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Forex Forecast EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for05 - 09 December 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

•   With a few minor allowances, last week's forecast for EUR/USD can be considered fulfilled. As a reminder, the indicators on H4 predicted a sideways trend, one third of the experts expected the pair to rebound into the 1.0650-1.0700 area, and the remainder referred to the level of 1.0500 as a support level. Graphical analysispointed to the sideways channel in the 1.0500-1.0720 range. The pair did, in fact, end up spending the whole weektraveling eastwards. However, the pair never actually managed to reach the aforementioned support level: this week’s low-point was 50 points higher at 1.0551. However, it entered the resistance zone three times, reaching the level of 1.0690 on Friday;
•   The forecast for GBP/USD was talking about a lateral movement of this pair with a dominant bullish trend. However, it turned out that the "dominant" did not do the bulls justice as a descriptor. From Monday to Wednesday the pair, as expected, was moving sideways, oscillating in the 1.2385-1.2530 range. After that, however the bulls, regaining their strength, made a great stride northwards, and in a matter of hours won 200 points from the bears. As a result, the pair finished the week at the level of 1.2730;
•   Giving the outlook for USD/JPY, we noted that the pair had reached the corridor where it was moving in February-March 2016. Its upper boundary was within 113.80-114.85, whilst the lower boundary was at 110.80. At the same time, resting on the assumption that the pair was overbought, 55% of the experts expected a decline of the pair at least to the level of 111.35. That is exactly what happened. On Monday, the pair went down precisely to the aforementioned support, then turned around and went to the upper boundary of the corridor, stopping at the height of 114.82. Then it rebounded and completed the week’s session in the 113.50 area;
•   USD/CHF. Here, as it often happens, graphical analysis proved to be almost 100 percent accurate, pointing to a sideways trend within the 1.0100-1.0190 range. In fact, the pair kept within the 1.0070-1.0200 range, meaning that the forecast error did not exceed the typical margin of 25-30 points.

Forecast for the Upcoming Week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

• Predicting the future of EUR/USD, the indicators on H4 actively recommend its purchase. D1 indicators, on the other hand, have taken a neutral position. 65% of analysts tend to the view that the pair will again testthe December 2015 low at 1.0510 and will possiblydescend to the March 2015 low of 1.0460. As for graphical analysis, it clarifies that a significant upward rebound to the resistance in the 1.0900 zone may follow. It should be noted that at the time of this forecast’s writing the results of the referendum in Italy are still unknown. It is only natural to assume that these results can make significant adjustments to the determination of euro currency pair rates;
• It is absolutely clear that when predicting the future of GBP/USD almost all indicators point to the growth of the pair, with only a fifth of the oscillators saying that it is overbought. However, the opinion of the majority of experts (65%) and graphical analysis on D1 is diametrically opposite. According to their forecast, the pair must first descend to the level of 1.2510 and then proceed to go even lower to the support at 1.2385 and 1.2300.  The resistance will be in the 1.2865-1.3015 zone;
• USD/JPY. Just as in the GBP/USD case, the indicators suggestpurchasing the pair and the majority of experts (55%) recommend selling it. Graphical analysis seems to provide a compromise view: according to its readings, the pair will continue to fluctuate within the boundaries of the February-March 2016 corridor. In other words, it will first rise again to the upper border of 114.85 and then fall to the level of 110.80;
• Now onto USD/CHF.  Here, 70% of experts, graphical analysis, and 80% of indicators on H4 vote for the fall of the pair at least to the level of 1.0000, or indeed even lower to the 0.9900 vicinity. An alternative point of view is expressed by the remaining 30% of analysts and the indicators on D1: according to them the pair will continue to stay in the side channel in the range 1.0070-1.0200 for some time.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.
 

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THE RULES OF THE PROMOTION

“REBATE OF UP TO 22.5 USD PER LOT!”

1. Rebate is a bonus for trading on accounts of NordFX broker company and it is a return of a part of the spread to the trading account of the Participant. Rebate is calculated in USD depending on the volume of trade turnover of the Participant in the amounts specified in the Table.

 2. Any trader can participate in this promotion. This requires the following:
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5. Rebate is calculated and accrued only for closed trades of the Participant.

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Rebate for AUDUSD pair on Micro account makes $12.8 for 1 lot of trade turnover, i.e. 1.28 points. Thus, if the result of a specific trade (profit or loss) made less than 1.28 points, Rebate for this trade will not be accrued.

