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"Mizuho: short-term bearish on USD/JPY"(2012-04-09) Analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank believe that the greenback may drift lower versus Japanese yen sliding to 80.00 in the next 2 weeks. “When we look at the amount of short positions in the yen, we see that they really have not decreased. Their volume is large. At some point, these positions will be closed, leading to an increase in the yen. Employment data can serve as an impetus for this,” say the specialists. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-09/17211-mizuho-short-term-bearish-usdjpy

"EUR/USD: analysts’ comments "(2012-04-05) EUR/USD: analysts’ comments Bank of the West (California): EUR/USD will test its recent trading range $1.30/1.35 on the downside. As the expectations of QE3 in the US have receded, the market’s attention has turned to Spain which is struggling with the deficit targets. KTB Securities: The debt itself is not an issue as long as there is sufficient enough (economic) growth to support it, but Spain's weak growth outlook does not paint a pretty picture. ANZ: If the peripheral governments cannot make the necessary reforms, in the long term that’s a negative for euro. Citigroup: The market has been locked into a range because there was no dominant FX theme. Now it looks as if higher US rates and concern on Spanish debt could be the short-term drivers, opening up room for higher volatility BBH: Based on current spot and volatility levels, indicative pricing suggests almost a 50% chance of testing the mid-Jan low near $1.26 here in Q2. Euro faces strong resistance at $1.3380 – this level has been tested several times so far but the pair failed to break above it. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/17166-eurusd-analysts-comments

"GBP/USD: technical comments "(2012-04-05) GBP/USD: technical comments On Tuesday, April 3, British pound slipped versus the greenback breaking below the short-term uptrend support line affected by the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. On the weekly chart pound returned below the 200-week MA after testing higher levels. The pair found support in the $1.5840/30 area (March 20 & 28 minimums, 200 MA on H4 chart and 50% Fibonacci retracement of sterling’s advance from March minimum at $1.5600 to April 2 maximum at $1.6062). Chart. H4 GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/17162-gbpusd-technical-comments

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"Draghi: Upside inflation risks seen prevailing in 2012 "(2012-04-04) According to Mario Draghi, the region would undergo a moderate recovery over the course of the year, while inflation in the bloc would remain above 2% for the rest of the year. However, Draghi claims that ECB possesses all the necessary tools to tackle potential inflation risks. He expects the inflation to fall back below 2% in 2013 and to remain in line with price stability. The ECB President repeated several times that downside economic risks prevail and he called talk of an exit strategy from LTO premature. Such comments harmed EUR/USD which fell below the 100-day MA to $1.3105. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-04/17160-draghi-upside-inflation-risks-seen-prevailing-2012

"Commerzbank: bearish on NZD/USD"(2012-04-04) Analysts at Commerzbank believe that the decline of New Zealand’s dollar versus its US counterpart may accelerate in the medium term. The specialists note that NZD/USD was affected by the unexpected trade deficit in Australia and the speculation about China’s economic slowdown. The bank underlines that kiwi failed to overcome resistance at $0.8289 (March 19 maximum) and expect the pair to slide to $0.7969, $0.7965 and $0.7922. According to Commerzbank, in the longer term NZD/USD risks to fall to $0.7460/7369 (December 15, 2011 minimum/November 25, 2011 minimum) as long as it’s trading below $0.8471 (February maximum). Chart. Daily NZD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-04/17157-commerzbank-bearish-nzdusd

"Standard Chartered: comments on the euro "(2012-04-04) • Despite the slight signs of improvement in Europe, economic data, coming from euro zone, show recession is set to continue. European manufacturing PMIs (March) show that only 3 countries performed well last month: UK: 52.1 (an 8-month high) Austria: 51.5 (a 3-month low) Ireland: 51.5 (a 10-month high) Netherlands: 49.6 (a 2-month low) Germany: 48.4 (a 3-month low) Italy: 47.9 (a 6-month high) France: 46.7 (a 33-month low) Spain: 44.5 (a 3-month low) Greece: 41.3 (a 3-month high) • In Q2 the euro may stop appreciating versus the other key currencies due to following reasons: - Flow drivers for EUR strength are no longer so supportive - Forthcoming elections in France and Greece may resume the crisis. ECB may cut the rates by 25 bps to 0.75% in Q2 - Oil price growth is slowing, so support from oil-related FX reserve diversification is expected to decrease • The latest IMM Commitments of Traders data showed that non-commercial accounts increased net short positions by 7,194 on the week to 89,180. Within this, 'leveraged funds' (hedge funds and trading models) increased their net shorts by 6,017 to 80,577; and asset managers reduced their net long positions by 5,648 to 8,148. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-04/17156-standard-chartered-comments-euro

