internationallove

"Japan posted trade deficit in 2011"(2012-01-25) US dollar strengthened versus Japanese yen as according to the data released today, Japan posted bigger than expected trade deficit in December: the trade shortfall accounted for 0.57 trillion versus the forecast of 0.36 trillion. As this was the third monthly deficit in a row, Japan got annual shortfall for the first time since 1980 equal to of 2.49 trillion yen ($32 billion). Such figures may be explained by the surge of Japan’s energy import after the March 11 earthquake and by a shift of manufacturing overseas, for example, to lower-cost Thailand. As a result, Japan may lose the status as the world’s largest creditor which makes it a safe haven for investment. Though yen will weaken in this case letting the nation’s exporters breathe, it would become much more difficult for Japanese authorities to manage the largest debt in the world. As Japan’s population shrinks, the county, which has been for a long time considered a refuge, may be forced to depend on foreign investors to buy its bonds with the yields rising on the fiscal concerns. Economists at JPMorgan Securities expect the deficit to increase in the coming years. Specialists at Merrill Lynch think that even if the economy picks up, the balance will never return to the days of a 6 or 7 trillion yen surplus. According to the bank, imports of liquid gas from the emerging countries will keep growing and the balance will hover near 0 in the next couple years. However, analysts at Goldman Sachs think that that the situation of deficit is only temporary and that Japan's trade balance will likely return to monthly surpluses in the second half of 2012. In their view, the impact of last year’s disaster will likely fade out gradually, while the global economic cycle is expected to slowly recover. The specialists also claim that strong yen doesn’t have extraordinary impact on the nation’s exports as the latter are not declining more than global economic momentum even with the yen's continued rise. Japan's decline in overall competitiveness will be gradual due to its high-tech firms. The pair USD/JPY went up from the levels in the 77 yen area where it began yesterday’s trade testing the levels in the 78 yen zone. Analysts at MIG Bank think that the greenback may rise to 78.40, 79.55, 82.00 and then 83.30 yen. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-25/16479-japan-posted-trade-deficit-2011

"Fed will release federal funds rate forecast"(2012-01-25) Tomorrow the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for the first time ever release its interest rate forecast extending to 2016 including individual rate expectations of the committee members'. The FOMC is trying to make its policy more transparent. In longer term, this new mechanism will provide the Fed with a potentially important tool to influence expectations, and therefore the course of the economy. Economists at Danske Bank think that the Fed might forecast its first hike at the end of 2013. Analysts at Nomura called the coming meeting “historic”. In their view, the market will get “an historic amount of new information to digest”. Although the recent economic data was positive and aroused investors’ optimism, US still faces serious challenges, such as high unemployment and the difficult situation at the housing market. The rate and the Fed’s statement will be published on Wednesday, January 25, at 7:15 p.m. GMT. The Fed’s chairman Ben Bernanke will hold press conference. The Fed funds rate is expected to stay between zero and 0.25% where it has been since December 2008. The majority of the experts don’t think that American central bank will launch another round of bond purchases, QE3. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-24/16477-fed-will-release-federal-funds-rate-forecast

999 Contest got started!!! Dear traders! Today “999” Contest has started! The contest will take place during 24.01.12-24.02.12 The contest takes place during one month that is why all the participants have an opportunity to show their best. 1722 traders from Indonesia, Malaysia, China, Russia, Ukraine, India and other countries are taking part in 999. Each of them wants to be the first. Contestants from six continents of earth are struggling for the leadership in the contest and its rewards – 555 USD, 333 USD, 111 USD for the first, the second and the third place, respectively, and for the encouraging prize - FBS MasterCard. FBS wishes all the participants good luck! Contestants ranking: http://www.fbs.com/999-demo-contest/participants?type=cur Contest details: http://www.fbs.com/999-demo-contest Discuss on forum: http://forumfortrader.com/showthread.php?t=11274 FBS wishes you Finance,Freedom and Success in trading! (Best mini Forex Broker of 2010 - 2011) Stay connected with FBS because its all about you!

