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"SocGen: China may lower GDP target "(2012-03-01) The National People's Congress will convene in China on March 5 and last for a week discussing the Government Work Report which will reveal the nation’s targets for growth and inflation, detail the fiscal budget and the priorities for reforms in 2012. Analysts at Societe Generale believe that the general direction of Chinese policymakers will remain the same: the nation will continue being focused on “making progress while maintaining stability”. In their view, China will reiterate “prudent monetary policy” and “proactive fiscal policy”. According to the bank, China will likely diminish GDP target to 7.5% indicating increasing commitment to structural reforms and less appetite for aggressive investment stimulus. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-01/16774-socgen-china-may-lower-gdp-target

"Commerzbank is bearish on EUR/USD"(2012-03-01) Technical analysts at Commerzbank think that the pair EUR/USD may have reversed downwards. The specialists claim that support for EUR/USD is situated at $1.3318 (February 1 maximum), $1.3293 (February 21 maximum), $1.3199 (late December maximum), $1.3126 (the uptrend channel support) and $1.3066 (55-day MA). According to the bank, resistance lies at $1.3389 (yesterday’s minimum), $1.3436 (50% Fibonacci retracement) and $1.3487 (February maximum). Commerzbank says that the outlook for euro will remain bearish as long as it’s trading below $1.3487. If the European currency overcomes this level, it will get chance to climb to $1.3550 (December maximum) and $1.3628 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from October to January). Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-01/16773-commerzbank-bearish-eurusd

"Comments on EUR/USD "(2012-03-01) Today is the first day of EU economic summit. The meeting of the European leaders will be focused on the ways of reviving the region’s economy postponing the discussion of Europe’s financial-crisis firewall. Analysts at Mizuho Securities claim that the markets are still concerned about the future of the euro area. The specialists are bearish on EUR/USD expecting the pair to slide to $1.25 by June 30. The single currency dropped versus the greenback yesterday from nearly 3-month maximums in the $1.3480 area to the levels around $1.3315 after the ECB allotted 530 billion euro of cheap three-year credits to the European banks as investors were “buying on rumors, selling on facts”. Then euro was hit after the Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke didn’t signal another round of quantitative easing. Support for EUR/USD is currently situated at $1.3293 (100-day MA). Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-01/16768-comments-eurusd

"The essentials of Ben Bernanke’s testimony "(2012-03-01) - The Fed’s Chairman confirmed that the interest rates are likely to stay low at least until the end of 2014 as unemployment level is still high and inflation outlook is subdued. - Bernanke didn’t mention additional monetary stimulus measures like QE3. - “Gasoline prices have moved up, primarily reflecting higher global oil prices – a development that is likely to push up inflation temporarily while reducing consumers’ purchasing power.” - Comments on the situation in euro area: “if Europe has a mild downturn… and if the financial situation remains under control that the effect on the US might not be terribly serious”. At the same time, there is “significant risk” of stress and contagion from “a major financial accident”. Analysts at Barclays Capital note that US central bank is passively moving away from excessive easing approach that will be a positive factor for US dollar. According to the data released yesterday, US GDP added 3% in the final 3 month of last year (vs. the consensus forecast of 2.8% growth). Conference Board said that confidence among US consumers climbed to a 12-month maximum in February. Beige Book, regional business survey, also published yesterday showed that American economy expanded at a “modest to moderate pace” in January and early February, the main driver of the expansion was manufacturing. Bernanke will continue giving its semiannual testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-01/16...ankes-testimony

"ECB allotted 530 billion euro to euro zone’s banks"(2012-02-29) The single currency fell versus the greenback after the European Central Bank the injected a huge amount of three-year cash into the banking system. The ECB allotted 530 billion euro in 3-year contracts at 1% interest. The first long term refinancing operation (LTRO) in December accounted only for 489 billion euro. However, the figure was close to what the market has been expecting, so EUR/USD got limited on the upside. One may see that euro’s correlation with risky assets has broken as higher-yielding currencies such as Australian and New Zealand’s dollars rallied against US dollar. The reason is that increased liquidity may boost carry trades in which investors use lower-yielding currencies buy riskier assets, so that EUR will get under pressure. On the one hand, money from the ECB will help the region’s banks to meet their financing needs and continue easing tension at the euro zone’s bond market. On the other hand, LRTO can’t resolve the euro zone debt crisis and the excess liquidity could weigh on the single currency in coming months. Support levels for EUR/USD lie at $1.3400 and $1.3388, while resistance levels are situated at $1.3485, $1.3500 and $1.3547. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-02-29/16764-ecb-allotted-530-billion-euro-euro-zones-banks

