Stan NordFX Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 07 - 11, 2022 EUR/USD: Another Surprise, from the ECB This Time It's hard to resist when you're attacked from both sides. The dollar received two powerful blows last week: one from the Bank of England, the second from the ECB, and could not resist them. The USD DXY index flew down. While it was at the level of 97.36 on January 28, it dropped to 95.14 on February 04. This is not a knockout of course, but a knockdown from which it will be difficult for the US currency to recover quickly. So, the Bank of England raised the interest rate by another 25 basis points (bp) to 0.50%, which was expected. But what shocked the markets was a shift in the direction of the ECB's monetary policy. The market was waiting for the regulator to start discussing such changes towards the end of the year. But it turned out that this could happen much earlier. Maybe already in the spring. The data on unemployment in the Eurozone exceeded all wildest expectations: its level fell to 7.0%. But this is not all either. The growth of consumer prices in January accelerated from 5% to 5.1% and renewed its historical high. This is despite the fact that many expected the opposite. For example, Bloomberg experts predicted a slowdown in inflation to 4.4%. It is known that unemployment and inflation are the main factors that determine the monetary policy of regulators in the current environment. And if the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, stated until recently that her bank would not copy the actions of the Fed, she was forced to admit at a press conference on Thursday, February 03 that "the situation has really changed." “Inflation is likely to remain high longer than initially expected,” said Ms Lagarde. “Compared to our December estimates, current inflation risks are biased upwards. especially in the short term”. The head of the ECB did not repeat the mantra about the “extremely low probability” of a rate hike in 2022. And, although the key rate remained unchanged at 0% at the last meeting, it became known from informed sources that the bank's officials are already discussing the possibility of raising it at the end of this year. According to some experts, it could rise by as much as 40 or even 50 bp. So, apparently, the European regulator is abandoning the policy of patience and, together with the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, joins the "hawk" race to tighten monetary policy. It is appropriate to draw an analogy between Christine Lagarde's current statement and what her American colleague Jerome Powell said in June 2021. The head of the Fed said something similar then, after which the dollar began to sharply gain strength and won 1135 points back from the euro, lowering the EUR/USD pair from 1.2255 to 1.1120. Now it seems that it is time for the euro to recoup its losses. In addition to the frontal blows from the Bank of England and the ECB, the US currency also received backstabs from the “native” Fed. At least six representatives of the US Central bank made comments last week, and none of them mentioned that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) could immediately raise rates by 50 bp at its meeting in March (although the market was waiting for this). The result of all the events of the week, so painful for the dollar, was an impressive strengthening of the European currency. The EUR/USD pair has shown an active growth, which has not been seen since the beginning of the pandemic: it rose by 343 points in a week, from 1.1140 to 1.1483. True, the dollar was slightly supported by statistics from the US at the very end of the working week, on Friday, February 04. Such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created outside agriculture (non-farm payrolls) was fixed at 467K, while the market expected it to fall to 150K. As a result, the dollar strengthened slightly, and the pair set the last chord at 1.1453. Most of the indicators on D1 turned up by the end of the five-day period. Among the trend ones, there were 85% of them (15% are still colored red), among the oscillators - 80%, the remaining 20% took a neutral position. Among the experts, opinions are divided almost evenly, although the bulls have still got a slight advantage: 45% are in favor of continuing the uptrend, 35% are for moving down and 20% are for the sideways trend. The nearest resistance is the highs of January 13 and February 04 in the zone of 1.1480, followed by 1.1525, 1.1560 and 1.1625. Supports are in zones and at levels 1.1365-1.1385, 1.1275, 1.1220, 1.1185 and Jan 28 low 1.1120. As for the events of the upcoming week, the most important of them are related to inflation and will concern the consumer market. So, the values of the US Consumer Price Index (excluding food products and energy carriers) will become known on Thursday, February 10, and the values of the Harmonized Consumer Price Index of Germany and the Consumer Confidence Index of the University of Michigan USA will be published on Friday, February 11. GBP/USD: The Bank of England: Not a Dove Yet, No Longer a Hawk Of course, the general weakening of the dollar affected the GBP/USD pair as well, which recorded the weekly high at 1.3627. However, as mentioned above, the increase in the interest rate by the Bank of England did not come as a surprise to anyone and had already taken into account by the market in quotations. In contrast to the statement of the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, which produced the effect of a bombshell. As a result, the European currency gained a significant advantage over the British one, and the EUR/GBP pair rose by more than 2.2%, from 0.82843 to 0.84650. As for GBP/USD, it finished well below the local high, at 1.3528 for the same reason. The bulls on the pound were also disappointed by disagreements among members of the Bank of England committee. Only 4 out of 9 voted to raise the rate by 50 bps. The majority, including the head of the bank, Andrew Bailey, decided to raise rates by only 25 basis points, citing a slowdown in economic growth. This regulator will apparently continue to act in an extremely balanced manner, which was confirmed by the chief economist of the Bank of England, Hugh Pill. He said in an interview with Reuters that the bank expects "further moderate tightening in the coming months if everything goes as planned" and that "you need to be careful in setting the rate level." Strategists at Japan's MUFG Bank say this sneaky stance limits the prospects for a stronger British currency. MUFG does not expect a steady growth of the pound and believes that if the movement of GBP/USD to 1.4000 continues, the pair will encounter many pits and bumps along the way. And their colleagues from Scotiabank look in the opposite direction at all. In their opinion, due to the inability to gain a foothold above 1.3600, the British currency is now at risk of falling to 1.3400 initially and possibly to 1.3200 in a relatively short term. The majority of experts (55%) are still set for further growth of the GBP/USD pair at the moment, the remaining 45% have taken the opposite position. The indicators on D1 look like this: 45% of oscillators point north, 10% point south, the remaining 45% remain neutral. Among trend indicators, 40% look up, 60% look down. Supports are located at 1.3500, 1.3425, 1.3365, next strong support is 100 pips lower. Levels and resistance zones: 1.3570-1.3600, 1.3640, 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3835 and 1.3900. Highlights of the coming week include a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Thursday, February 10, and the release of UK GDP and industrial production data on Friday, February 11. USD/JPY: Calm, and Calm Again While most G10 Central banks are either raising rates or becoming more aggressive (like the ECB), the BOJ's slogan is still "calm and calm again". Safe haven should remain as quiet as possible with its perpetually negative (minus 0.1%) interest rate. It is already clear that, since inflation in Japan does not show signs of approaching the target level of 2% set by the Japanese regulator, its actions will lag behind the actions of other Central banks. And this, according to analysts at CIBC Capital Markets, will continue to put pressure on the yen. At some point, rumors began circulating in the market that the Bank of Japan could move to normalize its monetary policy this year. However, the Bank's statement released after the January meeting made it clear that this is nothing more than speculation. Since central bank Governor Haruhiko Kuroda keeps saying that it is far from reaching the inflation target of 2.0%, his organization is quite comfortable with the weak yen. What has been happening to the USD/JPY pair over the past four months can be considered a sideways trend with a predominance of bullish sentiment. So the general weakening of the dollar practically did not help the Japanese currency last week: having fallen on February 02 to the level of 114.14, the pair returned to the same place where it started, to the zone of 115.20, by the end of the week. At the time of writing, the majority of experts (55%) expect the USD/JPY pair to continue moving towards a multi-year high of 116.35, recorded on January 04. The remaining 45% believe that the weakened dollar will still put downward pressure on it. All 100% of the indicators are green, although 15% of the oscillators give signals of the pair being overbought. Support levels and zones are 115.00, 114.55-114.80, 114.15, 113.75, 113.45, 113.20, 112.55 and 112.70. The nearest resistance zone is 115.50-115.70, the nearest serious target of the bulls is a new five-year high at 116.35. No serious macroeconomic statistics from Japan are expected either last or next week. We only note that Friday, February 11 is a day off in Japan. The country celebrates Kenko Kinen No Hi, the National Foundation Day. It is believed that the first emperor of Japan, Jimmu, ascended the throne on this day in 660 BC and founded the Imperial Dynasty of Japan and the State of Japan. CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Who Is in Charge in the BTC/USD Pair? Answer: US Federal Reserve Whatever crypto enthusiasts say, bitcoin has long ceased to be an independent asset. And the decisive factor intheBTC/USD pair is the dollar. And the strength or weakness of the US currency depends, in turn, on the policy of the US Federal Reserve (and partly on the actions of other Central banks). The same crypto enthusiasts crave an inflow of funds from institutional investors like manna from heaven. And the latter are waiting for the regulators to establish clear rules governing the work with digital assets. Therefore, the movement of quotes of leading cryptocurrencies will depend (and already depends) not on the mood of millions of small players, but on the mood of just a few governments and Central banks. Just look at the correlation between the cryptocurrency and stock markets. This link is becoming more and more rigid and is determined by the risk sentiment of large investors. Of course, short-term fluctuations in BTC/USD can be affected by events such as bad weather that has suspended miners in Texas. But the main trends are set not by them, but by the actions of regulators. Bitcoin is now perceived as a "money commodity". Analysts of Fidelity Digital Assets came to this conclusion, calling the first cryptocurrency not only a technology, but also a perfect form of money. And what kind of government will allow the flow of "perfect" money to pass it by? And there may be two solutions: either to ban them completely, as in China, or to take them under strict control. The Central Bank of Russia wanted to follow the Chinese version. But Russia's President Vladimir Putin supported the proposal of the Ministry of Finance not to ban, but to regulate the cryptocurrency market, including their circulation and mining. This is a very serious decision, because, according to Bloomberg, residents of Russia possess a huge number of digital assets worth about $214 billion. In addition, according to the University of Cambridge, Russia became the third country in the world in bitcoin mining (11.23%) in the summer of 2021, after the USA (35.4%) and Kazakhstan (18.1%), where many miners migrated after the ban in China. MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor also believes that the current problems in the cryptocurrency market are caused, first of all, by the non-transparent regulation and regulatory uncertainty of the crypto industry. According to Saylor, many institutional investors are now tracking bitcoin, however, they are in no hurry to invest in it. According to JPMorgan analysts, the persistence of high volatility, which limits the adoption of bitcoin by institutions, is also an obstacle. Interestingly, analysts at another major investment bank, Goldman Sachs, agree that cryptocurrencies are unlikely to escape the influence of macroeconomic forces, such as the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. However, they believe that the mass adoption of cryptocurrency may not improve, but, on the contrary, worsen the chances for its long-term growth. Experts argue that the global popularity of digital assets will further increase their correlation with the traditional ones. This, in turn, will reduce the volatility of cryptocurrencies and reduce both their speculative attractiveness and their advantages as a diversifying asset in investor portfolios. As for the current situation, despite a solid bounce off its 90-day low of $32,950, the main cryptocurrency has been unable to overcome the strong resistance in the $38,000-39,000 zone for a long time. However, the BTC/USD pair went on a breakthrough and reached $40,880 at the time of writing the review, on the evening of Friday, February 04. The total market capitalization for the week has grown slightly: $1.85 trillion compared to $1.70 trillion seven days ago, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has deepened even more into the zone of Extreme Fear, falling from 24 to 20 points. The latest JPMorgan report notes that “open interest in futures and the volume of exchange balances indicate less panic or liquidation of positions than in last May, especially in relation to large crypto investors”. At the same time, the bank’s specialists do not exclude a further decrease in bitcoin quotes, even in the absence of signs of capitulation of buyers. They seriously lowered the fair value of the first cryptocurrency from $150,000 to $38,000. According to Business Insider, JPMorgan's model assumed that bitcoin's volatility would converge with gold's volatility and equalize their shares in investment portfolios. Now, the bank’s analysts have acknowledged that their previous forecast that the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio would drop to around 2/1 by the end of 2022 proved to be unrealistic, leading to the downgrade. Peter Brandt, a well-known Wall Street trader with 45 years of experience, notes that most crypto enthusiasts are now in an extremely bearish mood. Most of the participants in the Laser Eyes flash mob are confident that the price of bitcoin will fall below $30,000 in the near future. According to the expert, this may be a signal to buy the first cryptocurrency. “When the bulls wear laser eyes, it’s time to sell. When bulls turn bears, is it time to buy?” Brandt asks. Recall that the “Laser Eyes” flash mob started on Twitter in February 2021, when bitcoin reached a local high of $58,300. After that, many supporters of the first cryptocurrency, in anticipation of its growth to $100,000, posted photos with “laser eyes” as their profile avatar. Co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Anthony Pompliano, TV presenter Max Kaiser, CEO of Binance crypto exchange Changpeng Zhao, Tesla CEO Elon Musk and other influencers were among the participants in the flash mob. However, instead of rising to $100,000, the flagship cryptocurrency collapsed to $29,000 by June. So, Peter Brand's current remark about "laser eyes" in bears clearly deserves attention. It is also worth paying close attention to the results of the round table organized by the Finder analytical website. The discussion was attended by 33 fintech experts, half of whom do not expect the cryptocurrency price to fall even against the backdrop of the upcoming increase in US interest rates. The average forecast given by the participants of the table says that bitcoin could soar to a high of $93,717 this year and is expected to be worth $76,360 by the end of 2022 and close to $193,000 by the end of 2025. Vanessa Harris, director of the cryptocurrency startup Permission, was among the most optimistic participants in the discussion. She predicts that BTC will peak at $220,000 this year. A much more modest figure was voiced by the founder of the CoinFlip bitcoin ATM network, Daniel Polotsky. In his opinion, the cryptocurrency is unlikely to exceed $60,000 in 2022 as the bubbles created by the US Federal Reserve during the pandemic are now deflating. Crypto analyst Jason Pizzino predicts BTC growth as well. According to his forecast, bitcoin will still enter an accumulation period in the medium term, when whales and investors with smart money will begin to invest in cryptocurrency, waiting for its next bullish trend. This may take a whole year, during which the BTC rate will rise. According to Pizzino's forecast, bitcoin is able to reach a new price high in the second half of 2022, but this will not be a sharp upward movement but a series of ascents. Finally, the most cosmic forecast was given by Circle CEO Jeremy Aller in an interview with Business Insider. In his opinion, the worldwide adoption of bitcoin will certainly contribute to the growth of this coin to $1 million. The businessman admitted that he is not a "bitcoin maximalist", but he still believes in new cryptocurrency highs. At the same time, he prefers not to compare bitcoin with gold, believing that the digital asset is much more efficient than precious metals. According to the head of Circle, gold as money is simply useless in modern society. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 NordFX Affiliate Program and Social Trading Network Recognized as the Best in 2021 The Expert Council of the Forex-Awards.com named the Affiliate Program of the brokerage company NordFX and its Social Trading Network as the best at the end of 2021. The Forex-Awards.com Expert Council is a unique team of professionals headquartered in Hong Kong. Based on the opinions of both independent experts and the trading community, the Expert Council honors the most remarkable solutions and innovations in almost 30 nominations and rewards market participants featuring breakthrough initiatives and excellent results in the Forex industry. A convincing victory was won by the brokerage company NordFX in two of them in 2021. The victory in the Best Affiliate Program nomination was won thanks to NordFX's multi-level Flexible Partnership Program, which offers its IB partners payments up to 70% of the spread and most advanced CPA up to $700. Monthly monitoring showed that the total earnings of TOP-3 IB partners amounted to $351.853 in 2021. That is, the average earnings of each of them was $9.773 per month. In total, over $30,000,000 has been paid to all IB partners of the brokerage company during the program's operation. At the same time, it must be taken into account that ΙΒ earnings are withdrawn instantly and without any restrictions. NordFX Social Trading Network offers unique advantages to both novice traders and passive investors. Using Copy Trading and PAMM services, they get the opportunity to make a profit even with no independent trading experience and without any serious time spent. Experienced traders get additional earning opportunities by offering their services as signal providers and account managers. In addition, the victory in the Best Social Trading Network nomination was facilitated by the wide information and educational work carried out by NordFX in various languages in all major social networks and hundreds of specialized Internet resources, forums and blogs. Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 CryptoNews of the Week - The US authorities announced the detention of persons they consider involved in the hacking of the Bitfinex exchange in 2016, and the confiscation of $3.6 billion worth of bitcoins stolen from it. According to a press release from the US Department of Justice, the accused are the spouses: a 34-year-old Russian and US citizen Ilya Lichtenstein and a 31-year-old Heather Morgan. “According to court documents, Liechtenstein and Morgan allegedly colluded to launder proceeds of 119,754 BTC stolen from Bitfinex after the platform’s systems were hacked and more than 2,000 unauthorized transactions were performed,” the agency’s website says. Approximately 25,000 of these stolen bitcoins have been withdrawn from a Liechtenstein-controlled wallet through a complex money laundering process over the past five years, according to investigators. The rest of the stolen coins, more than 94,000 BTC, remained in the wallet, which allowed special agents to seize them legally. Representatives of the Ministry of Justice stressed that this is the largest case of cryptocurrency confiscation in the history of the department. According to the latest information, the court of the Southern District of New York released the spouses on bail of $8 million, and the seized bitcoins were returned to the Bitfinex exchange. - A trader nicknamed macromule shared a trading algorithm that could bring about 1000% per annum. The signal to open a position is the tweets of the Bitcoin skeptic and gold supporter Peter Schiff about the first cryptocurrency. The user recommended buying BTC every time after the next such tweet and closing the position after 72 hours. According to macromule, this strategy could have made 203 trades since last May, of which 65% would bring an average profit of 3%. - Sean Farrell, an analyst at the financial research company FSINsight, believes that the price of the first cryptocurrency is likely to reach $200,000 in the second half of 2022. According to his observations, the correlation of bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole with the shares of technology companies increased in the last quarter of last year. At the same time, according to Farrell, bitcoin’s dominance over altcoins remains unshakable and its price, despite a “shaky start” in early 2022, could eventually reach $200,000. The FSInsight report also states that the ethereum platform is undervalued and the second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization may reach $12,000 this year. The analyst is optimistic about the transition of ethereum to the Proof-of-Stake algorithm. And if the process goes smoothly, capital inflows into the ecosystem will increase, “regardless of bitcoin’s performance.” - The CEO of the KuCoin crypto exchange, Johnny Liu, shared his vision of the trends in the digital asset industry and focused on the decrease in the share of BTC relative to the entire crypto market. “Bitcoin dominance index is now 42%. Most innovative projects are launched on ethereum, and I believe that it will pull ahead in the long term,” Liu said. As for regulatory issues, the head of KuCoin recommends patience. The authorities will gradually deal with the benefits and risks of cryptocurrencies. According to him, there is a trend in the mass adoption of cryptocurrencies at the state level, governments are exchanging experience in their legalization, so any restrictions are only a temporary measure. - Billionaire Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, expressed the opposite point of view. He believes that cryptocurrencies are too vulnerable, they are easy to trace, and it is likely that this asset class will be banned by the governments of a number of countries. Given the small size of the cryptocurrency market, Dalio said, “it gets too much attention.” He confirmed that he invested in ethereum in December 2021, but digital assets make up a "negligible percentage" of his personal investment portfolio. The head of Bridgewater Associates also advised to create an investment portfolio that is diversified across asset classes and markets. At the same time, the billionaire noted that "cash is garbage." — Ricardo Salinas Pliego, one of the richest people in Mexico and the founder of the Grupo Salinas group of companies, said in an interview with Bitcoin Magazine that the first cryptocurrency was superior to fiat. “Anything we have in fiat can be completely seized by the authorities,” he noted and explained that the decentralized nature of the first cryptocurrency makes it much more difficult to ban or control it. Therefore, “the government is not interested in facilitating the use of bitcoin.” He called the limited emission of 21 million BTC an additional advantage of the first cryptocurrency, which allows using this cryptocurrency as a store of value in the long term. “But don’t expect to easily make money on it in 30 days,” the billionaire warned. - Cryptocurrency trader Dave the Wave believes that BTC could break the $100,000 mark at the end of this year or early 2023, while his scenario assumes a “decent correction”. The trader notes that the cyclical curve pointing to $100,000 should not be interpreted as a support level, but as an average exchange rate trajectory that bitcoin can follow roughly. In regard to the near future, Dave the Wave noted that while bitcoin's monthly chart may still look bearish, certain bullish signals are emerging on the weekly chart. In addition, bitcoin managed to break out of the narrow downward channel. - North Korea continues to develop its nuclear programs, and funds received from attacks on cryptocurrency exchanges have become an important source of their financing. This is reported by Reuters with reference to a UN report. The authors of the report refer to Chainalysis data, according to which cybercriminals from the DPRK carried out at least seven attacks on cryptocurrency platforms last year, stealing assets worth about $400 million. Most of the funds were stolen in hacks that targeted at least three crypto exchanges in North America, Europe and Africa. According to Chainalysis, North Korea controls $170 million in the current balances of exchanges, but these amounts have not yet been laundered. Recall that Pentagon officials previously claimed that more than 6,000 hackers around the world are working for North Korea. - The author of the book The Ascent of Money, historian and economist Niall Ferguson said that if the historical dynamics of BTC fluctuations repeat, the price of the first cryptocurrency will fall by November 2022 to a low of $11,515. This is 83% below the historic peak in bitcoin value reached in November 2021. At the same time, Ferguson disagrees categorically with the opinion of the Nobel Prize winner in economics Paul Krugman, who draws a parallel between the volatility of the cryptocurrency market and the collapse of the US real estate market in 2007-2008. Which, as you know, was followed by the global economic crisis. Niall Ferguson believes that “it is not worth waiting for a polar vortex or a giant ice cyclone. However, this does not mean that crypto winter will bring less cold.” The crypto skeptic clarified that a fall in the value of bitcoin to the lows of the 2010s is unlikely, since BTC has become a larger asset than it was ten years ago, and its market capitalization has grown to almost $1.0 trillion in 2021. - According to Robert Breedlove, CEO of Parallax Digital, the price of bitcoin will increase over the next few years, and its market capitalization will exceed $5.0 trillion. Inflation in the US is at a 40-year high at the moment. And according to the businessman, the same thing can happen with the dollar as with the currency of Venezuela. The US dollar will hyperinflate by 2035. At this point, the price of bitcoin in dollar terms will become astronomical: 1, 5, 10 million USD per coin. In terms of downside risks to BTC, the world's largest cryptocurrency faces few existential threats, and only finite probability or black swan events can significantly hurt its price. It could be a cryptographic hack, it could be some kind of cosmological event, an electromagnetic pulse could destroy all the electronic equipment in the world. However, the biggest threat to bitcoin comes from regulators, according to Robert Breedlove. The authorities will try to make life as difficult as possible for cryptocurrencies, as a class that poses a threat to their financial systems, which are already under heavy debt pressure. Therefore, it is highly likely that the authorities will use all their tools to regulate digital assets as much as possible. Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vaabum Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Do you have a demo account? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 14 - 18, 2022 EUR/USD: Tsunami Due to US Inflation Ancient Greeks began to declare a truce during the Olympic Games more than 2,800 years ago. It seems that the EUR/USD bulls and bears have decided to adopt this tradition during the current Winter Olympics in Beijing. We observed a complete lull for at least the first half of the week, and the pair moved eastward under slight pressure in a narrow channel not exceeding 60 points, 1.1400-1.1460. This calm was interrupted by a small tsunami that swept on Thursday, February 10 after the latest US inflation data was published. Consumer prices grew by 7.5%, while core inflation reached 6.0% (against 5.5% a month earlier). Both values are the highest for the last 40 years, and this has not been observed since 1982. And it scared the markets. To be completely accurate, it was not the numbers themselves that frightened them, but the possible reaction of the US Federal Reserve to them. Investors were concerned that the US Central bank would act even more aggressively than expected in order to curb inflation. The probability that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) will raise interest rates by 50 basis points (bp) in March has jumped to 80%. There have also been rumors that the rate could be raised as many as seven times in 2022. Analysts at Goldman Sachs predict that federal borrowing costs could rise to 2.0% by early 2023. As a result of the panic, the dollar began to rise, while stock indices (S&P500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq) and the EUR/USD pair rolled down. However, the situation changed very quickly: the markets were afraid of the general economic risks caused by such a strong increase in consumer prices. And, having bounced off the level of 1.1374, the pair soared up by almost 120 points, to a height of 1.1494. After that, it changed the course again by 180 degrees. There were two reasons for this reversal, the third in a row. The first was those overall economic risks, on the contrary, could push the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more vigorously. The second reason was Christine Lagarde. The head of the ECB said last week that a sharp tightening of monetary policy will have a negative effect on the Eurozone economy. This suggests the conclusion that this regulator is still not ready to raise rates, even despite high inflation rates. And according to forecasts, the first rate increase by 25 bp. can only be expected in December 2022. Divergence in the pace of monetary tightening by the Fed and the ECB has always been good for the dollar. The same happened this time: the EUR/USD pair flew down again without reaching the height of 1.1500, reaching the local bottom at the level of 1.1329. As for the final chord of the week, it sounded at the height of 1.1340. Taking into account the dynamics of the last two weeks, the readings of indicators on D1 are as follows at the time of writing the forecast on the evening of Friday, February 11: 65% of oscillators are colored green, the remaining 35% are neutral. As for trend indicators, only 25% are colored green, the remaining 75% are red. As for the experts, of course, all of them will pick up signals from the US Federal Reserve, primarily regarding how much the rate will be raised at the FOMC meeting in March. But it is already now that 55% of them are voting for the strengthening of the US currency and the movement of the EUR/USD pair to the south. 