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Generalized Forex Forecast for 13 – 17 June 2016

 

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

 making forecast for EUR/USD for the upcoming month, the majority of experts (around 80%) insisted that the pair would go down at least to the level of 1.1100. Eventually, following the speech of the president of the ECB Mario Draghi, the pair did start going south and wrapped up the week in the middle between the level of support of 1.1283 and 1.1200, indicated on the basis of the data, provided by the graphical analysis;  

 ahead of Brexit the volatility of GBP/USD is increasing day by day. As a reminder, last week opinions of analysts were split almost equally – 45% voted for the pair’s rise, 45% - for its fall, and 10% - for the sideways channel and fluctuations around the Pivot Point of 1.4500. As a result, the pair first went up to the specified line, then it reached the mark of 1.4660, in total moving upwards by 300 points in one-and-a-half day, following which it reversed and turned back to the Pivot Point, and then it plunged, breaking through all expected levels of support and eventually dropping by 500 points; 

 and as to the forecast for USD/JPY, it may be considered to be fully fulfilled. All 100% of experts unanimously ruled out the fall of this pair, therewith one half of them voted for its rise, the other half – for its horizontal movement. Eventually, failing to break through the level of support at 106.30, the pair went up by 150 points, and then it returned to the early week marks, identifying the level of 107.00 as the Pivot Point;

 as to the acting of USD/CHF, once again the graphical analysis proved to be right, over a period of several weeks it had been insistently warning of a possible fall of the pair to the support of 0.9500. Eventually the pair almost reached the predetermined target, going down to the level of 0.9577, following which it rebounded and ended the week in the area of 0.9640.

 

Forecast for the Upcoming Week

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested : 

• the medium-term forecast for EUR/USD remains the same – declining to the level of 1.1000 during the month. 70% of experts agree to this scenario. As to its acting in the upcoming week, the experts combined with the graphical analysis on H4 and indicators on D1 predict a sideways movement with a predominance of bearish trends and the support at 1.1210. The graphical analysis on D1 provides an alternative point of view. Even though it also predicts a horizontal trend, according to its opinion the pair should first rise to the high of 1.4440, and only then it should go down to the support of 1.1210, and then even further down – to the level of 1.1135;

as to GBP/USD, the graphical analysis seems to be aware of the approaching Brexit referendum. For at least it refuses to make any forecasts on Н1, Н4, and D1. However, opinions of indicators and experts differ drastically: if 100% of the former point down, then 90% of others reckon that the pair would tend to return to the Pivot Point of 1.4500. Surge upwards to the resistance of 1.4400 is mentioned as the minimum goal; 

surprisingly opinions of experts concerning the future of USD/JPY concurred with both readings of the indicators and graphical analysis. According to their joint decision, the pair will continue moving alongside the Pivot Point of 107.00. The first support will be at 106.50, the second support will be at 105.50, the resistance will be in the areas of 107.50, 107.90 and 108.70;

as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF – the experts identify the level of 0.9550 as the local bottom for this pair, and the graphical analysis reckons that this bottom would be at the level of 0.9600. With this, the attempts of the bulls to return the pair to the zone of 0.9700 – 0.9750 are pointed out. As to the 30-day forecast, the opinions vary: the analysts keep insisting on the pair’s attempts to reach the level of 1.0000, and the graphical analysis suggests that when the pair bounces off the resistance of 0.9750, the pair will go down to the lows of early May in the area of 0.9445.

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

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[radex78]

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[tifagabe]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 20 – 24  June 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

