FXOpen Trader

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Gold Price Struggles, Oil Price Consolidates Well above $50 Gold price made an attempt to surpass the $1,860 resistance, but there was a major rejection. Crude oil price seems to be consolidating gains above $51.50 and $51.20. Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Gold price is still trading below the main $1,860 and $1,880 resistance levels against the US Dollar. There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,855 on the hourly chart of gold. Crude oil price seems to be facing a strong resistance near the $53.50 and $54.00 levels. There is likely an expanding triangle forming with support near $52.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD. Gold Price Technical Analysis Gold price settled below the main $1,900 pivot level to move into a bearish zone against the US Dollar. The price even settled below the $1,880 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. On the downside, the price is finding strong bids above the $1,830 and $1,835 levels. Recently, there was a sharp recovery above the $1,850 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. However, the price failed to clear the $1,860 resistance level. A high was formed near $1,863 on FXOpen before there was a fresh decline. A low is formed near $1,835 and the price is currently consolidating losses. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,863 swing high to $1,838 low. It is now facing resistance near the $1,845 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The next major resistance is near the $1,850 level. The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,863 swing high to $1,838 low is at $1,850. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,855 on the hourly chart of gold. On the downside, there is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near $1,838. The first key support is near the $1,830 level. The next major support is at $1,820, below which the price might test the $1,800 support level. Oil Price Technical Analysis Crude oil price remained in a strong uptrend well above the $50.00 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The price settled nicely above $52.00 and it even made a few attempts to gain strength above the $54.00 level. The recent high was formed near $53.47 before the price trimmed most gains. It broke the $53.00 support and tested the $52.00 level. A low is formed near $51.98 and the price is currently consolidating. It tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $53.47 high to $51.98 low. The first major resistance is near the $52.55 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The next key resistance is near the $52.75 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $53.47 high to $51.98 low. Moreover, it seems like there is likely an expanding triangle forming with support near $52.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD. If there are more downsides below the triangle support, the price could test the $51.50 support. The next key support is near the $51.20 level. On the upside, the $53.50 and $54.00 levels are major hurdles. A clear break above $54.00 may possibly lead the price towards the $55.00 level. FXOpen Blog

LTC and EOS – Correction might have ended but downside potential still present LTC/USD The price of Litecoin has been on the rise since yesterday as it came from $118.1 to $132.15 which is an increase of 11.89%. Now it is being traded slightly lower but is still in an upward trajectory. On the hourly chart, we can see that this recovery came after a decline of around 20.35% from its high on January 25th when it reached $147.8. This was the continuation of the descending move that started on the 7th of January and is part of the corrective structure of a higher degree count. The price found support on the 0.618 Fib extension level and is now looking for support on the 0.5. If the support is present on those levels we could see the recovery continuing to move to the upside. But if the price doesn’t find support further downside movement could be seen. In either way, since this is the part of the higher degree correction we would expect further downside as there is still more room to go. If the price is to make a five-wave impulse that could be the C wave of the ABC correction we could see Litecoin being traded at around $75 area. However, we could be seeing a different correctional count in which case projecting the length of the first descending impulse we come up with the target of around $91.35. EOS/USD From yesterday’s low at $2.465 the price of EOS has increased by 13.61% as it came up to the $2.801 level at its highest point today. The price spiked impulsively to the upside but has since made a minor retracement to the $2.7134 level where it’s currently being traded. Looking at the hourly chart we can see that the price made a higher low yesterday and has attempted to make a higher high but failed to do so on the current rise. However, considering the impulsiveness seen this might change soon. From its high on the 10th of January made at $3.925 a strong descending move was made which could have been the starting point of the correctional higher degree move. With the price currently testing the prior high which is the horizontal resistance, it might get rejected causing further downside continuation. In that case, we are to see an immediate retracement which will push the price further down breaking the horizontal support of $2.4237. But if it continues increasing from there it could indicate that the correction ended on the 22nd of January in which case yesterday’s low would be the 2nd wave out of the next five-wave impulse to the upside. FXOpen Blog

