Stan NordFX Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 What is Forex Market What is Forex? This is a huge over-the-counter marketplace where various currencies are exchanged. Its turnover exceeds 5 trillion dollars a day! (For comparison: the turnover of all world stock markets is "just" about 85 billion dollars, that is, almost 60 times less). Forex was created for international commercial activity, but today there are not only companies conducting such work, but also private traders who have received access to trade, as well as investors whose main purpose is to profit from fluctuating quotations. In this article, we will look at the history of the emergence and formation of the international currency exchange market, the main participants in this market, as well as the principles of trading. Is Forex an Exchange or Not? You can often find on the internet the opinions of traders who say that Forex is an exchange. In fact, this is not the case. An exchange is a separate platform for trading. Forex is an over-the-counter market, that is, there is no common platform for currency exchange transactions. At its core, the Forex market is a set of market makers (banks) that offer their services to everyone who wants to exchange certain currencies. Some banks are merging into larger aggregators to increase liquidity. Subsequently, all those who want to participate in trades connect to market makers and gain access to their Depth of Market (table of orders for buying and selling currencies). Forex Market History We owe the emergence of the modern international currency market to the 37th President of the United States, Richard Nixon. It was he who abolished the gold standard and the possibility of converting American currency into gold. The Bretton Woods Agreement was signed In 1944, which set the dollar standard. The American currency, in turn, turned out to be pegged to gold. However, this system lasted less than 30 years. The Smithsonian Accord was signed In 1971 in response to the economic crisis of the time. In fact, it was this document that caused the subsequent devaluation of the American currency. The agreement was signed by 10 states at the Smithsonian Institution. The agreement resulted in three key decisions that the American president described as historic. First and foremost, the criteria for revising the exchange rates were agreed. This led to the subsequent decline of the US dollar. At the same time, the value of other currencies of countries from the so-called “Group of Ten” rose against the dollar. Another important result is the setting of a limit for exchange rate fluctuations. This made it possible to temporarily exclude floating exchange rates and their sharp fall. Finally, the United States agreed to remove the 10% foreign duty surcharge. As a result of this agreement, the price of gold rose to $ 38 per ounce, exchange rate fluctuations increased to 2.25% in relation to par, and, finally, the value of many currencies changed. Despite the fact that the Smithsonian Agreement played an important role, it was the Kingston Meeting of the IMF member countries that laid the foundation for the modern Forex market. Let's look at the main changes in the world monetary system: - Cancellation of the exchange of dollars for gold. From this point on, no other currency is tied to the gold standard. Gold has become a commodity market instrument. - IMF member countries have been able to choose their own exchange rate regime. In total, there are three main types: a free floating rate, limited (a corridor to some currencies and floating to others) and fixed. - There is a new type of international means of payment: SDR (Special Drawing Rights). - Countries have received more opportunities to conduct independent financial policies. Forex Market Key Participants Forex market participants include banks, various funds and financial organizations, brokers, dealing centers , private traders and investors. Let's take a closer look at each of the groups. Central banks are among the key players in the currency market. Their main task is to maintain the stability of the national currency exchange rate and fulfill certain economic and financial goals. In modern realities, Central Banks have several mandates, among them, for example, achieving certain inflation or labour market targets. The Central Banks achieve their goals, among other things, by targeting (controlling) the exchange rate levels in the international arena. Central banks can influence the currency market through direct interventions, as well as through interest rate changes or verbal influence (when executives make comments in which they can point out too overvalued or, conversely, undervalued national currency). Commercial banks are the main players in the international currency market. The vast majority of operations go through them. They are intermediaries between companies engaged in foreign economic activity. Commercial banks are also aggregators and providers of liquidity, that is, market makers. Various financial organizations and funds can also be noted here. Their main goal is to increase clients' capital and work with assets. The best known is George Soros's Quantum. Also, notable organizations include “Omaha Oracle” Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. Although the latter is unlikely to resort to investment strategies aimed at dealing with currencies. They definitely use Forex services to buy securities on local stock exchanges. Dealers and brokers are another group of Forex market participants. These are companies providing services to private traders and investors. Here, clients can open trading accounts, make transactions using a variety of trading platforms, undergo training, work with analytics and much more. What is the difference between a broker and a dealing center? The key is that the broker acts as an intermediary between the trader and the market. The dealing center is also a market maker, that is, it itself acts as a market for its clients. However, at present there are almost no purely dealing centers. All companies, basically, work on a mixed principle. For clients with small trading accounts and turnovers, they act as a counterparty, and for larger traders and investors - as a broker, that is, an intermediary connecting traders with liquidity providers such as large international banks. Traders and Basic Principles of Work in Financial Markets As mentioned above, traders are also participants in the Forex market. They, among other things, maintain the level of liquidity, which is a positive point for currency trading. These market participants perform their trading operations through the trading terminal offered by the broker. Before starting trading, a trader needs to complete some preparatory activities. First of all, you need to learn how to open a trading account and where to do so. To do this, you can familiarize yourself with the trading conditions of the broker NordFX and open your account with this company. The Forex trading scheme is quite simple - you open a trading account, download the trader's terminal and start making trades. However, in order to trade Forex profitably, this is clearly not enough. You need to gain some knowledge, develop your own trading system, fund your trading account and carefully monitor your risks. At NordFX, transfers to a trading account can be made from bank cards and accounts, as well as through electronic payment systems and even cryptocurrencies. As for the trading platform, NordFX experts have selected the most popular software in the professional community - MetaTrader (MT4). Moreover, such a platform is available both for desktop solutions (PCs and laptops) and for the most popular mobile operating systems (Android and iOS). The MetaTrader terminal is one of the most functional solutions on the Forex market. It offers a rich toolkit not only for opening positions and tracking quotes, but also for analytical work, using trading robot advisors and even testing strategies. Moreover, MetaTrader is written in an open source language, which allows you to create your own indicators, scripts and algorithmic programs (advisors) that will trade for you in a fully automatic mode. To work successfully on Forex, a trader must be familiar with the following aspects: - Types of market analysis. - Work with analytical tools (graphics, indicators, news). - Creation of one's own trading strategy and system. - Learning the basics of money and risk management. - The psychology of trading. Trading is carried out with real money. But before you start, you can try your hand at a demo account . This is a special training account that allows a trader not only to study the trading terminal without any financial risk, but also to work out their own strategies. You can open a demo account at the brokerage company NordFX. All quotes that come to the terminal on such a training account are real. That is, you will be able to try your hand at real market conditions. Once you have completed your training, you need to top up your trading account and then you can get to work. As noted above, trading strategies are fundamental. They allow the trader to predict future asset fluctuations in the Forex market. Such strategies can be both borrowed and created by the broker'sclient itself, if they have enough knowledge to do so. The most popular among traders are indicator trading tactics, based on indicators of technical analysis. They are easy to find in the MT4 terminal. But you need to carefully study how each indicator works before using it. Today, four main groups of such instruments are distinguished: - Trending. - Oscillators. - Indicators that reflect the volatility and strength of the trend. Working with the MetaTrader trading platform, you can simultaneously use one or more indicators already built into it and add to it your own ones created by you or other traders. Some Forex Trading Recommendations It is not enough to have a good trading strategy for successful trading. It is very important to follow certain rules and recommendations that we give below. Study the asset carefully. Before you start working with a particular currency, you need to carefully study it. It is important to pay attention not only to the chart, but also to the schedule of important economic events and publications. Among them, for example, meetings of Central Banks, business activity indices, data on the labor market, statistics on inflation. Even if you do not plan to engage in news trading in the future, you will need to know the exact time of the news release, since these are periods of sharp jumps in rates and increased volatility in the financial markets. Work systematically. The biggest problem for many novice traders is that they do not know how to work systematically. Even with a rather interesting and profitable strategy behind them, such market participants, under the influence of emotions, often deviate from its main provisions and open trades at random, intuitively. As a result, they lose their money easily and quickly. In trading, discipline is one of the key factors. Traders who do not have it do not succeed. Those who strictly follow their trading system are much more likely to increase their deposit. Controlling emotions. Emotions and psychological state play a very important role in trading. You need to learn to rule out negative thoughts from your work. The mistake of most traders is that, having made one or several unsuccessful trades, they start trading in order to win back. It happens the other way around — under the influence of greed, a person opens one trade after another instead of stopping in time. A professional trader makes decisions based solely on the situation on the chart, their own analysis and trading system. Emotions are completely excluded from their work. If you cannot cope with them, it is better to use the opportunities for automatic or social trading that the broker NordFX provides to its clients - this is the use of robot advisors in MT4 and PAMM accounts, and the automatic copying of trades of experienced traders in the Copy Trading system. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 01-05, 2021 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. The trade wars unleashed by the previous US President Trump have just seemingly subsided, but now we can "congratulate" everyone on the start of a new - currency - war. And it could prove equally exciting and unpredictable. This time, it was the European Central Bank, headed by Christine Lagarde, that declared hostilities. The adversary was, as you might guess, the US Federal Reserve System. We have repeatedly written that the growth of the euro was caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The European currency rose against the dollar by more than 1700 points from March 20, 2020 to January 15, 2021. For the time being, the ECB leadership pretended that the problem lies not in the current level of the EUR/USD rate, but in the rate of its growth. But it turns out now that the current quotes are also of great importance for the EU economy, and that it would not be bad for them to go down. The heads of the Banks of Finland and the Netherlands have started to speak actively about the fact that the ECB is very concerned about the euro exchange rate and should take decisive steps to stimulate inflation, hinting at a further decrease in interest rates. And Janet Yelen will definitely not like it. Recall that the former head of the Federal Reserve, and now the new US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yelen promised in every possible way to stop other countries' attempts to artificially reduce the rates of their currencies. So, we can assume that the challenge has been posed and accepted, and the duel has begun. And right from the start, the EU has been let down... by its main support, Germany. It turns out that inflation in this country in January jumped from -0.7% to + 1.6%, which will certainly affect the growth of the total indicator of the Eurozone. Whether this will entail an accelerated curtailment of the ECB's quantitative stimulus (QE) program remains in question. The market is at a crossroads, which can be clearly seen from the EUR/USD quotes: the pair has been moving in a rather narrow sideways channel 1.2055-1.2185 for the last two and a half weeks. And even the fall of US stock indices on January 27-29 could not push it out of this corridor. As for the end of the week, the pair put the final point at 1.2135; - GBP/USD. Last week, most analysts (65%) refused to share the bullish optimism of technical analysis. The reason is the poor performance of the British economy and the statement of the country's Prime Minister Boris Johnson warning that the third round of the lockdown could last well into the summer. This is forcing investors to not just revise their forecasts for the pound, but also to re-start discussing a scenario with negative Bank of England interest rates. Looking at the chart of the pair, we can state that the bullish momentum has exhausted itself for the time being. Even fresh positive data on the UK labor market, published on January 26, did not help the pound. The pair cannot break above resistance 1.3750 for the second week in a row. Its volatility has also plummeted. If it exceeded 400 points a week at the end of December, the figure has now fallen to 150 points. As for the end of the five-day period, the final chord sounded in the zone of another strong resistance level, at 1.3700; - USD/JPY. The medium-term trend for this pair was laid back at the end of March 2020, when it began to slide smoothly along the descending channel. There have been many discussions among experts, whether the pair will be able to reverse this trend and break through the upper limit of this channel. It was only 30% of analysts who voted for such a development a week ago, but they were the ones who were right. The zone 104.70-105.00 was indicated as the target of the bulls, which was reached by the pair USD/JPY on Friday, January 29. Unlike the euro and the pound, it reacted quite actively to both positive reports on the labor market and the US trade balance. But the main impetus was given by the redistribution of financial flows caused by the fall of the American stock indices S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq. As a result, the pair reached the 10-week high at 104.95, and ended the trading session slightly lower at 104.70; - cryptocurrencies. We were certainly joking, but it seems the forecast of a fortune teller from New York is starting to come true. Last week we talked about Maren Altman, who determines the trends of the BTC/USD pair based on the stars movement. So, she absolutely accurately predicted the beginning of the January correction of bitcoin, since the trajectory of Mercury (the price of BTC) was to be crossed by Saturn (the limiting indicator) on that day. Her latest forecast spoke of "some favorable signals at the end of January." For the past three weeks, the main cryptocurrency has been clinging to support in the $30,000 zone, trying to break even lower and thereby instilling pessimism in many experts and investors. For example, Scott Minerd, the director of investments at Guggenheim Partners, said that the bitcoin rate would not stay above $35 thousand or even above $30 thousand, since there is no institutional demand now that can support the quotes at these levels. However, the end of the month showed that the fortune teller could win in a duel between a fortune teller and an expert, . Having found the local bottom at $29,200 on Wednesday January 27, the pair turned around and reached $38,100 on Friday January 29. But then another sharp reversal followed, and it dropped to the level of $33,500. So, the outcome of the fight at the time of writing the review remains in question. Scott Minerd is certainly right that big professional investors are not digital currency fans at all. And what happened in the second half of 2020 can rather be considered an experiment on their part, which they went to, constantly looking back at the reaction of regulators. But the director of Guggenheim Partners may not have taken into account that, in the absence of institutions, retail investors can also move bitcoin up, as was the case in 2017. Moreover, if then they were young enthusiasts, now the middle generation has joined them. A study conducted by specialists of the Wirex platform together with the company Stellar Development Foundation showed that most of cryptocurrency investors are not at all young millennials, as the case was recently, but people over 45 years old. Investors aged 25 to 45 are only 22%. The active buyback of bitcoin after the drawdown below $30,000 and the absence of panic sell-off showed that many investors still believe in the growth of bitcoin to new heights. The total capitalization of the crypto market once again broke the psychological mark of $1 trillion over the past seven days, rising from $0.933 trillion to $1.08. As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it also began to grow along with the growth of quotations. If at the end of last week the index was at around 40 points, it climbed to 77 on Friday, January 29. This is already close to the overbought zone, but the maximum values are still far away. Recall that the index values were constantly in the zone 95-98 out of 100 possible during the rally in December - the first week of January. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. The currency war referred to in the first part of the review is not a matter of one week and not one month, it can stretch for years. The US economy “shrank” by 3.5% in 2020. And this is not only the first negative indicator since 2009, but also the largest drop since the end of World War II. However, investors expect a low interest rate and huge cash injections into the US economy ($900 billion from Donald Trump and $1,900 billion from Joe Biden), together with successful vaccination against COVID-19, will help it return to growth in 2021. Although, this will happen gradually, incrementally. In contrast to the United States, support for the Eurozone economy was much more modest - €750 billion, therefore, the Eurozone GDP growth will be more moderate (according to forecasts + 1.5%). And the rate of vaccination is lower here than overseas. If we add to this the efforts of the ECB to weaken the common European currency, we can expect that the EUR/USD pair will be under certain pressure. But, as already mentioned, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yelen will make every effort to prevent this from happening. After two and a half weeks of sideways movement of the EUR/USD pair in the channel 1.2055-1.2185, technical indicators are in confusion, giving no clear signals in either direction. As for the experts, most of them (65%) expect that in February, despite all, the dollar will continue to lose its positions and the pair will return to the 1.2200-1.2300 zone. The target is the January high of 1.2350, the nearest resistance is 1.2185. The nearest support is 1.2055, the main goal of the bears is the zone 1.1800-1.1900. As for important economic events, there will be a lot of them in the coming week. Data on business activity and the labor market in the US will be published on Monday February 01 and Wednesday February 03. We will find out preliminary data on GDP On Tuesday February 02, and on the Eurozone consumer market on the next day. Finally, on February 05, on the first Friday of the month, data on the number of new jobs created in the United States outside the agricultural sector (NFP) will traditionally be released. This indicator is predicted to show an increase from -140K to +85K, which may lead to a short-term strengthening of the dollar, although this is often taken into account in advance by the market; - GBP/USD. We will be waiting for a meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday February 04, where questions will be resolved about the planned volume of asset purchases under the programme to support the economy, as well as the interest rate reduction. Will Britain's regulator surprise investors? According to our forecasts, it is unlikely. It is likely that the volume of purchases of bonds on the open market will remain the same - ? 895 billion, and the rate will remain at 0.1%. Therefore, the market will wait for any signals, explicit or implicit, from the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey, whose speeches are scheduled for February 04 and 05. As for analysts, 70% of them believe that the GBP/USD pair will still manage to break through the resistance at 1.3750 and rise to the height of 1.3800 for at least a short time. Graphical analysis and 85% of oscillators on D1, as well as 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1 agree with this. At the same time, 60% of experts, along with graphical analysis, believe that after a dash to the north, the pair will return to the zone 1.3615-1.3700. The next support level is around 1.3500; - USD/JPY. Most experts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair's movement to the south will continue. However, now it has changed echelon, and the upper border of the medium-term descending channel will now become a support line for it. The main resistance level is 105.00, support is at 104.00, 103.55 and 103.00 levels. The remaining 30% of analysts expect that the pair will be able to rise even higher and reach the zone of 105.70-106.10. Among the trend indicators, 100% look up at ?4 and 85% at D1. As for the oscillators, 75% on H4 and 60% on D1 are colored green, the rest give signals that the pair is overbought; - cryptocurrencies. According to a number of experts, the January drawdown is now fully redeemed, and the BTC/USD pair is ready to grow to $50,000. Those who wanted to take profits and transfer their crypto assets to fiat have already done so. And now the bulls are regaining strength, forming another upward momentum. Central bank interest rates, which are close to zero, the huge scale of fiscal stimulus, putting pressure on the dollar in the first place, and stock market fluctuations, drawing attention to Bitcoin as a hedge asset, can still act as arguments for the rally to continue. It is likely that 2021 will be the scene of a struggle between the crypto market and regulators. And if we set aside the optimism of crypto fans, it remains questionable whether digital assets can seriously strengthen their positions. So, for example, Bank of Singapore, which is one of the largest Asian financial organizations, called bitcoin a promising instrument that can not only compete with gold, but also shift it from the first place on investments security. At the same time, the bank's experts believe that "we are unlikely to see widespread adoption of bitcoin soon, since regulators simply will not allow users to independently decide how transactions with millions or even billions of dollars will be performed." Governments are making it increasingly clear that they will not allow attacks on their main instrument of power - national currencies. As for the second most important cryptocurrency, the market is waiting for the launch of futures on Ethereum. It is this factor that allowed the ETH/USD pair to hold its positions even in the days of January, when bitcoin sought to break through support in the $30,000 zone. Recall that one of the factors that allowed bitcoin to surpass the $20,000 mark at the end of 2017 was the launch of futures for this cryptocurrency by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). And now, on February 8, 2021, the same exchange is awaiting regulatory approval of the application for listing Ethereum futures, which may lead to a further increase in its quotations. And in conclusion, another funny life hack from the life of cryptocurrencies. Last time we talked about an American fortune teller who predicts bitcoin prices by observing the movement of the planets. Now we are talking about another resident of the United States, Simon Berne, who placed a mining farm in the trunk of his BMW i8 sports car. The farm receives energy from the car battery, to which it is connected using a DC inverter. The battery power of the BMW i8 is 3500W, while the mining plant only consumes 1500W. According to Berne, this is a great way for him to make money even while traveling. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 CryptoNews - Bitcoin price could drop again ahead of Chinese New Year. According to a number of experts, this time the price of the main coin will be affected by the actions of small investors who will begin to transfer crypto assets to fiat to buy New Year's gifts. Currently, it is in China that the bulk of the owners of bitcoin wallets with savings of up to 10 thousand dollars are concentrated. “Even if institutional investors do not react to the possible strengthening of the dollar and stock markets, small investors will definitely start withdrawing funds before the holidays. The New Year is usually celebrated very lavishly in China. In addition, the charts for the past few years show that exactly on the eve of the holidays, the capitalization of bitcoin is greatly decreasing, the specialists of the investment company Stack Funds explain the situation. - According to Cryptofeed.news, a bug was found in Apple devices, due to which attackers can gain access to cryptocurrency wallets. Pete Kim, chief engineer of the Coinbase trading platform, noted that the bug represents the ability to activate remote access mode from other devices. This means that criminals who can enable this option will be able to get to banking apps or wallets. “So far there is no evidence that the bug could have been used to steal digital assets, but it’s better just not to bring it up,” explained Kim. Apple has not yet commented on this software flaw. - The first cryptocurrency is on the cusp of widespread adoption by the traditional market. This was stated by the founder of Tesla and SpaceX Elon Musk during a conversation on the Clubhouse media platform. According to him, many friends urged him to buy bitcoin. And today he has to admit that he was "late to appear at the party." “I'm a bitcoin supporter. I believe the financial world is close to its wide acceptance. But I have no opinion about other cryptocurrencies, "- Forbes quotes the words of the billionaire. Elon Musk also promised that he would be more careful with his comments because of the great impact they have on the market. Recall that he has recently changed his Twitter profile description to "#bitcoin" with the cryptocurrency logo, after which the coin's price jumped sharply, exceeding $37,000. - On February 2, MicroStrategy, an analytical software company, bought an additional 295 BTC for a total of $10 million. The average purchase price was $33,808. In total, the company acquired 71,079 BTC starting from August 2020, spending $1.145 billion on it. At the time of writing, the total value of bitcoins in MicroStrategy's reserves is $ 2.55 billion, that is, its return on investment (ROI) in six months was about 120%. - The US authorities have accused a California resident of running an illegal cryptocurrency exchange and money laundering. Hugo Mejia, 49, from Ontario reportedly launched his service in May 2018. He advertised the platform on the Internet and met with clients in person in a cafe and corresponded with them using encrypted messages. During this period, Mejia's clients exchanged more than $13m worth of assets with his help. From May 2019 to March 2020, the manager communicated several times with a front buyer who informed him he was an Australian drug dealer. In total, the front client conducted five transactions worth more than $250,000, after which Mejia was arrested. He will appear in the U.S. District Court in March and faces up to 25 years in prison. - The number of unique active BTC addresses reached 22.3 million in January amid growth in network activity and the rate of the first cryptocurrency, which rose to $42,000 on January 8. “This is the highest rate in the history of bitcoin to date,” say analysts at Glassnode. The January surge in activity surpasses the previous record of 21 million active addresses in December 2017, their number has not fallen below 10 million per month since then. - Specialists of the analytical platform CryptoQuant noted in recent days the movement of large volumes of bitcoins. 