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9. IB-partner (introducing broker) 1111059 of NordFX company is an organizer and performer of this Promotion. By his decision, the conditions of the Promotion can be changed unilaterally, to the point of its complete termination.

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The “MT-ECN” account is intended for a broad spectrum of traders who seek to trade with minimal expenses. The quote precision is extended to 5 digits (to 3 digits for JPY pairs). The account is serviced on MT4 and receives quotes directly from ECN Currenex without modifications. We use our own bridge to transfer the order flow to this ECN for excellent speed and quality of order processing. There’re commissions per trade involved, depending on the trading turnover.


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DEPOSIT METHOD on NordFX.com

To deposit funds on the trading account you should:

•     Login to Trader Cabinet.
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Deposit funds on the trading account by following methods:

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    Bank transfers are made within 24 hours from the moment of receipt of funds to the bank account of the Company.

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Forex Forecast EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 19 - 23 December 2016

 

First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which has been almost 100% correct for all four pairs:

 The final forecast for the EUR/USD pair last week was as follows: first a rebound to the resistance at 1.0650 and then a drop to the March 2015 lows in the 1.0460 area. It also suggested a strengthening of the downward trend in the event the US Federal Reserve decided to increase interest rates. This forecast can be considered fulfilled almost completely. At the beginning of the week, as expected, the pair rose to the level of 1.0650 and then made several attempts to break higher, but was unable to overcome the 1.0670 bar. The decision of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, 14th December delivered the expected strengthening of the dollar, and the pair initially fell to the level of 1.0470 and then even lower to 1.0366. The pair reached 1.0449by the end of the week’s session;

 The forecast for GBP/USD stated that the pair would stay in the sideways channel of 1.2550-1.2700 for some time in the beginning of the week. It would then go down to the 1.2400-1.2500 zone. That was what actually ended up happening, allowing for a standard sway of 25 points;

 With regard to USD/JPY, a rather quiet start of the week dominated by slight bullish sentiment was assumed. Then, after the decision of the US Federal Reserve, we assumed a rise to the resistance at 118.70. This prediction proved to be correct,and on Thursday, 15th December, the pair reached a height of 118.66 before proceeding to move sideways, finishing the week in the 117.90 zone; 

 The forecast for USD/CHF has not been disappointing either. According to most experts, graphical analysis, and indicators on H4 and D1, the pair was supposed to revisit the 2015 maximum of 1.0300. That is what it did, even managing to exceed the expectations of the task by reaching a height of 1.0343.

 

Forecast for the Upcoming Week.

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

A few months ago, we published the opinions of a number of experts suggesting that EUR/USD would seek to achieve an exchange rate parity of 1.0000 in the upcoming year (2017). It seems that this forecast is coming true. At least 60% of analysts, 85% of indicators, and graphical analysis on D1 believe that in the near future the pair will continue to fall at least to the 1.0300-1.0350 area. It is worth noting that the pair has fallen so low that, when determining the support level, it is necessary to work not just with the data for the last two years, but also with that from 1997-2003.

An alternative point of view is expressed by the remaining 40% of experts and the numerous oscillators, which indicate that the pair has been oversold. According to their forecast, the pair has reached its local minimum, so in the foreseeable future will be moving in a sideways channel with a Pivot Point of 1.0500; 

With regard to the future of GBP/USD, 60% of experts and the majority of indicators support the continuation of the downward trend, naming the support at 1.2300 as the nearest target. At the same time, graphical analysis clarifies that the pair may stay in a sideways corridor within 1.2360-1.2560 for some more time before the decline. It should be noted, however, that when giving a medium-term forecast, 70% of analysts believe that the pair should sink to the level of 1.2100;

USD/JPY. It is clear that most of the indicators point northwards. However, a third of the oscillators indicates the pair has been overbought. Graphical analysis points to a possible downwards rebound as well, naming 115.45, 114.80 and 113.90 as support levels. As for the experts, 30% of them believe that the pair will grow to a height of 120.00. The majority, though, expect a sideways trend with a Pivot Point of 118.00;

USD/CHF. More than half of the experts believe that the pair will try to gain a foothold above 1.0300, the main resistance being 1.0410. Graphical analysis on D1 and 95% of indicators on D1 and H4 agree with this point of view. The main support is 1.0200, with the next one being at 1.0150.

