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<p> </p> <div> </div> <div> "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2011-09-05)</div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>Weekly GBP/USD</div> <div> </div> <div>On the weekly GBP/USD chart we see the sideways trend: the majority of the Indicator lines are directed horizontally (1, 2, 3), only Senkou Span B has gone a bit up narrowing the bullish Ichimoku Cloud.</div> <div> </div> <div>Last week the prices closed below the Standard line (1), while this week sterling began below the Turning line (2). Both lines are currently acting as resistance for pound.</div> <div> </div> <div>Tenkan-sen (2) and Kijun-sen (1) still keep the “dead cross” in place, though the signal isn’t strong as it was formed above Kumo, but keeps the pair from getting higher.</div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div><div> </div> <div>Chart. Weekly GBP/USD </div> <div> </div> <div>Daily GBP/USD</div> <div> </div> <div>Last week the prices went down ruining the short-term uptrend. Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) have formed the “dead cross”.</div> <div> </div> <div>The short-term Turning line and Senkou Span A (3) are going down (3) and the Ichimoku Cloud is narrowing due to its descending upper border.</div> <div> </div> <div>It’s also necessary to note that the lagging Chinkou Span has breached the price chart – the bearish signal (5). In addition, the prices have tested the levels below the Ichimoku Cloud – it happened where Kumo has switched and was thin. As a result, sterling may have lost an important support.</div> <div> </div> <div>The longer term Standard line (2) and Senkou Span B (4) remain horizontal that means that this week the decline could be partially compensated. At the same time, it’s necessary to remember about the resistance. It’s possible that the bears pull the rate down to $1.6100/$1.6050.</div> <div> </div> <div> </div><div> </div> <div>Chart. Daily GBP/USD </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8551</div>

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"NFP disappoints: unchanged in August"(2011-09-02) The market has certainly looking forward to better Non-Farm Payrolls figures, but the indicator remained unchanged in August, while the economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected 65,000 increase. The unemployment rate remained at 9.1%. It’s necessary to note that the poor situation at the labor market is one of the reasons why the Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank still has tools available to stimulate growth. As the result, the possibility that the Federal Reserve launches QE3 has increased. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8547

"Goldman Sachs changed RBNZ rates forecast"(2011-09-02) Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe that the Reserve bank of New Zealand will keep official cash rate unchanged at 2.5% until March, while earlier the specialists thought that the central bank will raise the borrowing costs. The RBNZ meeting is scheduled on September 15. Chart. Daily NZD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8546

"UBS, Commerzbank: comments on EUR/CHF"(2011-09-02) Currency strategists at UBS note that Swiss franc keeps appreciating versus the single currency and US dollar due to the encouraging economic data from Switzerland and the lack of comments from the Swiss national bank. Commerzbank notes that the data indicate that Swiss economy is fundamentally sound increasing demand for franc as a safe haven. Switzerland's economy expanded 2.3% in the second quarter on the annual basis after gaining 2.5% in the first 3 months of the year. Swiss retail sales grew only 1.9% in July after adding 7.9% in June as Swiss prefer to go shopping abroad. According to UBS, the pair EUR/CHF may hit the 1.1000 level or get even lower. Analysts at Commerzbank say that if euro drops below 1.1023 it will eased down to stabilize in the 1.0800 area. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8544

"Mizuho: forecasts for EUR/USD"(2011-09-02) Currency strategists at Mizuho updated forecasts for EUR/USD. According to the specialists, the single currency will be steadily rising versus the greenback to reach $1.5000 in a year from now. The analysts see euro strengthening to $1.4300 in September and to $1.4650 in 3 months. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8542