"BarCap: GBP/USD will reverse down"(2012-01-24) Analysts at Barclays Capital note that the upward correction of British pound versus the greenback will likely be over within the next 24-48 hours. In their view, the end of the bullish squeeze will confirm if GBP/USD goes down below $1.5515. The specialists recommend selling sterling on any further advance stopping above $1.57. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-24/16472-barcap-gbpusd-will-reverse-down

"Euro has become a funding currency"(2012-01-24) Analysts at UBS claim that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates twice more by 25 bps each in March and April. As a result, the bank maintains bearish longer-term forecast on EUR/USD. Economists at Citigroup think that the ECB will reduce the borrowing costs in the second quarter, while strategists at Bank of Nova Scotia say that the central bank will cut rates to 0.5% by the end of the first quarter. Analysts at Morgan Stanley see a very clear breakdown in the correlation between the euro and risky assets. Euro is increasingly becoming a funding currency – one may significantly benefit from borrowing in euro and investing in Australia’s dollar, Brazil’s real, Mexico’s peso, South Africa’s rand and South Korea’s won. Specialists at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group claim that other currencies which have effectively low or 0 rates, such as the dollar and yen, are facing a slightly better growth profile. According to the World Bank, euro zone’s economy will contract by 0.3% in 2012, while the global economy will add 2.5%. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-24/16469-euro-has-become-funding-currency

"Morgan Stanley: recommendations for USD/CHF"(2012-01-24) Strategists at Morgan Stanley recommend buying the greenback versus Swiss franc in the 0.9280 area stopping at 0.9180 and targeting 0.9770. The specialists note that even after Philipp Hildebrand’s resignation the Swiss National bank will maintain the floor for EUR/CHF. In addition, Swiss franc will be used as a funding currency due to Switzerland’s unfavorable growth outlook and SNB’s policy. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-24/16467-morgan-stanley-recommendations-usdchf

"Commerzbank: negative longer-term outlook for euro"(2012-01-24) Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that as the single currency managed to consolidate in the $1.3000 area, it may rise to $1.3077/3145 versus the greenback this week. In that area, however, EUR/USD will face strong resistance which will cap the pair’s rate. The specialists note that euro is vulnerable to any unexpected shift in the talks between the IIF and Greece indicating a stall in the negotiations or disappointing data from the euro zone. In their view, the longer-term outlook for EUR/USD is bearish: the pair will decline to the downtrend line in the $1.2083 region. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-24/16465-commerzbank-negative-longer-term-outlook-euro

Get FBS MasterCard for FREE!!! FBS announces the start of new unprecedented promotion: “Get FBS MasterCard® for free”! Appreciate deposit and withdrawal options at FBS at its value with the free Prepaid FBS Payoneer MasterCard! How can I get the card? Open trading account at FBS and then apply for getting the card in your Personal Area! The cost of the card is $ 20. If you deposit $ 500 or more you get the card for free! With Prepaid FBS Payoneer MasterCard you can: withdraw money from several accounts if they are registered on your name withdraw money from your trading account to it, even if you deposited via electronic payment system or bank wire check your card’s account balance on the Internet and replenish it on the Payoneer payment system website pay for products and services in any part of the world Promotion rules One client can get free Prepaid FBS MasterCard only once To get the card you must deposit at least $500. Bonuses are not considered as deposits To get the card your account has to be verified. To verify the account, please submit your personal ID scan and an address proof Prepaid FBS MasterCard is valid for three years and has no overall balance limit, while cash withdrawal limit of 5000 USD per day FBS reserves the right to change or modify the promotion rules, stop the promotion or any of its parts anytime without prior notification. All the changes will be announced on our website in the “Company news” section FBS wishes you Finance,Freedom and Success in trading! (Best mini Forex Broker of 2010 - 2011) Stay connected with FBS because its all about you!

"Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD"(2012-01-23) The single currency opened earlier today, but then managed to reach Friday’s close rising to $1.2940. Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the short-term outlook for EUR/USD is positive as long as it’s trading above $1.2800. In their view, euro may rise to resistance in the $1.3077/3145 area or even to $1.3245. If the pair drops below $1.28, it will likely decline towards August 2010 minimum in the $1.2588/30 zone. Later today: • German and French debt auctions; • Euro zone finance ministers meeting; • EU foreign ministers also assemble, with possible further sanctions against Iran’s nuclear program on the agenda. Chart Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-23/16460-commerzbank-comments-eurusd

Hurry up and take part in «999» monthly trader demo contest and WIN!!! Hurry up to take part and WIN! FBS runs “999” demo contest every month. The idea of the contest is pretty straightforward: each participant gets a demo account with 9999 USD balance in it and 1:100 leverage. You can trade 28 major currency pairs and EAs are allowed. 3 participants with the highest deposits by the end of the contest period are announced the winners. It is them who receive withdrawable prizes from FBS. The total prize fund is 999 USD and the winners receive the following rewards: The total prize fund is 999 USD and the winners receive the following rewards: 1st prize – 555 USD 2nd prize – 333 USD 3rd prize – 111 USD The contestant with the lowest deposit gets a free FBS MasterCard. All the prizes can be withdrawn anytime. Registration is open from 10.01.12 till 23.01.12 Contest period: 24.01.12 - 24.02.12 Click Here for Registration Click Here to see Participants FBS wishes you Finance,Freedom and Success in trading! (Best mini Forex Broker of 2010 - 2011) Stay connected with FBS because its all about you!