"Dollar rises on FOMC minutes "(2012-04-04) The greenback strengthened against a basket of currencies on the backdrop of the release of the minutes of the FOMC’s meeting on March 13. The March minutes show decreased urgency to add stimulus with no sentiment expressed for additional easing unless the economic conditions worsen. The Fed also affirmed its plan, first announced in January, to hold low interest rates through late 2014. Rochford Capital: The U.S. monetary policy will stay status quo for the foreseeable future. The EUR/USD is a bit of a sell at these levels in the short term. However, the policymakers pointed the labor market still remains weak. They expect the unemployment to remain high till the end of 2012. U.S. factory orders in February increased 1.3%, offsetting a similar decline in January, though were below the consensus forecast (1.5%). Economic data to watch Today at 13:15 GMT the ADP non-farm employment indicator is expected to show a 206,000 increase in the number of employed people during March versus a gain of 216,000 in February, the biggest in two months. The weekly number of unemployment claims, released tomorrow (13:30 GMT), is forecasted to decline to 355,000 against 359,000. Non-manufacturing PMI release is scheduled on Wednesday (15:00 GMT). EUR/USD The currency pair declined today to $1.370 level. Economists expect EUR/USD to trade at $1.310 by the end of 2012. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-04/17151-dollar-rises-fomc-minutes

"BarCap: euro expected to decline "(2012-04-04) Strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch recommend going short on the euro versus the Aussie, entering the trade at the current levels with a stop at 1.3050 and a medium-term target of 1.2200. Analysts believe the Australian dollar is a profitable bet these days: copper prices are rising, and Australia is the major copper exporter. Moreover, April is the strongest month of the year for the Aussie historically. The common currency prospects, however, are not so clear-cut. The European bank stocks are weakening and interest rate spreads between German and Spanish bonds are widening. One can’t say with certainty that European economic unease will not resume in the nearest future. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-04/17149-merrill-lynch-trading-recommendations-euraud

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"AUD: RBA rate statement lowered Aussie"(2012-04-03) AUD: RBA rate statement lowered Aussie Australian currency declined against all of its 16 major counterparts. The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate intact at 4.25%, coming up with expectations. However, according to the chairman Glenn Stevens, the RBA board decided to see forthcoming key data on prices to reassess its outlook for inflation, before considering a further step to ease monetary policy. The release of the first-quarter CPI is scheduled on April 24 (5:30 GMT). According to the Melbourne Institute, the nation’s consumer prices rose 1.8% last month from a year earlier, the slowest pace since October 2009. United Overseas Bank: The tone of the RBA’s statement was quite dovish. Interest-rate expectations are going to fall; this will continue to weigh on the Aussie. Moreover, retail sales rose 0.2% in February, below the forecasts and the January print, both at 0.3%. In addition, on May 10 (10:30 GMT) the annual budget release is expected. Prime Minister Julia Gillard said today the government will deliver a “tough budget”, when the Treasury presents a spending plan for the coming fiscal year. Societe Generale: If the signal from the budget is deep fiscal cuts, there is no option for the RBA but to ease monetary policy to accommodate tighter fiscal conditions. On the other hand, China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, posted upbeat figures today. China’s non-manufacturing PMI climbed to 58.0 in March from 57.3 in February. AUD/USD is currently trading around $1.0380, below the 50-, 100- and 200-day MA. Most analysts forecast the bearish pressure on the Aussie to continue. The support for the currency pair lies at $1.0370, $1.0355, $1.0335, $1.0305 (local minimum) and $1.0260, whereas the resistance – at $1.0415, $1.0450, $1.0485, $1.0510 and $1.0600. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-03/17141-aud-rba-rate-statement-lowered-aussie

<p> </p> <div> "BarCap: euro expected to decline "(2012-04-03)</div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div><div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>BarCap: euro expected to decline</div> <div></div> <div> </div> <div>Analysts at Barclays Capital advise investors to watch ECB policy rate press conference on Wednesday (14:30 GMT) for the hints on whether the central bank will move away from full allotment* – this question should be resolved by the end of June. If there are signs of normalization, euro may get some support. Never the less, the economists don’t regard such outcome as very likely.</div> <div> </div> <div>The specialists think that the single currency is likely to get under pressure. The bank draws the market’s attention to the fact that euro area’s Manufacturing PMI remained below 50 in March – not a good sign. </div> <div> </div> <div>According to BarCap, although German economic growth will improve the region’s economic outlook, for now its economic strength is being more than offset by weakness elsewhere. So, despite the fact that the bank expects German industrial production (released on Thursday, 12:00 GMT) to exceed forecasts posting the reading of 0.3% (m/m) vs. the consensus projection of -0.1%, the analysts don’t think that this would lead to the steady growth of the single currency.</div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> Chart. Daily EUR/USD </div><div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-03/17140-barcap-euro-expected-decline</div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div></div>