•   making a forecast for EUR/USD, both experts and technical analysis unanimously voted for a sideways trend with a bearish sentiment, which was 100% fulfilled – discrepancy between the levels of the beginning and the end of the week made just around 20 points, therewith the pair tended to go south. The graphical analysis on Н4 pointed to the support of 1.1210, and, having reached this level on Tuesday, the pair bounced off it and moved upwards on Wednesday. The pair succeeded to break through the above-mentioned support only on Thursday and, as predicted by the graphical analysis on D1, the pair quickly reached the bottom at the area of 1.1135, following which it returned to the values of the early week;
•   we couldn’t find any compromise for GBP/USD between the experts and the technical analysis ahead of Brexit. Eventually during the week, the pair drew a chart very similar to the chart of EUR/USD. The only forecast, made and completely panned out, was an increased volatility of the pair, as a result of which a weekly range of its fluctuations exceeded 350 points;
•   as to the forecast for USD/JPY, surprisingly opinions of the analysts coincided with both readings of the indicators and the graphical analysis. According to their consensus the pair should continue moving alongside the pivot point of 107.00. However, on Thursday due to release of the Bank of Japan interest rate decisions the pair easily broke through the support at 105.50 and it sharply plunged, reaching the two-year-old levels;
•   as to the acting of USD/CHF, both the experts and the graphical analysis agreed that the pair reached the local bottom at the area of 0.9550 – 0.9600. The pair really failed to fall below these marks and it wrapped up the week at the level of 0. 9590. As to the striving of the pair to return to the area of 0.9700 – 0.9750, the pair made four such attempts during the week, however it failed to rise above the mark of 0.9686.

Forecast for the Upcoming Week
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

• making forecast for EUR/USD, 60% of experts, backed by 80% of indicators on Н4, reckon that the pair would go up to the zone of 1.1340 – 1.1400. As to the graphical analysis on Н4 and D1 and indicators on a daily interval, they believe that within the next few days the pair won’t rise above 1.1300 and it will move in a sideways channel of 1.1200 – 1.1300. The next support will be at 1.1150;
• as to GBP/USD, it’s virtually impossible to give a holistic forecast ahead of Brexit. As a reminder, a plebiscite among the residents of the Foggy Albion, will be held on Thursday, June 23, and its results will be made public the next day – on Friday, June 24. According to some analysts, if British people vote to leave EU, their national currency may plunge by over 4000 points, down to 1.1000. It is fair to say, that the majority of experts (around 65%) remains optimistic and bullish, though no one indicates any specific growth points. As to the forecast from Monday to Wednesday, according to the readings of the graphical analysis on H4, the pair has a lot of chances to drop to the area of 1.4100;
• the analysts and the graphical analysis agree that the level of 103.40 is the local bottom for USD/JPY. According to their opinion, for some time the pair will be moving in a sideways channel of 103.40 – 105.00, and afterwards it will get over a level and move upwards to the zone of 106.00 – 107.50;
• as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecast remains the same. The experts and the graphical analysis identify the level of 0.9550 as the local bottom for this pair, the resistance will be at 0.9700, the overall sentiment – bearish. But once again, we’d like to remind, that results of Brexit can sufficiently influence not only GBP/USD, but also all other major currency pairs.
  

Roman Butko, NordFX
 

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[tifagabe]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 27 June – 1 July 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

•   all last week’s forecasts were made with the proviso that they would remain in force only before the beginning of the UK referendum. And given that very proviso, the prediction for EUR/USD may be considered as panned out. The majority of both experts and indicators reckoned that the pair would rise to the area of 1.1340 – 1.1400. The level of 1.1200 was referred to as the main support. Eventually, notwithstanding various expectations as to the outcome of the British plebiscite, the pair could keep within the range of 1.1235 – 1.1420. As to Friday, June 24, that day the pair plunged by 500 points, then it retraced a half of the movement – up to the level of 1.1190 and ended the week at the levels of late May – at the area of 1.1100;
•   last week it was virtually impossible to give any holistic forecast for GBP/USD. However, according to the most pessimistic forecasts, if the citizens of the United Kingdom vote to leave the EU, the pair could go down to the mark of 1.1000. However, that didn’t happen, the downswing was impressive – 1790 points just in a few hours. As to the final outcome of the week, the pair stalled at the mark of 1.3675 - the low last seen in early 2009;
•   the forecast for USD/JPY reckoned that pair would be moving in a sideways channel of 103.40 – 105.00, and afterwards it would get over a level and move upwards to the zone of 106.00 – 107.50. That’s exactly what happened – during the first half of the week the pair held onto the range of  103.55 – 105.00, on Thursday it went up to the marks of 105.00 –  106.80, and on Friday, having reacted to the outcome of Brexit, it paused at the level of 102.10 (the pivot point of the first half of 2014);
•   as to USD/CHF pair, its reaction to the outcome of the referendum appeared to be rather mild – it was up less than 150 points from the last week’s  marks, and it kept within the range predicted by the experts.
  