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

 

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Forex Forecast EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 26-30 December 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

•   Giving the forecast for the EUR/USD pair, 60% of analysts, 85% of indicators, and graphical analysis on D1 pointed out that the pair should continue to fall to the 1.0300-1.0350 area at the very least. That was indeed what happened: on Monday the pair descended drastically and hit 1.0351the next day, shortof the intended target by just 1 point. Evidently deciding that it fulfilled its task, the pair rebounded and returned to the values of the beginning of the week;
•   The forecast for the GBP/USD pair may also be considered fulfilled by at least 90%, if not 100%. Recall that the majority of experts voted for the continuation of the downward trend, naming the support at 1.2300 as the nearest target. This was reached by the pair on Thursday. After this, the support changed roles, becoming resistance. The pair rebounded off it and subsequently fell by 50 points;
•   USD/JPY. Here, one third of oscillators and graphical analysis suggested a possible downwards rebound of the pair. As for the analysts, most foresaw a sideways trend with a Pivot Point at 118.00. The fact that the pair was overbought did indeed push it down at the very start of the week’s session. Then, having rebounded off the level of 116.55 as was expected by the experts, it returned to the 118.00 zone and shifted to a slightly bear-dominated lateral movement of  diminishing amplitude;   
•   USD/CHF. Here, more than half of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, and 95% indicators on H4 and D1, suggested that the pair would try to gain a foothold above the level of 1.0300. However, it seems that the proximity of the Christmas holidays weakened the strength of bulls so significantly, that having reached the height of 1.0320, the pair almost immediately turned around and returned to the values of Monday, where it stayed until the end of the week.

The forecast for the upcoming week - the last one before the New Year:
The market’s major players have already summed up the year, and most analysts have already left for Christmas. Therefore, the forecast for this festive week is based mainly on technical analysis. No major events that could shake the financial markets, are expected in the coming days, and traders can expect a very quiet and relaxing five days ahead. Unless, of course, something extraordinary happens.

•   The medium-term forecast that analysts released last week does not give a clear picture of the future of EUR/USD: 35% of them predict an upward trend, 40% a downward trend, and 25% a side movement. As for technical analysis, graphical analysis on H4, and the vast majority of trend indicators and oscillators, all of them point eastwards. Those on D1, on the other hand, indicate to the south. Based on the above, we can assume that next week the pair will move in a sideways channel in the 1.0350-1.0520 range. As for its further decline, it is necessary to take into account that at present the pair is near the bottom border of the side corridor, which was launched back in February-March 2015, and that any futurestrengthening of the dollar will largely depend on the actions of team of the US President elect, Donald Trump;  
•   In contrast to the European currency, analystsconsider the British pound’s future to be more definite. Thus, in the medium term, 65% of them support a fall in GBP/USD down to the October low of 1.1940, and only 5% expect the pair's growth. 100% of indicators and graphical analysis on D1 agree with the majority of experts. However, on a shorter timeframe- specifically H4 - the forecast for the coming week includes a flat trend in the 1.2215-1.2325 range. The next resistance is at 1.2375;
•   USD/JPY. It is clear that most of the indicators on D1 point northwards, with which their colleagues on H4 disagree, indicating the pair to be oversold. This opinion is shared by graphical analysis on H4, which sketches a decline of the pair to 115.50, followed by a rebound the previous week’s values in the 117.50 zone. As for the graphical analysis on D1, it foresees a lateral channel with support at 116.50 (should that be ruptured the new support will be 115.50) and resistance at 119.00. Here we can mention the upcoming speech of the Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda on Monday, 26 December - that is unlikely to seriously influence the behaviour of this pair;
•   Opinions on the future of USD/CHF tend mostly towards the pair’s growth to the 1.0300-1.0400 area. This point of view is shared not only by three-quarters of analysts, but also by indicators on H4 and D1, as well as by graphical analysis using adaily time-frame. An alternative view is supported by 25% of experts and graphical analysis on H4. In their opinion, the pair should once again test the December low at 1.0000.

The next forecast will be devoted to the events of the first week of January. Dear colleagues, it seems, therefore, that now would be the time to wish you a Happy New Year!

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.
 

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The schedule of trading sessions in NordFX for the New Year holidays

Dear Clients,

please review the schedule of trading sessions for the New Year holidays below:


From 00:00 26.12.2016 to Monday’s opening 02.01.2017, margin call and stop out levels will be increased up to 100% for “Micro,” “Standard”, “1:1000” and “MT-ECN” accounts.

In the absence of stable market liquidity, NordFX reserves the right to increase the spreads for the financial instruments on the quotation lists of “Micro” and “1:1000” accounts, or to stop quoting on specific currency pairs (for any type of account) until the market situation is back to normal.

