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"BBH is concerned about US debt issues"(2011-11-10) So far the market’s attention has been focused on the euro zone’s debt problems, investors have almost forgotten that the US also has much to deal with. The United States created special congressional committee – or supercommittee – in order to the debt-reduction measures. The deadline is on November 23. If the policymakers don’t come up with the plan how to decrease debt by $1.2 trillion before the time runs out, America’s spending will be automatically cut in 2013. Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman underline that there is a serious split in the opinions of the committee’s members. In their view, this is one of the factors why the single currency has been performing relatively well versus the greenback so far. By their estimates, traders are pricing in only a 7% probability that the supercommittee will reach a deal by the end of the month. BBH specialists underline that in case of supercommittee’s failure fiscal tightening and sluggish economic growth could make Federal Reserve’s policy more accommodative. That, in its turn, will put the greenback under negative pressure. US dollar, euro and sterling will be competing in weakness, so US currency want lose much to the latter. Taking into account the euro area’s issues the bank still thinks that EUR/USD will fall to $1.29 by the end of the year. At the same time, other G10 currencies are quite likely to outperform dollar. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9091

"SocGen: sell Aussie versus yen"(2011-11-10) Currency strategists at Societe Generale advise traders to stay out of EUR/USD as there is severe event risk and the pair’s dynamics is extremely volatile. The specialists propose investors to trade on the consequences of the euro area’s debt crisis or, in other words, on the economic growth slowdown and worsening risk sentiment. So, according to the bank, a good trading strategy is selling Australian dollar versus Japanese yen. The analysts advise to open shorts on AUD/JPY in the 79.50 area stopping above 81.50 aiming at 74.00 yen. Chart. Daily AUD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9089

"Mizuho: US dollar may strengthen versus yen"(2011-11-10) yesterday versus the greenback testing levels below $1.3565, the level representing 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its advance in October. The specialists think that if EUR/USD remains trading below $1.3565, it will be poised down to $1.3380/60 (78.6% retracement and September minimum). After that, the next downside target will be $1.3145 (October 4 minimum). According to the bank, resistance levels are situated at $1.3685/90 and $1.3870. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9087

"Mizuho: US dollar may strengthen versus yen"(2011-11-10) echnical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank believe that the greenback may rise to the 4-month maximum versus Japanese yen. The specialists point out that USD/JPY has managed to break above the top of the Ichimoku Cloud. In their view, after Japan’s intervention on October 31 dollar’s baseline has lifted up to 77.44 yen. If the greenback keeps closing above this level until the end of November, bullish pressure on US currency will increase. According to the bank, the pair may rise above August 4 maximum at 80.23 yen. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9085

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"RBC: sell Swiss franc versus Japanese yen"(2011-11-09) Analysts at RBC Capital Markets believe that the single currency will stay in a tight range for some time. Instead, the specialists advise traders to turn to yen and franc as the Swiss National Bank’s and the Bank of Japan’s intervention approaches are different. The SNB is concerned about deflation risk, so it set specific target for franc in order to reverse its advance versus euro and is successfully defending it. The BOJ has also attempted to stop the appreciation of the national currency, but failed to keep yen from strengthening. So, the latter, according to the bank, lacks determination and the use of specific targets of the former. As a result, RBC recommends opening shorts on CHF/JPY in the 87.25 area stopping above 89.30 and targeting 83.00 yen. Chart. Daily CHF/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9076

"Commerzbank: comments on USD/JPY"(2011-11-09) Japanese yen keeps gradually strengthening versus the greenback as the concerns about another potential intervention fade. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that USD/JPY is poised down to the level of 50% Fibonacci retracement of the advance made after October 31 intervention at 77.40 yen. The specialists claim that the outlook for the pair will remain bearish as long as it keeps trading below the 4-year downtrend line at 79.64 yen and 55-week MA at 80.52 yen. If US currency manages to overcome these levels, it will be able to rise to 2011 maximum at 85.53 yen. According to the bank, support is found at 77.50/40. If dollar breached these levels, it will drop to 76.93 and 76.22/75.94. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9074

