tied into equities. Technicals are not providing any warning signals that the trend is at risk. We hold a year-end USDJPY target of 95, but expect that it could temporarily range as high as 100 before drifting back”, assessed Camilla Sutton, Chief Currency Strategist at Scotiabank. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 07, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Forex Flash: What lies ahead of EUR/USD? – Commerzbank, BTMU and UBS The shared currency has managed to put the ECB meeting in the rear window and is currently posting fresh highs in the proximities of 1.3420, buoyed by the likeliness of an agreement from the European Council on the 2014-2020 Budget. Recalling the last break above the key area of 1.3485/1.3562, Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank commented, “We suspect that this was a false break higher, however key support remains the 1.3125 6 month uptrend and a close below here is required to negate the upmove completely.” In addition, Derek Halpenny, researcher at BTMU, explains “We may finally get an EU budget deal later today with rumours of a deal based on the first real-term budget cut in EU history. That may help stabilise the single currency which is being undermined in part by some renewed liquidation of yen short positions”. The bullish outlook on the cross remains intact, according to Strategists G.Yu and G.Berry at the Swiss UBS, arguing, “The strong support is at 1.3354. While this holds, the risk is for resumption of strength. Resistance is at 1.3578 ahead of 1.3711”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 08, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Forex Flash: NOK/SEK could find downside pressure this week – Danske Bank The pair is retracing earlier gains after posting fresh monthly highs in the proximities of 1.1660 ahead of the Riksbank monetary policy meeting due on February 13. Market consensus still remain pretty divided regarding a rate cut, as late improvement in Swedish data out of the retail sales and manufacturing and services PMI would add further pressure to the Nordic central bank. “We remain hesitant and still believe that a cut in April is more plausible as the Swedish economy in line with the global economy seems to be stabilising. If we are correct that the Riksbank will keep rates unchanged, NOK/SEK should see some downside potential this week”, explained Senior Analyst C.Tuxen at Danske Bank. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 11, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Forex Flash: Energy dependence a reason to be a long term GBP/USD bear – Societe Generale Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale feels that the UK´s energy dependence situation is a good reason for being a long term bear on GBP/USD. However, Juckes sees more supporting factors on the horizon. Firstly, he notes concern expressed by the fed´s Professor Stein about asset bubbles. Fed hawkes are slowly building influence and a policy rethink may still be months away but will be inevitable in the long run. Secondly, he notes the trend in UK inflation which has been above the MPC´s target since 2009. He writes, “UK inflation has been above US inflation since October 2008, and that has a bearing on the real exchange rate too. GBP/USD will track EUR/USD, so Euro resilience will support GBP/USD. The pound still looks undervalued on a fundamental basis relative to the Euro. But despite that, short GBP/USD seems a viable long term trade and a better tactical trade than shorting EUR/USD too early. It’s certainly a good way of expressing the shift in relative energy dependence.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 11, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 Forex: EUR/CHF retraces from highs, around 1.2330 The Swiss franc is trimming earlier gains vs. the single currency on Tuesday, pushing the pair from the boundaries of 1.2280 to the current levels around 1.2330, challenging overnight tops above 1.2340 After a G7 statement regarding the so-called ‘currency war’, Trevor Greetham, Director of Asset Allocation at Fidelity Worldwide Investment, argued, “On one level, this is a slap on the wrist to Japanese ministers talking about specific levels but it allows them to carry on with policies aimed at creating domestic inflation. You could argue the clear FX manipulators out there are the Swiss with the SNB’s Jordan saying today that the Swiss franc’s 1.20 cap against the euro is still in place, the franc will weaken further and they stand ready to take further measures”. At the moment, the cross is posting marginal losses at 1.2332 or 0.02%. Next support levels line up at 1.2255 (lows Feb.8/11) ahead of 1.2200 (psychological level) and then 1.2187 (low Jan.14). On the upside, a break above 1.2356 (high Feb.12) would expose 1.2369 (high Feb.6) and then 1.2505 (high Feb.4). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 12, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 Forex Flash: Credit, CAD, and AUD are all showing signs of valuation fatigue – Societe Generale Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale notes that data wise, there is little on offer this afternoon. He comments that he will sit back and watch equities while waiting for the State of the Union address later this evening and he will be paying especial attention to how credit performs relative to the S&P Index. In particular he notes that Credit, AUD and CAD are all showing signs of valuation fatigue. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 12, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 EMU: Trade surplus unchanged at €12B in December Eurozone Trade surplus s.a. remained unchanged at €12 billion in December, according to data released today by Eurostat. Eurozone trade surplus n.s.a. narrowed to €11.7B in December, from €13.0 billion in November and against expectations of widening slightly to €13.1 billion. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 15, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Forex: GBP/USD trading at 1.5487/88 after failed recovery attempt A recent recovery attempt at the 1.5560 mark was stymied, driving the GBP/USD lower during the late morning of the European session Friday. With weak GBP data leaving a bitter taste in investors mouths, the pair breached support at 1.5500 again, and is now trading at 1.5487/88 at the time of writing, down -0.03%. Earlier today in the United Kingdom, Retail Sales (YoY) were reported at -0.6% In January, against estimates calling for +0.8%. Moreover, Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -0.6% in January, missing expectations of +0.4%. Finally Retail Sales ex-fuel (YoY) grew only +0.2%, against projections of +1.4%. Briefing the technicals, after a movement below calculated support at 1.5500, the ICN.com analyst team points to additional supports at 1.5455 and finally 1.5415. On the positive side, a break above 1.5525 will trigger resistances at 1.5580 and 1.5610. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 15, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Forex Flash: Europe trend growth below "Great Moderation" – Merrill Lynch After running several scenarios (one hypotheses on the speed at which investment recovers and whether it can reach pre-crisis levels; and another taking into account the impact of higher unemployment (and the capacity to reduce it), demographics and the quality of education) and looking at the fundamentals behind an economy’s capacity to grow (investment in physical and human capital, and the ability to innovate and embed innovation into business) and capacity to innovate, the overall result is that the capacity to grow (trend growth) remains below that observed during the “Great Moderation” (1995-07), according to BofA Merrill Lynch analysts. "Having said that, assuming European productivity converges with that of the US, we expect healthy trend growth after 2015", they wrote, pointing to elevated deflation risks, due to steep loss in cyclical production. "Consequently, in our exercise, we assume the negative output gap that opened up in 2008 remains large throughout the crisis period and closes only by end-2014 - an assumption in line with most international organizations’ projections", they continued, expecting inflation to decelerate to end-2014. In case inflation decelerates faster, ECB would likely "need to cut rates further and possibly experiment with more unconventional policies". OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 15, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Forex: USD/CAD rallies after US and Canada data From 1.0025 area, that was serving as resistance during the European morning, the USD/CAD broke through and rallied to as high as 1.0067 on Canada and US data releases. Canada manufacturing shipments fell -3.1% in December, a wider drop than the -0.8% expected. US NY empire state manufacturing came in at 10.08 in February, surprising analysts that were only expecting an improvement from -7.78 to -2.00. Although capacity utilization in the US improved from 78.8% (revised from 79.3%) to 79.1% in January, beating 78.9% consensus, industrial production fell -0.1%, instead of rising 0.2% as expected. Last month's data was revised lower, from 0.4% to 0.3%. MIG Bank analysts expect the USD/CAD to edge lower as it has failed to break its resistance at 1.0100. "The inability to break the resistance area between 1.0057 and 1.0100 could be the start of a medium-term bearish reversal pattern", wrote analyst Bijoy Kar, pointing to an hourly resistance at 1.0044 (13/02/2013 high), while supports can be found at 1.0000 (14/02/2013 low) and 0.9933 (07/02/2013 low). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 15, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 American equity markets in the green Friday following G20 The US Stock market experienced a slightly positive opening Friday, as investors digest the statement of the G20, which has sent the yen plummeting. In the United States, Net Long-term TIC Flows (December) were reported at $64.2B, relative to $54.2B in the previous month. Moreover, Industrial Production (MoM) has contracted -0.1% in January, against expectations for a +0.2% growth. Finally, the Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (February) came in at 76.3, vs. projections of 74.8. Beginning with the indices and composites, the NASDAQ rose +0.09% as it settles in region of 3202.20, up +2.76 points in these moments. In addition, the S&P 500 is trading in positive territory, operating at 1522.88, ascending -1.52 points or +0.13% at the time of writing. Finally, the Dow Jones has moved higher at the opening as well, trading in the zone of 13981.15, presently +0.06% after a movement of +7.76 points. Sectors are all in the green at the opening, however the Energy and Basic Materials sectors have distinguished themselves as the lone losers thus far, falling -0.43% and -0.23% respectively. In other news, the price of crude has settled above USD $94.45 Friday. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 15, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Italian campaign works to swing remaining voters in final week before election Italian voters have braced for the impact of an upcoming onslaught of tax-cut promises and attacks on the European Union as the four leading candidates begin the final stretch of the campaign, taking to airwaves and a mad scramble to visit to all corners of the republic before the polls are opened. After a prolonged period of suspense and campaigning, Italy goes to the polls February. 24-25 in the first parliamentary election since Europe’s sovereign debt crisis roiled the political establishment into a proverbial maelstrom. However, despite the recent buildup, nearly 20% of Italian voters are still fair game to the candidates, which pollsters say constitutes a large enough proportion as to potentially decide the election in the final week. However, the immediate risk is an inconclusive result that denies victory to any and leads to gridlock, requiring a second vote. “The biggest issue is, is it going to be easy to form a government?” wrote Marc Ostwald, a rates strategist at Monument Securities Ltd. in London. Silvio Berlusconi kicks off the week with a rally today in Milan, capital of the battleground region of Lombardy near the Alpine foothills. The former premier will reiterate his pledge to hand out more than $5 billion in property-tax refunds as he seeks to build a blocking minority in the Senate. Berlusconi’s main rival, front-runner, Pier Luigi Bersani may appear on the other end of Italy in Cosenza, Calabria. The duel between Bersani and Berlusconi, whose respective forces have dominated Italian politics since 1994, is muddied by the campaigns of Prime Minister Mario Monti, a professor-turned- politician at age 69, and comedian Beppe Grillo. Monti has sought to position himself as a kingmaker by courting both Bersani and the forces backing Berlusconi. Grillo has excluded alliances and embraced the role of spoiler. Italians face trying times as they are being called to vote with the economy in a quagmire, culminating in its fourth recession since 2001, and having contracted for six quarters through the final three months of last year. However, despite Italy’s 10-year government bond yield, which reached a euro-era record of 7.261% on Nov. 25, 2011, the yields were holding fast at just 4.409% earlier today. The election outcome “remains highly uncertain,” Giada Giani, an economist at Citigroup Inc. wrote in a research report last week. “Small moves in the votes can lead to large swings in the Senate seat allocation.” The upper house of Italy’s parliament is where Bersani, a former communist and labor-union favorite, is most vulnerable as seats are doled out on a regional basis, rendering national popularity less meaningful. Bersani will probably need a post- vote alliance with Monti to secure a majority, a move that would please bond investors satisfied with the premier’s 15-month tenure, according to Citigroup and Eurasia Group. Bersani had 33.8% support in an SWG Institute survey published February 8, the day before Italy’s two-week polling blackout began. That compares with 27.8% for Berlusconi, 18.8% for Grillo and 13.4% for Monti. According to Italian election law, bonus seats are handed out in both the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies, allowing a party to secure a majority without winning 50% of the votes. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 18, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Forex Flash: EUR/USD to target 1.3000 in three-month window – UBS Alongside the current account data, the ECB is also due to release December's portfolio flow data today. The creation of the ECB's OMT program has had a stabilizing effect on sovereign bond markets, which triggered a return of exiled capital in November. In fact portfolio inflows are now much larger than those associated with the current account surplus. We expect this pattern to continue in December as memories of the crisis fade a little further. However, “when netted-off against outflows by Eurozone residents, the portfolio effect on the currency is more muted than it first appears. There has been no repeat of the enormous repatriation seen in Q4 2008, and Eurozone investors were net buyers