"BOTMUFJ: EUR/USD technical forecast"(2012-02-29) Technical analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ claim that the single currency may rise to the 200-day MA at $1.3722. The specialists note that EUR/USD’s 5- and 21-day MAs are both pointing up – long-term bullish signal. At the same time, the bank says that if euro doesn’t manage to overcome $1.3509 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the pair’s decline from the May 4 maximum at $1.4940 to January 13 minimum at $1.2620), it may slide to the 90-day MA at $1.3243. As the recent advance of the single currency was very rapid, EUR/USD may survive short-term correction. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-02-29/16760-botmufj-eurusd-technical-forecast

"Westpac: trading ahead of LTRO "(2012-02-28) The European Central Bank will conduct its second LTRO operation on Wednesday, February 29. The first round of low-cost refinancing operation took place in December: European banks got 489 billion euro in 3-year credits. Analysts at Westpac claim that if the region’s banks borrow less than 480 billion euro, investors will worry that the markets are too illiquid and will buy the safe-haven greenback against Canadian dollar. At the same time, if banks borrow more than 480 billion euro, one should sell US dollar versus its Canadian counterpart. The specialists favor the second outcome and recommend traders to take risk. Westpac advices to go short on USD/CAD stopping at 1.0060 and targeting 0.9770. At the same time, the bank warns that one has to be careful as investors could soon change course if they reevaluate and decide that a large take-up implies weakness in the system. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-02-28/16741-westpac-trading-ahead-ltro

"BBH: US dollar’s under pressure due to oil prices"(2012-02-28) Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman note that as oil prices are rising, US dollar will find itself under pressure. The specialists say that the current oil price’s advance is caused by several factors. Firstly, supply from Sudan, Syria and Yemen has sharply contracted due to political instability if not to mention Libya and Iran. Secondly, Japan’s increasing oil consumption replacing nuclear fuel. Moreover, the unusual cold in Europe may be fueling demand as well. According to BBH, high oil prices increase the risk that the Federal Reserve will launch another round of quantitative easing as the economy of the United States will suffer as oil import becomes more and more expensive. The Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke will be testifying before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, so the bank recommends watching his comments for the hints of the central bank’s opinion on the issue. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-02-28/16739-bbh-us-dollars-under-pressure-due-oil-prices

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"Nomura: USD/JPY forecast revised up"(2012-02-22) Analysts at Nomura revised up their forecast for USD/JPY from 75 to 79 yen by the end of the first quarter of 2012. The forecasts for the end of Q2 and the year-end were left unchanged at 80 and 81 yen consequently. The specialists claim that odds that the greenback will resume its decline decreased due to the Bank of Japan’s additional quantitative easing, better US macroeconomic data and easing tensions in the euro area. Nomura draws investors’ attention to the fact that Japanese central bank decided to increase investment in the government bonds with maturity of 1-2 years. This would cap the possibility of 2-year yield growth. As a result, the yield differential between 2-year US and Japanese securities will increase encouraging USD/JPY. In addition, internal capital flows also point at yen’s gradual depreciation. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-02-22/16705-nomura-usdjpy-revised

"BoE minutes coming: watch the pound"(2012-02-22) Today the market’s looking forward to the release of the Bank of England’s February meeting minutes (9:30 a.m. GMT). The minutes will unveil how the central bank’s 9-member Monetary Policy Committee votes on the expansion of asset purchase program by 50 billion pounds ($79 billion) to 325 billion pounds this month. The consensus forecast is that the decision was unanimous. The experts, however, don’t rule out the possibility of 1-2 dissenting votes from the hawks against more QE. The BoE decided to conduct additional quantitative easing in order to help weak UK economy: Britain’s revived Q4 GDP figures which are released on Friday will likely confirm that the nation’s economy contracted by 0.2% in the final 3 months of 2012 (q/q). BoE Deputy Governor Charlie Bean claimed that despite the news that Greece will get the second bailout, serious risks remain and the debt crisis won’t be over. Such situation will hurt Britain hitting its exports and finance and affecting its consumer and business confidence. The official was also worried about the fate of other peripheral European economies. On the one hand, it’s necessary to note that some positive consumption and housing data have been released so far, so the BoE may improve its fundamental outlook for the UK economy. In this case pound will be poised to strengthen. On the other hand, cautious tone may signal that the door is open to expand the central bank’s asset purchase program beyond 325 billion pounds – such outcome would increase bearish pressure on sterling. Since the beginning of the year the pair GBP/USD consolidated between $1.5680 and $1.5930. Analysts at Lloyds say that sterling won’t be able to rise above $1.6000 versus the greenback in the near term. Specialists at Commerzbank think that the pair may test 200-day MA and then slide back to $1.5645. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-02-22/16702-boe-minutes-coming-watch-pound