30% vote for an uptrend, and 15% of analysts predict a sideways movement of the pair. The nearest resistance is 1.1370, followed by 1.1415, 1.1480-1.1525, 1.1560 and 1.1625. Supports in zones and at levels 1.1275-1.1315, 1.1220, 1.1185 and January 28 low 1.1120. As for the upcoming week, Eurozone GDP data will be published on Tuesday, February 15. High volatility can be expected due to the release of the next portion of data on the US consumer market the next day, on Wednesday, February 16. The publication of the February FOMC meeting minutes will also cause unconditional interest on this day. GBP/USD: The Trend Is Rising. Still Rising. While the ECB is lagging behind the Fed, the Bank of England is so far ahead, raising interest rates faster than its peers across the Atlantic. Therefore, unlike the euro, the British pound managed to hold its ground so far last week, finishing the five-day period at 1.3551. The key word here is "so far": "so far ahead" and "managed so far." The superiority of the pound over the dollar is very shaky and it can quickly start retreating. The main factors that could force the Bank of England to stop raising the rate, leaving it at a low level, are weak GDP and labor market growth, as well as low levels of consumer spending. According to the data published on Friday, February 11, the UK's GDP, instead of the expected 1.1%, grew by only 1.0% in the Q4 2021. And the situation in the labor market and the consumer marke will become known next week: statistics on the unemployment rate will be released on February 15, and that on the level of prices in the United Kingdom - on February 16. When predicting the upcoming steps of the British regulator, it is appropriate to recall that only 4 out of 9 members of the Bank of England committee voted for a rate increase by 50 bps at the last meeting. The majority, including the head of the bank, Andrew Bailey, citing a slowdown in economic growth, decided to raise the rate by only 25 basis points. The fact that this regulator will continue to act very carefully, which was confirmed by the Bank of England chief economist Hugh Pill. He said in an interview with Reuters that the bank expects "further moderate tightening in the coming months if everything goes as planned" and that "one needs to be careful in setting the rate level." At the moment, most experts (60%) are betting on the strengthening of the dollar, believing that the GBP/USD pair will go down in the near future. The opposite position is taken by 30% of analysts, the remaining 10% remain neutral. Indicators on D1 look as follows: 90% of oscillators point to the north (10% of them are in the overbought zone), 10% look to the south. Among trend indicators, the ratio of forces is almost the same, 85/15%. Supports are located at 1.3500, 1.3425, 1.3365, the next strong support is 100 points lower. The resistance levels are 1.3585, 1.3600-1.3625, 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3835 and 1.3900. USD/JPY: The Pair Storms a Five-Year High Again The correlation between US Treasuries and USD/JPY is not a secret to anyone. If the yield on US bills grows, so does the dollar against the yen. And the Japanese currency received a double blow last week: both the yield on 10-year treasury bonds, which reached peak levels since August 2019, and the USD DXY index, which soared sharply after the events described above on February 10, rose. As a result, the pair retested the multi-year high of 116.35, recorded on January 04, 2022. However, it failed to break this record, and completed the working week at 115.30. Currently, most experts (60%) expect the USD/JPY pair to try again to update this high and rise to the point where it has not been seen since January 2017. All 100% of oscillators on D1 and 80% of trend indicators support this development. The nearest resistance zone is 115.70. The remaining 40% of experts and 20% of trend indicators side with the bears. Support levels are at 115.00 followed by 114.15, 113.75, 113.45, 113.20, 112.55 and 112.70. Japan's GDP (Q4) data, which will be made public on Tuesday, February 15, may be able to provide some assistance to the yen. According to forecasts, the country's Gross Domestic Product may grow from minus 0.9% to plus 1.4% during the quarter. Although, in the current post-COVID situation, such economic growth may, on the contrary, play against its national currency, confirming the correctness of the super-dove policy of the Bank of Japan, which has frozen the interest rate at minus 0.1% for a long time. CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Correction or Reversal? The question of what we have seen the last three weeks, just a correction to a downtrend or the beginning of a new rise, remains open. Cryptocurrency quotes are going up along with the S&P500 and Dow Jones stock indices, and even slightly ahead of them. Something similar could be observed a few months ago. But then, digital currencies outperformed stocks by almost two months with the transition from growth to collapse. The BTC/USD pair reached a high on November 10, 2021, after which it turned south. As for the S&P500, its high was on January 04, 2022. And this is logical: despite the correlation, the stock market is still much more stable than the cryptocurrency market. But both of them are very dependent on the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (and, in part, on the actions of other Central banks). The stimulus program that kicked off the printing press flooded the US economy with cheap dollars and boosted risky assets. The Fed is currently tightening its policy. Based on this logic, we can predict a further decline in investors' interest primarily in cryptocurrencies. We have already said that the movement of crypto quotes will depend in the near future (and already depends) on the mood of just a few governments and Central banks. But the expert community has not yet come to a consensus as to what their attitude will be. For example, Johnny Liu, CEO of the KuCoin crypto exchange, has taken the “bright side”, believing that the authorities will gradually understand the advantages of cryptocurrencies. According to him, there is a trend in the mass adoption of cryptocurrencies at the state level, governments are exchanging experience in their legalization, so any restrictions are only a temporary measure. The opposite view was expressed by the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, who believes that this asset class is likely to be banned by the governments of a number of countries. Ricardo Salinas Pliego, one of the richest people in Mexico and founder of the Grupo Salinas group of companies, also believes that governments are not interested in facilitating the use of bitcoin, since the decentralized nature of the first cryptocurrency makes it much more difficult to control its turnover. The same opinion is shared by Parallax Digital CEO Robert Breedlove, who said that the authorities will try to make life as difficult as possible for cryptocurrencies, as a class that poses a threat to their financial systems. To do this, they will use all their tools, aiming to regulate digital assets as much as possible. This is what we have seen lately in countries such as China or Russia. Some optimism is caused by the fact that quite a lot of representatives of large businesses already side with digital assets, recognizing the merits of cryptocurrencies to one degree or another. Of course, not all of them are ready to invest serious capital in this market right now. The aforementioned billionaire Ray Dalio, while stating that “cash is trash,” admitted that digital assets make up a “tiny percentage” of his personal investment portfolio. And that in general, given the small size of the cryptocurrency market, it "is given too much attention." In terms of market size, Robert Breedlove believes that the market capitalization of bitcoin will increase dramatically over the next few years and exceed $5.0 trillion. Inflation in the US is at a 40-year high at the moment. And according to the head of Parallax Digital, the same thing can happen with the dollar as with the currency of Venezuela. The US currency will hyperinflate by 2035, at which point the price of BTC in dollar terms will become astronomical: 1, 5, or 10 million USD per coin. That is, the Fed's printing press can provide tremendous support to bitcoin. But the biggest threat to it, according to Robert Breedlove, comes from the same regulator. All indicators of the crypto market look much more modest at the time of writing the review on the evening of Friday, February 04. The total market capitalization is still slightly closer to $2.0 trillion and is at the level of $1.90 trillion ($1.85 trillion a week ago), the Bitcoin Dominance Index is 42.46%. The BTC/USD pair is trading in the $42,500 zone, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has left the Extreme Fear zone and, having gone up sharply, reached 50 points, which corresponds to the neutral state of the market. A number of experts monitoring the dynamics of supply and demand for bitcoin are alarmed by the weak base for the current growth of the coin. As a result, in their opinion, the BTC/USD pair may return to the $40,000 zone within a month, and then fall even lower, to $29,000, in the medium term. An even more pessimistic forecast was given by the author of the book "The Ascent of Money", historian of economics Niall Ferguson. He believes that if the historical dynamics of BTC fluctuations is repeated, the price of the first cryptocurrency will fall to a low of $11,515 by November 2022. This is 83% below the historic peak in bitcoin value reached in November 2021. At the same time, Ferguson disagrees categorically with the opinion of the Nobel Prize winner in economics Paul Krugman, who draws a parallel between the volatility of the cryptocurrency market and the collapse of the US real estate market in 2007-2008. Which, as you know, was followed by the global economic crisis. Niall Ferguson believes that “it is not worth waiting for a polar vortex or a giant ice cyclone. And a drop in the value of bitcoin to the lows of the 2010s is unlikely. However, this does not mean that crypto winter will bring less cold.” Of course, there are much more optimistic forecasts. According to Sean Farrell, an analyst at financial research firm FSInsight, bitcoin’s dominance over altcoins will remain unshakable and its price, despite a “shaky start” in January, could reach $200,000 in the second half of 2022. The FSInsight report also states that the ethereum platform is undervalued and the second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization may reach $12,000 this year. Sean Farrell is optimistic about the transition of ethereum to the Proof-of-Stake algorithm. And if the process goes smoothly, capital inflows into the ecosystem will increase, “regardless of bitcoin’s performance.” And the CEO of the KuCoin crypto exchange, Johnny Liu, believes that since most innovative projects are launched on the ethereum, it will break ahead of BTC in the long run. The fact that the BTC/USD pair could overcome the $100,000 mark at the end of this year or at the beginning of 2023 is also indicated by the forecast of a crypto trader nicknamed Dave the Wave. However, this scenario also implies a “decent correction”. The trader notes that the $100,000 cyclical curve should be interpreted not as a support level, but as an average price trajectory that bitcoin can roughly follow. In regard to the near future, Dave the Wave noted that while bitcoin's monthly chart may still look bearish, certain bullish signals are emerging on the weekly chart. In addition, bitcoin managed to break out of the narrow downward channel, which also indicates an upcoming increase. And at the end of the review, our traditional heading of crypto life hacks. This time we will mention a trader nicknamed macromule who shared a very interesting trading algorithm. According to this trader, the signal to open a position is the tweets of the bitcoin skeptic and gold supporter Peter Schiff about the first cryptocurrency. The user recommended buying BTC every time after the next such tweet and closing the position after 72 hours. According to macromule, this strategy could have made 203 trades since last May, of which 65% 65% would have been in positive territory and brought about 1,000% per annum income. Of course, we cannot recommend using this "strategy". But if someone still wants to test it, they can do it on a demo account without risking real money. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 CryptoNews of the Week - Tom Lee, co-founder of the analytical firm Fundstrat, called $200,000 a target mark for bitcoin in an interview with CNBC and explained what facilitates its achievement. According to the analyst, the total net worth of US households exceeds $141 trillion. The Fed's monetary policy leads to the fact that people are guaranteed to lose money on investing in bonds over the next decade. Lee expects an influx of speculative capital into cryptocurrency that could be “huge”, in this regard. The high price of this asset is an obstacle to the mass adoption of bitcoin, in his opinion. Therefore, Tom Lee has supported the idea of switching to Satoshi, a millionth of BTC. - The name of Satoshi Nakamoto also made it onto The Guardian pages. British crypto investor Anthony Welch bought Lataro Island in the Pacific Ocean (Vanuatu) with an area of 300 hectares and renamed it Satoshi. According to the newspaper, he plans to build a smart city there for supporters of digital assets. According to the publication, Welch has been living on the island for the past 12 years with his partner Teresa. They expect 21,000 crypto investors from all over the world to join them soon. “Yes, we already have an island. Yes, we can develop as advertised. Yes, the government supports our plan. Yes, our team has relevant experience,” the project description says. Candidates wishing to live on the island will receive an NFT token that will grant them Satoshi Island citizenship. In addition, all applicants will also have to obtain Vanuatu citizenship, which will cost them $130,000. - According to the analytical company ESET, NFTs have become one of the main mechanisms for the distribution of malware for hidden mining or theft of cryptocurrency wallets in 2021. Most often, hackers put viruses into gaming NFTs that allegedly contain superpowers or rare weapons. Tools for crypto jacking, which allows for hidden mining, are implemented by attackers using various applications. Previously, the main sources of such viruses were torrent resources and porn sites. - Legendary billionaire investor and founder of Miller Value Partners Bill Miller, speaking to CNBC, called bitcoin insurance against financial disasters and said that he still holds a significant part of the capital in the first cryptocurrency. He explained that he invested only a few percent of his fortune in digital assets, which then, as the cryptocurrency market grew, turned into half of his personal funds. According to Miller, the thesis about the lack of intrinsic value of bitcoin is erroneous. “It's like an insurance policy. You don't want your house to burn down, and you don't want to get into a terrible accident, but you pay for insurance every year in case it happens,” explained the billionaire. He also likened the digital asset to collectibles like baseball cards and Picasso paintings. - The Russian authorities unanimously refused bitcoin as a means of payment. The Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance of the country have brought together their positions on the development of cryptocurrencies. The parties agreed that cryptocurrencies will not receive the status of a means of payment in Russia. However, their purchase, exchange and sale are subject to regulation. - Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson believes that BTC will not be able to become a global reserve currency due to the energy costs of mining, various ecosystem flaws, and inconsistency with current industry standards. But his ADA cryptocurrency is quite suitable for this role. “Imagine that you are selling paintings, one of which you have to draw by hand and another with a machine. Both of them look the same and are in the same demand. So, you're just spending a thousand times more effort. - Analyst Willy Woo believes that bitcoin will rise over the next five years. In his opinion, the future of the US dollar in terms of inflation has not yet been determined, and the capitalization of bitcoin is consolidating now in the $1 trillion zone. Overcoming this mark will give the coin greater stability. Further growth to the gold capitalization of almost $11 trillion will be relatively smooth, after which it will slow down. As for the final figure, Willy Woo believes that the capitalization of bitcoin could eventually grow to $40 trillion. The deviation of the BTC price from the trend line occurred, according to Woo, due to the fact that the market was diluted due to the presence of other digital assets. Ethereum was launched in 2015, and as a result, there was a significant deviation in the direct trend line of bitcoin. And the line deviated even more in 2021 due to several thousand “shitcoins”. - Cryptocurrency analyst Nicholas Merten believes that bitcoin is showing signs of an upcoming rally, and the bulls have a chance to beat the bears. According to him, bitcoin has not gone into a bear market, and the recent stagnation should not be confusing. “This is a really great signal,” says Merten, “Bitcoin doesn’t create lower highs, they are relatively constant, but the lows are getting higher. The previous resistance level becomes an upward support. Investors are ready to overpay, which indicates the market is ready to return to the formation of another uptrend.” According to the analyst’s forecasts, “Bitcoin’s capitalization could potentially reach $4 trillion in October-December 2022, that is, the asset will show a 220% increase compared to the previous record high. The previous rally was up 392% and it was up 359% earlier. - Jurrien Timmer, Global Macroeconomics Director at one of the largest asset management companies, Fidelity Investments, is confident that the value of the first cryptocurrency will repeat the growth of the Apple's market value. “I compared the network effect of bitcoin to the network effect of Apple computers. As Apple's earnings increase, its share price rises exponentially. I have reason to believe that bitcoin is following the same path. The price of this cryptocurrency will only increase as demand increases.” BTC benefits from its strong difference from all other crypto assets, the expert believes. “Perhaps other digital currencies will look better against the background of bitcoin due to better scalability, but at the same time, they are likely to be less decentralized. For me, bitcoin is like gold, and other cryptocurrencies are more like venture capital.” Recall that Timmer said last October that the value of BTC will reach $100,000 by 2023. - A few days after the United Nations said that North Korea hacked cryptocurrency exchanges on several continents last year, Pyongyang hit back. The DPRK Ministry of Foreign Affairs has accused the United States of being a wiretapping empire, a hacker king and a [expert] country when it comes to covert thefts. The Foreign Ministry statement also claimed that the accusations of stealing the cryptocurrency were a kind of “fabrication that only the United States could invent, with their rejection of North Korea.” Pyongyang added that all this was evidenced by revelations made by former US intelligence agent Edward Snowden, who said that US intelligence agencies were spying on their own citizens, as well as reports that the United States tapped the phones of European leaders. Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 21 - 25, 2022 EUR/USD: Waiting for War and Rate Hike The period from February 10 to 14 was unexpectedly stormy. Panic moods were diligently warmed up by the leading media, actively discussing the statements of world leaders, primarily the President of the United States, regarding a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine. The White House even decided to relocate its diplomatic mission from Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, to Lviv, away from the zone of possible military operations and closer to the EU borders. All this happened against the background of the US Federal Reserve's decision to convene an emergency meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee). Rumors immediately spread that the refinancing rate would be increased by 50 basis points (bp) right now. As a result, investors began to panic to get rid of risky assets, and the stock indices S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq flew down. The EUR/USD went down as well. The markets feared that the "hot" phase of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict would lead to further growth in energy prices and slow down the recovery of the European economy. According to JP Morgan strategists, if the price of oil rises to $150 per barrel, the global consumer price index (CPI) could soar to 7.0%. And according to Capital Economics, inflation in advanced economies could rise to 4.5%. As a result, having started on February 10 at 1.1494, the war-terrified EUR/USD pair ended up at 1.1279 on February 14. That is, the euro returned to where it started north during Christine Lagarde's hawkish press conference, which she gave after the last meeting of the European Central Bank. The results of the emergency FOMC meeting left many experts bewildered. There was no increase in interest rates. Perhaps the members of the Committee did not want to provoke further mass sales of shares and decided to wait for the outcome of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Moreover, there are signs of its peaceful resolution. Investors began to calm down little by little. However, it was not possible to avoid a new wave of sales in the stock markets. And it followed on February 17 after another "apocalyptic" speech by US President Joe Biden. Unlike equities, EUR/USD managed to stay neutral and ended the five-day trading session at 1.1324, within the 1.1260-1.1400 range it traded throughout December and the first ten days of January. The European currency was kept from further falling, among other things, by multidirectional macroeconomic statistics from the USA. Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits there amounted to 248K, that is, it increased by 23K instead of the expected fall by 5K. But repeated requests, instead of decreasing by 2K, fell immediately by 26 K. The dynamics of the EUR/USD pair in the coming days will certainly be influenced by how far the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will go, as well as how deeply European countries and the United States will be involved into it and what the rhetoric of their leaders will be. If there is no war, the topic of the energy crisis in Europe will fade into the background, which will support the European currency. Support for the dollar is now largely dependent on the Fed. Yes, there are disagreements among FOMC members. But they are not about whether or not to tighten monetary policy, but how quickly to do it and to what extent. The hawkish statements of some members of the Committee give rise to forecasts of 6 or even 7 acts of monetary restriction in 2022. However, a number of leaders of the Federal Reserve Banks believe that it is necessary to act slowly and more carefully, since too aggressive steps could hit the US economy. At the time of writing, the trend indicators on D1 are 90% red and only 10% green. Among the oscillators, 20% are green, 50% are red, and 30% are neutral. Experts' forecast for the next week also looks very uncertain: 40% do not exclude the growth of the pair, 50% adhere to the opposite point of view, and 10% remain neutral. However, 65% of analysts support the strengthening of the dollar in a forecast for March. Resistances are located at levels 1.1385-1.1400, 1.1480, 1.1525, 1.1570 and 1.1615. Support levels are 1.1300, 1.1275, 1.1220. This is followed by 1.1185 and the Jan 28 low at 1.1120. As for the economic calendar for the coming week, we can note the release of data on business activity (Markit) in Germany and the Eurozone on Monday, February 21. Preliminary annual data on US GDP will become known on Thursday, February 24, and US statistics on orders for capital goods and durable goods will arrive at the end of the week, on Friday. GBP/USD: Consolidation of the Pair, Consolidation of Experts The macro data released last week supported the British currency. This applies to both the labor market and the consumer market. The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom remained unchanged at 4.1%, which was exactly in line with the forecast. At the same time, the number of applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 51.6K to 31.9K in January. Retail sales added 1.9% after a 4.0% dip in December and are above the long-term trend level. All this is a positive signal about the recovery of the country's economy. Looking back a few years, we can see that the 2007-2008 financial crisis was followed by an eight-year period during which retail sales remained below the trend line. This was one of the reasons that prevented the Bank of England from raising rates. But now both inflation indicators and the state of the labor market can give it a free hand in tightening monetary policy. Moreover, the British regulator is still in the lead, raising interest rates faster than its counterparts on the other side of the Atlantic do. However, this superiority is very shaky. The growth in sales may not be due to an improvement in the economic situation, but due to pent-up demand for goods and services, access to which was limited due to quarantine measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. So, the upcoming steps of the British regulator are likely to be very balanced. So as not to repeat the mistakes of the ECB, which rushed to raise the rate in May 2009, undermining the economic recovery. In support of the forecast, it is enough to recall that only 4 out of 9 members of the BoE committee voted for a 50 bps rate increase at the last meeting. The majority, including the head of the bank, Andrew Bailey, decided to raise the rate by only 25 basis points, citing a slowdown in economic growth. Economic indicators allow the pound to successfully repel the attacks of the US currency at the moment, and we can see the GBP/USD pair consolidating around 1.3600. We can say that experts' forecasts for the coming week are also consolidating: 25% of them vote for a sideways trend. 40% vote for moving north and 35% for moving south. (When moving to a monthly forecast, the number of bear supporters increases to 70%). The overwhelming majority of indicators are aimed upwards D1. Among the oscillators, there are 70% of those. 20% have taken a neutral position, the remaining 10% side with the dollar. Among trend indicators, 90% are for the growth of the pair, 10% are for its fall. Supports are located at 1.3570, 1.3500, 1.3425, 1.3355, the next strong support is 100 points lower. Resistance levels are 1.3600, 1.3650, 1.3700-1.3740, 1.3830 and 1.3900. Of the events of the coming week, data on business activity in the services sector (Markit), which will be published on Monday, February 21, as well as the hearing of the UK Inflation Report on Wednesday, February 23, are of interest. USD/JPY: Investors at a Crossroads The USD/JPY was trading in a fairly narrow range throughout the past week, less than 110 pips (114.78-115.86). As already mentioned, investors are now most concerned about two issues: the expected Russian invasion of Ukraine and the increase in the refinancing rate by the US Central Bank. And, apparently, they have not yet decided what to do with such a safe-haven currency as the yen at this stage. On the one hand, the increase in USD rates should push the pair up, strengthening the position of the US currency. On the other hand, the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine may remind the markets of economic crises and a spike in inflation. In this case, one can expect a complete loss of risk appetite among investors and an influx of their capital into such a safe haven as the Japanese currency. Actually, this is happening now, although not on a very large scale: it is enough to compare the charts of stock indices and USD/JPY. This relationship is even clearer when compared to the EUR/JPY chart, since, unlike the US, the Eurozone is located in close proximity to the potential war zone. Analysts' forecasts for the coming week are as follows: 25% of them are in favor of a sideways trend, 50% are in favor of the pair's growth and 25% are in favor of its fall. Among the oscillators on D1, 30% are neutral gray, 10% are green, 60% are red (with a quarter of them in the oversold zone). Trend indicators have a 50-50 draw. The nearest resistance zone is 115.30, then 115.70. The main goal of the bulls is to renew the high of 116.34 and rise to where the pair has not been seen since January 2017. Support levels are at 115.00, 114.80, 114.15, 113.75, 113.45, 113.20, 112.55 and 112.70. No significant economic events are expected in Japan next week. CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Crypto Market Black Friday BTC/USD is back where it was a month ago. The chart of the last two weeks resembled the chart of mid-January. The front line then lay at the $42,000 level, along which the bulls and bears fought with varying degrees of success. Last time, they ended with the pair falling to $32.945, and, according to a number of analysts, a similar outcome is possible this time as well. It depends not so much on the sales caused by a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, but on the US Federal Reserve. Tightening monetary policy and rising interest rates could hurt all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has acted as an inflation protector throughout the pandemic. This was one of the main drivers of its growth. But if inflation returns to normal, who needs such a protector? There is no doubt that the US Central bank will try to curb inflation, which has already reached a 40-year high. But how successful its efforts will be is a question to which different experts give different answers. Bitcoin supporters continue to convince everyone (and themselves in the first place) that we are ahead of an endless rise in prices and serious financial turmoil. According to Parallax Digital CEO Robert Breedlove, the same thing could happen to the dollar as to the currency of Venezuela. The US currency will hyperinflate by 2035, at which point the price of BTC in dollar terms will become astronomical: 1, 5, or 10 million USD per coin. The legendary investor, founder of Miller Value Partners, Bill Miller almost half of whose fortune is now made up of cryptocurrency, also stood up to the defense of bitcoin. “It's like an insurance policy. You don't want your house to burn down, and you don't want to get into a terrible accident, but you pay for insurance every year in case it happens,” explained the billionaire. Tom Lee, co-founder of the analytical firm Fundstrat, called $200,000 a target mark for bitcoin in an interview with CNBC and explained who will facilitate its achievement. And these are not institutional investors at all, but small investors. According to the analyst, the total net worth of US households exceeds $141 trillion. People will look for ways to protect them over the next decade in order not to lose their savings due to inflation, . Therefore, Lee says, the inflow of capital into cryptocurrency can be “huge”. The high price of this asset is an obstacle to the mass adoption of bitcoin, in his opinion. Therefore, Tom Lee has supported the idea of switching to Satoshi, a millionth of BTC. Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macroeconomics at Fidelity Investments, one of the largest asset management companies, is also optimistic. He is confident that the value of the first cryptocurrency will repeat the growth of Apple's market value. “I compared the network effect of bitcoin to the network effect of Apple computers. As Apple's earnings increase, its share price rises exponentially. I have reason to believe that bitcoin is following the same path. The price of this cryptocurrency will only increase as demand increases.” And according to Trimmer, it will reach $100,000 by 2023. This expert believes that BTC benefits from its strong difference from all other crypto assets. “Perhaps other digital currencies will look more profitable against the background of bitcoin because of the better scalability, but at the same time they are likely to be less decentralized. For me, bitcoin is like gold, and other cryptocurrencies are more like venture capital.” Analyst Willy Woo believes that the future of the US dollar in terms of inflation has not yet been determined. Bitcoin's capitalization is currently below $1 trillion, and breaking this mark will give the coin more resilience, and it will grow over the next five years. Further growth to the gold capitalization of almost $11 trillion will be relatively smooth, after which it will slow down. As for the final figure, Willy Woo believes that the capitalization of bitcoin could eventually grow to $40 trillion. As for the immediate prospects, according to analyst Nicholas Merten, bitcoin is now giving signals of future growth and “its capitalization could reach $4 trillion potentially in October-December 2022.” That is, the asset will show a 220% increase in relation to the previous record high. The previous rally was 392% up and it was 359% up earlier. “This is a really great signal,” says Merten. “The past resistance level is becoming an upward support. Investors are ready to pay more and more, which indicates the market is ready to return to the formation of another uptrend.” The fact that BTC/USD was above the 50-day moving average for 10 days really looked like a trend reversal. A breakdown of the 200-day MA at $48,000 could be the next confirmation. Investors were also encouraged by the growth of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. If at the same BTC price, it was in the zone of Extreme Fear at the level of 20 points a month ago, it reached 52 points on Thursday, February 17. However, another wave of active sales on Black Friday, February 18 brought another portion of doubts about the bulls' near victory. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell into the Fear zone to the 30 mark. The 50-day MA has again turned from support to resistance, and the total crypto market capitalization has not managed to gain a foothold above the psychologically important level of $2.0 trillion, and it is $1.815 trillion at the time of writing. In conclusion, it remains only to quote the words of Tom Lee from Fundstrat. “If there is no crystal ball, it is very difficult to be accurate in cryptocurrency,” he joked about the forecasts. According to a proverb, there is some truth in every joke. In this case, this proportion clearly exceeds 50%. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 CryptoNews of the Week - Expectations of a key rate hike by the US Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions are fueling the pessimism of bitcoin investors and increasing the likelihood of selling unprofitable coins. This is the conclusion reached by Glassnode analysts. The bearish trend is confirmed by on-chain indicators: the number of active bitcoin addresses has dropped to the lower boundary of the corridor. This indicates a decrease in demand for the asset. The percentage of profitable bitcoin investors ranges between 65.8% and 76.7%. Short-term speculators (coin holding period less than 155 days) have purchased 2.56 million BTC. The average acquisition cost is $47,200. Their unrealized loss is about 20%, with the price around $38.000. They are currently a source of sales pressure in the absence of an equivalent increase in demand. Glassnode believes that if the price rises, the pressure of sellers may increase, who will try to leave the market without losses or with a minimum profit. - Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin believes that the new “crypto winter” can help the industry become stronger. However, he is not yet sure that this period has really come, Bloomberg writes. Buterin emphasized in an interview with the agency that in fact, people “deeply immersed in the cryptocurrency industry” welcome periods of the bear market. This allows you to get rid of weak projects, and also reduces the level of "hype". It is in the “winter” that many weak and harmful projects disappear, and only reliable, important projects remain, with well-thought-out business models and a close-knit team, the developer believes. - The law legalizing and accepting bitcoin as a means of payment came into force in El Salvador on September 7, 2021. According to the Minister of Tourism Morena Valdes, the tourist flow to the country increased by 30% after that. She said that the recovery in the segment has exceeded expectations, as the country received 1.4 million visitors in November-December, against the forecast of 1.1 million. She also drew attention to the growth in tourism revenues: "We planned $0.8 billion in foreign currencies but received $1.4 billion." The introduction of cryptocurrency had an impact on the structure of the tourist flow as well. If the bulk of tourists had before been from neighboring Central American countries, up to 60% currently come from the United States, the minister said. - Indian police have detained suspects in a Rs 400 million (about $5.34 million) cryptocurrency scam, according to the Times of India. Authorities arrested four people in the city of Lanowala during the raid, and seven more in Nagpur a day later. According to police, the attackers urged potential investors to buy ethereum on the ZebPay platform and then send the cryptocurrency to their Ether Trade Asia platform. Manipulating the data, they demonstrated to investors the imaginary profitability of the project and spent the raised funds on themselves. Participants in the scheme are also suspected of killing one of the accomplices for refusing to disclose "passwords for important transactions." - Past price cycles indicate that a new bull market for bitcoin may not occur until late 2024 or early 2025. Du Jun, CEO of Huobi crypto exchange, expressed this opinion in an interview with CNBC. According to him, bitcoin's price cycles are closely related to halvings: periodic block reward halvings embedded in the algorithm, which occur approximately every four years. The last halving took place in May 2020, and the quotes of the first cryptocurrency reached an all-time high above $68,000 a year later. A similar price movement was observed after the 2016 halving: bitcoin reached record levels in December 2017. Then deep drops in the price of digital gold followed in both cases, Du Jun recalled. Based on the trend, Huobi CEO believes that “we are now in the early stages of a bear market” and expects a bullish trend for bitcoin to come only after the next halving in 2024. However, he added that “it is difficult to predict accurately in reality, since there are many other factors that can affect the market, such as geopolitical issues, including war, or the recent COVID.” - Ricardo Salinas Pliego, one of the richest Mexicans, has spoken out in favor of the oldest crypto asset not for the first time. This time, the billionaire recommended strongly to continue buying BTC while the price is low enough, and to hold this asset without even thinking about a possible sale. He is convinced that those who listen to his advice will thank him later. The first cryptocurrency is separated from its November high by about 45% now, and a number of investors and large companies have taken advantage of the fall to replenish their BTC reserves. For example, this is the step taken by Microstrategy software developer, US Senator Ted Cruz, and El Salvador that made a splash last year. - David Schwartz, Ripple's CTO and one of the creators of XRP Ledger, continues to be one of the most mysterious characters in the cryptosphere. So much so that many people suspect that he may be the creator of bitcoin under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, or at least be associated with the Satoshi group. Although Schwartz has repeatedly denied this, he has admitted to "having optimized" the bitcoin code and working on it very early on, back in 2011. Here is what he had to say about it: “I have almost the entire skill set needed to be Satoshi. It is likely that I was part of a group. But, nevertheless, this is not true. I didn't know about bitcoin until 2011." And to the question: "If you really were Satoshi, would you tell us?", Schwartz replied: "Honestly, I would not speak." Schwartz's speech at the recent presentation of the XRP Ledger Foundation gave another reason for speculation. Attentive listeners noticed that he spoke about “When I Found Bitcoin…” at the beginning of his speech. The fact is that if the word “Found” had the ending -ed at the end, then it would already sound like “founded” or “created”. - The Coinbase cryptocurrency exchange will pay a premium of $250,000 to a Twitter user nicknamed Tree of Alpha, who discovered a “market nuclear bomb”. Tree of Alpha found a bug in the Coinbase trading platform, with which he managed to deceive the system and sell ethereum under the guise of bitcoins. He transferred 0.0243 ETH from his account, which he sold as 0.0243 BTC, and earned about $1000 instead of $70. After that, the trader contacted Coinbase management, reporting the vulnerability of the platform. The exchange staff, having checked for the error, eliminated it promptly, and the honest trader who prevented the "bomb explosion" was promised a reward of $250,000. - While the US federal authorities are thinking about how to conduct financial policy in relation to cryptocurrencies, local authorities are already trying to get ahead of them. It is possible that the state of California will recognize BTC as legal tender, following El Salvador. An expert group is working on the relevant bill at the moment. We should expect an influx of not only new investments in the state economy after its adoption, but also an increase in the number of companies and digital nomads working with cryptocurrencies. If California recognizes bitcoin, it is likely that other states will begin to consider similar initiatives, which can seriously improve the position of the cryptocurrency. - The aggravation of geopolitical tensions has led to an increase in the correlation between the first cryptocurrency and the US stock index S&P 500. This is stated in the analytical report of Arcane Research. According to the researchers, the 90-day correlation between BTC and the “barometer of the American economy” reached the highest level since October 2020. On the contrary, the statistical relationship between bitcoin and gold has become negative, as gold acts as a low-risk asset. Arcane Research has also noted that bitcoin spot trading volume on centralized exchanges has fallen to early December 2020 levels. Analysts are confident that the strongest support range is $28,000-$30,000, as it represents the “bottom of the bear market in the summer of 2021.” They have named $40,000 as an important resistance level. - Shark Tank business reality show star Kevin O'Leary has recently made his bitcoin prediction. He notes that many institutional investors cannot yet invest in the leading cryptocurrency, as this issue has not yet been resolved at the level of regulators. O'Leary has noted that anyone who wants to speculate about the cost of BTC at $100,000, $200,000, $300,000 should understand that all this will become possible when institutionalists finally have the opportunity to purchase a crypto asset in accordance with regulatory standards. He notes that he can say this with confidence, as he works with "sovereign wealth funds and pension plans." And although there is a lot of buzz around BTC right now, none of them have a single token. Moreover, they do not even plan investments in this asset yet. According to O'Leary, it is much better to think of BTC not as a coin, but as software. He has noted that the above institutions have shares in Microsoft and Google, so it will be easier for them to understand if they regard cryptocurrencies as software. At a time when the crypto sector begins to meet all the requirements, these financial institutions will be able to invest 1% to 3% of their capital in bitcoin, and this can happen within the next 2-3 years. Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 28 - March 04, 2022 EUR/USD: War Is Not Only Blood, But Also Business The dynamics of European currencies is now determined by what is happening in Ukraine. You can forget about all kinds of macro-economic indicators for a while. Who and how much earned on Russia's invasion of a neighboring country, and who lost and how much, will become clear only when the situation stabilizes finally. And this may not happen soon. Russia's possible hostilities against Ukraine had been discussed for several weeks. However, the world had expected that they would be limited to two regions in the east of the country, Donetsk and Luhansk. However, Russia launched missile and bomb attacks on all major cities of the country on Thursday, February 24, early in the morning, including the capital city of Kyiv, followed by an offensive by ground forces. Nobody had expected anything like this (except for Russian President Putin and his inner circle). The markets experienced a real shock, and a stampede began not only from risky assets, but also from European currencies. A number of European countries, primarily the Baltic ones, are afraid that Russia may invade their territory, following Ukraine. But even if these fears are discarded, Europe's economy has already suffered serious damage. Due to its proximity, the Eurozone is much more dependent on Russian energy than the United States. Russia accounts for about 40% of gas supplies and 30% of oil supplies to the EU. Moreover, one of the main gas pipelines passes through the territory of Ukraine, where the fighting is going on. This situation instantly raised the prices for blue fuel to cosmic heights and they were eight times higher than similar prices in the United States. It is clear that for Western Europe this does not portend anything else but falling into a deep recession, or even into stagflation Stagflation is an extremely weak GDP growth coupled with extremely high inflation, which has already reached a record level of 5.1%. The negative outlook is reinforced by the economic sanctions that the EU imposed against Russia to support Ukraine. They limit the current industrial turnover seriously, and also tighten the banking sector. It is difficult to imagine how the ECB will be able to wind down monetary stimulus and raise interest rates in this situation. As for the US Federal Reserve, this regulator is unlikely to abandon its plans. Although, it is possible that their implementation will be somewhat slowed down for the sake of supporting the stock market. At least in the near future. The EUR/USD pair was trading at 1.1494 back on February 10. The war in Eastern Europe led to the fact that it found the bottom at the level of 1.1106 just two weeks later, losing 388 points. The markets recovered somewhat from a powerful shock at the end of the week on Friday, February 25. The old principle, known since Napoleon Bonaparte, “Buy while the blood is shed,” worked. Stock indices went up, supporting the European currency. After the correction, it completed the week at 1.1270. At the time of writing the review, on February 25, it is unknown how the operation of Russian troops in Ukraine will end. It is unknown either what new sanctions the EU and the US will take against Russia if hostilities do not stop. Therefore, it is President Putin alone who could give the most accurate forecast for the coming week. We can only record the opinions of experts and the readings of indicators at the moment. The forecast of analysts for the next week looks very uncertain: 65% of them point to the 1.1300 zone, which has been the Pivot Point since mid-November 2021. The remaining 35% vote for the bears and do not rule out that the pair will test the support of 1.1100 again. Trend indicators on D1 are 90% red and 10% green. Among the oscillators, 80% are colored red, 20% are green. Given the current increased volatility, the nearest resistance is located in a wide area of 1.1285-1.1390. If the bulls do not stop there, their next target will be the highs of January 13 and February 10 at 1.1485, then 1.1525, 1.1570 and 1.1615. Support zones are 1.1185-1.1200 and 1.1085-1.1120. They are followed by the levels of summer 2020, which are hardly worth focusing on in the current unstable geopolitical situation. Although, it can be assumed that the bears will try to at least reach the symbolic horizon of 1.1000. As for the upcoming week's calendar, it will be quite busy. It is clear that the main focus will be on the events in Ukraine and the new sanctions associated with them from the EU and the US. In addition, there will be data on the consumer market in Germany and business activity (ISM) in the US manufacturing sector on Tuesday, March 01. There will be statistics on the consumer market of the Eurozone on Wednesday, March 02, and a report from ADP on employment in the private sector will be published in the USA. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will address Congress on the same day. The value of the ISM business activity index in the US services sector will become known on Thursday. And in addition to data on retail sales in the Eurozone, we are traditionally waiting for a portion of statistics from the US labor market, including the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) on the first Friday of the month, March 04. GBP/USD: Great Britain Is Europe as Well Although the United Kingdom has left the European Union, it has not ceased to be part of Europe. Therefore, everything that has been said about the EU and the Eurozone is also relevant for the UK. The only difference is the numbers. Thus, the maximum volatility of the week for the GBP/USD pair was 366 points (falling from 1.3638 to 1.3272), and the finish, after the correction, fell at 1.3410. We can now forget about consolidation around 1.3600. Just like the EU, the UK was very quick to impose sanctions on Russia and the Prime Minister issued an extremely tough and angry statement condemning the military operation in Ukraine. The consequences of such a step will be quite serious not only for the Russian, but also for the British economy. Suffice it to say that British Petroleum is one of the largest foreign investors in Russia and a shareholder of Rosneft. And the British banks have very close contacts with the largest Russian corporations and individuals. In addition, both countries have banned flights of national airlines over each other's territories. Experts' forecast for the GBP/USD pair for the next week is as follows: 40% of them vote for the movement to the north and 40% for the movement to the south, the remaining 20% vote for the sideways trend. Almost all indicators on D1 are colored red. Among trend indicators, these are 100%, among oscillators these are 85%. Only 15% of them have reacted to the upward correction of the pair. Supports are located at 1.3400, 1.3365 and 1.3275-1.3315, then 1.3200 and the low of 08 December 2021, 1.3160. Resistance levels are 1.3485, 1.3600, 1.3645, 1.3700-1.3740, 1.3830 and 1.3900. Following the results of February, we will have a fairly large package of macroeconomic statistics related to the British economy this week. The manufacturing business activity index (PMI) will be published on Tuesday, March 01, the composite index and the index of business activity in the services sector on Thursday, and a similar index in the construction sector - on Friday. The annual budget of the United Kingdom, which will be made public on Wednesday 02 March, is of interest as well. USD/JPY: Japan Is Not Europe Japan is the one who practically did not react to the war in Ukraine. This is understandable: Kyiv and Tokyo are separated by 8205 kilometers. Japan, of course, joined the sanctions against Russia, but this made almost no impression on the dynamics of the USD/JPY pair. Rather, it was influenced by the rise in prices for energy resources, on which the economy of this country is quite dependent. As a result, having bounced off the level of 114.40 on Thursday, February 24, the pair rose to a height of 115.75, and put the last chord a little lower, at the level of 115.52. Summing up the results of the week, it can be noted that the fluctuation of the pair's quotes was quite insignificant: only 57 points (115.03-115.60). Analysts' forecasts for the coming week look like this: 55% are in favor of the pair's growth, 35% are in favor of its fall, and 10% are in favor of a sideways trend. Among the oscillators on D1, 65% are green, 20% are red, and 15% are neutral grey. For trend indicators, 65% look up, 35% take the opposite position. The nearest resistance zone is 115.70. The main goal of the bulls is to renew the high of 116.34 and rise to where the pair has not been seen since January 2017. Support levels are at 115.00, 114.80, 114.15, 113.75, 113.45, 113.20, 112.55 and 112.70. No significant economic events are expected in Japan next week. CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bitcoin and Ethereum Prove to Be More Reliable Than Stocks The main factor putting pressure on the crypto market was the expectation of an increase in interest rates by the US central bank a week ago. Russia's possible invasion of Ukraine was number two. It has now moved to the forefront, from assumption to fact. The aggravation of the geopolitical situation associated with this increased the flight of investors from risky assets and led to a further fall in both stock indices and digital currency quotes. The 90-day correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 reached its highest level since October 2020. This is stated in the analytical report of Arcane Research. The statistical relationship between virtual gold and real gold, on the contrary, has become negative, since gold, unlike BTC, is a low-risk asset. Arcane Research has also noted that bitcoin spot trading volume on centralized exchanges has fallen to early December 2020 levels. Bitcoin is commonly opposed to the dollar, being called insurance against inflation. But if you look at the charts of the last week, BTC is more likely an insurance within the market for risky assets: stock prices have fallen much faster since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine than the quotes of leading cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ethereum. The S&P500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq stock indices fell below the lows of a month ago in a few hours on the very first day of the bombing and rocket attacks, February 24. There is no need to talk about the Russian IMOEX index: it lost almost 50% in just a few hours, after which trading was stopped. Unlike all of them, the BTC/USD and ETH/USD pairs held their positions courageously above the January 24 low. Of course, this is not a reason to rejoice. Expectations of a key rate hike by the US Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions will continue to feed the pessimism of bitcoin investors, and therefore the likelihood of selling unprofitable coins will continue to grow. This is the conclusion reached by Glassnode analysts. The bearish trend is confirmed by on-chain indicators: the number of active bitcoin addresses has dropped to the lower boundary of the corridor. This indicates a decrease in demand for the asset. The share of bitcoin investors in profit is currently in the range between 65.8% and 76.7%. Short-term speculators (coin holding period less than 155 days) have purchased 2.56 million BTC. The average acquisition cost is $47,200. Their unrealized loss is about 17%, with the price around $39.000. They are currently a source of sales pressure in the absence of an equivalent increase in demand. Glassnode believes that if the price rises, the pressure of sellers may increase, who will try to leave the market without losses or with a minimum profit. According to Du Jun, CEO of Huobi crypto exchange, past price cycles indicate that a new bull market for bitcoin may not occur until late 2024 or early 2025. According to him, bitcoin's price cycles are closely related to halvings: periodic block reward halvings embedded in the algorithm, which occur approximately every four years. The last halving took place in May 2020, and the quotes of the first cryptocurrency reached an all-time high above $68,000 a year later. A similar price movement was observed after the 2016 halving: bitcoin reached record levels in December 2017. Then deep drops in the price of digital gold followed in both cases. Based on the trend, Huobi CEO believes that “we are now in the early stages of a bear market” and expects a bullish trend for bitcoin to come only after the next halving in 2024. At the same time, he added that “it is difficult to predict accurately in reality, since there are many other factors that can affect the market, such as geopolitical issues, including war, or the COVID-19 pandemic.” Kevin O'Leary, the star of the Shark Tank business reality show, also announced his forecast. He notes that many institutional investors cannot yet invest in the leading cryptocurrency, as this issue has not yet been resolved at the level of regulators. O'Leary has noted that anyone who wants to speculate about the cost of BTC at $100,000, $200,000, $300,000 should understand that all this will become possible when institutionalists finally have the opportunity to purchase a crypto asset in accordance with regulatory standards. He notes that he can say this with confidence, as he works with "sovereign wealth funds and pension plans." And although there is a lot of buzz around BTC right now, none of them have a single token. Moreover, they do not even plan investments in this asset yet. According to O'Leary, it is much better to think of BTC not as a coin, but as software. He has noted that the above institutions have shares in Microsoft and Google, so it will be easier for them to understand if they regard cryptocurrencies as software. At a time when the crypto sector begins to meet all the requirements, these financial institutions will be able to invest 1% to 3% of their capital in bitcoin, and this can happen within the next 2-3 years. Against this not very joyful background, the interview given by Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, to Bloomberg, can be considered the height of optimism. First, he is not yet sure that the “crypto winter” has really arrived. And secondly, he believes that such a “winter” can help the industry become stronger. Buterin emphasized in the interview with the agency that in fact, people “deeply immersed in the cryptocurrency industry” welcome periods of the bear market. This allows to get rid of weak projects, and also reduces the level of "hype". It is in the “winter” that many weak and harmful projects disappear, and only reliable, important projects remain, that have well-thought-out business models and a close-knit team, the developer believes. Looking to the near term, Arcane Research analysts believe that the strongest support range lies in the $28,000-$30,000 zone, as the "summer 2021 bear market bottom" is located there. They have named $40,000 as an important resistance level. At the time of writing this review (Friday evening, February 25), the BTC/USD pair is trading around $39,000. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dipped a little into the Fear zone, falling from 30 to 27 points in a week, while the total crypto market capitalization has fallen from $1.815 trillion seven days ago to $1.755 trillion. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Results of February 2022: Bitcoin and Gold Are Leading Again Among NordFX Traders NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in February 2022. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed. The first place in the ranking of the most successful traders was taken by a client from Southeast Asia, account No. 1416XXX, who received a profit of 82,636 USD on transactions, most of which were carried out in pairs with bitcoin (BTC/USD), S&P500 and Dow Jones stock indices, and with oil. The second place belongs to the owner of account No. 1602XXX. This trader earned 22,046 USD during the month, and their earnings were based on operations with bitcoin (BTC/USD), gold (XAU/USD) and silver (XAG/USD). Another trader from Asia, who took the third step of the podium (account No. 1617XXX), also used the XAU/USD pair as a trading instrument. Their profit for February was USD 18,059. The situation in NordFX passive investment services is as follows: - CopyTrading still has an active provider under the nickname KennyFxPro. Signal with the complex name KennyFXPRO - Journey of $205 to $5,000 has shown a profit of 149% since March 2021 with a maximum drawdown of 67%. As before, almost all trades were made with NZD/CAD, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD pairs. Such a famous pair as EUR/USD got only 0.27% in their arsenal. Startup signals include NVT Capital (388% income with 41% drawdown) and Thuytien1707 (25% with less than 10% drawdown). Both signals exist for only 14 days. And such a short life span is an additional risk factor for subscribers. - In the PAMM service, we once again mark the manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO. They increased their capital on the KennyFXPro-the Multi 3000 EA account by 73% in 400 days with a fairly moderate drawdown of less than 16%. In addition, investors can pay attention to the TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 account, which showed a profit of 52% in 330 days with a drawdown of 16%, and NKFX-Ninja 136 , which has brought income of 40% since June 11, 2021 with a drawdown of about 15%. Interestingly, the EUR/USD pair is also missing among the trading instruments here. The vast majority of transactions were made with NZD/CAD, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD. Among the IB partners of NordFX, the TOP-3 also includes representatives of Central and Southeast Asia: - the largest commission, 10.498 USD, was credited to a partner with account No.1593ХXХ; - the next is the partner (account No. 1371ХХХ), who received 9.410 USD; - and, finally, the partner with account No. 1336xxx, who received 5.789 USD as a reward, closes the top three. Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 CryptoNews of the Week - According to Bloomberg, the National Security Council of the White House and the US Treasury Department appealed to the operators of the world's largest centralized exchanges with a request to stop any attempts to circumvent the sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. The White House spokesman said that cryptocurrencies are not a replacement for the US dollar, which is widely used in the Russian Federation. However, the US authorities intend to combat their misuse. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde also called for increased regulation of digital assets in the euro area. At least four cryptocurrency exchanges, including Coinbase and Gemini, have said they will take steps to tighten controls. At the same time, experts interviewed by The New York Times noted that Russian companies have many other tools at their disposal to circumvent the imposed restrictions, including the digital ruble and ransomware. - The number of bitcoin addresses with balances over 1,000 BTC increased by more than 6% to 2,226 on Monday, February 28. The indicator has not reached this level since March 2021. The number of addresses with a balance of 100 to 1000 BTC also increased on February 28, although not as noticeably. The indicator increased by 1.3% during the day, to 15,929. This is evidenced by the data of the Glassnode service. Some analysts suggest that such a rapid increase in the number of bitcoin whales is due to the attempts of the Russian elites to withdraw their assets to circumvent the sanctions. - The dynamics of the cryptocurrencies’ movement between private and exchange wallets indicates the lack of certainty among investors regarding the further developments in the digital asset market. This is written by CoinDesk with reference to the report of Bank of America (BofA). According to analysts, the tightening of the Fed's policy and macroeconomic factors will limit the growth of cryptocurrencies in the next six months. However, BofA emphasized that this will not be the beginning of a new "crypto winter", as the level of adoption of digital assets by users and the activity of developers has increased significantly. BofA specialists noted that the observed outflow of bitcoin from exchanges indicates the exhaustion of the sellers' momentum. At the same time, the influx of ethereum to the addresses of these platforms may indicate potential pressure on the price of the cryptocurrency which is second in terms of capitalization. The bank also added that it will be difficult for the digital asset market to move out of the current price range until fears of a possible recession are discarded. - Tesla board member Kimbal Musk, brother of the company founder Elon Musk, told TechCrunch that they had no idea about its environmental impact when they made the decision to buy $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin. “We were very clueless when we invested in bitcoin. We had no idea about the impact on the environment, it seemed to us a good store of value and a way to diversify assets. And it certainly didn't take long to get a million - I'm not kidding, probably no less - messages about what we're doing to the environment." “I don’t really agree with the environmental impact of cryptocurrencies, but I love what it does,” Kimbal Musk added, expressing his hope that, broadly speaking, the blockchain industry will move towards a greener infrastructure. - According to Voyager Digital CEO Stephen Ehrlich, cryptocurrencies are becoming stronger in the global financial system and will become a haven for future generations. He noted that the overall growth of the cryptocurrency ecosystem is manifested in increasing programs that allow employees of various organizations to receive part of their salaries in bitcoins. According to Erlich, the fact that people are ready not only to trade in cryptocurrency, but also to work for it, is a clear sign of the growth of the industry. - A study by recruitment company Deel says that more and more employees of companies are willing to receive part of their salaries in cryptocurrency. Analysts studied more than 100,000 contracts offered to workers living in 150 countries. 