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"EUR/USD: fundamental factors"(2011-10-11) The single currency approached the 3-week maximum versus the greenback as it’s testing the levels in the $1.3700 area. It happened as the risk sentiment improved after Chinese state-run fund announced that it had started buying the shares of the nation’s biggest banks (Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (1398), China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of China). The fund intends to continue such practices without unveiling any details about the amount of investments. Analysts at Nomura note that Chinese government regards the equities of the domestic banks as cheap and its demand will encourage the entire Asian stock market. The specialists claim that the market in the risk-on mode, so one should stay away from the refuges such as US dollar and Japanese yen and move to the higher-yielding ones. The MSCI Asia Pacific index of shares added 2.1%. Yesterday the leaders of Germany and France pledged to come up with a plan to recapitalize the region’s banks by the G20 Meeting on November 3. At the same time, strategists at RBS doubt that European authorities manage to resolve all key issues by the end of the month. The negative factor is that Slovakia’s coalition hasn’t managed yet to come to agreement on the nation’s participation in EFSF. Slovakia is the only member of the currency union that hasn’t ratified the measure (Malta did so yesterday). Today the nation’s lawmakers vote again. Analysts at National Australia Bank warn that euro may slump in case Slovakia’s parliament votes against ratification. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8899

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"Wells Fargo: loonie will rebound the next year"(2011-10-10) Canadian dollar fell to the 1-year minimum this month – the pair USD/CAD reached on October 4 maximum at 1.0657. Loonie weakened on the concerns about the world’s economic slowdown. Analysts at Wells Fargo claim, however, that once global volatility subsides, Canada’s currency will have good chances for rebound. The Bank of Canada is still less likely to cut rates in the coming months than many other central banks. The BOC could even begin tightening policy by middle of 2012. As a result, though the near-term outlook for loonie is bearish, it’s likely to recover the next year. According to the bank, in 2012 the pair USD/CAD will return below the parity on a sustained basis. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8897

"Societe Generale advises to sell EUR/CAD"(2011-10-10) Analysts at Societe Generale note that better-than-expected US September Non-Farm Payrolls reading allows hoping for US economic recovery. According to the data released on Friday American employers added 103,000 jobs last month versus the forecast of 55,000, while Canada’s payrolls increased by 60,900 exceeding the projection of 15,200. The specialists believe that US economy is likely to get stronger in the final quarter of the year. In their view, to benefit from such expectations one should sell the single currency versus Canadian dollar. The United States is Canada’s main trading partner, so its growth will be positive for loonie, while euro will likely stay under pressure due to the looming debt problems. Societe Generale recommends opening shorts on EUR/CAD at 1.3900 stopping above 1.4100 and targeting 1.3100. Chart. Daily EUR/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8895

"Merkel and Sarkozy promised to recapitalize European banks"(2011-10-10) German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy pledged to come up with a plan of recapitalizing European banks at the G20 summit that will take place on November 3. According to the IMF, the region’s banks need 200 billion euro of capital. It becomes more and more evident that the crisis reached the core euro zone nations: French-Belgian bank group Dexia fell victim of the liquidity squeeze. Belgian government announced that it would pay 4 billion euro ($5.4 billion) to take over the local consumer-lending unit, while the rest the group will be financed by the state guarantees worth 90 billion euro ($120 billion). As for Greece, Merkel and Sarkozy underlined that they are waiting for the verdict of Troika experts – the EU, the IMF and the ECB – to determine the next step to keep the indebted nation in the currency bloc. The single currency climbed today versus the greenback from the minimum at $1.3377 to the levels above $1.3550. Analysts at Commerzbank note that the market’s negative reaction on Spain’s and Italy’s downgrades by Fitch on Friday was exaggerated. In their view, that explains today’s strengthening of euro. Strategists at Citi think that EUR/USD won’t be able to sustain gains as the European authorities have actually done nothing new and investors will soon return to the gloomy mood due to the absence of the details of Merkel-Sarkozy’s plan. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8893

