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Generalized Forex Forecast for 22 – 26 August 2016

 

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

 the forecast for EUR/USD reckoned that having rebounded from the support of 1.1100, the pair would go up – to the resistance of 1.1230, and if it was broken through, the pair could heave upwards by further 100 points – up to the level of 1.1330. Considering the backlash, common to the levels of support/resistance on D1, the forecast can be considered as panned out: having bounced off the level of 1.1153, as early as Tuesday the pair broke through the first resistance and consolidated above it. By Thursday it had approached the second resistance, by inertia it slipped past further 35 points, and then it returned to the area, specified by experts, wrapping up the week at the level of 1.1325;

 the forecast for GBP/USD can also be deemed as fulfilled, moreover – 100% fulfilled. As a reminder, the experts and the graphical analysis believed that in the short term the pair would fail torise above the support of 1.2810–1.2850, and when bouncing off it, the pair would go up to the area of 1.3200–1.3250, which virtually happened: the last week’s low - 1.2865, high 1.3185;

 for a couple of weeks there were debates about whether USD/JPY could reach the area of 98.90–100.00 or not. First, most analysts agreed with this scenario, and then their number diminished progressively. And when there were only 20% of experts left, the pair hardly passed the support of 100.86, and went one level down, and, finally, reached the landmark level of 100.00, turning it later into the pivot point;

 USD/CHF – the graphical analysis turned out to be the closest to the truth, reckoning that before reaching the level of 0.9800 the pair would make several attempts to rise above the resistance of 0.9765, after which it would rebound to the support of 0.9700–0.9730. But even this forecast can be deemed as partially fulfilled. Indeed, on Monday within hours the pair tried to break through the area of 0.9765. Actually it failed and went down. But therewith the bears appeared to be so strong, that they could easily jump over the timid resistance of the opponent, and, instead of expected 50 points, the fall made around 200 points.

 

Forecast for the Upcoming Week.

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested : 

• giving forecast for EUR/USD, around 60% of experts, supported by the graphical analysis on Н4, believe that, backing on the support of 1.1300, the pair will try to reach the resistance of 1.1425, after which it will bounce downwards to the area of 1.1200–1.1230. Two options are indicated as alternative viewpoints: the first one is a sideways movement with the pivot point of 1.1300, and the second one – a descending trend from earlier in the week with the same target of 1.1200;

according to both most experts and the graphical analysis as well as indicators on Н4 and D1, the main forecast for GBP/USD for the near future is continuation of a sideways trend, formed after Brexit. Currently the pair is keeping within the central line of this horizontal channel – at 1.3080, and according to the readings of the graphical analysis, its movement northwards, which started last week, will continue. With smooth consolidation, the nearest target for this pair is the resistance of 1.3280, and if it is broken through - 1.3350. The third resistance will be at 1.3500. Alternative viewpoint implies rebounding of the pair from the central line to the lower boundary of the specified channel - 1.2850;

predicting the future of USD/JPY, the readings of many indicators differ: 65% on Н1 vote for Buy, 70% on Н4 - for Sell and 30% for Buy, and 100% on D1 vote for Sell. There is also no consensus among the experts – 50% vote for the pair’s rise, 30% - for its fall, and 20% - for its sideways movement alongside the line of 100.00. The level of 099.00 is indicated as the main support here. The only one, who offers more or less agreed forecast, is the graphical analysis on Н4 иD1 – both imply the pair’s rise to the resistance of 102.00. And only after these goals are met, it will be able to go 300 point lower – to the mark of 099.00;   

as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, 80% of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on Н4, reckon that last week the pair reached its local bottom at 0.9535, after which for a while it will be moving in a sideways channel of 0.9535–0.9640 with the pivot point of 0.9590. Then the pair is expected to move in an uptrend, the first resistance will be at 0.9710, the next - at 0.9800. The target for autumn remains the same - 1.0000.

