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"Mizuho, Nomura: euro remains under pressure"(2011-10-04) Analysts at Mizuho Securities note that there isn’t much progress in containing the sovereign crisis. In their view, the euro area risks falling into recession. The specialists believe that in these circumstances the single currency will stay under pressure. According to the bank, euro seems oversold and may recover a bit, but this upward correction will be short-lived. Currency strategists at Nomura Securities think that the single currency may fall to the lowest levels since the beginning of the debt crisis in the $1.1800 area. European finance ministers considered “technical revisions” to the second bailout package adopted in July during their 2-day meeting. The deal foresaw investors contributing 50 billion euro ($66 billion) to a 159 billion-euro rescue. That “private sector involvement” includes debt swaps and rollovers. According to Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, the revisions may be necessary as the situation has changed since July. The decision about granting Greece the next tranche of financial aid was postponed to the middle of October. Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said that the nation will be able to repay its debts until the middle of November. Chart. Weekly EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8849

"UBS: bullish forecast for USD/CAD"(2011-10-04) The greenback rose versus its Canadian counterpart from July minimums in the 0.9400 zone to the levels above 1.0500. Currency strategists at UBS are bullish on USD/CAD as the Canadian trade flows worsen and the interest rate support is fading. In their view, the treat for CAD is in the growing reliance on foreign buying of debt denominated in loonie and rising domestic leverage levels. According to the bank, the pair will reach 1.1000 by the end of the year. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8847

"Goldman Sachs cut forecasts for euro"(2011-10-04) Analysts at Goldman Sachs reduced their 2012 global economic growth forecast from 4.3% to 3.5%. The specialists think that during the next several quarters the euro zone’s core nations such as Germany and France will go through mild recession, while the peripheral nations of the currency union will suffer much more. The bank also revised down 3-month forecast for EUR/USD from $1.40 to $1.38 and for EUR/JPY from 108 to 106 yen. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8845

"UBS: ECB will cut rates on Thursday"(2011-10-04) Currency strategists at UBS believe that the European Central Bank will reduce its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 1.0% on October 6. According to the specialists, the downside risks for EUR/USD in the near-term come from the potential ECB easing rather than from the possibility of Greece’s default. The bank underlines that the rates markets have priced in 25-basis-point cut, but the forex markets haven’t. If the ECB loosens its policy, long-term investors – central banks and sovereign wealth funds – will sell the single currency. As a result, UBS thinks that EUR/USD will move down to $1.20/1.30. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8842

"Deutsche Bank: GBP/USD forecast"(2011-10-04) Analysts at Deutsche Bank think that sterling’s decline versus 2011 maximums versus the greenback in the $1.6740 area will continue. In their view, pound will stay under pressure due to high possibility of the second quantitative easing program in UK. According to the bank, pound will fall to $1.5100 in the fourth quarter of 2011 and then consolidate between $1.4800 and $1.4900 during major part of 2012 before jumping to $1.5600 at the end of next year. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8841

"ANZ: the possibility of the RBA rate cut increased"(2011-10-04) Australian dollar fell to 1-year minimum versus its US counterpart at $1.9413. It happened as the Reserve bank of Australia reported that the easing inflation pressure may allow it to reduce the borrowing costs in order to encourage economic growth. The central bank’s Governor Glenn Stevens said that inflation may now be more consistent with the 2-3% target in 2012 and 2013. The market now expects that the RBA will cut its benchmark interest rate from 4.75% to 4.25% be November and by 50 basis points more by the end of the year, claims ANZ. The specialists point out that it would be necessary to watch Q3 inflation reading as it would be the basis for November decision. Analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia believe that AUD/USD may drop below $0.9000. Technical analysts at Commerzbank think that as long as the pair stays below $0.9580 (23.6% retracement of the entire 2001 — 2011 move), it risks sliding to $0.9407/.9390 (late 2009 and early 2010 maximums). Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8839

"Forecast Pte: technical comments on EUR/JPY"(2011-10-04) Technical analysts at Forecast Pte claim that he single currency may fall below 100 yen. The specialists point out that euro’s MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) is in the downtrend: the indicator was found today at minus 1.8267 that’s below the signal line of minus 1.6881. The pair EUR/JPY hit today the 100.74 level, the lowest since June 2001. According to the strategists, euro may slide to 96.84 yen, the level last visited on December 11, 2000. Chart. Daily EUR/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8837

