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Generalized Forex Forecast for 17-21 August 2015

 

First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week : 

most analysts predicted that EUR/USD would drop, and only 19% of them mentioned a continuing upward trend. Experience has shown that the majority opinion isn’t always right – on Monday, the pair started to rise sharply, broke through resistance at 1.1050 and settled down at July’s high of 1.1210;

the situation with GBP/USD was similar. The forecast closest to reality was given only by graphical analysis – contrary to the analysts, it predicted a sideways trend with support at 1.5460 and a drive to break through resistance at 1.5540. This eventually happened, and the resistance level turned into support;

as expected, USD/JPY attempted to reach June’s high right away but only managed to conquer a 125.25 height. Then, in full accordance with the indications of graphical analysis, the pair tumbled down and entered a sideways trend with support around 124.15;

overall, the forecast for USD/CHF can be counted as fulfilled – a sideways trend with a 0.9840 Pivot Point, resistance at 0.9900 and support at 0.9800. The pair moved within this range for the first half of the week, then dropped to the second support around 0.9710 and continued its sideways movement.

 

Forecast for the coming week.

Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on a large variety of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested : 

regarding EUR/USD, 23% of the analysts support a continuation of the upward trend with the target of 1.1280, which is echoed by 56% of the indicators. But 23% of the analysts believe that the pair should descend while 46% of them indicate a sideways trend with a Pivot Point at 1.1110. At the same time, the indicators and graphical analysis point to a possible fall to support at 1.1035 early in the week. The next support will be around 1.0960;

most analysts predict GBP/USD to fall to 1.5550. With this, the indicators and graphical analysis suggest that the pair should first reach 1.5690. The inclined line of support for such rise is clearly visible on the H1 and H4 charts. Graphical analysis on D1 indicates that within the next two weeks the pair will make a few attempts to break support at 1.5550 and, if successful, it will fall to 1.5200. After that, there will be a rebound to 1.5650;

there’s basically unanimity regarding USD/JPY – sideways movement in a 123.75-125.30 corridor with a Pivot Point at 124.60. At the same time, graphical analysis on D1 indicates that one of the pair’s attempts to reach a 126.00 height may be successful. This should happen at the very end of August;

the USD/CHF pair is very likely to continue its upward trend which started in the last decade of June. This ascending corridor is best visible on H4. The pair is currently near its lower boundary of 0.9710, off which it’s expected to bounce up towards 0.9900. After that, USD/CHF may enter a sideways trend with support around 0.9500, as was the case in March-April of this year.

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

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[tifagabe]

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[tifagabe]

Forex Forecast for 24-28 August 2015

Let’s review the forecast for the previous week :

• the EUR/USD pair was predicted to go down to the 1.1035 support at the start of the week, which happened. The pair fell to the said level 18 August. Next day, after a rebound, the pair rose to the set target of 1.1280 where it stayed most of Friday;
• the forecast for GBP/USD also stood. First, the pair reached 1.5690 and then sharply descended to around 1.5550 (1.5560 to be precise). On Tuesday, the predicted bounce towards the top boundary of the ascending trend (1.5690) took place, and the pair finished the week at that very level;
• the sideways trend predicted for USD/JPY lasted only for the first half of the week. However, the USA and China supported the bears, and the pair ended up 250 pips below the level of the start of the week;
• there was a similar situation with USD/CHF. On Wednesday, the bears simply derailed the pair, and only an extremely strong support level of 0.9480 was able to stop that dramatic fall. The pair has been trying to break through this level since spring.

Forecast for the coming week.
Summarizing the opinions of 35 analysts from leading banks and brokerages as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be proposed :

• most analysts believe that once EUR/USD reaches a strong resistance level of 1.1460, it will remain in a sideways trend with support at 1.1150 for some time. An alternative view suggests that EUR/USD will fall to 1.0840 after the current correction. As for the indicators, H1, H4 and D1 all point exclusively upwards. Even W1 shows a sideways trend as a compromise. Graphical analysis on H1, however, insists on the pair’s decline to at least 1.1290 at the start of the week;
• for the GBP/USD pair, 80% of the experts and 85% of the indicators predict a further up trend with a 1.5800 target at the very least. This forecast is supported by graphical analysis on Н4. The H1 timeframe, however, indicates a continuation of the short-term sideways trend within a 1.5650-1.5715 range at the beginning of the week. In case of a downward breakthrough, the key support should be at 1.5550;
• as for USD/JPY, 78% of the experts agree that the pair’s fall will end around 122.00, followed by a bounce all the way to resistance at 124.60. Should the pair break through the 122.00 support level, it can easily go down to 120.20. Graphical analysis seems to indicate a very similar scenario – a short-term descent to around 120.40-121.20, followed by a rebound to 124.60;
• regarding USD/CHF, both experts and graphical analysis propose that the pair’s rise will start from 0.9400 and continue to a 0.9700-0.9750 range. At the same time, graphical analysis doesn’t rule out that the ascent will begin right away on Monday. As for a longer-term forecast for the coming months, USD/CHF may fall to 0.9100, reverse and reach the 1.0000 hallmark after all.