Guess the currency rate and get money! We are continuing a series of contests among our subscribers. This week we will give away $50 to those, who will provide the closest forecast for the XTI/USD pair. Full Details about the Contest on the FXOpen official page Facebook

EUR/USD and EUR/JPY: Euro Eyeing Upside Break EUR/USD is holding the 1.2100 support area, but it is also struggling to clear 1.2200. Similarly, EUR/JPY is facing a strong resistance near 126.15, above which it could start a strong increase. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY The Euro is consolidating in a range above the 1.2100 support zone. There is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2170 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. EUR/JPY is facing a major resistance near the 126.15 and 1.2620 levels. There is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 126.15 on the hourly chart. EUR/USD Technical Analysis This past week, the Euro climbed above the 1.2150 resistance zone against the US Dollar. However, the EUR/USD pair faced a major resistance near the 1.2200 and 1.2210 levels. There were a couple of attempts to clear 1.2200, but the bulls failed to gain strength. As a result, there was a sharp decline below 1.2150. The pair broke the 1.2120 support, but it found a strong support near 1.2100. A low was formed near 1.2107 before the pair bounced back to 1.2175. A high is formed near 1.2175 on FXOpen and it is currently correcting lower. The pair is testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 1.2107 swing low to 1.2175 high. The first major support on the downside is near the 1.2150 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The next major support is near the 1.2140 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 1.2107 swing low to 1.2175 high. On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 1.2175 level. There is also a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2170 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. A clear break above the triangle resistance could push the pair towards the main 1.2200 resistance zone. If EUR/USD clears the 1.2200 resistance zone, there could be a strong increase. In the stated case, the pair could easily rise towards 1.2250 or 1.2265. EUR/JPY Technical Analysis The Euro also followed a similar path after it faced seller near 1.2640 against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair broke the 126.00 support level, but it remained stable above the 125.70 level. A low is formed near 125.69 and the pair is currently rising. There was a clear break above the 126.00 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair also climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 126.39 high to 125.69 low. It is now facing resistance near the 126.12 level. It represents the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 126.39 high to 125.69 low. There is also a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 126.15 on the hourly chart. A clear break above the triangle resistance and 126.20 could open the doors for more upsides. The next major resistance is near 126.40, above which the bulls might aim a test of the 127.00 level. Conversely, the pair could drop below the 126.00 level and the 50 hourly SMA. In the stated case, it could test the triangle support at 125.90. Any more losses could open the doors for a drop towards the 125.50 level in the near term. FXOpen Blog

BTC and XRP – Bearish scenario expected BTC/USD From yesterday’s open the price of Bitcoin has increased by 12.44% coming from its lowest point of $31,030 to $34,891 at its highest but has since then made a downfall. The price fell back to the same levels as on yesterday’s low and is now starting to make another recovery attempt. Currently it is sitting at around $32,221. Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that the price made a recovery from the 22nd of January when it fell to $28,785 at its lowest wick. The decrease to those levels was the completion of the 3rd wave from the corrective structure that started developing after the all-time high. We could have seen the completion of the correction, but the wave structure is still looking more corrective than impulsive on the recovery that followed. This is why more likely, we are seeing the corrective wave continuation in the form of the second wave X from the WXYXZ complex count. As you can see the price made a descending triangle from its all-time high and since it made interaction with its resistance level, now we are going to have a validation of the assumed scenario as if the price is in a prolonged correction now the Z wave is shortly going to start developing. That means that now a breakout to the downside would be shortly expected. If this starts developing the price of Bitcoin could fall back to the $24,000 area where the next significant horizontal support level in line with the downside. This would be a downfall of just over 30% which would be a highly significant one. XRP/USD The price of Ripple has been moving sideways from the 22nd of January when it spiked down to $0.24 area from where it made a recovery to $0.28 level. Since the price has been in this horizontal range we have seen further support and resistance testing with the price currently sitting at $0.26645. As you can see from the hourly chart, the price has previously made a breakout to the upside from the descending triangle in which it was since the 8th of January but failed to continue moving to the upside. The assumed scenario was the five-wave impulse to the upside but since the price spiked inside the territory of the 1st wave this is starting to get invalidated. Instead, more likely we have seen a three-wave upside corrective move before further downside continuation. However, the quick spike on the 22nd could have been the completion of the 4th wave although unlikely at this point. In the upcoming period, we are going to see if the invalidation gets confirmed and that is going to be indicated from the breakout direction of the current horizontal range. FXOpen Blog