15,200 BTC was withdrawn from the Coinbase exchange alone at a cost of about $500 million. Coins were withdrawn in batches from 1,100 BTC to 4,400 BTC, which is a rare occurrence. Usually, crypto exchanges do not split transfers in this way when moving coins between their own wallets, as this leads to an increase in overhead costs. According to the founder of CryptoQuant, Ki Yong Joo, bitcoins went to custodian wallets, on which only incoming transactions were noticed. “These are probably over-the-counter deals of institutional investors. And I consider this to be the strongest bullish signal,” he wrote. - Visa CEO Alfred Kelly spoke about plans for cryptocurrency payments during a teleconference on the company's financial activities. He noted that the company is ready to make such payments more secure. Visa plans to work with wallets and exchanges so that users can not only buy crypto assets, but also cash them in and make purchases in fiat currency without prior conversions. Visa currently distinguishes between two classes of cryptoassets: assets like bitcoin - digital gold, and assets backed by fiat currencies, including stablecoins and central bank digital currencies. “It goes without saying that if a particular digital currency becomes a recognized means of exchange, there is no reason why we cannot add it to our network, which already supports over 160 currencies today,” concluded Kelly. - According to a report from research firm Binance Research, bitcoin remains the leading cryptocurrency as 65% of users have it in their investment portfolio. This figure was obtained by a survey of 61,000 users from 178 countries. The document, called the 2021 Global Cryptocurrency User Index, says that 52% of users consider cryptocurrency to be a source of current income, while the rest own digital assets, considering them part of a long-term investment strategy. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 January 2021 Results: NordFX's Most Successful Traders Helped by Bitcoin and Gold NordFX brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in the first month of 2021. The maximum profit in January was received by a client from Vietnam, account No.1416xxx, whose profit amounted to 83.598 USD. This solid result was achieved mainly in gold (XAU/USD) and bitcoin (BTC/USD) trades. The second place in the rating of the most successful traders of the month is taken by a client from China, account No.1416xxx. Their profit was 40.902 USD, and was received on transactions with the same gold and bitcoin, as well as with a currency that is quite exotic for Chinese traders, the South African rand (USD/ZAR). The third place on the January podium went to the representative of India (account No. 1518xxx) whose result of 40.217 USD was achieved mainly due to transactions with two cryptocurrency pairs, BTC/USD and ETH/USD. It should be noted that this trader occupied the third place in the previous, December TOP-3 as well, and their total profit for two months has amounted to almost 80 thousand USD. As for traders focusing exclusively on Forex currency pairs, here the leader was a resident of Sri Lanka (account number 1528xxx), who earned 33.684 USD on transactions with the British pound - GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD and GBP/USD. The passive investment services: - in CopyTrading in January the largest increase of 382% was shown by the sab aq4x signal, however, its maximum drawdown was more than impressive, 74.15%. But KennyFXPRO demonstrates a small, but stable growth with a very moderate drawdown (growth in January 34.57% with a maximum drawdown of 12.30%). We can also note another non-aggressive signal - NordFX Pro (increase 24.08%, drawdown 11.31%); - in the PAMM service, the manager Nacarino achieved the maximum profit for the month (increase 82.82%, drawdown 77.42%). The minimum drawdown of only 1% with a gain of 12.53% was shown by a trader with the nickname COPY CAT 01. Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows: - the largest amount of commission, USD 9.461, was accrued in January to a partner from China, account No. 1336xxx; - next is also a partner from China, account number 1175xxx, who received 6.124 USD; - and, finally, a partner from Sri Lanka, account No. 1483xxx, who received 6.123 USD as a reward, closes the top three. Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 08 - 12, 2021 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. The dollar has been growing throughout the week, fueled by optimism about the imminent recovery of the US economy. The incidence of coronavirus is down sharply: in just three weeks since the peak, the 7-day moving average has dropped by almost 50%. And a successful vaccination, complete with a new economic aid package, can generally lead to an economic boom in the country. And that is where the confusion begins, which has puzzled many economists. With the outbreak of the pandemic at the end of last February, an inverse correlation has clearly emerged between the dollar and stock indices. After an initial sharp collapse, thanks to fiscal incentives (QE), lower interest rates and pumping the US economy with cheap money, stock indices, S&P500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, went up, and the DXY dollar index went down. And here came 2021, and everything turned upside down. Against the backdrop of good economic data and expectations of a new injection of financial "vaccine" for almost $2 trillion, the growth of risk sentiment and stock indices continued. But in parallel, the yield of long-term US Treasury bonds and the dollar grew. “But it shouldn't be that way,” many experts exclaim. A soft monetary policy and pumping liquidity into the market should lead to a weakening of the currency, but not vice versa. Or maybe it's not the dollar's strength at all, but the weakness of its competitors? First of all, the euro? Starting on Monday at 1.2135, the EUR/USD pair groped the local bottom at 1.1950 on the morning of Friday 05 February, breaking through 1.2000 support for the first time in 10 weeks. After that, the correlation between the stock market and the dollar once again changed its sign, from plus to minus this time: the S&P500 continued to grow, while the DXY began to fall. As a result, the EUR/USD pair went up again and finished the five-day period at 1.2050; - GBP/USD. We predicted that at its meeting on Thursday 04 February, the Bank of England would leave both the volume of bond purchases of ?895bn and the interest rate at 0.1% unchanged. And so it happened, no changes in monetary policy took place. But at the same time, in just a couple of hours the pound has strengthened sharply against the dollar, jumping up 135 points, from 1.3565 to 1.3700. The whole point was not in the results of the meeting of the Bank, but in market expectations. The Bank's committee unanimously decided to leave key parameters of its policy unchanged. Some investors expected that a split in the ranks of the Committee would happen, and that a number of its members would support the introduction of negative rates. The split did not occur, the result of the vote was 9:0. A negative rate, no doubt, would have led to a collapse of the pound, but the situation was saved by the optimism of officials regarding the growth of the UK economy. In their opinion, thanks to vaccination, the country's GDP will reach pre-COVID indicators during the current year, and the consumer price index will rise to 2% at the beginning of 2022. The Bank of England's unanimous decision to abandon negative rates for the near future should encourage capital inflows into the country. And this was clearly demonstrated by the GBP/USD pair, which continued its growth on Friday February 05, and ended the weekly session at 1.3735; - USD/JPY. The movement of this pair in most cases depends on what is happening not in Japan, but in the United States, on where the DXY dollar index, stock indices, as well as the yield of American state bonds are moving. This happened last week as well. Back on January 27, the pair broke through the upper border of the medium-term descending channel, along which it had been descending since the end of last March and went up sharply. And although the overwhelming majority of oscillators and trend indicators on both ?4 and D1 indicated an uptrend, only 30% of experts voted for further growth among analysts. But it was their forecast that turned out to be absolutely accurate: at the high on Friday, February 05, the pair reached a height of 105.75, after which a correction followed and then a finish at 105.35; - cryptocurrencies. We noted in our last review that the bulls are gaining strength again, forming another upward momentum in bitcoin. It also said that the main problem of the crypto market in 2021 will be regulators, whose goal is to take this segment under their maximum control. Starting from the second half of 2020. institutional investors have become the main drivers of growth. In addition to specialized funds like Grayscale Investments and technology companies such as MicroStrategy, Harvard, Yale and Michigan universities have begun to acquire cryptocurrencies, using their endowment funds for this. Even conservative giants such as US government pension funds like CalPERS have been seen buying digital assets. However, due to regulatory issues, these institutions are acting very cautiously, investing in bitcoin, for now, very small amounts in their scale. Recall that as soon as the BTC/USD pair renewed its all-time high on January 8, rising above $42,000, and the crypto market capitalization exceeded $1 trillion, the head of the European regulator Christine Lagarde immediately stated that this was a very speculative asset, which is used to conduct a rather "strange business" and money laundering activities. The new US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also joined her from across the ocean, according to her, "cryptocurrencies are of particular concern, and many of them are used to finance illegal activities." Both Lagarde and Yelen indicated that there is a need for serious regulation of this market. However, both kept silent about the main reason for such concern. Although, it is clear that governments are most concerned about the loss of their control over monetary resources. Be that as it may, but after the statements of the President of the ECB and the US Treasury Secretary, the price of bitcoin fell below $30,000. However, by the end of January, the market came to its senses, and the main coin rate went up again. On Friday evening, February 05, the BTC/USD pair is trading in the $38,000 zone, and the total capitalization of the crypto market hits highs, rising to the level of $1.16 trillion. As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it reached 81, and although it is in the overbought zone, it is still far from the maximum values. According to Glassnode specialists, the number of unique active BTC addresses reached 22.3 million in January. “This is the highest rate in the history of bitcoin to date,” analysts say. The January surge in activity beats the previous record of 21 million active addresses in December 2017. BTC miners also showed indicators close to the record ones. Despite a 30% drop in the price of bitcoin, January was a very good month for this "strange business". Mining the main cryptocurrency brought them $1.1 billion (the maximum of $1.2 billion was recorded in December 2017). The production of Ethereum showed a record result of $0.83 billion, exceeding the figure of December 2020 by 120%. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. So far, the situation seems to be still in favor of the dollar. In anticipation of the explosive growth of the US economy, investors are ready to turn a blind eye to another increase in the country's national debt, which will follow the next package of economic stimuli. The yields on long-term treasuries are growing, and the spread between US and European bonds is growing, strengthening the dollar, and putting pressure on the European currency. Thus, the yield of 10-year American state bonds has already reached about 1.15%, and the growth potential has not yet been exhausted. Here you can also recall the statements of Christine Lagarde that the ECB is not at all against the weakening of the euro. The above has led to the fact that 70% of experts, supported by 85% of oscillators, 70% of trend indicators and graphical analysis on D1, agreed that the dollar will continue to grow in the coming days, and the EUR/USD pair to fall. Support levels are 1.1950, 1.1885, 1.1800 and 1.1750. However, the situation is changing with the transition from weekly to monthly forecast and here it is already 60% of experts together with graphical analysis who are waiting for the pair to return to the zone 1.2200-1.2300. The target is the January high of 1.2350, the nearest resistance is 1.2175. As for important economic events in the coming week, we can note data on consumer markets in Germany and the United States, which will be released on Wednesday February 10; - GBP/USD. Will the market still be able to maintain its bullish optimism about the British currency for some time? 65% of analysts believe that at least briefly the pair will still succeed, breaking through the resistance of 1.3750, to rise to the height of 1.3800, and possibly 25-50 points higher. Graphical analysis, 85% of oscillators as well as 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1 agree with this. However, 15% of oscillators are already giving clear signals about the pair being overbought. The remaining 35% of experts consider the 1.3700-1.3750 zone as an insurmountable obstacle, according to them, having broken through the support at 1.3700, the pair will first go down 100 points and then reach the 1.3485-1.3500 zone. Among the events to which attention should be paid, of interest are the speech of the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey on Wednesday, February 10, and the publication of GDP data for the IV quarter of 2020 on Friday, February 12; - USD/JPY. Most experts (70%) supported by graphical analysis on D1, 75% of oscillators and 80% of trend indicators, expect the pair to continue to grow at least up to 106.00-106.25 zone. The next goal is 107.00. The nearest resistance is 105.75. The remaining 30% of analysts believe that the pair will return to the level of 104.00, and graphical analysis on H4 predicts an even greater drop, to the low of January 21, 103.30. Supports are at 104.75, 104.00 and 103.50 levels. - cryptocurrencies. What is good, and what is bad. The support of cryptocurrencies from large institutional investors is, of course, good. It can provide further growth for bitcoin. However, the fact that the crypto market now largely depends on the sentiments of this rather small group, and that, in turn, on the sentiments of government officials, is bad, and can lead to a collapse of the quotes. A clear example is the January drop in the BTC/USD pair by 30%. However, government actions can not only put pressure on the crypto market, but also push it up. Thus, US President Joe Biden has confirmed his readiness for a new stimulus package for almost $2 trillion. And this is good, since with an almost 100% probability, some of these funds will flow to the digital asset market. But, for example, is Chinese New Year good or bad? It is definitely good for people, a fun holiday, gifts, fireworks... But, according to a number of experts, on the eve of this joyful event, the value of bitcoin may fall again. Moreover, in this case, the price of the main coin is threatened not by the central banks, but small investors, who will begin to transfer their crypto assets to fiat for the purchase of New Year's gifts. Currently, it is in China that the bulk of the owners of bitcoin wallets with savings of up to 10 thousand dollars are concentrated. And, according to the specialists of the investment company Stack Funds, “since it is customary to celebrate the New Year in China very splendidly, small investors will definitely begin to withdraw funds before the holidays. In addition, - they explain, “charts over the past few years show that it is in the run-up to the holidays that the capitalization of bitcoin is greatly reduced.” We do not have long to wait for either a confirmation or a refutation of this prediction: the New Year in China is this Friday, February 12, and the holidays will last from February 11 to 17. Now about Ethereum. This leading altcoin continues to deliver impressive results. It has increased in price by 130% since the beginning of the year, and its increase was 448% in 2020. The main impact on such dynamics is the expectation of the launch of futures on it on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which is scheduled for Monday, February 8. The forecasts for this event are mixed. Optimists (and they are the majority) recall that the launch of bitcoin futures on the CME allowed this cryptocurrency to break the $20,000 mark at the end of 2017. Pessimists say that it was this event that marked the beginning of the crypto winter of 2018. So, the question of whether futures is good or bad remains open. In December 2020, when the BTC/USD pair reached its previous high of $20,000 and ETH/USD was still very far from its similar mark, we noted a significant potential for the Ethereum growth. Now a similar situation is observed with another token, Litecoin, which we have not thought about for a long time. This coin appeared in October 2011, becoming an early fork of bitcoin, from a technical point of view is almost identical to it. Litecoin's all-time high of $370 was recorded on December 19, 2017. Then crypto winter came and, a year later, the price of the coin dropped to $20, having lost almost 95% of its value. At the moment, the quotes of the LTC/USD pair are at the level of $155, which is more than twice below its historical maximum, which can lead to its growth. Moreover, Litecoin even surpasses the main cryptocurrency in some important parameters. So, for example, the transaction speed with it is four times higher than with bitcoin. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 CryptoNews - Forbes compiled a list of the wealthiest representatives of business in the field of cryptocurrency, following the results of 2020. It is headed by the CEO of the Coinbase crypto-exchange Brian Armstrong with $6.5 billion, followed by the head of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange Sam Bankman-Freed with $4.5 billion and the co-founder of Ripple Chris Larsen - $2.9 billion. The ranking also includes: the head of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor - $ 2 billion, CEO of the Binance exchange Changpeng "CZ" Zhao - $1.9 billion, the founders of the Gemini exchange, the Winklevoss brothers - $1.6 billion each, founder of the venture capital company Digital Currency Group Barry Silbert - $1.5 billion , co-founder and former CTO of Ripple Jed McCaleb - $1.4 billion, venture capitalist Tim Draper - $1.1 billion and co-founder of blockchain startup Bloq Matthew Roszak - $1 billion. When preparing the rating, the Forbes magazine took into account not only the value of the digital assets of the persons involved, but also their traditional assets, including the shares of various companies. - According to Reuters, the German prosecutor's office is unable to access a wallet with more than 1,700 bitcoins with a total value of about $75 million. The account holder, who was found to be a fraud, refuses to testify against himself and provide access keys. Currently, law enforcement officers are looking for ways to "get close" to these assets through exchanges and wallet operators in order to return them to the victims of the criminal. The fraudster was sentenced to two years in prison for installing phishing software on third-party computers, with which he deducted funds from the victims' accounts and transferred them to his own wallet. The prosecutor explained that the offender was offered mitigation of punishment if he provided data on the whereabouts of the coins, but he refused. The size of the criminal's assets has significantly increased against the background of the latest bitcoin rally, and it is possible that he is going to use them after his release. - American children's charity Songs of Love created Superhero Billy Bitcoin to boost interest in their work. Crypto donations to such non-profit organizations in the United States are tax-free. “Donating in a cryptocurrency like bitcoin is even more efficient than cash. You don't have to pay capital gains tax and can deduct that amount from your taxes,” said Songs of Love. The fund accepts donations in 22 digital assets, and the Superhero Billy Bitcoin is dedicated to supporting children with serious illnesses. - The price of bitcoin could rise to $100,000 as early as the end of 2021 if other companies follow Tesla's lead, the founder of cryptobank Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz said in an interview to Bloomberg . Elon Musk's company announced the investment of $1.5 billion in Bitcoin on Monday, February 8. Tesla admitted that in the future they will integrate the first cryptocurrency as a means of payment for their products. Novogratz called Elon Musk a genius in his decision to listen to people and evaluate the interests of young people. According to the billionaire, other companies will invest in the first cryptocurrency to hedge inflation risks. “You'll see that every company in America will soon start doing the same,” stated Mike Novogratz. - Due to the shortage of discrete graphics cards in the market, gaming laptops have become popular among Chinese Ethereum miners. As calculated by the Techarp portal, the payback period for such a computer costing from $1000 is approximately three and a half months. One laptop with a RTX 3060 video card is able to get 0.00053 ETH ($0.92 at the moment) within two hours. That is, the mining will amount to 2.3 ETH (over $4000) for the year, and a farm of 20 laptops at current prices and taking into account the cost of electricity in China will bring more than $76,800 in profit. - North Korea has been able to upgrade its nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles by using funds stolen in cyberattacks, to finance. According to the Associated Press citing UN experts, these attacks mainly targeted financial institutions and cryptocurrency platforms, and the total amount of the digital assets stolen in the period from 2019 to November 2020 is more than $316 million. Experts say North Korea continues to launder cryptocurrencies stolen by its hackers mostly through Chinese over-the-counter platforms. - The authorities arrested a 37-year-old Wisconsin resident on charges of attempting to arrange a bespoke homicide. This is stated in the message of the US Department of Justice. The woman found the killer on the darknet, offering to pay for his "work" in cryptocurrency, and provided him with a phone number, place of work and a description of the alleged victim. Journalists of one of the media learned about the upcoming crime while working on material about transactions in the darknet. They found evidence of a Bitcoin transaction, as well as a screenshot of a wallet with $5,633 in cryptocurrency, after which the reporters contacted the law enforcement. Now the alleged customer faces up to 10 years in prison. - One of Mexico's richest people (the fortune of $11.7 billion) and founder of Grupo Salinas group of companies Ricardo Salinas Pliego added a Bitcoin hashtag to his Twitter account description. Recall that the founder of Tesla and SpaceX Elon Musk did the same in January, after which the asset rose to $38,000. Earlier Pliego admitted in a Cointelegraph commentary that he first bought digital gold in 2013. He sold the asset at $17,000 during a bull rally in 2017 and called the bitcoin “the best investment of all time.” - Specialists of financial and investment company Guggenheim Partners said that the value of bitcoin could reach $600,000. According to the company's investment director, Scott Minerd, everything will depend on the number of coins in the public domain. “Cryptocurrency can rise to very high values. It is possible that we are talking about 400 or even $600,000 per coin. We have been studying the asset for almost ten years, so we understand how it will behave. Bitcoin used to be unjustified for institutional investors, but now everything has changed,” Minerd said. According to the specialist, the concern is caused by the rapid growth of the asset in the past few weeks. It is possible that we are talking about speculation, in which institutional investors capable of large investments to manage the value of the coin are involved. At present, bitcoin is in a difficult situation, as the departure of large investors will lead to a return of the negative trend. According to Minerd, such a development is unlikely, but it should definitely be taken into account. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 15 - 19, 2021 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. It often happens that monthly forecasts come true faster than weekly ones. That was what happened this time as well. Recall that only 30% of experts expected the EUR/USD pair to grow in the weekly perspective. In the transition to the monthly forecast, those were in majority already, 60%. We started talking about the paradoxes of the relationship between stock indices and the dollar seven days ago. With the outbreak of the pandemic at the end of last February, an inverse correlation was clearly visible between them: thanks to fiscal stimulus (QE), lower interest rates and pumping the US economy with cheap money, the S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq stock indices went up, and the DXY dollar index - way down. And that was logical. And here came 2021, and everything turned upside down. Against the backdrop of good economic data and expectations of a new injection of financial "vaccine" for almost $2 trillion, the growth of risk sentiment and stock indices continued. But in parallel, the yield of long-term US Treasury bonds and the dollar grew. But the surprises with overturns did not end there. Based on the same fiscal incentives and rapid vaccination in the United States, Wall Street Journal experts are raising their forecasts for US GDP for 2021 from 4.3% to 4.9%. In Europe, the opposite is true: there are a lot of delays with vaccination, the EU countries, one after another, are tightening anti-covid measures once again, there is no end in sight to lockdowns. As a result, the European Commission lowers its forecast for the Eurozone economy to 3.9%. But at the same time, the euro is growing, and the American currency is falling. According to a number of experts, it's all about the long-term policy of the US Fed, which is not going to wind down the QE program until the end of 2021 and will not raise interest rates on the dollar earlier than 2023. This should lead to the recovery of not only the American but also the global economy, including the EU, making the euro a reasonably attractive currency for some, primarily Chinese, investors. China's interests in Europe are great, and appetites are constantly growing, which supports the demand for a pan-European currency. As a result, having started at 1.2050, the EUR/USD pair rose by 100 pips and reached a weekly high at 1.2150 on Thursday, February 11. This was followed by a correction and a finish at 1.2120; - GBP/USD. The released macro statistics looks quite contradictory. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, investment cuts and Brexit problems, UK GDP contracted 9.9% which is a record drop in more than 300 years. At the same time, monthly and quarterly GDP were better than expectations. GDP growth in Q4 2020 amounted to +1%. Industrial production figures were lower than forecasted, but the trade balance report pleased investors. Solid monetary policy of the Bank of England, positive interest rate, and the first in Europe and third in the world (after Israel and the UAE) in terms of vaccination rates also played on the side of the pound. At the time of writing this review, 20.67% of the country's population was already vaccinated (the figure in the USA is 14.02%). Recall that the majority of analysts (65%) also sided with the British currency. The main forecast assumed that the pair would succeed, having broken through the resistance at 1.3750, to rise to the height of 1.3800, and possibly 25-50 points higher. And so it all happened: the high of the week was fixed at 1.3865, and the last chord of the GBP/USD pair set at 1.3850. - USD/JPY. The movement of this pair in most cases depends on what is happening not in Japan, but in the United States, on where stock indices, as well as the yield of American state bonds and the DXY dollar index are moving. This happened last week as well. DXY climbed to 91.21, USD/JPY grew to 105.66 on February 8. On February 10, the dollar index dropped to 90.26, followed by a bottom at 104.40. On February 12, we see an increase in the DXY to 90.71 and an increase in USD/JPY to 105.17, then a slight drop: in the index to 90.39, in the pair to 104.95. So, if anyone wants to try the DXY as a leading indicator for this pair, they can try it; - cryptocurrencies. At the end of 2020, Forbes compiled a list of the wealthiest representatives of the cryptocurrency business with capitals of over $1 billion. The top three included Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong with $6.5 billion, FTX head Sam Bankman-Fried with $4.5 billion and Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen with $2.9 billion. In total, Forbes counted 11 billionaires, although, given the rise in the price of digital assets in January-February, there may have already been more of them. Suffice it to say that the total cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 87% in less than a month and a half in 2021, from $776 billion to $1,452 billion. The past week was one of the most successful this year. The rally began with the news that Tesla bought $1.5 billion of bitcoins. At the same time, its head, Elon Musk, said that he plans to sell cars of this brand for cryptocurrency in the near future. Bitcoin went up in price by 23% on this news, on February 8. But this did not end there. Global payments giant MasterCard has announced that it plans to provide merchants with the ability to receive payments in cryptocurrency starting later this year. As a result, bitcoin once again renewed all-time highs, reaching $48,930 in the afternoon of Friday, February 12. The capitalization of BTC has risen to $885 billion at the moment and exceeded the volume of the money supply of such a large country as Russia, for the first time. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has reached 92 (it was 81 a week ago) and is in the overbought zone. At the same time, the BTC Dominance Index has decreased from 70.36% to 61.06% since the year started. But, according to many experts, this does not indicate a deterioration in investor attitudes towards bitcoin, but an improvement in their attitude towards altcoins. So, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launched trading in Ethereum futures on Monday, February 08. The turnover reached $30 million on the very first day, and the open interest - $ 20 million, which indicates the stable interest of investors in this token. The capitalization of ETH has increased by 32% since the year started and amounts to more than $203 billion as of February 12. Another top coin that we have already paid attention to in the previous review is Litecoin. Over the past three months, aggregate open interest in LTC futures has grown by 285% to $584 million. And, although the share of Litecoin in the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is quite small (8th place with 0.85%), it now occupies an honorable 3rd place among derivatives after bitcoin and Ethereum. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. Throughout the coming week, China is celebrating the New Year, which will cause a significant portion of trade volumes to leave the global markets. However, this does not at all promise a calm or a decrease in volatility. Although right now, investors are at a crossroads. US stock indices, after a powerful upward leap in January, have gradually moved to consolidation and look overbought. No surprises are expected from the Fed any time soon, and the report of the Open Market Committee meeting on Thursday February 18 is likely to be boring enough. On the same day, the report on the ECB meeting on monetary policy will be released, but it will be highly likely filled mostly with general streamlined phrases. Therefore, the main drivers for the EUR/USD pair will again be news about the successes in the fight against the Covid-19 pandemic on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. As for experts, 60% of them, together with graphical analysis for H4 and D1, expect the pair to decline, at least, to support 1.2050. In case of a breakout, the next target for the bears will be the February 05 low at 1.1950. The nearest support is in the 1.2100 zone. 40% of analysts adhere to the opposite scenario. However, when moving from weekly to monthly forecast, the number of bulls' supporters increases to 60%. 85% of trend indicators on H4 and D1 are also painted green. But the readings of the oscillators on both timeframes cannot be analyzed: there is complete chaos of red, green and neutral gray colors there. The nearest resistance level is 1.2150. The bulls' targets are first a return of the pair to the 1.2200-1.2300 zone, and then the January high at 1.2350. As for the economic calendar of the week, in addition to the already mentioned meetings of the Fed and the ECB, we are waiting for: on Tuesday, February 16 - data on GDP of the Eurozone, on Wednesday, February 17 - data on retail sales in the United States (a noticeable increase from -0.7% to + 0.7% is expected), and at the end of the working week, on Friday, February 19, statistics on business activity of Markit in Germany and the EU will be published (here, although not so noticeable, but still growth is predicted); - GBP/USD. A quarterly GDP growth of 1% means that the country has every chance of getting out of the recession. The high rates of vaccination will also contribute to this (although there are concerns about new strains of coronavirus). Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to unveil a plan to exit the quarantine towards the end of the month, or rather February 22, which should clarify the prospects for the recovery of the UK economy. In the meantime, analysts' votes have been distributed as follows: the pound has reached 34-month highs, and 45% of experts believe that it would be time for it to stop and play back a little down. 20% vote for the continued growth of the pair, while the remaining 35% take a neutral position. 100% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators on H4 and D1, together with graphical analysis on H4, point north, targets are 1.3900 and 1.3950. The remaining 25% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. As for the graphical analysis on D1, it shows a rebound from the resistance of 1.3865 and the decline first to support in the zone 1.3700, then 1.3630 and 1.3575. As for economic statistics, one should pay attention to data on the UK consumer market, which will be released on Wednesday February 17, and business activity in the service sector on Friday February 19; - USD/JPY. Graphical analysis on D1 predicts the movement of the pair in the channel along the Pivot Point 104.85 during the month. Moreover, it will first rise to the upper border of the channel at 105.75, and then descend to its lower border at 104.40. On H4, the oscillation amplitude is naturally less, from 104.85 to 105.30. Apart from the green colored 75% of the trend indicators on D1, the readings of the other indicators and oscillators look quite confusing. It is also difficult to draw any conclusions from the opinions of experts, who are divided almost equally: 40% for the growth of the pair, 30% for its fall and the same amount for the sideways movement. The GDP data for the IV quarter of 2020, which the Japanese Cabinet of Ministers will publish on Monday February 15, may somehow influence the formation of the short-term trend of the USD/JPY pair, especially if this indicator differs greatly from the forecasted +2.3%; - cryptocurrencies. We wrote about bitcoin's readiness to storm the $50,000 high two weeks ago. And its rise to $48,930 on February 12 is a clear confirmation of the correctness of this forecast, which is supported by 80% of experts in a monthly perspective. The growth of bitcoin and other top coins pulls up the entire crypto market. Its members look forward to following the example of Tesla and MasterCard and other S& P500 companies listed on the NYSE to announce their readiness to work with digital assets. As, for example, did the Bank of New York Mellon, which said it would allow digital currencies to pass through the same financial network that it uses for traditional financial assets. The fact that every company in America will soon follow the example of Tesla, was mentioned by the founder of the crypto bank Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz in an interview with Bloomberg. According to the billionaire, this will help bitcoin grow to $100,000 by the end of this year. In the longer term, the BTC/USD pair may rise even to $600,000. At least, this is the opinion of specialists of the financial and investment company Guggenheim Partners. According to the company's investment director, Scott Minerd, everything will depend on the number of coins in the public domain. “Cryptocurrency can rise to very high values. It is possible that we are talking about 400 or even $600,000 per coin... Bitcoin used to be unjustified for institutional investors, but now everything has changed,” Minerd said. According to the specialist, the concern is caused by the rapid growth of the asset in the past few weeks. It is possible that we are talking about speculation in which institutional investors are involved, capable to manage the value of the coin with the help of large investments. So far, bitcoin is in a difficult situation, as the departure of large depositors will lead to a return of the negative trend. This development of events is unlikely, says the director of Guggenheim Partners, but it should definitely be taken into account. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 CryptoNews - Kiss bassist Gene Simmons invested a seven-figure sum in bitcoin. According to him, he bought the cryptocurrency several months ago at a time when it was almost twice as cheap as it is now. Simmons did not name the exact amount of the investment but noted that he had already managed to seriously increase his capital. “Many people wonder if I believe in a further growth in the value of bitcoin. Of course, I do. Otherwise, I would not have spent money on a dubious asset. The future has already arrived, and new tools for earning and storing savings are appearing in our lives,” Simmons explained. - Lisa Edwards, sister of self-proclaimed bitcoin creator Craig Wright, predicted that the first cryptocurrency would rise to $142,000. Based on Elliott Wave Theory, she suggested that digital gold would rise to $90,000 by May 2021, decline to $55,000 by January 2022, and skyrocketing to $142,000 in March 2023. After that, according to Edwards, the cryptocurrency market expects a bearish trend. “Satoshi Nakamoto did not consider supply and demand. In a closed market with high demand and limited supply, the price can increase in large leaps, leading to significant increases in short periods,” she wrote. - As the CoinDesk publication reports, the income of bitcoin miners over the past week reached a new maximum of $354 million against the background of the movement of the first cryptocurrency to the $50,000 mark. The previous record figure in seven days was $340 million and was recorded in December 2017. - BNY Mellon, the oldest bank in the United States, announced the start of work with bitcoin and other digital assets through the launch of a new cryptocurrency storage service. According to CNBC, the bank will allow cryptocurrencies to pass through the same financial network that it currently uses for traditional assets like treasuries and stocks. Roman Regelman, head of digital at BNY Mellon, said the financial institution is proud to be the first global bank to announce plans to provide integrated services for crypto assets. He noted that the bank will be able to start offering these services to clients this year. - Another major US bank, JPMorgan Chase is ready to support bitcoin trading if clients are interested in it, announced the bank's co-president and chief operating officer Daniel Pinto. “If, over time, an asset class develops that will be used by various managers and investors, we will have to get involved,” he told CNBC. "There is no demand yet, but I'm sure it will appear at some point." It became known that JPMorgan Chase organized a virtual meeting in January with the participation of thousands of traders and sales professionals from different parts of the world, during which it inquired about their interest in trading BTC. Last week, according to CNBC, another bank, Goldman Sachs, convened a closed forum for employees and clients with the participation of Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, where he spoke about bitcoin, Ethereum and other digital assets. - The owner of the Vietnamese Internet cafe Star Computer has redesigned the business to mine Ethereum. The idea came to the entrepreneur after the number of visitors to the computer club dropped markedly due to restrictions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. “I am changing the business model: the profit is higher than from the main activity,” he announced. - Bloomberg said that the founder of Telegram Pavel Durov bought $750 worth of bitcoins about four years ago. According to the publication, after the sale of a stake in the social network VKontakte he founded, the entrepreneur left Russia, owning $300 million and 2,000 BTC. At the moment, the cost of his initial investment in the leading cryptocurrency has reached $100 million. - Another piece of news regarding Telegram. Telecommunications company T-Mobile has become a defendant in the lawsuit. California resident Calvin Cheng has filed a lawsuit in New York City after losing $450,000 as a result of SIM swapping - an account hack through SIM swapping. According to Cheng, he acquired the cryptocurrency by negotiating via the Telegram messenger and using a crypto exchange operated by Iterative Capital. A few months later, in May 2020, he received a message, also via Telegram, from the phone number of Iterative Capital co-founder Brandon Buchanan. He offered a higher price for 15 bitcoins. Cheng transferred the cryptocurrency to the specified wallet, but the money for bitcoins never arrived. A few days later, Buchanan notified customers that his accounts had been hacked using SIM swapping. The co-founder of Iterative Capital used the services of T-Mobile, and Cheng believes that the company violated obligations to protect the personal and financial information of customers, and, in addition, was negligent in hiring and training support staff, and therefore it is obliged to reimburse him for the losses incurred. - UK police, with the support of Europol, have arrested eight suspects in SIM card fraud. According to law enforcement officers, fraudsters have stolen money and crypto assets worth $100 million. The attacks were carried out throughout 2020 from the UK, and the victims of the scammers living in the United States were "famous influencers, sports stars, musicians and their families." Fraudsters uploaded identification information from SIM cards of victims' phones to their cards, thus gaining control over their crypto wallets and bank accounts. - It became known that the Mayor of Miami (USA) Francis Suarez has already taken a number of steps to legalize cryptocurrency as an investment and payment instrument. “We have made bitcoin an available currency for potential investors. In addition, employees can receive salaries in cryptocurrency, which is a huge step forward,” he wrote on Twitter. New York Mayor and former presidential candidate Andrew Young and Reno, Nevada Mayor Hillary Shiv supported Suarez's decision. And Andrew Young said that he would try to make the financial centre of the world become a centre for cryptocurrencies. According to a number of experts, such steps and statements by US politicians and officials have a positive impact on the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Forex Trend Indicators: Destination, Features, Varieties Finding patterns, repeatability and historical cyclicality is one of the main tasks of a trader. Some use graphic patterns to look for the silhouettes of geometric shapes. Some study the characteristic price movements: acceleration, braking, and interaction with graphic objects. However, there is a huge category of traders who are engaged in technical analysis of Forex using indicators. They allow you to predict the market, study its various characteristics and use these patterns in your own trading. Even beginners who have just heard about the existence of technical analysis will be able to analyze the market with their help. One of the largest categories of the entire variety of instruments is Forex trend indicators. They are based on a simple pattern of price movement, namely, the tendency to trend movements. A trend is a forward movement of the price up or down, in which the rewriting of extremes is characteristic. It is formed under the influence of majority positions in the market when there is a prolonged imbalance between buyers and sellers. By identifying a trend, you shift the likelihood of success of the trade to your own direction. We will tell you in this article what Forex trend indicators are used for, what you should pay attention to when working with them, and what place they can take in the trading system. Purpose and Methods of Using Trend Indicators The overwhelming majority of books on technical analysis are based on the fact that the trend is the basis around which strategies are built. You should always stick to its direction and open trades in its direction. A trader must be able to identify it and build trading in its direction. However, it is difficult to determine it in a timely manner and without errors. This is due to market noise, which blur the overall picture of what is happening. Trend indicators were created to combat it, that, depending on the formula embedded in them, average the price or in other ways indicate the global price movement, helping to determine the direction of future transactions. Most often, their use is reduced to the filter function in the strategy, when the signals from the oscillator are matched with a global trend. For example, it can be a bundle of EMA and Stochastic, RSI, any other indicators of building channels and levels can be used. If they match in their readings, a trade is opened, and in case of a discrepancy, a trade should not be opened. In addition to the filter, they can give signals to enter the market. This could be both a change in global and short-term trends. One way or another, indicators of this type can be a source of data for opening future positions by a trader. In some cases, trend indicators can also be used to set Stop Loss. A prime example is setting a stop order under EMA, where the indicator line is the main pointer to limit risk. Three Main Trend Indicators Technical Analysis is world famous for its range of instruments around the world. A huge number of custom developments allows you to create a wide variety of trading systems. As mentioned above, a trader can take any trend-type instrument as a basis and attach an RSI indicator or any other oscillator to it. As a result, you get a balanced basis for developing a trading strategy. The following TOP-3 trend indicators on Forex can be distinguished among all the tools that the MetaTrader terminal allows you to use. This is Moving Average, MACD, Bollinger Bands. They are present by default in all existing terminals and are considered standard. By the way, NordFX broker allows you to work with them through the MT4 terminal, which can be installed not only on a computer, but even on your mobile phone. Moving Average Review The Moving Average indicator is a classic trend indicator that draws a price line on a chart by averaging its value over a specified number of candles. SMA is considered a basic tool for technical analysis. First, it is a medium-arithmetic value, easy to calculate, and therefore was created one of the first. Secondly, many modifications and other indicators have been created on its basis. Thirdly, a trader can implement absolutely any strategy on its basis (Fig. 1). There are several types of moving averages: 1. Simple moving average (SMA); 2. Exponential Moving Average (EMA); 3. Weighted moving average (WMA). It is difficult to see the difference between them at a first glance. The fact is that they differ in the type of price averaging, which entails some differences in sensitivity and lag. The last one on the list is the slowest and roughest of market noise. EMA is on the contrary the fastest and is more commonly used in practice. The line you see on your chart can generate the following signals: 1. Crossing of the line and the price; 2. Crossing of the moving average lines between each other; 3. Average with a large period as a line of support and resistance. We also want to pay attention to the angles of inclination and the position of price relative to the line. If it is above the line, the current trend is upward, if it is below the line, it is downward. It is worth reminding once again that in strategies Moving Average is almost always used in tandem with oscillators: Stochastic, RSI and others, which help to determine the beginning, continuation or end of the current trend. A simple example of how the Stochastic indicator exits the overbought zone confirms a downtrend in the SMA and gives a command to open a sell trade is shown in Figure 2 below: MACD Overview This indicator is sometimes mistakenly considered an oscillator. This is not the case, because it is based on price averaging. The MACD algorithm is based on the convergence and divergence of two Moving Averages, and the histogram shows the distance between them. So MACD, unlike Stochastic or RSI, is not a stochastic oscillator, but a classic trend indicator (Fig. 3). It is a huge source of signals, as it is able to find short-term and medium-term changes of the trend, generate signals to change the global trend. Its most formidable weapon is divergence. It has become a common signal for a huge number of Forex indicators. Divergence is a reversal type of signal that is formed due to the mismatch of the extremes of the instrument with the real price. Simply put, if the price curve is still going down, and the indicator curve has already turned upstairs, this is a strong signal that the trend reversal should soon be expected. Thus, MACD, like other reversal indicators, is able not to post facto, but to warn in advance about fractures in price movements. The example is given in Figure 4: You can see divisions above and below the 0.00 mark on the histogram. At moments when the graph crosses this zero line, a global trend change is fixed. It is clear that if the intersection occurs from bottom up, then the trend has changed from downward to rising. Accordingly, at the reverse level crossing, the trend changes from ascending to descending. Also note how the MACD histogram interacts with the signal red dotted line. Their intersection generates a signal of a short-term change in the price movement and helps to determine the moment for opening orders either for buy or sell (Fig. 5). Some Forex traders use this indicator not only together with other technical analysis tools, but also on their own. This is explained by the strength and accuracy of the MACD signals, especially if divergence occurs on the chart. Bollinger Bands Review Bollinger Bands round out the top three Forex trend indicators. They are an ordinary moving average, at a distance from which a trading range is built. It is interesting that this indicator is able to find and give the trader information not only about the direction of the trend, but also about the market volatility, as well as give signals to pull back from the boundaries of the range (Fig. 6). Bollinger Bands demonstrate the strength and potential of the trend with its range. When the channel narrows, a transition from trend to flat or accumulation stage should be expected. Expansion, on the other hand, indicates an increase in volatility and trend activity. Trading can be based on the interaction of the indicator lines and the price, which can bounce back from them, break them or test them. This allows you to trade either on the break, or on the breakdown of the range. Both options will be correct. An example of how the Relative Strength Index indicator works in tandem with Bollinger Bands to rebound from the range boundaries can be seen in Fig. 7: Strengths and Weaknesses The strong point of trend indicators is the ability to cut off minor price fluctuations and identify the main trend of its movement. Фlmost all trend instruments use the averaging algorithm to combat market noise. On the one hand, it frees you from noise, makes the market picture clearer and more understandable. On the other side of the scale is the signal delay. Moreover, the more noise the indicator cuts off, the more delayed its signals. It should also be borne in mind that signals such as, for example, divergence, can occur quite rarely. Therefore, having missed one such signal, you can wait a long time for the next one to appear. Especially if you trade on large time frames. However, the usefulness and effectiveness of Forex trend indicators is beyond doubt. They allow not to be mistaken with the global direction of the price, due to which they are able to become the basis of a high-quality trading strategy and bring stable profits both in manual trading and in automatic trading with the help of robot advisors. Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 22 - 26, 2021 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. The sharp rise in bond yields in the US and Europe has hit not only the stock market, but also the “carry trade”, providing support to funding currencies, primarily the euro and the US dollar. Recall that the funding currency is usually a currency with a low interest rate. Implementing the carry trade strategy, traders borrow it and then deposit it in another currency, such as developing countries, with a higher rate. And now the fall in risk sentiment has led to an exit from such deals, and the strengthening of both EUR and USD. Apparently, this can explain the consolidation of this pair. And if the preponderance was on the side of the dollar in the first half of the week, then, investors began to buy up the cheaper euro starting from Wednesday, February 17. As a result, having started the week at the level of 1.2120, the EUR/USD pair ended it almost there, at the level of 1.2115; - GBP/USD. The pound continues to push north, approaching the 2018 highs. The pair broke through the psychologically important level of 1.4000 on Friday, February 19, recording a weekly high at the height of 1.4035. It completed the trading session at the same level 1.4000, after a slight rebound. The American currency lost to the British one amid weak data from the US labor market. Investors expected a decrease in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits from 848 thousand to 765 thousand, while, on the contrary, it rose to 861 thousand over the week. The number of secondary applications was not encouraging either, it decreased from 4.558 million to 4.494 million, instead of the forecasted 4.413 million. Investors were fast to recall the statements of the FRS officials that it would take more than one year to return the labor market to the previous levels, and that it was necessary to take new measures to support the US economy. But the data on the consumer market and business activity, released in the UK last week, looked pretty good. The Markit index in February was at 49.7 against 39.5, only slightly short of 50, the threshold that separates growth in economic activity from its fall. These figures have once again strengthened the confidence of buyers of the British currency that the Bank of England will refrain from allocating new funds under QE and from cutting the interest rate. As a result, the GBP/USD pair went further up, taking the next important milestone - 1.4000; - USD/JPY. The main trends of this pair, as well as EUR/USD, were determined last week by disappointing data from the US labor market and a sharp rise in government bond yields. The Japanese GDP data released on Monday 15 February, although was significantly better than the forecast (3.0% versus 2.3%), had no effect on market sentiment, once again showing that the rate of this pair is being formed in the USA. Recall that the opinions of experts last week were divided almost equally: 40% supported the growth of the pair, 30% were for its fall and as much for lateral movement. And, in general, everyone turned out to be right. The pair grew for the first half of the week, reaching a height of 106.20, then it fell, and the finish of the five-day period took place near the place where it had already started on February 08 - at 105.40; - cryptocurrencies. As we predicted, bitcoin has hit the $50,000 bar and is quoted at $55,000 at the time of writing. Starting from February 01, the main cryptocurrency added about 60% in weight, the growth of Ethereum (ETH/USD) amounted to a little less than 50%, the leader in this three was Litecoin (LTC/USD) with 80%. In general, the situation for the digital market is quite positive. Even conservative structures such as American banks have turned their views in its direction. The oldest US bank, BNY Mellon, has announced the start of work with bitcoin and other digital assets. Another major US bank, JPMorgan Chase, is also ready to support bitcoin trading. It became known that JPMorgan Chase organized a virtual meeting in January with the participation of thousands of traders and sales professionals from different parts of the world, during which it inquired about their interest in trading BTC. And last week, another bank, Goldman Sachs, held a closed forum for employees and customers on the topic of cryptocurrencies, at which the speaker was Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital. The statements of a number of US politicians and officials also have a positive impact on the price of digital assets. For example, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez announced that he had already taken a number of steps to legalize cryptocurrency. “We have made bitcoin an available currency for potential investors. In addition, employees can receive salaries in cryptocurrency, which is a huge step forward,” he wrote on Twitter. Candidate for mayor of New York and former candidate for US President Andrew Young supported his colleague, saying that he will try to make the financial center of the world become a center for cryptocurrencies as well. And St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard called bitcoin a rival for gold. Institutional investors continue to buy both cryptocurrencies and shares of miners and crypto funds. So, the Grayscale Investments fund added 20,000 ETH to its Ethereum portfolio last week, bringing its volume to $6 billion. Another impetus for the growth of the BTC/USD pair was MicroStrategy's decision to raise another $900 million to buy bitcoins. Overall, the supply / demand ratio remains in favor of bitcoin: 150,000 BTC coins were mined and almost 360,000 were bought back over the last five months of 2020, and investors hope that this balance will continue in the future. At the same time, buyers look at the head of Tesla Elon Musk, whose tweets alone push the quotes sharply upward. However, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is now interested in his "creativity" on Twitter, considering that the billionaire's calls to buy digital assets fall under the law on the offer and advertising of securities and can be regarded as unregistered brokerage activities and attempts to manipulate the market. If proven, Elon Musk could face huge fines. In the meantime, the entrepreneur said that he was taking a break and would no longer post tweets, at least in the near future. As for the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, even without Musk's tweets, it grew over the week from $1,458 billion to $1,625 billion. And the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is slowly but inexorably approaching its maximum value of 100 points. It has now reached 93, which indicates a strong overheating of the market. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. The European Union is still under blockade of restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. But in the United States, not everything is as rosy as expected. Weak data on the labor market, the growth of initial applications for unemployment benefits put pressure on the dollar. It can be understood from the statements of ECB executives that even if bond yields in Europe continue to rise, the bank is unlikely to increase the volume of the quantitative easing (QE) programme. Officials from the Governing Council of the ECB believe that the measures they have taken are quite sufficient, it just takes some time for them to have the maximum positive effect. The situation is exactly the opposite on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. Judging by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's appeals to the US Congress and the Federal Reserve minutes published on February 18, QE volumes will continue to increase. The soft monetary policy will continue until the economy of this country shows steady growth. The next measure will be the adoption of another stimulus package worth $1.9 trillion. In such a situation it is logical to expect a weakening of the dollar in the medium term, and the rise of the EUR/USD pair first to the zone of 1.2200-1.2300, and then return to the January high of 1.2350. 65% of analysts agree with this scenario. But as for the weekly forecast, the picture is different. The majority (70%) of experts believe that the pair should retest the support in the 1.2020 zone in the near future and try to reach the February 05 low of 1.1955. This bearish development is supported by 15% of the oscillators on H4 and D1, which give signals that the pair is overbought. The rest of the oscillators, as well as 75% of the trend indicators, are colored green. But graphical analysis on both time frames draws consolidation in the range 1.2020-1.2155. As for the events of the week, here the speeches of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde on Monday 22 February and the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell in the US Congress on Wednesday 24 February are of interest, as well as annual data on GDP and the volume of orders for capital and durable goods in the United States to be published on Thursday 25 February; - GBP/USD. It is clear that 100% of the trend indicators and 85% of oscillators on H4 and D1 point north. The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. The overwhelming majority of analysts (75%) are also awaiting a correction to the south. True, in their opinion, this may not happen in the coming week, but in the first half of March. Support levels are 1.3950, 1.3850, 1.3775, 1.3600. The potential for British currency growth has not yet been exhausted so far. And everything will depend on whose structural problems, the US or the UK, will put more pressure on their national currencies. This refers not only to quantitative easing and interest rates, but also the issue and yield of government securities, as well as the risk of high inflation due to excessively high budget spending. We outlined in the first part of the review how the data from the US labor market affected the pair's behavior. Similar macro statistics on the UK labour market are expected to be released in the coming week, on Tuesday 23 February. And if it looks quite optimistic, you can expect the continuation of the uptrend of the GBP/USD pair. Other events include a speech by the British Prime Minister the day before. Although, most likely, Boris Johnson will do without much specifics, and will enthusiastically talk about the successes of his Cabinet in the fight against the pandemic, the record pace of vaccinations, and how relations with the EU are developing after Brexit; - USD/JPY ... 104.40-105.40 is the zone that the pair has visited many times over the past 30 weeks. This allows us to speak of it as the Pivot Point of the medium-term sideways channel 102.60-107.00. By the way, the maximum trading range of 440 points on the semi-annual segment is actually not so great. In October, for example, the pair made 240-point throws in just one day. At the moment, only 35% of experts believe that the pair has not yet completed its movement to the upper border of this trading range. True, 75% of oscillators and 80% of trend indicators on D1 are on their side, which gives additional weight to this forecast. Resistance levels are 105.70, 106.20, the target is 107.00. The opposite view is held by 65% of analysts, with the number rising to 80% when moving from a weekly to a monthly forecast. They have a similar number of indicators on their side, on H4 this time. Support levels are 105.00, 104.40, 103.60, the target is 102.60. Graphical analysis shows fluctuations of the pair in the trading range 104.40-106.20 with a predominance of bearish sentiment. - cryptocurrencies. As bitcoin prices grow, there are fewer buyers in the market. The most cautious ones left back in December, when the coin reached its previous all-time high of $20,000. The next phase of closing long positions followed after bitcoin's rise to $40,000. Only the most die-hard investors and crypto fans have made it to the $50,000 level. Bitcoin is overbought. But after the price stepped over $55,000 on Friday evening February 19, there was no active sale. The market froze in anticipation. Alarming signals are already coming, though. First, the share of sellers is growing, which has increased from 18% to 35% over the past two weeks. Second, about 2/3 of traders buy perpetual futures contracts using leverage, resulting in higher funding rates and commission costs while maintaining long positions. And third, the shares of miners went down. According to CoinDesk, weekly earnings of bitcoin miners reached a new high of $354 million from February 08 to 14. The previous record figure in seven days was $340 million and was recorded in December 2017. But despite this positive, for example, Riot Blockchain Inc shares lost 20% in price only on February 18. However, according to a number of experts, it is not worth waiting for the onset of a new crypto winter. Though it may be a deep one, it is just a correction. Moreover, at small volumes there is a probability of growth of bitcoin up to $60,000-65,000 even by inertia. And there, a new wave of purchases can be triggered by FOMO - Lost Profit Syndrome (Fear Of Missing Out). After all, fear and greed are known to drive the market. Lisa Edwards, sister of self-proclaimed bitcoin creator Craig Wright, has predicted that the first cryptocurrency would rise to $142,000. Based on Elliott Wave Theory, she suggested that digital gold would rise to $90,000 by May 2021, decline to $55,000 by January 2022, and skyrocketing to $142,000 in March 2023. After that, according to Edwards, the cryptocurrency market expects a bearish trend. But even though the growth of the BTC/USD pair may continue in the near future, you need to be very cautious about purchases at current levels. Most analysts consider them to be quite risky and suggest waiting for a rollback, and only then open new long positions. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 CryptoNews - After bitcoin hit an all-time high of $58,275 on February 21, investors were looking forward to taking the $60,000 high. However, there was a sudden reversal and a sharp drop of 23% to $44,985. According to many experts, the trigger of the massive profit fixation by "whales" was the statement of the former head of the Fed and now the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on the speculative nature of cryptocurrency and the possibility of using it for money laundering. According to analyst Sven Henrich, the head of the Ministry of Finance has actually declared war on bitcoin. “Digital currencies can provide faster and cheaper payments. But there are many issues to be explored, including consumer protection and money laundering,” Janet Yelen said, also mentioning the possibility of launching the Central Bank's own digital currency (CBDC). The fall in bitcoin could also have been facilitated by the fall in global indices of technology companies, as well as the beginning of a large-scale vaccination against coronavirus. - According to Bloomberg, against the background of the decline in the bitcoin rate, the head of Tesla and SpaceX, Elon Musk, lost the first place in the ranking of the richest people on the planet. Tesla shares fell 8.6%, causing Musk to lose $15.2 billion. Shortly before the decline, the company announced that it had added $1.5 billion in bitcoin to its balance sheet. At the same time, the fall in bitcoin, according to Bloomberg, may be partly related to the statement of Musk himself, who called the prices of cryptocurrencies too high. - Due to technical failures, some customers of the Philippine crypto exchange PDAX were able to buy bitcoin almost 10 times cheaper than the market price, Bitpinas reports. One of the users admitted that he bought bitcoins for 300,000 pesos ($6,150), while the average market price of BTC was about $50,000, after which he transferred the cryptocurrency to his wallet. A day later, PDAX sent him a letter demanding the return of the bitcoins, but the buyer's lawyer claims that "the transaction was legitimate, in accordance with applicable laws, and PDAX cannot withdraw transactions unilaterally." Another client of this crypto exchange unexpectedly found 40 billion Philippine pesos or about 820 million dollars in his account. It is not reported whether he was able to withdraw this "gift" from PDAX. - Three platforms - Binance, Huobi and OKEx - account for 75% of the total trading volume on crypto exchanges, according to BDCenter Digital. The safest exchanges were Kraken, Coinbase and Binance. The study showed that the number of cryptocurrency users has almost tripled since 2018 and reached 191 million users from over 150 countries in the third quarter of 2020. At the same time, the researchers emphasize that the availability of an exchange in a country does not mean the actual availability of all its products and functionality. So the purchase of cryptocurrencies using a credit card is supported only by 65% of sites. - One of the world's largest money transfer services, MoneyGram, refused to use the product based on the XRP token due to the claims of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against Ripple. This is stated in a report by the company. Against the backdrop of SEC claims, in addition to MoneyGram, Coinbase and OKCoin, Galaxy Digital, Bitstamp, B2C2, eToro and Kraken have already refused to support the XRP token. Asset management company Grayscale Investments announced the liquidation of an XRP-based investment trust, and 21Shares has excluded the Ripple token from its traded exchange products. - Australian authorities have charged a Sydney resident suspected of drug trafficking, money laundering and bitcoin money laundering for a total of $4.3 million. The police found two bags with $1 million in cash in his car, and seized mobile phones, a laptop and a batch of illegal substances from his home. Recall that in January 2021, the owner of the RG Coins cryptocurrency exchange Rossen Iosifov already received 121 months in prison for laundering about $5 million using digital assets. - Analysts reviewed publications about cryptocurrency exchanges in various media. Cointelegraph was the leading media outlet by the number of articles. The first place in popularity was taken by English, the second - Russian. According to BDCenter Digital, 12 out of 100 Twitter posts are about cryptocurrency. In just the week of February 7-14, Twitter users mentioned bitcoin over 675,000 times. The last record was set on January 10, when the weekly number of posts mentioning bitcoin reached 576,000. - According to a responsible representative of the Russian Orthodox Church, it does not plan to create its own cryptocurrency to accept donations. The church has also refused to accept bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies. At the same time, according to Metropolitan Hilarion, believers may well make donations to the church using the phone. - According to the co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Assets Anthony Pompliano, the main cryptocurrency may reach $500 thousand by the end of this decade, and even $1 million in the long term. However, the growth of cryptocurrency quotes may stop due to the rapid recovery of the global economy after the recession caused by the coronavirus epidemic. In this case, central banks will begin to roll back their quantitative easing programs, raise interest rates, stop buying assets and printing cheap money. As a result, investment flows into bitcoin, as one of the most attractive safe havens, can dry up very quickly. - The largest developer of graphics processors, the American technology company Nvidia has announced plans to release a series of video cards specifically for mining the Ethereum cryptocurrency, which is the second after bitcoin. According to CNBC, the new type of GPU is called CMP (Crypto Mining Processor) and can appear in the market already in March 2021. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Two More Awards for NordFX: Best Affiliate Program & Best Forex Broker Middle East 2020 At the end of 2020, the Forex-Awards.com expert council named NordFX Best Forex Broker Middle East. The two-tier NordFX affiliate program was also awarded a prestigious award. Forex-Awards.com is a team of professionals headquartered in Hong Kong, which specializes in the analysis and evaluation of brokerage companies since 2010, aiming to identify the real market leaders. Based on the opinions of both independent experts and the trader community, Forex-Awards.com employees compile regular ratings of brokers, identifying their strongest and most attractive sides. The winners in each of the 30 nominations are then determined based on the results obtained. A convincing victory was won by the brokerage company NordFX in two of them in 2020. More than one and a half million accounts have been opened by clients from almost 190 countries during 13 years of NordFX work, among them many traders from the Middle East. Back in 2013, at the 12th MENA Forex Show, the company won the prize as Best Forex Arabic Platform. And now the new award confirms the high level of services that NordFX provides to clients from this region: the first place in the Best Forex Broker Middle East nomination. Another victory at the Forex Awards was won in the Best Affiliate Program category. Since 2016, thanks to its effectiveness and popularity, NordFX's two-tier affiliate program has been receiving the highest marks. It has been recognized as the best by expert committees of not only Forex-Awards.com, but also by Academy Masterforex-V and Saigon Financial Education Summit. More than 25,000 of the company's partners have already been paid more than $30,000,000 as commission until now, and these figures continue to grow steadily. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 01-05, 2021 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. As we expected, the speech by the head of the Fed turned out to be quite interesting. Jerome Powell presented to Congress a semi-annual report on monetary policy, from which it followed that not everything is as good as we would like as far as the recovery of the US economy is concerned. The surge in economic activity in the summer of 2020 was followed by the slowsown of the growth rate. The decline in unemployment has slowed down, and household expenditures are not growing either. After the unrest and turmoil of 2020, a lot of attention is paid to socio-demographic differentiation, but the picture is not the rosiest either. Unemployment among "white" Americans, according to the Fed, is 5.7%, while among Hispanics - 8.6%, and among African Americans it is even higher - 9.2%. There is also discrimination based on gender: for the last month of 2020, men gained 16,000 new jobs, while women, on the contrary, lost 140,000. All of the above raises certain doubts about the early recovery of the American economy, leads to a decrease in risk sentiment, and strikes a blow on the stock market and the US dollar. Investors are shifting attention to long-term government bonds. Since the beginning of 2021, the yield on 10-year treasuries has jumped from 0.91% to 1.56%, and their growth has become especially noticeable recently. As for stock indices (especially stocks of technology companies), they, accordingly, go down sharply. For example, the S&P500 was losing up to 3.8% in just two days - February 25-26, while the Nasdaq Composite was sinking by more than 3%. The DXY dollar index is also gradually approaching 2018 lows, losing about 9% this year. In such a situation, most analysts (65%) expected the dollar to weaken and rise to the 1.2200-1.2300 zone, which happened: at the week's high, February 25, the EUR/USD pair was approaching 1.2245. However, then it seems that investors changed their minds and began to realize that the growing yield of long-term Treasury securities directly affects the growth of rates on current consumer lending. And that immediately brings to mind the 2008 mortgage crisis, which marked the beginning of a series of major bankruptcies. As a result, the dollar strengthened a little and the EUR/USD pair dropped to the zone 1.2070-1.2100 - the place where it has already been several times since last December. This can only say about one thing: the confusion of the market and the lack of clarity about the prospects of the European and American economies; - GBP/USD. As predicted, Prime Minister Boris Johnson's speech on Monday 22 February, as well as the expectation of positive data from the UK labour market on Tuesday 23 February, continued to push the pair GBP/USD to the highs of 2018, raising it to the height of 1.4240. And of course, the dynamics of the pair could not but be affected by what was happening in the United States. Therefore, repeating the EUR/USD parabola, the GBP/USD pair went south on Thursday February 25, especially since it was overbought, and some reason was simply needed to take profit on the pound. On Friday, having lost 355 points, the pair found a local bottom at 1.3885. This was followed by a rebound and a finish at 1.3930; - USD/JPY. It was said last week that this pair was moving within the medium-term side channel 102.60-107.00. Only 35% of experts believed then that the pair had not yet completed its movement to the upper border of this trading range. True, 75% of oscillators and 80% of trend indicators on D1 were on their side, which gave additional weight to this forecast, which turned out to be absolutely correct. The USD/JPY pair recorded a 26-week high at 106.70 on the second half of Friday, February 26. As for the final chord, it sounded at the height of 106.55; - cryptocurrencies. We have repeatedly written that the presence of large institutional investors in the crypto market is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, they can strongly push the market up, and on the other hand, they can crash the quotes if they fix profits. In addition, the actions and sentiments of such institutions are highly dependent on the actions and sentiments of regulators and other government agencies. We felt all this in full last week. After bitcoin hit an all-time high of $58,275 on February 21, investors were looking forward to taking the $60,000 high. However, there was a sudden reversal and a sharp drop of 23% to $44,985. Then the rebound to $50,000, and a fall again - to $44,000. According to many experts, the trigger of the massive profit fixation by "whales" was the statement of the former head of the Fed and now the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on the speculative nature of cryptocurrency and the possibility of using it for money laundering. According to analyst Sven Henrich, the head of the Ministry of Finance has actually declared war on bitcoin. “Digital currencies can provide faster and cheaper payments. But there are many issues to be explored, including consumer protection and money laundering,” Janet Yelen said, also mentioning the possibility of launching the Central Bank's own digital currency (CBDC). The fall in bitcoin could also have been facilitated by the fall in global indexes of technology companies and the beginning of large-scale vaccinations against coronavirus, but the main thing is the position of the US Government. According to Bloomberg, against the background of the decline in the bitcoin rate, the head of Tesla and SpaceX, Elon Musk, lost the first place in the ranking of the richest people on the planet. Tesla shares fell by 8.6%, as a result of which Musk lost $15.2 billion. At the same time, the fall in bitcoin, according to Bloomberg, may be partly due to the statement of Musk himself, who called the prices of cryptocurrencies too high. It is not for nothing that they say that a word is silver, and silence is gold. Musk would be better off keeping his mouth shut ?. Of course, someone loses, and someone finds. Thus, for example, due to technical failures, some customers of the Philippine crypto exchange PDAX were able to buy bitcoin almost 10 times cheaper than the market price, Bitpinas reports. One of the users admitted that he bought bitcoins for 300,000 pesos ($6,150), while the average market price of BTC was about $50,000, after which he transferred the cryptocurrency to his wallet. A day later, PDAX sent him a letter demanding the return of the bitcoins, but the buyer's lawyer claims that "the transaction was legitimate, in accordance with applicable laws, and PDAX cannot withdraw transactions unilaterally." Another client of this crypto exchange unexpectedly found 40 billion Philippine pesos or about 820 million dollars in his account. It is not reported whether he was able to withdraw this "gift" from PDAX. In general, the reliability of crypto exchanges is still a rather painful topic. According to BDCenter Digital agency, Kraken, Coinbase and Binance are the safest exchanges. The brokerage company NordFX can also be noted here, whose clients can also make transactions and store deposits in cryptocurrencies. In the 13 years of this broker, it has not had a single hack and not a single penny of client funds has been lost. On Friday evening, February 26, the BTC/USD pair is trading in the $46,000 zone. The total market capitalization fell over the week from $1,625 billion to $1,410 billion. AND The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has finally come out of strong overbought zone to neutral levels, dropping from 93 to 55. When it comes to altcoins, there is both good news and bad news. For example, the largest developer of GPUs - American technology company Nvidia announced plans to release a series of graphics cards specifically for mining Ethereum. According to CNBC, they can be expected to appear on sale this March. But it looks like the hard times will not end for Ripple. One of the world's largest money transfer services, MoneyGram, refused to use the product based on the XRP token due to the claims of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against Ripple. Against the backdrop of SEC claims, in addition to MoneyGram, Coinbase and OKCoin, Galaxy Digital, Bitstamp, B2C2, eToro and Kraken have already refused to support the XRP token. Asset management company Grayscale Investments announced the liquidation of an XRP-based investment trust, and 21Shares has removed the Ripple token from its exchange-traded products. As a result, the Ripple lost up to 45% of its value last week, and the XRP/USD pair was trading at $0.42 on the evening of February 26. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. The figures given in the first part of the review confirm the opinion of the US Federal Reserve management that it is still very, very early to talk about any curtailment of the quantitative easing (QE) program, as well as about raising interest rates. Therefore, the Fed will continue its soft monetary policy, even as inflation expectations rise caused by a doubling of the Fed's balance sheet over the past year. However, not only the US has the problem of increasing national debt. Europe is experiencing similar problems, and the interest rate there is even lower than on the other side of the Atlantic. The profitability of European government securities is also growing. Thus, the rate on 10-year bonds in Germany has already reached an 11-month high. In general, we can say that the balance between the problems and achievements of the Old and New Worlds remains on average at the same level, experiencing minor temporary fluctuations, which is reflected in the three-month sideways trend of the EUR/USD pair. If you look at its chart, it can be seen that, since December 2020, most of the time it moves in a fairly narrow trading range of 1.2050-1.2185, with emissions up to 1.1950 and 1.2350. If we talk about the short term, 70% of analysts believe that the pair will continue to decline to the 1.1950-1.2000 zone. They are supported in this by 75% of oscillators on H4, the remaining 25% give signals that the pair is oversold. As for the oscillators on D1, there are approximately equal shares of red, green and gray-neutral colors. 95% of the trend indicators on H4 and 65% on D1 are painted red. But graphical analysis on both timeframes gives preference to the upward movement of the pair. Resistance levels are 1.2170 1.2240 and 1.2270. However, after this push to the north, graphical analysis on D1 draws a decline in the pair during March to support at 1.1950. And now about the events of the coming week, of which there will be quite a few. Firstly, we are waiting for the speeches of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde on Monday March 01 and the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell on Thursday March 4. Statistics on the consumer markets of Germany and the EU will be released on March 01, 02 and 04. As for the US macro statistics, the indicators of ISM business activity in the manufacturing and private sectors will be known on Monday and Wednesday. And in addition, data on the labor market will be published on Wednesday and Friday. Moreover, according to forecasts, a significant increase in new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP) is possible - from 49K to 148K; - GBP/USD. First, the readings of technical indicators. Oscillators: 90% on H4 are looking south, 10% are in the oversold zone; only 15% are looking to the south on D1, 50% to the north, and 35% are neutral. Trend indicators: 80% look south on H4, 20% look north, 25% look south on D1, 75% look north. Graphic analysis on D1 draws a side trend in the range 1.3860-1.4240. And it is clear that since the pair finished the previous week closer to the lower border of this channel, it will move upward. 