asiaforexmentor Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Forex Coach Ezekiel Chew ask: What’s your winning probability? FOREX COACH Ezekiel Chew ask: What’s your Winning Probability? Do you have the answer to this question? If you don’t, then probably you should NOT even trade. It is a very simple question that you should ask yourself before you take every trade. “WHAT IS MY WINNING PROBABILITY FOR THIS TRADE? “ If it is anything lesser than 60%, skip the trade. You see it makes no sense at all for you to take a trade that has lesser than a 60% chance of winning. If it’s lesser than a 50% chance of winning, why even trade? You are bound to lose on that trade right? If it is a 50% chance of winning. You are betting on your luck. That’s gambling, that is NOT trading. If it is a 60% or higher chance of winning. And if you only take trades that have a 60% or higher chance of winning. Where do you think your account size will go? UP of course. Forex Coach Ezekiel Chew ask: What’s your winning probability? Having a 60% and higher winning probability for that trade means you have an edge over the market. You SHOULD consistently take trades that are over 60% chance of winning. But if on occasions where you take a trade that is a 50% chance of winning. You will spoil your entire game and your entire trading plan. That is because you are adding a random variable to your trades. And these random variables will disrupt your account growth. For example: Trader A) Out of 20 trades, he take trades that are only 60% or higher winning probability. Trader Out of 20 trades, he takes 10 trades that are of 60% or higher winning probability and 10 trades of lesser than 60% winning probability. Trader C) Out of 20 trades, he doesn’t care about the winning probability. He just take trades when he likes it or just based on his gut feel. Forex Coach Ezekiel Chew ask: What’s your winning probability? Which trader do you think has a better chance of growing his forex account? Trader A of course! Which trader trades most like you? If you are at trader B or trader C stage, you should stop your trading now. And reflect on this. This vital question is something that you must ask yourself the next time you trade. “What is my winning probability for this trade?” Forex Coach: Ezekiel Chew Asia #1 Forex Mentor from asiaforexmentor.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flybiz08 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Its on the positive side but not so much on the positive angle I guess. I try as mmuch as possible to meet my trading target and when this is done, I do not aspire to make anymore for that time period. Its good that a trader from time to time assess the winning ratio of the trading system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tariq777 Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 The winning probability in forex is of course 50-50 like a head-tail game. We are never sure about movement of a pair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyvoy Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Before opening trade i consider probable risk reward ratio and even if i make equal amount of losing and winning trades i should be in profit, in another strategy where i play for smaller profits and big stop loss i often get winning trades only and hardly those losing few. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tariq777 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 In some conditions of the trading market the situations becomes very similar to gambling, yes the 50-50% situation and I like avoid such ones Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riddick09 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Well, I don't know much of not thinking much of those winning probability although, I'm thinking about the chances or my target profit as well as prioritizing more of the risk management. But its better to know that we have some confidence in our trades or guts that we can win good trades. Its difficult to make analysis therefore its difficult to make winning probability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indieover Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 I don't think that i have a big winning probability for now as I'm still learning in demo trading. So maybe next time I would be able to compute my winning probability. But not for now yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardworks Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 My winning probability is according to the number of successful orders versus lose orders. If i earn consistently, then i keep on trading with the same strategy. If i lose, then i wait for the next right opportunity to enter into the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adnan007 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 It is hard to calculate a winning probability but my winning probability would be approx. 80% as I loose out on very few trades. However, I keep my SL a bit big in case of reversals or false moves which does mean that in case I come across a SL situation, I do loose out some big amounts but the good thing is that the looses are not more then the profits I earn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fari Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 i have been in trading business for so long but i cannot say anything about it. sometimes your winning also turns into your loss. it is completely unpredictable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rizal83 Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 actually to be a winner in forex we should have a level of commitment and discipline are very high because many defeats we experience when trading in because often we change our trading system and do not have a good trading sytem should we develop a trading system to be better and we still do not have a profit target that we set on every trade we Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adnan007 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 actually to be a winner in forex we should have a level of commitment and discipline are very high because many defeats we experience when trading in because often we change our trading system and do not have a good trading sytem should we develop a trading system to be better and we still do not have a profit target that we set on every trade we I do agree with you that many traders fail or have some consistent bad performance as they do not stick to a