"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF"(2011-10-10) Weekly USD/CHF On the weekly USD/CHF chart Kijun-sen (1) and Tenkan-sen (2), as it was expected, formed the “golden cross”. This is the bullish signal, though rather weak as the lines have intersected below Kumo (1). The Turning line (2) is moving up – the short-term trend is bullish, though the horizontal Standard line (1) means that the prices may consolidate for some time taking into account the fact how close they have come to the resistance provided by Senkou Span A (3). At the same time, the descending Ichimoku Cloud (4) has narrowed that means that the prices will likely enter Kumo. Chart. Weekly USD/CHF Daily USD/CHF The Turning line (1) still supports US currency. The next support is provided by the Standard line (2). The rising Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4) has become wide enough and keeps widening that means that the bulls finally managed to regain power. The general technical picture seems to be positive. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8885

"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY"(2011-10-10) Weekly USD/JPY On the weekly chart the pair remains trapped in the range between 76 and 78 yen within which it has been trading since the beginning August. The declining Turning line (1) doesn’t let the prices move up pressing the greenback to the minimums. The Standard line has also gone sharply down (2). The bearish Ichimoku Cloud keep widening (3, 4). Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) continue holding the strong “dead cross” in place providing resistance for the prices. Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Daily USD/JPY On the daily chart USD/JPY consolidated in the area of the Turning line (1). The longer-term Standard line (2) and Senkou Span B (4) are directed horizontally hinting at further sideways trend. Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen still hold the strong “dead cross” (5) formed below Kumo. The pair keeps being pressed by the wide descending Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4). Any attempts of the bulls to get higher will meet serious resistance. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8884

"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2011-10-10) Weekly GBP/USD Last week the bears tested the levels below the Ichimoku Cloud, but then the bulls has managed to improve the situation and the pair ended up forming a bearish candle with long lower shadow. After declining a bit the Standard line (1) and the Turning line (2) went horizontally showing that the prices are likely to keep consolidating within Kumo. Pound is supported by Senkou Span B (3). Tenkan-sen (1) and the Kijun-sen as well as the upper border of the Ichimoku Cloud play the role of resistance for GBP/USD. The Cloud itself which has recently switched to the negative mode (4) remains very thin, so the bears still lack power. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD On the daily chart sterling was trading around Tenkan-sen (1): at the beginning of the week the pair broke down support provided by the Turning line, but on Friday it once again managed to close higher. Now the horizontal conversion lone has retaken the supporting function. The descending Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4) keeps widening due to the declining Senkou Span S (3) showing that the bears are in change on this timeframe. The Standard line that’s moving down acts as resistance for the prices (2). The bulls may be able to push pound to its levels before British currency resumes its decline. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8883

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"RBS: Aussie may return to the parity versus the greenback"(2011-10-07) Currency strategists at RBS note that though commodity currencies have been weakening so far (Australian, New Zealand’s and Canadian dollars all lost 8-10% in the third quarter) the situation is likely to change. The specialists who have developed “economic surprise index” believe that the markets’ sentiment in the fourth quarter is going to improve as the flood of the negative news will abate, even though the Europe will keep facing serious debt issues. In their view, the worst for AUD, NZD and CAD might be over, though they don’t completely rule out the risk that these currencies retest their Q3 minimums. Aussie seems to be especially attractive as Australia has the biggest interest rates that lure investors with yield and if the Reserve Bank of Australia doesn’t cut the borrowing costs, the nation’s currency would get additional driver. According to RBS, the pair AUD/USD will return to the parity versus the greenback by the end of 2011. As for the single currency, the strategists see further depreciation, but don’t expect the currency union to collapse. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8879

