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"Beige book: no surprises "(2012-04-12) Beige book: no surprises According to the Beige book report, released on Wednesday, each of the 12 U.S. bank districts keeps expanding at a modest-to-moderate pace from mid-February through the end of March. The Fed pointed at stronger manufacturing sector, consumer spending, better demand for professional business services, increased tourism and some improvement in the real-estate market. The survey also noted that hiring was steady or increased in most of the country. In general, the estimates remain unchanged from previous Beige book release, but with slightly increased optimism on the back of positive March U.S. data. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-12/17276-beige-book-no-surprises

"AUD/USD grows after employment data "(2012-04-12) AUD/USD grows after employment data The Australian dollar jumped to a one-week high on the backdrop of the surprisingly positive employment data. Strong labor market figures lower concerns that the RBA will cut interest rates from current 4.25% level. Australia’s 3- and 10-year bond yields increased 8 and 3 basis points respectively. In March 44K new jobs were created in Australia versus 6.4K forecasted and 15.4K decline in February. The unemployment rate remains unchanged at 5.2%, compared with forecasts to grow to 5.3%. BNP Paribas specialists expect the Aussie to trade at $1.0500 level in Q2. Moreover, China’s GDP data on Friday may surprise the market and create additional support for AUD/USD. However, analysts at Commerzbank remain bearish on the Aussie vs. the greenback. In their view, there is a strong resistance on the $1.0405 level. They expect the pair to weaken to $0.9863 (Dec. 15 minimum). Early Thursday AUD/USD strengthened to $1.0391, the highest level since April 3. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-12/17272-audusd-grows-after-employment-data

"Short-term outlook for loonie "(2012-04-12) Short-term outlook for loonie Canadian dollar hit yesterday the minimal level against its US counterpart since the end of January: USD/CAD posted high at 1.0051 before returning today to the parity level. On the fundamental part, CAD has its main drivers rising equities and oil prices in action. The current fluctuations are by the approaching release of the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy report (the central bank will meet on April 17 and publish quarterly report on April 18). From the technical point of view, there may be a “double top pattern” confirmed in case of steady trading back below the neckline of the pattern at 1.0010, so we may expect more bearish moves today. Scotia Capital: buying loonie seems OK for now, though one should close USD/CAD shorts if the pair closes above 1.0050/1.0070 breaking out of the range within which it has been stuck for months. RBS: bullish on CAD versus euro and US dollar. As conditions in Canada, the United States and the world as a while have improved, the BOC should revise up the domestic and international outlook. Data to watch: Canada’s February trade balance (forecast: 2.2 billion surplus), New housing price index (forecast +0.2% m/m in February). Chart. H4 USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-12/17271-short-term-outlook-loonie

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"SNB and the market’s confidence "(2012-04-11) SNB and the market’s confidence The Swiss National bank had no problem in defending the EUR/CHF floor set in September for more than half a year. How the difficulties have finally appeared as last Thursday euro breached the minimal level due to the surge of demand for francs and the SNB had to step in selling about 1 billion euro (so the estimates say) to bring it back. Swiss monetary authorities repeated their pledges to constrain franc’s appreciation by the level mentioned above. So, if the market once again pushes euro below that point, the SNB will push it up again. The central bank didn’t eliminate the threat of euro’s plunging below 1.20. The core of the problem is that there are the banks trading EUR/CHF and the transactions of which the SNB can’t monitor in time as they don’t have credit lines with it. If such lines were established and the SNB all dealers on the ICAP-owned EBS system it would be able to prevent piercing of the EUR/CHF floor. In addition, the SNB could mandate some banks to help it defend the floor. However, the Swiss central bank already accepts more than 100 banks with more than 700 trading desks as counterparties and it’s hard to capture every single legitimate trading account on EBS at all times, so this probably wouldn’t work either. The fact is: almost a week passed since April 5, but the ‘breaking the floor’ story hasn’t repeated. It means that the market still has enough faith in the SNB. At the same time, new attempts of euro bears to test the central bank’s resolve are still quite likely as the policymakers delivered nothing new. Chart. H4 EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-11/17266-how-long-will-snb-have-markets-confidence

"Analysts: outlook for sterling "(2012-04-11) Analysts: outlook for sterling Analysts at Morgan Stanley are bearish on the euro and the pound vs. the greenback. In their view, in a year the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD will weaken to $1.15 and $1.46 respectively. According to the specialists, there are signals that the market's optimism has started to fade as the European economies are still facing plenty of difficulties. Risk aversion and increased asset market volatility will hurt the pound. UniCredit currency strategists also don’t expect the cable to climb higher than $1.60 unless something extraordinary happens. However, Mizuho analysts believe the U.K. economy is gradually growing, and the sterling will gather momentum when the global markets stabilize. Moreover, the pound benefits from serving as a safe haven within Europe. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-11/17261-analysts-outlook-sterling

