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Euro at Multi Year Lows - Where from Here?


akats

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The EURGBP has dropped below channel support and the January low at 8284. I wrote last week that “given the 5th wave interpretation, refrain from getting bearish on a new low. Rather, expect a countertrend rally to develop – resistance would be 8420.” A look at the short term pattern does reveal additional bearish potential but be picky with entries here. Resistance is 8290-8325 and risk on shorts can be kept to 8375. Downside levels of interest are 8220 (short term Fibonacci extension), 8140 (August 2010 low) and 8066 (July 2010 low).

The drop under 12925 strongly suggests that a 12 month triangle is complete. One would expect an extended decline from a consolidation pattern that consumed so much time.” Daily RSI is just below the level that produced the December 2010 bottom and the risk of at least a short term bounce increases with each tick lower. Still, the next objective is not until the 161.8% extension of the decline from 14087-13110, which is at 12230. The first day of the month high (12695) can be used as risk on shorts now and a bounce would be a candidate to short against that level. Resistance is now 12545/65 and 12630.

I am showing a longer term picture to highlight that daily RSI is at a level that could produce a short term bounce but more importantly to highlight that any bounces should be sold. Again, “the EURCAD break below 13400 and trendline that extends off of the 2010 and 2011 lows gives scope to an extended decline towards the 2011 and 2010 lows at 12777 and 12447.” Resistance is 13080-13120 and risk on shorts can be moved to 13235. Trading above there would shift focus to resistance at 13275, and 13360/75.

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  • 1 year later...

Daily Outlook for Tuesday, 24. September 2013: yesterday the euro was trendless, with a weak downward trend can not be dismissed out of hand. The intermediate lows of Thursday and Friday were not reached, but the flag-shaped trading range held. Currently, the euro is back to the intermediate lows from Thursday and Friday. The very short term chart image is to be considered within the neutral range..., the parent remains bullish.

Rate as $ 1.3502

Trend: upward/sideways

Intraday Resistances: 1.3495 / 1.3510 + 1.3528 + 1.3569 + 1.3640 + 1.3711
Intraday Supports: 1.3470 + 1.3452 + 1.3386 / 1.3382 +1.3310 / 1.3325

The bullish flag of the last days should ideally be resolved at the top and EUR/USD should start a new boost. If the currency pair climbs over $ 1.3530, the high should be attacked at $ 1.3569 again. If it manages a sustained break above $ 1.3569, a high for the year continued rally to $ 1.3711 could be initiated. From there it could start a multi-day correction again.

Further pullbacks to $ 1.3470 or the old August high of $ 1.3452 or even slightly below would be harmless. Only below $ 1.3440 a deep pullback to $ 1.3382 must be scheduled.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Daily Outlook for Tuesday, 08. October 2013 : The consolidation of the euro continued yesterday. New trading signals are so far non-existent. But soon it will be a new trend move.

Rate as $ 1.3566

Trend: Sideways

Intraday Resistances: 1.3588 + 1.3650 + 1.3711

Intraday Supports: 1.3542 + 1.3537 +1.3505 + 1.3452

Review : Yesterday, there was little movement in the euro. The value oscillates between major chart brands. An escape attempt on the upper as well as one on the bottom was unsuccessful. In the short term therefore dominates a trading range, the price action in the medium term, the upward trend of the currency pair is intact.

Technical Outlook : On the chart technically relevant brands has therefore changed little. The EMA200 on an hourly basis, yesterday once again demonstrated its supportive effect in evidence and today should also be kept in view. If EUR/USD will fall below the lows around $ 1.3540, losses could face up to $ 1.3500. A recapture of the brand of $ 1.3588 on an hourly closing basis would in turn be seen as positive and paving the way for a continuation of the uptrend could make to $ 1.3646 and also in connection to the first year high to $ 1.3711. The situation comes to a head, therefore, why is shortly to be expected with new trading signals.

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Daily Outlook for Monday, 14. October 2013 : The euro was very volatile on Friday, but the underlying trend is still upwards.

Rate as $ 1.3561

Trend: sideways / up

Intraday Resistances: 1.3582 + 1.3607 + 1.3646

Intraday Supports: 1.3548 + 1.3510 + 1.3484 + 1.3460 / 1.3450

Flashback: EUR/USD on Friday actually managed to jump out of the triangle toward the mark of $ 1.3600, but did not reach it. Rather, it came in the meantime to a strong nightcap south. On an hourly basis, however, held the upper triangle boundary as new support. Currently, there is a further upward thrust. The double bottom in the short-term window and the uptrend on the daily chart are still intact.

Technical Outlook: A base is created for the bulls. A rise above Friday's high of $ 1.3582 would create space to resistance at $ 1.3607. A break above $ 1.3607 should bring us to $ 1.3646. About this brand again there are no significant resistances in the direction of the yearly highs at $ 1.3711. As good support has recently proved the mark of $ 1.3548 . Only including the bottom of education would be compromised and it could again lead to charges in the price zone around $ 1.3510. A sell signal would arise below $ 1.3484 with targets to $ 1.3460 and $ 1.3450.

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  • 1 month later...

ATFX Trading System is available since some months: Have a look at our website!

Daily Outlook for Tuesday, 10. December 2013

Trend: sideways / up

Intraday Resistances: 1.3768 + 1.3786 + 1.3832

Intraday Supports: 1.3738 + 1.3711 + 1.3677 + 1.3646 + 1.3622

Flashback : Yesterday EUR/USD was working further up. The intermediate target at $ 1.3738 has been reached, the daily high was $ 1.3768. Here there was a short-term overshooting. Rising high and low points indicate an intact uptrend on an hourly basis. In the short term a pullback should not be surprising.

Technical Outlook : After the last days at EUR/USD brought handsome profits. Possible consolidation goals are for today's trading at $ 1.3711 and $ 1.3677. Also a clearer deflation down to $ 1.3646 should have investors in mind. If EUR/USD will get above the high of $ 1.3768, it could take directly go to the targets at $ 1.3786 and $ 1.3832. With or without a detour on the bottom a new annual high in December is generally still quite accessible.

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  • 2 years later...

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