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"BMO Capital: trading recommendations ahead of NFP"(2011-10-03) US September Non-Farm Payrolls data is released on Friday, October 7, at 12:30 pm GMT. The figures will be watched more than ever after US jobs growth stagnated in August. Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch expect to see the figure of 75,000, but warn that the risk is to the downside. Strategists at BMO Capital say that if the market expects NFP to be somewhere close to 50,000 and the indicator posts 70,000, one should sell USD/CAD. If the published NFP figure finds itself between 70,000 and 30,000, it would be better to refrain from actions. If the figure comes below under 30,000, the specialists recommend buying the greenback versus Swedish krona. According to BMO, the first scenario is the most likely. As a result, the specialists advise investors to sell US dollar versus its Canadian counterpart at 1.0400 stopping just above 1.0470 and targeting 1.0155. At the same time, economists at J.P. Morgan point out that investors need to be cautious with trade like this watching other data released on Friday – Canadian nonfarm payrolls and Ivey PMI survey. US September Non-Farm Payrolls data is released on Friday, October 7, at 12:30 pm GMT. The figures will be watched more than ever after US jobs growth stagnated in August. Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch expect to see the figure of 75,000, but warn that the risk is to the downside. Strategists at BMO Capital say that if the market expects NFP to be somewhere close to 50,000 and the indicator posts 70,000, one should sell USD/CAD. If the published NFP figure finds itself between 70,000 and 30,000, it would be better to refrain from actions. If the figure comes below under 30,000, the specialists recommend buying the greenback versus Swedish krona. According to BMO, the first scenario is the most likely. As a result, the specialists advise investors to sell US dollar versus its Canadian counterpart at 1.0400 stopping just above 1.0470 and targeting 1.0155. At the same time, economists at J.P. Morgan point out that investors need to be cautious with trade like this watching other data released on Friday – Canadian nonfarm payrolls and Ivey PMI survey. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8835

"Euro: this week’s events and analysts’ comments"(2011-10-03) The single currency remains near the 8-month minimum versus the greenback at $1.3313 hit earlier today and close to the 10-year minimum against Japanese yen at 101.92 hit on September 26. The market is concerned about the possibility of Greece’s default and the health of the euro zone's banking sector. Coming events The focus this week will be on the monetary policy and growth. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday, October 6. Some investors are looking forward to a 25-basis-point rate cut even despite high September inflation data. The ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet speaks on Tuesday, October 4, at 1:00 pm GMT. It’s also necessary to note that today begins 2-day meeting of the European finance ministers. The Ecofin is expected to put pressure on Greece to implement agreed structural reforms and to discuss the ways of increasing the European Financial Stability Facility’s (EFSF) financial firepower. The decision about granting Greece the sixth tranche of the bailout – 8 billion-euro ($11 billion) – is postponed to the middle of October as the nation tries to reduce its huge budget shortfall. Bearish forecasts UBS: EUR/USD shorts will increase. ING: euro will fall to $1.30/1.31. Commerzbank: the pair will slide down to $1.2860 (2010 minimum) and $1.2000. Key resistance in the short term is seen at $1.3937 (September 15 maximum). Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8825

"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF"(2011-10-03) Weekly USD/CHF The greenback keeps gradually strengthening versus Swiss franc. Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen are ready to form the “golden cross” (1). The Ichimoku Cloud is the only obstacle on the pair’s way up. Chart. Weekly USD/CHF Daily USD/CHF On the daily chart US currency continued consolidation above the Turning line (1) that is acting as support (1). The next support is the Standard line (2). The rising Ichimoku Cloud has already become wide enough that means that the bulls have finally managed to regain the lead. All lines of the indicator (1, 2, 3 and 4) have turned horizontal. The general technical picture is positive. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8823

Weekly USD/JPY On the weekly chart the pair keeps trading between 76 and 78 yen as it has been doing since the beginning of August. High demand for yen is combined with risk of BoJ interventions. At the same time, it’s necessary to note that the Turning line went sharply down (1), while the Standard line also began deviating down (2). The bearish Ichimoku Cloud has also widened a bit (3, 4). Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) still hold the strong “dead cross” in place (5) providing resistance for the prices. Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Daily USD/JPY On the daily USD/JPY chart the prices were moving gradually up during the last several days – the greenback has overcome the Turning line (1) and got support from it and even ested the Standard line (2). Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) still hold in place the strong “dead cross” (5) formed below Kumo. As a result, all the signals mean that it would be very hard for the bulls to keep moving up – the pair still finds itself under pressure provided by the bearish Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4). Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8822