52% of respondents in Latin America receive full or partial salary in cryptocurrency, 34% in Africa and the Middle East, and 7% in North America and the Asia-Pacific region. Bitcoin is followed by Ethereum (ETH), Dash (DASH), Solana (SOL) and USD Coin (USDC). The number of vacancies representing the blockchain industry is also growing rapidly around the world. LinkedIn published a study in January that said that the number of such vacancies soared by almost 400% last year. - A group of hackers claim to have hacked Nvidia servers. It is currently trying to sell miners data that can be used to easily unlock the “Lite Hash Rate” limiter from RTX 3000 video cards and use them for mining ethereum. The LAPSUS$ hacker group claimed responsibility for the hack, adding that they managed to steal 1 terabyte of data from the company's servers. This is reported by the industry publication PCmag. - Not only popular bloggers and bank analysts are leaning towards the Hodl strategy at present, but also robots. “Hodling” is a way to accumulate bitcoins and the most correct trading strategy, this is the conclusion of an AI trading robot created by Portuguese software developer Tiago Vasconcelos. The coder "trained the bot, explained the rules, candles, principles when you can either buy or sell, or do nothing." The bot receives one point for each profitable trade and loses it as a "punishment" for unprofitable trades. The robot advisor makes thousands/millions of attempts with this data set, making moves to maximize the trading account balance. Recall that Hodl is a popular meme in the bitcoin space that originated from a post on the Bitcointalk forum in 2013 with a typo in the word “hold”. - According to well-known economist and analyst Alex Kruger, “Everyone is investing in precious metals now. This is what the market situation tells us. It could be even worse: China invades Taiwan, Russia takes over even more countries. Then the market will fall further.” “Russia using cryptocurrency to circumvent the sanctions would lead the digital asset market to a bearish scenario. Don't expect this to happen. But be careful what you do,” he wrote. Kruger suggests that the sanctions circumvention will be enough for U.S. regulators to ban digital assets in order to protect national security. However, if the geopolitical situation does not worsen, investors will soon see their growth. - Popular Hollywood actor and film producer Ryan Reynolds has joined the list of celebrities who support the crypto industry. he has recently given an interview to the Bloomberg Markets business publication, in which he stated that the sphere of virtual money is doomed to gain a foothold in the global financial market as a serious player and competitor. “I am absolutely not surprised that cryptocurrency has become a major player in the global financial market, it has been going to this for a very long time. Of course, people's fears about some flaws in its security slow down this process significantly. However, in the context of this issue, one cannot underestimate the efforts of companies whose activities are aimed at making the trading of digital assets safer and, more importantly, accessible,” said Reynolds. It is worth adding that a large number of Ryan Reynolds' colleagues have recently joined the crypto community. For example, Reese Witherspoon invested in ethereum a few months ago, Paris Hilton does not hide her love for bitcoin, Matt Damon, in turn, is the face of the CryptoCom marketing campaign. But there is no information about whether Reynolds himself is a holder of cryptocurrencies. As part of the interview, he answered this question with only a mysterious smile. - Legendary trader Henrik Zeberg, author of The Zeberg Report and expert on macroeconomic cycles, presented three charts to show that major stocks and cryptocurrencies are poised to rise in Elliot Wave 5. According to Zeberg, the most important stock market indices S&P500 and Nasdaq are approaching bullish reversals on the weekly charts. If his prediction comes true, bitcoin could once again increase its correlation with stocks and indices. - Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Strategist Mike McGlone gave another forecast for the future value of bitcoin. He assured that the BTC rate will reach $100,000 in 2022. The analyst also emphasized that the price of the flagship digital currency will not drop to $30,000 despite the bearish sentiment in the market. The expert once again noted that bitcoin is confidently moving towards becoming an international reserve asset. Against the background of the policy of the US Federal Reserve and the war between Russia and Ukraine, this main cryptocurrency is getting closer to the full status of digital gold. The strategist also believes that such coins as Dogecoin must lose their influence in order for bitcoin to finally establish itself as a reliable tool for protecting money savings. Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 New NordFX Super Lottery: 202 Prizes in 2022 The NordFX brokerage company started a new super lottery on March 1, which will give away 200 cash prizes of 250, 500 and 1,250 USD, as well as 2 two super prizes of 10,000 USD each. The total prize fund will be 100,000 USD. Unlike traders' competitions, the undoubted advantage of this NordFX lottery is that its participants do not have to show exceptional results in trading in the financial markets. Both experienced professionals and beginners have equal chances of winning in this case. Another advantage is that lottery winners receive their winnings not as bonuses, but as real money, which, if they wish, can be either used in further trading or withdrawn without any restrictions. The first lottery was held in 2021 and was a great success: more than 20 thousand tickets participated in it. The draws were held online using an electronic lottery drum, and everyone could follow them. And now, a year later, the NordFX brokerage company has decided to hold a new lottery. Its slogan is More Prizes, More Winners. 202 prizes will be drawn in 2022 in three stages: 140 prizes of $250, 40 prizes of $500, 20 prizes of $1,250 and 2 super prizes of $10,000. Draws will take place on July 04, October 04, 2022, and January 04, 2023. It is very easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. It is enough to have a Pro account in NordFX (and for those who do not have it - register and open a new one), top it up with $200 and... just trade. Having made a trading turnover of only 2 lots in Forex currency pairs or gold (or 4 lots in silver), the trader will automatically receive a virtual lottery ticket. The number of such lottery tickets for one participant is not limited. The more deposits and the greater the turnover, the more lottery tickets the participant will have, and the greater their chances of becoming a winner. (If you look at the statistics of the last lottery, you will see that some of its most active participants were able to win two, and even three prizes). Visit the NordFX website for more details. You can become a participant of the Super Lottery 2022 and start receiving lottery tickets right now. Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for March 07 - 11, 2022 EUR/USD: The Fate of the Euro Is Decided in Ukraine Macro statistics were mixed last week. But few people pay attention to it at the moment. The dynamics of European currencies is determined by what is happening in Ukraine for the second week now. The escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict is intensifying, increasing the demand for risk-free assets. And it is the dollar that acts as such, not the pan-European currency. The difference in the monetary policies of the Fed and the ECB pushed the EUR/USD pair down both in 2021 and in January-February 2022. The tragic events of recent days have only given it an additional downward impetus. How else can the market react, say, to a rocket attack in the area of Europe's largest Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, located in southern Ukraine? The fire that arose not far from its power units was extinguished, but this did not make it any easier: Chernobyl has not been forgotten in Europe yet, and no one wants a new nuclear catastrophe that could claim millions of lives. The negative outlook is reinforced by the extraordinarily tough economic sanctions that the EU has imposed against Russia to support Ukraine. They create huge problems in the supply of Russian energy resources to the EU, seriously limit industrial trade, and tighten the banking sector in a grip. It is difficult to imagine how, in such a situation, the ECB will be able to curtail monetary stimulus and raise interest rates. As for the US Federal Reserve, this regulator is unlikely to abandon its plans. Speaking in Congress on Wednesday, March 02, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell named a number of advantages of the US currency. The first is the flight of investors from risk to such safe-haven assets as the dollar due to the events in Ukraine. Other trump cards include divergence in monetary policy with European countries and the growth of the US economy. By the way, such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP) has confirmed Powell's words, showing real growth to 678K against a forecast of 400K (481K a month ago). Also, the US Central Bank believes that due to the events in Ukraine and the influence of Russia on commodity markets, inflation will be higher than previously predicted. And this, as Jerome Powell said, will require a more vigorous increase in interest rates. That is, they may be even higher by the end of 2022 than the market expects. The previous week's forecast suggested that the EUR/USD pair would retest support at 1.1100, after which the bears would try to reach the landmark horizon of 1.1000. Such a scenario seemed very bold and almost unbelievable on February 25. But the events described above led to the fact that the pair easily broke through the seemingly "impenetrable" support of 1.1000 and collapsed to 1.0885, having lost 385 points in a week. The last chord, after a small correction, sounded at the level of 1.0932. Amid mounting geopolitical tensions, the euro has lost more than 600 points to the dollar since February 10 and is now rapidly approaching the 2020 lows. And it is not far to parity 1:1. It is extremely difficult to predict where the bottom will be in the current situation. It was at around 1.0635 in 2020, the pair was falling to 1.0325 in 2016. Perhaps these values will become support levels. As for the bulls, taking into account the increased volatility, their immediate goal is a return to the 1.1000 zone, followed by resistance in the 1.1100-1.1125 area, then a wide zone of 1.1280-1.1390, then - the highs of January 13 and February 10 in the 1.1485 area. However, the pair will be able to achieve them only if hostilities cease or, at least, when a stable truce is concluded. Most analysts hope for the best: 65% of them vote for the fact that EUR/USD will be able to return to at least 1.1200 within March. But trend indicators and oscillators on D1 have a completely different opinion: they are all colored red, although 25% of the latter are in the oversold zone. As for economic statistics, data on retail sales in Germany will be published on Monday, March 07, then the data on GDP in the Eurozone on Tuesday. The event of the week can be Thursday, March 10, when the ECB meeting will take place. The interest rate is likely to remain the same at 0%, so the subsequent press conference of the regulator's management will be of more interest. Data on the US consumer market will come out on the same day, and we will find out the values of the harmonized consumer price index in Germany and the US University of Michigan consumer confidence index at the very end of the week, on Friday, March 11. GBP/USD: Great Britain Is Europe as Well The EU's dependence on Russian gas was about 45-50% before the introduction of sanctions. Unlike the countries of the European Union, the UK is practically independent of Russian gas supplies: this figure is less than 3%. Its trade turnover with the Russian Federation is much lower as well. And geographically, it is separated from the zone of the armed Russian-Ukrainian conflict by about 2,000 kilometers. All these factors helped the GBP/USD pair to stay in a sideways trend for several days. But against the backdrop of events around the Zaporizhzhya NPP, it still could not resist and updated the February 24 low, dropping to the level of 1.3201. The week finished at 1.3246. The experts' forecast for the pair for the next week is as follows: 50% of them vote for moving north and 25% for further movement to the south, the remaining 25% vote for a sideways trend. The indicator readings on D1 fully coincide with the readings for the EUR/USD pair. Strong support lies at 1.3170 (December 2021 lows), followed by 2020 supports. Resistance levels are 1.3270-1.3325, 1.3400, 1.3485, 1.3600, 1.3640. Highlights of the upcoming week include the release of retail sales data for the UK on Tuesday March 08, and the release of UK output and GDP on Friday March 11. USD/JPY: Yen or Dollar: Which Safe Haven Is Better? Japan is even further from Ukraine than the UK, as much as 8,000 kilometers. Although it has joined the sanctions against Russia, this has not ceased to be a safe haven for investors. Therefore, everything that literally makes Europe feverish does not affect the dynamics of the USD/JPY pair. It continued to move along the 115.00 horizon last week, fluctuating in the range of 114.65-115.77. And it completed the five-day working week not far from its lower border, at 114.81. This decrease occurred on Friday, March 04, not because of the shelling of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, but because of the fall in the yield of US Treasury bonds. That is, when the dollar rose against the euro and the pound, it fell against the yen. Competition between these two safe-haven assets will undoubtedly continue next week. 75% of analysts believe that the pair will return to the upper limit of the channel, while 25% believe that it may fall further down. As is usually the case in such situations, disagreements immediately arise among the indicators. Among the trend indicators on D1, 65% are for selling, 35% for buying. Among the oscillators, 20% vote for the purchase, 25% vote for the neutral status and 55% are for the sale, but at the same time, a quarter of them have signaled that the pair is oversold. The nearest resistance zone is 115.00-115.25, then 115.70. The main goal of the bulls is to renew the high of 116.34 and rise to where the pair has not been seen since January 2017. Support levels and zones: 114.40-114.65, 114.15, 113.75, 113.45, 113.20, 112.55 and 112.70. The release of any significant macro statistics on the state of the Japanese economy, with the exception of data on GDP on Wednesday, March 09, is not expected next week. CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Sanctions, Bitcoin and What Robots Choose Immediately after the Bank of Russia asset freeze due to hostilities in Ukraine, bitcoin trading volumes increased sharply on Monday, February 28, and the coin itself jumped in price by almost 17% (from $37,840 to $44,220). The number of bitcoin addresses with balances over 1,000 BTC increased by more than 6% to 2,226. The indicator had not reached this level since March 2021. The number of addresses with a balance of 100 to 1000 BTC also increased on February 28, although not as noticeably. The indicator increased by 1.3%, to 15,929 over the day. This is evidenced by the data of the Glassnode service. Some analysts suggest that such a rapid increase in the number of bitcoin whales is due to the attempts of the Russian elites to withdraw their assets to circumvent the sanctions and convert the depreciating rubles into cryptocurrency. According to Bloomberg, the National Security Council of the White House and the US Treasury Department appealed to the operators of the world's largest centralized exchanges with a request to stop any attempts to circumvent the sanctions imposed on Russia. The White House spokesman said that cryptocurrencies are not a replacement for the US dollar, which is widely used in the Russian Federation. However, the US authorities intend to combat their misuse. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde also called for increased regulation of digital assets in the euro area. At least four cryptocurrency exchanges, including Coinbase and Gemini, have said they will take steps to tighten controls. According to well-known economist and analyst Alex Kruger, if Russia uses cryptocurrencies to circumvent sanctions, this will be enough for US regulators to ban digital assets altogether. "Don't expect this to happen. But be careful in your actions,” he warned, adding that if the geopolitical situation does not worsen, investors will soon see the growth of the crypto market. The dynamics of the cryptocurrencies’ movement between private and exchange wallets indicates the lack of certainty among investors regarding the further developments in the digital asset market. This is written by CoinDesk with reference to the report of Bank of America (BofA). According to analysts, the tightening of the Fed's policy and macroeconomic factors will limit the growth of cryptocurrencies in the next six months. However, BofA emphasized that this will not be the beginning of a new "crypto winter", as the level of adoption of digital assets by users and the activity of developers has increased significantly. The bank also added that it will be difficult for the digital asset market to move out of the current price range until fears of a possible recession are discarded. After the jump on February 28, the upward movement of the BTC/USD pair slowed down on March 01-02, when approaching the strong $45,000 resistance zone. And then, after an unsuccessful attempt to break further up, it turned back to the south. (Recall that this resistance had already sent the pair down several times in January-February). If the flagship currency still manages to rise above $45,700 at some point, we can expect its further growth to $47,000-50,000 due to the triggering of a large number of buy orders. Legendary trader Henrik Zeberg, author of The Zeberg Report and expert on macroeconomic cycles, presented three charts to show that major stocks and cryptocurrencies are poised to rise in Elliot Wave 5. According to Zeberg, the most important stock market indices S&P500 and Nasdaq are approaching bullish reversals on the weekly charts. If his prediction comes true, bitcoin could once again increase its correlation with stocks and indices. At the time of writing (the evening of March 04), the BTC/USD pair is trading around $39,300, the total market capitalization, after rising to $1.963 trillion, returned to the values of a week ago at $1.755 trillion, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index grew by only 6 points (from 27 to 33 points), having firmly stuck in the zone of Fear. Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Strategist Mike McGlone reiterated that bitcoin is well on its way to becoming an international reserve asset. He assured that the BTC rate will reach $100,000 in 2022. The analyst also emphasized that the price of the flagship digital currency will not drop to $30,000 despite the bearish sentiment in the market. McGlone also believes that such coins as Dogecoin must lose their influence in order for bitcoin to finally establish itself as a reliable tool for protecting money savings. An AI robot advisor created by Portuguese software developer Tiago Vasconcelos has supported Bloomberg Intelligence's chief strategist's point of view. The coder "trained the bot, explained the rules, candles, principles when you can either buy or sell, or do nothing." The bot receives one point for each profitable trade and loses it as a "punishment" for unprofitable trades. having talen thousands/millions of steps to increase the balance of the trading account, the robot advisor eventually opted for a “hodling” strategy, that is, accumulating bitcoin. (Recall that Hodl is a popular meme in the bitcoin space that arose from a message on the Bitcointalk forum in 2013 with a misprint in the word “hold”). NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 CryptoNews of the Week - US President Joe Biden will sign a decree regulating the digital assets. Bloomberg writes about this citing informed sources. The document will instruct federal agencies to study potential changes in legislation, as well as the impact of cryptocurrencies on national security and economy. Analysts believe that the decree was the result of fears that organizations and individuals could use digital assets to circumvent sanctions against Russia due to military actions in Ukraine. - The sanctions imposed by the world community against Russia can cause a rapid increase in the price of bitcoin. This was stated by legendary billionaire investor and founder of Miller Value Partners Bill Miller in an interview with CNBC. “Russia keeps 16% of its reserves, which are estimated at $640 billion, in dollars, and 32% in euros. Almost 50% of its reserves are held in currencies controlled by people who want to harm it. This is not the best situation, from Russia's point of view," Miller said. The billionaire called the current geopolitical situation “unique” and emphasized that this is an “extremely bullish signal” for bitcoin. He also believes that the Russian government may try to use digital gold as a reserve currency. - Well-known businessman and writer, author of the book “Rich Dad Poor Dad”, Robert Kiyosaki accused Joe Biden of “destroying the dollar” and gave people advice on how to fend off inflation. “Biden likes inflation,” he said. “In response to his criminal actions, I am investing in oil companies from Texas and North Dakota. I have just purchased a gold mine in Utah. I buy apartments and houses in Texas. I am saving gold, silver and bitcoins...” “Invest like a capitalist,” Kiyosaki summed up. - The world of digital assets has been recently stirred up by the news that the journalist of the authoritative American magazine Forbes, Laura Shin, released the book “The Cryptopians: Idealism, Greed, Lies, and the Making of the First Big Cryptocurrency Craze”. The author shows the cryptocurrency market as it really is in this book. The writer focuses on the large-scale struggle of the rich for influence and leadership in the coming revolution in the “new money” industry. Shin introduces readers to prominent figures in the digital space, such as Vitalik Buterin, Web3 prodigy, Charles Hoskinson, and Joe Labin (a former Goldman Sachs vice president who became one of the most famous cryptocurrency billionaires). “Sparks fly as these prominent personalities fight for their place in what seems to be a limitless new business world,” the author writes, describing the “crypto clans” confrontation. - According to analysts from IntoTheBlock, the correlation between bitcoin and precious metals has fallen to its lowest level since August 2021. Thus, it has reached a 7-month low in relation to gold and silver. Experts believe that these changes have occurred against the backdrop of a military operation that Russia is conducting on the territory of Ukraine. Bitcoin is highly correlated with the traditional stock market while commodity prices continue to rise. According to experts, indicators that assess the return on an asset and the degree of risk demonstrate how much better precious metals have reacted to the resulting volatility compared to the flagship cryptocurrency. The experts have also noted that the majority of bitcoin holders (57%) have not been affected by the recent price fluctuations of the coin. Many holders keep their virtual assets for more than a year, which means they still have positive returns. - A cryptanalyst known as Dave the Wave stated In May 2021 that bitcoin will not be able to rise to the level of $100,000 before the end of the year. He turned out to be right. His forecast looks somewhat more optimistic now. According to it, the price of the main cryptocurrency should update its historical maximum in 2022. Dave the Wave has published the BTC price chart and explained that despite bitcoin falling below $40,000, it is still on its way to $100,000. Against the background of the collapse of the global market, the coin has a chance for a steady rebound from the $36,000 mark. However, the analyst does not rule out that the bitcoin rate may fall to $25,000 before it goes up. - Well-known crypto analyst and trader Michael van de Poppe believes that bitcoin may continue its fall to $30,000 against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. "Why?" he asks. And he answers: “Because of a short-term panic. You should understand that traders are people who are focused on the short term, are very impulsive, emotional, and this is what the markets reflect.” At the same time, Michael van de Popp notes that the current recession is a good opportunity for those who are still optimistic about the first cryptocurrency to replenish its reserves. As for the altcoins led by ethereum, according to the trader, they are under strong selling pressure in the current situation, which could push them further down until the ethereum reaches the $2,000 mark. - Kimbal Musk, younger brother of billionaire Elon Musk, said in a recent interview that the main problem with digital currencies is their impact on the environment. Therefore, they are doomed to failure in the form in which crypto assets currently exist. The planet will face an ecological crisis if humanity does not figure out how to make them safer for nature. Kimbal Musk not only sits on the board of directors of Tesla and SpaceX, but also runs The Kitchen, a chain of “green” restaurants, and is the founder of Big Green DAO, a “decentralized charity” project. The businessman's net worth exceeds $700 million. - Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and former White House Communications Director, believes that any investor should invest at least a little of their capital in bitcoin. The businessman stated in an interview with Magnifi that investors should buy BTC even if they have never worked with cryptocurrencies before. According to Scaramucci, cold-blooded holders who know how to wait will benefit in the future. He is confident that bitcoin is guaranteed to reach $100,000 in a couple of years. The entrepreneur stores about $1 billion in bitcoins at the moment. The former White House communications director is confident that the United States will not seek to tighten regulation of cryptocurrencies: “I don’t think the US wants to lose leadership in financial services. If they decide to ban or over-regulate digital currencies, we will see capital flight and brain flight out of the country.” - “The scaling up of bitcoin is accelerating the process of building a new financial system. We have witnessed a global evolution of the payment infrastructure,” said Zoltan Pozar, strategist at Credit Suisse. In his opinion, the structure that was formed after the Second World War is gradually being destroyed, and geopolitical tensions have only accelerated this process. While it is difficult to say in what direction the global economy will develop, however, according to the Credit Suisse strategist, bitcoin has a very good chance of becoming the main payment instrument. - A similar point of view is shared by billionaire and CEO of Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz, according to whom bitcoin and gold will become the safest assets in the near future. “You can put an equal sign between these two instruments and stop the discussion about what is more important, BTC or precious metals,” Novogratz said. Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for March 14 - 18, 2022 EUR/USD: Mega Event of the Week: US Federal Reserve Meeting As expected, the main event of the past week was Thursday, March 10th, thanks to the meeting of the European Central Bank. The interest rate was left at the same level of 0%, and this was no surprise to anyone. But despite the absolute predictability of this decision, the EUR/USD pair first soared to 1.1120 after the statement of the regulator, and then fell below 1.1000. It's all about the failed attempt to "feed" both hawks and doves. On the one hand, the ECB surprised everyone with its hawkish decision to roll back QE more quickly. Asset buyback volumes under QE will be reduced from €40bn in April to €30bn in May and to €20bn in June, which is significantly ahead of the previous forecast. It had been Previously assumed that the reduction to €20 billion could occur only by October. However, the position of the ECB on the issue of raising the interest rate has become even more dovish than it was. The regulator stated Earlier that a very small time gap is planned between the QE curtailment and the subsequent rate hike. Now, according to the head of the Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, "any adjustment of the ECB key rate will occur only some time after the end of bond purchases and will be gradual." Such a dovish statement disappointed investors and pushed the EUR/USD pair down. An additional impetus to the sell-off of the euro came from the inflation report in the US, where consumer price growth reached a 40-year high. Thus, in monthly terms, the consumer price index increased from 0.6% to 0.8%, and in annual terms, inflation accelerated from 7.5% to 7.9%. These data further confirmed the markets in confidence that the increase in the US federal funds rate will take place already at the next Fed meeting, which is to be held next Wednesday, on March 16. Moreover, Jerome Powell, the head of the US Central Bank, said that he plans to propose a 0.25% rate increase at this meeting. Naturally, inflation is growing not only in the US, but also in Europe. The ECB raised its growth estimates in 2022 from 3.2% to 5.1%. And according to experts at Goldman Sachs, this figure could rise to 8%. But the divergence in monetary policy and economic prospects is clearly not on the EU's side. The geographical factor should also be taken into account: proximity to the zone of armed conflict in Ukraine, as well as Europe's dependence on Russian energy carriers. At present, Europe bears the main losses from the sanctions imposed against Russia. Analysts believe that it is facing a steady stagflation. The US is not immune from slowing economic growth either. But it is one of the world's leading oil suppliers and have significant shale gas reserves, so it will be much less affected by skyrocketing energy prices. In addition, savings accumulated by American households during the COVID-19 pandemic are now at an all-time high. This financial cushion dampens inflationary pressures, allowing the Fed to pursue a tighter monetary policy. The EUR/USD pair slightly won back the losses of February over the past week and completed the five-day period at the level of 1.0911. However, in the event of an escalation of hostilities in Ukraine and an increase in mineral fuel prices, the nearest strategic target for the bears will no doubt be a retest of the March 07 low of 1.0805. This will be followed by the 2020 low of 1.0635 and the 2016 low of 1.0325. In the previous review, we already expressed the idea that the quotes may be at the level of 1.0000 at some point. This forecast was supported by ABN Amro bank strategists, who consider the fall of the pair to parity as the baseline scenario. On the other hand, even a slight hint of a diplomatic settlement of the situation in Ukraine, not to mention the complete cessation of hostilities, can provide serious support to the common European currency and lead to its growth. Given the increased volatility, the nearest target for the bulls is a breakdown of the resistance zone around 1.1000. Then there are zones 1.1100-1.1125, 1.1280-1.1390 and the highs of January 13 and February 10 in the area of 1.1485. Analysts' opinions are distributed as follows. 50% of them vote for the fact that EUR/USD will be able to return to at least 1.1200 within March. 