ForexCup Trading Championship 2021, a contest for traders to win $50,000, is now live! FXOpen, a trusted global CFD and Forex broker is proud to announce the launch of the ForexCup Trading Championship 2021. The contest with the main prize of $50,000 runs from January 1 to December 31, 2021, and is available to all traders with active FXOpen accounts. The ForexCup Trading Championship is a one-of-a-kind contest designed to engage investors, traders, and portfolio managers in fair and reliable global competition. For an entire year, participants will compete for the title of the best and for a hefty cash prize of 50,000 U.S. dollars, which will go to whoever demonstrates the most profit at the end of the year 2021. The contest is available to anyone who has an active FXOpen ECN account. The only requirement is to have a minimum trading deposit and follow the contest rules. Participants can choose any instruments available within their jurisdictions: spot FX, Index, Commodity, Stock, Metal or Crypto CFDs. Three personalized crystal trophies are prepared for the first three places, and the trader who takes the first place will receive a cash prize of $50,000 without any additional conditions. Forex Trading Championship is a brand-new name among other trading competitions, but it has a big legacy. With the support of renowned partners, including global Forex and ECN broker FXOpen, the championship provides an opportunity for you to compete with the best and put your trading strategies to the test! “We launched the ForexCup Trading Championship to provide our clients the unique opportunity to test not only themselves but to measure and compare their trading skills against their peers, to take the coveted position of Top Trader. Ultimately, we hope this will identify and inspire the next generation of Forex enthusiasts,” Gary Thomson asserts, the Chief Operating Officer of FXOpen UK. Anyone interested can sign up now or read more about Forex Trading Championship rules and philosophy here. FXOpen Company News

Decisive Week for the Dollar as the Fed’s Meeting Looms Large Financial markets started the new year on the same note as the previous year ended – higher stocks, lower dollar. The extent of the advance in the stock market, or the decline in the dollar, led many market participants to wonder if the Fed’s monetary policy did not lead to financial bubbles? After all, a survey shows that over 25% of the market participants still believe that Bitcoin will double from the current levels. Or, 18% believe that the price of Tesla will double over the next twelve months. That is, in the context of Bitcoin already rising from $10,000 to $40,000 in the last months and Tesla already being up over 650% in 2020. Will the Dollar Weakness Stop? To many, the weakness in the dollar is responsible for such extreme price action. If we are to see a change in the trend, as suggested by the 56% of the market participants that expect a higher dollar against Bitcoin for the next twelve months, then the risk may come from Wednesday Fed’s decision. On Wednesday, the Fed is expected to keep the monetary policy unchanged – the federal funds rate at the lower boundary and the QE program running at $120 billion/month. However, this week, the focus will shift from the FOMC Statement to the Fed’s press conference. More precisely, it will be more important what the Fed thinks about the future economic outlook. In the face of the rapid pace of vaccinations (i.e., the United States already vaccinated 6% of its population), the risk is that the Fed will deliver a slightly hawkish outlook for the future economic recovery. If that is the case, the dollar may turn in the expectation of the future tapering of the quantitative easing program. Last week the ECB delivered a slightly hawkish statement too. It said that it may or may not use the full envelope of the PEPP program, despite the fact that many European countries face the worse of the pandemic right now. As such, one should not discount a hawkish Fed too. If that happens, the USD will make a U-turn because the reflation trade that went on for months now seems to be extremely stretched. As we saw in 2020, the dollar’s direction matters for the equity markets and other markets too. For stocks to remain close to all-time highs, the correlation with the dollar must break. Will we see such a divergence on Wednesday? Or will the reflation trade continue after the Fed’s first meeting of the year? FXOpen Blog