"The market’s looking forward to NFP release"(2011-10-07) The main piece of data for today is the US September Non-Farm Payrolls figure released at 12:30 GMT. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News believe that the number of jobs increased last month by 55,000. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 9.1% for the third month in a row. In August the number of employed remained unchanged versus the forecast of 68,000 increase. The current situation of uncertainly about the global economic prospects and the concerns about European and US debt ruins American consumer and business confidence that, in its turn, affects spending and hiring. Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate the chance of recession in the United States during the next year by 40%. Specialists at TD Securities say that for the jobless rate to decline by 1 percentage point over a year payrolls should rise by 200,000 a month. During the 18-month recession that ended in June 2009 the nation’s economy lost 8.75 million jobs – only 1.9 million of them was recovered through August. US President Barack Obama proposed a $447-billion plan in September aimed to maintain growth and pushing down the unemployment rate next year. As the market thinks that the number of jobs added last month in the US won’t be enough to curb unemployment, the mood is far from optimistic that supports demand for the greenback as the safe haven. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8875

"ECB announced the measures to support euro area banks"(2011-10-07) The European Central Bank announced new liquidity measures yesterday – 12- and 13-month loans in October and December, giving banks access to unlimited cash through January 2013, and the resumption of 40-billion euro covered bonds purchases aimed to encourage lending. Strategists at UBS say that the measures should bolster the prospects of renewed net inflows to the euro zone. The specialists also point out that the ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet didn’t hint at a rate cut, so both the single currency and stocks will get support. In addition, the European Commission is pushing for a coordinated capital injection into banks, while German chancellor Angela Merkel claimed that Germany would not hesitate to recapitalize banks. On Sunday, October 9, Merkel is meeting French President Nicolas Sarkozy. The pair EUR/USD rose from the 8-month minimum at $1.3145 hit on October 4 to the levels above $1.3400. Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman believe that euro will be able to climb to $1.36/1.37, but then the demand for it weakens again and it will start falling again to end 2011 at $1.29. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8873

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"Commerzbank: franc’s strengthening versus the greenback"(2011-10-06) Swiss franc is declining versus its American counterpart on the talk that the Swiss National Bank may conduct more measures aimed at depreciation of the national currency. The SNB reported that its currency reserves rose from 253.4 billion francs in August to 282.4 billion francs ($306 billion) at the end of September. Last month the central bank pegged franc to euro and pledged to buy unlimited amounts of foreign currencies in order to keep the pair EUR/CHF above $1.20. Many investors now think that the SNB may raise this threshold, notes Commerzbank. It’s necessary to note that the interventions increase the money supply strengthening inflation pressure. Switzerland’s consumer prices added 0.3% in September on the monthly basis after declining by 0.3% in August. The annual CPI growth was 0.5% versus the forecast of 0.3% and 0.2% advance in August. The pair USD/CHF rose from the record minimum at 0.7064 hit on August 9 to the levels above 0.9200. Resistance for the pair is situated at 0.9370 (March 2010 maximum) and 0.9400 (50% retracement of the decline from 2010 to 2011). Support levels are found at 0.9220 (daily minimum), 0.9185 (September 22 minimum) and 0.9145 (October 4 minimum). Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8871

"The BoE increased asset purchases. Analysts’ comments"(2011-10-06) The Bank of England has surprisingly increased the amount of asset purchases by 75 billion to 275 billion pounds. The analysts burst out with comments on this point. BNP Paribas: there will be more QE in the coming months. Deutsche Bank: pound will drop to $1.50 and will stay under pressure until the Federal Reserve hints at QE3. Commerzbank: the size of QE2 shows that the BoE is really concerned with the nation’s economic situation. The specialists say that sterling’ slump won’t be as big as it was when the first round was introduced. The bank doesn’t see any inflationary risks. Commerzbank recommends being short on GBP/USD and expecting EUR/GBP to strengthen to 0.88. Morgan Stanley: bearish outlook for British currency as the market was expecting QE2 not earlier than in November. GBP/USD is on its way down to $1.5175/1.5125. Capital Economics: the threat of recession in Britain is bigger than the one of inflation. The analysts doubt that the measure will manage to improve economic outlook. Danske Bank: the increase in the amount of purchases it bigger that the bank projected. The pair EUR/GBP is on its way up to 0.8750. Chart. Daily EUR/GBP Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8869