25% side with the bears, and the remaining 25% have taken a neutral position. Oscillators on D1 are 90% red, 10% are neutral gray. Trend indicators are 100% on the side of the bears. As for the calendar for the upcoming week, as already mentioned, the US Fed meeting on Wednesday, March 16 will be a mega event. And statistics on retail sales in the United States will be released a few hours before the release of the final commentary and the press conference of the regulator's leadership. Attention should be paid to the speech of the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde the next day, on Thursday, March 17, as well as to data from the consumer market of the Eurozone and from the US labor market. GBP/USD: What to Expect from the Bank of England? The EU's dependence on Russian gas was about 45-50% before the imposition of sanctions. Unlike the countries of the European Union, the UK is practically independent of Russian gas supplies: this figure is less than 3%. Its trade turnover with the Russian Federation is also much lower. And geographically, it is separated from the zone of the armed Russian-Ukrainian conflict by about 2,000 kilometers. All these factors enable the Bank of England, in contrast to its colleagues from the ECB, to act more decisively in the normalization of its monetary policy. There will also be a meeting of the Bank of England on March 17, the day after the Fed meeting. And it is quite possible that the decision of the UK regulator on the interest rate will depend on how much the US Central Bank will raise (or not raise) its rate on the eve. This is an additional factor of uncertainty when predicting the exchange rate of the British currency. Recall that the Bank of England was the first to raise the rate, raising it to 0.5%. But it is still unclear how long its hawkish fuse will last. Experts' forecast for the GBP/USD pair for the next week is as follows: 35% vote for the movement to the north, 35% - for further movement to the south, the remaining 20% vote for the sideways trend. However, when moving to a monthly forecast, bull supporters get a clear advantage: those are 65%, with 15% of the votes cast for bears and 20% of abstentions. All 100% of the indicators on D1 are facing south at the time of writing the review, however, 30% of the oscillators signal that the pair is oversold. The pound finished the weekly trading session at 1.3035. The nearest support is located in the zone 1.2985-1.3025, followed by the 2020 supports. Resistance levels are 1.3080, 1.3145, 1.3200, 1.3270-1.3325, 1.3400, 1.3485, 1.3600, 1.3640. Aside from the Bank of England meeting, next week's events include the publication of data from the UK labor market on Tuesday, March 15, including the average wage level in the country, as well as changes in the number of applications for unemployment benefits. USD/JPY: Markets Have Chosen the Dollar We put the question: “Yen or Dollar: Which Safe Haven Is Better?” in the title of the previous USD/JPY review, implying that when the market is in a panic, investors start looking for the safest place to store their capital. The dollar won this dispute last week. It not only won, but by a wide margin. Having started at 114.81, on Friday March 11, the USD/JPY pair peaked at 117.35, and the last chord of the week sounded a little lower at 117.25. Recall that the vast majority of experts (75%) predicted the growth of the pair, but almost no one expected the breakthrough to be so powerful and all-destroying. As a result of this blitzkrieg, the pair not only renewed the January-February high of 116.35 but reached the zone where it had been traded for a very, very long time, at the turn of 2016/2017. Experts cite the fact that the Bank of Japan still prefers to refrain from cutting economic stimulus, as the reason for such weak demand for the yen. As we have already written, the regulator believes that tightening monetary policy in the current conditions can bring more harm than good to the economy. Moreover, the country has also joined the sanctions against Russia, which deprives its export-oriented companies of a serious share of income. Against the backdrop of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it is also noteworthy that a peace treaty between Russia and Japan was never concluded at the end of World War II, and the countries are still formally at war. The reason is the disagreement regarding the ownership of South Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. And this issue has been raised again in recent days. Weak statistics played against the yen last week as well. Japan's GDP fell from 1.3% to 1.1% in the Q4 2021 instead of growing to 1.4%. In annual terms, this figure fell from 5.4% to 4.6%, which disappointed investors. As for the forecast, 80% of analysts believe that the pair's growth potential has already been exhausted, 20% adhere to the opposite point of view. There is almost complete unanimity among the indicators on D1, after such a powerful breakthrough to the north. 100% of trend indicators, as well as 90% of oscillators are looking up, although a third of them are already in the overbought zone. The remaining 10% of oscillators have taken a neutral position. Experts name 117.35, 117.70, 118.00 and 118.60 as resistance levels. Supports are located at levels and zones 117.00, 116.75, 116.35, 115.75, 115.00, 114.40-114.65, 114.15, 113.75. A regular meeting of the Bank of Japan will take place on Friday, March 18. But if the Bank of England has something to answer the US Federal Reserve, nothing of the kind can be expected from the Japanese regulator with its always negative (minus 0.1%) rate. The yen, as a safe-haven currency, is usually supported by investors running away from risky assets. However, judging by the events of the past week, they may give preference to the dollar. CRYPTOCURRENCIES: March 09 Mystery and the Secret Struggle of Crypto Clans Many were probably surprised by the unexpected jump in bitcoin on Wednesday March 09. The beginning of the week passed quite calmly: the bulls tried to break above $40,000, the bears tried to lower the quotes below $37,000. And then all of a sudden, in just a few hours, the BTC/USD pair soared by 10%, reaching a high of $42,520. Why did it happen? We have repeatedly said that the present and future of the crypto market is largely in the hands of the White House and the US central bank, and the jump on March 09 is an obvious proof of this. Bitcoin and other digital assets surged after the details of President Joe Biden's executive order were revealed. The document instructs federal agencies to study the impact of cryptocurrencies on national security and the economy by the end of the year, as well as outline the necessary changes in legislation. In particular, it is supposed to coordinate the work of the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), as well as the definition of roles for government agencies - from the State Department to the Department of Commerce. According to a number of analysts, the events in Ukraine prompted the preparation of this document by the White House. More precisely, the fear that some organizations and individuals may use digital assets to circumvent sanctions against Russia. But, whatever the reason, it doesn't change the point. Unlike, for example, China, which seeks to completely destroy this market, the United States, on the contrary, seems to want to develop this industry. And this was positively received by crypto investors. Such Washington's intentions were confirmed by Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and former White House Communications Director. He is confident that the United States will not tighten the noose around the neck of the crypto market: “I don’t think the US wants to lose its leadership in financial services. If they decide to ban or over-regulate digital currencies, we will see capital flight and brain flight out of the country.”| This businessman also stated in an interview with Magnifi that investors should buy BTC even if they have never worked with cryptocurrencies before. According to Scaramucci, cold-blooded holders who know how to wait will benefit in the future. He is confident that bitcoin is guaranteed to reach $100,000 in a couple of years. Note that the entrepreneur stores about $1 billion in bitcoins at the moment. Returning to the sanctions against Russia, they can cause the price of bitcoin to skyrocket, according to another billionaire, the legendary investor Bill Miller. “Almost 50% of its reserves are held by Russia in currencies controlled by people who want to harm it,” Miller said. In this regard, the Russian government may try to use digital gold as a reserve currency. And this, according to Miller, is a “very bullish signal” for bitcoin. The bullish sentiment was also supported by an authoritative cryptanalyst known as Dave the Wave. According to his forecast, the price of the main cryptocurrency should update its historical maximum in 2022. Dave the Wave has published the BTC price chart and explained that despite bitcoin falling below $40,000, it is still on its way to $100,000. Against the background of the collapse of the global market, the coin has a chance for a steady rebound from the $36,000 mark. The well-known crypto-analyst and trader Michael van de Poppe looks at the current situation quite differently. He believes that against the background of geopolitical tensions in the east of Europe, bitcoin can continue its fall to $30,000. "Why?" asks the specialist. And he answers: “Because of a short-term panic. You should understand that traders are people who are focused on the short term, are very impulsive, emotional, and this is what the markets reflect.” At the same time, Michael van de Popp notes that the current recession is a good opportunity for those who are still optimistic about the first cryptocurrency to replenish its reserves. As for the altcoins led by ethereum, according to the trader, they are under strong selling pressure in the current situation, which could push them further down until the ethereum reaches the $2,000 mark. According to Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, bitcoin and gold will become the safest assets in the near future. “You can put an equal sign between these two instruments and stop the discussion about what is more important, BTC or precious metals,” this billionaire said. However, there is no equality at the moment. On the contrary, according to analysts from IntoTheBlock, the correlation between bitcoin and precious metals has fallen to its lowest level since August 2021. Thus, it has reached a 7-month low in relation to gold and silver. Experts believe that these changes have occurred against the backdrop of a military operation that Russia is conducting on the territory of Ukraine. Bitcoin is highly correlated with the traditional stock market while commodity prices continue to rise. According to experts, indicators that assess the return on an asset and the degree of risk demonstrate how much better precious metals have reacted to the resulting volatility compared to the flagship cryptocurrency. The experts have also noted that the majority of bitcoin holders (57%) have not been affected by the recent price fluctuations of the coin. Many holders keep their virtual assets for more than a year, which means they still have positive returns. At the time of writing this review (the evening of March 11), after the jump on March 09, everything is back to normal: the BTC/USD pair is trading around $39,000, the total market capitalization, after rising to $1.854 trillion, returned to the values of a week ago at $1.740 trillion, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell from 27 to 22 points, finding itself in the Extreme Fear zone once again. And in conclusion, another tip in our joke crypto life hacks column. Recall that we talk in it about alternative ways to make money in this market. This time our advice is: “Try writing a crypto thriller.” An example is a bestseller that recently came out from the pen of Forbes journalist Laura Shin. Its title is very telling: The Cryptopians: Idealism, Greed, Lies, and the Making of the First Big Cryptocurrency Craze. The writer talks in this book about the large-scale struggle of the rich for influence and leadership in the “new money” industry. Shin introduces readers to prominent figures in the digital space, such as Vitalik Buterin, Web3 prodigy, Charles Hoskinson, and Joe Labin (a former Goldman Sachs vice president who became one of the most famous cryptocurrency billionaires). “Sparks fly as these prominent personalities fight for their place in what seems to be a limitless new business world,” the author writes, describing the “crypto clans” confrontation. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 CryptoNews of the Week - The Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament (ECON) adopted a bill on the regulation of cryptocurrencies by a majority of votes. “It is a good day for the crypto sector," said one of the drafters of the law. “The EU Parliament has paved the way for innovative regulation of cryptocurrencies that could set standards for the world.” It is also positive that the document has not included an amendment to ban mining on the Proof-of-Work consensus algorithm, which would de facto mean a ban on bitcoin. - Analytical company Elliptic said that it transferred to the US authorities some information about digital wallets allegedly associated with sanctioned Russian officials and oligarchs, Bloomberg reports. To support the sanctions regime against Russia, Elliptic employees have identified more than 400 virtual asset service providers (mostly exchanges) where cryptocurrencies can be purchased for rubles (according to analysts, turnover on these platforms tripled in a week). In addition, the company's specialists have identified several hundred thousand crypto wallets associated with sanctioned individuals and legal entities. - According to the latest data, large investors from Russia kept their cryptocurrency holdings on exchanges located in Switzerland. They expected that Switzerland, being a neutral country, would not be involved in any conflicts, so their digital assets were safe. However, Switzerland announced unexpectedly that it was joining the European sanctions. And now the Russian oligarchs are trying to save their assets. For example, Reuters reports that a cryptocurrency company (the name is not published) received orders from Swiss brokers to sell 125,000 bitcoins, which are worth about $5 billion, and convert them into cash. - MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor is known to be an ardent supporter of bitcoin. His company owns several billion dollars’ worth of cryptocurrencies. Sailor himself is confident that BTC will grow in price, as this asset forms a new financial system. During his recent speech at the Economic Club of New York, he compared cryptocurrencies to real estate that an investor purchases in an American metropolis. In the context of rising inflation, real estate retains the status of a reliable and profitable asset. In this regard, bitcoin can also be considered a safe-haven asset that is not subject to inflation risks. – Elon Musk agreed with Michael Saylor. His tweet referred to an article in the Financial Times about the rise in prices in commodity markets to highs since 2008 amid fears of cutting off the supply of raw materials from Russia and concluded that it is better to invest in physical assets and cryptocurrencies. “Buy a house or shares of a company that makes good products. By the way, I personally still hold bitcoin, ethereum and Dogecoin,” wrote the head of Tesla and SpaceX. - Peter Brandt, a well-known trader and analyst, a Wall Street legend, recommended almost the same thing to his more than 600,000 subscribers. According to news.bitcoin, he advised young people to "get a degree in their field, avoid student debt if possible, get a decent job, and think of the markets as a hobby." In addition, in his opinion, young people should be frugal, buy a house and start a family, and also invest part of their savings every month in bitcoin and in stocks of serious companies, while remaining hodlers. – According to Bill Barhydt, CEO of Abra crypto-bank, a steady decline in fees within the Ethereum network can serve as a driver for the growth of the asset to the $30,000-40,000 zone. Today, the Ethereum network is one of the most sought after in the industry, as it is used in the field of non-fungible tokens (NFT), DeFi decentralized finance, games, etc. The number of ethereum holders will only grow with the launch of Ethereum 2.0 and the launch of staking approaching. However, Bill Barhydt has not ruled out the possibility of selling small amounts of ETH in June or July. According to him, this will be a completely predictable correction against the backdrop of the growth of cryptocurrency. - According to analysts from IntoTheBlock, despite the fact that the price of bitcoin is far from the historical high, the number of holders of the flagship cryptocurrency has reached a record value. 39.79 million unique addresses keep these digital coins on their balances at the moment. This suggests that about 888 thousand new BTC holders have joined the network since the beginning of this year. According to experts from Finbold, the number of holders holding less than 1 BTC on their balance sheet has increased significantly since October 2020. At the same time, whales (from 1000 to 10,000 BTC) have not increased their holdings much. According to the analysts, this suggests that bitcoin is unlikely to show serious growth in the medium term. Representatives of the CoinMarketCap service do not agree with them. The portal's SMM service has conducted a survey among subscribers, as a result of which 4 out of 5 users expressed confidence that the price of BTC will rise to almost $50,000 by the end of March. - Citizenship of Saint Kitts and Nevis can now be purchased with cryptocurrency. It is a small island nation in the Caribbean. The country is part of the British Commonwealth, and Queen Elizabeth II of Great Britain is recognized as its head. The program for obtaining citizenship in exchange for investments has been operating in the country for a long time, since the 1980s. The current amount of investment, which allows you to get the coveted passport, is $150,000. But if earlier the country accepted only the traditional currency, now the list has expanded: investors can transfer about 4 BTC at the exchange rate to Saint Kitts and Nevis. By the way, some well-known supporters of digital assets already have the citizenship of this country. One of the most recognizable is Roger Ver, the developer of Bitcoin Cash (BCH). - Cryptocurrencies have proven to be an effective weapon against Russia, ConsenSys founder and ethereum co-creator Joseph Lubi said in an interview with Decrypt. The international crypto community has donated more than $100 million to Ukrainian charitable foundations since the beginning of the Russian military invasion of Ukraine. According to Joseph Lubi, the war in Ukraine predetermined the further integration of digital assets into the global economy: “This is another moment for our industry that will allow for mass adoption [of cryptocurrencies]. This will be a matter of national security now,” he said. “Our country and many others will have to learn how to use this powerful tool, this weapon. Nobody likes guns, but you need to be able to handle them like your neighbors do." - Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak believes bitcoin will be worth $100,000. According to him, BTC is “the most incredible mathematical miracle” that surpasses gold due to the confirmed digital scarcity. Other influencers in the crypto world believe that the coin can reach this milestone as well. Bitbull CEO Joe DiPasquale is one of the biggest proponents of cryptocurrency. Even though bitcoin has been falling since November, he believes that the digital asset is still on track to reach the long-awaited $100,000 mark. - Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz named five times the figure during his speech at Bloomberg TV. He once again confirmed his forecast, according to which the largest cryptocurrency could rise to $500,000 in five years. And it will be a smooth, not aggressive growth. The billionaire had accurately predicted that the cryptocurrency market would stall at the beginning of 2022. Bitcoin’s upward rally in 2021 was fueled by fears that the Federal Reserve would “print money forever,” he said. Now that the Fed is winding down its stimulus program, the largest cryptocurrency is in the middle of a bearish trend. Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for March 21 - 25, 2022 EUR/USD: Has the Market Gone Crazy? What happened in the market after the US Federal Reserve meeting can be called "the theater of the absurd". As expected, the regulator raised the key interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5% on Wednesday, March 16, for the first time since 2018. As expected, the dollar began to strengthen after that. But what no one expected was that the strengthening will last only about an hour and will amount to some 50 points. After that, it will be not the American, but the European currency that will begin to grow. As a result, the EUR/USD pair will fix a weekly high at 1.1137 the next day. Everything that happened was completely contrary to logic. The forecasts for US GDP were revised. And they showed that the Fed expects economic growth to slow down in 2022 from 4% to 2.8% due to the sanctions war with Russia. In addition, the forecasts for the interest rate have also changed. It was earlier said that it will reach 0.75-1.00% by the end of the year. This figure has now risen to 1.75-2.00%. Given that there are only six meetings left this year, it turns out that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) will have to raise the rate by 0.25% at each of them. But this is not all either. The forecast for the end of 2023 was also raised from 1.50-1.75% to 2.75-3.00%. Moreover, it seems that we will face several more acts of monetary restriction in 2024. That is, this is not just a revision of forecasts, but a sharp tightening of the US monetary policy, which could deal a serious blow to the labor market and lead to a large-scale recession. In such a situation, the dollar would have to grow steadily, and the S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq stock indices would fall drastically. But everything went the opposite way: the DXY Dollar Index fell drastically, and stock indices quickly flew up. As already mentioned, there is no logical explanation for this. Some believe that the reason for this is the rate increase not by 0.5%, but only by 0.25%. According to another version, the reason is that the regulator has not clarified plans to reduce the Fed's balance sheet. And someone thinks that it is the greed factor that worked. Speculators remembered how quickly stock indices recovered after the shock at the beginning of the pandemic and decided that something similar would happen again soon. So now is the time to buy US stocks while they are still relatively cheap after a 10-week drop. Logic began to return to the markets at the very end of the working week. The dollar began to rise again, and the EUR/USD turned south, finishing at 1.1050. As for its future, experts' opinions are divided as follows: 45% have supported the growth of the pair, 35% support the fall, and 20% have taken a neutral position. Among the oscillators on D1, the picture is mixed: 30% of them are colored red, 30% are green and the remaining 40% are neutral gray. The trend indicators have an advantage on the side of the red ones: those are 65% against 35% of the green ones. The nearest target for the bears will be to break through support at 1.1000, then 1.0900. If successful, we can expect a retest of the March 07 low at 1.0805. This will be followed by the 2020 low of 1.0635 and the 2016 low of 1.0325. The strategic goal is parity at the level of 1.0000. The bulls' immediate goal is to break through the resistance zone in the 1.1100-1.1135 area. Then there are zones 1.1280-1.1390 and the highs of January 13 and February 10 at 1.1485. As for the upcoming week, there are few important macro data expected. Thursday, March 24, can be singled out in the economic calendar, when data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone will arrive. The volume of orders for capital goods and durable goods in the US will be known on this day as well. GBP/USD: Bank of England Is One Step Ahead of the Fed Strange market reaction to the Fed meeting helped the pound as well. Positive statistics on the national labor market also sided with the British currency. The unemployment rate, with the forecast of 4.0%, actually fell from 4.1% to 3.9% in January, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits in February decreased by 48.1K (31.9K in the previous month). The average wage increased from 3.7% to 3.8%. Taking into account bonus payments, its growth amounted to 4.8%, which is also better than the forecast of 4.6%. All this allowed the Bank of England to once again be one step ahead of the US Federal Reserve and to raise the interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75% at its meeting on Thursday, March 17. It is highly likely that the regulator of the United Kingdom will continue to tighten monetary policy and raise the refinancing rate again at its next meeting, in a month and a half. The new inflation forecast will also push it to this. Unlike its US and European counterparts, the Bank of England expects it to reach 7.25% in April. It will take at least two years to bring it down to the target level of 2.0% in such a situation. The results of the meeting of the Bank of England initially caused the same paradoxical reaction of investors as in the case of the US Federal Reserve. The GBP/USD pair, instead of growing, fell from 1.3210 to 1.3087 on expectations of an active rate hike. However, then, as in the case of the euro, the market changed its mind, and the pair completed the five-day period at 1.3175. Experts' forecast for the GBP/USD pair for the next week is as follows: 50% vote for the movement to the north, 40% are for further movement to the south, the remaining 10% vote for the sideways trend. Among the oscillators on D1, 70% are looking down, 30% have taken a neutral position at the time of writing the review. For trend indicators, 65% side with the bears, 35% side with the bulls. The nearest support is located in the zone 1.3080-1.3100, then comes the low of the past week (and at the same time of 2021-2022) - 1.3000, followed by the 2020 support. Resistance levels are 1.3185-1.3210, then 1.3270-1.3325, 1.3400, 1.3485, 1.3600, 1.3640. As for the events of the upcoming week, one can pay attention to the data from the UK consumer market, which will arrive on Wednesday March 23. The country's services PMI (Markit) will be released on the next day, Thursday, March 24, which is expected to rise from 60.5 to 60.7 over the month. USD/JPY: Yen Falls to Six-Year Low The headline of the previous USD/JPY review stated that “the markets chose the dollar”. The past week has only confirmed this conclusion. Despite the fact that the US currency fell against the euro and the pound, it continued to grow steadily against the yen. The high of the week was fixed at 119.40, while the finish was slightly lower, at the level of 119.15. The last time the USD/JPY pair traded so high was a very, very long time ago, at the turn of 2016/2017. The reason for this is the Bank of Japan, which does not want to change its ultra-soft monetary policy. The position of the Japanese regulator differs sharply from the position of the Fed, the Bank of England, and even the ECB. Although, admittedly, there are certain reasons for this. Inflation in the country amounted to only 0.9% in February in annual terms against 0.5% in January. This indicator, although it was the highest since April 2019, is simply insignificant compared to the inflation rate in the UK or in the US, where it reached 7.9%, the highest in the last 39 years. And although, following the results of the last meeting on Friday, March 18, the Central Bank of Japan announced that it expected inflationary pressure to increase due to rising energy and commodity prices, it still kept the interest rate at a negative level, minus 0.1%, and the target yield of ten-year government bonds are close to zero. As for the forecast, 70% of analysts believe that it is time for the pair to turn down, 20% hold the opposite view, and 10% have just shrugged. Among the indicators on D1, there is almost complete unanimity after such a powerful breakthrough to the north. 100% of trend indicators and oscillators are looking up, although 35% of the oscillators are already in the overbought zone. The pair easily broke through all the resistance levels indicated a week ago, and one can most likely focus on the next round values with a backlash of plus/minus 15-20 points now. The nearest zone is 119.80-120.20. Supports are located at the levels and in the zones 119.00, 118.00-118.35, 117.70, 116.75, 115.80-116.15. Of the week's macro statistics, inflation data in Tokyo, which will be released on Friday, March 25, is of interest. According to forecasts, the core consumer price index in the country's capital may fall from 0.5% to 0.4%. A report on the latest meeting of the Japanese regulator's Monetary Policy Committee will be published a day earlier. However, all its main decisions are already known, so one should hardly expect any surprises from this document. CRYPTOCURRENCIES: The Salvation of Bitcoin Is in Small Holders So, Jerome Powell's speech at the end of the Fed meeting has returned investor interest to the stock market, becoming the driver of the best two-day increase in the S&P500 index since April 2020. Both Dow Jones and Nasdaq went up. This is not to say that the increase in such risk appetites has helped cryptocurrencies a lot, but at least it has kept them from falling further. The BTC/USD bulls tried to gain a foothold above $40,000 once again, while their ETH/USD counterparts tried to push the pair closer to $3,000. Bitcoin is trading in the $41,650 zone at the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday March 18. The total market capitalization increased from $1.740 trillion to $1.880 trillion over the week. And the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained in the Extreme Fear zone, having hardly risen from 22 to 25 points. Probably, the growth of US stock indices can be considered good news for the digital market as well. Another piece of good news came from the other side of the Atlantic, from Europe. The Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament (ECON) has adopted a bill to regulate cryptocurrencies. “It is a good day for the crypto sector! The EU Parliament has paved the way for innovative regulation of cryptocurrencies that can set standards for the whole world,” said one of the drafters of the law. It is also positive that the document has not included an amendment to ban mining on the Proof-of-Work consensus algorithm, which would de facto mean a ban on bitcoin. The European Parliament's decision came just days after US President Joe Biden signed an executive order on the same subject. Recall that this document instructs federal agencies to study the impact of cryptocurrencies on national security and the economy by the end of the year, as well as outline the necessary changes in legislation. In particular, it is supposed to coordinate the work of the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), as well as the definition of roles for government agencies - from the State Department to the Department of Commerce. According to some analysts, the events in Ukraine prompted both the White House and the EU Parliament to take these steps. More precisely, the fear that some organizations and individuals may use digital assets to circumvent sanctions against Russia. And there is no doubt that such attempts are being made. So, it became known last week that some large investors from Russia had been keeping their cryptocurrency reserves on Swiss exchanges, counting on the neutrality of this country. However, Switzerland announced unexpectedly that it was joining the European sanctions. And now the Russian oligarchs are trying to save their assets. For example, Reuters reports that a cryptocurrency company (the name is not published) received orders from Swiss brokers to sell 125,000 bitcoins, which are worth about $5 billion, and to convert them into cash. Analytical company Elliptic said that it transfered to the US authorities information about digital wallets allegedly associated with sanctioned Russian officials and oligarchs, Bloomberg reports. To support the sanctions regime against Russia, Elliptic employees have identified more than 400 virtual asset service providers (mostly exchanges) where cryptocurrencies can be purchased for rubles (according to analysts, turnover on these platforms tripled in a week). In addition, the company's specialists have identified several hundred thousand crypto wallets associated with sanctioned individuals and legal entities. According to some experts, it is possible that bitcoin will return to a bearish trend, against the backdrop of a tense geopolitical situation and the upcoming tightening of the Fed's monetary policy. AcheronInsights editor Christopher Yates expects BTC/USD to drop to $30,000. Well-known analyst Willy Woo shares similar fears. His calculations indicate that there is no necessary dip in the relative cost measurement. This, in his opinion, suggests that "there is room for another fall." In addition to the growth of investors' risk appetite, bitcoin keeps the activity of small buyers with wallets up to 10 BTC from a collapse: they increase their purchases in the hope of a local bottom being formed. So, CoinMarketCap's SMM service has conducted a survey among subscribers, as a result of which 4 out of 5 users expressed confidence that the price of BTC will rise to almost $50,000 by the end of March. According to analysts from IntoTheBlock, the number of holders of the flagship cryptocurrency has now reached a record high: 39.79 million unique addresses. About 888 thousand new BTC holders have joined the network since the beginning of this year. At the same time, according to Finbold, a serious growth is observed among small holders holding less than 1 BTC on their balance. As for the whales (from 1000 to 10,000 BTC), they have not increased their holdings much. According to the analysts, this suggests that bitcoin is unlikely to show serious growth in the medium term. Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak is more optimistic about the prospects of the flagship cryptocurrency; he believes that bitcoin will still rise to $100,000. According to him, BTC is “the most incredible mathematical miracle” that surpasses gold due to the confirmed digital scarcity. Other influencers in the crypto world believe that the coin can reach this milestone as well. Bitbull CEO Joe DiPasquale is one of the biggest proponents of cryptocurrency. Even though bitcoin has been falling since November, he believes that the digital asset is still on track to reach the long-awaited $100,000 mark. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz named five times the figure during his speech at Bloomberg TV. He once again confirmed his forecast, according to which the largest cryptocurrency could rise to $500,000 in five years. And it will be a smooth, not aggressive growth. The billionaire had accurately predicted that the cryptocurrency market would stall at the beginning of 2022. According to him, bitcoin’s upward rally in 2021 was fueled by fears that the Federal Reserve would “print money forever. Now that the Fed is winding down its stimulus program, the largest cryptocurrency is in the middle of a bearish trend. The CEO of the crypto-bank Abra Bill Barhydt draws no less brilliant prospects for the ethereum. He believes that a steady decrease in fees within the ethereum network can serve as a driver for the growth of the asset to the $30,000-40,000 zone. Today, the ethereum network is one of the most sought after in the industry, as it is used in the field of non-fungible tokens (NFT), DeFi decentralized finance, games, etc. The number of ethereum holders will only grow with the launch of Ethereum 2.0 and the launch of staking approaching. However, Bill Barhydt has not ruled out the possibility of selling small amounts of ETH in June or July. According to him, this will be a completely predictable correction against the backdrop of the growth of cryptocurrency. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 28 - April 01, 2022 EUR/USD: A Tangle of Chaos and Paradoxes The title of the previous EUR/USD review had a question of whether the market has gone crazy. Many analysts agreed that financial markets behaved at least illogically following the March Fed meeting. And at most, it's just absurd. Despite aggressive tightening of monetary policy by the US regulator, despite a possible slowdown in economic growth in the US due to the actions of the Fed and anti-Russian sanctions, despite the worsening epidemiological situation in China, stock indices are going up. This is especially noticeable in the S&P500, which has added almost 10% since March 15, and it has more than doubled in the two years since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic (more precisely, it has gone up by 108%). It is difficult to explain what is happening. The classic explanation that sounds most logical is that markets rise on expectations. Investors remembered how quickly stock indices recovered after the shock at the beginning of the pandemic and decided that something similar would happen again soon. That is, now is the time to buy shares before their price has flown to new heights. As for EUR/USD, this pair behaved illogically as well. Markets were waiting for the difference in the monetary policies of the Fed and the ECB to push it sharply down. However, instead, the pair consolidated in the 1.1000 area, which fully confirmed the neutral forecast of experts and indicators given a week ago. Apparently, investors believe that a sharp increase in interest rates by the Fed, although it will stop inflation, could create serious problems for the US industry. But Europe may expect good economic growth in Q3 and Q4. US President Joe Biden said before his visit to the EU last week that he wanted to achieve new sanctions against Russia, including a complete embargo on Russian energy supplies. However, this did not happen, which supported the common European currency. The end of the armed conflict in Ukraine, or at least its transition from a hot phase to a frozen state, can further strengthen the euro. The situation on the debt market, which is much better in Germany, the locomotive of the European economy, than in the United States, also keeps the EUR/USD pair from falling. At the same time, macro statistics look quite contradictory, introducing additional confusion into the assessment of the current situation. Thus, business activity in the eurozone slowed down from 55.5 to 54.5 this month. But it is still better than the forecast of 53.7 points. And in the US, the composite index of business activity jumped from 55.9 to 58.5 against the forecast of 55.4 points. And this is another paradox: how can this happen when anti-Russian sanctions are putting pressure on the economy on both sides of the Atlantic, and fuel prices are skyrocketing? Even more confusion and chaos was added by President Putin's decision to sell energy resources for rubles. True, this only applies to countries that are unfriendly to him, but this list includes the United States and all EU countries, as well as Great Britain, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Switzerland. The UN Conference on Trade and Development has already lowered its forecast for US GDP for 2022 from 3.0% to 2.4%. There was also an adjustment for the GDP of the Eurozone, and it turned out to be more significant: the figure was halved, to 1.7%. This seems to be due to the EU's geographic proximity to war-torn Ukraine, as well as Europe's much greater dependence on Russian oil and gas. And now nobody knows how to buy them for rubles. There has never been anything like it in world practice. Therefore, most likely, purchases will take place through intermediary countries, for example, from North Africa or the Middle East, which will lead to another increase in prices. The EUR/USD pair relied on support at 1.0960-1.0965 throughout the past week and ended the trading session at 1.0982. Most analysts (60%) believe that the pair will try to break through the support in the 1.0900 zone and retest the March 07 low at 1.0805. Then, with luck, the 2020 low of 1.0635 and the 2016 low of 1.0325 will follow. The strategic goal is parity at the level of 1.0000. The remaining 40% of experts have opposed such a scenario and vote for a bullish forecast. The nearest target for them is a breakdown of the resistance zone around 1.1050. Then there are zones 1.1100-1.1135, 1.1280-1.1350 and the highs of January 13 and February 10 in the area of 1.1485. At the same time, if we switch from the weekly to the median forecast for the whole of April, then the Pivot Point of the month is in the region of 1.1000, as it is now. Among the oscillators on D1, the picture is mixed: 35% of them are colored red, 30% are green and the remaining 35% are gray neutral. Trend indicators have 100% on the red side. The coming week will bring many important economic statistics. The value of the harmonized consumer price index in Germany will become known on Wednesday, March 30, and the volume of retail sales in this country on the next day. Statistics on consumer prices in general for the Eurozone will be published on Friday, April 01. In addition to European statistics, data on employment in the private sector and US GDP will be released on Wednesday, March 30, and in addition to data on business activity (ISM), we are traditionally waiting for a portion of statistics from the US labor market on Friday, including the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP). GBP/USD: Narrow Channel Amid Uncertainty As with the euro, GBP/USD bulls and bears are at a complete loss. The reasons are the same: a strange increase in the global risk appetite of investors and the unpredictable situation with energy resources. As a result, the pair has been moving east all week, trapped in a narrow corridor 1.3120-1.3220. The attempt of the bulls to break through in the middle of the five-day period above the horizon of 1.3300 ended in a fiasco, and the pair finished in the center of the named corridor, at the level of 1.3180. Experts' forecast for the GBP/USD pair for the coming week is as follows: 50% vote for moving north, 25% vote for moving south, the remaining 25% vote for a sideways trend. Among the oscillators on D1 at the time of writing, 70% are looking up, 30% are looking down. For trend indicators, the opposite is true: 80% side with the bears, 20% - with the bulls. The nearest support is located in the area of 1.3150, then there is a zone of 1.3080-1.3100 and the March 15 (and at the same time 2021-2022) low of 1.3000, followed by the support of 2020. Resistance levels are 1.329-1.3215, then 1.3270-1.3325, 1.3400, 1.3485, 1.3600, 1.3640. From the events related to the economy of the United Kingdom, we can highlight the speech of the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey on Monday, March 28, as well as the publication of UK GDP data for the Q4 2022 on Thursday March 31. USD/JPY: New Anti-Record of the Japanese Currency The yen fell to a six-year low last week, reaching 119.15 JPY per 1 USD. The record was updated this week: the pair was marked at the level of 122.43 on Friday, March 25. The Bank of Japan, which does not want to change its ultra-soft monetary policy, is to blame for such a sharp weakening of the yen. The position of the Japanese regulator contrasts sharply with the plans and actions of the Fed, the Bank of England and even the ECB. It still believes that a premature withdrawal of stimulus policies could do more harm than good. Admittedly, there are certain reasons for this. Inflation in the country amounted to only 0.9% in February in annual terms against 0.5% in January. This indicator, although it was the highest since April 2019, is simply insignificant compared to the inflation rate in the UK or in the US, where it reached 7.9%, the highest in the last 39 years. This dovish position was once again confirmed during the speech of the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda on March 22, who said that it was too early to discuss the possibility of curtailing the quantitative easing (QE) program, as well as raising the interest rate. Recall that it has been at a negative level for a long time - minus 0.1%. Three other factors also pushed the yen down and USD/JPY up. The first one is the departure of investors from quiet currency havens to risky assets. The second factor is the Fed Chairman's rhetoric that has become even more hawkish. Speaking on March 21 at the US National Association of Economics and Business, Jerome Powell said that the US Central bank is ready to act even more aggressively if necessary. These words led the markets to think that the Fed could raise interest rates 10-11 times by the end of 2023. Based on such expectations, the yield on 10-year US government bonds rose from 2.146% to 2.282%, reaching a maximum since May 2019. And as we know, the exchange rate of the Japanese currency traditionally correlates with these securities. If the yield on ten-year Treasury bills grows, so does the USD/JPY pair. Which is what we saw last week. And finally, the third factor is the decision of the Russian leadership to introduce payments for gas in rubles. “We do not quite understand what Russia's intentions are and how it will do it,” Finance Minister Shun'ichi Suzuki said at a meeting of the Japanese Parliament on March 23. Most analysts have been waiting for the end of the bullish rally for the past two weeks, but it still has not happened. On the contrary, the pair USD/JPY has added about 700 points. And now this "majority" of 70-80% has "shrunken" to 50%. Moving from a weekly to a monthly forecast, the number of those voting for the pair's reversal to the south and its fall at least to 117.00-118.00 is still large and amounts to 85%. Among the indicators on D1, there is complete unanimity after such a powerful breakthrough to the north. 100% of trend indicators and oscillators are looking up, although 35% of the oscillators are already in the overbought zone. The previous bullish forecast called the 119.80-120.20 zone as the target, which is now far below. It is difficult to point to any new targets in the current situation. Most likely, it is worth focusing on subsequent round levels with a backlash of plus/minus 15-20 points. This approach was confirmed last week, when the pair finished at 122.08. The range of support zones has also become wider due to very strong volatility. These are the zones 120.60-121.40, 119.00-119.40, 118.00-118.35. The economic calendar of the week can mark Friday, April 1, when the Bank of Japan publishes the Tankan Large Producers Index. This is quite an important indicator that reflects the general business conditions for export-oriented large industrial companies in the country. CRYPTOCURRENCIES: In Anticipation of a Bull Rally Investors' risk appetites, which caused the growth of stock indices, have dragged the crypto market along with them. Bitcoin reached the powerful resistance level of $45,000 on the evening of Friday, March 25, for the fifth time since the beginning of the year. it is still an open question whether it will be able to gain a foothold above this level. The previous four attempts failed; the BTC/USD pair rolled back down. However, the rising wedge is clearly visible on its chart, in which each next drawdown becomes smaller and smaller. So the main cryptocurrency fell to $32.945 on January 24, to $34.415 a month later, and it hit the bottom at $37.170 on March 7. The total market capitalization rose to $2.280 trillion at the peak on March 25, but it also failed to gain a foothold above this significant mark, and at the time of writing the review it is trading at $1.995 trillion ($1.880 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index finally moved out of the Extreme Fear zone to the middle of the scale, rising from 25 to 47 points. Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine in an interview with Time. At the same time, in his opinion, this event reminded the crypto community that the purpose of digital assets is to bring real benefits to people, and cryptocurrencies can become a counterbalance to authoritarian governments and undermine the “suffocating control” of technology giants. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the BitMEX cryptocurrency exchange, agrees with Buterin, he believes that due to anti-Russian sanctions, bitcoin will gain an advantage over the US dollar, and possibly gold. In his opinion, sanctions against Russia and other countries only encourage their citizens to invest in gold and bitcoin, and not to keep money in dollars. Hayes explained that in a difficult economic situation, citizens have more confidence in assets with a limited supply or offer, considering them a more reliable way to save money. The BitMEX co-founder believes that Russia's disconnection from the SWIFT international payment system, that is, the isolation of one of the energy leaders, may have long-term negative consequences for the global financial system. Gold will become the dominant asset for some time, as it will be used for international trade in energy and food products. After some time, Central banks will begin to save this precious metal, it will become increasingly difficult for them to make such payments. And this will contribute to the widespread introduction of digital currencies. Cryptocurrencies need a clear regulation to become really popular. This is the opinion of Matt Hougan, investment director at Bitwise Asset Management. He believes that the current stage in the history of the digital industry is paving the way for growth that will occur this year and will continue next year. One of the important regulatory steps, according to the top manager of Bitwise, is the recent decree of US President Joe Biden, which could lead to an increase in the price of bitcoin. Recall that this document instructs federal agencies to study the impact of cryptocurrencies on national security and the economy by the end of the year, as well as outline the necessary changes in legislation. In particular, it is supposed to coordinate the work of the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), as well as the definition of roles for government agencies - from the State Department to the Department of Commerce. Bank of America crypto strategist Alkesh Shah also believes regulation of the crypto market will increase confidence and capitalization to a record high. “Ultimately we need some governance and some level of trust, but regulators want to ban when something goes wrong,” the expert explained. Therefore, in his opinion, a semi-decentralized system is optimal: blockchains, which are secretly managed by centralized organizations. “I think that $30 trillion for the semi-decentralized part of the cryptocurrency ecosystem is quite real capital,” Shah concluded. If we talk about the foreseeable future, the analytical company Glassnode expects a repeat of the bitcoin high of $69,000. The coin has been trading below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) For the past 9 weeks but continues to rise. A similar situation was observed during the accumulation period of 2021, which paved the way for a rally in the fourth quarter, when an all-time high was reached. Glassnode data also shows that long-term holders are still hoarding bitcoin and the number of bitcoins on exchanges is declining. The company's specialists interpret this data as the end of the downward correction period. According to some experts, ethereum is now even slightly better off than bitcoin, as many investors are now buying ETH for BTC. In addition, the community is waiting for the long-awaited update to the ethereum mainnet. The Merge update is approaching rollout following successful testing on the testnet. Before its launch, more than $5.0 billion in ETH tokens had already been withdrawn from circulation as a result of burning. As burning reduces the total supply of ethereum, this can positively affect its price, contributing to the rally of the altcoin. Analysts at FXStreet suggest that its price could rise by 20% in the current uptrend. But for this to happen, the ETH/USD pair needs to gain a firm foothold above $3,033, which could lead to a perfect bullish breakout for the first time since October 2021. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 CryptoNews of the Week - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoke about the importance of digital assets in an interview with CNBC. “Cryptocurrency has grown by leaps and bounds, and now it plays a significant role not only in transactions, but in the investment decisions of many Americans,” she said. At the same time, Ms. Minister confirmed her concerns regarding digital assets due to threats to financial stability, the need to protect private investors and the use of cryptocurrencies in illegal activities. “On the other hand, cryptocurrencies have advantages, and we recognize the benefits of innovation in the payment system. We want to issue recommendations to create a regulatory field in the long run,” she concluded, referring to the March executive order of US President Joe Biden. Recall that this decree requires federal agencies to coordinate their efforts in regulating the cryptocurrency industry. - Kevin O’Leary, an American entrepreneur and star of the popular business and finance show “Shark Tank” stated that “there is no chance that bitcoin or anything else that has economic prospects in terms of developing new technologies for financial services will be banned and payment systems. Roy Niederhoffer, the founder of RGNiederhoffer Capital Management, disagreed with his opinion, and he sees the possibility of a ban. He recalled that there was a time when private ownership of gold was banned in many countries, including the United States. In the end, both panellists agreed that regulation of the cryptocurrency space is inevitable, and it will lead to a massive rally. “As soon as we see regulation, organizations will start investing trillions of dollars in cryptocurrencies,” O’Leary is sure. - Peter Brandt, a legendary trader and the Factor Trading CEO, tweeted to his 629,400 followers that BTC’s recent move reminded him of April 2019, when the top cryptocurrency bottomed at $3,500 and began the first phase of its bull cycle. However, the expert emphasizes that even a technical breakthrough does not guarantee that the coin will repeat the 2019 rally. “Charts DO NOT predict the future. The charts DO NOT even offer probabilities. Charts offer opportunities and are useful for risk management in a trading program. Chart patterns can either work, fail, or transform. If laser eyes reappear and BTC stops, be careful,” Brandt warns. Crypto analyst Dave the Wave posted a comment saying that bitcoin is forming a larger ascending triangle on the weekly timeframe and could rise to its all-time high of $69,000. Note that this forecast met with no objections from Brandt. - DataDash CEO Nicholas Merten believes that short-term investors and traders with leverage influence bitcoin volatility, and “whales” influence the growth. He clarified that “whales” and other institutional investors accumulating cryptocurrency, despite macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, are the catalyst for the rise in the price of BTC. “There has been a lot of panic around the macro environment over the past couple of months. The Fed raises interest rates... The war between Ukraine and Russia, the potential next wave of COVID-19: all these issues have caused investors to be pessimistic and make them think that investors and companies are going to sell bitcoins. At the same time, the “whales”, on the contrary, did not sell cryptocurrency in large volumes. In fact, we saw how long-term investors continued to either buy more or hold bitcoin,” Merten shared his observation. As for volatility, “all the up and down price movements that we see in the market are most likely due to the liquidation of the positions of short-term traders and leveraged traders,” said the CEO of DataDash. In his opinion, despite a 50% drop in quotes from a record high of $69,000 in November, bitcoin has remained in a bull market all along. - The conflict, during which American actor Will Smith hit comedian Chris Rock during the live broadcast of the Oscars, opened up a good opportunity for entrepreneurial members of the crypto community to make money. Almost immediately after the end of the Oscars, there were reports on the network about the launch of a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) named after this slap in the face: Will Smith Slap DAO. The project has its own website and pages in social networks. The organizers of Will Smith Slap DAO also launched the sale of non-fungible tokens (NFT) based on the slap, which have already been bought by over 500 people. - Despite numerous macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges, bitcoin is highly likely to move into the second half of the bear market. This opinion is shared by Glassnode analysts. The price of the first cryptocurrency broke through the upper limit of the three-month range at $47,000 last week. Active accumulation of coins in the $35,000-$42,000 range and the lack of significant spending of bitcoins purchased in the first quarter of 2021 increased the selling pressure. The share of BTC “aged” over a year has grown by 9.4% over the past eight months to close to a record 62.9%. The holders of these coins did not get rid of the asset in the face of two corrections of more than 50% over the past year. The growth rate of this indicator is comparable to the market recovery in 2018-2019. And this may reflect increased investor confidence in bitcoin. At the same time, analysts at Glassnode warned that the process of bottoming and investor capitulation in a bear market is often lengthy and painful. They urged not to rush into stating the end of the bear market. - Citizens School in Dubai (UAE), which is scheduled to open in September, will offer parents of students the opportunity to pay for their studies in bitcoins and ethereum. Payments will be accepted through a processing service that converts crypto assets into the local currency dirham. “By introducing a new payment method, we expect the younger generation to play a stronger role in the development of the digital economy in the UAE. While many people are already enjoying the fruits of the new era, today's children will become the entrepreneurs and investors of the future,” says Citizens School management. - Well-known software developer MicroStrategy received a $205 million loan secured by its own crypto assets. The loan was issued by the American bank Silvergate. The purpose of the loan is to buy bitcoins. According to the Bitcoin Treasuries website, MicroStrategy already owns 125,051 BTC worth nearly $6 billion. “This loan provides an opportunity to strengthen our position as a leader among public companies investing in bitcoin,” said Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy. Note that MicroStrategy is not the only company that provides crypto assets as collateral. For this type of loans, Silvergate Bank has a special SEN Leverage program, the total amount of obligations for which has already exceeded $570 million. - Glassnode analysts have found that the volume of ethereum on exchanges has been declining in recent days. The inflow of this altcoin to the trading floors is 20% lower than its outflow, which creates conditions for the formation of an ETH deficit. The growth in the value of the coin is observed against the backdrop of the activation of the ten largest ETH addresses. This is confirmed by a new report from the analytical company Santiment. It states that whales have accumulated up to 23.7% of the total ethereum supply. They are not going to dump their reserves and prefer to send ETH to offline storage. A similar trend was observed in the first half of 2017. As a result, we saw the famous altcoin run during the hype five years ago. - The next time someone tries to downplay Bitcoin (BTC) mining’s environmental achievements, feel free to cite the AmityAge mining farm as an example. Founded in Slovakia by Gabriel Kozak and Dušan Matuska, the company generates electricity for mining by using human and animal waste., One of its leaders, Dušan Matushka, said that "their devices run on methane, which is produced during the biodegradation process." Since there is no shortage of human and animal waste in the foreseeable future, we can say that BTC mining here is carried out in an environmentally friendly manner and using renewable energy sources. Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted April 3, 2022 Share Posted April 3, 2022 Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 04 - 08, 2022 EUR/USD: Too Much Uncertainty The movement of major currencies was determined throughout March by reports from the Russian-Ukrainian front, the sanctions-energy war with Russia, and the pace of monetary tightening. The US dollar has strengthened significantly in recent months thanks to a sharp increase in the yield of US government bonds and signals about an increase in the Fed's interest rate. The EUR/USD pair fell to 1.0805 on March 07, its lowest level since mid-May 2020. However, then the growth of the dollar stopped, and the pair moved to a sideways movement along the Pivot Point 1.1000. The hawkish statements of the Fed management pushed the pair down, the hopes for resolving the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine sent it above this line. The same factors determined the dynamics of EUR/USD last week as well. The pair rose by 240 points from Monday, March 28 to Thursday, March 31: from 1.0944 to 1.1184. First, the strengthening of the euro was caused by reports in the US media that the ECB may start actively raising the refinancing rate this year. Allegedly, a number of large market participants require the European regulator to raise the rate four times by the end of 2022. As a result, investors began to include in quotes the probability of such a move by the ECB, and the yield on government bonds in Europe went up. The next day, March 29, hopes dawned for the success of the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, which took place in Istanbul (Turkey). The success of the EU's energy war with Russia also helped the European currency. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on the sale of energy carriers to Europe exclusively for rubles a week ago. The goal was clear: to support the ruble exchange rate under the sanctions. However, the main European consumers refused to do so categorically, and the head of Russia was forced to note his decision. Everything would have been good for the euro, but it turned out in the second half of the week that the rumors about the increase in the EUR rate in 2022 are nothing more than a speculation, and that there was no serious shift in the negotiations in Istanbul. Macroeconomic statistics also helped the dollar a little. As a result, the growth of the EUR/USD pair stopped, it turned south and ended the five-day period not far from Pivot Point 1.1000, at the level of 1.1045. The outcome of the hostilities in Ukraine is still unclear. The situation with the supply and payment of hydrocarbon raw materials to Europe remains confusing as well. Oil has fallen in price by about 14% since March 24. This is how the market reacted to the plans of President Joe Biden to sell additional volumes of oil from national reserves. The White House intends to sell up to 1 million barrels of oil per day over the next six months. And this could be the biggest sell-off in the nearly 50-year history of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It should be noted here that, despite the smaller volumes, the sale of oil brings Russia more profit than gas currently. And such a decision by the United States should reduce Europe's dependence on Russian energy carriers, causing additional damage to the Russian economy. Another uncertainty is introduced by the Fed. Recall that forecasts for US GDP have been recently revised. And they have shown that the regulator expects economic growth to slow down in 2022 from 4% to 2.8% due to the sanctions war with Russia. In addition, the forecasts for the interest rate have also changed. It was earlier said that it will reach 0.75-1.00% by the end of the year. This figure has now risen to 1.75-2.00%. Given that there are only six meetings left this year, it turns out that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) will have to raise the rate by 0.25% at each of them. But this is not all either. The forecast on the rate for the end of 2023 has also been raised from 1.50-1.75% to 2.75-3.00%. Moreover, it seems that we will face several more acts of monetary restriction in 2024. That is, this is not just a revision of forecasts, but a sharp tightening of the US monetary policy, which could deal a serious blow to the labor market and lead to a large-scale recession. The market may receive important signals about the future movement of the dollar on Wednesday, April 6. The minutes of the March FOMC meeting will be published on this day. At the moment, 50% of analysts vote for the strengthening of the dollar. 