GBP/USD and EUR/GBP: British Pound Remains Strong GBP/USD extended its rise above the 1.3680 and 1.3700 resistance levels. EUR/GBP is correcting lower and it is approaching a major support near 0.8875. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP The British Pound remained well bid above 1.3600 and it climbed above 1.3680. There is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.3715 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. EUR/GBP started a fresh decline after it failed to clear the main 0.8920 resistance zone. Earlier, there was a break above a short-term bearish trend line with resistance near 0.0.8860 on the hourly chart. GBP/USD Technical Analysis After forming a base above the 1.3500 and 1.3520, there was a fresh increase in the British Pound against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.3580 and 1.3600 resistance levels to move into a positive zone. The pair gained momentum above 1.3600 and it even spiked above the 1.3680 resistance. There was also a break above the 1.3700 zone and the pair settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. A new multi-month high was formed near 1.3746 on FXOpen before the pair started a downside correction. It traded below the 1.3680 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average, but the bulls protected the 1.3640 level. A low is formed near 1.3636 and the pair is currently rising. It is trading above the 1.3680 level, the 50 hourly simple moving average, and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3746 high to 1.3636 low. It seems like there is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.3715 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. An immediate resistance is near the 1.3700 zone or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3746 high to 1.3636 low. A successful break above the 1.3700 and 1.3715 levels could open the doors for a new high above the 1.3746 in the near term. Conversely, the pair could break the triangle support and continue lower towards the main 1.3620 support level. EUR/GBP Technical Analysis The Euro started a fresh increase from the 0.8830 low against the British Pound. The EUR/GBP pair broke the 0.8850 and 0.8860 resistance levels to move into a positive zone. There was also a break above a short-term bearish trend line with resistance near 0.0.8860 on the hourly chart. The pair surged above the 0.8900 level, but it struggled to clear a major hurdle near the 0.8920 zone. A high is formed near 0.8918 and the pair is currently declining. It broke the 0.8900 level and tested the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.8830 swing low to 0.8918 high. On the downside, there is a major support waiting near the 0.8875 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is also close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.8830 swing low to 0.8918 high. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 0.8850 support level in the near term. Conversely, the pair could start a fresh increase from the 0.8875 support zone. On the upside, the 0.8900 level is a short-term resistance for the Euro bulls. However, the main hurdle is still near 0.8920, above which EUR/GBP could rally towards the 0.9000 resistance. FXOpen Blog