"Italy: Berlusconi agreed to step down"(2011-11-09) Yesterday Italian controversial Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi didn’t manage to obtain the absolute majority on the routine budget bill as he was supported only by 308 lawmakers out of 630. As a result, Berlusconi, who seems to have lost political confidence, pledged to leave his post as soon as the nation’s parliament approves austerity measures promised to the EU. The whole matter should be over in the next few weeks. The market’s reaction, as expected, was optimistic: investors hope that new authorities will be able to find way out of the crisis. Never the less, analysts at RBS warn traders that the relief won’t last long. Italy now faces technocratic government – the government with limited term meant to carry out specific reforms. It’s likely to be chosen by political leaders and appointed by President Giorgio Napolitano and charged with implementing debt-reduction agenda until April 2013 when the elections are to be held. Conducting new elections on the spot as suggests Berlusconi would delay reforms. Most of the opposition parties have signaled they would support a broader coalition or a technical government. However, one should realize that the country’s 1.9 trillion euro-debt is very difficult to control, so there are no guarantees that new authorities will do much better than Berlusconi. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9072

"BNY Mellon: forecasts for the major pairs"(2011-11-08) BNY Mellon: forecasts for the major pairs Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9068

"Deutsche Bank on trading difficulties"(2011-11-08) Analysts at Deutsche Bank note that forex trading on the macroeconomic trends is getting more and more difficult. The specialists point out that Swiss franc – the strongest currency this year – added 6.5% versus the greenback in 2011, while Canadian dollar – the weakest 2011 currency – declined against its US counterpart by 1%. The deviation between franc and loonie is less than 8% and judging by the 30-year average is very small. According to the bank, that means that it has become very difficult to find profitable trades. The economists think that in 2011 the situation won’t improve due to the extremely low short-term interest rates of the developed nations’ central banks. According to Deutsche Bank, the next year many traders will start seeking profits outside of G10 currencies. As for the major currencies the bank favors selling euro versus yen and US dollar. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9064

"Saxo Bank: forecast for EUR/USD"(2011-11-08) Analysts at Saxo Bank believe that the decline of the single currency from the October maximums in the $1.4200 area will continue during the rest of this year and in 2012 when the greenback is expected to gain 25%. The specialists claim that EUR/USD will slide to $1.20/1.30 and then to $1.10/1.15. In their view, euro will be affected by lower ECB rates. Chart. Weekly EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9066

"Standard Chartered, BarCap: comments on EUR/CHF"(2011-11-08) Swiss central bank Vice President Thomas Jordan claimed that Switzerland’s monetary authorities are closely monitoring franc’s rate and are ready to act if it’s necessary. SNB President Philipp Hildebrand is speaking today at 17: 30 (GMT+4). In his last interview on November 6 Hildebrand warned that if franc remains strong the nation will face the risk of deflation or economic contraction. Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank underline that Swiss monetary authorities do a lot of verbal interference in the currency market. So far this strategy has proved to be effective enough as the SNB manages to keep the pair EUR/CHF above the floor of 1.20 set on August 9 even though the worsening situation in the euro area urges investors to run to franc as a safe haven. Strategists at Barclays Capital expect demand for Swiss currency to increase this week. In their view, the pair EUR/CHF is on its way down to $1.2245. Specialists at ING don’t think that the SNB will raise floor for the pair as such actions may ruin the credibility of the threshold. On the upside the analysts see euro’s advance limited by $1.2500. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9062

"BBH: euro will fall to $1.3145"(2011-11-08) Technical analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman claim that the single currency has breached the support of its middle-term upside channel within which it was trading since September 2010. So, at the end of the last month this line started to play the role of resistance in the $1.4200 area. According to BBH, the pair EUR/USD is poised down to $1.3145 (October 4 minimum). Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9060

"Westpac: market is focused on Italy"(2011-11-08) Today the market’s attention is focused on the budget vote in Italy. The nation’s Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is under pressure to step down, so the vote will show whether the premier still has a majority in the 630-seat Chamber of Deputies. Next week Berlusconi plans to hold the confidence vote a on implementation of measures pledged to the European Union that are designed to promote Italian economic growth and reduce its huge debt. Analysts at Westpac Banking claim that it seems that the market will be satisfied only if Berlusconi resigns and technocratic government is formed. The specialists say that when it happens, risk sentiment increases and the euro increases. In their view, one should use the advance of EUR/USD to sell the single currency as the relief for euro won’t last long. Analysts at Societe Generale are worried about high Italian borrowing costs as the 6.5% yields would be soon unbearable for the country with only 1.8% nominal GDP growth and the debt accounting for 120% of GDP. Another thing to watch will be the nation’s auction of fixed-rate bonds on November 14 that may cause euro’s sell-off if the borrowing costs increase once again. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9058