60% of experts agree with this forecast. Resistance levels are 1.3960, 1.4055, 1.4085 and 1.4175. The remaining 30% believe that the pair will break the lower border of the channel 1.3860, then support around 1.3800 and will go to the 1.3600-1.3760 zone. It should be noted that, when moving from weekly to monthly forecast, the number of supporters of the bears increases to 65%. - USD/JPY. The multi-month downtrend of this pair was stopped on January 06, and it turned north, moving to the upward channel. According to the graphical analysis on D1, the USD/JPY pair has almost reached its upper border now, which is in the zone 106.70-107.00, and should soon bounce back to the south. Such a scenario is supported by 25% of the oscillators giving signals about the pair being overbought. It is clear that the remaining 75% of oscillators and 100% of the indicators on both time frames are colored green so far. As for experts, a third of them sides with the bulls, a third votes for the bears, and a third takes a neutral stance. However, in the transition from weekly to monthly forecast, 75% of analysts vote for the pair to stay within the medium-term trading range of 102.60-107.00 (it was mentioned in the first part of the review), and therefore await its return to its central zone at 105.00. Support levels are 106.10 and 105.70; The remaining 25% of experts believe that the pair will be able to reach the zone of 108.00-108.50; - cryptocurrencies. The popularity and prominence of cryptocurrencies continues to grow. According to BDCenter Digital, 12 out of 100 Twitter posts are about cryptocurrency. In just the week of February 7-14, Twitter users mentioned bitcoin over 675,000 times. The last record was set on January 10, when the weekly number of posts mentioning bitcoin reached 576,000. In total, the number of cryptocurrency users has stepped over 200 million people from more than 150 countries. Despite the drop last week, 2021 started off well for bitcoin overall. The pair started at $28,800 on January 1 and is trading at $46,000 at the time of writing, having gained almost 60%. And now, importantly, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has finally emerged from a strong overbought state, dropping from 93 to neutral 55. Of course, this does not mean that the quotes of the BTC/USD pair will immediately fly up. However, what is happening gives investors hope for the fulfillment of the positive predictions of many experts and crypto gurus. recall that Lisa Edwards, sister of self-proclaimed bitcoin creator Craig Wright, has predicted that the first cryptocurrency would rise to $142,000. Based on Elliott Wave Theory, she suggested that digital gold would rise to $90,000 by May 2021, decline to $55,000 by January 2022, and skyrocketing to $142,000 in March 2023. According to the co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Assets Anthony Pompliano, the main cryptocurrency may reach $500 thousand by the end of this decade, and even $1 million in the long term. However, the growth of cryptocurrency quotes may stop due to the rapid recovery of the global economy after the recession caused by the coronavirus epidemic. In this case, central banks will begin to roll back their quantitative easing programs, raise interest rates, stop buying assets and printing cheap money. As a result, investment flows into bitcoin, as one of the most attractive safe havens, can dry up very quickly. So, what did we observe last week - a temporary correction or the beginning of a new "crypto winter"? The question is still open. However, the overwhelming majority of experts (70%) believe that the BTC/USD pair will reach the $ 60,000-75,000 zone in spring. The pessimism of the remaining 30% of analysts is expressed in the figures of $30,000-35,000. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted March 3, 2021 Share Posted March 3, 2021 CryptoNews - The trading volume on cryptocurrency exchanges in February exceeded $1 trillion. Such numbers were achieved for the first time in history, according to experts. Even during the first bitcoin rally, the trading volume reached only $650 billion. According to experts of the analytical platform Block Research, large investors prefer to carry out transactions from one account to another through third-party services in order to maintain complete anonymity. Therefore, the real number of transactions can even be twice the official amount. - Users of the Opera browser will be able to carry out transactions with many popular cryptocurrencies directly in the browser. “We have added fundamentally new algorithms. We are talking about the Simplex payment processor, which is used in many reliable and reputable cryptocurrency wallets. We are ready to provide services on competitive terms. This is especially true of transaction fees, which we will have as low as possible,” Opera says in a press release. Another benefit would be creating a digital wallet without going to third-party sites. - A proponent of gold, President of Euro Pacific Capital Peter Schiff congratulated those who managed to buy the first cryptocurrency before take-off and made Wall Street succumb to "this mania." It was just recently, that this bitcoin sceptic called bitcoin the largest bubble in history and unflatteringly spoke about the mental abilities of cryptocurrency investors. And now he has admitted his mistake. “When I first heard about bitcoin, I didn't think that smart investors would be stupid enough to buy bitcoin. I was wrong," Schiff wrote. - The Google Finance platform has added a tab for monitoring digital asset prices. The new section provides real-time information on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash prices. This block has been added to the sections on the markets of the US, Asia, Europe and "Currencies", and makes it possible to compare the performance of cryptocurrencies with other financial instruments. - The amount of damage from fraud with digital currencies could double in 2021 and reach $4.5 billion. This This assumption was made by specialists of Kaspersky Lab. Other popular fraudulent schemes include the closure of bitcoin exchanges under the pretext of technical problems or hacker attacks, gaining access to user data using fake applications or websites, and sending out fraudulent emails. - The head of Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, has dramatically changed the forecast for the BTC rate for the end of 2021 upwards. “We are watching one group of investors after another,” he writes. “They were Square, MicroStrategy and Tesla corporations. These were insurance companies Mass Financial and others. These are wealthy people. This is ETF. Suddenly, buying bitcoin is no longer insignificant or risky. On the contrary, it has become risky not to have BTC in the portfolio when central banks continue to print money. Our business at Galaxy is booming. We don't have enough time to hire sales managers to reach all the institutional clients who want to understand and participate in the market." “It feels like,” says Novogratz, “we’ll stay for a bit between $42,000 and $60,000, and then the next big jump to $100,000. I will not be surprised if we reach this mark by the end of this year." - MicroStrategy bought another 328 BTC for $15 million. It is the first purchase of crypto assets in March, following its February acquisitions worth billions of dollars. And now MicroStrategy has about 90,859 BTC purchased for $2.186 billion at an average price of $24,063 per coin. Earlier, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor said the company will continue to buy digital currency: "We are focusing on two corporate strategies: expanding the enterprise analytics software business and buying and storing bitcoin." Saylor predicts that 7-8 billion people on the planet will have a “bullion of digital gold” in the phone in the long run, which they will use as family savings. - The Visa payment system is interested in changing the views of bank card holders due to the coronavirus pandemic. For example, a survey it conducted showed that 25% of all credit card holders in South America would like their banks to add the ability of settlements in cryptocurrency. One in four Hispanics expressed a desire to experiment with digital assets and try them out in everyday life. - Despite the technical limitations for cryptocurrency mining, set in the Sony PlayStation 5 game console, it is quite suitable for this process at the hardware level. This was taken advantage of by a gamer and crypto enthusiast from China named Yifan Gu, who managed to bypass the restrictions and adapted the console for Ethereum mining, gaining a profit of about $50 per week. This is reported by the Gizchina edition. Earlier, Yifan Gu adapted MacBook Air with Apple M1 chip for mining Ethereum. However, at the current rate of this altcoin, you can earn only $0.14 in one day on the MacBook Air. - One of the experts in the field of competitive intelligence has suggested that creating and maintaining the long-term hype around bitcoin is not accidental. According to him, in case the American financial elite manages to convince its creditors that having bitcoins is better than dollars, it can transfer all external debt of the US to this cryptocurrency over time. "As soon as this happens, the cryptocurrency will only have to collapse, and America's gigantic debt will actually be zeroed," the expert reflects. - Cryptocurrency mining requires more and more electricity, which poses a threat to humanity's path to “zero emissions.” This is reported by the Guardian, citing alarming research findings by American scientists. Thus, the amount of energy used to extract bitcoins exceeds the annual energy consumption of entire countries. “We're talking about a few terawatts, tens of terawatts of electricity per year that are used for bitcoin alone,” notes University of New Mexico economics professor Benjamin Jones, calling for measures to regulate cryptocurrency mining to reduce the carbon footprint. - Financial industry veteran and Fidelity Investments director of macro markets Jurrien Timmer believes that bitcoin has reached the point where it can be considered for investment and hedging inflation risks. “I think gold and bitcoin are great for replacing some of the bonds,” Timmer writes in a paper titled Understanding Bitcoin. In his opinion, the limit on the maximum number of bitcoins makes this asset very similar to gold. Moreover, the appearance of new bitcoins on the market is constantly slowing down, but the volume of gold production has remained at the same level for half a century. Timmer's views are in line with those of SkyBridge Capital founders Anthony Scaramucci and Brett Messing. They released an article in January in which they described bitcoin as a mature investment asset, comparable in reliability to gold and bonds. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 08 - 12, 2021 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. There is a saying, “a new broom sweeps clean”. If the previous US President Donald Trump were in the shoes of Joe Biden now, he would probably call the head of the Fed Jerome Powell a "traitor" for the fact that his speech on Thursday February 04 literally brought down the stock markets of America. Powell stayed indifferent to the surge in US Treasury yields, which closed at an annual high. At the same time, he hinted at the possibility of premature tightening of monetary policy. And although the head of the Fed stressed that the economy is far from overheating, and he does not yet see the need to raise the interest rate, the market has had a hint of a possible change in monetary policy. In response, the 10-year Treasury yields rushed up with the dollar, and the stock market rolled down. The S&P500 lost over 120 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost over 300 points. The decline in stock prices is forcing investors to seek refuge in the dollar. As a result, the DXY dollar index reached a three-month high of 91.83 on Thursday, its growth continued Friday, March 05, and the DXY exceeded 92.00 at the time of this writing. The data from the US labor market added optimism to investors. The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP) increased from 166K to 379K, with the forecast of 182K. As a result, the forecast, for which the majority (70%) of analysts voted last week, turned out to be absolutely correct: the EUR/USD pair continued its movement to the south, reaching a local bottom at 1.1895 and ending the week slightly higher, at 1.1915; - GBP/USD. Graphical analysis on D1 suggested last week a sideways movement of the pair within 1.3860-1.4240. However, the channel turned out to be narrower: it was trading in the range of 1.3860-1.4000 until Thursday. And then, thanks to the statement of the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, the dollar began to grow stronger, and the GBP/USD pair, having broken through the lower border of the channel, dropped to the horizon of 1.3775. The last chord of the five-day period was set at the level of 1.3840; - USD/JPY. The multi-month downtrend of this pair was stopped on January 6, it reversed and moved north for almost all of 2021. When making a forecast for the last week, a third of the experts sided with the bears, a third took a neutral position, and a third voted for the growth of the pair. And even fewer experts agreed that it would be able to reach the zone 108.00-108.50, they were only 25%. And they were right: the week's high was recorded at 108.60, followed by a slight bounce down and a finish at 108.35. The reason for the rise of the pair is still the same: against the background of the growth in the yield of American bonds, which outstrips the yield on Japanese securities, investors get rid of such a protective asset with a negative interest rate as the yen. Along with the Japanese currency, gold and the Swiss franc are also particularly affected. In addition, the mentioned statement by Jerome Powell added fuel to the fire, after which the USD/JPY pair reached an eight-month high; - cryptocurrencies. There is good news for the bulls: Bitcoin hasn't dropped below $43,000. But there is good news for the bears too: Bitcoin has not gone above $52,000. Having drawn a sinusoid, the BTC/USD chart returned on the afternoon of Friday, March 05 to where it started seven days ago. The question of whether this is a correction or the beginning of a new "crypto-winter" remains open. The news background looks quite controversial as well. Leading payment systems such as Mastercard, Visa and PayPal are playing on the side of the bulls, seeking to attract the "crypto generation". Skrill and Neteller are doing the same. The Opera browser has been enriched with new algorithms that will allow users to perform transactions with many popular cryptocurrencies. Another Opera feature would be creating a digital wallet without going to third-party sites. Such a giant as Google also turned to cryptocurrencies: the Google Finance platform added a tab for monitoring the prices of digital assets. User activity is growing. The trading volume on cryptocurrency exchanges in February exceeded $1 trillion. Such numbers were achieved for the first time in history, according to experts. Even during the first bitcoin rally, the trading volume reached only $650 billion. According to experts of the analytical platform Block Research, large investors prefer to carry out transactions from one account to another through third-party services in order to maintain complete anonymity. Therefore, the real number of transactions can even be twice the official amount. However, not everything is as rosy as it seems at first glance. We already wrote that regulators can (and most likely will) become the main problem for digital assets in 2021. According to analyst Sven Henrich, the head of the USA Ministry of Finance janet Yellen has actually declared war on bitcoin. Her announcement led to a massive profit taking by the whales on February 21-23, and a sharp 23% drop in bitcoin quotes. And now the North American Association of Securities Administrators (NASAA) has published an annual list of the most dangerous financial products, calling cryptocurrencies the top investment risk this year. In the framework of the struggle of states for control over financial flows, one should not forget about the imminent appearance of the digital yuan, which can deal a serious blow to bitcoin. The United States and a number of other countries do not exclude the possibility of launching their own digital currencies (CBDC) as well. In the meantime, as we wrote above, the market is at a crossroads. The total market capitalization for the week grew very slightly: from $1,410 billion to $1,444 billion. And the Crypto Fear & Greed Index left the neutral zone (55) again and headed towards the overbought zone, reaching 77 points out of 100 possible. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. Judging by the latest indicators, the US economy is doing much better. Vaccinations are in full swing, the labor market is recovering, and GDP in the first quarter is ready to grow by almost 10%. According to Jerome Powell, consumer prices may even slightly exceed the target level of 2% as early as this summer. However, there is still a long way to a complete recovery. It is this weekend, March 06-07, that the Senate will begin voting on amendments to the budget. And if legislators approve them, US citizens will receive a new gratuitous aid of $1,400 per person, and the overall stimulus package (QE) will amount to $1.9 trillion. This injection of almost 2 trillion new dollars into the market could cause a serious weakening of the US currency and a return of risk appetite for investors. In this case, the sell-off of shares will stop and stock indices will go up again. When making a forecast for the coming days, most experts (60%) do not exclude the continuation of the downtrend and the fall of the EUR/USD pair to the zone 1.1800. 100% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators on H4 and D1 are looking down. But the remaining 25% is already signaling that the pair is oversold. The picture changes radically with the transition to monthly and quarterly forecasts. Here 70% of analysts expect that the scales will tilt towards the euro after the $1.9 trillion in aid appears on the US market, and the pair will go up. Resistance levels are 1.2025, 1.2060, 1.2170, 1.2200 and 1.2270. As for the events of the coming week, the publication of data on GDP in the Eurozone on Tuesday March 09, statistics on the US consumer market on Wednesday March 10, and Germany on Friday March 12, as well as the decision of the European Central Bank on the interest rate on Thursday March 11should be considered. According to forecasts, the rate is likely to remain unchanged, at zero. Therefore, the press conference of the ECB leadership, which will be held on the same day, will be of greater interest; - GBP/USD. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak on Monday, March 8, where he intends to outline the main parameters of the country's monetary policy while it tries to cope with the financial damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. According to ING analysts, “overall, fiscal support should highlight the constructive prospects for the pound sterling in the second quarter of 2021. Further fiscal assistance will contribute to economic recovery and make the pound sterling a leader in the currency market of the G10 countries." But until this happens, 50% of analysts expect that the GBP/USD pair will break through the support in the 1.3775-1.3800 area and rush to the 1.3600-1.3760 zone. This forecast is supported by 85% of trend indicators and 100% of oscillators on H4, but only 65% of their “colleagues” on D1. 25% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on both timeframes, expect the pair to grow, and another 25% have taken a neutral position. At the same time, as in the case of EUR/USD and for the same reasons, the number of bulls' supporters increases to 60% when switching to the monthly forecast. The resistance levels are 1.3900, 1.3950, 1.4000, 1.4085 and 1.4185, the target is the February 24 high of 1.4240; - USD/JPY. After the pair literally soared by 215 points last week and reached eight-month highs, it is clear that 100% of the trend indicators are colored green. But as for the oscillators, 35% are already signaling fully that it is overbought. Graphical analysis also points to the south. Many traders are afraid to open both long and short positions in such a situation. As for the experts, the scales have already begun to tilt in favor of a downward correction: there are 50% of bears' supporters now. 25% expect the USD/JPY pair to continue to rise, and another 25% remain neutral. In the transition from a weekly to a monthly forecast, 80% of analysts are already expecting the pair to decline and return to the 105.00 zone. Support levels are 108.00, 106.70, 106.10 and 105.70; Resistance - 109.80; - cryptocurrencies. A Glassnode study found that only 4 million bitcoins are in free float on the market. The third halving in May 2020 halved the miners' reward for the mined block from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. It further enhances the shortage of coins in the market. And as you know, it is the limited emission of bitcoin that is one of its main advantages over gold and fiat currencies. “Suddenly, buying bitcoin is no longer insignificant or risky,” wrote Mike Novogratz, head of Galaxy Digital crypto bank. On the contrary, it has become risky not to have BTC in the portfolio when central banks continue to print money. We don't have enough time to hire sales managers to reach all the institutional clients who want to understand and participate in the market." Even such a supporter of gold as Euro Pacific Capital president Peter Schiff has supported Novogratz. It was just recently, that this bitcoin skeptic called bitcoin the largest bubble in history and unflatteringly spoke about the mental abilities of cryptocurrency investors. And now he has admitted his mistake. “When I first heard about bitcoin, I didn't think that smart investors would be stupid enough to buy bitcoin. I was wrong," Schiff wrote. Going back tothe head of Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, we should note that he has dramatically changed the forecast for the BTC rate for the end of 2021 upwards. “It feels like,” says the banker, “we’ll stay for a bit between $42,000 and $60,000, and then see the next big jump to $100,000. I will not be surprised if we reach this mark by the end of this year." An unexpected conspiracy forecast was given by an expert in the field of competitive intelligence. He believes the creation and support of the Bitcoin hype for years is no coincidence. In case the American financial elite manages to convince its creditors that having bitcoins is better than dollars, it can transfer all external debt of the US to this cryptocurrency over time. "As soon as this happens, the cryptocurrency will only have to collapse, and America's gigantic debt will actually be zeroed," the expert reflects. Time will tell whether it is true or not. In the meantime, events in the US stock market play one of the leading roles in influencing bitcoin. Recall that about a year ago, the fall in the stock market due to the panic around the COVID-19 pandemic provoked a collapse of the cryptocurrency market. And in conclusion, another funny crypto life hack. We have already talked about an American fortune teller who predicts bitcoin rates by observing the movement of the planets. There was also a story about another resident of the United States who placed a mining farm in the trunk of his BMW. The farm receives energy from the car's battery, to which it is connected using a DC inverter, which allows the owner to mine cryptocurrency while the car is moving. And now a gamer and crypto enthusiast from China named Yifan Gu has become known. He managed to bypass the technical limitations for cryptocurrency mining, set in the Sony PlayStation 5, and adapted this game console for Ethereum mining, gaining a profitability of about $50 per week. Earlier, Yifan Gu adapted his MacBook Air with Apple M1 chip for mining this leading altcoin. However, at the ETH current rate, you can earn only $0.14 in one day on the MacBook Air. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 CryptoNews - The price of bitcoin at the moment is most correlated with real estate prices, and in the future, bitcoin will become similar to low-risk instruments like bonds and will enter the recommended portfolio of investors. This was announced by the head of ARK Investment Cathie Wood on CNBC. “I think the first cryptocurrency will behave like fixed income markets,” Wood said. “We have survived a 40-year bond bull market. And we won't be surprised if this new asset class becomes part of the investment portfolio. Perhaps it will be 60% stocks, 20% bonds and 20% cryptocurrency.” Renowned bitcoin critic Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, called Wood's predictions "outrageous." - The US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) sent out letters to cryptocurrency holders demanding to pay off large debts to the state. And now, according to Forbes, this agency has launched Hidden Treasure operation to search for residents who hide their income from transactions with digital assets. According to IRS legal counsel Carolyn Shank, the agency is working with private contractors to identify clear signs of violations. "We see you," Shank added menacingly. - One of the oldest private banks in Germany, Donner & Reuschel, headquartered in Hamburg, is going to add services for the purchase and storage of crypto assets for its clients. Due to high demand, it is planned to launch these services “as soon as possible,” the bank said in a statement. Donner & Reuschel was founded in 1798 and manages assets worth about $10.7 billion. The bank plans to "intensively engage" in asset tokenization in the future in order to keep up with changes in the financial industry. “We are observing the digital asset market and are convinced of the potential of blockchain, including in relation to traditional securities transactions,” said Marcus Vitt, spokesman for the bank's board. - The entrepreneur and creator of the famous antivirus, John McAfee, has been charged with fraud and money laundering, and now faces up to 100 years in prison. The case will be considered by the Court of the Southern District of New York. Recall that McAfee was arrested in Spain in October 2020, and now he is awaiting extradition to the United States. Another person involved in the process will be the executive advisor of the cryptocurrency team of the entrepreneur Jimmy Gail Watson Jr., who has been recently taken into custody. The first charge concerns the manipulative appreciation of altcoins using the Pump&Dump scheme on Twitter. McAfee posted tweets advertising certain coins, leading to an active increase in their price. When quotes peaked, members of McAfee's team sold these altcoins and took profits. Another issue concerns undisclosed fees for participating in the ICO promotion. “McAfee and Watson made nearly $2 million by using social media to perform Pump&Dump schemes. They also used the same platform to promote tokens without disclosing information about the reward received from the ICO organizers. This brought them another $11 million,” the prosecutor's office said in a statement. - Bitcoin is becoming an increasingly popular asset among a wide variety of categories of investors and is gradually replacing gold in their portfolios. This is stated in the February report of analysts from Bloomberg. “The process of replacing gold in [investors'] portfolios with bitcoin is accelerating and we are seeing the risks decrease. In 2020, the cryptocurrency became attractive because of the decrease in its volatility compared to the previous year,” the authors of the report emphasize. The shrinking range of price fluctuations signals that bitcoin has actually become an alternative to traditional investment assets. Bloomberg team is also positive about the further rate of the main cryptocurrency. After the coin broke above $50,000, it got the opportunity to test higher values. Demand for this asset is increasing, and its macroeconomic indicators are improving. According to Bloomberg analysts' forecasts, bitcoin could reach $100,000 this year. In the long term, the growth of its value will also continue, according to the authors of the study. - According to venture capital pioneer Tim Draper, Netflix could be the next big company to invest in bitcoin. Since bitcoin can provide a hedge against the inflationary risks associated with dollar, Draper doesn't rule out cryptocurrencies as the perfect solution for someone like Netflix founder Reed Hastings. Hastings is a great innovator with a lot of creative ideas, and since he has power in the company, he may decide to invest some of his funds in bitcoin. According to Draper, Google may follow suit, but it is more likely that companies like Google, Facebook or Apple will want to issue their own cryptocurrencies without being tied to bitcoin. - The forecast, according to which the bitcoin rate may reach $1 million or more in the next 10 years, was announced by the CEO of the Kraken crypto exchange Jesse Powell. In a dialogue with Bloomberg reporters, he also said that bitcoin could eventually replace all major fiat currencies that are not backed by gold and other precious metals. “Right now we are only guessing, but if you value bitcoin in dollars, then you must understand that its value tends to infinity. True "believers" will tell you that it will reach the Moon, Mars and eventually become the world's currency," said the head of Kraken. However, he agreed that there is a risk of sharp market fluctuations, and that prices could "rise or fall by 50% any day." Therefore, the term of an investment in bitcoin, according to Powell, should be at least five years. - According to a number of futuristic experts, bitcoin will continue to grow, but due to its architecture, it will eventually burst and depreciate. The rise in the cost of bitcoin is hardwired into its mathematics, according to Singularity University expert Evgeny Kuznetsov, and the cost of electricity required for mining is constantly growing. Already, this process consumes energy comparable to that of the Netherlands. At some point, it will require the energy of the whole world to generate just one unit. That is, there is a limitation for the growth of bitcoin: it is blocked by the amount of energy consumption. But this will not happen soon, not in a year or two, and until that moment it will be possible to make huge capital on it, the futurologist believes. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 February 2021 Results: NordFX Traders Name Gold and Bitcoin as Leaders Again NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in February. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed. The first line in the rating of the most successful traders has been taken once again by a client from Vietnam, account No. 1416XXX, who received a profit of USD 29,880 on trades, most of which were carried out in pairs with gold (XAU/USD) and bitcoin (BTC/USD). The same trader was in the lead a month ago with an income of 83.598 USD obtained on transactions with the same two trading instruments. The second place has been taken by a client from China, account No. 1536XXX. The client earned 23,640 USD in February, and their earnings were also based on operations with gold. But the trader who took the third step of the podium (account No. 1503XXX) used a variety of trading instruments (GBP/AUD, AUD/NZD, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD, CAD/CHF and AUD/USD), and achieved no less impressive success. Their profit for February was USD 20,716. According to the results of the shortest month of the year, a competition unfolded among signal providers in the CopyTrading service. Let's list the TOP-3 of February: RichieFX-EA (profit 188%, maximum drawdown 49%), GOLD RUSH Inc. (profit 129%, drawdown 51%) and VN.NO1 (profit 110%, drawdown 31%). As for PAMM, the past month was not as successful, but if you look at the entire investment period, then, for example, the manager under the nickname WyseTrader9711 showed a profit of 61.45% with a maximum drawdown of 15.7%, and the results of the ProCapital manager were 24.9% with a drawdown of only 9.8%, which is several times higher than the income on bank deposits in USD. Commission fees of NordFX IB-partners almost doubled in February compared to January, which indicates a serious growth in trading activity. The TOP 3 of the month is as follows: - the largest commission, USD 17282, was credited to a partner from India, account No.1527xxx; - next is a partner from Sri lanka, account number 1483xxx, who received 11.749 USD; - and, finally, a partner from China, account No. 1336xxx, who received 11.233 USD as a reward, closes the top three. Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 15-19, 2021 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. Recall that the head of the Fed Jerome Powell literally brought down the American stock markets with his speech on February 4. Powell stayed indifferent to the surge in US Treasury yields, which closed at an annual high. At the same time, he hinted at the possibility of premature tightening of monetary policy. And although the head of the Fed stressed that the economy is far from overheating, and he does not yet see the need to raise the interest rate, the market has had a hint of a possible change in monetary policy. In response, the Treasury yields rushed up with the dollar, and the stock market rolled down. The S&P500 lost over 120 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost over 300 points. And then, everything changed on Tuesday March 09. Strong growth in technology stocks, positive statistics from the labor market, growth in household assets and a bill signed by US President Joe Biden on a new stimulus package for $1.9 trillion pushed the American stock market up. The S&P500 index not only fully recovered from losses, but also updated its historical high, reaching the mark of 3.960. As for long-term treasuries, their profitability, on the contrary, has stabilized. And this despite the fact that the volume of submitted applications exceeded the volume of the issue by 2.38 times, and foreign investors purchased about 20% of securities of the total volume of $38 billion. The EUR/USD pair reached a height of 1.1990 on Thursday March 11 due to these factors. However, it failed to reach the 1.2000 level. The fall of the pair and the weakening of the euro was facilitated by the statement of the ECB management on the increase in the rate of buying bonds under the PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program). But it turned out to be not convincing enough, and nothing was said about scaling up the PEPP. As a result, the fall of the pair was insignificant, and it ended the week at the level of 1.1950; - GBP/USD. More and more experts are wondering if the pound has passed its high on February 24. Is it time to consolidate with the dollar? The British currency has shown an impressive growth of 2830 points against its American “colleague” (from 1.1410 to 1.4240) starting from the third decade of March 2020. And we have been observing the sideways movement of the GBP/USD pair along the Pivot Point of 1.3900 for the last two weeks. The upper border of the trading range is drawn quite clearly: this is the resistance at 1.4000. Two support levels can be considered as the lower one: the nearest one - 1.3850 and the next one - 1.3775. The GBP/USD chart of the last week is very similar to the EUR/USD chart. This suggests that both the pound and the euro are not so much independent players in the market now as hostages of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy and rates on US government bonds. Having started the five-day week at 1.3840, the pair was moving within the above range for the whole week, and set the last chord at 1.3925; - USD/JPY. The yen has passed one milestone after another in recent weeks, and the USD/JPY pair reached the eight-month highs. Many traders are afraid to open both long and short positions in such a situation. On the one hand, the pair was already overbought, and on the other, it could still fly further upward by inertia. This is what happened in fact: it first rose to the level of 109.25, then a correction to 108.35 followed, and a new rise to the horizon of 109.00, where the pair ended the working week; - cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin peaked at $58,340 on February 21, after which it pulled back to $43,160, shrinking by 26%. According to Material Indicators, this decline was used by whales and institutions to buy assets from small investors. For example, the number of orders for the purchase of BTC in the amount from $0.1 million to $1 million reached record values on the Binance crypto exchange. And now, twenty days later, on March 12, Bitcoin broke the $58,000 bar again. However, at the time of writing the review, It could not update the historical high, stopping at $58,240 The BTC/USD pair rose last week amid the rise in the US stock market. Although, most likely, this is only a formal reason, and not a real reason for the activation of the bulls. It was clear that they would definitely make an attempt to rise above $60,000. And the only question was when it would happen. According to CryptoQuant, the demand for bitcoins continues to grow, and their number on exchanges has fallen to a two-year low. As Bloomberg experts point out in their February report, bitcoin is becoming an increasingly popular asset among a wide variety of investors and is gradually replacing gold from their portfolios. According to the authors of the report, the reduction in the range of price fluctuations signals that the main cryptocurrency has actually become an alternative to traditional investment assets. The overall capitalization of the crypto market is also committed to new heights, along with bitcoin. It grew from $1444 billion to $1756 billion over the week. And now the volume of $2 trillion will become an important psychological level for it. Interestingly, despite the weekly growth of the BTC/USD pair by 20%, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, on the contrary, fell from 77 to 70, which may indicate the general bullish mood of the market. And another interesting observation. Bitcoin's market dominance has declined from 70.4% to 61.4% since early 2021. The indicators of altcoins from the TOP-10 have also gone down or remained at the same levels. But the total capitalization of smaller tokens has risen from 10.3% to 14.4%. It is unlikely that these coins can arouse the interest of large investors. Therefore, such statistics can only indicate that players have begun to use them more actively for short-term speculation. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR / USD A meeting of the US Federal Reserve will take place on March 16-17. We are waiting for the Summary of Economic Forecasts from the Open Market Committee (FOMC), the decision on the interest rate, commentary on monetary policy and a press conference by the Fed management following the meeting. The interest rate is likely to remain unchanged at 0.25%. Therefore, the regulator's forecasts will be of particular interest. High expectations will once again highlight the gap between the pace of economic recovery in the US and the Eurozone. Investors will also be concerned about the possibility of tightening monetary policy and the attitude of the Fed management to changes in government bond yields. Consolidation of 10-year yields in the 1.5-1.6% range will help the stock market and push the EUR/USD pair above 1.2000. So far, the advantage is on the side of the dollar. 70% of experts, supported by graphical analysis, 85% of oscillators and 80% of trend indicators on D1, expect the pair to drop to the 1.1800-1.1850 zone. Support here is still the 200-day SMA at 1.1826. The nearest support is 1.1900. An alternative view is held by 30% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis on H4. As for the technical indicators on this time frame, their readings are still confusing. Note that when switching from a weekly to a monthly forecast, the number of experts supporting bulls increases to 60%. Resistance levels are 1.2025, 1.2060, 1.2170, 1.2200 and 1.2270; - GBP/USD. In addition to the meeting of the US Fed, a meeting of the Bank of England will take place on Thursday March 18. It is likely that its results will not affect investors as much as those of their peers on the other side of the Atlantic. However, information on the course of the British economic recovery and its prospects will certainly be given. The market will also be concerned about what is going on in relations with the European Union after Brexit. The opinions of experts are divided equally at the moment. A third of them, together with graphical analysis on H4, believe that the pair will hold within the 1.3775-1.4000 trading range. Another third, supported by graphical analysis on D1, expects a rise to the February 24 high of 1.4240. And finally, the remaining third is waiting for the pair to fall to the 1.3600 zone; - USD/JPY. It should become clear in the coming week whether the Japanese currency will stop its decline, and the USD/JPY pair - its rapid rise. There are three determinant factors: the yield of American bonds, the US Federal Reserve meeting and the meeting of the Bank of Japan on Friday, March 19, at which it should determine its policy for the near future. The rise in US bond yields is pushing the yen down, and the Japanese regulator is expected to react to this catastrophic collapse. Whether the BOJ will insist on controlling the yield curve is open for now. It should be noted that the last fall in the yen and the growth of USD/JPY on March 12 took place at increased volumes. This indicates that the interest of major players in the continuation of the uptrend of the pair has still not dried up. The trend can be reversed down by either the consolidation of the yield on US securities, or an active sale of risky assets. But at the time of this writing, 55% of experts expect that the pair will still be able to rise to the 109.50-110.00 zone. 20% are in favor of sideways movement and 25% are for the fall of the pair. Almost 100% of the trend indicators on both H4 and D1 are painted red. Among the oscillators on H4, there are 80% of those, but on D1, 35% are already giving signals that the pair is overbought, which indicates an imminent possible downward correction. In the transition from a weekly to a monthly forecast, 80% of analysts are already expecting the pair to decline and return to the 105.00 zone,. Support levels are 108.35, 106.65, 106.10 and 105.70; - cryptocurrencies. Recall that in early March, the head of the crypto bank Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz sharply changed the forecast for the BTC rate for the end of 2021. “It feels like,” said the banker, “we’ll stay for a bit between $42,000 and $60,000, and then see the next big jump to $100,000. The Bloomberg team is also positive about the further rate of the main cryptocurrency. "After the coin broke above $50,000, it got the opportunity to test higher values. Demand for this asset is increasing, and its macroeconomic indicators are improving,” they say in their February report. According to Bloomberg analysts, bitcoin will be able to reach $100,000 this year, and its value will also continue to rise in the long term. So how long will bitcoin hang out, in Mike Novogratz's words, between $42,000 and $60,000? Or are we on the eve of the big jump? A number of experts are pessimistic. As the reason, they point to miners who are buying more and more video cards on new chips, which leads to higher prices and a shortage of such cards on the market. This situation is somewhat reminiscent of the end of December 2017 - January 2018, when the mining boom ended with a market collapse, the destruction of many miners and the onset of a crypto winter. There may not be a new winter this time, experts say, but strong frosts are not entirely out of the question. In the longer term, electricity costs for mining will also hinder the growth of digital assets. They are constantly growing, and this process consumes energy comparable to that of a country like the Netherlands already. At some point, it will require the energy of the whole world to generate just one unit. And this, according to futurologists from Singularity University, will become an insurmountable obstacle for the crypto market. However, if there are bear pessimists, then there will certainly be bull optimists. So, according to the head of ARK Investment Cathie Wood, the price of bitcoin is most correlated with real estate prices at the moment. But in the future, she believes, bitcoin will become similar to low-risk instruments like bonds and will enter the recommended portfolio of investors. “I think the first cryptocurrency will behave like fixed income markets,” Wood said to CNBC. “We have survived a 40-year bond bull market. And we won't be surprised if this new asset class becomes part of the investment portfolio. Perhaps it will be 60% stocks, 20% bonds and 20% cryptocurrency.” The forecast, according to which the bitcoin rate may reach $1 million or more in the next 10 years, was announced by the CEO of the Kraken crypto exchange Jesse Powell. “Right now we are only guessing, but if you value bitcoin in dollars, then you must understand that its value tends to infinity", he said. In a dialogue with Bloomberg reporters, the head of Kraken also said that bitcoin could eventually replace all major fiat currencies that are not backed by gold and other precious metals. However, he agreed that there is a risk of sharp market fluctuations, and that prices could "rise or fall by 50% any day." Therefore, according to Powell, when investing in bitcoin, it is necessary to be ready to keep it in your portfolio for at least five years. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 CryptoNews - Co-founder of Oaktree Capital investment company Howard Marks, with a fortune of $2.1 billion, has dramatically changed his attitude towards bitcoin. Marks called crypto currencies "unfounded fads" in 2017 The investor said that there are many things in the world that have no intrinsic value, but people want to possess them. And bitcoin is one of those things. Now the billionaire has admitted that those words were an “knee-jerk reaction” to innovation about which he had not yet had a clear idea. Now the head of Oaktree Capital realized that bitcoin really has a lot of potential and even described the advantages of the first cryptocurrency. The most important advantage of Bitcoin according to Marks is the ability to trade it 24 hours a day while maintaining confidentiality. In addition, bitcoin has a limited supply of 21 million coins, which increases demand for them and contributes to a rise in prices. The same cannot be said for the US dollar and other fiat currencies, which are printed in huge quantities by central banks, Marks noted. - A 38-year-old hairdresser was arrested in Romania on suspicion of stealing about $620,000 in cryptocurrency. Law enforcers found out that the detainee not only worked as a hairdresser, but also was engaged in the creation of malicious software. He hacked a large money transfer operator with its help and transferred $620 thousand to his own account in several dozen transactions. - "Hyperinflationary collapse" of national currencies will lead to the growth of bitcoin to $220,000 this year. This is the opinion of Max Kaiser, a former trader, TV presenter and founder of the investment company Heisenberg Capital. Among other things, Kaiser is a longtime supporter of bitcoin and is known for his criticism of American economic and political models. Last summer, when the cryptocurrency was trading for about $10 thousand, he predicted its growth to $100 thousand. And, as it turned out, this was not the most daring prediction of the TV presenter. Kaiser believes that the advantages of bitcoin in global payments make banks useless. “$5 trillion a day in the foreign exchange market can be completely replaced by bitcoin. We have realized that now it is possible to send currency from country to country instantly and practically free of charge," Kaiser said. - Digital currencies have reached the world of sports. US fans of the Oakland Athletics California baseball team can now pay for private lodges in bitcoin. The 2021 Home Team Six-Seater Lodge Pass can be purchased for $64,800 or 1 BTC. Given the fact that at the time of writing the review, bitcoin is trading at around $55,000, it is more profitable to pay for a ticket in cryptocurrency. The president of the club said in a comment to Sportico that the management of Oakland Athletics took such a step due to the growing popularity of cryptocurrency in California. “It is also a kind of check to see if we want to do this in other areas of our business,” he said. - The Indian authorities will consider a bill prohibiting operations with cryptocurrencies and introducing criminal and administrative liability for miners and traders. This is reported by Reuters with reference to an unnamed high-ranking official. The document instructs citizens to liquidate their digital assets within six months. After this period, it is proposed to levy fines from the owners. In the future, prison terms are provided for the possession, release, production, trading and transfer of crypto assets. The official refused to disclose the amount of the fines and the terms of imprisonment. However, according to him, the discussion of the document is at the final stage. There is no official data, but according to industry estimates, about 8 million investors in India own digital assets totaling $1.4 billion at the moment. - The author of the famous book Rich Dad Poor Dad Robert Kiyosaki has called to buy gold and bitcoin. He made this statement after the decision of the US government to allocate another $1.9 trillion to support the economy. The economist does not exclude that the dollar will be in a state of devaluation after such large-scale injections, as a result of which many investors will begin to switch to digital assets. At the end of last year, the author of the bestselling book stated that the cost of bitcoin would soon reach $50 thousand. And it happened about a month later. A year earlier, Kiyosaki predicted that the US currency would face serious problems amid the pandemic. As a result, the dollar did accelerate the drawdown, and many stock market indices fell to lows. - According to JPMorgan, the volume of retail investment in bitcoin in the first quarter of 2021 exceeded the investment of institutional investors, who reduced the volume of cryptocurrency purchases. Thus, retail investors purchased over 187,000 BTC tokens, while institutional purchases amounted to approximately 172,684 BTC. According to JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the decline in institutional investment may be one of the reasons bitcoin has not been able to gain a foothold above $60,000 so far. All the attention is focused on the growth of retail investment now, especially given the new round of direct payments to US citizens as part of the economic stimulus program. - According to a study by Mizuho Securities, of the $380 billion that US citizens will receive in the form of economic assistance, about 10% can be spent on the purchase of two types of assets: bitcoin and stocks. The study found that two out of five Americans who expect to receive checks in the coming days intend to use some of these funds for investment. According to Dan Dolev, Managing Director of Mizuho Securities, bitcoin is expected to account for 60% of the total investment, which could add about 3% to the market capitalization of the cryptocurrency. - Bitcoin has become the most profitable investment in the last 10 years and surpassed all asset classes by at least 10 times, providing an average annual return of 230%. Charlie Bilello, founder and CEO of Compound Capital Advisors wrote about this achievement. The Nasdaq 100 came in second with an annualized return of 20%, followed by US stocks with a market capitalization of more than $10 billion with an annualized return of 14%. Also, studies have shown that gold has shown a meager return of 1.5% per annum since 2011, and five of the last 11 years have brought losses to this asset. The precious metal has dropped 8.5% since early 2021, according to Gold Price, much to the chagrin of an implacable bitcoin critic and gold investor, President of Euro Pacific Capital, Peter Schiff. Since 2011, BTC's combined profit has been a whopping 20 million percent. 2013 was the most successful year for bitcoin as it grew by 5507%. In addition, it is important to note that BTC has shown an annualized loss in just two years of its history: it fell 58% in 2014 and 73% in 2018. - Spencer Schiff has decided to move his entire portfolio to bitcoin. His father, the aforementioned Peter Schiff, shared this with his Twitter readers. He expressed concern about the manipulation of fragile minds during a bull rally in the cryptocurrency market. The famous bitcoin critic clarified that his son sold the remaining silver to buy the first cryptocurrency. “My son went for broke the last time bitcoin dropped below $50,000. 100% of his portfolio is now in Bitcoin. If my son has been so brainwashed, imagine how vulnerable most children are. He will "hodl" bitcoin indefinitely or go broke. " The crypto community has responded positively to the complaints of the "golden beetle", expressing confidence that investing in bitcoin will make Schiff's son richer than his father. “At least someone in your family will increase their wealth this year,” wrote Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 22 - 26, 2021 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. It has become clear following the meeting of the Open Market Committee (FOMC) that the US Federal Reserve does not intend to raise interest rates until at least 2023. The Fed is not going to change other parameters of the quantitative easing (QE) program either, as long as inflation in the United States is growing, the manufacturing sector is recovering, and is pulling up the service sector. The bill signed by US President Joe Biden on a new $1.9 trillion package, according to the Fed, is quite a sufficient measure to stimulate the economy at this stage. This position of the American regulator satisfied (or upset) both bulls and bears on the EUR/USD pair to the same extent, and as a result the pair spent the whole week in a narrow sideways channel with an amplitude of only 110 points, 1.1875-1.1985, and ended the trading session near the 1.1900 level; - GBP/USD. As mentioned above, the US Fed refused to adjust its monetary policy. But the management of the Bank of England refused to do the same unanimously at its meeting on Thursday March 18. According to their statement, the bank "does not intend to tighten monetary policy at least until there is clear evidence of the use of untapped potential and the achievement of the 2 percent inflation target." So, one should not expect a rise in interest rates on the pound. As a result of the identical decisions of both regulators, the GBP/USD pair continued to move sideways. Recall that last week, a third of experts voted for the growth of the pair, a third - for its fall, and the remaining third made a Solomon decision, announcing that the pair would move eastward, limiting the growth by the resistance at 1.4000, and the fall by the support at 1.3775. And this forecast turned out to be almost perfect. The fluctuations of the pair were limited to the range of 1.3800-1.4000. The last chord sounded at 1.3865; - USD/JPY. The Japanese regulator also performed in a chorus with the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. The Bank of Japan left the interest rate at the same negative level, minus 0.1%, on Friday, March 19. At the same time, it will continue to buy back long-term bonds in order to maintain the yield on its 10-year securities at near zero. The statements of the Bank's management regarding the prospects for monetary policy were also consonant vague with the statements of their colleagues from the USA and Great Britain: “we are ready for changes as needed”. It is not specified what the criteria for such "necessity" are. The result of such a “sluggish” week was the consolidation of the USD/JPY pair in an even narrower range than EUR/USD and GBP/USD. After holding in the channel 108.60-109.35 for all the five days, it finished at 108.87; - cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin renewed its all-time high once again over the past week, reaching $61,670. This was followed by a quick rollback. However, the main currency managed to stay within the upward channel, having received support at its lower border, in the $53,300-53,900 zone. This correction attracted buyers waiting for a new opportunity for their purchases, and the BTC/USD pair is trading around $58,500 on the evening of Friday March 19. One of the reasons that bitcoin has not yet been able to gain a foothold above $60,000, according to JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, was a decrease in institutional investment. Thus, the volume of retail investment in bitcoin in the first quarter of 2021 exceeded the investment of institutional investors, who reduced the volume of cryptocurrency purchases. Retail investors purchased over 187,000 BTC tokens, while institutional purchases amounted to approximately 172,684 BTC. According to Compound Capital Advisors investment company calculations, bitcoin has become the most profitable investment in the last 10 years and has surpassed all asset classes by at least 10 times, providing an average annual return of 230%. The Nasdaq 100 came in second with an annualized return of 20%, followed by US stocks with a market capitalization of more than $10 billion with an annualized return of 14%. Also, studies have shown that gold has shown a meager return of 1.5% per annum since 2011, and five of the last 11 years have brought losses to this asset. Since 2011, BTC's combined profit has been a whopping 20 million percent. 2013 was the most successful year for bitcoin as it grew by 5507%. In addition, it is important to note that BTC has shown an annualized loss in just two years of its history: it fell 58% in 2014 and 73% in 2018. All these figures are impressive for some, and they are intimidating for others. For example, the head of the Visa payment giant agreed that cryptocurrencies could become widespread over the next 5 years. In addition to JPMorgan, the largest American bank Morgan Stanley has shown loyalty to digital assets, promising to provide its large clients with the opportunity to own bitcoin. But Bank of America published the report "Little Dirty Secrets of Bitcoin" on March 17, in which it announced that this token is an exclusively speculative instrument. "Without rising prices, there is no reason to own this cryptocurrency," the report says. "The asset is impractical either as a store of value, or as a method of payment, and 95% of Bitcoin belongs to the owners of 2.4% of wallets." The bankers recalled the negative impact of BTC on the environment due to high energy costs for mining as well as the low transaction speed. Although, one can guess that it is not this that worries them most of all, but the prospect of losing a significant share of income due to the development of the crypto market. Note that the total capitalization of the crypto market over the last week increased from $1756 billion to $1805 billion. However, it could not break through the important psychological level of $2 trillion: the maximum value of $1851 billion was reached on March 14, after which the indicators fell slightly. As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it practically did not change over the week: 71 now versus 70 seven days ago. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. In general, both experts and indicators have a bearish mood. Despite the US Federal Reserve's refusal to raise interest rates until 2023, investors are still guided by a favorable economic scenario. Mass vaccinations and direct payments to US citizens should support the dollar, even though some of that $380 bn will be invested in riskier assets. Most analysts (65%) expect the dollar to strengthen in the coming week. In their opinion, the EUR/USD pair should retest the support of 1.1835. The bearish forecast is also supported by 65% of oscillators and 85% of trend indicators on time frames H4 and D1. Recall that, from the point of view of technical analysis, the support level here is still the 200-day SMA at 1.1825. In case of its breakthrough, the next targets will be 1.1800 and 1.1745. The ultimate target is the lows of September-November 2020 around 1.1600. As for the bulls, the resistance levels here are 1.1980, 1.2025, 1.2060 and 1.2100. And if the bullish forecast is supported by only 35% of experts now, the balance of forces changes in a mirror-like manner when switching to the forecast for April: it is already 65% who support the growth of the pair and only 35% are for its fall. Graphic analysis also points to the pair falling. And also, not immediately. At first, according to its readings, having fought off the zone 1.1880-1.1900, the pair should rise to the level of 1.1980, and only then go south. As for the events of the coming week, Jerome Powell's numerous speeches on March 22, 23 and 24 could be noted. However, the head of the FRS is unlikely to say anything new: everything important was already said last week. Therefore, we advise you to pay attention to the data on business activity of Markit of Germany and the Eurozone, which will be announced on Wednesday March 24. As for the American statistics, data on orders for durable goods will be published on the same day, and annual data on GDP of the United States the next day. - GBP/USD. The head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey is also scheduled to speak on March 23 and 25. And just like in the case of his colleague from overseas, Jerome Powell, no surprises from his speeches should be expected. Of interest may be: data on the UK labour market March 23, and data on business activity and consumer market of this country on March 25. It is clear that the technical indicators on the GBP/USD pair on H4 are looking to the south. However, they reflect the trend of only the last two days of the past week. As for the indicators on D1, there is complete discord: the two-week sideways trend is getting visible. Graphical analysis on both time frames also indicates a sideways trend in the trading range of a week ago - 1.3775-1.4000. There is no serious preponderance in the forecasts of experts: 45% side with the bulls, 55% side with the bears. The targets are 1.4240 and 1.3600, respectively; - USD/JPY. The further strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair is indicated by graphical analysis at both time intervals, H4 and D1. 85% of trend indicators and 65% of oscillators on D1 agree with it. The rest of the oscillators are either in the overbought zone or are already colored red. As for the experts, 55% of them expect a correction to the south, although they agree that it may be short-term. However, with the transition to monthly and quarterly forecasts, the number of supporters of the fall of the pair increases to 75%. The nearest target of the bulls is 109.50-110.00. Support levels in case the pair falls are 108.35, 106.65, 106.10 and 105.70; - cryptocurrencies. The struggle between those who believe in the bright future of cryptocurrency and those who predict its destruction continues. This is especially noticeable among large institutional investors. And their opinion depends largely on the opinion of regulators. The position of regulators in different countries is very different. For example, the Indian authorities have a bill nearly ready which prohibits operations with cryptocurrencies and introduces criminal and administrative liability for miners and traders. And the US head of the Fed Jerome Powell, on the contrary, does not deny the combination of traditional finance and cryptocurrencies. Although, of course, most likely he is pinning his hopes on the digital currency of the American Central Bank (CDBC). Note that the governments of many large countries are considering the possibility of issuing digital counterparts of their own fiat currencies. And, most likely, they do not need competitors in the form of bitcoin and top altcoins at all. So, it is possible that we will see real battles between the public and private sectors in the near future, not only at national, but also at international platforms. In the meantime, central banks continue to print unsecured money to support their economies in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. And according to the TV presenter and founder of the investment company Heisenberg Capital Max Kaiser, this will lead to a "hyperinflationary collapse" of national currencies and the growth of bitcoin to $220,000 already this year. Moreover, Kaiser believes that the advantages of bitcoin in global payments will render banks useless. As he stated, “$5 trillion a day in the foreign exchange market could be completely replaced by bitcoin.” At the moment, according to analysts at JPMorgan, the main focus is on the growth of retail investment associated with the next portion of payments to US citizens as part of the economic stimulus program. According to a study by Mizuho Securities, of the $380 billion that US citizens will receive in the form of economic assistance, about 10% can be spent on the purchase of two types of assets: bitcoin and stocks. The study found that two out of five Americans who expect to receive checks in the coming days intend to use some of these funds for investment. According to Dan Dolev, Managing Director of Mizuho Securities, bitcoin is expected to account for 60% of the total investment, which could add about 3% to the market capitalization of the cryptocurrency. Of course, 3% is a small figure. Perhaps that is why only 35% of experts believe that the main cryptocurrency will be able to steadily gain a foothold above $60,000 by the end of spring and even rise to $75,000. The majority of analysts (65%) predict bitcoin a sideways movement in the $50,000-60,000 channel. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 CryptoNews - The head of the now defunct brokerage firm Stratton Oakmont, Jordan Belfort, who was a prototype for the protagonist of the movie "The Wolf of Wall Street", admitted that he held the wrong position in relation to the bitcoin. This is reported by the Fortune magazine. Digital gold seemed to be the perfect tool for money laundering, and the former broker was sure that regulators would destroy it. Belfort remembered predicting the fall of the first cryptocurrency on a TV show in 2017. At that time, the asset was rising to the $ 19,000 mark. “I turned out to be right then,” he recalls. “But I also thought bitcoin would go away forever. It was difficult to sell and easy to buy: these are all signs of manipulation." Now, according to Jordan Belfort, the coin could rise to $100,000. - An anonymous user fell for a trick of scammers and sent 10 bitcoins to "Elon Musk". According to the BBC, the victim saw a link to Musk's alleged resource in the comments under one of his Twitter posts. After clicking on the link, he began a dialogue with the "manager." And the latter offered to invest a certain amount in "Musk's new project", which guaranteed huge profits. The “manager” promised that funds would double and return to the owner about 20 minutes after the investment. But even such a short period did not embarrass the victim, and he transferred 10 bitcoins to the scammers (more than half a million dollars at the current exchange rate). And only after the “manager” stopped communicating and the funds were never returned, the “investor” realized that he had become a victim of criminals. - The price of bitcoin can rise to $300,000, after which the growth will be replaced by a long-term decline. Bobby Lee, co-founder and former CEO of BTCC cryptocurrency exchange, said this in an interview with CNBC. “Bitcoin bull market cycles occur every four years, and the current one is a big cycle. I think that bitcoin may rise to $100,000 this summer,” he said. However, after reaching an all-time high of $300,000, even a small price decrease will cause the bubble to collapse. Lee suggested that the new crypto winter will last between two and three years. “Investors should be prepared for the fact that the value of bitcoin could fall 80-90% from its historical peak,” the entrepreneur added. - Entrepreneur John McAfee said that the US authorities are using the case against him to crack down on cryptocurrencies. “The charges against me are absolutely ridiculous. The US is using me as a scapegoat to crack down on all cryptocurrencies. This is a simple and understandable truth,” he wrote from prison. McAfee's lawyer Andrew Gordon noted that the digital asset regulation is still an emerging area for the IRS and the US Department of Justice, and McAfee's criminal tax evasion case is one of the first to involve cryptocurrencies. "It marks a turning point in the enforcement of cryptocurrency reporting," Gordon said, adding that "Mr. McAfee is firm in his innocence and we stand ready to convince the US federal courts." - The head of the US Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell questioned the qualities of the first cryptocurrency as a tool for savings and payments. During his speech at the virtual summit of the Bank for International Settlements, Powell noted the high volatility of digital assets, because of which, in his opinion, they are useless as a means of accumulation. “They are not backed by anything and are used more for speculation, so they are not particularly popular as a means of payment. Crypto assets are more likely to replace gold rather than the dollar,” Powell said. - According to a new study by analytical company Elliptic, the largest darknet market, Hydra, has a new way of exchanging cryptocurrency for fiat money. The vacuum-packed treasure with money is buried "5-20 cm underground", and the exact GPS coordinates are communicated to the buyer. The service fee is high - about 7% of the exchanged amount. “This is an interesting way to cash out, but it requires you to be in Russia. This is where many Hydra users are based,” said Elliptic CEO Tom Robinson. This same method has long been used to sell illegal substances such as drugs. And, as analysts point out, this is a rather risky way, since bandits sometimes pursue customers who are digging up the treasure and take away the "parcels". - Bitcoin has proven itself once again to be the best rescuer from the ineffective state financial system. The Turkish lira has fallen in relation to the US dollar by another 14% over the past week, as a result of which the residents of Turkey have begun to actively buy bitcoins. This is confirmed by the number of relevant requests in the Turkish segment of Google: it has almost doubled over the last weekend. - WiseMining introduced the Sato boiler based on ASIC miners, which allows you to mine bitcoins and heat water. The intermediate coolant of the boiler is a special dielectric coolant. The liquid boils and evaporates in the ASIC cooling unit, the vapor rises into the tank coil and condenses, giving off heat to the water. Condensation flows back into the cooling unit of the miner. The developers provided the possibility of connecting this water heater to the main heating system of the room. The Sato will go on sale in April 2021 and will cost $ 8,990. - Skybridge Capital CEO and former White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci claims Elon Musk owns more than $5 billion in bitcoin through Tesla, SpaceX and personally. Scaramucci gave his comment in the context of discussing the negative impact of mining on the environment. “No other living person has done more to protect the planet from climate change than Elon Musk. And the idea that he would invest in a “dirty asset” is absurd. The future of bitcoin mining is renewable energy sources,” he wrote. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Forex PAMM Service It is possible to make money on currency fluctuations not only by trading. Forex PAMM services allow even those who have no previous trading experience to profit from changes in prices of foreign currency assets. On the other hand, for a professional trader, the Forex PAMM service is an opportunity to increase the size of their trading capital. What is a PAMM account PAMM account (from English PAMM - Percent Allocation Management Module) is a special investment account connected to the account of the managing trader. The essence of its work is simple. The trader makes an offer (offer of cooperation with clearly defined conditions), and investors contribute their funds to such an account. As a result of the trading conducted by the managing trader, the profits obtained are distributed among these parties in the proportion specified in the offer. Key participants in PAMM services There are three main parties involved in investing in PAMM services: 1. Managing trader. This is a broker's client who has a certain trading experience, confirmed by statistics. 2. Investor. A person who invests their funds into the account of a managing trader. Profits from the results of managing trader's work. 3. PAMM service. This is a broker, for example, NordFX, where trading and financial settlements between the manager and the investor are carried out. It should be noted that one investor can simultaneously distribute their funds among several managers, forming an optimal investment portfolio, and one manager can accept funds from several investors at the same time. PAMM services from a manager's point of view Any trader can become a manager. To do this, you need to register with a broker, for example, NordFX, open a PAMM account, create an offer that will reflect the trader's commission, top up the account and start trading. By and large, the activities of a manager are not much different from standard trading, but there is one exception. All trader's results will be recorded and displayed for all to see in the form of detailed statistics. It is necessary so that investors can assess the potential of the manager and decide how well the manager's trading strategies are suitable for the investment. In the NordFX brokerage company, investors can evaluate a manager's trading by almost 50 different parameters that allow them to predict not only potential profit, but also possible risks. The managing trader will receive their share of the profit based on the results of their work. The rest will be distributed among all investors in the proportion specified in the offer. Moreover, all this is closely watched by the broker who provided the platform for the PAMM service, so that the trader does not have to calculate anything manually. There are no risks of conflict between the manager and investors due to miscalculations either. What is the main advantage of a PAMM account from the manager's point of view? First of all, this is an opportunity to significantly increase your income from trading on the international Forex market. In addition to their own funds, the manager will work with investors' money and receive a percentage of the profit for this. The better the trading results, the higher the profit, the more investors will invest their funds in this manager. As for the flaws, there are none. The manager conducts their usual trading, risks their own funds as usual and does not bear any additional responsibility to investors for the results of trading. If successful, the number of investors who want to join the trader will grow. However, if the manager is trading at a loss, there will be no people willing to join their account. PAMM accounts from an investor's point of view Not only those who trade on their own, but also those who, for some reason, cannot engage in trading, can make money on the international Forex market. For example, you can't make money, you don't have talent, you don't want to study, you don't have time, and so on. But even in these cases, not all is lost. The fact is that Forex offers almost limitless opportunities for earning money. It is one of the most liquid markets, with a daily turnover of trillions of US dollars, and many traders are keen to work in it. There is no supply of real assets here, and a trader can conclude a sell transaction with numerous financial instruments, even without possessing them. For an investor, the Forex market is an opportunity to generate passive income by investing their funds in successful managers. Although this type of work cannot be called completely passive. The fact is that the investor will have to perform a certain amount of analytical work. But it will be connected not with how to predict market fluctuations in currencies, but with how to correctly choose a trader who will be entrusted with managing investor's funds. What are the main advantages of investing in PAMM? There are several of them: 1. Investing in Forex through PAMM is very convenient. You, as an investor, only need to choose a suitable manager and connect to their account. 2. Full automation. You don't have to deal with any calculations and settlements. The whole process is fully automated on the broker platform. 3. Control by the broker. The risks of cheating on the part of the trader are excluded. Everything is controlled by the service that provides PAMM investment services. For example, the manager does not have access to the funds that are on the investment accounts connected to him. He or she does not have the slightest opportunity to steal investors' funds and disappear with them in an unknown direction. 4. Investors are offered a convenient investment format. The trading history and comprehensive multifactorial statistics for all managing traders are available, which allows you to evaluate their trading strategies and make competent and weighted decisions. 5. Investing in Forex using PAMM is possible without knowledge of this market. As a depositor, you do not need to dive into the intricacies of trading. All this knowledge is necessary only for the manager. 6. Possibility to create your own investment portfolio. Forex PAMM accounts make it possible for you to diversify your investments by choosing several traders with different trading styles and ratios of profit and risk. Choosing a manager or how to create your portfolio Investing through PAMM can be quite profitable. However, there are moments that require effort from those who are going to engage in such activities. The fact is that Forex PAMM accounts, including those at the NordF X broker, are a variety of managers. And the choice is not only about finding the most acceptable conditions in terms of the offer. As mentioned above, investing in the Forex market requires a thorough analysis of the trader’s statistics. There are three main types of trading strategies that managers use: aggressive, balanced, conservative. Aggressive managers usually perform well in terms of profit, which can reach hundreds or thousands of percent. But, accordingly, they have quite high risks and large drawdowns. Such accounts are more likely than others to suffer serious losses and can even lead to a complete loss of capital. Balanced managers show average income. But the risks are also relatively low. Such PAMM Forex accounts suffer losses much less often than aggressive ones. Finally, conservative accounts show low income. At the same time, investments in Forex with such managers pose the lowest risks. Such traders usually conduct their trading activities the longest, which is reflected in their history on the “showcase” of the PAMM service. Which option should one choose? This is where we come to the need to create an investment portfolio. If you plan to invest using PAMM technologies, investments are not much different from buying stocks or other instruments. Classic portfolios usually include different asset categories, both low and high-risk. When working with PAMM brokers, such as NordFX, your task is to assemble approximately the same portfolio where risks and potential returns are balanced. That is, you can invest in all the categories of managers described above, from aggressive to conservative. As a result, you will be able to get a fairly high profit with limited risks. In terms of percentage, there are many guidelines. Some experts believe that it would be ideal to allocate only 20% of the total account to aggressive accounts, and divide the rest between balanced and conservative. However, this ratio is not a must. You can determine how aggressive your portfolio will be and make calculations based on it. Some recommendations for choosing PAMM accounts And now back to the question of how to choose the most suitable Forex PAMM account. There are several important criteria to pay attention to: 1. Age of the PAMM account. This indicator is particularly important for those investors who plan to invest in aggressive strategies. The longer such managers show positive results, the more reliable they are. 2. Average monthly expected return. This indicator is made up of average monthly profits for previous periods. This way you can see how effective the trader's strategy is and what style of trading they use. 3. Maximum drawdown. This is an equally important indicator that reflects the investor's risks. The higher the maximum drawdown, the more aggressive the trader's style is, and the higher the probability of losing your funds. Important criteria for evaluation are: 1. The used leverage. Naturally, the higher it is, the greater the load on the deposit, the greater the risks. 2. Limiting risks by the managing trader. If they make up more than 30% of the deposit, the manager either does not use stop orders, or shifts or deletes them in the expectation of a price reversal. 3. The use of various aggressive wealth management systems. The most famous in this case is the Martingale, which is described in numerous textbooks and articles on Forex. Some managers indicate the use of this approach in their offers. But even if this is not the case, it is possible to understand that the manager applies a similar method by loading the deposit and increasing losses during periods of long recoilless trends in traded currency pairs. When planning to invest in a PAMM service, it is necessary to take into account the ratio of risk and return. This applies to a greater extent to those who will compose their own investment portfolios of managers. Many experts say that the profitability should always be 2-3 times higher than the risk. If the profitability is equal to the risk, you may face such a situation when after a certain period of time, your total profit will be equal to ... 0. When working with PAMM services, it is very important to establish in advance the conditions for exit, that is, the completion of work with one or another manager (at least temporarily). Various criteria can be used for this, including: 1. Exceeding the maximum drawdown. This is one of the important indicators of risk that you should focus on. It says that the trader has started to work even more aggressively and there are chances of receiving serious losses. 2. Change of the manager's trading system. This is not exactly a reason to part with the manager. Rather, it is a reason for analyzing and re-evaluating the terms of this cooperation and the volume of investments. Perhaps the trader's trading system has become more flexible and efficient than in the original version. In this case, the manager can not only remain in the portfolio, but also get a larger share of investments. However, if irrational, from your point of view, changes have been made to the system, it's time to think about stopping such cooperation. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrency Forecast for March 29-April 02, 2021 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. The dollar has periodically changed its status since the COVID-19 pandemic started, becoming either a safe haven currency or a risky asset for investors. For example, the US currency declined amid rising stock markets in November-December 2020. And since January, the dollar began to rise along with the S&P500. Now this index is in the area of its all-time high¬: 3.795. The DXY dollar index is also quoted in the area of annual highs: 92.72. The main reason for this volatility in the USD is the coronavirus situation and the US government's response to it. And the Fed threw in yet another riddle last week. Recall that it has become clear following the meeting of the Open Market Committee (FOMC) that the US Federal Reserve does not intend to raise interest rates until at least 2023. The Fed is not going to change other parameters of the quantitative easing (QE) program either. The bill signed by US President Joe Biden on a new $1.9 trillion package, according to the Fed, is quite a sufficient measure to stimulate the economy. Just a few days later, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the regulator would gradually phase out $120 billion in monthly asset purchases from the moment the US economy almost fully recovers. And this, according to forecasts of the Fed itself could happen this summer. So, it turns out that the Government and the Senate may start a debate on winding down QE in the near future. But what about the information that the Biden Administration is now discussing another new package of fiscal stimulus for another $3.0 trillion? The market "sided" with Jerome Powell this time, and the dollar continued to strengthen its positions. As predicted by the main forecast, which was voted for by the majority of analysts (65%), the EUR/USD pair went down, broke through the support at the 200-day SMA at 1.1825, and dropped to the 1.1760 horizon. This was followed by a slight rebound and a finish at 1.1790; - GBP/USD. After a two-week stay in the sideways channel 1.3775-1.4000, the widespread strengthening dollar pulled the pair down. 55% of the experts were on the side of the bears, and they were right. The GBP/USD pair reached the local bottom at 1.3670 on Thursday, March 25, after which it returned to the lower border of the side channel, which turned from support to resistance. The last chord of the week sounded near it, at the level of 1.3790; - USD/JPY. The large-scale correction of the pair to the south never happened. Just 50 points were enough for the pair: having dropped to the level of 108.40, it turned around and went north again, following the strengthening dollar. The nearest target of the bulls was designated the height of 110.00, and the pair almost reached it: the week's high was fixed at 109.85. After that, it declined slightly and completed the working five days at 109.67; - cryptocurrencies. The forecast for the past week, which was supported by the majority of experts, was not most optimistic for the bulls. It assumed the cessation of growth, the breakdown of bitcoin's lower boundary of the upward channel and its lateral movement in the range of $50,000-60,000. Unfortunately for investors, this is exactly what happened. The BTC/USD pair was at a height of $60,000 on March 20, but it found a local bottom at around $50,290 on Thursday March 25. And if the fall in bitcoin was 16%, then some of the top altcoins lost about 25% in price. One of the few that won was ripple. Starting at $0.4652 seven days before, it peaked at $0.5955 on March 22, and was trading at $0.5450 by the evening of Friday March 26. In general, as we predicted, the crypto market turned out to be overheated. Elon Musk's statement that bitcoins accepted as payment for Tesla cars would no longer be converted into dollars did not help it either. such information could have pushed the market high up not so long ago, but now it has given only a small short-term impulse. According to Skybridge Capital CEO and former White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci, Tesla has about $1.5 billion in BTC at the moment. In total, Elon Musk owns little more than $5 billion in bitcoins through Tesla, SpaceX and personally. Perhaps this is no longer enough, and bitcoin needs more powerful locomotives than Tesla or MicroStrategy to move the market up. But just a few words from regulators such as the US Fed are enough to push it down. The head of the US Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell questioned the qualities of the first cryptocurrency as a tool for savings and payments. During his speech at the virtual summit of the Bank for International Settlements, he noted the high volatility of digital assets, because of which, in his opinion, they are useless as a means of accumulation. “They are not backed by anything and are used more for speculation, so they are not particularly popular as a means of payment. Crypto assets are more likely to replace gold rather than the dollar,” Powell said. The fall of BTC/USD was evidently affected by the fall of the S&P500, with which such a risk asset as “digital gold” correlates more and more. Traders have closed about 240,000 positions over the past few days, and the total capitalization of the crypto market has decreased from $1805 billion to $1,680 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index moved from 71 to the central zone during the week and is at 54, which is flat. However, it is possible that this is only a lull before the storm. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. There are three main factors on the side of the American currency. The first is the successful vaccination of the population, including not only the results already achieved, but also the promise of President Biden to vaccinate 200 million US residents in the first 100 days of his stay in the White House. The second factor is the growing attractiveness of government bonds for foreign investors. And the third factor is the strength of the US economy, which is capable of lifting the economies of many other countries along with itself. Europe has none of these factors. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos did say that if vaccination in the Eurozone increases sharply by the summer, then Europe will face a sharp economic rise in Q3 and Q4. But these are just words. At the moment, 70% of experts expect the dollar to continue strengthening and the EUR/USD pair to decline to the 1.1640-1.1700 zone. The ultimate target is the lows of September-November 2020 around 1.1600. This forecast is supported by 85% of trend indicators on H4 and 100% on D1, as well as 75% of oscillators on D1. The remaining 25% give signals that the pair is oversold. Note that graphical analysis indicates that the euro may strengthen to 1.1880 in the coming days on both time frames, and the pair will go south only after that. It should also be noted that when switching from a weekly to a monthly forecast, it is already 60% of analysts who vote for the growth of the EUR/USD pair. The targets are 1.2000 and 1.2200. As for the events of the coming week, the release of data on the consumer markets in Germany on March 30 and the Eurozone on March 31 should be considered, as well as data on the US labor market on Wednesday March 31 (ADP report) and Friday April 02 (NFP). The speech of U.S. President Joe Biden on March 31 is also of interest. Markets will wait for signals from him regarding the steps that his administration will take to speed up the recovery of the country's economy; - GBP/USD. We will receive UK GDP data for Q4 2020 on Wednesday, the last day of March. According to forecasts, the indicator will remain at the previous level of 1%. This is unlikely to add optimism to investors, but it will not upset them either. Therefore, 50% of them vote for the sideways trend, 40% for the strengthening of the dollar and only 10% for the strengthening of the British pound. The technical analysis readings are as follows. On H4: 50% of the oscillators point to the north, 50% to the south. The trend indicators have a similar pattern. D1 is dominated by red. 65% of oscillators and 70% of trend indicators are colored red. The nearest support levels are 1.3760, 1.3700, 1.3670, resistance levels are 1.3820, 1.3900, 1.3960. The targets are 1.4000 and 1.3600, respectively; - USD/JPY. The pair reached a nine-month high at 109.85 last week, showing an impressive increase of almost 730 points over the past three months. This suggests that such traditional safe havens, which is the yen, are now of little interest to investors. It is unlikely that the Tankan index will greatly affect the market sentiment. Published by the Bank of Japan, this index reflects general business conditions for large manufacturing companies. Tankan is an economic indicator of Japan, which is heavily dependent on export-oriented industry. The index value above 0 is positive for the yen, the value below 0, respectively, is a negative factor. However, according to forecasts, the value of the index, which will be published on Thursday April 01, will not be higher or lower, but equal to 0. This is a neutral value. Although, it is possible that it will support the Japanese currency somewhat, since Tankan was at minus 10 a quarter earlier. But it is likely to be only a small correction of the USD/JPY pair to the south. Overall, most analysts (60%) remain bullish, expecting it to consolidate above the 110.00 horizon. The targets are 111.70 and 112.20. 100% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators agree with this scenario. The remaining 25% give signals that the pair is overbought. The remaining 40% of experts, supported by graphic analysis, still hope for a long-awaited correction to the south. At the same time, when moving to monthly and quarterly forecasts, their number increases to 75%. Support levels in case the pair falls are 109.00, 108.60, 108.40, 106.65. The target is zone 106.00; - cryptocurrencies. It was noticed that not only plants start growing in the spring, but also bitcoin quotes. So, the BTC/USD pair rose in April by an average of 40% for the past three years. That is, this time it should be somewhere in the area of $70,000-75,000 by the end of April. Call options with expiration on April 30 show similar expectations. Those are now open at a price of $80,000 on derivative exchanges for a total of $240,000,000. Its active withdrawal to cold wallets continues in anticipation of a new growth cycle for the main cryptocurrency. We have already talked more than once about the support package for the US economy in the amount of $1.9 trillion, of which, according to a study by Mizuho Securities, US citizens can spend $20-25 billion on the purchase of cryptocurrency. Following this anti-Covid package, another one is possible, in the amount of $3.0 trillion. And if adopted, it would also benefit the crypto market. But all this is in the future. In the meantime, 60% of analysts believe that the BTC/USD pair will move along the Pivot Point of $50,000 for the next one or two weeks, fluctuating in the $46,500-56,000 range. If we talk about a long-term forecast, according to the co-founder and former CEO of the BTCC cryptocurrency exchange Bobby Lee, the price of bitcoin can rise to $300,000, after which the growth will be replaced by a long-term decline. “Bitcoin bull market cycles occur every four years, and the current one is a big cycle. I think that bitcoin may rise to $100,000 this summer,” he said. However, after reaching an all-time high of $300,000, even a small price decrease will cause the bubble to collapse. Lee suggested that the new crypto winter will last between two and three years, and "investors should be prepared for the fact that the value of bitcoin could fall 80-90% from the historical peak." And in conclusion of the review, we present you the next "miracle device" in our micro-heading "Crypto Life Hacks". WiseMining has recently introduced the Sato ASIC miner boiler that allows you to heat water by mining bitcoin. The intermediate coolant of the boiler is a special dielectric coolant. The liquid boils and evaporates in the ASIC cooling unit, the vapor rises into the tank coil and condenses, giving off heat to the water. Condensation flows back into the cooling unit of the miner. The developers provided the possibility of connecting this water heater to the main heating system of the room. Sato sales will begin as early as this April. And one more "life hack", from the criminal world. According to a new study by analytical company Elliptic, the largest darknet market, Hydra, has a new way of exchanging cryptocurrency for fiat money. The vacuum-packed treasure with money is buried "5-20 cm underground", and the exact GPS coordinates are communicated to the buyer. This same method has long been used to sell illegal substances such as drugs. However, it is quite risky, as bandits sometimes track down customers and take away "the parcels". The consequences in this case are unpredictable. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 CryptoNews - The capitalization of bitcoin for the first time exceeded $1 trillion in mid-February. And, although many analysts doubt the continued growth, ARK Invest CEO Catherine Wood believes that the first trillion in the capitalization of the first cryptocurrency is only the first step. “If we calculate the potential demand for bitcoin, given the limited supply of coins, we get huge numbers in the long run. Now is just the beginning, and the capitalization of $1 trillion is nothing compared to the indicators of the future, "- said the CEO of ARK Invest at a conference held by the Chicago Board Options Exchange. The demand for bitcoin from institutional investors who are trying to hedge inflation risks with cryptocurrencies has become one of the most important things. At the same time, they buy bitcoin for a very long time and increase the number of coins withdrawn from circulation. “We see Square, Tesla, MicroStrategy and others buying bitcoin. Cryptocurrencies dominate the business of these companies now. And the announcement of the sale of Tesla for BTC will allow you to do business in any region without wasting time and money on exchanging fiat currencies." So, the current position is only the beginning of a bullish cycle, Catherine Wood emphasized. - The PayPal payment system is going to provide its customers with the opportunity to pay in bitcoins in all stores that are partners of the company in the near future. We are talking about approximately 29 million retail outlets around the world. According to Reuters, in addition to the main cryptocurrency, PayPal also plans to introduce support for payments in Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum and Litecoin. Reuters noted that it is not about direct payment of goods and services with the help of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. All assets will be automatically converted to fiat in real time. This will make the option available in all countries where PayPal operates. It will also be possible to transfer funds in real time to debit or credit cards. PayPal CEO Dan Shulman noted that there will be no fees for cryptocurrency transactions. - Miami Mayor Francis Suarez wants to make the city the hub of bitcoin mining. According to him, 90% of miners extract the first cryptocurrency using "dirty energy" outside the United States. “This is the reason why bitcoin mining is considered a dirty business,” said Suarez. According to him, the United States is ready to provide large bitcoin miners with access to renewable energy sources. He is confident that America should mine more digital gold, including for reasons of national security and environmental protection. “We have nuclear, which means clean energy, which is practically unlimited,” added Suarez. According to the bitcoin energy consumption index Digiconomist, the indicator renewed its all-time high on March 28: the annual consumption reached 89.9 TWh. - Enthusiasts used the Game Boy handheld gaming system to mine cryptocurrency. A video about this was released on a YouTube channel. Only the 4 MHz Sharp processor installed in this game console was used directly for mining. The system issued a 0.8 H/s hashrate. However, the result is not very encouraging: with a bitcoin rate of about $55,000, it will take 50 thousand years to mine $1. - Latvian airBaltic was the first airline in the world to add bitcoin as a way to pay for its flights. According to the company, about 1000 customers have used this option since its integration. And now airBaltic has added the ability to buy tickets with Ethereum, Dogecoin, Bitcoin Cash, USD Coin, Binance Dollar, Gemini Dollar and Paxos. Airline prices are denominated in euros. The BitPay payment service automatically converts cryptocurrencies into fiat upon purchase. - Popular cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo said that we will see the final stage of the explosive growth of the first cryptocurrency this year, which will be the last for a three-year "bullish cycle". Now the bitcoin rate is at a local bottom and there is no point in selling your BTC reserves. On the contrary, this is a good time to develop the position. “You have to be crazy to sell right now. At the bottom, bitcoin is now being bought up in huge volumes,” the analyst noted. In support of his statement that bitcoin is unlikely to decline anytime soon, Woo recalled large-scale transfers of BTC from the Coinbase cryptocurrency exchange to cold wallets - this suggests that the "whales" are buying and are waiting for the growth of the first cryptocurrency. - Canadian mortgage broker Mogo with a capitalization of $435 million has launched a new program: the users will be able to receive cashback up to $2,460 when applying for a mortgage and use it to buy bitcoins. The program works both when applying for a new mortgage, and when refinancing an existing one. “Given the volatility and speculative nature of bitcoin, more Canadians are looking for an opportunity to participate in BTC trading without investing their own money. Our program is designed for just such customers,” explained David Feller, CEO of Mogo. - During the current cycle, the price of the cryptocurrency has risen by almost 500% since October and has updated highs above $60,000. Bitcoin rallied during the first two months of 2021 but ran into a hurdle in March. Historical data shows that bitcoin may continue to rise in April after the March rollback. “The season may be the determining factor. - Danny Scott, head of CoinCorner exchange, said in a conversation with Forbes. - April always stands out because it marks the end of the UK and US tax period. If we start from historical information, April may well end with an upswing." So, the data shows that bitcoin has risen by an average of 51% in April over the past 10 years. If this scenario is repeated, its price may be around of $80,000 by the end of the month. There were only two negative months of April: in 2014 (minus 6%) and in 2015 (minus 4%). But both of these times happened on bearish cycles, and therefore it is worth taking into account the "current sentiment in the industry." “Now we are, by and large, experiencing a bullish period, and momentum is consistently forming every week,” said Scott. - Norwegian billionaire and investor Oystein Stray Spetalen was actively criticizing bitcoin on March 18. “The only conclusion I came to in the course of my analysis is that bitcoin consumes as much electricity today as the whole of Norway. This is extremely harmful to the environment. - he was indignant at the DNB conference. - The authorities and the EU should immediately ban it. This is just nonsense. The existing payment systems are doing an excellent job with their tasks." And now, just a few days later, Spetalen unexpectedly announced during an interview with Finansavisen that he had become an investor in the Norwegian crypto exchange Miraiex. “When facts change, so do I. I met with the founders of Miraiex and realized I was wrong. And when I read that Kjell Inge Rokke also joined bitcoin, the choice became obvious. I can’t allow him to make money, but me not,” Spetalen said. For reference: Norwegian industrial tycoon and billionaire Kjell Inge Rokke opened a 500 million kroner ($ 58.6 million) Seetee company to invest in bitcoin in early March. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 05 - 09, 2021 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. The U.S. economy continues to recover vigorously. This is evidenced by the impressive data from the labor market. Thus, the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) has almost doubled compared to the previous period (growth from 468K to 916K) and, moreover, has exceeded the forecast (647K) by almost a third. The ISM Manufacturing PMI has risen from 60.8 to 64.7. Also, according to the ADP report, the employment rate in the private sector has increased from 176K to 517K. All this suggests that fiscal stimulation of the economy and the injection of money into it is working. But is it good for the dollar? Of course, this scheme also includes yields on long-term US government bonds, as well as the prospects for monetary policy for the next few years. Investors are sensitive to statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on the possibility of curtailing the quantitative easing (QE) program and raising the interest rate. On the one hand, according to the statements of the management, the Federal Reserve System does not intend to raise interest rates until at least 2023. The Fed is not going to change other parameters of the quantitative easing (QE) program either, believing that injecting $1.9 trillion into the economy will be quite enough. But on the other hand, US President Joe Biden presented a massive $2.25 trillion infrastructure spending plan on Wednesday March 31, along with a financing scheme through tax increases. If, indeed, these funds arise not at the expense of the printing press, but at the expense of an increase in the tax load, this will mean the curtailment of QE, and will entail the flow of capital from the stock market to the government bond market. But while this is all just planning, the market has frozen in anticipation, and the EUR/USD pair has moved into a sideways trend. As predicted by the majority of experts (70%), the dollar continued to strengthen at the beginning of last week, and the pair came close to 1.1700. But then, largely thanks to Biden's new plan, it turned around and went up. However, this rebound can hardly be called a trend change. The pair just returned to where it had been on March 25-30. It completed the trading week in the same zone, at the level of 1.1760; - GBP/USD. In general, the chart of this pair was similar to the chart of EUR/USD, with only one fundamental difference. If the euro continues to retreat against the dollar, the British pound, albeit with difficulty, is trying to hold the defense. This time, the UK GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2020 to 1.3%, as well as the revised upward index of business activity came to help it. Let us remind that, when making a forecast for the previous week, 40% of experts voted for the strengthening of the dollar, 10% for the strengthening of the pound and 50% for the sideways trend. And in general, everyone was right. The pair both fell to 1.3705, and grew to 1.3850, and eventually finished only 40 points above the start. Having started the five-day week at 1.3790, it completed it at 1.3830; - USD/JPY. Most analysts (60%) had expected this pair to consolidate above the 110.00 horizon. 100% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators had agreed with this scenario. And it turned out to be absolutely true. The pair has been relentlessly moving north since January 6 and it renewed this year's high on Wednesday March 31, reaching 110.95. The long-awaited correction to the south did not happen again, and the pair ended the trading session at 110.65; - cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is storming the $60,000 threshold again. At the time of writing, the maximum it has reached so far is $60,170. However, as soon as the benchmark cryptocurrency approaches this milestone, another wave of sales follows, causing a pullback. However, these ebbs are not large enough. And this suggests that there are fewer and fewer people willing to part with bitcoin at this level. Investors are waiting for a leap up. And these small corrections just give them the opportunity to replenish their stock of tokens on the pullback. A huge number of bitcoins are flowing into cold wallets, which indicates that the "whales" institutions are set for the further growth of BTC and see it as an asset for long-term investments. The news background also contributes to this. “We see Square, Tesla, MicroStrategy and others buying bitcoin,” says ARK Invest CEO Catherine Wood. - Now cryptocurrencies determine part of the business of these companies. And the announcement of the sale of Tesla for BTC will allow you to do business in any region without wasting time and money on exchanging fiat currencies." The major payment system, PayPal, has also joined the crypto race. it intends to provide its customers with the opportunity to pay in bitcoins in all stores that are partners of the company, and there are approximately 29 million of them around the world. According to Reuters, in addition to the main cryptocurrency, PayPal also plans to introduce support for payments in Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum and Litecoin. We can talk about the gradual adoption of cryptocurrencies in various sectors of the economy at the moment. However, large investors are still very worried about the attitude of regulators to this type of assets. And, first and foremost, the US authorities. According to a number of analysts, while bitcoin and the main altcoins act as a store of value and speculation, the American regulator turns a blind eye to it. But as soon as bitcoin begins to compete with the dollar as a means of payment and international payments even a little, the attitude of the authorities can change dramatically. And it is not at all excluded that the initiatives of PayPal and other payment systems will cause a negative reaction from them. An example of this is Facebook's Libra, which was strangled in the bud. In the meantime, as mentioned, the main cryptocurrency is trying to gain a foothold above $60,000, and the total market capitalization is trying to exceed the most important psychological level of $2.0 trillion. It reached a volume of $1.993 billion on the first day of April, but it rolled back to the level of $1.936 billion on Friday. It is noteworthy that the dominance of bitcoin in the market has slightly decreased over the past 7 days: from 59.56% to 57.88%. Moreover, its share in the crypto market literally fell to 55.50% on April 1. The reason for this is the closure of long positions when the BTC/USD pair reached the horizon of $60,000. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has started to rise again. It rose by 20 points over the week, from 54 to 74, and came close to the strongly overbought zone. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. Europe is preparing for a new wave of coronavirus. The rate of vaccination, although growing, is slow. Only 16.5% of the EU population has received at least one injection so far, compared to 45.6% in the USA. The situation could be aggravated by another month of lockdowns. Coupled with the absence in the EU of a plan to stimulate an economy similar to the American one, it could provide additional support to the dollar and put pressure on the euro. Analysts from Japanese bank Daiwa Securities note that dollars are now being bought not only by speculators but also by asset managers. And in their opinion, the USD DXY index will go up while the American economy improves and Treasury yields rise. This scenario is also supported by experts from Nordea Markets, according to whom the EUR/USD pair is expected to decline to the level of 1.1500. On the other hand, excessive US stimulus measures could overheat the US economy. In addition, according to the WTO estimates, the surplus of dollars in the country will lead to an increase in demand for imports by 11.4%. Most of this demand will be met by exports from Asia and Europe. And if the countries of the Eurozone radically accelerate the rate of vaccination, then the preponderance will be on the side of the European currency. It is clear that graphical analysis, 75% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1 are still colored red at the moment. However, the remaining 25% of the oscillators are already signaling that the pair is oversold. The picture is completely different On H4: about half of the indicators have switched to green. As for the opinion of experts, the pair is expected to grow next week by 55% of them, however, when switching to the monthly forecast, their number grows to 65%. The bears' goals are 1.1700 and the low of November 2020 at 1.1600. The goals of the bulls are 1.1885 and 1.2000. As for the events of the coming week, we can mention the publication of the ISM index of business activity in the services sector on Monday 05 April, the publication of the minutes of the US Fed's FOMS meeting on Wednesday 07 April and a speech of the head of the organization, Jerome Powell, on Thursday 08 April; - GBP/USD. The British currency may continue to grow, as it did in the first two months of 2021. Especially so if there is a return to the country of major capital that fled from it due to Brexit. The pound is also supported by the successes of the early stages of vaccination against COVID-19. However, this may not be enough due to the problems after the UK exit from the EU, the impressive trade deficit and the country's budget deficit. However, the majority of experts (65%) are quite optimistic about the future of the British currency at the moment. 15% predict its weakening, and the remaining 20% insist on a sideways trend. The 1.3850 level can be designated as the support/resistance zone of the last eight weeks. It is the lateral movement along it that graphical analysis draws. On H4, the borders of the trading range look like 1.3755-1.3850. On D1, they are naturally much wider, 1.3670–1.4000. 85% of oscillators and 70% of trend indicators on D1 look north. Also, the green has an advantage among trend indicators on H4: those are 75%. But as for the oscillators, here 60% are painted in neutral gray, and 20% - in red and green; - USD/JPY. It has been repeatedly written that the rate of this pair is greatly influenced by the yield of US Treasuries. However, the Bank of Japan has not been able to decide how to respond to rising yields on US securities and what to do with its own. If the yield on 10-year US bonds and commodity prices continue to rise, and the Japanese regulator does not respond to this, it could hit the yen hard. And it has already suffered quite tangible losses, having lost more than 800 points to the dollar over the past three months. Currently 85% of the trend indicators on H4 and 100% on D1 are facing north. 60% of the oscillators on H4 and 65% on D1 are looking in the same direction, the rest signal that the pair is overbought. And a very interesting and unexpected picture emerged during a survey of analysts. Giving a weekly forecast, 70% of them were in favor of a correction to the south and 30% - for a sideways trend. The number of votes cast for the growth of the pair is 0. Moreover, when switching to a monthly forecast, the number of bears' supporters grows to 90%. The graphical forecast on both timeframes also supports the bearish scenario. Support levels are 110.35, 109.85, 109.00 and 108.50. The nearest resistance level is 111.00, the targets of the bulls are 111.70 and 112.20; - cryptocurrencies. As has been noted many times, the "whales" store large stocks of bitcoins in cold wallets. According to Glassnode, not only the volume of frozen crypto assets is growing, but also the number of such long-term investors. For example, the Norwegian billionaire Oystein Stray Spetalen changed his attitude towards bitcoin in just one day! Back on March 18, he actively demanded that the EU authorities ban the cryptocurrency. And a day later ... he became an investor in the Norwegian crypto-exchange Miraiex, stating that "when the facts change, I also change." Another Norwegian billionaire, Kjell Inge Rokke, who opened a special company to invest in bitcoin, may have caused this turnaround. "I can’t let him make money, but me not," Spetalen said. So, will there be an opportunity to make money on bitcoin anytime soon? During the current cycle, the price of the cryptocurrency has risen by almost 500% since October 2020 and has updated highs above $60,000. Bitcoin rallied during the first two months of 2021 but ran into a hurdle in March. However, according to a number of experts, historical data indicate that after the March rollback bitcoin's growth may continue in April. “The season may be the determining factor. - Danny Scott, head of CoinCorner exchange, said in a conversation with Forbes. - April always stands out because it marks the end of the UK and US tax period. If we start from historical information, April may well end with an upswing." So, the data shows that bitcoin has risen by an average of 51% in April over the past 10 years. If this scenario is repeated, its price may be around of $80,000 by the end of the month. There were only two negative months of April: in 2014 (minus 6%) and in 2015 (minus 4%). But both of these times happened on bearish cycles, and therefore it is worth taking into account the "current sentiment in the industry." “Now we are, by and large, experiencing a bullish period, and momentum is consistently forming every week,” said Scott. If we apply Fibonacci levels to the charts of the BTC/USD pair, then the next targets for it may be the levels of $73,000 and $92,000. It is appropriate to quote here the opinion of the popular cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo, who said that we will see the final stage of the explosive growth of the first cryptocurrency rate this year. But it will also be the last one for a three-year bull cycle. Now the bitcoin rate is at a local bottom and there is no point in selling your BTC reserves, Woo thinks. “You have to be crazy to sell right now. At the bottom, bitcoin is now being bought up in huge volumes,” the analyst noted, citing the statistics of the Coinbase cryptocurrency exchange as an example. It is surprising that with such optimism of individual crypto enthusiasts, 70% of analysts expect not growth, but, on the contrary, a fall in the BTC/USD pair to the $50,000 mark during April. And in conclusion of the review, we present you the next "miracle device" in our traditional micro-heading "Crypto Life Hacks". A group of enthusiasts adapted the Game Boy portable game console for cryptocurrency mining. A video about this was released on a YouTube channel. Only its 4 MHz Sharp processor was used directly for mining. However, this invention is unlikely to make the craftsmen millionaires: tests have shown that with a bitcoin rate of about $55,000, they will need 50 thousand years to mine $1. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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