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"RBC: Aussie will strengthen versus kiwi"(2011-10-14) Analysts at Royal Bank of Canada advise investors to buy Australian dollar versus its New Zealand’s counterpart. The specialists underline that the Reserve bank of New Zealand which reduced the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 2.5% in order to help the national economy recover from the Christchurch earthquake won’t raise the borrowing costs until the second half of 2012. RBC underlines that unlike few years ago most mortgages in New Zealand are now adjustable-rate. That means that the rate hike would have an immediate effect on the households’ finances. In addition, the funding costs of commercial banks are high, so they may raise the interest rates they charge even without the central bank’s monetary tightening. As a result, the RBNZ will have to cautious in increasing rates that is a negative factor for kiwi. According to the analysts, the situation in Australia is quite opposite as the market has priced in the interest rate cuts, while RBC is sure this won’t happen. The bank recommends being long on AUD/NZD at the current levels expecting the pair to reach 1.32 by the end of the first quarter of 2012. Chart. Daily NZD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8945

"Aussie dipped on negative news from Spain"(2011-10-14) Australian dollar dipped versus the greenback earlier today as the market’s positive risk sentiment was shaken after Standard and Poor's cut Spain’s credit rating from AA to AA- with a negative outlook. Analysts at CMC Markets note that the downgrade made some higher-yielding currencies like Aussie hurt. The specialists underline that the initial investors’ reaction was kneejerk as traders weren’t sure how much of this downgrade had been already priced in AUD. Since that AUD/USD stayed in range between $1.0145 and $1.0220. At the same time, it looks like Aussie is eager to continue its uptrend. It’s necessary to note, that all in all Australia’s currency is heading for the weekly gain against its US counterpart ahead of EU summit on October 23 and G20 meeting on November 3-4. The market seems optimistic hoping that the European authorities will finally come up with the clear strategy of resolving the debt crisis. In addition, strategists Westpac remind that Aussie gets significant support from higher rates in Australia than other developed nations as well as from the favorable Australian economic data. Chart. H1 AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8943

"S&P cut Spain’s credit rating"(2011-10-14) Agency Standard and Poor’s lowered Spain’s credit rating from AA to AA- with a negative outlook. This is S&P’s third downgrade of the nation since 2009 when the country lost its AAA status. As the reason for the move the specialists cited the elevated risks to Spain’s economic growth prospects, difficult situation on Spanish labor market and the likelihood of further asset deterioration for Spain's banks. Analysts at Westpac believe the single currency will find itself under negative pressure versus the greenback and fall below $1.3150 in a month. Strategists at BNP Paribas are also bearish. In their view, the pair EUR/USD will return down to $1.35 in the short-term. It’s also necessary to note that another agency Fitch Ratings cut credit ratings of several major European banks – UBS, Lloyd's Banking and Royal Bank of Scotland – and placed Barclays Bank, BNP Paribas, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale on negative watch. Euro has so far been supported ahead of EU summit on October 23 and G20 meeting on November 3-4. Today finance ministers and central bankers from the world's 20 biggest economies meet in Paris to discuss the possible solutions of the debt crisis. Bloomberg reports that, according to the unnamed G20 and IMF officials, the nations will consider the options of increasing the International Monetary Fund’s lending resources. The pair EUR/USD declined from the 3-week maximum reached on October 12 to the levels in the $1.3750 area. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8941

"Inflation will make ECB harder to cut rates"(2011-10-13) German annual inflation rose from 2.5% in August to 2.9% in September exceeding the estimate of 2.8%. As a result, it would be hard for the European Central Bank to reduce its benchmark interest rate from the current 1.5% level to support the euro area’s economic growth hurt by the debt crisis. Last month the ECB revised down the region’s economic growth forecast from 1.9% to 1.6% to 2011 and from 1.7% to 1.3% in 2012. The central bank sees the average inflation at 2.6% this year and 1.7% the next. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8939

"Society Generale: buy Aussie versus Swiss franc"(2011-10-13) September was a hard month for risky assets. Never the less, analysts at Society Generale expect the market’s risk sentiment to improve. As a result, the specialists advise investors to return to the higher-yielding currencies. According to the bank, the good strategy is to buy AUD/CHF in the 0.9050 area stopping below 0.8850 and taking profit at 0.9600. Among the positive factors for Aussie the strategists cites Australia’s favorable economic data and the potential new policy initiatives in the euro area. Chart. Daily AUD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8937