"BMO: sell pound versus franc"(2011-11-08) Currency strategists at BMO Capital Markets advise investors to pay attention to the Bank of England’s meeting on Thursday as it, in their view, represents good trading opportunity. The specialists distinguish 3 possible scenarios: - BoE doesn’t act at all; - BoE undertakes minor quantitative easing on the order of 25 billion pounds; - BoE does more significant easing. The analysts regard the third outcome as likely as British economy is in a very poor condition that together with the euro zone’s debt crisis will keep pound under pressure, while franc has upside potential as a safe haven. BMO thinks that the results of Swiss National Bank’s any intervention won’t last long. As a result, the bank recommends selling sterling versus Swiss franc. Chart. Daily GBP/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9056

"Commerzbank: comments on USD/CHF"(2011-11-08) Technical analysts at Commerzbank expect the greenback to rise to 0.9082 versus Swiss franc. Then, if US currency manages to overcome this level, it will be poised up to 0.9317 (October maximum) and 0.9341/99 (April maximum and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2010/2011 decline). Here the specialists look forward to some profit taking on USD/CHF. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9054

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"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY"(2011-11-07) Weekly USD/JPY The third intervention conducted this year in Japan lifted the pair USD/JPY from the record minimum at 75.56 yen hit on October 31 to the levels above the Turning line, slightly higher than 78 yen. At the same time, Japan’s move didn’t much change the outlook at the weekly Ichimoku chart: the Turning line (1) and the Standard line (2) still hold the strong “dead cross” in place (5), the descending Cloud maintains its width together with Kijun-sen acting as resistance for the prices. The Channel between Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen has narrowed. This week the greenback is likely to remain within it. Despite the efforts of Japanese monetary authorities to curb the national currency investors’ demand for yen as a refuge is still high. Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Daily USD/JPY After the intervention US dollar has been holding in the 78 yen area supported by Senkou Span B (2). The market is in the state of uncertainty: the lines Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen have merged in one moving horizontally (1). The same happened with the borders of the Cloud which has turned into a straight line (3). Neither bulls, nor bears have courage to act. The pair is likely to consolidate at the current levels. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9035

"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2011-11-07) British currency still remains within Ichimoku Cloud: a week earlier the bulls had brought prices to the upper border of Kumo – Senkou Span A (4) – from which sterling has recoiled and reversed down. It’s necessary to note that as the Turning line is directed down it’s possible to expect pound’s decline to continue (2). In addition, the bears seem to gain strength: bearish Cloud is widening. The lines Kijun-sen (1) and Tenkan-sen (2) as well as Senkou Span B will act as support for pound. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD On the daily chart the bulls have managed to make good advance in the second half of October as they have found the narrow place in the Ichimoku Cloud and pushed the pair’s rate above it. At the moment pound is fluctuation around support provided by the Turning line (1). The next support for the British currency will be Senkou Span B (3). At the same time, sterling’s appreciation may be only a correction: in the $1.6335 area the pair met resistance line connecting September and October maximums. Although the Ichimoku Cloud has switched to the rising mode (4), it is still too tiny to speak about bulls’ strength. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9034

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"UBS: technical levels for the major pairs"(2011-11-04) Currency strategists at Royal Bank of Scotland see the trading opportunity on the current European mess. The specialists note that the euro zone’s economic outlook is very dim, while the prospects of Canadian economy seem to be much more favorable. According to RBS, it would be beneficial to sell the single currency versus Canadian dollar in the longer term. The analysts underline that trading EUR/CAD is a better idea then EUR/USD as the latter is strongly correlated with the S&P500 index that tends to jump on positive news from Europe, so this type of trade doesn’t suit here. As a result, the bank’s recommendation is to open shorts on EUR/CAD in the $1.3925 area stopping above $1.4380 and targeting the levels just below $1.2800. Chart. Daily EUR/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9028

"Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD"(2011-11-04) British pound consolidated versus the greenback at the levels around $1.6000. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that as long as GBP/USD stays below the 200-day MA at $1.6140, the outlook for the pair will be negative. The bearish pressure would ease only if British currency overcomes 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1.6185. In such case pound will be poised up to 78.6% retracement of the decline from May at $1.6430. The specialists, however, think that sterling is more likely to break support at $1.5875 (55-day MA). Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9026