particular trading system. However, this is not the case with me as I am using my trading system for years and luckily I have had some successful trades with it. The losses do come but its far less then the profits which my trading system brings in for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rizal83 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 just by having a trading system would be better if we have to have a trading system and I'm glad to hear your experiences using the system, such as trading in forex trading is our main goal is to find a good trading system and if we've got the system that makes advantage for us the better we continually improve the trading system of the need to find another trading system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rexway Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Our wining probability all rely on us and the way which the market react is what determind our wining probability with respect to our strategy. Being a forex trader and win is not that easy but the most important thing is that we must try sometime and have some good working strategy for our success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke1 Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 After reading the article about this issue here, it is good to read about the winning probability in the market. Well, basically everything on the Forex market is about 50:50. But in the bad market, it is better for us to skip making the trade. Sometimes the situation in the market is not good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chintu Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 The Winning probability in forex will defer on our experience and knowledge . and if a person is good in forex then he can win for some 70:30 chances and if a person is not so experience with forex then for this kind of traders it is very difficult to earn with forex and there wining chances will be 30:70 chances . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alam3636 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I will not lie, my winning probability is always more than 90% - not because i can rightly predict the moves, but because i do not use stop loss and i do get loss only when i run out of margin otherwise sooner or later i manage to close my trades in profit, believe me i made good profit with this strategy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rexway Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Am not sure that you are saying the truth @alam what do you mean by your wining probability been more than 90% this is not possible at all even the expert traders dont have such wining rate that means if its true then you dont loss in the forex market at all . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke1 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I don't think that i have a big winning probability for now as I'm still learning in demo trading. So maybe next time I would be able to compute my winning probability. But not for now yet. It is a wise thing to know and to see about this here. Well, if we understand we are not a professional trader yet, then we need to understand our capacity now here. We can not reach the good winning probability yet here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PROPENSITY100 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 i think my chances fo gaining from Forex is more than losing because I am able to gain good returns on my investment periodically. Its hard to determine the exact probability of winning on a trade and if we could determine this becoming millionaire would have been a matter of few days. What is important is whether we are earning or losing from Forex over a period of time, say a week or a month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
starwar1508 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Good, but commentsthe profit%, capital should% higher thanthe high, not sure where If you maintain like this new size 3 months, it is called initially confident, less than 3 months, you should consider howyou trade and then learn from experience Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riddick09 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 There's no way to tell or assume for the winning probability. We can't think of that because, there's no use of it only I can think of by doing that is to either lose motivation or to gain confidence but how they are going to have formulate and compute for that winning probability. We can just think now of our trading journal to see the details of our trading overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke1 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 There's no way to tell or assume for the winning probability. We can't think of that because, there's no use of it only I can think of by doing that is to either lose motivation or to gain confidence but how they are going to have formulate and compute for that winning probability. We can just think now of our trading journal to see the details of our trading overall. Well one thing we can see here, this is correct and true here. If we want to realize, there is no exact formula to count our winning probability in forex. If we can count our winning probability precisely here, then it means we can put the correct number in the running price in the moving market here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budado Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I'm expecting 10 to 20% a month profit. But sometimes I go down as low as 5%. But Its really does not matter to me. As long I make profit each month I'm happy. And so far I'm bless with profit of 30% this month and I'm hoping that next month I can earn 10%. Usually when I have big earnings in a month on the next month I have a lower income. But on average I do earn 10%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riddick09 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 This 10-20% is with regards of your trading capital. So, wondering what is the base capital we are pertaining here. Since, it can be vary our probability of earnings by this factor also and also in other factors. It will always change and there's no certainty that it will be same percentage as always. If we have done both the technical and fundamental analysis I guess we will have higher chance of winning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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