"RBC: comments on USD/CAD"(2011-09-02) Analysts at Royal Bank of Canada say that if Canadian dollar rises too steeply and gets too high versus its US counterpart, it will start affecting the nation’s economy. The negative economic impact, in its turn, will pull loonie lower, so the self-correction will happen. The specialists don’t rule of the possibility of USD/CAD slipping to 2007 minimum, but they think that the pair won’t stay low for long. This year Canadian currency had a series of ups and downs. Although in the second quarter Canadian economy contracted by 0.4% on the annual basis, the majority of economists expect this decline to be a short-lived correction. Comparing 2 nations, Canada has healthier fiscal system and greater weighting to commodities. If commodity sector is strong, loonie will perform quite well. According to RBC, from the point of Canada's economic fundamentals 1.0000/0.9520 range is normal for USD/CAD. It’s also necessary to note that RBC is concerned about the impact of the euro-zone debt crisis on the global economy. The specialists note that investors have to be prepared for an extended period of slow growth both in the United States and Europe. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8540

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"Barclays Capital sees potential for pound’s advance"(2011-09-01) Analysts at Barclays Capital believe that if Switzerland and Japan manage to stop appreciation of their national currencies, British pound may strengthen. The specialists say that there are several reasons for that. Firstly, exports don’t account for a big part of UK GDP, secondly, sterling’s advance doesn’t tend to affect stock markets and, finally, pound may be undervalued. In addition, the investors won’t expect UK government to stem pound’s growth. Barclays underlines that the pair GBP/CHF showed better results than EUR/CHF when the SNB Vice President Tomas Jordan said on August 11about the possibility of pegging franc to euro. Pound also performed well when Japan intervened on August 4. The strategists say that the only potential negative effect on pound may come from Britain’s economic weakness. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8536

<p> </p> <div> </div> <div>"ING: SNB rate outlook"(2011-09-01)</div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>The specialists note that strong Swiss franc has seriously affected the national economy: according to the data released today Switzerland’s economic growth slowed down from 0.6% in the first 3 months of the year to 0.4% in the second quarter. In their view, the same pressure will be seen on the figures for the third quarter. </div> <div> </div> <div>The effect of SNB's recent rate and liquidity injections will be seen in the final quarter of the year. Never the less, ING believes that the central bank won’t be able to ensure 2% growth rate in 2011.</div> <div> </div> <div> </div><div> </div> <div> Chart. Daily EUR/CHF </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8534</div>

"UBS: we face the crisis of capitalism"(2011-09-01) George Magnus, economist at UBS regards the current crisis in the developed nations as the crisis in capitalism: companies seeking for greater profits and productivity are cutting jobs. As a result, income inequality in the US approached the highest level since the 1920s. The specialist advises the policymakers to turn to Karl Marx for the possible solutions. In his view, it’s necessary to lower employer payroll taxes and to create fiscal incentives to encourage companies to hire people, to allow eligible households restructure mortgage debt and to ease capital adequacy requirements for well-capitalized and well-structured banks so that they could credit smaller companies. Magnus proposes European creditors to extend the lower interest rates and longer payment terms proposed for Greece. According to the analyst, instead of QE programs central banks should target nominal GDP growth rate. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8532

<p> </p> <div> </div> <div>"BMO Capital expects good NFP data"(2011-09-01)</div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>US August Non-Farm Payrolls data are released tomorrow at 4:30 pm (GMT+4).</div> <div> </div> <div>Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project that the number of jobs in the United States increased in August by 75K after gaining 117K in July. The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 9.1%.</div> <div> </div> <div>ADP report showed that the number of employed in American private sector rose by 91K versus 109K in July.</div> <div> </div> <div>The Federal Reserve’s Chairman Ben Bernanke claimed in Jackson Hole that the nation’s economic growth was insufficient to achieve sustained reductions in unemployment.</div> <div> </div> <div>Analysts at BMO Capital believe that the data may surpass the expectations. The specialists advise investors to take risk selling US dollar versus its Canadian counterpart in the short term targeting 0.9520 and stopping at 0.9920.</div> <div> </div> <div> </div><div> </div> <div>Chart. Daily USD/CAD </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8530</div>

