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"France will offer bills amid the downgrade"(2012-01-16) Monday, January 16, 2012 - 09:00 The weekend was marked by the dim news for the euro area: Standard & Poor’s downgraded France and Austria by one level from top AAA rating to AA+ with “negative” outlooks. The agency also reduced credit ratings of Italy, Portugal, Spain and Cyprus by 2 steps and cut Malta, Slovakia and Slovenia by one notch. The ratings of Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands were affirmed. In this light one has to watch French debt auction the result of which will be due around 13:55 GMT. The nation plans to sell 8.7 billion euro ($11 billion) in bills. The yield on France’s 10-year bonds rose by 3 basis points to 3.055%. The yield spread between French and German 10-year bonds increased from less than 50 points a year ago to about 130 basis points. France’s finance minister Francois Baroin claimed that “it’s not a catastrophe” and “it’s still an excellent grade.” Never the less, the downgrade will likely have a dreadful impact on the image of French president Nicolas Sarkozy. According to the polls conducted last week, Sarkozy, the leader of the ruling UMP party, has the backing of 23.5% of voters versus 21.5% who support anti-euro candidate Marine Le Pen, the leader of the nationalist National Front, while Socialist Party candidate François Hollande leads with 27%. Coming auctions Tuesday, January 17: EFSF, Greece, Spain Wednesday, January 18: Portugal Thursday, January 19: Spain Debt payments in 2012 Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-16/16427-france-will-offer-bills-amid-downgrade

"Italy: mixed results of the debt auction"(2012-01-13) Italy managed to raise 4.75 billion euro meeting the target level. The nation sold 3-year notes at an average yield of 4.83% down from 5.62% at a prior auction in December. The single currency declined versus US dollar and Japanese yen as the demand wasn’t as high as the market’s expected: investors bid for 1.2 times the amount allotted, down from 1.36 last month. Italy will soon face a more serious challenge – 10-year bond auction which is set to take place in 2 weeks. In the first quarter the country will have to pay off more than 100 billion euro. Analysts at Morgan Stanley claim that any rebound of EUR/USD is going to remain limited and the medium-term outlook for the pair is limited. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-13/16424-italy-mixed-results-debt-auction

"ING, Lloyds: EUR bearish trend will stay intact"(2012-01-13) The single currency has been trading within downtrend since November, when the possibility of Greece exiting the euro zone was mentioned officially for the first time. Analysts at ING claim that no matter whether the European policymakers including the ECB reach agreement to stabilize the government debt crisis or not, the single currency will fall. In their view, the Europe’s credit crunch is a reality, and the euro zone requires softer monetary conditions, including a weaker euro. At the same time, the specialists underline that euro’s shorts are too large now, so if the currency is to fall further from here, a “different community of sellers” – corporations, institutional investors and FX reserve managers – must emerge. According to ING, US dollar, demand for which will be supported by the euro zone’s debt problems, will keep strengthening versus commodity and emerging market currencies. The recovery of American currency will go on for 3-6 months, says the bank. Strategists at Lloyds Bank claim that though excessive euro shorts may allow the European currency to experience short-term runs, euro's reaction to the improved global data will be limited as the markets realize that European economy is severely weakened by the austerity measures and it would take a long time for the region’s growth to become strong enough so that the ECB would be able to tighten its monetary policy. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-13/16420-ing-lloyds-eur-bearish-trend-will-stay-intact

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"Morgan Stanley: sell EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD"(2012-01-13) Analysts at Morgan Stanley recommend selling the single currency versus Australian and Canadian dollars. In their view, traders will be using euro as funding currency investing money in higher-yielding currencies such as Aussie and loonie. Such move of the market may be explained by high risk aversion in the euro area, low yield especially in key European economies and the risk of ECB’s easing policy, says the bank. According to Morgan Stanley, one should open shorts on EUR/CAD at 1.3150 stopping at 1.3260 and targeting 1.2740 and on EUR/AUD at1.2660 targeting 1.1925 and stopping in the 1.2860/2905 area. Chart. Daily EUR/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-13/16416-morgan-stanley-sell-eurcad-and-euraud