We’d like to remind you that low liquidity and unpredictable market movements characterize the holiday period. Therefore, NordFX recommends providing sufficient margin for positions that may remain open during the holidays, to prevent automatic liquidation of positions at an undesirable price.

Company NordFX News >>
 

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The schedule of trading sessions in NordFX for the New Year holidays

Dear Clients,

please review the schedule of trading sessions for the New Year holidays below:


From 00:00 26.12.2016 to Monday’s opening 02.01.2017, margin call and stop out levels will be increased up to 100% for “Micro,” “Standard”, “1:1000” and “MT-ECN” accounts.

In the absence of stable market liquidity, NordFX reserves the right to increase the spreads for the financial instruments on the quotation lists of “Micro” and “1:1000” accounts, or to stop quoting on specific currency pairs (for any type of account) until the market situation is back to normal.

We’d like to remind you that low liquidity and unpredictable market movements characterize the holiday period. Therefore, NordFX recommends providing sufficient margin for positions that may remain open during the holidays, to prevent automatic liquidation of positions at an undesirable price.

Company NordFX News >>
 

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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 02-06 January 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

•   We know that "thin" market and low liquidity in the pre New Year's week can work wonders. For the first half of the week the EUR/USD pair, as expected, remained in a slow sideways trend. Then on Wednesday, it slumped 100 points. On Thursday it played back what it lost.Then,the beginning of the Asian session on Friday presented the traders a "New Year" surprise - in just one hour, for no apparent reason, the pair made a sharp leap upwards and hit 1.0655, after which it returned to the levels of support of the second half of November;
  –The forecast for GBP/USD predicted the pair's movement in the side channel in the range of 1.2215-1.2325.1.2375 was identified as the week's high. In general, this forecast proved to be correct - for the whole week the pair oscillated in the range 1.2200-1.2305, and on Friday, breaking through the upper boundary of the corridor, it reached the height of 1.2385;  
•   For USD/JPY, graphical analysis on D1 anticipated the movement of the pair in the channel 116.50-119.00, whilst H4 suggested the channel 115.50-117.50. It turned out that the first was right in determining the local minimum - 116.30, and the latter was right regarding the maximum - 117.80;
•   USD/CHF. Here, 75% of experts, supported by indicators H4 and D1 and technical analysis on the daily time frame, voted for the pair to grow to the 1.0300-1.0400 area. By the middle of the week, it actually did rise to the height of 1.0320. The remaining 25% of experts expected a decline of the pair to the December low at 1.0000, and on Friday, mirror copying the behaviour of EUR/USD, the pair rushed down, reaching the bottom at the level of 1.0059.

Forecast for the upcoming week.
Summing up the opinions of a number of analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

• The consensus of analysts in the first week of the New Year can be called unique - 100% voted for the fall of the EUR/USD and its return to the zone 1.0350-1.04800, Pivot Point at 1.0430. Graphical analysis and oscillators on the D1 agree with such a forecast, indicating that the pair is overbought. As for the graphical analysis on H4, it does not rule out that prior to falling, the pair may attempt to re-test the 1.0655 high of December 30;   
• In the case of GBP/USD, most experts (75%) also expect the movement of the pair southwards - to the October lows in the 1.2080 zone. Indicators and graphical analysis on D1 agree with this version as well. But as for a shorter time frame, H4, the picture is diametrically opposite - in the short term technical analysis points to a possible growth of the pair to the resistance 1.2380 and further - to a height of 1.2500;   
• USD/JPY. The vast majority of indicators (70%) have taken a neutral position. Readings of graphical analysis on H4 can be called neutral as well, they point to a sideways trend in the range of 116.00-118.65 with a predominance of bullish sentiment. 80% of analysts are also on the bulls' side. An alternative view is represented by graphical analysis on D1. According to its readings, the pair must first go down to the 114.75 support and only then rush to the height of 118.65. In case of breaking down, the next support level is at 113.10;
• Most likely, next week the USD/CHF pair will continue to mirror the movement of EUR/USD. That is why 100% of experts predict it to rise to the 1.0220-1.0320 area. As for technical analysis, as it often happens, the indicators on H4 and D1 have occupied opposite positions. Whilst analysis on D1 supports the analysts,on H4, oscillators, trend indicators as well as graphical analysis indicate the pair'sdrive toward the 1.0000 mark.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.