"BarCap, RBC: China’s exports growth slows down"(2011-10-13) Chinese exports increased last month at the slowest pace in 7 months adding only 17.1% in September from a year earlier, down from 24.5% rise in August, and below economists' median forecast of a 20.3% expansion. Exports slowed more than imports and the nation’s trade surplus declined from 17.8 billion yuan in August to 14.5 billion in September. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets think that the pace of China’s exports growth will keep declining in the coming months due to the weaker external demand. The specialists note, however, that the slump seen at the end of 2008 won’t repeat. Strategists at Barclays Capital keep the forecast for China’s exports growth in 2011 at 20%. The trade surplus, in their view, will be equal to $162 billion or 2.2% of GDP in 2011. In 2010 Chinese trade surplus accounted for 3.1% of GDP. Economists at ANZ believe that China's export and import growth may slow even more in the fourth quarter due to a high base last year, but the value of exports and imports remain at a relatively high level. The state of Chinese trade balance has a strong impact on investors’ risk sentiment and, consequently, on the higher-yielding commodity currencies. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8935

"Wells Fargo: comments on AUD/USD"(2011-10-13) Australia’s dollar finds itself under the impact of both positive and negative factors. On the one hand, the payrolls in Australia increased in September by 20,400 exceeding the median forecast by more than in 2 times. On the other hand, Chinese exports increased last month at the slowest pace in 7 months, while the trade surplus of Australia’s main trading partner declined from 17.8 billion yuan in August to 14.5 billion in September. Analysts at Wells Fargo see moderate strength for Aussie. In their view, the currency will be appreciating taking onto account accommodative policy of the Federal Reserve, but will underperform other commodity currencies as the rate hikes of the Reserve bank of Australia are unlikely, while rate cuts are possible. The pair AUD/USD rose from 1-year minimum in the 0.9390 area hit on October 4 to the levels above the parity. Resistance levels for Aussie are found at $1.0377 (200-day MA), $1.0398 (September 16 maximum), $1.0664 and $1.0767 (September maximums). Support levels are situated at $0.9866 and $0.9388 (October minimums). Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8933

"Commerzbank: technical comments on EUR/USD"(2011-10-13) Technical analysts at Commerzbank expect the single currency to stay today below resistance in the $1.3838/48 area (July minimum/50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the August maximum) trading versus US dollar. If EUR/USD managed to overcome the mentioned levels, it would be able to rise to $1.3936 (September 15 maximum) and $1.4013 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) before another move down. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8931

"Minutes of FOMC September meeting"(2011-10-13) Last month, the Federal Reserve decided to perform Operation Twist or, in other words, replace $400 billion of Treasuries in the central bank’s portfolio with longer-term debt to reduce borrowing costs. According to the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee’s last meeting that took place on September 20-21, the majority of FOMC members are in favor of unveiling more information about the Fed’s goals and how they influence the central bank’s decisions. In addition, many policymakers think that it’s necessary to establish specific levels of inflation and unemployment as conditions for keeping interest rates near zero. Some FOMC officials including Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke believe that asset purchases would be a more efficient tool than the Operation Twist and that QE should be retained as an option, while others warned that further expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet would more likely raise inflation and inflation expectations than stimulate economic activity. The Fed has also Fed bought $2.3 trillion in housing and government debt in two rounds of QE from December 2008 to June 2011. However, US economy still remains weak. The FOMC was also discussing the possibility of communicating its decisions through other way than the post-meeting statements. Analysts at Daiwa Capital Markets America believe that most FOMC members would like to save QE as the last measure in case the economy starts contracting and there is the risk of deflation. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8929

"BoA Merrill Lynch: forecast for euro"(2011-10-13) The single currency has made a significant advance versus the greenback during the last several days. The pair EUR/USD climbed from the 8-month minimum at $1.3145 hit on October 4 to the levels in the $1.3800 area. Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch explain euro’s gains by squaring of excessive short positions. In their view, the up move is a correction and the European currency won’t be able to grow on the sustainable basis. The specialists claim that EUR/USD may rise to $1.4000 in the next 1-2 weeks and then the bears will once again take the situation in their hands. So, investors are to look for the chance to resume selling the pair. The bank also points out that the dynamics of euro is strongly correlated with the oil prices: when the latter increases, oil exporters tend to convert their dollar earnings in euro to keep their assets balanced. As a result, it’s necessary to take into account that as long as China’s economy stays in a good shape and the demand for commodities is high, the single currency will be supported against its US counterpart. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8927