<p> </p> <div></div> <div> </div> <div>"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY"(2011-10-03)</div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>Weekly USD/JPY</div> <div> </div> <div>On the weekly chart the pair keeps trading between 76 and 78 yen as it has been doing since the beginning of August. High demand for yen is combined with risk of BoJ interventions.</div> <div> </div> <div>At the same time, it’s necessary to note that the Turning line went sharply down (1), while the Standard line also began deviating down (2). The bearish Ichimoku Cloud has also widened a bit (3, 4). </div> <div> </div> <div>Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) still hold the strong “dead cross” in place (5) providing resistance for the prices.</div> <div> </div> <div> </div><div> </div> <div>Chart. Weekly USD/JPY </div> <div> </div> <div>Daily USD/JPY</div> <div> </div> <div>On the daily USD/JPY chart the prices were moving gradually up during the last several days – the greenback has overcome the Turning line (1) and got support from it and even ested the Standard line (2). </div> <div> </div> <div>Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) still hold in place the strong “dead cross” (5) formed below Kumo. </div> <div> </div> <div>As a result, all the signals mean that it would be very hard for the bulls to keep moving up – the pair still finds itself under pressure provided by the bearish Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4).</div> <div> </div> <div>[ img] http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/3792/315484928elqisk.gif[/img]</div><div> </div> <div>Chart. Daily USD/JPY </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8822</div>

"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2011-10-03) Weekly GBP/USD The prices remain within the Ichimoku Cloud. All lines of the indicator stay horizontal (1, 2, 4), so sterling is likely to consolidate within Kumo. The Turning line (1) and the Standard line (2) as well as the upper border of the Ichimoku Cloud act as resistance for GBP/USD. The Cloud has recently switched to the bearish mode. However, the negative Kumo is still very thin – the bears haven’t gained much power yet. As a result, the bulls may be able to strengthen their positions. It’s quite possible that the pound will manage to rebound from Senkou Span B (3). Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD On the daily pound managed last week to overcome resistance provided by Tenkan-sen (1) and consolidate above it. Never the less, at the beginning of this week the pair once again tested the levels below the Turning line (1). The descending Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4) keeps widening that means that the bears are dominating at the market. The Standard line (2) also acts as resistance. The previous minimums hit on September 22 and 23 play the role of support. At the moment all the lines of the indicator are directed horizontally (1, 2, 3, 4) that means that pound will likely remain within the current range moving sideways. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8821

"Deutsche Bank: EUR/USD is poised to decline"(2011-10-03) Analysts at Deutsche Bank point out that the European currency has fallen versus the greenback from the May maximums in the $1.4940 area to the levels below $1.3400. In their view, euro’s decline is going to continue: the specialists expect EUR/USD to keep weakening during the next 12 months. According to the bank, the pair will fall to $1.3000 in 3 months, then slide to $1.2700 by the end of the first quarter of 2012 and then reach $1.2500 in 12 months time. The strategists think that euro’s dynamics will depend on the actions the euro zone’s policymakers will make to stem the crisis. Here it’s necessary to take the account the monetization risks and the downgrade risk of the member nations and the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) itself. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8817

"Wells Fargo: bearish EUR/USD forecast"(2011-10-03) Analysts at Wells Fargo are bearish on the single currency in the medium term. In their view, the pair EUR/USD will drop to $1.3200 by the end of this year and may slide to $1.2500 by the end of 2012. The specialists believe that the weak economic outlook will hamper the results achieved due to the policymakers’ actions. In addition, the ECB’s approach has changed from the hawkish mode to the more dovish one. The central bank is likely to cut rates or conduct liquidity easing measures during the next few months. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8816

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"Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD"(2011-09-30) Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that British pound has finished its upward correction versus the greenback from 1-year minimum at $1.5325 hit on September 22 as it reached this week the levels in the $1.5700 area. The specialists think that GBP/USD will resume its decline. In their view, the sell-off of sterling will be triggered when it dips below $1.5500. According to the bank, support for the pair is found at $1.5297. In the longer term, British currency is poised down to the 2009-2011 uptrend line at $1.4973. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8807