"ECB: rates unchanged, analysts’ comments"(2012-01-13) As it was expected, yesterday the European Central Bank left its benchmark rate unchanged at 1%. Here are the main points of the euro zone’s monetary authorities: - There are “tentative signs of stabilization” in the European economy, yields at Spanish and Italian bond auctions decline. - Still euro zone’s economic outlook in 2012 seems alarming, the region’s financial market is in the state of “high uncertainty and substantial downside risks”. - During the next few months euro area inflation will remain at 2% before declining. - European leaders have to encourage job creation without slippage in austerity measures and reforms. - The new European fiscal compact, which is currently under negotiation, must be characterized by “unambiguous and effective wording”. - The central bank’s decision to provide 489.2 billion euro in low-cost 3-year loans to the European banks has prevented a credit contraction. - The ECB was pleased that euro zone leaders had confirmed that the involvement of private creditors in the second Greek bailout was “unique and exceptional.” The ECB has persistently argued against private sector involvement warning that it would increase contagion risks. Analysts’ comments Nomura underlines that the central bank wants to assess the latest data in order to judge the magnitude and depth of the recession in the region. Societe Generale claims that further rate cuts will only be forthcoming in case of the signs of an outright credit crunch. The single currency picked up versus the greenback returning above $1.28. Never the less, UBS thinks that the overall negative outlook for euro didn’t improve after the ECB meeting. The specialists lowered forecasts for the pair EUR/USD from $1.25 to $1.15 by the end of this year and from $1.20 to $1.10 by the end of 2013. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-13/16413-ecb-rates-unchanged-analysts-comments

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"Citigroup: USD/JPY is facing resistance"(2012-01-12) Analysts at Citigroup think that US dollar will be imprisoned in range between 75 and 80 yen in 2012. The specialists claim that USD/JPY will face resistance of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud which is situated in the 78/80 yen area. In their view, the greenback will trade with a slight downside bias unless and until the Federal Reserve shifts to tighter monetary policy. Strategists at ANZ are bearish on USD/JPY in the long-term as Japan switches away from direct currency intervention tools. In addition, they say that the private sector is likely to have a continued bias to repatriate offshore assets because of the global deleveraging cycle. As yen is strengthening in most of its crosses, it would be very difficult for Japanese policymakers to encourage large outflows of private sector capital. Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-12/16409-citigroup-usdjpy-facing-resistance

"MIG Bank: negative outlook for Aussie"(2012-01-12) Technical analysts at MIG Bank are bearish on the prospects of Australian dollar versus its American counterpart. In their view, the pair AUD/USD will go down to the parity level and then drop to $0.9862 (December 15 minimum) and $0.9664/20 (November 23 minimum). According to the bank, the pair won’t be able to overcome 200-day MA which has been has been holding steady around $1.0413 during 3 months. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-12/16407-mig-bank-negative-outlook-aussie

"BoA: Canadian dollar will fall in Q1"(2012-01-12) Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch believe that by the end of the first quarter the greenback may reach peak at 1.09 versus its Canadian counterpart and then return to the lower levels. The specialists underline that loonie keeps depending on the market’s risk sentiment. Canada’s currency is highly sensitive to the market volatility stemming from Europe and the situation in the euro area, in their view, will get worse before it gets better. Moreover, the bank points out that Canada's housing market is overvalued. Although Merrill Lynch doesn’t expect a crash, this situation may кeinforce any large external shock if prices fall rapidly. In addition, China remains the object of investors’ concerns. All these factors contribute to increasing the possibility of an interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada, negative for CAD. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-12/16405-boa-canadian-dollar-will-fall-q1

"BoA: pound's slipping into downtrend"(2012-01-12) Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch believe that British pound will trade within downtrend versus the greenback all year. The specialists claim that if GBP/USD breaks below support at $1.5272 (October minimum), the pair will complete 15-month “head & shoulders” breaking through the neck line. As a result, the long-term trend will become bearish and sterling will be condemned to failure to $1.3908 and $1.3825. Analysts at Commerzbank are also bearish on pound, though not as strongly yet. In their view, the pair will fall to $1.5272 and then to $1.5135, where it should hold first time around before resuming decline. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-12/16403-boa-pound-slips-downtrend