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

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24 August 2016

 

On August 19 Olympic DemoCup – the contest on demo accounts, which NordFX held in parallel with the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro - was finished. During this Olympic event three sets of awards in team and individual score were drawn. The prize fund made 23 100$.

 

Striving to win NordFX awards, about 2000 traders from almost 100 countries took part in this contest, and the winner was the Russian team. The prize, awarded to the team, made 10 000$. The national team of Ukraine got "silver" and $5000. The representatives of China took the third place, having received $2500 as a prize. The host country of the Olympic Games 2016 – Brazil, took the fourth place.

 

We'd like to congratulate the winners and thank all contestants of our Olympic contest!

 

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More NordFX Company News here.

 

[tifagabe]

24 August 2016

 

On August 19 Olympic DemoCup – the contest on demo accounts, which NordFX held in parallel with the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro - was finished. During this Olympic event three sets of awards in team and individual score were drawn. The prize fund made 23 100$.

 

Striving to win NordFX awards, about 2000 traders from almost 100 countries took part in this contest, and the winner was the Russian team. The prize, awarded to the team, made 10 000$. The national team of Ukraine got "silver" and $5000. The representatives of China took the third place, having received $2500 as a prize. The host country of the Olympic Games 2016 – Brazil, took the fourth place.

 

We'd like to congratulate the winners and thank all contestants of our Olympic contest!

 

See the Winner Olympic DemoCup  here.

 

More NordFX Company News here.

 

[tifagabe]

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Generalized Forex Forecast for 29 August – 02 September 2016

 

First, are view of last week’s forecast, which for all four pairs may be considered if not 100%, but at least 90% fulfilled:

 all three variants of the forecast for EUR/USD, suggested by the experts last week, considered the level of 1.1200 as the ultimate target, which was actually reached on Friday evening, “supported” by the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, having brought hope to investors for the rate hike by the Fed before the end of 2016;

 the forecast for GBP/USD can also be deemed as 100% fulfilled. As a reminder, both the experts and the technical analysis predicted the continuation of a sideways trend, formed after Brexit. Considering smooth consolidation, the resistance of 1.3280 was indicated as the nearest target, which the pair reached last Wednesday, following which it rebounded to the center of the channel, wrapping up the week at the level of 1.3130; 

 predicting the future of USD/JPY, there was no consensus between the experts and the indicators. The only one, who offered more or less agreed forecast, was the graphical analysis on Н4 and D1, insisting on the pair’s rise to the resistance of 102.00, which virtually happened on Friday, when the pair reached the high of 101.94;

 as a reminder, the forecast for USD/CHF reckoned that for a while it would be moving in a sideways channel of 0.9535–0.9640 with the pivot point of 0.9590, then the pair was expected to move in an uptrend with the first target of 0.9710, and the next - 0.9800. Except that the pivot level became the lower boundary of the channel, that forecast turned out to be absolutely correct. During the first half of the week the pair had been moving strictly to the east, after which it went to the north, and by the end of the week it virtually reached the ultimate target, having risen up to the level of 0.9792.

 

Forecast for the Upcoming Week.

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

EUR/USD. After the speech of J. Yellen a “certain uncertainty” crossed the minds of both analysts and indicators’ readings. In other words, one half of experts reckons that the pair will return to the resistance of 1.1365, the other half believes that, for sure, it will try to retest the bottom in the area of 1.1200 again. As for the indicators, the ones on Н4 point to the south, and the ones on D1 predict a sideways trend.It appears that in such a situation the economic data from Europe, which are due to be released on Wednesday, and, especially, NFP data - the key indicator of economic health of the USA, which will be released on Friday, September 2, will have the major impact on the pair’s movement. The forecast for NFP reminds of the month old unfulfilled forecast, and it predicts that this figure will fall from 255Кto 164К–188К;