"Wells Fargo: bullish middle-term forecast for NZD/USD"(2011-09-01) In August New Zealand’s dollar weakened versus its US counterpart falling from the August 1 maximum at 0.8841 to end the month in the 0.8500 area. However, analysts at Wells Fargo are still bullish on NZD/USD in the medium term. Among the positive factors for kiwi the specialists cite recovery in the country's economic activity and higher inflation that increases the possibility of the RBNZ rate hike. The specialists expect New Zealand­­­­'s dollar to recover paring last month’s decline. In their view, in the first half of 2012 the pair will trade at record highs in the 0.9100 region. Chart. Daily NZD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8528

"Daiwa Securities: Japan can’t conduct interventions frequently"(2011-09-01) According to the government survey of 61 large manufacturers, 63% of respondents are calling for sustained currency market intervention to weaken yen. The participants of the survey see the average rate of USD/JPY in a fiscal year through March 2012 at 81.10 yen and EUR/JPY – at 112.80 yen. Never the less, analysts at Daiwa Securities claim that it’s difficult for Japanese monetary authorities to conduct currency interventions frequently. There are political obstacles as such moves would be criticized by other leading nations. In addition, it’s very hard to reverse the market that keeps regarding yen as a safe haven against the global growth concerns and euro zone’s debt crisis. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8526

"Mizuho: risk aversion eased, yen weakened"(2011-09-01) China’s Manufacturing PMI rose from 29-month minimum of 50.7 in July to 50.9 in August. Currency strategists at Mizuho note that investors’ risk aversion has decreased. That made Japanese yen weaken versus the majority of its counterparts. The pair USD/JPY reached week’s maximum at 77.23 yen. The MSCI Asia Pacific index of regional shares is rising during the 6th day in a row. According to the data of Japan’s Ministry of Finance, last week Japanese invested 146.3 billion yen ($1.9 billion) overseas. That’s the most since last September. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8524

"UBS and Deutsche Bank: comments on EUR / CHF"(2011-08-31) UBS analysts believe that despite the current pullback below 1.1700, the single currency will continue to rise against the Swiss franc, if she could use the support at 1.1630 area. If the pair EUR / CHF bounces up from these levels, it can go up to 1.1897, 1.1973, and then to 1.2172. Strategists at Deutsche Bank believe that the euro will not be able to go above 1.25 against the Swiss franc. From their point of view, the factors that have traditionally determined the dynamics of the EUR / CHF - Swiss balance of payments surplus and the debt problems of the euro area - again in force. The bank stressed that if the new European currency close to parity with its Swiss rival, then a natural step the Swiss National Bank will become a large-scale currency intervention. Schedule. Daily EUR / CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8522

"TD Bank: Canada’s economic forecast"(2011-08-31) Analysts at TD Bank reduced Canada’s economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 2.3% in 2011 and from 2.5% to 2% in 2012. According to the specialists, Canadian economy is very tightly connected with the US one, so if American GDP contracts, the same will happen with Canada’s economy. The bank expects that the United States will avoid recession in the coming quarters, but if it's wrong that would mean serious problems for Canada. According to the data released today, Canada’s GDP contracted by 0.4% on the annual basis 3.6% advance in the first 3 months of 2011. US annual economic growth pace in Q2 was revised downwards from 1.3% to 1%. Сhart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8520