TickTrader Trading Platform TickTrader is a brand-new trading platform, which allows clients to trade five of the most popular asset classes — forex, stocks, commodities, indices, and cryptocurrencies via one trading account. A special trading account, TickTrader ECN, has been designed for trading using TickTrader platform. As a trading platform, TickTrader pursues one goal: helping users to become profitable. It is easy to adopt and use, but besides being user-friendly, TickTrader boasts comprehensive functionality that ensures it meets the multitude of requirements from every type of trader, from beginner to institutional. TickTrader Key Features TickTrader Terminals. Use TickTrader Desktop Terminal, or install the special version of TickTrader Mobile Terminal on your iOS or Android device, or trade direct from any browser via TickTrader Web Terminal. Highly customizable user-friendly interface. Personalize each single panel settings as well as the whole workstation entirely: a trader can easily create trading layout using a wide range of options and preferences. Advanced technical analysis tools. Take full advantage of ready-made various traditional indicators or make your own and add them to your account. One/double click trading mode. This tool is designed for traders who are looking to make profits of rapidly moving markets, or want to try high-frequency trading and/ or scalping and do not intend to lose a second on waiting. The orders are placed immediately. Level 2 pricing. Venture the market depth with up to 200 levels and the ability to see your limit orders inside the order book. Trading alert system. Customize your alerts and then choose how you receive the notifications. Detailed charting system. Descriptive charts allow a trader to draw and see volumes, trades, and set up alerts. Strategy back tester. Test and evaluate your trading strategies using past pricing and liquidity. You can then use the analytics to run your algo-trading strategies and EAs. What TickTrader has to offer? Now you can manage both margin and deliverable trading directly through the platform or via a FIX, REST, or WebSocket API. You can also fully adjust your workspace to suit your needs — a new intuitive user interface and more than 1200 advanced trading tools deliver a fully customizable trading experience. Level 2 data, heat maps, and backtesting are just some of the extensive trading tools offering sophisticated data analysis on the TickTrader platform, designed to help FXOpen clients create successful trading strategies. You can also make use of all the opportunities offered by advanced order types — Market orders, Limit Orders, and Stop Orders. There are also several advanced settings for these order types the platform has to offer: volume units (lot or quantity), stop levels, and slippage settings. FXOpen Company News

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Approaching Next Key Break AUD/USD is trading well above 0.7700, but is facing hurdles near 0.7780 and 0.7800. NZD/USD is also showing positive signs, but there is a crucial resistance forming near 0.7225-0.7240. Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD The Aussie Dollar started a fresh increase above the 0.7720 resistance levels against the US Dollar. There is a major contracting triangle forming with support near 0.7740 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. NZD/USD also climbed higher, but it is facing a strong resistance near 0.7225 and 0.7240. A key bullish trend line is forming with support near 0.7185 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD. AUD/USD Technical Analysis After forming a support base near 0.7660, the Aussie Dollar started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair broke the 0.7700 resistance level to move into a positive zone. The pair even broke the 0.7720 resistance and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. A high is formed near 0.7782 on FXOpen and the pair is currently correcting lower. There was a break below the 0.7760 support level. The pair even traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7720 swing low to 0.7782 high. It is now testing the 0.7745 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There is also a major contracting triangle forming with support near 0.7740 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. The triangle support is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7720 swing low to 0.7782 high. If there is a downside break below the triangle support, there is a risk of more losses. The next major support on the downside is near the 0.7720 level. On the upside, the 0.7770 level is an immediate resistance. A clear break above the 0.7770 and 0.7780 levels may possibly open the doors for a larger increase towards 0.7800 and 0.7840 in the coming sessions. NZD/USD Technical Analysis The New Zealand Dollar also followed a similar path above the 0.7120 support against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair broke the 0.7200 resistance to move back into a positive zone. However, the pair is facing a strong resistance near the 0.7225 and 0.7240 levels. A high is formed near 0.7225 and the pair is currently correcting lower. It traded below the 0.7200 level, but it is well above the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is trading just below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7177 swing low to 0.7225 high. On the downside, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.7185 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD. The trend line is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7177 swing low to 0.7225 high. If there is a downside break below the trend line support, there is a risk of more losses towards the 0.7150 and 0.7120 support levels. Conversely, the pair could remain well bid above the 0.7180 support zone. On the upside, the 0.7225 and 0.7240 levels are crucial hurdles. A clear break and close above the 0.7240 level could set the pace for a strong increase towards the 0.7300 level. FXOpen Blog