"CMC Markets: EUR/USD, USD/CHF and AUD outlook "(2012-04-03) CMC Markets: EUR/USD, USD/CHF and AUD outlook Analysts at CMC Markets believe that EUR/USD will fall to $1.20 over the next 12 months. IN their view, USD/CHF would rise from 0.90 to 0.92 in a year. “There was a concern that the Swiss National Bank would not tolerate a stronger Swiss franc and that turned out to be the case.” The specialists expect EUR/CHF floor to hold in the short to medium term. According to CMC Markets, Australian dollar is significantly overvalued and could weaken this year. “There will be further rate cuts out of Australia over the coming months because of deteriorating economic data and a possible slowdown in China.” The economists don’t mean the hard landing scenario in China, but think that demand out of China will diminish for Australian commodities and that will drive flows out of Aussie. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-03/17139-cmc-markets-eurusd-usdchf-and-aud-outlook

"GBP/USD: analysts’ forecasts"(2012-04-03) GBP/USD: analysts’ forecasts According to market strategists at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, nowadays the U.K. currency is on the rise due to high merger-and-acquisition activity in the country, demand for Britain's triple-A bonds, and rising stock prices. However, analysts at Shelter Harbor Capital say from the $1.6000 level problems for the U.K. economy will start; therefore the demand on the sterling is expected to contract. Strategists recommend going short on the pound against the greenback at $1.5991 level with a stop at $1.6100 and a target of $1.5600. Specialists at Westpac Institutional Bank also do not believe the sterling is a reliable currency today, considering the fact that two members of Britain's Monetary Policy Committee are in favor of further QE. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-03/17136-gbpusd-analysts-forecasts

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"RBS: trading recommendations on AUD/USD"(2012-04-02) RBS: trading recommendations on AUD/USD Specialists at RBS recommend buying the Aussie against the dollar, potentially targeting at 1.0751 and stopping at 1.0290. The support lies at 1.0337/54 and at 1.0238 levels, whereas the resistance is placed at 1.0496 (previous support, now resistance), 1.0612 (76.4% retracement of the previous range), 1.0691 and 1.0856 (2012 maximum). According to RBS analysts, going long on AUD/USD may be one of the best trading strategies of April 2012, because the Aussie is strengthening every April at an average of circa 4%. Moreover, the slowing of a downside momentum in the MACD seems to be a positive sign. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-02/17134-rbs-trading-recommendations-audusd

"RBS: trading recommendations on EUR/GBP " (2012-04-02) RBS: trading recommendations on EUR/GBP The RBS analysts recommend going short on EUR/GBP at current levels, targeting at 0.8000 and with a stop on a 2-day close above 0.8510. The reason why the specialists propose such trade is that the common currency is extremely vulnerable to any market pressure. Credit spreads narrowed due to LTRO, but the market sentiment toward financials remains unchanged. Chart. Daily EUR/GBP Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-02/17131-rbs-trading-recommendations-eurgbp

"The outlook for RBA’s actions" (2012-04-02) The outlook for RBA’s actions The Reserve bank of Australia meets tomorrow for an interest rates decision. The majority of the economists expect the central bank to leave the rates changed. Here’s more detailed into on the issue and the expectations of future RBA’s moves. Outcome Looking Ahead ANZ Hold Cut in May NAB Hold Cut in May JP Morgan Hold Hold in 2012 HSBC Hold Cut likely in May TD Securities Hold Two cuts in May/June UBS Hold Hold in 2012 StanChart Hold Westpac Hold Two cuts in May/July Citigroup Hold Cut in May CommSec Hold Cut likely in May Deutsche Bank Hold Cut in May AMP Capital Hold Cut in May Moody's Hold Hold in coming months Barclays Hold Expect more easing St George Hold Cut likely in May Macquarie Hold Cut in May Nomura Hold Hold in 2012 RBC Capital Hold Two cuts in 2012 Goldman Sachs Hold Cut in May RBA Hold Two cuts in May/June Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-02/17130-outlook-rbas-actions

"Standard Chartered: ECB may have to conduct another LTRO"(2012-04-02) Standard Chartered: ECB may have to conduct another LTRO Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank expect further contraction of euro zone’s GDP. In their view, there are 3 main concerns: austerity measures, credit squeeze and high oil prices. The specialists underline that confidence isn’t back and credit isn’t flowing into the real economy (the money, which the ECB provided the region’s banks through LTRO, hasn’t reached households and companies). The unemployment rate will likely continue to rise (10.8% in February). The bank claims that “the ‘true’ firewall remains the European Central Bank”. The ECB’s 1 trillion for banks is “the magic number the market wanted to see.” With 2 rounds of loans committed already, “if the crisis escalates, we think the ECB will have no other option but to provide another”. According to Standard Chartered, EUR/USD will weaken due to the growth differential between the United States and Europe. Euro will be also under pressure due to the ECB’s liquidity increase. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-02/17128-standard-chartered-ecb-may-have-conduct-another-lrto