"Wells Fargo: comments on EUR/USD"(2011-10-13) Technical analysts at Wells Fargo are neutral/positive on the single currency in the short-term. In their view, among the positive factors there are significant short positions on euro and favorable readings of the technical indicators, such as the momentum ones. In the longer perspective, however, EUR/USD remains within downtrend due to the euro zone’s economic growth slowdown and potential ECB’s easing. According to the bank, resistance for the pair is situated at $1.3936 (September 15 maximum), $1.4061 (200-day MA) and $1.4247. Support levels are found at $1.3566, $1.3145 (October minimum) and $1.2874 (January minimum). Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8925

"Bank of Montreal: USD/CAD may fall to parity"(2011-10-12) Canadian dollar strengthened versus the greenback making the biggest advance in 2 months as the markets seem to be optimistic on the plan of the European authorities to recapitalize banks. The pair USD/CAD declined from 1-year maximum at 1.0657 set on October 4 to the levels below 1.0200. Analysts at Bank of Montreal claim that loonie may reach parity versus its US counterpart. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8923

"Greece: budget deficit in figures"(2011-10-12) During the period from January to September Greece’s central government budget deficit (without local authorities and social security spending) increased by 15% in comparison with the first 9 months of last year rising from 16.65 to 19.16 billion euro. Greece’s debt load is expected to reach 173% of GDP in 2012 as its economy will shrink for the fifths year in a row. Greece’s Cabinet approved a 2012 draft budget on Sunday which sees the next a deficit of 6.8% of GDP (versus the previous estimate of 6.5% of GDO) and 8.5% shortfall this year (versus earlier projection of 7.6% of GDP). There are significant chances that the second bailout for Greece agreed on July 21 will be renegotiated. Greece is missing its budget deficit targets and the bigger the budget gap requires more financing, so the amount of loan (109 billion euro) has to be increased. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8922

"BNY Mellon: euro's prospects have improved"(2011-10-12) The single currency rose to the 3-week maximums versus its US counterpart in the $1.3820 area. The markets are waiting for the European Commission President Jose Barroso to make proposals about the recapitalization of the regional banks, on Greece and the participation of private sector in the bailout and the EFSF. Barroso is expected to announce its plan speaking to the European Parliament at 3 p.m., as Bloomberg cites the information from the unnamed official. There was also some positive data released in the euro area: industrial production unexpectedly rose in August adding 1.2% from July level and showing the biggest increase since November 2010. In addition, the inspectors of Troika indicated yesterday that Greece will get an 8 billion-euro ($11 billion) loan at the beginning of November. More details here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8908. Analysts at Bank of New York Mellon note that the level of uncertainty has subsided. Even despite the internal political tensions – Slovakia failed to ratify the EFSF extension (see http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8911) – the prospects of euro area have improved in comparison with what was seen a week ago. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8919

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"Deutsche Bank about yen as a refuge"(2011-10-12) Currency strategists at Deutsche Bank note that Japanese currency has depreciated during the last few weeks. The pair USD/JPY kept trading sideways, but it seems that investors are no longer tempted to leave everything for yen assets: there have been foreign equity outflows, and foreign bond buying by the Japanese which weren’t of much help to yen so far. The more important thing is that the declining current account surplus and low interest rates bring the situation in Japan closer to what’s seen in other developed nations. The bank points out that the number of short positions on yen has increased. In their view, that presents an opportunity to resume buying yen and selling US dollar. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8917

"Senate rejected Obama’s job plan"(2011-10-12) More news from the policymakers: US Senate blocked Barack Obama’s $447-billion plan aimed to promote jobs creation. 2 Democrats joined the Republican minority criticizing stimulus measures for being costly and inefficient and voted against the bill. The legislation includes the reduction of the payroll taxes for workers and employers and provides new funding for roads, bridges and other infrastructure. Parts of the plan may still be pushed through if Obama finds enough support for specific provisions. US political parties can’t agree on the measures that could have to decrease the unemployment that stays at 9.1%. Republicans are in favor of permanent tax cuts and deregulation, while the President and congressional Democrats propose more federal spending and short-term tax reductions. The inability of American lawmakers to reach agreement on the key economic and financial issues increased the uncertainty on the global financial markets making investors worry about the recovery prospects of the world’s biggest economy. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8915

"Societe General: comments on EUR/USD"(2011-10-12) Technical analysts at Societe General claim that despite the negative event background the single currency keeps gaining versus the greenback. In their view, the pair EUR/USD may rise to $1.3795 and even to $1.3850. The outlook for euro is positive as long as it’s trading above support at $1.3435. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8913