"FBS analytical review 2011-2012" Pound: comments and forecasts According to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, British currency added 0.7% versus the developed nations’ currencies (US dollar increased by 1.1%, while euro lost 1.4%, the Index shows) in 2011. Sterling gained 2.3% against euro and ended the year almost unchanged versus the greenback. Pound will be helped by the fact that the effects from the VAT increase are disappearing and, consequently, the inflation pressure might decrease. In addition, Olympic Games 2012 will encourage tourism and consumer spending. Among sterling-negative factors one should name the consequences of the severe austerity measures, the slump of the world’s business activity and the negative effects of the European debt crisis on British economy. The pace of wage growth in Britain falls behind the pace of the price growth. As a result, disposable income of British people is declining and causes contraction of retail sales provoking general economic weakness of the United Kingdom. Last year the pair EUR/GBP was steadily declining under the influence of debt problems in Europe. The European currency fell from the year maximums in the 0.9080 area to the levels in the 0.8300 area hit so far. For now pound’s appreciation doesn’t bother UK monetary authorities. Most likely, the Bank of England will think of taking some measures to curb sterling only if the pair drops to the 3-year minimum at 0.8000. The pair GBP/USD has been trading in a more volatile way: during the past 6 months the British currency has reached the maximum at $ 1.66 and hit the minimum at $ 1.53. Pound is expected to stay above support at $ 1.52. If this level is broken, the pair may test $ 1.50. The rebound may take the pair to $ 1.6150. Depending on what course the things will take in the first quarter of 2012, both Britain and the United States may get into another round of quantitative easing. The experts think that British central bank will increase its asset purchase program in February when the current stage of the purchases is finished. Until that moment the currency moves will be determined by the market forces. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Yen: comments and forecasts Japanese yen has strengthened in 2011 versus all major currencies gaining 4.2% against the US dollar and 6.7% against euro, although Japanese authorities have sold at least 14.3 trillion yens ($183 billion) trying to stem the appreciation of the national currency. It’s necessary to remember that the fiscal year in Japan ends on March 31. Usually yen tends to rise in the first months of the year. The advance of Japanese currency accelerates through March. Then in early April the trend changes in the opposite direction as Japanese companies finish seasonal repatriation of profits and the funds start flowing out of Japan. This time, given the prevailing risk aversion environment, Japanese companies may decide to leave their money at home in April. However, if risk sentiment improves, the outflow from yen will strengthen. Until that happens, yen will remain strong and continue to consolidate. So, the future of Japanese currency depends on investors’ risk sentiment and on whether the greenback will be attractive as a safe haven. The pair USD/JPY still stays within the longer-term downtrend which has been developing since the middle of 2007. During the last few months US dollar has been consolidating between 75 and 80 yen. One will be able to speak about the long-term trend reversal only if the pair consolidates above the psychologically important point of 80 yen and then overcomes 100-week MA in the 84 yen zone. Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-10/16383-fbs-analytical-review-2011-201

"FBS analytical review 2011-2012" Main events of 2011. Outlook for 2012. Comments and forecasts for the single currency, Japanese yen and British pound. Financial challenges of 2011 2011 was expected to be the year of global economic recovery after the recession of 2008-2009. The year began rather well: the Federal Reserve had launched the second round of quantitative easing, while Europe managed to take a breath amid the tensions caused by the Greek debt issues. Nevertheless, the results of 2011 seem dismal: instead of moderate economic rebound the developed economies are now facing the risk of stagnation and even contraction. The problems started with the surge of the oil prices due to the turmoil in the Northern Africa and the Middle East. Then Japan suffered from the strongest earthquake and tsunami in its history which led to the Fukushima nuclear disaster. This resulted in the disruption of the supply chains which, in its turn, made commodities more expensive. The situation in the euro area has deteriorated: Portugal was forced to ask Troika – the IMF, the EU and the ECB – for bailout. It became evident that Greece is tormented not by the crisis of liquidity, but by the crisis of solvency and confidence. The response from the euro zone’s leaders came too late and was limited. The crisis began to spread across the region. Large European economies as Spain and Italy got under the market’s pressure and had to conduct austerity measures. Summer was marked with US drama: as American debt exceeded the limit of 14 trillion dollars, Democrats and Republicans were debating on increasing the nation’s debt ceiling and managed to come to the agreement only in time of the deadline. The problem was temporarily resolved, but the whole mess has cost the country the loss of its highest credit rating. Autumn has brought both good and bad news. On the one hand, despite the deterioration of the expectations during the summer the economic situation in the US began improving. On the other hand, the debt crisis kept spreading over Europe seizing more and more nations: the bond yields rallied even in the AAA-rated countries. At the same time, the policymakers on the either side of Atlantics still don’t hurry with the decisive steps aimed to resolve the problems which keep building up. Of course, the world has managed to avoid the worst outcome – the single currency is still in place, while the US government shutdown was fortunately left out of the way. At the same time, the situation remains quite difficult. In 2012 the developed economies and the whole global economy will face serious challenges. Europe may be facing the turning point in its history: the currency union will either have to make a rapid integration progress or begin disintegrating. Now it’s much more difficult for the European states to start recovering than it was a year ago. The recovery would take substantial, but credible and accomplishable fiscal consolidation plans, stable liquidity supplies to the banking sector and much more efficient collaboration of all stakeholders. Global economy will surely increase due to the economic growth of the emerging markets such as China and Brazil, though the lower demand in the developed world will affect these nations as well, so possibility of the global economic slowdown is high. Euro: comments and forecasts The majority of the analysts are bearish on EUR/USD. The European currency keeps trading within the downtrend despite some positive news, such as the ECB’s massive 3-year credit auction. The single currency has little chance to repeat the advance it managed to make at the beginning of 2011, when it gained several thousand pips. The ECB is expected to cut rates to a new historic minimum of 0.50% or even lower and might as well embark on outright QE. The pair EUR/USD may fall to $1.2550 in the first quarter of the year and then slide to $1.2000. One might benefit from selling euro versus Australian dollar as the latter will be supported due to Australia’s trade connections with China, which aims to encourage the national markets with more loose monetary policy. The yield spread between 2-year US and German bonds is holding close to -12 – it’s a positive factor for US dollar. Last time the negative reading was posted in March 2010 and held till July 2010 – this period corresponds to the slump of the pair EUR/USD from the levels in the $1.3300 zone to the multi-year minimum of $1.1875. Chart. Weekly EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-10/16383-fbs-analytical-review-2011-201