trying to give a forecast for GBP/USD we can see a variety of opinions similar to EUR/USD. However, the whole diversity of views and readings can be reduced to a certain common denominator, according to which the summer sideways trend should be expected. The level of 1.3000 is indicated as the main support, and the level of 1.3320 – as the main resistance. The next resistance will be at 1.3385. With this, the graphical analysis on both Н4 and D1 warns that fist the pair can go down to the support area, and only then, having rebounded from it, it will surge upwards. The ultimate target here will be the third resistance at 1.3560. As to the forecast for autumn in general, 80% of experts have sided with the bears and they predict a possible decline of the pair to the area of 1.2500–1.2800; 

giving forecast for USD/JPY, we can speak of a consolidation of this pair around the pivot level of 100.80. The resistance will be in the area of 102.20, the support - 099.90. With this, the graphical analysis on D1 points out that the pair will seek the area of 0.9840–0.9880, but it can spend from one week to two weeks to break through the support of 099.90. As for the forecast for the upcoming months, only around 70% of experts, backed by the graphical analysis, reckon that the pair will go up to the area of 105.00–107.00; 

 

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, 100% of analysts, supported by the graphical analysis on H4, expect the pair to move alongside the pivot point of 0.9680 with predominance of bearish trends. The resistance will be at 0.9800, the support – at 0.9640.

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

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Forex Forecast for USD, GBP, JPY and CHF for 05 – 09 September 2016

First, are view of last week’s forecast:

•   as for the forecast for EUR/USD, those 50% of experts, which reckoned that, for sure, the pair would try to retest the bottom in the area of 1.1200, turned out to be right. The indicators on H4, which pointed to the south (where the pair did move early week), as well as the ones on D1, which predicted a sideways trend (on Thursday the pair returned to the figures of Monday), turned out to be right. Diverse data on the USA economy at the end of the week put in pie, and thus the pair started to jig up and down, and eventually it wrapped up the week at the level of 1.1150 – at that very area, where as far back as last June the long-term sideways trend, keeping EUR/USD within the range of 1.0500 – 1.1500, had started;
•   with a small tolerance, the forecast for GBP/USD may be deemed as 100% fulfilled. As anticipated, first the pair went down – to the support of 1.3000, but when 50 points were left to reach it, the pair reversed and by the end of Friday it hit the resistance of 1.3320, specified by the experts, approaching the upper boundary of the sideways trend, alongside which it had been moving during the last two months;
•   giving the forecast for USD/JPY for the week, the analysts indicated the level of 102.20 as the main resistance. As for the pair’s rise to the area of 105.00–107.00, the pair was supposed to spend at least one to two months to do so. However, it seemingly intends to do so much faster. At least, in the past week alone it surged up by 250 points and, having broken through the resistance of 102.20, it reached the high of 104.30;
•   the assumption thatUSD/CHF tended to continue the sideways movement turned out to be correct – it finished the week at the same area, it had started from. As a reminder, during the past few months the analysts reckoned that it would strive to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. The pair made that very attempt once again also last week. However “the shoot to the north” failed to be convincing, and having got over just 85 points, the pair went back to the landmark level of 0.9800.
  

Forecast for the Upcoming Week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

• EUR/USD. The opinions of the analysts still differ – 40% of them believe that the pair will go up – to the resistance of 1.1300. The remaining 60%, backed by the indicators and the graphical analysis on Н4, predict the pair’s fall first to the support of 1.1125 and then down to 1.1070. Afterwards, in their view, for a while the pair will be moving in a horizontal channel of 1.1000 – 1.1160 with the pivot level of 1.1070;      
• clearly, assessing the prospects for GBP/USD, most indicators (75%) point to the north. Asfortheanalysts, wemayoutlinetwoscenarios. According to the first view (held by 80% of experts and the graphical analysis on D1), the pair will try to break through the resistance of 1.3370, and, once this happens, try to reach the highs of July 15 and June 29 - 1.3480 and 1.3530, respectively. As for the remaining 20% of analysts and the graphical analysis on H4, they believe that first the pair should plunge to the pivot level of summer sideways channel in the area of 1.3065. We’ll see which of these scenarios will play out early in the week. Withthis,notethatdata on the EU economy, and in particular, the ECB interest and deposit rates decision, may influence the change of the trend. However the mega-regulator is expected to keep them on hold;
• giving the forecast for USD/JPY, both the experts and the graphical analysis believe that the pair will be able to get over the resistance within 104.00 – 104.50, and it will have to move down to the support of 102.30. With this, the graphical analysis on D1 reckons that during the month the pair can go further down – to the level of 100.90;
• as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecast here has been without any major changes for weeks – a gradual consolidation at the pivot level of 0.9800, which can be clearly seen on D1 and W1 charts. The nearest support will be at the levels of 0.9760 and 0.9735. The resistance will be at 0.9840, 0.9885, 0.9955. With this, if indicators on H4 take a neutral position, then the ones on D1 point up, reflecting the prevalence of bullish trends. The upcoming most significant events worth noting are release of GDP data fromSwitzerland on Tuesday and data on unemployment rate – on Friday.
  