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"Slovakia didn’t ratify the EFSF"(2011-10-12) Slovakia didn’t ratify the EFSF bill yesterday. The ruling coalition didn’t manage to gather enough votes from the Slovak parliament in favor of the measure: there were only 55 votes in favor, while the necessary majority is 76. The other 16 member nations have already approved the bill, while the EFSF expansion has to be ratified unanimously. Prime Minister Iveta Radicova was trying to persuade the lawmakers that the whole euro area is now in danger, so it’s necessary to unify efforts. As Radikova associated the EFSF vote with the vote of confidence to the government, the coalition collapsed. Still the Prime Minister who is leaving her post proposed a compromise that may allow the parties to reach agreement at the second vote that will take place in a few days. Richard Sulik, leader of the dissident Freedom and Solidarity party, said that it would be better to allow Greece default rather than waste enormous amounts of money for loans that may never pay back. Sulik said that Slovakia’s participation in the bailout deal isn’t in proportion with its small economy and showed his intention to fight for changing that. Never the less, some experts say that as the debt crisis is continuously deepening the plan might not offer enough support for indebted nations, especially taking into account the fact that the fate of such big economies as Spain and Italy may soon come at stake. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8911

"Troika authorized sixth bailout tranche for Greece"(2011-10-11) The so-called Troika – the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank – sanctioned providing Greece with the sixth tranche of the bailout package at the beginning of November. Now it depends on the approval of the Eurogroup and the IMF. According to Troika’s statement, the indebted nation keeps making progress in such areas as fiscal consolidation, privatization, the banking system and structural reforms. Never the less, Greek economic outlook is considered to be pessimistic: the recession will be deeper than it was seen in June and Greek economy will start recovering only in 2013. Greece won’t be able to meet its deficit target this year, partly because its GDP keeps contracting. Inspectors claim that the nation will probably have to conduct additional measures. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8908

"Mizuho: pound’s under pressure due to the weak data"(2011-10-11) UK economic data surprised to the downside: manufacturing contracted in August for the third month in a row declining by 0.3% versus the expected contraction of 0.1% confirming that Britain’s economic recovery’s under threat. In the second quarter the nation’s GDP expended only by 0.1% (q/q). Last week the Bank of England raised the ceiling for bond purchases from 200 to 275 billion pounds billion pounds. According to the British Chambers of Commerce, additional monetary easing may not be enough to prevent recession, so there’s the need for more radical measures. The pair GBP/USD dropped from 1-week minimum at $1.5688 to the levels in the $1.5630 area. If pound closes below 1.5500, it will slide to the key support at $1.5330. Analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank believe that by the end of 2011 sterling will fall below $1.50 versus the greenback and lower than 0.85 per euro. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8905

<p> </p> <div></div> <div> </div> <div> "Trichet warns of systemic crisis"(2011-10-11)</div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet claimed that the euro zone financial crisis has become systemic and called for decisive political action. </div> <div> </div> <div>«The high interconnectedness in the EU financial system has led to a rapidly rising risk of significant contagion. It threatens financial stability in the EU as a whole and adversely impacts the real economy in Europe and beyond,» claimed Trichet cited by Reuters.</div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8903</div>

"Analysts about EUR/USD future"(2011-10-11) Many leading currency experts believe that the Federal Reserve will launch the third round of quantitative easing in order to encourage the national economy and that the greenback will stop strengthening. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase reduced their average forecasts for the greenback in the fourth quarter from $1.3387 to $1.34 per euro and from 77.06 to 76.6 yen. In their view, the Fed may begin discussing QE3 by the end of 2011 and begin asset purchases at the beginning of the next year. The specialists expect EUR/USD to end the year at $1.38 and the USD/JPY – at 75 yen. Strategists at Westpac think that the bears won’t be able to push EUR/USD below $1.30. In their view, the pair will trade at $1.31 at the year-end. All in all forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg project euro to appreciate to $1.40 by the end of 2012. Never the less, there still are those who prefer US currency. Economists at Credit Agricole think that the risk of recession is exaggerated. In their view, in the medium term the greenback would benefit from the fact that US economy is in the better condition than the other major economies. According to the bank, EUR/USD will end the year at $1.33 and then drop to $1.26 by the end of 2012. Analysts at Wells Fargo say dollar will end the year at $1.32 per euro pointing out that they are more optimistic on dollar’s future than on euro’s prospects. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8901

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