Stocks Spike to 2012 Highs on NFP; Euro…Falls?

[akats]

Have spiked higher following NFP. S&P futures are at their highest level since the July high and Dow futures their highest level since December 2007! The divergence between the 2 futures contracts (Dow above 2011 high and S&P below) is consistent with reversal conditions.

USDOLLAR (Ticker: USDOLLAR): Hast tested and held the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the October low and series of November lows from 9665 to 9690. Remember, the probability of a reversal increases with the beginning of a new month. Yesterday’s inside day at support offers a bullish setup (stop under 9687).

EURUSD – Use the first day of the month as an opening range from which to play breakouts. That range is 13218-13025. An upside break targets 13400/50 and a downside break 12875.

 

 

GBPUSD – A clear bearish setup with yesterday’s inside day at the 2nd standard deviation band and resistance from November congestion. A break below 15706 would shift focus to 15635 and 15515.

 

 

AUDUSD – Is trading right at the September and October highs. Again, the first day of the month range (10740-10568) is critical to the larger trend. Price traded above the upper end of the range yesterday but has been unable to extend gains. In any case, the next upside level of interest is late July support at 10900 and a drop under 10568 is needed in order to trigger a bearish bias.

 

 

NZDUSD – Daily RSI is above 77. This is extremely rare and recent instances of this occurring are 1/27, 4/15/11, and then several days in July 2007. The top in July 2007 led to a drop of nearly 1500 pips in 1 month. There is no guarantee of course that this will happen again but the specter of a 15 month head and shoulders top and 5 wave decline from the 2011 high are ‘big picture’ bearish evidence.