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"Nordea: be bearish on euro"(2012-01-11) Analysts at Nordea Bank advise investors to go short on EUR /USD at $1.2779 placing stops at $1.3820. In their view, euro will be affected by the difficulties the European governments will surely face trying to raise funds and implement new budget rules. According to the bank, “the question is not if you are bearish on the single currency, but rather, are you bearish enough?” The specialists claim that one should buy back the single currency when it hits $1.20. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-11/16392-nordea-be-bearish-euro

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"Merrill Lynch: sell EUR/CAD, AUD/CAD"(2012-01-06) Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch note that oil prices have been range bound for 8 months. If they resume growth, that would be a very positive factor for Canadian dollar. The bank thinks that oil prices may gain $20. Bank of America suggests selling EUR/CAD stopping at 1.3250 and targeting 1.2775 or even 1.24. The specialists note that the pair is trading within a very strong downtrend. In addition, the analysts recommend going short on AUD/CAD as Aussie may be affected by the base metal prices. Chart. Daily EUR/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-06/16361-merrill-lynch-sell-eurcad-audcad

"BBH on trading EUR/USD"(2012-01-06) Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman are bearish on the single currency versus the greenback. The specialists think that the pair EUR/USD will drop to $1.20 by the middle of 2012. At the same time, the bank doesn’t recommend investors to sell euro at the current levels noting the large number of euro shorts: US economic outlook is gradually improving, so the demand for US dollar as the safe haven will decline. According to BBH, it’s necessary to wait for euro’s rebound to $1.2900 and then start selling EUR/USD with a stop in the $1.3050 zone and targeting $1.2600 and $1.2000. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-06/16359-bbh-trading-eurusd

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"Byron Wien: forecasts for 2012"(2012-01-05) Byron Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners, sees Europe’s future this way: Italy and Greece will default but stay in the European Union, because Europe “has much too much to lose if the European Union dissolves”. Wien says that European authorities will likely manage to come up with a long-lasting plan to solve its financial problems. The specialist is optimistic about US economic prospects expecting the S&P 500 index to get above 1400. In his view, the unemployment rate will fall below 8%, while the economic growth will top 3%. If these predictions come true, Barack Obama will likely win president elections. The economist claims that oil price will drop to $85 a barrel as the supply increases due to the extraction from shale and rock in the United States. Wien remains bullish on gold and says it will trade at $1,800 a troy ounce. Note that last year 8 out of 10 Wein’s predictions were right, reports CNBC. Wein predicted the S&P would end the year at 1500 and the yield on the 10-year Treasuries would close out 2011 at 5%. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-05/16353-byron-wien-forecasts-2012

"Citigroup: emerging markets will rebound in 2012"(2012-01-05) 2011 was an unhappy year for the emerging markets: MSCI emerging markets index slumped by 20%. Analysts at Citigroup, however, believe that in 2012 the situation will be different and expect 25-30% rebound in emerging markets’ equity. In their view, negative factors which affected these markets – much sharper interest rate cycle and inflation cycle – will ease. The specialists forecast soft landing in China: inflation will decline to the average level of 4.1%, so that Chinese monetary authorities will be able to conduct more loose monetary policy. The bank thinks that China will make as eight 50-basis point cuts in the reserve requirement ratio this year, with the first coming before Chinese New Year. According to Citigroup, the country’s growth rate will decrease to 7.5-8% in the first quarter before rebounding by the end of the year. The outlook for the emerging markets will be influenced by the global economic environment, particularly Europe. Citi isn’t expecting a worst-case scenario in the euro area. The bank thinks that the emerging market currencies will stabilize against the greenback. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-05/16351-citigroup-emerging-markets-will-rebound-2012

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"UBS, Commerzbank: bullish on EUR/CHF"(2012-01-04) Analysts at UBS advise investors to buy the single currency versus Swiss franc expecting the pair EUR/CHF to rise to 1.25. According to the bank, “the franc is now largely flat on a structural basis” and “the SNB should take note of this before they manage their next step”. As a result, the specialists think that the odds that the Swiss national Bank increases floor for EUR/CHF are now higher. Analysts at Commerzbank also think that the speculation about EUR/CHF floor-raising will help to strengthen euro ahead of the important inflation data release in February. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-04/16347-ubs-commerzbank-bullish-eurchf

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