40% vote for the growth of the EUR/USD pair and 10% have taken a neutral position. Among the oscillators on D1, the picture is mixed: 30% of them are colored red, 20% are green and the remaining 35% are gray neutral. The trend indicators have an advantage on the side of the red ones: those are 85% against 15% of the green ones. The nearest target for the bulls is a breakdown of the resistance zone in the area of 1.1100-1.1135, followed by the zones of 1.1185-1.1200, 1.1280-1.1350 and highs on January 13 and February 10 in the area of 1.1485. As for the bears, they will certainly try to break through the support of 1.0950-1.1000 and drop 100 points lower. If successful, the next targets will be the March 07 low at 1.0805 and the 2020 low at 1.0635 and the 2016 low at 1.0325. Apart from the publication of the minutes of the March FOMC meeting, there will be relatively few events in the coming week. We can highlight the publication of the ISM PMI in the US services sector on Tuesday, April 05, as well as data on retail sales in the Eurozone on Thursday, April 07. GBP/USD: Trend east, along 1.3100 Statistics from the United Kingdom last week turned out to be rather contradictory. According to the data published on Thursday, March 31, the British economy for the Q4 21 grew by 1.3%, which was higher than both the previous 1.0% and the forecast of 1.0%. The economy grew by 7.5% over the past year, which was the highest since 1941. But it is necessary to take into account here that GDP fell by 9.4% in 2020. So, there has not yet been a final recovery to the pre-pandemic level. In addition, data on the country's current account for the Q4 21 amounted to 7.3 billion pounds against the forecast of 17.6 billion and the previous value of 28.9 billion. The activity of the manufacturing sector in the UK was also less than expected, which was confirmed by a IHS Markit report on Friday, April 01. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 55.2 in March against the forecast of 55.5. As with the euro and for the same reasons, GBP/USD investors and traders are at a loss. As a result, the pair was moving east along the 1.3100 level in a narrow corridor throughout the week. The low of the week was fixed at 1.3050, the high was 1.3182, the last chord sounded at 1.3112. Giving a forecast for the coming week, 55% of experts side with the bulls, 35% support the bears and 10% remain neutral. The median forecast still points to the 1.3100 horizon. True, when moving to the forecast for the whole of April, its value rises to the zone of 1.3235. Most trend indicators on D1 point north. Among the oscillators, 55% are colored red, 20% are green and the remaining 25% are gray neutral. Trend indicators, as in the case of EUR/USD, have an overwhelming advantage on the side of the red ones: those are 90%. The nearest support is located in the area of 1.3080-1.3100, then 1.3050 and the low of March 15 (and at the same time of 2021-2022) - 1.3000, followed by the support of 2020. Resistance levels are 1.3160, 1.3190-1.3215, then 1.3270-1.3325, 1.3400, 1.3485, 1.3600, 1.3640. Among the events related to the economy of the United Kingdom, we can highlight the speech of the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey on Monday, April 4, as well as the publication of the Composite PMI and the Business Index UK services activity on Tuesday, April 05, and the Construction PMI on Wednesday, April 06. USD/JPY: 125.09: No More Anti-Records? The yen breaks an anti-record after an anti-record. The USD/JPY hit 122.43 on Friday, March 25, and it was already 263 points higher at 125.09 on Monday, March 28. The reason for the continued weakening of the Japanese currency is the same: the Bank of Japan, which does not want to change its super-soft monetary policy. Its head, Haruhiko Kuroda, once again stated on March 22 that it was too early to discuss the possibility of curtailing the quantitative easing (QE) program, as well as raising the interest rate. Recall that it has been at a negative level for a long time, minus 0.1%. In addition, the regulator was actively buying Japanese government bonds (JGB) throughout the past week in a desperate attempt to prevent their yield from breaking through the target level of 0.25%. Last week's high of 125.09 is already close to the 2015 high of 125.86. And if the pair manages to break higher, then, according to strategists at Credit Suisse, this will open the way for it to 135.20 in the long term, and then even higher, to the zone of 147.00-153.00. However, in their opinion, the correction that has begun now can be continued during the Q2, first to 119.79, then to 119.09, after which the pair will move to trading in the range of 119.00-125.00. Credit Suisse also believes that if the pair breaks through support at 119.09, then the pullback may become deeper, to the zone of 116.35-116.50. The same high for the Q2 is called by Rabobank specialists, who predict the pair's rise above 125.00 only in the second half of this year. They believe that the tightening of the Fed's policy is already built into the current dollar quotes, and this will hold back the growth of the pair in the coming months. However, the difference in interest rates and Japan's position as an importer of raw materials will play their role in Q3 and Q4, and the yen will continue to gradually weaken. A quick jump in USD/JPY above 125.00 will seriously increase the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will revise its quantitative easing (QE) program. As for the past week, after the pair rose to 125.09, a correction began. The low was recorded on Thursday, March 31 at 121.27, after which the pair went up again and finished at 122.54. With 50% of experts giving a bullish outlook for the coming week, it looks very moderate and sees the pair rising to the 124.00-124.50 zone as a target. 25% of analysts, on the contrary, vote for a further decline in the pair, and 25% have taken a neutral position. It should be noted that when switching to a monthly forecast, the vast majority (85%) of experts predict the strengthening of the Japanese currency and expect to see the pair in the 115.00-117.00 zone. Among the indicators on D1, there is almost complete unanimity after such a powerful breakthrough to the north. 90% of trend indicators and 100% of oscillators are looking up, although 25% of the oscillators are already in the overbought zone. The nearest resistance levels are 123.20, 124.20 and the March 28 high at 125.09. After that, as already mentioned, the bulls may try to reach the 2015 high at 125.86. The nearest support is 122.00, then 121.30. It is followed by zones 120.60-121.40, 119.00-119.40, 118.00-118.35. There are no expected releases of any important statistics on the state of the Japanese economy this week. CRYPTOCURRENCIES: What Whales and Short-Term Speculators Do Investors' risk appetite, which caused the growth of stock indices, continued to pull the crypto market with it at the beginning of last week. Bitcoin gained 28% and ethereum gained nearly 40% in just the second half of March. The main cryptocurrency reached the powerful resistance level of $45,000 on the evening of Friday, March 25, for the fifth time since the beginning of the year. It failed to gain a foothold above it the previous four times, the BTC/USD pair rolled back down. This time it seemed that the bulls finally achieved the long-awaited victory: the quotes recorded a local high at a height of $48.156 on March 28. However, after that, the pair hit the 200-day SMA and stopped rising. The most logical explanation for this stop is the strengthening of the dollar at the end of the past week. At the time of writing, April 01, the flagship cryptocurrency first returned to the $45,000 zone, which turned from resistance to support, and then rebounded to $46,500. The total market capitalization rose to $2.140 trillion ($1.995 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has also grown slightly: from 47 to 50 points. DataDash CEO Nicholas Merten believes that short-term investors and traders with leverage influence bitcoin volatility, and “whales” influence the growth. “There has been a lot of panic around the macro environment over the past couple of months,” Merten writes. The Fed is raising interest rates... The war between Ukraine and Russia, the potential next wave of COVID-19 - all these problems caused pessimism among small investors. At the same time, the “whales”, on the contrary, did not sell cryptocurrency... In fact, we saw how long-term investors continued to either buy more or hold bitcoin. One such investor was the well-known software developer MicroStrategy. The company has recently received a $205 million loan secured by its own crypto assets. The loan was issued by the American bank Silvergate. The purpose of the loan is to buy bitcoins. According to the Bitcoin Treasuries website, MicroStrategy already owns 125,051 BTC worth nearly $6 billion. And “this loan,” said Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, “is an opportunity to strengthen our position as a leader among public companies investing in bitcoin.” Note that MicroStrategy is not the only company that provides crypto assets as collateral. For this type of loans, Silvergate Bank has a special SEN Leverage program, the total amount of obligations for which has already exceeded $570 million. Despite numerous macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges, bitcoin is highly likely to enter the second half of a bear market, according to analysts at Glassnode. This is evidenced by the active accumulation of coins in the range of $35,000-42,000 and the absence of significant spending of bitcoins purchased in the Q1 2021. The share of BTC “aged” over a year has grown by 9.4% over the past eight months to close to a record 62.9%. The holders of these coins did not get rid of the asset in the face of two corrections of more than 50% in the last 12 months. The growth rate of this indicator is comparable to the market recovery in 2018-2019. And this may reflect increased investor confidence in bitcoin. At the same time, analysts at Glassnode warn that the process of bottoming and investor capitulation in a bear market is often lengthy and painful. Therefore, they urge not to rush into ascertaining the end of the bear market. A number of experts believe that a new strong correction to the south is only a matter of time. There are still no drivers for the rapid growth of quotations, and everything depends on the severity of the geopolitical situation and the dynamics of the global economic recovery. The $30,000 level may become the bearish target for the BTC/USD pair. Peter Brandt, CEO of Factor Trading, calls for caution in optimistic forecasts. This legendary trader tweeted to his 629,400 followers that BTC’s recent move reminded him of April 2019 when the top cryptocurrency bottomed at $3,500, starting the first phase of its bull cycle. However, the expert emphasizes that even a technical breakthrough does not guarantee that the coin will repeat the 2019 rally. “Charts DO NOT predict the future. The charts DO NOT even offer probabilities. Charts offer opportunities and are useful for risk management in a trading program. Chart patterns can either work, fail, or transform. If laser eyes reappear and BTC stops, be careful,” Brandt warns. Crypto analyst alias Dave the Wave posted a comment saying that bitcoin is forming a larger ascending triangle on the weekly timeframe and could rise to its all-time high of $69,000. We noted in the forecast for the last week of March that the position of ethereum is currently slightly better than that of bitcoin. The above growth figures are clear proof of this. Many investors are now buying ETH with BTC. In addition, the community is waiting for the long-awaited update to the ethereum mainnet. The Merge update is approaching rollout following successful testing on the testnet. Before its launch, more than $5.0 billion in ETH tokens had already been withdrawn from circulation as a result of burning. Since the burning reduces the overall supply of ethereum, this positively affects its price, contributing to the altcoin’s rally. Glassnode analysts have found that the volume of ethereum on exchanges has been declining in recent days. The inflow of this altcoin to the trading floors is 20% lower than its outflow, which creates the conditions for the formation of an ETH deficit. The growth in the value of the coin is observed against the backdrop of the activation of the ten largest ETH addresses. Whales have accumulated up to 23.7% of the total ethereum supply, according to a new report from analytics firm Santiment. And they are not going to dump their assets, preferring to send ETH to offline storage. A similar trend was observed in the first half of 2017, after which we saw the famous altcoin run during the hype five years ago. And at the end of the review, another piece of advice in our crypto life hacks section. Recall that we talk in it about the most interesting and unexpected ways to make money in this market. Have you ever wondered what the toilet is for? We will tell you: to mine cryptocurrency! This is exactly what Gabriel Kozak and Dušan Matuska from Slovakia decided. As a result, they created the AmityAge mining farm, which runs on electricity obtained from human and animal waste. Dušan Matushka, said that "their devices run on methane, which is produced during the biodegradation process." Since there is no shortage of such waste in the foreseeable future, BTC mining on their farm is not dependent on rising global energy prices. Moreover, it takes place in an environmentally friendly way using renewable energy sources, which completely removes all claims against this industry. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted April 4, 2022 Share Posted April 4, 2022 March 2022 Results: Three Most Successful NordFX Traders Earned Over 215,000 USD NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in March 2022. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed. Representatives of Central and South-East Asia took all three steps of the podium in March. - The highest monthly profit, 128,026 USD, was received by a client, account No.1620XXX, mainly on transactions with gold (XAU/USD). It should be noted that this trader is not new to our rating. So, they occupied second place with a score of 22.046 USD in February. - This time, the second step has been taken by the owner of account No.1403XXX, who earned 70,910 USD on transactions on BTC/USD, XAU/USD and USD/CAD pairs. - And, finally, the third place is occupied by a trader, account No.1594XXX, with a profit of 17,791 USD, whose main trading instrument is gold (XAU/USD). The situation in NordFX passive investment services is as follows: - CopyTrading still has an active provider under the nickname KennyFxPro. Signal with the complex name KennyFXPRO - Journey of $205 to $5,000 has shown a profit of 225% since March 2021 with a maximum drawdown of 67%. They increased their capital by almost 31% in March alone. As before, almost all trades were made with NZD/CAD, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD pairs. Such a famous pair as EUR/USD took only 0.21% in their arsenal. Another signal from the same supplier, KennyFXPRO-Prismo 2K, is two months younger than the first one, the profit on it is less - 112%, but the drawdown has also been lower - about 45%. - The leaders in the PAMM service have not changed over the past month either. Here we mark the manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO once again. True, the aggressiveness of their trading on the PAMM account is much lower than in CopyTrading. They increased their capital on the KennyFXPro-the Multi 3000 EA account by 92% in 432 days with a fairly moderate drawdown of less than 21%. TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 account, which showed a 67% profit in 330 days with a similar maximum drawdown of less than 21%, and NKFX-Ninja 136, which has generated 54% income since June 11, 2021, with the same drawdown of about 21%, are also among the leaders. The EUR/USD pair is still invisible among trading instruments. The vast majority of transactions were made with NZD/CAD, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD. It should also be noted that the maximum drawdown showed a slight increase in March: it increased by about 5% for all three listed accounts. Among the IB partners of NordFX, the TOP-3 also includes representatives of Central and Southeast Asia: - the largest commission, 8.952 USD, was accrued to the partner with account No.1336XXX, who moved from third place to first in a month and now leads the rating; - the next is the partner (account No.1229ХХХ), who received 3,881 USD; - and, finally, the partner with account No. 1336xxx, who received 5,789 USD as a reward, closes the top three. Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 CryptoNews of the Week - Miners mined the anniversary 19 millionth bitcoin On Friday, April 01. This event took place at block 730.002. At the time of writing, 90.48% of the total digital gold issue has been mined, which is limited to 21 million BTC. According to the algorithm laid down by Satoshi Nakamoto, the reward is reduced by 50% every 210,000 blocks. The next halving is expected in 2024. (For reference: the 18 millionth coin was mined on October 19, 2019). - The trend towards the accumulation of bitcoins among various market participants continued last week. Such well-known companies as Luna Foundation Guard and MicroStrategy are among them. Analysts from the Glassnode company noticed that, in addition to the “whales”, the so-called “shrimp” (addresses with a balance of less than 1 BTC) also contributed to the accumulation. Since the January 22 low, they have accumulated 0.58% of the market supply, bringing their share to 14.26%. At the moment, miners have already mined 19 million coins out of the 21 million provided by the algorithm, and the accumulation has become many times higher than the emission. Thanks to this, bitcoin may soon become a scarce asset. According to Glassnode, the rate of outflow of coins from centralized platforms has increased to 96,200 BTC per month, which is extremely rare in historical retrospect. Exchange balances fell to the levels of August 2018, breaking through the plateau observed since September 2021. The number of coins in bitcoin addresses that tend to accumulate rose by 217,000 BTC since December 04, 2021, to a record 2,854,000 BTC. Based on the figures presented, it is possible to obtain a daily accumulation rate of 1800 BTC, which is twice the emission rate. And this is despite the fact that the market has been under the pressure of the bears for most of this period. - The German Federal Criminal Police confiscated the German servers of the Hydra darknet marketplace. 543 BTC were also seized as part of the international operation with a total value of about 23 million euros. The investigation into the case has been ongoing since August 2021 with the participation of the US authorities. Hydra operators and administrators are suspected of providing opportunities for drug trafficking, fraudulent documents and money laundering. According to the police, the users of the darknet marketplace included about 17 million customers and more than 19 thousand sellers. Hydra accounted for 75% of all dark web revenue in 2020, at least 1.23 billion euros. The platform entered the top 10 platforms in terms of cryptocurrency turnover, beating the Kraken, OKX and Poloniex exchanges. - 21% of US residents have traded or invested in cryptocurrencies at least once, according to a survey conducted by NBC News. Only 19% of those surveyed expressed their positive attitude towards digital assets, 56% are neutral or cautious position, and 25% view them in a negative way. The agency explained this distrust by the lack of clear legislative regulation of this industry. - US Senate Banking Committee member Elizabeth Warren compared the digital asset market to the 2008 economic crisis in an interview with NBC. “The whole digital world is like a bubble. What is the basis for its growth? People tell each other that everything will be fine, as it was with the real estate market before it fell,” Warren explained. The senator added that bitcoin will be regulated by the authorities sooner or later. However, she did not specify how the government plans to achieve such control. - According to analysts at the investment company VanEck, the price of bitcoin could reach $4.8 million if the cryptocurrency becomes a global reserve asset. Such a forecast was obtained taking into account the M2 money supply, that is, the amount of cash in circulation and all kinds of non-cash funds. There is also a lower range - $1.3 million per 1 BTC, calculated based on the M0 money supply, which does not include non-cash funds. VanEck analysts warn that their forecast is only intended to serve as a starting point for investors who want to estimate the possible value of bitcoin in one of the unlikely scenarios. At the same time, according to the authors of the forecast, it is not bitcoin at all, but the Chinese yuan that is the primary contender for the status of world reserve currency. - A report from analytics firm IntoTheBlock says that long-term investors continue to hoard bitcoin. According to the results of Q1 22, the total amount of coins in the wallets of these market participants reached 12 million BTC, worth about $551.37 billion. “Long-term investors now own a record amount. This indicates an accumulation phase, helps ease selling pressure, and may help reinforce faith in bitcoin as a store of value,” IntoTheBlock said. Bitcoin is now showing an almost complete cyclical correlation with the S&P500, which recently hit 0.9. At the same time, the cryptocurrency with its inherent volatility rises faster and falls just as faster than the stock market. The company's analysts note that "bitcoin has now recovered most of its quarterly losses, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ended the first quarter with returns of -3.4% and -7.65%, respectively." - Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz has revised his bitcoin outlook. He believes that the arrival of new investors and innovations, developments in politics and the economy, and the acceptance of bitcoin by the authorities improve the forecasts for BTC for 2022. “Initially, I said that bitcoin would have an unstable year, that the price would fluctuate in the range of $30,000 to $50,000. But given how the markets are trading, new investors and innovation, the development of the Web3 and the metaverse, I'm more optimistic. Therefore, I won’t be surprised if cryptocurrencies grow significantly by the end of 2022,” the billionaire said. In his opinion, the adoption of bitcoin will continue, as everyone understands what an unstable world we live in. “Bitcoin began to write a new history at a time when Europe and the United States blocked Russia's financial flows. The military action in Ukraine creates a lot of inflationary pressure, generates a lot of risks and worries, but adds confidence to crypto investors and accelerates the adoption of digital assets,” the CEO of Galaxy Digital said. - Raoul Pal, a former Goldman Sachs employee and current Real Vision CEO, shares a similar opinion. He said in the MetaLearn podcast that the world is ready for a new wave of bitcoin adoption, and a further fall in the market will have a beneficial effect on its growth. “Sovereign states, especially wealth funds, will start looking for a long-term asset that will provide some security. Therefore, bitcoin will be studied by them and we will see its further adoption - not necessarily as a currency, but as an asset. I think this is a very interesting solution: the global use of bitcoin as a protective collateral reserve asset." According to Raul Pal, the macroeconomic situation suggests that the chances of another bitcoin sell-off are slim. Therefore, most market participants are likely to stick to a long-term strategy and not actively trade cryptocurrencies. - Cryptocurrency analyst and trader Cheds believes that a breakout of the ascending triangle pattern will take bitcoin to $58,000. “We have $46,000... and an ascending triangle,” Chads writes. - It is most logical to consider it as a bullish sign, since such a triangle is usually a bullish continuation pattern. The measured move will be the height of the triangle, which will bring us from $56,000 to $58,000.” At the same time, the expert advises traders to keep a close eye on the 200-day moving average as this technical indicator is currently acting as resistance. Chads believes that if the bulls manage to keep BTC above $45,000, the cryptocurrency will be ready to storm the SMA-200 resistance for a further 26% gain. Otherwise, the bulls face the risk of a sell-off. Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 11 - 15, 2022 EUR/USD: Three reasons for the Strengthening of the Dollar The proponents of a stronger dollar won by a very small margin in the previous forecast. 50% of analysts voted for its growth, 40% were against and 10% took a neutral position. The reason for such uncertainty and disagreement was that the market seemed to have already taken into account the increase in the dollar interest rate in 2022 for the quotes. However, despite this, the US currency has continued its growth. The DXY index has gained about 2% over the last week, and the EUR/USD pair, as predicted by bearish supporters, has broken through the support in the 1.0950-1.1000 zone and is aiming at the March 07 low of 1.0805. True, it has not yet managed to reach it, and the pair finished at 1.0874. So why is the dollar continuing to gain strength? There are three reasons for this. The first is the Fed's monetary policy, which is becoming increasingly tight. We are now talking about reducing the balance sheet, which the US regulator intends to reduce by more than $1 trillion a year. And this is equivalent to an additional 3-4 increases in the refinancing rate in 2022-23, 25 basis points each. US Treasury yields will also rise, making the dollar more attractive. The second and third causes are located on the other side of the Atlantic, in Europe. These are the presidential elections in France and new sanctions against Russia because of the armed conflict in Ukraine. The first round of elections will be held on Sunday 10 April. French opposition leader Marine Le Pen is Eurosceptic. Please note that she almost called for the exit of the country from the Eurozone in 2017. And even if the opposition loses the election, it will still put a spoke in the wheels of European integration. But if Marine Le Pen comes to power, the pan-European currency will certainly not do well. According to some analysts, the EUR/USD pair may fall to the level of 1.0500 or even lower. As for sanctions, we have repeatedly said that they negatively affect not only the Russian economy, but also the EU. First of all, because of the strong dependence of the European Union on Russian energy resources. In addition, one can add here the risks of Russia using nuclear weapons and the fact that military operations could turn into a catastrophe many times greater than Chernobyl. The most important event of the coming week will be the ECB meeting and the subsequent press conference of its leadership on Thursday April 14. The probability that the interest rate will remain at the previous zero level is very high. However, investors hope to receive signals on how the European regulator plans to respond to internal and external challenges. In the meantime, 45% of analysts vote for further strengthening of the dollar. The opposite opinion is shared by 35% and the remaining 20% of experts have taken a neutral position. All trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are colored red, although 25% of the latter give signals that the pair is oversold. The nearest target for EUR/USD bears will be March 7 low 1.0805. And if they manage to break through this support, they will then aim for the 2020 low of 1.0635 and the 2016 low of 1.0325. The bulls will try to lift the pair above the level of 1.1000, to overcome the resistance at 1.1050 and, if possible, to reach the zone of 1.1120-1.1137. Their next target is the March 31 high of 1.1184. In addition to the European Central Bank meeting, next week's economic calendar includes the release of German consumer data on Tuesday, April 12 and US consumer data on April 12 and 14. April 15 in the United States and most European countries is a day off, Good Friday. GBP/USD: Fed Hawks and Bank of England Doves The key and very strong support for the pair is the low of March 15 (and at the same time of 2021-2022), 1.3000. The GBP/USD bears went to break through it, reaching 1.2981 on April 08 during the US session. It seems that European traders, including British ones, are hesitant. But the Americans treat European currencies with disdain, to put it mildly, and continue to put pressure on them against the backdrop of the hawkish minutes of the Fed meeting and the comments of the top leaders of this regulator. As for their colleagues from the Bank of England, the latest comments of these officials were very soft, and raised doubts in the market as to whether the Bank will be able to justify the expectations of tightening monetary policy. The last chord of the week after the rebound sounded at 1.3031. If the GBP/USD pair still manages to consolidate below 1.3000, this will open the way for it to the November 2020 lows around 1.2850, and then to the lows of September 2020 in the 1.2700 zone. This development is supported by only 35% of analysts. The remaining 65% are waiting for a correction to the north, and here the levels 1.3050, 1.3100 and the zone 1.3185-1.3215 will act as resistance, then 1.3270-1.3325 and 1.3400. All indicators on D1, as in the case of EUR/USD, point south, 15% of oscillators signal the pair is oversold. As for the events concerning the economy of the United Kingdom, we can highlight the publication of data on the country's GDP and industrial production on Monday April 11, as well as on retail sales on Tuesday April 12. We will receive a package of information from the UK labor market on the same day, and we will get information from its consumer market on Wednesday, April 13. USD/JPY: Japanese Are Against A Weak Yen We titled our previous review as “125.09: No More Anti-Records?”