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.
 

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Forex Forecast for USD, GBP, JPY and CHF for 12 – 16 September 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

•   as for the forecast for EUR/USD, those 40% of experts, who believed that the pair would go up to the resistance of 1.1300, which virtually happened, were right. As expected, the ECB interest and deposit rates decision and corresponding commentary from the governor of the mega-regulator turned out to be the key event for it. Eventually, having reached the level of 1.1325 on Thursday, the pair showed impressive volatility, then it reversed and went down, wrapping up the week around the strong level of support/resistance of 1.1230;
•   as a reminder, assessing the prospects for GBP/USD last week, 80% of experts, the graphical analysis on D1 and 75% of indicators pointed to the north, indicating 1.3370 and 1.3480 as the levels of resistance. As expected, as early as Monday the pair reached the first target, rebounded, but in a day it overcame this obstacle and surged further upwards. It failed to reach the high of July 15 - 1.3480 – however even the high of 1.3445 may be considered as the upper boundary of the summer sideways channel. Having reached it, the pair reversed and returned to the levels of the early week;
•   the forecast for USD/JPY reckoned that the pair would fail to get over the resistance in the area of 104.00 – 104.50,and it would have to move down to the support of 102.30. With this, the graphical analysis specified that during the month the pair could go further down – to the level of 100.90. However, data on the USA economy allowed making a breakthrough to the south much earlier – as early as Tuesday, on September 6, the pair literally collapsed, having reached the bottom at the level of 101.20. However later the bulls could pare over half of losses, and by Friday the pair returned to the area of 102.50 – 103.00;
•   if usually USD/CHF shows strong negative correlation with EUR/USD, last week, on top of that, it almost precisely replicated the chart of USD/JPY, simultaneously confirming the forecast for a gradual consolidation at the pivot level of 0.9800. During the whole year the pair has been haunting this level, which happened also this time – it ended the week in the area of 0.9750 – 0.9785.
  

Forecast for the Upcoming Week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

• predicting the future of EUR/USD, the vast majority of experts believe that the ascending channel, which had begun in July, will continue. According to this forecast, for a while the pair can move backing on the support of 1.1200, following which it will go up. The nearest target will be at 1.1420, if it will be broken through - 1.1500. Only one analyst expressed an alternative point of view – in his opinion,in the near future the pair will break through the boundary of the ascending channel and it will go down to the support of 1.1120;
• assessing the prospects for GBP/USD, most indicators tend towards a sideways movement. The experts, backed by the graphical analysis, determine the boundaries of this channel ranging from 1.3200 to 1.3500. With this, lots of news from Great Britain, released on Tuesday, Wednesday and, especially, on Thursday, can influence the acting of the pair. As for the longer term forecast, 75% of analystsalong with the graphical analysis on D1 believe that, for sure, the pair will test the lows of June-July in the area of 1.2750 – 1.2850;   
• giving a forecast for USD/JPY, both experts (65%) and the graphical analysis on ?4 and D1 expect the pair to fall down to the support of 101.20, and then even further down to 99.50. 10% predict a sideways trend, and the remaining 25% insist on the pair’s rise to the area of 103.20 – 104.00;
• as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecast here remains unchanged - a gradual consolidation at the pivot level of 0.9750 – 0.9800. The support will be at the levels of 0.9685 and 0.9580. The resistance will be at 0.9840 and 0.9890.
  