Forecast for the Upcoming Week
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

• making forecast for EUR/USD, 80% of experts, backed by the vast majority of indicators on Н4 and D1, insist that the pair will once again test the last week’s low, trying to go down to the area of 1.0800 – 1.0900. As to the remaining 20% of analysts, they believe that the pair will follow suit of USD/CHF, which after the ‘Black Thursday’ as of 01/15/2015, gradually returned to initial values. Hence they expect EUR/USD to rise to the marks at the area of 1.1350;
• as to GBP/USD, it’s very difficult to predict its future and in the short term it is likely to react emotionally to any statements of newsmakers in respect of the future of Great Britain and Europe. That is why opinions of the analysts are split almost equally: 40% vote for the pair’s rise, 30% - for its fall and 30% - for a sideways trend. As to the technical analysis, 90% of indicators on Н4 and 100% on D1 point down. However, we’d recommend not to be guided by their readings in the current situation;
• as to the future of USD/JPY, 60% of analysts, backed by 100% of indicators, voted for the pair’s fall at least to the landmark level of 100.00, and may be even further – to the bottom at the zone of 097.00 – 098.00. The remaining 40% of experts and the graphical analysis on Н4 express an alternative point of view, they predict that the pair will move within the range of 101.00 – 104.00;
• as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, 70% of experts expect the pair to return to the pivot point of 2015/16 at the level of 0.9800. 85% of indicators on Н4 and 60% on D1 agree to this point of view. With this, the graphical analysis doesn’t rule out that before going north, the pair may drop to the support at 0.9650 – 0.9670. The medium-term forecast for this pair is the same – rise above the level of 1.0000.
  

Roman Butko, NordFX
 

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[tifagabe]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 11 – 15 July  2016

 

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

 as to EUR/USD, the forecast for this pair may be considered as 100% fulfilled. As a reminder, based on the readings of the graphical analysis a sideways trend within the range of 1.1035–1.1180 was indicated as the main scenario. Indeed, the pair was keeping within 1.1028–1.1185 during the entire week, and even Friday release of NFP data couldn’t drive it out of this channel for long. Eventually the pair wrapped up the week at the level of 1.1050;

 making forecast about the future of GBP/USD, the majority of experts tended to believe that during the month the pair should plunge below the level of 1.3000. In contrast, the week review reckoned that the pair would move in a sideways trend with the pivotpointof 1.3300. However the pair couldn’t rise above this level and already during the first half of week hit the monthly target, having moved down to 1.2795,whereafter it changed over to a sideways trend within the range of 1.2870–1.3050;

 predicting the acting of USD/JPY, nearly 70% of analysts, backed by 100% of indicators and the graphical analysis on H4, voted for the pair’s fall to the area of 100.00–101.00, which did happen with 100% accuracy: the area of 100.20 acted as the main support for the pair, 99.98 – as the low of the week;

 USD/CHF – the forecast for this pair reckoned that the pair was highly likely to fluctuate around the pivotpoint of 0.9800 and tend to return to the landmark level of 1.0000. Eventually, the pair soared on the news from the USA, got to the level of 0.9865, and then rebounded, ending the week at the level of 0.9830.

 

Forecast for the Upcoming Week

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested : 

• this time it was easy to sum up opinions of experts and reading of the technical analysis about the future of EUR/USD. 90% of analysts, 100% of indicators and the graphical analysis concur and elaborate that the pair will fall to the low of June 24, the day when the results of Brexit referendum had been announced. Afterwards the pair should transit to a side movement within the range of 1.0900–1.0970. An alternative scenario also provides for a movement in a sideways channel, however a bit more northwards – within the range of 1.0970–1.1050;

as to the future of GBP/USD, it’s clear that opinions of indicators (70%) are south-oriented. 25% of experts also look southwards. However, according to the majority of analysts, supported by the graphical analysis, after bouncing off the bottom in the area of 1.2860, the pair should upswing, where, having reached the resistance of 1.3370, for some time it should keep within the channel of 1.3100–1.3370, and then it will get back to the support of 1.2860;

opinions of analysts on the future of USD/JPY may be averaged to the fact that in the nearest future the pair will follow the scenario of the spring-summer 2014: the level of 101.00 will perform be Pivot Point for it, the first resistance will be in the zone of 102.30, the following one will be 103.50, support levels will be 100.20 and 99.00;

as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecast is  practically unchanged - fluctuations around the pivot point of 0.9850 with prevalence of bullish trends. The nearest resistance level will be at 0.9945, target will be at 1.0000.