"USD/JPY: analysts’ forecasts "(2012-04-02) USD/JPY: analysts’ forecasts Bullish views UBS: as new fiscal year started in Japan, yen will lose support of the seasonal repatriation conducted by Japanese companies. USD/JPY will rise to 85 yen in 3 months. Among the factors positive for the pair there are: possibility of higher US Treasury yields in the coming months, more optimism about US economy and more easing from the BOJ. As the central bank meets twice this month, if the policymakers “decide to keep policy on hold on April 10, they can always choose to ease further on April 27,” claim the analysts. J.P.Morgan: in the longer term USD/JPY fair value lies at 115 yen. Bearish views BNP Paribas: USD/JPY will fall to 80 yen in Q3 and to 78 yen by the end of 2012. Standard Chartered: USD/JPY will decline to 77 yen in Q3 and to 74 yen by the end of 2012 as investors seek Japan’s real yields and the US recovery stagnates. It’s also necessary to note that the BOJ has signaled that it doesn’t want the government to become dependent on it printing money. There is a limit to how much the central bank can do, so the bets on weaker yen may shrink. Nomura Securities: yen’s decline which started at the beginning of February was caused mainly by global factors (US yields, stabilization in the euro area). Now reversal is likely, so sell USD/JPY stopping at 84.00 yen and targeting 80.00. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-02/17127-usdjpy-analysts-forecasts

"CFTC trader positioning data"(2012-04-02) CFTC trader positioning data The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that: •The value of the dollar's net long position rose to $19.58 billion in the week ended March 27, from $11.67 billion the previous week. • Euro shorts grew by 6.2k to 89.1k contracts. The euro's volatility (3-month implied volatility) is at its lowest level since August 2008. • The net short pound position declined by 4.7k contracts to 11.1k, the minimum since last September. Small longs were established (658 contracts) and short were pared by (4.1k). • Net short Japanese yen positions jumped 41.8k to 67.6k. This was a function of new shorts being established (17.8k contracts) and longs being cut (24k contracts) to the smallest since mid-2005. • Swiss franc net shorts dropped 3.9k contracts to 15.1k. Both longs and shorts decreased (5.5k and 1.5k). It’s necessary to note that the figures cited above are always a week old at the time of their release. Never the less, CFTC data gives a good oversight into how the market is positioned and if/how these positions are being unwound. Although the CME speculators represent a small fraction of trading in the currency markets, their trades are widely seen as typical of hedge fund investors' currency movements. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-05/16791-cftc-trader-positioning-data

"Yen: volatile week ahead "(2012-04-02) Yen: volatile week ahead Japanese yen opened the week on the down versus the greenback on the weak economic sentiment data: Tankan manufacturing index was unchanged in the first quarter from -4 at the last 3 months of 2011. The negative reading means that there are more pessimists than optimists. Such figures encouraged the talk about the prospects of more easing from the Bank of Japan. The BOJ policy board members are set to meet April 9-10 and April 27. However, the advance of USD/JPY stalled at 83.30 yen and the pair began once again drifting lower. Dollar’s move higher was probably constrained by the selling from exporters. Standard Chartered: “Exporters are clamoring for a weaker yen, but the Cabinet office survey and the Tankan survey suggest you have to take some of those complaints with a grain of salt because both measures suggest Japanese exporters had adjusted to the strong yen in the low 80s.” Trading will likely be quite volatile this week. US dollar will have support at 82 yen – the level from which it has recoiled up 4 times in March. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-02/17124-yen-volatile-week-ahead

"AUS/USD: mixed Chinese data, RBA’s coming"(2012-04-02) AUS/USD: mixed Chinese data, RBA’s coming The closely watched Chinese data came mixed on Sunday: the nation’s official PMI rose from 50.6 in February to 53.1 in March. However, HSBC PMI posted the reading below 50 that indicates industry contraction. AUD/USD opened about 100 pips above Friday’s closing level, but then slid lower returning to that area. The Reserve bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision tomorrow. According to the consensus forecast, the central bank will leave rates unchanged at 4.25%, though today’s data may make the policymakers hesitate: TD-MI gauge showed that Australian inflation fell in March to 1.8%, below RBA’s 2% target, while the building approvals dropped by -7.8% in February (m/m). The most likely outcome is that the RBA will stay on hold, but we’ll see some more dovish notes in the statement. Nomura: “Support for the currency will be evident all week in the Australian dollar as shorts get taken off the table.” Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-02/17123-aususd-mixed-chinese-data-rbas-coming

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