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"UBS: dollar’s long-term advance against euro will go on"(2012-02-21) Analysts at UBS claimed that the single currency will continue declining versus the greenback in the longer term from the record maximum at $1.6038 reached in July 2008. The specialists think that US dollar will break its negative relationship with oil prices as the United States become more independent of foreign energy supply due to the development of shale-gas deposits and an increase in domestic oil production. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-02-21/16695-ubs-dollars-long-term-advance-against-euro-will-go

"Euro strengthened on Greek bailout news"(2012-02-21) The single currency went up versus the greenback erasing earlier decline and reached 3-month maximum against Japanese yen as the euro-zone finance ministers agreed on a second bailout package for Greece saving the nation from default in March. The package includes a 53.5% write-down for Greek bondholders – it’s a bigger trade-off from the nation’s private creditors than initially expected. Debt-swap bonds will have a coupon of 2% in 2014, 3% in 2015-2020 and 4.3% after that. The ECB President Mario Draghi expressed his approval of the deal. Euro shorts are covered now. The pair EUR/USD opened around $1.3250 and started sliding lower as the press conference was constantly delayed. The market players were pretty sure that there would be an agreement and there were enough longs on an intraday basis and these longs kept getting squeezed out, the longer the decision was delayed. After the announcement euro made 70-pip spike up. Currently the pair came close to the opening levels as stop-losses were all done. Analysts at Credit Suisse claim that euro will likely be capped as although “short-covering is supporting the euro, this much was within expectations”. In addition, EUR/USD will get under pressure due to improving US economy. The specialists think that the pair will trade in range between $1.3150 and $1.3350 for the rest of the global day and between $1.3050 and $1.3350 during the coming week. Chart. H1 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-02-21/16696-euro-strengthened-greek-bailout-news

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"Western Union about NZD/USD"(2012-02-17) New Zealand’s dollar got a lift today versus its US counterpart as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s governor Alan Bollard claimed that the nation’s growth numbers are currently understated due to conservative statistical interpretations and the particular nature of the economy. According to Bollard, if Australian conventions are applied New Zealand’s GDP could be 10% higher. Analysts at Western Union claim that NZD/USD is helped by more positive sentiment towards Greece: “All it takes is another bit of speculation that the Greeks have found more places to slash their budget, and while there is nothing concrete they have said that it (the second bailout) is likely to be green lit on Monday – which is all the market apparently needs”. The specialists expect kiwi to trade at the current levels or edge higher to 0.8400. In their view, support for NZD is situated at 0.8320 (February 15 and 9 minimums), while resistance is found at 0.8420 (February 15 maximum). Chart. Daily NZD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-02-17/16688-western-union-about-nzdusd

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"USD/JPY: will the recovery continue?"(2012-02-16) The greenback keeps rising versus Japanese yen. On Tuesday USD/JPY broke above the 200-day MA spurring the bullish sentiment. Today the pair set 3-month maximum at 78.88 yen. The cross is still trading below the post-intervention spike at 79.52 set at October 31 and November 1 maximum at 78.97. However, some analysts keep warning investors that it may be premature to turn bullish on US dollar. The specialists remind that in the past few years USD/JPY broke above the 200-day MA many times, but this signals turned out to be false and there was no bullish reversal afterwards. In addition, as the possibility that the Federal Reserve will decide to launch another round of quantitative easing seems strong enough, it would be hard for traders to sell yen. Expectations of QE3 will keep US short-term note yields (in particular, 2-year Treasury yields) low. USD/JPY is strongly correlated (90%) with yield spread between Japanese and US 2-year debt, so in such conditions US dollar will remain under pressure. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-02-16/16685-usdjpy-will-recovery-continue

"Commerzbank: USD/CAD technicals"(2012-02-16) Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the greenback keeps trading around the 200-day MA versus its Canadian counterpart. According to the bank, resistance for US currency lies at 1.0049/73 (December minimum and January 3 minimum) and at 1.0149/46 (55-day MA and the 3-month downtrend). The outlook for the pair will become positive only above the latter. Commerzbank says US dollar won’t likely get that high this week. The specialists think that the pair USD/CAD may slide to October minimum at 0.9892. In their view, this level will contain further declines as only an unexpected drop and 2 daily closes below the October low would point towards further range trading with a bearish bias and the possibility of such outcome isn’t high. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-02-16/16683-commerzbank-usdcad-technicals