. After a week, we can say that not yet, there will not be. And although the USD/JPY pair was moving north for a while, it fixed a local maximum at 124.67 this time, and ended the trading session at 124.36. Recall that due to the super-soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, the yen continued to weaken, and the USD/JPY pair reached a record multi-year level of 125.09 on March 28, which is not far from the 2015 high of 125.86. There are no expected releases of any important statistics on the state of the Japanese economy this week. The only thing that can be noted is the speech of the head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, on Wednesday, April 13. But it is unlikely to pull on a sensation. Although here one should take into account the statement of Hideo Hayakawa, the former chief economist of this organization, that against the background of the weakening yen, the Japanese Central Bank may adjust the parameters of monetary policy in July. “While the Bank of Japan has repeatedly said that the weak yen is positive for the economy as a whole, in reality this impact is close to 50/50, and household discomfort will increase further as inflation in Japan rises as well. The vast majority of Japanese do not welcome the weak yen,” Hideo Hayakawa said on April 8. In his opinion, "it is too naive for the Bank of Japan to say that a weak yen is good when the government takes measures to solve the problem of rising prices and limiting gasoline prices." Strategists at Rabobank also believe that a quick USD/JPY jump above 125.00 increases seriously the likelihood that the Japanese regulator will revise its quantitative easing (QE) program. At the moment, the probability that the pair will try a second test of resistance in the 125.00-125.09 area is estimated as 50/50. However, when moving from a weekly forecast to a forecast for the second half of April and May, the vast majority (85%) of experts predict the strengthening of the Japanese currency and expect to see the pair in the 115.00-117.00 zone. Among the indicators on D1, as in the previous two cases, there is complete unanimity: 100% of trend indicators and 100% of oscillators look up, although 25% of the latter are in the overbought zone. Given the high volatility of the pair, the zones 123.65-124.05, 122.35-123.00 and 121.30 can be identified as supports. Then follow the zones 120.60-121.30, 119.00-119.40, 118.00-118.35. CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Correction or the Beginning of a New Collapse Miners mined the anniversary 19 millionth bitcoin On Friday, April 01, out of the 21 million provided by the algorithm. That is, less than 10% is left to be mined. And this is it. Thanks to this, bitcoin, as conceived by its creator (or creators), will become a super-scarce asset, which will push its value further and further up. This is what many market participants are counting on. The trend towards the accumulation of digital gold has continued lately. Analysts from the Glassnode company noticed that, in addition to the “whales”, the so-called “shrimp” (addresses with a balance of less than 1 BTC) also contributed to the accumulation. Since the January 22 low, they have accumulated 0.58% of the market supply, bringing their share to 14.26%. The volumes of accumulation began to exceed emission many times over. According to Glassnode, the rate of outflow of coins from centralized platforms has increased to 96,200 BTC per month, which is extremely rare in historical retrospect. Exchange balances fell to the levels of August 2018, breaking through the plateau observed since September 2021. The number of coins in bitcoin addresses that tend to accumulate rose by 217,000 BTC since December 04, 2021 to a record 2,854,000 BTC. Based on the figures presented, it is possible to obtain a daily accumulation rate of 1800 BTC, which is twice the emission rate. This trend is confirmed by the report of the analytical company IntoTheBlock. According to it, the total amount of coins in the wallets of long-term investors reached a record 12 million BTC in Q1 2022 worth more than $551 billion. “This indicates a phase of accumulation, which can help strengthen faith in bitcoin as a store of value,” IntoTheBlock believes. The most fantastic forecast regarding the future of the main cryptocurrency has been given by analysts from the investment company VanEck. According to their calculations, the price of bitcoin could reach $4.8 million if the cryptocurrency becomes a global reserve asset. Such a forecast was obtained taking into account the M2 money supply, that is, the amount of cash in circulation and all kinds of non-cash funds. There is also a lower range - $1.3 million per 1 BTC, calculated based on the M0 money supply, which does not include non-cash funds. VanEck analysts warn that their forecast is only intended to serve as a starting point for investors who want to estimate the possible value of bitcoin in one of the unlikely scenarios. At the same time, according to the authors of the forecast, it is not bitcoin at all, but the Chinese yuan that is the primary contender for the status of world reserve currency. Even the most notorious crypto fans understand that millions of dollars per coin are still infinitely far away. However, as for the foreseeable future, a number of scenarios look quite optimistic here. Thus, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz believes that the arrival of new investors and innovations, developments in politics and the economy, and the acceptance of bitcoin by the authorities improve the forecasts for BTC for 2022. “Initially, I said that bitcoin would have an unstable year, that the price would fluctuate in the range of $30,000 to $50,000. But given how the markets are trading, new investors and innovation, the development of the Web3 and the metaverse, I'm more optimistic. Therefore, I won’t be surprised if cryptocurrencies grow significantly by the end of 2022,” the billionaire said. In his opinion, the adoption of bitcoin will continue as everyone understands what an unstable world we live in. “Bitcoin began to write a new history at a time when Europe and the United States blocked Russia's financial flows. The military action in Ukraine creates a lot of inflationary pressure, generates a lot of risks and worries, but adds confidence to crypto investors and accelerates the adoption of digital assets,” the CEO of Galaxy Digital said. Raoul Pal, a former Goldman Sachs employee and current Real Vision CEO, shares a similar opinion. He said in the MetaLearn podcast that the world is ready for a new wave of bitcoin adoption, and a further fall in the market will have a beneficial effect on its growth. “Sovereign states, especially wealth funds, will start looking for a long-term asset that will provide some security. Therefore, bitcoin will be studied by them and we will see its further adoption - not necessarily as a currency, but as an asset. I think this is a very interesting solution: the global use of bitcoin as a protective collateral reserve asset." According to Raul Pal, the macroeconomic situation suggests that the chances of another bitcoin sell-off are slim. Therefore, most market participants are likely to stick to a long-term strategy and not actively trade cryptocurrencies. However, digital gold stopped rising after reaching a high of $48,156 on March 28. The bulls have not been able to push the BTC/USD pair above the 200-day moving average, and at the time of writing, on the evening of April 08, it is trading around $43,000. The total market capitalization is below the important psychological level of $2 trillion, having fallen from $2.140 trillion to $1.985 trillion during the week. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index also began to feel worse, falling from neutral 50 to 37 points, which are already in the Fear zone. Renowned analyst and trader Cheds views the ascending triangle that has been forming since January 24 as a bullish sign. Such a triangle, he says, is usually a bullish continuation pattern. And in the event of an upside breakout, “the measurable move will be the height of the triangle, which will bring from $56,000 to $58,000.” At the same time, the expert advises traders to keep a close eye on the 200-day moving average as this technical indicator is currently acting as resistance. Chads believes that if the bulls manage to keep BTC above $45,000, the cryptocurrency will be ready to storm the SMA-200 resistance for a further 26% gain. Otherwise, the bulls face the risk of a sell-off. As mentioned, BTC/USD is currently trading at $43,000, below Cheds' support. However, given the volatility of the flagship cryptocurrency, the victory of the bears cannot yet be considered complete. A breakthrough to the south may be false. Moreover, bitcoin has ceased to be independent. It was in 2010, when 10,000 BTC could buy two pizzas, when it lived its own life. Now it has matured and become part of the global economy. Bitcoin is now showing an almost complete cyclical correlation with the S&P 500, which has recently hit 0.9. And it falls after the US stock market. And the latter, in turn, depends on the risk appetites of global investors. If the craving for risky assets recovers, the crypto market will also go up. Otherwise, according to some experts, we can expect the BTC/USD pair to decline to March lows near $37,000 per coin. The probability of quotes falling even lower, to $30,000, is also quite high. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 CryptoNews of the Week - Bitcoin remains hyper volatile, but its turnover is inferior to other assets, which does not allow us to talk about the high “speculativeness” of the first cryptocurrency. This, according to Financial News, was stated by Tom Lee, co-founder of the analytical firm Fundstrat. According to Lee's calculations, the turnover of bitcoins is 2:1, while that of the US dollar is 96:1, and that of a barrel of oil is 31:1. “Today, with […] penetration rates so low, one would expect bitcoin to be hyper volatile. But as 9 out of 10 households invest in the first cryptocurrency, its price fluctuations will weaken,” the specialist explained. - David Rubenstein, co-founder of the investment fund Carlyle Group, admitted that he had been skeptical about cryptocurrencies, but his opinion changed over time. He emphasized that he did not buy cryptocurrencies, but “invested in companies that serve the industry.” "The genie is out of the bottle, and I don't think the industry is going to disappear anytime soon," the billionaire said. He also pointed to the crisis in Ukraine as an additional reason for his current optimism. “If you are in Ukraine or Russia and the country is in a lot of trouble, having some crypto will probably make you feel better as you have something out of government control,” Rubenstein noted. - The cryptocurrency industry will become the twelfth sector of the S&P 500 index in the next decade. This was stated by investor and star of the television show Shark Tank Kevin O'Leary. Currently, the S&P 500 benchmark includes 11 sectors of the economy, and most experts advise investing no more than 20% of the portfolio in any of them. According to O'Leary, he adheres to this strategy when investing in cryptocurrencies. The millionaire said that he holds 32 positions in the digital asset sector, and none of them takes more than 5% of the prescribed 20%. O'Leary stressed that investment diversification is one of the founding principles because "you have no idea what might work." In his opinion, even two successful bets out of ten can recoup unprofitable investments. - According to Bloomberg analysts, the value of the flagship cryptocurrency may soon fall to $26,000. The experts emphasized that if the technical analysis pattern called “bear flag” works, then such a scenario will be inevitable. In their opinion, the BTC rate is now on its way to testing a key support level around $37,500. If it does not hold above this mark, the market is in for a disaster. Bloomberg specialists also noted that they took into account the Coinglass report. According to this company, about $439 million worth of crypto positions were liquidated on April 12. At the same time, more than 88% of closed orders accounted for long positions. Bitcoin futures contracts for $160 million were also closed. - Philosopher and professor of psychology at the University of Toronto Jordan Peterson spoke at at the Bitcoin-2022 conference in Miami and called the first cryptocurrency revolutionary but causing concern. As a sociologist, Peterson worries about getting money out of the control of the political system. According to him, new ideas can bring unforeseen consequences, and not only positive ones. “I am not suggesting that you do anything as a result of this warning. I'm just saying that the unbridled enthusiasm is based on the assumption that the new system will only do good. It's unreasonable," Peterson said. - Group-IB specialists identified 36 fraudulent YouTube streams dedicated to investing in cryptocurrencies in the period from February 16 to February 18. They brought the scammers about $1.7 million during these three days. The attackers edited videos from old speeches by famous representatives of the crypto community and entrepreneurs. More often than others, the images of Vitalik Buterin, Elon Musk, Michael Saylor, Changpeng Zhao and Cathy Wood were used. On average, the audience of one such stream ranged from 3,000 to 18,000 people. And the fake stream with Buterin gathered more than 165,000 viewers. During the broadcast, users were offered to transfer cryptocurrencies to the specified wallet and allegedly receive them back in double. To receive an “additional bonus”, the attackers offered the investor to provide the seed phrase of their crypto wallet. If the victim agreed, the scammers withdrew all the funds on it. In total, the deceived viewers made 281 transactions. Ethereum turned out to be the most popular among scammers. Most of the domains involved in the broadcasts appeared through the Russian registrar Reg.ru. - Geoffrey Halley of Oanda stated that the flagship cryptocurrency continues to trade within the established range, the lower limit of which is at $36,500. If BTC falls even more, it can lead to serious losses for traders and investors. However, if the price of bitcoin soars in the near future above the upper limit of the range of $47,500, this will be a prerequisite for reaching a new record high. - Crypto trader known as Cheds told their 45,100 YouTube followers that the bears are now in control and any bounce is an opportunity to go short on BTC. Cheds also believes that the next rally is likely to be a bear trap rather than a trend reversal. - One of the by-products of bitcoin mining is the excess heat from the operation of crypto farms, which Jonathan Yuan took advantage of. He has kids who love swimming in the pool. However, they almost did not do this because the water was too cold. Yuan himself is actively involved in mining, and drew attention to the fact that his equipment generates too much heat. He purchased a heat exchanger and used it to install a system for heating water. According to him, thanks to this invention, the temperature in the pool can be maintained at approximately 32° C. At the same time, the Yuan crypto farm thus received a water-cooling system. However, when the inventor pushed his ASIC miners to the limit, the temperature in the pool rose above 43°C, which also did not please his children. Jonathan Yuan notes that almost everything can be heated according to this principle: living premises, garages and so on. It is assumed that the heating temperature can reach a maximum threshold of 60°C. - Well-known writer and investor Robert Kiyosaki fully agrees with the opinion of analysts who believe that the US dollar and other markets are on the verge of collapse due to rising food, oil and energy prices, as well as widespread inflation. The author of the bestselling book Rich Dad Poor Dad assured that what is happening in the world of finance is a sign of a coming crisis, and this process will simply destroy half the US population. He noted that cryptocurrencies in this situation are a good tool to reduce risks, but not all people resort to using this asset class. Kiyosaki emphasized that now 40% of Americans do not even have $1,000 in their savings. The inflation rate is rising, and this figure will soon exceed 50%. Then, according to the investor, a revolution will begin. - Michael Saylor, CEO of Microstrategy, a company known for investing in bitcoin, and Cathie Wood, CEO of investment firm Arch Invest, contacted at the Bitcoin 2022 conference in Miami. Both participants of the panel discussion still believe in bitcoin and are waiting for its growth, and the current situation in the market does not upset them at all. In their opinion, the Fed's monetary policy will continue to be inflationary, pushing prices up. In such a situation, according to Cathie Wood, bitcoin, as a means of hedging, has great potential for growth and its price could reach a record $1 million per coin. “It takes quite a bit of effort to do this,” the head of Arch Invest said. "We don't need much. All we need is for 2.5% of all assets to be converted to bitcoin.” Both panellists believe that regulators are getting better at the flagship cryptocurrency. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoke mostly negatively about bitcoin a year ago, referring to “money laundering, criminals, environmental damage” and so on. However, a lot has changed since then. “Someone whispered in her ear: if you want to lose, and if you want the US to lose, keep saying that. And she changed the record,” Wood shared an "inside info". - As part of the Bitcoin-2022 conference, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez presented a statue of a “crypto bull”. According to him, the installation symbolizes the transformation of the city into the “world capital of the crypto industry”. In contrast to its Wall Street's famous Charging Bull sibling, the Miami bull is cybernetically inspired and has the now-famous "laser eyes." The crypto community seems to like the new statue. Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano wrote that “the bulls are in control,” while Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao called the installation “pretty cool.” - Morningstar analysts posted a report claiming that cryptocurrencies are no match for the stock and bond markets in terms of returns. At the same time, they note that bitcoin “is still too risky to be compared to gold.” The authors of the report argue that, despite the prospect of significant profits that the cryptocurrency market can offer its participants, one must be very careful with it. “Every breathtaking rally has led to an equally brutal crash at the end. Cryptocurrencies lack a fundamental anchor, such as the face value of bonds or the discounted cash flows of stocks,” Morningstar notes. Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 18 - 22, 2022 EUR/USD: Fed's Apples and ECB's Oranges The dollar continues to strengthen, while the EUR/USD pair moves down. A week's low was recorded at 1.0757 after the ECB meeting on Thursday, April 14. After correction, the final chord, sounded at around 1.0808. We named three reasons for the growth of the US currency in the previous forecast. The first is the difference between the monetary policies of the Fed and the ECB. Now, the probability of further tightening the position of the US Central bank has increased even more against the background of the latest data on inflation in the United States: the consumer price index has exceeded the forty-year high and reached 8.5%. Such an acceleration of inflation may force the regulator to act more vigorously and to revise its plans to raise the key rate and reduce the balance sheet in May. New York Fed President John Williams, who is also vice chairman of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), said in an interview with Bloomberg that it makes sense for the Fed to bring interest rates to a neutral level as soon as possible, which, not stimulating, it does not hinder economic growth, and is in the range from 2% to 2.5%. Therefore, a 0.5% increase in federal borrowing costs at the May FOMC meeting looks quite realistic. In contrast to the Fed's hawks, their European counterparts remain extremely dovish. The ECB left the interest rate unchanged at 0% at its meeting on April 14, which, in fact, was expected. Moreover, the Bank's representatives have already said earlier that the growth in the cost of lending in the context of continuing economic uncertainty could do more harm than good. The head of the regulator, Christine Lagarde, confirmed at a press conference that followed the meeting that the ECB is moving more slowly than the Fed, and that the Eurozone will be hit harder by the military actions in Ukraine. The American and European economies, according to Ms. Lagarde, are as incomparable as apples and oranges. Such a fruity allegory made a strong impression on the market, as a result of which the EUR/USD pair collapsed to the zone of two-year lows. Indeed, the current economic situation in the euro area does not inspire optimism and, according to many experts, will continue to worsen in the future. The German economic sentiment index published last week fell to a new multi-month low: minus 41.0 (minus 39.3 a month earlier). The index of current economic conditions of this locomotive of the European economy also fell to minus 30.8 in April (minus 21.4 in March). Against this background, the German GDP growth forecast for 2022 was lowered from 4.5% to 2.7%. The situation may become even more complicated, as the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and the head of EU diplomacy Josep Borrell announced their intention to include restrictions on the export of hydrocarbons from Russia in the next package of anti-Russian sanctions. Thus, the risk of stagflation in Europe remains at a fairly high level. We mentioned another reason for the pressure on the euro - the presidential elections in France in the previous review. Their first round took place on Sunday April 10. So far, the incumbent President Emmanuel Macron is leading with 27.84% of the vote. Marine Le Pen, head of the far-right National Rally Party, gained 23.15%. The gap is not very large and there is still a possibility that the opposition may win in the second round on April 24. Its leader Marine Le Pen is a Eurosceptic. Please note that she called for almost the exit of the country from the Eurozone back in 2017. And if this lady comes to power, the EUR/USD pair, according to a number of analysts, may fall to the level of 1.0500, or even lower. There is another factor pushing the pair south, which is the deterioration of global risk appetite. The S&P500 stock index has been falling for the third week in a row, while demand for safe-haven assets such as the dollar and US Treasuries, on the contrary, is growing. At the moment, 50% of analysts vote for further strengthening of the dollar. The opposite opinion is shared by 40% and the remaining 10% of experts have taken a neutral position. All trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are colored red, although 15% of the latter give signals that the pair is oversold. The nearest support is located at the level of 1.0800. The nearest target for EUR/USD bears will be April 14 low at 1.0757. And if they manage to break through this support, they will then aim for the 2020 low of 1.0635 and the 2016 low of 1.0325. The bulls will try to lift the pair above the 1.1000 level and, if possible, reach the 1.1050 zone. But to do this, they first need to overcome the 1.0840 and 1.0900-1.0930 resistances. The upcoming week's calendar includes speeches by Fed and ECB heads Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde on Thursday April 21. Data on unemployment and manufacturing activity in the US will also be published on this day. As for the indicators of business activity in Germany and the Eurozone as a whole, they will become known on Friday, April 22. GBP/USD: Battle for 1.3000 In the previous forecast, most experts (65%) supported the correction of the GBP/USD pair to the north and were absolutely right. It seemed at the beginning of the week that the victory was on the side of the bears: they managed to overcome the support in the 1.3000 zone and lower the pair to 1.2972. Recall that 1.3000 is a key support/resistance level as it is not only the March 15 low, but also the 2021-2022 low. The bulls managed to seize the initiative on Wednesday, April 13, break through this resistance, reach the height of 1.3147 and complete the week also above it, at around 1.3060. The pound was supported by a possible tactical victory of the Bank of England over the FRS in the fight for raising interest rates. Inflation in the UK increased from 6.2% to 7.0%. The Bank of England predicted that it would peak in April, accelerating to 7.2%. However, a number of banks did not agree with the regulator's opinion, believing that inflation will not stop at this point, reaching 9.0% in April, and then its growth will continue. Therefore, the Bank of England will have to do something about it. And this “something” is, of course, another increase in interest rates. It was this prospect that pushed the British currency to growth. We can expect the battle for 1.3000 to continue next week. If the victory is on the side of the bears, they will try to update the April 13 low of 1.2972 and open the way to the November 2020 lows around 1.2850, and then to the September 2020 lows in the zone 1.2700. The nearest support is 1.3050. 30% of analysts vote for the victory of the bears, while the majority (70%) side with the bulls. The resistance levels are 1.3100, 1.3150 and the zone 1.3190-1.3215, then 1.3270-1.3325 and 1.3400. Among the indicators on D1, the advantage of the reds is evident. Among the oscillators, 75% are colored in this color, another 15% are green and 10% are neutral gray. Trend indicators have 100% on the red side. Among the events concerning the economy of the United Kingdom, we can highlight the speeches of the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey on April 21 and 22. Data on business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors of the UK will also be published on Friday, April 22. USD/JPY: Do We Expect New Anti-records from the Yen? It seems that nothing can stop the fall of the yen and the growth of the USD/JPY pair. The Japanese currency sets an anti-record after an anti-record, and the pair recorded another high at 126.67. The last time it climbed so high was on May 01, 2002, that is, 20 years ago. We noted in the last review that the majority of Japanese people are against the weak yen. However, despite this, the Bank of Japan still refuses to raise the key rate and reduce monetary easing. The regulator believes that maintaining economic activity is much more important than fighting inflation. And this divergence with the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy is pushing the USD/JPY further north. The pair closed the week's trading session at 126.37. 45% of analysts vote for maintaining the uptrend next week. A little more, 55%, remembering a powerful correction to the south after a similar rally in the last week of March, expect something similar now. It should be noted here that when switching to the forecast for may-June, the number of supporters of the dollar strengthening increases to 80%. We have already cited Rabobank strategists who believe that a quick USD/JPY jump above 125.00 will seriously increase the likelihood that the Japanese regulator will revise its quantitative easing (QE) program. And this jump took place last week. There is complete unanimity among the indicators on D1: 100% of trend indicators and 100% of oscillators look up, although 35% of the latter are in the overbought zone. Without a doubt, the main support in the coming days will be the levels of 126.00 and 125.00. Then, taking into account the high volatility of the pair, we can single out the zones 123.65-124.05, 122.35-123.00 and 120.60-121.30. As for the plans of the bulls, they will try to update the high of April 15, and rise above 127.00. An attempt to designate their subsequent goals, focusing on the levels of 20 years ago, will rather look like fortune telling. There are no expected releases of any important statistics on the state of the Japanese economy this week. CRYPTOCURRENCIES: April 12: Space Flight Day. But not for bitcoin. It is impossible to call the first half of April successful for the crypto market. And if bitcoin was still trying to jump over the 200-day SMA two weeks ago, on April 04, then the bulls completely capitulated and a local low was recorded at $39.210 on April 12. It is noteworthy that Cosmonautics Day is celebrated on this day: Yuri Gagarin went into space and circled the planet Earth on April 12, 1961, for the first time in the world. The BTC/USD pair did not make a breakthrough to the stars. Rather, we observed a fall from orbit. As of this writing, on the evening of Friday, April 15, the pair is trading around $40,440. The total market capitalization has slightly decreased and is still below the important psychological level of $2 trillion, at the level of $1.880 trillion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index did not stay in the previous orbit either: it fell from 37 to 22 points and returned to the Extreme Fear zone. We wrote earlier that bitcoin has become a part of the global economy and now demonstrates a strong correlation with stock indices. Therefore, its quotes chart is largely congruent, first of all, with the S&P500 chart. So, as of March 2022, according to Arcana Research, the correlation coefficient between BTC and S&P500 was 0.497. The main cryptocurrency falls and rises after the stock market. And that, in turn, falls or rises depending on the actions of the US Federal Reserve. There is no longer any question of bitcoin's independence. As we have already mentioned, there has recently been a clear trend towards the accumulation of digital gold. The volumes of accumulation began to exceed emission many times over. According to Glassnode, the rate of outflow of coins from centralized platforms has increased to 96,200 BTC per month, which is extremely rare in historical retrospect. In addition to the “whales”, the so-called “shrimps” (addresses with a balance of less than 1 BTC) also contributed to the accumulation. So why doesn't hodle sentiment lead to higher prices? The answer is simple: no new investors. The old ones either go into the state of long-term holders of coins, or get rid of them. Approximately $439 million worth of crypto positions were liquidated on April 12 alone, according to Coinglass. At the same time, more than 88% of closed orders accounted for long positions. Bitcoin futures contracts for $160 million were also closed. But there is no strong inflow of new investments into the crypto sector. Investors have lost their appetite for risk since the end of March, the DXY dollar index and US 10-year bond yields reach new highs on a regular basis. Due to rising inflation, which reached 8.5% in the US in March, the markets are waiting for the US Central Bank to raise interest rates again at the May meeting, and not by 0.25%, but immediately by 0.5%. This is the reason why interest from high-risk assets flows to more conservative instruments. According to Bloomberg analysts, the value of the flagship cryptocurrency may soon fall to $26,000. The experts emphasized that if the technical analysis pattern called “bear flag” works, then such a scenario will be inevitable. In their opinion, the BTC rate is now on its way to testing a key support level around $37,500. If it does not hold above this mark, the market is in for a disaster. Analyst Jeffrey Halley's forecast sounds slightly more optimistic. He believes that the flagship cryptocurrency continues to trade within the established range, the lower limit of which is at $36,500. If BTC falls even more, it can lead to serious losses for traders and investors. However, if the price of bitcoin soars in the near future above the upper limit of the range of $47,500, this will be a prerequisite for reaching a new record high. There are also influencers who are not worried or upset by the current market situation at all. These include Michael Saylor, CEO of Microstrategy, a company known for its investments in bitcoin, and Cathie Wood, head of investment company Arch Invest, who still believe in bitcoin and look forward to its growth. Saylor and Wood spoke at the Bitcoin 2022 conference in Miami and concluded that the Fed's monetary policy will continue to be inflationary, pushing prices up. In such a situation, according to Cathie Wood, bitcoin, as a means of hedging, has great potential for growth and its price could reach a record $1 million per coin. “It takes quite a bit of effort to do this,” the head of Arch Invest said. "We don't need much. All we need is for 2.5% of all assets to be converted to bitcoin.” Well-known writer and investor Robert Kiyosaki has a similar opinion, he believes that the US dollar and other markets are on the verge of collapse due to rising food, oil and energy prices, as well as widespread inflation. The author of the bestselling book Rich Dad Poor Dad assured that what is happening in the world of finance is a sign of a coming crisis, and this process will simply destroy half the US population. He noted that cryptocurrencies in this situation are a good tool to reduce risks, but not all people resort to using this asset class. Kiyosaki emphasized that now 40% of Americans do not even have $1,000 in their savings. The inflation rate is rising, and this figure will soon exceed 50%. Then, according to the investor, a revolution will begin. Morningstar analysts posted a report claiming that cryptocurrencies are no match for the stock and bond markets in terms of returns. At the same time, they note that bitcoin “is still too risky to be compared to gold.” The authors of the report argue that, despite the prospect of significant profits that the cryptocurrency market can offer its participants, one must be very careful with it. “Every breathtaking rally has led to an equally brutal crash at the end,” Morningstar notes. It is difficult to argue that speculation or investment in digital assets is quite risky. But there are certain things in this business, as in any other, that allow you to get additional benefits. It is about them that we regularly talk about in our crypto life hacks section. This time it's about heat energy and a man named Jonathan Yuan who has kids who love to swim in the pool. However, they almost did not do this because the water was too cold. Yuan himself is actively involved in mining and drew attention to the fact that his equipment generates too much heat. He purchased a heat exchanger and used it to install a system for heating water. According to him, thanks to this invention, the temperature in the pool can be maintained at about 32° C, and the crypto farm receives a water cooling system. Jonathan Yuan notes that almost everything can be heated according to this principle: living premises, garages and so on. It is assumed that the heating temperature can reach a maximum threshold of 60°C. There are nuances here, however. When the inventor pushed his ASIC miners to the limit, the temperature in the pool rose above 43°C. His children did not like it either and they stopped swimming again. So, the ancient Greek “father” of medicine, Hippocrates, was right, saying “good things in small doses”. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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