"WSJ: What Greel default would mean for Europe?"(2011-08-31) Economists at Wall Street Journal note that the yield on Greek 1-year government bills hit 60% yesterday. In their view, the nation’s default seems inevitable and its terms will be extremely brutal for investors with recovery rates possibly even lower than the currently anticipated 50%. It’s very difficult to foresee the consequences in case of Greek default, but the economists believe that they’ll be beyond expectations. According to the Bank for International Settlements, European banks have a total exposure of 94 billion euro to the Greek economy (French institutions account for 40 billion euro, while the German ones – for 24 billion euro). The International Accounting Standards Board is worried that European financial institutions have been fudging their exposure to Greece, so the situation may be actually much dimmer. The IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said that European banks need urgent recapitalization. WSJ points out that the banks should seek private resources at first, but then they are to be granted with public funds if necessary. If the banks get no additional capital, there will be a significant credit contraction derailing economic growth of the core nations of the currency union. As a result, the demand for exports of the peripheral countries will fall causing a downward spiral throughout the single-currency region. The WSJ analysts worry that it may be too late for recapitalization now as investors won’t surely be eager to pump more capital into the banks. In their opinion, such efforts should be taken a year ago. According to WSJ, European authorities face a choice – to rescue banks or to save peripheral European economies – the first option seems to be more costly as until now Greece was supported mainly be pledges of action. Wall Street Journal warns that the tensions between the region’s nations are likely to escalate: the European Financial Stability Facility may be seriously affected by Finland’s insistence to get additional collateral from Greece. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8516

"Standard & Poor's about European economy"(2011-08-31) Standard & Poor's warned yesterday that the risk of double dip recession in the euro area has increased due to slowdown of the region’s economic growth. The rating agency notes that high unemployment and recent slump of equities may affect spending – S&P is going to watch the dynamics of consumer demand in the coming quarters. The specialists still think, however, that Europe will be able to avoid the double dip due to such drivers of growth as demand from emerging markets and the recovery, though sluggish, in corporate capital spending. Euro zone GDP growth slowed from 0.8% in the first 3 months of the year (q/q) to 0.2% in the second quarter casting doubts on the euro area’s prospects over the next 18 months through 2012. In addition, the agency notes that there’s still strong divergence on the European nations’ economic growth. Standard & Poor's lowered the region’s growth forecast from 1.9% to 1.7% this year and from 1.8% to 1.5% in 2012. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8514

"Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD"(2011-08-31) The advance of the single currency versus the greenback stopped at $1.4550 – between July 4 maximum at $1.4577 and July 27 maximum at $1.4535 – and euro eased to $1.4400/50. Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that EUR/USD may slide lower, to $1.4316. At the same time, the specialists say that in the longer term the outlook for the pair will remain bullish as long as it’s trading above 2-month support line at $1.4272. If euro breaks down this level, it will be poised down to August minimum at $1.4055. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8512

"UBS: EUR/USD and AUD/USD technical levels"(2011-08-31) Analysts at UBS are bullish on the single currency and Australian dollar versus the greenback. Here’s their technical forecast. EUR/USD Resistance: $1.4578; Target: $1.4697 (June 7 maximum); Support: $1.4328, $1.4259. Chart. Daily EUR/USD AUD/USD Resistance: $1.0786; Target: $1.1007 (late July maximums); Support: $1.0561. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8510

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"Commerzbank: technical comments on EUR/CHF"(2011-08-30) Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the single currency has broken above 4-month downtrend resistance line at 1.1772 and tested the levels above the 32.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 2010 to 2011. In their view, this means that the pair EUR/CHF has potential for an advance to 1.2346/1.2400 (December 2010 and March 2011 minimums and June 2011 peak). The long-term target for euro is set at 1.2708 (55-week MA). However, in the short run the bank expects the European currency to stall below the psychological resistance at 1.20. In their view, support for the pair is found at 1.1809 (June minimum) and 1.1557 (August 17 maximum). Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8499

"Citigroup is bullish on USD/CHF and EUR/CHF"(2011-08-30) Technical analysts at Citigroup believe that as the pair USD/CHF managed to close yesterday above the 55-day MA at 0.8089, it will be able to rise to the 200-day MA at 0.8921 climbing to the levels last seen in May. Chart. Daily USD/CHF The specialists also think that the pair EUR/CHF will reach 1.24 after on August 26 it closed above the 55-day MA at 1.1529. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8496

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