"SocGen: buy CAD/JPY"(2012-01-20) Analysts at Societe Generale believe that US economy will keep outperforming the European one. Never the less, they think it would be wise to protect oneself from the deterioration of the risk sentiment. To do that the bank recommends buying Canadian dollar versus Japanese yen at 76.00 targeting 79.00 and stopping at 75.00. The specialists have studied the dynamics of Canadian dollar and other more volatile currencies like Mexican peso and Australian dollar against key stock and volatility indexes and found out that the correlation with CAD/JPY is close to zero. As a result, those who choose this pair will enjoy the profits of bullish trade on the positive economic data, while if the situation deteriorates the decline of CAD/JPY won’t be as strong as the drop of other risky crosses, so one will be able to minimize losses. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-20/16457-socgen-buy-cadjpy

"Westpac recommends selling EUR/NZD"(2012-01-20) The single currency has managed to strengthen versus the greenback this week. Euro was supported by the successful bond auctions in Spain and France and positive US labor market data. The number of people seeking unemployment benefits plummeted last week to 352,000, the fewest since April 2008. However, analysts at Westpac see the advance as EUR/USD only as the selling opportunity. In their view, liquidity in the market “is supporting risk seeking”, which should lead investors out of currencies like the euro and into things like commodity currencies. As a result, the bank recommends going short on EUR/NZD around $1.6000 stopping at $1.6180 and targeting $1.5650. Westpac notes that the Reserve bank of New Zealand is one of the few which is unlikely to cut borrowing costs. Low inflation data creates an attractive entry point for the trade: New Zealand’s CPI declined by 0.3% in the fourth quarter (q/q). Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-20/16455-westpac-recommends-selling-eurnzd

"Why BoE may decide to wait with QE?"(2012-01-20) While the market’s expecting to see more quantitative easing from the British central bank in February, Ben Broadbent, external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), says that the central bank probably won’t be so quick to act. The economist justifies this assumption be several points. To begin with, during the past half a year the downside risks for British economy have slightly subsided. The odds are that UK economic growth picks up in the second half of the year and the household income growth improves. Moreover, UK will gain from the positive effects of loose ECB policy. Broadbent underlines that the quarterly pace of economic growth in 2012 is likely to be volatile. Such events as the Olympics in the third quarter will contribute to growth volatility. “I would say very, very near term (output looks) slightly weaker. In the slightly less near term Q1 is marginally stronger. Over six months, the downside risks have been lessened slightly - partly because of what the ECB has done, partly because of QE itself and you can see that in risk asset markets - quite clearly”, claims the policymaker. Broadbent adds that the decline in headline CPI inflation from 4.8% in November to 4.2% in December should help to maintain inflation expectations. The BoE meeting will take place on February 9. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-20/16453-why-boe-may-decide-wait-qe

"Gaitame.com: NZD will fall by 5%"(2012-01-20) Technical analysts at to Gaitame.com Research Institute believe that New Zealand’s dollar may fall versus the greenback by almost 5%. The specialists note that NZD/USD didn’t manage to hold above 200-day MA and is now going to survive downward correction. In addition, the RSI (relative strength index) returned below 70 signaling that kiwi may reverse direction. According to the specialists, NZD/USD may go down to $0.7876 (20-day MA) in January and then probably to $0.7640. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the pair to drop to 0.7500 by the end of March. Chart. Daily NZD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-20/16452-gaitamecom-nzd-will-fall-5