"Fitch and S&P downgraded New Zealand"(2011-09-30) New Zealand’s dollar fell to the 6-month minimum versus the greenback at $0.7626 after Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings downgraded the nation’s debt from AA+ to AA with stable outlook. The agencies explained their decision by New Zealand’s high external debt and its persistent current account deficit. Strategists at Citigroup underline that Fitch’s and S&P’s move seems surprising as everyone has been aware about these problems for a long time. It’s also necessary to note that the survey conducted by ANZ National Bank that was released today showed that New Zealand’s business sentiment has worsened: only 30.3% of companies expect the economy will improve during the next 12 months compared with 34.4% in August. In addition, China, New Zealand’s second-biggest export market, reported the longest contraction of the PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) in 2 years. Analysts at Westpac note that the global outlook remains rather discouraging, so commodity currencies like Aussie and kiwi will likely stay under pressure. In the view, New Zealand’s dollar may slide to $0.7500. The pair NZD/USD lost 10% in September, while AUD/USD dropped by 8.8%. Chart. Daily NZD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8805

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"Germany gave green light for EFSF"(2011-09-29) The single currency keeps trading on the upside as German parliament approved the expansion of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) – there were 523 in favor of legislation versus 85 votes against it. Tomorrow there will be another vote in the upper house, or Bundesrat. The bill enables EFSF to buy the bonds of the indebted peripheral nations and offer emergency loans to governments. The fund is boosted from 440 to 780 billion euro, the amount guaranteed by Germany increased from 123 to 211 billion euro. The EFSF extension has been already ratified in Slovenia, Belgium, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Spain, France, Portugal and Finland. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase expect euro to continue its “remarkable resilience” until the end of the year and end 2011 at $1.38. Strategists at Lloyds Bank say that the risk of the currency union’s disorderly breakup decreased. In their view, EUR/USD will finish 2011 at $1.40, though the specialists don’t rule out the possibility of euro’s slump to $1.32 before that. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8803

"Citigroup reduced global economic forecast"(2011-09-29) Analysts at Citigroup revised down their global economic growth forecasts for the second time in less than a month. The specialists lowered 2011 growth estimate from 3.2% to 3.0% and the 2012 one – from 3.7% to only 2.9%. According to the classification of the IMF and the World Bank, 2% global growth means is considered as global recession. The bank cut China's 2012 GDP growth rate from 9% to 8.7%. The outlooks for the United States, Europe, Japan, Canada and the UK were also reduced. Citigroup expects a long period of negative real interest rates in the main advanced economies. The analysts think that the ECB is likely to cut the borrowing costs, while the Bank of England will start the second round of quantitative easing in the next 1-2 months. In their view, Moody's and Standard & Poor's will keep downgrading euro zone nations such as Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal and Cyprus. All in all, the economists advise investors to be cautious, avoid risks and favor US dollar and Japanese yen. Chart. Daily EUR/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8801

"Deutsche Bank: recommendation for EUR/USD"(2011-09-29) Analysts at Deutsche Bank note that there’s 84% correlation between the size of the Eurosystem's consolidated balance sheet and the dynamics of the single currency versus the greenback. So, when the balance sheet expands, EUR/USD weakens and vice versa. However, the specialists say that as the 2 rates are moving in tandem rather than one reacting to the other – that makes it difficult to use this relationship for trading strategies. There may be the case, though, when this information will be quite useful – if European debt crisis is solved by some kind of balance sheet expansion. The specialists think that the odds of such outcome are high. In their view, the euro area will either use the stabilization fund or the ECB will continue buying debt of the peripheral countries. As a result, most ways which don’t involve immediate sovereign ratings implications lead to a continuation of the ESCB’s balance sheet expansion and, consequently, to euro’s depreciation. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8799

"Bernanke: unemployment may lead to the “national crisis”"(2011-09-29) Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned yesterday that the United States finds itself under threat of a “national crisis”. Bernanke underlines that the situation at the labor market remains intense: the unemployment rate stays at or above 9% since April 2009 and almost 45% of the unemployed are jobless for already 6 months or more. The Fed’s head reiterated that monetary policy along can’t solve the country’s problems and spur its sluggish economic growth. In his view, it’s very important to breathe life in the housing markets. Bernanke also pointed out that the US should use the experience of many emerging market economies supporting strong economic growth through “disciplined fiscal policies”, “encouraging private capital formation and undertaking necessary public investments”, reports Bloomberg. Last week American central bank decided to lengthen long-term interest rates by replacing $400 billion of short-term debt in its portfolio with longer-term Treasuries. At the same time, 3 members of the FOMC opposed this decision and spoke against further monetary stimulus. Despite 2 rounds of quantitative easing, which cost the Fed $2.3 trillion, US growth has stalled. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8797