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

 

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[tifagabe]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 18 – 22 July  2016

 

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

 as to EUR/USD, the forecast for this pair may be considered only partly fulfilled – the experts reckoned that the pair would move in a sideways channel, but only after its sliding down, as a result of which the level of 1.1050 should act as the resistance zone. However, as the last week showed, it continued to act as the upper boundary of the support area of 1.1025–1.1050, and all attempts to break through it failed. Eventually the pair has been moving  within the range of 1.1025–1.1160 for almost three weeks, which is, obviously, due to the uncertainty around effects of Brexit on Europe;   

 making forecast about the future of GBP/USD, the majority of experts, backed by the graphical analysis, tended to believe that the pair would soar, having rebound from the bottom in the area of 1.2860, where it would reach the resistance of 1.3370 and briefly pause within the range of 1.3100–1.3370. That is just what happened. Then on Thursday under the onslaught of bulls, the pair could go further upwards and reached the level of 1.3480, but by Friday night their pressure weakened and the pair returned into the predetermined range, wrapping up the week at the level of 1.3180;

 and acting of USD/JPY must have come as a big surprise to analysts. The pair was expected to follow the scenario of spring/summer 2014 and move within the ranges, predetermined by the support levels of 100.20 and 99.00 and resistance levels of 102.30 and 103.50. However, having bounced off the support of 100.20, the pair made such a mighty heave, that it literally flew over nearly 600 points, got to the level of 106.320 and at once regained everything it had lost during announcement of Brexit results; 

 USD/CHF – the forecast for this pair can be considered 100% fulfilled. As it was expected, the pair had been fluctuating around the pivotpointof 0.9850. In attempts to return to the zone of 1.0000, it could reach the high of 0.9893, and afterwards it again returned to the pivotpointand ended the week at the level of 0.9820.

 

Forecast for the Upcoming Week

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested : 

• as to EUR/USD, it’s clear that in this case all indicators point to south. However the majority of experts reckon that the pair will continue moving within the range of 1.1025–1.1160. ECB rate decision and speech of Mario Draghi on Thursday can make some adjustments, and thus a certain rise of the pair is possible. Astothegraphicalanalysis, it points out that the pair, following the example of USD/JPY, may well surge upwards, paring losses it had incurred during the referendum in the Foggy Albion. In this case 1.1220, 1.1290 and 1.1410 are deemed as the resistance levels. An alternative scenario, backed by only 25% of analysts for now, suggests that the pair would go down to the low of June 24 at the level of 1.0900;

as to the future of GBP/USD, according to both opinions of analysts and technical analysis, the bearish trend still gets a firm hold of the market. However, in terms of retracement, during the upcoming week the pair has potential to rise to the resistance of 1.3470 (and according to the graphical analysis on H4 even higher – up to 1.3800), following which it will again plunge – first to the support of 1.3100, and then to its historic lows in the area of 1.2800;

opinions of the analysts about the future of USD/JPY may be narrowed down to the point, that last week’s rebound upwards is only a retracement, and that bulls’ strength is almost gone. Eventually, the pair is expected to change over to the sideways movement within 104.50–106.50 (the next resistance will be at 107.80) during the next week. Graphical analysis and indicators agree to this scenario, which both the ones on Н4 andonD1 took a neutral position. Medium-term forecast suggests that the descending trend, started as early as last December, should continue and the pair would retest the level of 99.00;

as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, according to virtually all analysts, supported by the graphical analysis on Н4 and 80% of indicators, the pair will remain bullish and continue moving in an ascending trend. Thenearesttargetwillbeat 0.9950, then at 1.0000. The main support will be at 0.9800, and if will be broken through – 0.9680.

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

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