Funds protection !!! In an effort to ensure the security of your funds FBS uses top-notch bank technologies. You can be sure your funds are security guaranteed. Withdrawals only to verified account details You can only withdraw funds to the same account you used for deposit. Therefore the funds can not be withdrawn to anywhere else but your own bank or e-currency account. Withdrawals confirmation via SMS Every withdrawal request is confirmed by a one-time SMS-code. Therefore only you can confirm your withdrawal. Secured login to your Personal Area SSL-protected Personal Area login makes your password safe and secure. So no one but you can access your personal area. Passwords recovery via SMS The most critical passwords can be recovered only after the SMS-code confirmation. Personal Area access logs We store complete access logs. You can always check the time and IP address of access to your Personal Area. n case of unauthorized access you should always contact our Customer Support. Segregated bank accounts Your funds are stored in the segregated bank accounts, which are used to separate company’s money from clients’ funds. Being a regulated broker, FBS has to observe the strict international requirements for the minimal equity capital as well as be audited periodically. FBS wishes you Finance,Freedom and Success in trading! (Best mini Forex Broker of 2010 - 2011) Stay connected with FBS because its all about you!

"EUR/USD on the upside, but outlook still bearish"(2012-01-19) The single currency keeps going up versus the greenback on the positive sentiment about US economic prospects. There’s a bunch of important data released today in the United States which is projected to be better than forecasts. US unemployment claims are thought to have declined in the week before January 14 from 399K to 387K. At the same time, demand for euro may be regarded as limited as the talks between Greece and its private creditors represented by the Institute of International Finance on a debt-swap plan continue for the second day. France will offer debt later today with maturities from 2014 to 2040. Spain will also sell notes and bonds maturing in 2016, 2019 and 2022 today. EUR/USD rose from Friday’s minimum of $1.2624 to the levels in $1.2860 area. Never the less, analysts at Citigroup and Nomura are bearish on the pair citing the euro zone’s weak economy and the poor state of the region’s finance. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-19/16446-eurusd-upside-outlook-still-bearish

Gold Trading with FBS !!! Gold is a highly profitable asset which constantly grows in price. Constant turmoil in financial markets and the global economic crisis make gold a very attractive tool for investors. In today's world, gold is one of the most reliable ways to keep your funds safe. Gold price has grown 6 times in the last 10 years. In other words it is 600% in 10 years or 60% a year! Gold is one of the easiest and understandable trading tools Total profit 166022 USD 16602 % FBS wishes you Finance,Freedom and Success in trading! (Best mini Forex Broker of 2010 - 2011) Stay connected with FBS because its all about you!

"UBS: how SBN will possibly act"(2012-01-16) The single currency declined versus Swiss franc from December 7 maximum in the 1.2445 area. At the beginning of this year euro’s decline accelerated after the resignation of the SNB’s president Philipp Hildebrand, who promoted EUR/CHF peg. On Friday the pair EUR/CHF hit 1.2061. Analysts at UBS claim that if the Swiss National Bank holds EUR/CHF at 1.20, deflation pressure in 2012 will strengthen due to strong franc and recession in the euro area. As a result, Switzerland’s monetary authorities will eventually have to raise EUR/CHF minimal level to 1.30 during 2012 in order to offset falling consumer prices. At the same time, the specialists really think that Hildebrand’s departure will make the central bank less willing to increase EUR/CHF floor. So, the bank expects SNB to keep the floor at 1.20 during the next few months before lifting it higher as the nation’s economy won’t be able to deal with franc’s strength on its own. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-17/16443-ubs-how-sbn-will-possibly-act

"Merrill Lynch: forecasts for euro and pound"(2012-01-17) Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch think that the single currency may drop to $1.2510 versus the greenback in the near term. In the medium term the specialists see EUR/USD falling to $1.12 and even $1.08 due to both fundamental issues and technical patterns. Chart. Weekly EUR/USD According to the bank, euro zone’s problems are also weighing on the British pound. Merrill Lynch claims that the pair GBP/USD will ultimately slide to $1.38. The specialists recommend selling sterling at $1.5300 stopping at $1.5425 and targeting $1.4250. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-17/16440-merrill-lynch-forecasts-euro-and-pound