Roman Butko, NordFX
 

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[tifagabe]

Forex Forecast for 31 August - 4 September 2015

The latest significant developments on global markets caused bursts of unexpectedly strong volatility. However, experience shows that everything falls back into place eventually, and forecasts, which initially seemed to be destined for the dustbin of history, actually end up being correct. Last week was just the case :

• almost all indicators predicted that EUR/USD would rise, and the experts forecast a 1.1460 peak. In reality, over the previous week, this peak changed hands between the bulls and the bears several times, thus alternately becoming resistance and support. Defying the analysts’ forecasts at the start of the week, the pair finished the week as they had predicted – around 1.1150, the bottom boundary of the weekly corridor;
• the prediction of GBP/USD’s continuing upward trend towards 1.5800 proved correct. Having tested this level on Monday and Tuesday, GBP/USD rebounded towards the bottom boundary of the said corridor and, after several attempts to break through it on Wednesday, plunged below the key support level. The pair spent just a few hours around 1.5550 and then reached this July’s low;
• the behavior of USD/JPY on Monday, 24 August, was reminiscent of a kamikaze pilot. As expected, the pair descended to 120.20 smoothly but then within just one hour (!) it dropped by almost 400 points, reaching January’s low. As the experts predicted, the fall was short-lived, and the pair regained 550 points upwards very soon;
• the USD/CHF pair once again demonstrated an inverse correlation with EUR/USD. As a result, USD/CHF was short of the predicted level of 0.9700 by a meager 30 points.

Forecast for the upcoming week.
Summarizing the opinions of 35 analysts from the world’s leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward :

• most analysts and indicators agree that this week’s Pivot Point for EUR/USD will be at 1.1200. Meanwhile, graphical analysis on H4 suggests that the pair will rise to 1.2550 at the start of the week before falling to 1.1000. After that, its fluctuations should be confined to a 1.1000-1.1150 range. An alternative point of view, supported by graphical analysis on H1 and 25% of the experts, suggests that the initial rise will be much larger, perhaps even to 1.1480;
• at the start of the week, the GBP/USD pair may test the low within a 1.5330-1.5350 range a few times. After that, according to 65% of the experts and graphical analysis, the pair should rise and regain the bulk of its losses sustained last week. The resistance levels are 1.5550 and 1.5640;  
• in their forecasts for USD/JPY, 45% of the analysts and 71% of the indicators suggest that the bulls will be very active and push the pair up to 123.30. As a result, the pair should reach at least 122.20-122.50 which will become the resistance level for an ensuing sideways trend. The main support will be at 119.50, with the next level at 118.00;
• all indicators on H1, H4 and D1 show a rise for USD/CHF. The forecasts of the experts and graphical analysis are split about 50/50. For instance, graphical analysis on Н4 suggests that the pair should fall to support around 0.9390 at the start of the week and only then rebound upwards to resistance at 0.9560. Analysis on D1, on the other hand, indicates that during the week, USD/CHF should rise steadily to 0.9900 and further to 1.0000 in September.

Roman Butko, NordFX
 

[tifagabe]

NordFX offers feedback comunication via live chat, phone support, and email support. It is available in several languages, and therefore it is also offered around the clock, while the markets are open.

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[Stekin]

I really doubt if there will be any particular broker that wouldn't offer support in real time. That said, there are so many broker one can trade with and still make something good from them provided they are ready to work things out and also have a good knowledge of the way to make things work out for them too. That means the most important thing is that of knowledge.

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Cepat. Kedekatan VPS Fozzy dan server perdagangan NordFX menyediakan kecepatan transfer data yang sangat baik yang kurang dari 1 milidetik. Ini adalah 200 kali lebih cepat daripada tingkat pertukaran data antara server NordFX dan PC Anda.

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[tifagabe]

Forex Forecast for 7-11 September 2015

Let’s review last week’s predictions :

• the forecast for EUR/USD was fulfilled by at least 95%.  As predicted, the pair spent the week revolving around the Pivot Point at 1.1200.  In accordance with the indications of graphical analysis, the pair went up at the start of the week and then made a U-turn. However, the pair’s volatility was weaker than assumed;
• pursuant to the forecast, GBP/USD tested the minimum level around 1.5330-1.5350 several times at the beginning of the week. The testing was so successful that, after breaching support and defying the analysts’ expectations, the pair descended even more to the low of 1 June;  
• in the forecasts about USD/JPY, 45% of the analysts and 71% of the indicators predicted the bulls to have the upper hand but that turned out to be incorrect. Already by 1 September, the pair reached the first support level, entered into a sideways trend and, having breached support at 119.50, continued downwards at the end of the week;
• as for USD/CHF, the indicators staunchly supporting the pair’s rise were right. So were 50% of the experts and graphical analysis on D1, although the pair’s growth wasn’t as rapid as the latter had predicted.
  