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.
 

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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 19 – 23 September 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

•   giving the forecast for EUR/USD, the vast majority of experts believed that for a while the pair would be moving sideways backing on the support of 1.1200, which was happening during the whole week, up until the middle of Friday. But then, instead of going up, the pair made a breakthrough to the south. Only one analyst predicted such a possible decline, in his opinion, the pair would break through the boundary of the ascending channel and go down to the support of 1.1120, which, however, it failed to reach, having stalled at the level of 1.1150;
•   as expected, last week’s acting of GBP/USD was determined by lots of news from Great Britain. With this, 75% of analysts together with the graphical analysis on D1 predicted the pair’s strong bearish trend striving to keep within the boundaries of summer sideways channel. Which virtually happened, as a result of such a sharp drop, the pair even broke through the central line of this channel and reached the level of 1.3000;
•   predicting the future of USD/JPY, experts split into three camps. Eventually the pair managed to support the opinions of the first, second and third camp. 65% of analysts together with the graphical analysis expected the pair to go down to the support of 101.20, on Tuesday it fell to the level of 101.40. 25% of experts reckoned that the pair would rise to the area of 103.20-104.00, on Thursday it obediently rose to the level of 103.35. And, finally, the remaining 10% of experts expected the pair to move in a sideways trend, eventually, the pair wrapped up the week almost at the same level it had started from – in the area of 102.25-102.60;
•   USD/CHF pair sprang no surprises. As the experts expected, it failed to move away from the pivot point of 0.9800, having ended the week just at that very level.
  

Forecast for the Upcoming Week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

• reasoning about the future of EUR/USD, 35% of experts and 15% of indicators on D1 reckon that the breakout can be false, and the ascending channel, which had started in July, will continue. However the majority of analysts do not agree with such a scenario, they expect the pair to fall further, first – to the level of 1.1100, and then –100 points further down. As for themedium-term forecast, the number of supporters of the pair’s decline makes up to 70%, and the area of 1.0500 – 1.0800 is indicated as the target;
• assessing the prospects for GBP/USD, most indicators (95%) and the technical analysis on D1 insist that the pair will continue falling to the lower boundary of the three-month sideways trend – to 1.2850. As for the experts, their opinions split almost equally into three camps – 35% vote for the fall, 30% - for the rise and 35% - for the sideways trend. The only thing they have in common is that the pair will still be keeping within the range of 1.2850 – 1.3450;
• there is also no consensus among the experts in respect of the forecast for USD/JPY.It is safe to say that Wednesday will be thecore driver for the week trend, when the Interest Rate Decisions of the Bank of Japan and the US Fed and corresponding statements on the monetary policy of these countries will be released. As for the graphical analysis, the one on H4 predicts that for a while the pair will be keeping within 101.70 – 103.25. Following which, according to the readings of indicators on D1, the pair will plunge to the support of 100.50, having rebounded from which it will then surge upwards – to the resistance of 104.30, and if it is broken through, then even further – up to the high of 111.45;  
• the forecast for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF – is still the same – movement alongside the pivot level of 0.9750 – 0.9800. The support will be at the levels of 0.9685 and0.9640, the resistance will be at 0.9885. With this, giving a medium-term forecast, around 60% of experts predict bullish trends and striving of the pair to reach the high of 1.0100.
  

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.
 

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- Payment System : Bank wire transfer, VISA and MasterCard cards, FasaPay, WebMoney, Skrill, Payza, PayWeb, Perfect Money, Neteller, DineroMail, CashU, OKPay.

- Bonus Deposit Program : http://nordfx.com/bonuses.html