of overseas assets in November. Also, like the temporary current account surplus, the return of portfolio inflows can only go so far. Ultimately, we expect broad-based dollar strength to come through later this year, taking the EUR/USD back down to 1.3000 in 3m.” writes Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 18, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Forex Flash: What was real Chinese GDP growth in 2012? Stephen Green of Standard Chartered Global research questions whether China´s official GDP announcements are reliable or actual GDP growth is closer to 5.5%. Green begins by commenting that if there was an index for suspicion about China´s official statistics, it would be off the chart. While the global financial crisis added plenty of statistical smog, the issue with Chinese data is not new but scepticism has to be reasonable deployed as some numbers are better than others and the problems vary across different data sets. He notes that headline statistics are particularly important. He writes, “The government has very clear annual GDP targets, and these numbers hit newspaper headlines. We believe the GDP numbers, especially the first prints, are possibly subject to smoothing at times of super-fast or unusually slow growth. We have previously explored various proxies to track the industrial and investment cycle (electricity, freight, diesel, and concrete production, for instance).” Green notes that consumption is trickier to monitor, though he does like “KFC same-store, car and Hong Kong retail sales, to name a few proxies.” Across the board, he notes that the proxies told the same story from Q3-2011 onwards: an economy slowing significantly through to Q3-2012, before those shoots did their green thing in Q4. The official y/y GDP numbers, however, attempt to tell a different story: pretty stable growth. The official q/q numbers suggest that Q3 was actually the strongest quarter in 2012. Questioning why this is the case, he notes that one e hypothesis is that there is a problem with the GDP deflator, i.e., the number that is used to measure overall inflation and that gets us from nominal to real growth. He cites two studies which conclude that service-sector inflation is underestimated within the GDP deflator. Considering Chinese inflation, he feels that it is not too bad, despite still having some obvious issues however. Overall, he notes that growth boomed in 1992 with Deng Xiaoping‟s revival of reform, but then slowed sharply with Zhu Rongji‟s retrenchment policies of the mid-1990s. The economy was further weakened by domestic restructuring and the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997-98. Then, with the state-enterprise reforms of the mid-1990s feeding through, China‟s entry into the WTO in 2001, and strong global growth, China‟s economy took off again in 2001, peaking out in 2007. From that point Green notes that growth has slowed considerably since the height of the stimulus. he writes, “Our guesstimates for the past two years look considerably weaker than the official estimates: our guesstimates for 2011 and 2012 are 7.2% and 5.5%, respectively, compared with the official prints of 9.3% and 7.3%.” He continues to explain that “When we say guesstimates, that is exactly what we mean. We have to use official data to question official data; we do not have access to an independent nationwide assessment of service-sector inflation, and it requires a leap of faith to choose the alternative services series we have.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 18, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Session Recap: USD mixed. Range trading prevails Following a long-weekend in the US, FX markets resumed full volume trading but consolidative moves prevail. Sentiment received a boost in the wake of stellar ZEW survey, but wasn´t strong enough to take EUR/USD out of its recent range. While the pound remains vulnerable amid chatter of a possible UK downgrade, the yen strengthened versus the euro and the dollar. The Aussie rose after the RBA minutes, but Loonie´s weakness persisted, with USD/CAD reaching a 7-month high. Main Headlines in Europe (in chronological order): Commodities Brief – Precious metals hold onto Asian gains amidst modest rise Spanish T-Bill auction results – top end of target Spain meets top end of target at bond auction Germany: ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment rises to 48.2 points in February EMU: ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment climbs more than expected in February EMU: Construction Output declines 1.7% in December French President Hollande -”must give Greece every chance “ European markets cheer positive ZEW survey Rehn proposes loosening deficit targets for distressed Member States Bundesbank’s Weidmann – G20 communique important signal that economic weakness can not be fought with protectionism and currency manipulation. UK unlikely to be downgraded before budget OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 19, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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