Litecoin and EOS – Bears are in control LTC/USD The price of Litecoin has been in a decline since Tuesday when it was sitting at $166.11 and made a downfall to $130 level today, which was a decrease of 21.74%. Now the price is being traded slightly higher but is still in a downward trajectory. Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that the price made a breakout below the ascending channel that formed since the 11th of January when the price fell to the $112.33 area. From there a recovery was made all the way up above the $160 level but now another impulsive descending move has been seen which is most likely the continuation of the corrective decrease. If this is the three-wave corrective decline from the 10th of January the move to the downside would be expected to continue and surpass the prior low at $112 and could potentially continue all the way down to $82.9. However, there is a possibility that this is going to be a triangle formation of the higher degree in which this three-wave move could be its first sub-wave. In that case, the price could make another significant recovery before this move to the $82.9 horizontal level. The price has found support at 0.236 Fib level at least a temporary one, so now we are going to see what happens as if it manages to stay up the recovery might come. EOS/USD From its Tuesday’s high at $2.926 the price of EOS has decreased by 12.18% as it came down to $2.579 at its lowest wick today. Now the price is looking like it has stabilized above the $2.62 level and is establishing support. On the hourly chart, you can see that the price has made a breakout from the ascending channel like in the case of Litecoin but the pattern isn’t as similar as the price of EOS made a more significant decrease from the 10th of January till the 11th then it has now since Tuesday. We have seen a decrease of over 37% till the 11th of January and if this descending move is the continuation of that move, the price could be expected to go significantly lower. But another round of hard-selling like it occurred then isn’t likely to play out. More likely we are going to see a further decrease to some of the horizontal support levels out of which the first one in line would be the 11th January low, but the next one is just below the $2 mark. The price could make another impulsive move to the vicinity of the lower horizontal level, but like in the case of Litecoin that might not come in a straight line. FXOpen Blog

Changes to Australia Day Trading Hours Dear Traders, Due to the upcoming Australia Day celebrations on Tuesday, January 26th, 2021, you will experience the following change in the trading hours schedule: Thursday, January 26th Indices CFD: Australia 200 (#AUS200) – trading starts at 08:10 AM (GMT +2). All other financial instruments will be traded as usual. Please consider these changes when planning your trading next week. FXOpen Company News

EUR/USD Recovering Losses, USD/JPY Remains At Risk EUR/USD started a downside correction from well above 1.2300 and recently found support near 1.2055. USD/JPY is showing bearish signs and it could decline heavily below 103.50. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY The Euro remained well bid above 1.2050 and started a fresh increase. There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2120 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. USD/JPY is declining and showing bearish signs below the 104.00 resistance. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 103.98 on the hourly chart. EUR/USD Technical Analysis In the past few days, there was a steady decline in the Euro from well above 1.2200 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair even broke the 1.2120 support level, but it remained well bid above 1.2050. A low was formed near 1.2053 on FXOpen before the pair is currently recovering losses. There was a break above the 1.2100 resistance level and the 50 hourly simple moving average, opening the doors for a steady increase. There was also a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2120 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The pair even broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2222 swing high to 1.2053 low. An immediate resistance is near the 1.2058 level. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2222 swing high to 1.2053 low. The main resistance is near the 1.2175, above which EUR/USD is likely to accelerate higher. Conversely, the pair could start a fresh decline below the 1.2135 support. The first major support is near the 1.2115 zone. If there is a downside break below the 1.2115 support zone, the pair could continue to move down. In the stated case, there are high chances of a retest of the 1.2053 swing low in the near term. USD/JPY Technical Analysis The US Dollar seems to be trading in a broad range below the 104.20 and 104.50 resistance levels against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair formed a high near 104.08, and recently started a fresh decline. There was a break below the 103.85 support level the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair also declined below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 103.63 low to 104.08 high. It is now trading near a key support at 103.75. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 103.63 low to 104.08 high. If there is a downside break below the 103.75 level, the pair could move towards the main 103.50 support zone. The stated 103.50 support holds the key, below which the pair could decline heavily in the near term. On the upside, the first major resistance is near the 103.85 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 103.98 on the hourly chart. A clear break above the trend line is must for a steady increase. The next key resistance could be near 104.20, above which USD/JPY could revisit 104.50. Any more gains may possibly increase the chances of a test of the 105.00 level in the near term. FXOpen Blog