"January 17: data and comments"(2012-01-17) Yesterday Standard & Poor’s reduced the rating of the EFSF, the euro area’s 440-billion-euro bailout fund, from AAA to AA+ after earlier downgrades of France and Austria as the fund’s obligations are no longer fully supported either by guarantees from EFSF members rated AAA by S&P, or by AAA rated securities. The downgrade of the EFSF was no big surprise after Friday's mass downgrade of nine euro-zone countries. Klaus Regling, chief executive officer of the facility, claimed that “EFSF has sufficient means to fulfill its commitments” until the launch of permanent ESM (European Stability Mechanism) in 2012. According to the data released today, China’s GDP added 8.9% y/y in the fourth quarter versus 8.7% expected. As a result, EUR/USD managed to rise to $1.2750 on the short squeeze. Even EUR/CHF backed away from the 1.20 danger zone. Asian equity markets added 1.5% on average; gold and oil also rise 1.5% to $1663/oz and $100.30/bbl respectively. Later today: • British CPI (9:30 a.m. GMT); • BOE Gov King Speaks (9:45 a.m. GMT); • German ZEW Economic Sentiment (10:00 a.m. GMT); • Bank of Canada’s meeting: overnight rate release (2:00 p.m. GMT); • EFSF, Greece, Spain: debt auctions. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-17/16439-january-17-data-and-comments

"HSBC: Germany is vulnerable to crisis"(2012-01-16) Analysts at HSBC note that that fact that S&P downgraded European economies on Friday wasn’t unexpected as in December the ratings agency warned the region’s policymakers. The specialists claim that the euro zone’s officials are guilty of 3 sins: optimism, inaction and omission. Firstly, too many countries are too optimistic about recovery when all the evidence is now pointing towards recession in both the periphery and the core. Secondly, inaction is inevitable for politicians faced with a difficult trade-off between political expediency and fiscal reality. Thirdly, the idea of a fiscal pact doesn’t deal with the shortfall of income which led to today’s crisis. According to HSBC, euro zone’s difficulties in the coming months will likely strengthen. The economists think that Germany will get under pressure as its exports to other nations of the currency union will shrink, while its financial institutions are exposed to the region’s debt. As a result, the leading European economy will be forced into recession. HSBC expects that the ECB will have to step in and start quantitative easing. That would make the crisis easier to solve, though the ultimate way out may be provided only by the political action. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-16/16438-hsbc-germany-vulnerable-crisis

"UBS: recommendations for EUR/USD"(2012-01-16) Analysts at UBS recommend selling euro at $1.2755 stopping at $1.3050 and targeting $1.2250. The specialists remind that the European Central Bank is expected to cut 2 more times rates in the next few months from1.00% to 0.50%. In their view, Greece may suffer a disorderly default in March. According to the bank, downgrades of European economies by S&P will have a greater impact on the euro than just one day's price action would suggest – the strategists think that the downgrades still aren’t fully priced in yet. UBS claims that euro’s fair value is in the $1.15/$1.20. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-16/16...ndations-eurusd

"Westpac: recommendations for EUR/USD"(2012-01-16) Analysts at Westpac recommend selling EUR/USD at $1.2650 stopping at $1.2800 and expecting the pair to fall to $1.2350. The specialists don’t expect much of an upward correction amid sovereign downgrades and a breakdown in talks over the Greek debt restructuring. In their view, it seems that the single currency has shifted into a clear downtrend regardless of more supportive signals from stocks and euro basis swap. In addition, the specialists underline that euro’s current decline doesn’t seem excessive as during the past 20 years EUR/USD survived at least 8 sustained, multi-week large slumps when it fell by about 20% peak to trough, while euro has lost only 11% dropping from October 2011 maximum at $1.4250. According to Westpac, from the fundamental point of view, there are only 2 main factors which may reverse euro’s downtrend: another round of QE by the Fed and/or aggressive steps by EU policymakers to bring more definitive coherence to EU finances. Never the less, neither of these outcomes is likely to realize in the short term. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-16/16434-westpac-recommendations-eurusd

"Barclays Capital: comments on British pound"(2012-01-16) Analysts at Barclays Capital claim that as British pound may be able to hold at current levels for a while as so far it has managed to close above $1.5270 – the neckline of a multi-week pattern. If GBP/USD closes below this level, it will fall to $1.5150 and $1.4950 later in January. The fact that sterling spiked below this mark on Friday means that the bears will ultimately pull the rate lower. According to the bank, the outlook for pound will remain negative as long as it’s trading below $1.5410.Barclays Capital: comments on British pound. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-16/16431-barclays-capital-comments-british-pound

"J.P.Morgan: sell GBP/USD"(2012-01-16) Analysts at J.P. Morgan recommend selling British pound versus the greenback at $1.5295 stopping at $1.5530 and targeting $1.4800. The specialists remind that the European crisis has strong negative impact on British economy as about 40% of UK exports go to the euro area and a large percentage of the nation’s banks have claims on the euro zone. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-01-16/16429-jpmorgan-sell-gbpusd