Forecast for the coming week.
Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on a large variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be proposed :

• most analysts’ expectation for EUR/USD is a sideways trend with the main support around 1.0925. At the same time, 18% of the experts say that this support may be broken through and the pair may fall to 1.0812. The indicators on H5 and D1 confirm the bears’ advantage while graphical analysis doesn’t rule out that the pair will be able to maintain its sideways trend with a 1.1140 Pivot Point for some time;
• the indicators on all main timeframes and graphical analysis on H1 and H4 show that GBP/USD will fall further to 1.5100. However, considering that the pair is currently at the bottom boundary of a descending corridor, there may be a rebound towards the corridor’s upper boundary of 1.5225-1.5255 first. If it’s broken, the pair could start moving upward and return to around 1.5325;
• it goes without saying that all the indicators foresee a continuing descent for USD/JPY. Graphical analysis, on the contrary, suggests that the pair has already reached a strong enough support level and a rebound to at least 119.80 (forecast on Н1) or even higher to 120.50 (forecast on Н4) could follow shortly. The opinions of 83% of the experts add that USD/JPY will be moving along the ascending corridor and rather quickly return to 123.00. The main support level will be around 118.40;  
• as for USD/CHF, 74% of the indicators, 100% of the experts and graphical analysis insist on the pair’s rise in its efforts to achieve the 1.0000 landmark in the next few weeks. Such unanimity is definitely a cause for concern, especially taking into account what the pair has done for the past 14 days. The key support this week will be at 0.9680. If it’s broken, the bears will take over once again and the coveted peak will be out of reach for a while.
  

Roman Butko, NordFX
 

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Forex Forecast for 14-18 September 2015

First, a few words about last week’s forecast :

• the two-week-old prediction about EUR/USD’s upward drive panned out. In line with the forecast made seven days ago, the pair tried to hold in its sideways trend for some time but then the bulls got a distinct advantage and, instead of falling, the pair shot upwards, first turning the 1.1140 Pivot Point into support and then leaving it far behind altogether;
• a possible scenario for GBP/USD was a bounce to the upper boundary of the descending corridor, breaking through it and rising to around 1.5325, which actually happened. The surge was so big that the indicated level turned into support. The pair bounced off it and went further up on Wednesday;
• the forecast for USD/JPY was fulfilled 100%. After rebounding from the bottom boundary of the three-week-old horizontal corridor, the pair immediately went up and finished the five days exactly where expected – around 120.50;
• both indicators and experts turned out to be correct about USD/CHF’s upward strive.  The key support level was set at 0.9680. While leaning on it, the pair managed to reach 0.9820 twice mid-week, after which it returned to its initial position.
  

Forecast for the coming week.
Summarizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said :

• it appears impossible to make a clear forecast about EUR/USD this week. Thus, 45% of the analysts, the indicators on H4 and D1 and graphical analysis on H1 insist on the pair’s further rise at least to strong resistance around 1.1450. The remaining 55% of the experts predict a fall to 1.1100 or even lower to 1.1000. It looks like next week one of these scenarios will play out – either the pair rises to the mentioned level of resistance and rebounds downwards, or it just falls. The start of the week is most likely to unveil which scenario will come true;
• a similar scenario can be foreseen for the GBP/USD pair. According to 60% of the analysts and graphical analysis on all the main timeframes, a 1.5480-1.5500 range will present very strong resistance and GBP/USD won’t be able to overcome it despite all its efforts. Therefore, in the next few days, the pair is expected to fall to 1.5335, then rebound to 1.5420 and finally reach last week’s low around 1.5170. An alternative point of view suggests a continuation of the ascending corridor and the pair’s rise to 1.5680;
• the indicators and 66% of the experts predict that USD/JPY will stay in its 3-week-old sideways trend with fluctuations around a 120.60 Pivot Point. Graphical analysis on H1, H4 and D1 doesn’t offer any forecasts, which confirms the prediction of the sideways movement. The main support will be around 118.60, with resistance around 121.40. However, 34% of the analysts point out that the pair may return to the area above 123.00;
• most analysts, indicators and graphical analysis on D1 continue to insist on the pair’s drive to reach the landmark of 1.0000. The nearest target is to consolidate in a 0.9800-0.9900 range. As before, support will be around 0.9680, with the next level 100 points lower.
  

Roman Butko, NordFX