BTC and XRP – Prices continue to rise BTC/USD The price of Bitcoin has been moving sideways since last week as it came up to $40,000 area but then fell to $33,813 at its lowest point yesterday. This occurred after recovery and now we are seeing another minor one with the price reaching $37,486. Currently, it is being traded slightly lower but is still in an upward trajectory. Looking at the 4 hour chart, you can see that the price made it slightly below the 0.382 Fib level on Sunday’s low but managed to pull back up above it. This could indicate that support has been found but we are still yet to see if it manages to exceed the local high at the 0.618 Fib level. The primary scenario is one in which we are seeing an ABC correction of a higher degree and so far this has played out. The downfall below the 0.5 Fibonacci level has confirmed the previously assumed ABC to the upside which is the B wave from the higher degree count. This is why from here we would be expecting the continuation to the downside, but that might not come as expected. The C wave which was projected to the downside should have been developing a five-wave impulse but has instead made a three-wave decrease followed by a recovery. Now if the price continues increasing this count might get invalidated but this would potentially still be the part of the correctional count which is set to push the price lower. XRP/USD The price of Ripple has been increasing and came up by 13.87% from its yesterday’s low at $0.2714 to $0.309 where it is now being traded. On the 4-hour chart, you can see that the price broke out from the descending triangle on the upside after the third interaction with the horizontal support level was made. As the price found support there we have seen a bounce that led the price for a breakout and a higher high was made compared to the previous local one. This could be the start of the 5th wave from the five-wave impulse that started in December last year after the price made the end of the significant downside move. The price hasn’t made it inside the territory of the 1st wave which makes this scenario valid and now if we are seeing the development of the 5th wave it is set to push the price of Ripple higher then on the 7th of January where the ending point of the 3rd wave is. FXOpen Blog

Important Week for Global Policy Rates The week ahead of us is critical for the currency market. On Wednesday, we have the inauguration day in the United States, as Joe Biden will officially become the new President. The Biden’s administration economic agenda is based on three pillars – fiscal stimulus, infrastructure spending, bringing back the Obamacare program – and the markets will closely monitor the developments in these three areas. One day later, FX traders have the first major central bank meeting of the year, as the European Central Bank (ECB) announces its decision this coming Thursday. The central bank made it clear that the Euro is too high and that the higher EURUSD exchange rate weighs on inflation, but that did not stop the EURUSD rate from reaching 1.23. In the meantime, the exchange rate eased from the highs, trading below 1.21 – is this the start of a new cycle for the EURUSD pair? Fed vs. ECB The pandemic caught the ECB already having the interest rate in negative territory. In the aftermath of the European sovereign crisis in 2012, the ECB lowered the deposit facility below zero, where it still is at present. As such, the central bank was forced to use other unconventional tools to ease the policy during the pandemic. So did the Fed. But the Fed opted to avoid negative rates and to focus more on stimulating the business environment by printing huge amounts of new dollars. In 2020 alone, the Fed printed over 30% of all the dollars ever created. Yet, this did not translate into inflation, although it is too early to tell at this point if inflation will be a theme in the years ahead. The Fed’s actions sent the dollar lower, and the ECB and other central banks had little or no power to stop the dollar’s decline. As such, the Euro and the other G10 currencies, all appreciated against the dollar. Now that the crisis is adverted, as suggested by the available vaccines and the vaccination programs around the world, the market may choose to revert the dollar decline theme seen during the pandemic. If that is the case, this week, we should see the first signs of a trend change. Global policy rates are close to zero and are expected to remain so for the foreseeable future. Only in 2023 and beyond the major central banks are forecasted to lift the rates. However, even then, the ECB’s deposit facility rate is predicted to remain below zero. Therefore, judging by the interest rate differential that exists and will keep existing in the years ahead, the market may see a sharp reversal in the EURUSD exchange rate. FXOpen Blog