Just 1 Day left for the ending of “Predict NFP” Contest !!! Dear clients! Tomorrow is the last date of “Predict NFP”. Take part in “Predict NFP” contest, guess the non-farm payrolls indicator, which will be published at 12:30 GMT 07.10.11, and win an exclusive and stylish T-shirt from FBS! First one to post the right number or the closest one will be the winner of the contest and get an exclusive T-shirt from FBS. T-Shirt from FBS You may enter your guesses in the special topic of our group in Facebook http://www.facebook.com/topic.php?uid=137183862987521&topic=537 Just remind you tomorrow is the last date of “Predict NFP” We wish all the participants Good Luck! Contest rules: http://www.fbs.com/contest/nfp You may find some tips in our economic calendar: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/economic_calendar Work with FBS , be friends with FBS and be successful! (Best mini Forex Broker of 2010) Stay connected with FBS because its all about you!

"Sakakibara: yen will strengthen versus euro and US dollar"(2011-10-06) The market thinks that Japan could intervene to boost EUR/JPY and support national exporters with Europe’s consent if it pledged to lend the amounts of euro bought in the process of intervention to the European Financial Stability Facility through buying EFSF bonds. Eisuke Sakakibara, the former Japanese vice finance minister known as “Mr. Yen” for his ability to influence yen’s rate through both verbal and actual market interventions, believes that the United States and the euro area want to have weaker currencies in order to stimulate their economies. Sakakibara says that Japanese economy undermined by the devastating earthquake in March is recovering while the American and European ones are under threat of recession. As a result, in his opinion, European authorities would criticize any Japanese currency-market intervention meant to encourage euro. Sakakibara points out that yen’s appreciation versus the single currency is based on the economic fundamentals, so any unilateral steps of Japanese monetary authorities will be useless as they change the situation only for a very short period of time. According to the economist, the pair EUR/JPY that hit on Tuesday 10-year minimum at 100.74 yen will move down to the levels between 90 and 100 yen. As for the pair USD/JPY, Sakakibara expects it to drop below 75 yen and then below 70 yen in the coming weeks. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8867

"Reuters poll: expectations on USD/JPY"(2011-10-06) The poll conducted by Reuters among more than 60 banks and currency analysts showed that the specialists expect the pair USD/JPY to stay in the 77.00 area during the next 3 months, then rise to 78.00 yen in 6 months and to 80.00 in September 2012. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8865

"BarCap: ECB will looosen its monetary policy"(2011-10-06) Currency strategists at Barclays Capital believe that the European Central Bank will ease its monetary policy today through both conventional and unconventional steps. In their view, the ECB has several options, such as offering additional long-term refinancing operations, including 6 or 12 months' maturity, continuing of Italian and Spanish debt purchases, resume the covered bond purchase program, widening the interest rate corridor and reducing the benchmark interest rate. Barclays thinks that the central bank will employ all of the measures mentioned above. According to the specialists, the ECB will widen the interest rate corridor – the difference between deposit rate and refinancing rate – from 25 to 100 basis points and cut the borrowing costs from 1.50% to 1.25%. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8863

<p> </p> <div></div> <div> </div> <div> "BarCap: ECB will looosen its monetary policy"(2011-10-06)</div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>Currency strategists at Barclays Capital believe that the European Central Bank will ease its monetary policy today through both conventional and unconventional steps.</div> <div> </div> <div>In their view, the ECB has several options, such as offering additional long-term refinancing operations, including 6 or 12 months' maturity, continuing of Italian and Spanish debt purchases, resume the covered bond purchase program, widening the interest rate corridor and reducing the benchmark interest rate.</div> <div> </div> <div>Barclays thinks that the central bank will employ all of the measures mentioned above. According to the specialists, the ECB will widen the interest rate corridor – the difference between deposit rate and refinancing rate – from 25 to 100 basis points and cut the borrowing costs from 1.50% to 1.25%.</div> <div> </div> <div> </div><div> </div> <div>Chart. Daily EUR/USD </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8863</div>