"Euro’s pressed by Greek uncertainty"(2012-02-16) The single currency fell to 3-month minimum versus the greenback. Tomorrow German’s Chancellor Angela Merkel meets Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti. The leaders will hold a joint press conference afterwards. On Monday, February 20, euro zone’s finance ministers will gather to discuss a second bailout package for Greece. Initially the meeting was scheduled to take place yesterday, but then was postponed. Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Junker assured the markets that “all the necessary decisions” on the issue will be taken at February 20 meeting. The markets worried that a delay in Greek aid will increase borrowing costs for the region. The situation remains rather uncertain. According to Reuters, several EU sources said on Wednesday the euro zone is examining ways of holding back parts or even the entire bailout program until after Greek elections in April while still ensuring it avoids a disorderly default. The risk sentiment was also affected by Moody’s announcement that the ratings of several banks including UBS, Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank are put on review to the downside. In the current circumstances watch Spain’s and France’s debt auctions later today. France will offer 8.5 billion euro in 2-, 3- and 5-year bonds, while Spain plans to sell 4 billion euro in securities maturing in January and July 2015 and in October 2019. Analysts at Nomura believe that by the end of the month EUR/USD will hit $1.2500. In their view, the market has lost confidence and investors won’t have much incentive to buy euro. The pair fell today below 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its rally this year at $1.3056 and 55-day MA at $1.3050. Support for euro is now found in the $1.2970 area (50% retracement of the same rally, daily Ichimoku charts' Kijun-sen line and also the Cloud’s bottom). Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-02-16/16676-euros-pressed-greek-uncertainty

"HSBC about the forex market prospects"(2012-02-15) While many experts expect the single currency to keep falling versus the greenback, analysts at HSBC think that EUR/USD will rise to $1.3700 by the end of the second quarter. The specialists don’t think the market has arrived at any kind of final verdict on Greece. There is disappointment that there wasn’t anything firmer in terms of ring-fencing Greece, but progress has been made and there is political commitment on the outcome. In that environment, people should still buy the euro, claims the bank. In the short term, euro will push higher and some of the doubts will fade away. HSBC also believe that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will defend the floor for EUR/CHF which was set at 1.20 in September 2011 without raising it in the near future. As for USD/CHF, it will remain stable at around 0.90 over the next 3 months. The specialists are bullish on emerging market currencies, even though many are dependent on global growth indicators, and are driven by unpredictable risk appetite. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-02-15/16675-hsbc-about-forex-market-prospects

"Analysts on USD/JPY prospects"(2012-02-15) Analysts at BNP Paribas believe that one shouldn’t hurry to turn bullish on USD/JPY. The specialists underline that though the Bank of Japan decided to keep expanding its balance sheet and set a 1% inflation target, it will not be guiding policy any differently. The economists remind that asset purchases didn’t manage to reverse yen’s uptrend either in the past 3 years or during the prior QE in 2002-2004. According to the bank, USD/JPY will trade in 73 yen area in first quarter, 71 in the second one and then decline to 70 in the final 3 months of the year. Never the less, analysts at Barclays Capital note that the BOJ is trying to "catch up to its counterparts, and this adds to the downward pressure on yen already prevailing from Japan’s ongoing external balance deterioration and the risk of a sovereign downgrade toward fiscal year-end (March 31)”. With Japanese interest rates also “lower for longer” Japanese investors will look abroad for better returns stepping up monetary outflows from Japan. In addition, US dollar will be helped by American economic recovery. In their view, USD/JPY will rise to 79.00, 81.00 and 83.00 yen in 3, 6 and 12 months. By the way, specialists at Societe Generale point out that the move of Japanese central bank doesn’t look that large compared with ECB’s actions: the BOJ will increase bond purchases by a further 10 trillion yen this year, which could increase the size of their balance sheet by 2% of GDP, while the ECB's December LTRO added nearly 5% GDP to the central bank's balance sheet (remember that there will be another 3-year LTRO February 29). The specialists say that though the fast that USD/JPY rose above 200-day MA is rather promising, the pair still has to overcome the critical 80 yen level. Economists at CitiFX believe that yen’s depreciation will be short-lived. In their view, it will be difficult for USD/JPY to start sustainable rally until US Treasury yields as a whole start to press higher. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-02-15/16673-analysts-usdjpy-prospects