"HSBC cut growth forecasts for Asian economies"(2011-10-06) Analysts at HSBC reduced its 2011 and 2012 economic forecasts for the most of the Asian economies – Hong Kong, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. The specialists revised down their 2012 growth estimates for Japan and New Zealand. As the reasons for such revision the bank cited the potential decline in exports due to lower demand in indebted Europe and economically weak United States, as well as falling stocks and currencies. The predictions for China, India, Australia and the Philippines remained unchanged. Chinese GDP is seen adding 8.9% this year and 8.6% the next. According to HSBC, Chinese strength may help to ease pressure on other Asian economies. Specialists at Standard Chartered think that in case of another financial crisis Asian central banks will be able to save the region by monetary stimulus and get out of any deep recession. At the same time, the economists say that Asia along isn’t able to remove such threat of the whole world. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8861

"Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD"(2011-10-06) The single currency rebounded from Tuesday’s minimum at $1.3145 versus the greenback to the levels above $1.3300. Technical analysts at Commerzbank note, however, that as long as EUR/USD is trading below the short-term resistance line at $1.3486, the outlook for the pair will remain negative. The specialists claim that if euro breaches support in the $1.3145/1.3063 area it will fall to 2011 minimum at $1.2860. According to the bank, the technical indicators on the daily chart remain negative. At the same time, the strategists say that there may be some consolidation after the abrupt slump seen so far. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8859

"BMO: recommendations ahead of BoE and ECB meetings"(2011-10-06) There are 2 important central bank meetings on Thursday: the one of the Bank of England (with the rate and the amount of asset purchase facility released at 3:00 pm GMT+4) and the one of the European Central Bank (with the rate and the rate released at 3:45 pm GMT+4 and press conference at 4:30 GMT+4). Analysts at BMO Capital Market note that there may be 4 possible combinations of the central banks’ decisions. Here they are: - BoE does nothing, ECB does nothing; - BoE increases quantitative easing, ECB does nothing; - BoE does nothing, ECB cuts rates; - BoE increases quantitative easing, ECB cuts rates. According to the specialists, the last scenario represents the best trading opportunity. In such case the market may firstly react to the reduction of the interest rate differentials in favor of the UK and the single currency will decline versus British pound. However, investors will likely soon realize that the ECB’s action is meant to improve the situation in the euro area. As a result, the European bank equities and euro will advance. So, BMO recommends buying EUR/GBP on the dips, at 0.8550 stopping below 0.8500 and targeting 0.8700. Chart. Daily EUR/GBP Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8857

999 Contest got started with a record number of participants!!! Dear traders! Today, on the 4th of October, your favourite 999 Contest has got started. As of today a record number of participants has started trading: 1552 traders from all over the world will do their best to be the best. The idea of the contest is pretty simple: each participant gets a demo account with 9999 USD balance in it and 1:100 leverage. You can trade 28 major currency pairs and EAs are allowed. 3 participants with the highest balances by the end of the contest period are announced the winners. It will be them who will withdrawable receive prizes from FBS (555 USD, 333 USD, 111 USD). And the contestant with the lowest deposit will get a free FBS MasterCard.FBS wishes all the participants good luck! The contest will take place during 04.10.11-04.11.11 FBS wishes all the participants good luck! Contestants ranking: http://www.fbs.com/contest/999/participants?type=cur Contest details: http://www.fbs.com/contest/999 Work with FBS , be friends with FBS and be successful! (Best mini Forex Broker of 2010) Stay connected with FBS because its all about you!