"Westpac: trading EUR/CAD "(2012-04-11) Westpac: trading EUR/CAD Strategists at Westpac Institutional Bank are bearish on euro vs Canadian dollar and advise to sell the EUR/CAD at $1.3080 level with a stop at $1.3170 and a target of $1.2770. In their view, Canada’s surprising job growth (82K in March versus 11K forecasted) and possible hawkish actions of the Bank of Canada (on a meeting 17-18 April key interest rate may be hiked from current 1%) will support the loonie. However, if the U.S. labor market data will remain negative, it may weigh on the Canadian currency. Chart. Daily EUR/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-11/17258-westpac-trading-eurcad

"Large options expiring today "(2012-04-11) Large options expiring today Here are the options expiring today at 2 p.m. GMT. EUR/USD: 1.3025, 1.3080, 1.3100, 1.3145 and 1.3200; GBP/USD: 1.5800, 1.5900; USD/CHF: 0.9140; AUD/USD: 1.0250, 1.0300 and 1.0425 (large); EUR/GBP: 0.8260; AUD/JPY: 83.70; USD/JPY: 81.00 (large), 81.50, 81.65. Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-11/17257-large-options-expiring-today

<p> </p> <div> "Commerzbank: technical levels for EUR/USD "(2012-04-11)</div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div><div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>Commerzbank: technical levels for EUR/USD</div> <div></div> <div> </div> <div>Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that support for EUR/USD lies at $1.3032. If the pair drops below this level, it will decline to $1.2974/54 (February minimum and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the single currency’s advance from January minimums to February maximums) and then to $1.2624.</div> <div> </div> <div>The specialists claim that resistance for euro is found at $1.3207 (55-day MA) and $1.3487 (February maximum).</div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div><div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> Chart. Daily EUR/USD</div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-11/17255-commerzbank-technical-levels-eurusd</div>

"SocGen: trading EUR/USD"(2012-04-11) SocGen: trading EUR/USD Strategists at Societe Generale advise to go short on the EUR/USD, entering the trade at 1.3100 with a stop at 1.3250 and a target of 1.2600. According to analysts, unsuccessful bond auctions in Europe and recent negative U.S. NFP data point to likelihood of another possible round of QE. Before the lackluster reports were out, investors believed QE3 may be beneficial for risky assets. However, now it became clear that the further monetary easing will point at grave problems in the global economy. The risk-off market mode and troubles in Spain and Italy will weigh on the common currency. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-11/17251-societe-generale-trading-recommendations-eurusd

"USD/JPY: upward correction may be coming "(2012-04-11) USD/JPY: upward correction may be coming US dollar keeps trading within downtrend versus Japanese yen sliding from March maximums above 84 yen. USD/JPY has reached the lower line of the price channel and is now likely rebound targeting the upper line of the channel during the next several days. The greenback may get support from strong bids in the 80.50/55 area and October 2011 maximum in the 79.50/55 region. State Street Bank: “It’s a bit too early now for the market to trade on the Bank of Japan's meeting on April 27. But expectations of further easing mean the yen is unlikely to keep rising, beyond the 80 yen mark. But the market will probably start trading on it perhaps next week.” Longer-term outlook Warning from RBS: “There’s an unrealistic expectation of how early central banks will tighten in the world outside Japan. If the market moves to reflect that and we see 2-year yields in the US and the rest of the world come down back toward Japanese levels, the upward pressure on the yen will reemerge.” The 2-year yield spread between US and Japanese bonds widened to 0.20 from 0.08 percentage point in January. RBS thinks USD/JPY may decline to 73 yen by the end of 2012. Chart. H4 USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-11/17249-usdjpy-upward-correction-may-be-coming

"Mizuho: dollar may rise to 105 yen "(2012-04-11) Mizuho: dollar may rise to 105 yen Wednesday, April 11, 2012 - 07:00 According to analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank, the greenback may strengthen to 105 yen over the next couple of years (a highest level since October 2008). On a weekly Ichimoku chart, the USD/JPY rose above the Kumo (3), clamped between the Kijun (2) and Tenkan (1) lines. Mizuho specialists say this pattern means the dollar will strengthen further to 85 yen and then to 105 yen. On a monthly chart, analysts expect the pair to overcome the top of the cloud in two years. Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/1970-01-01/17244-mizuho-dollar-may-rose-105-yen

"RBS: outlook for EUR/GBP "(2012-04-10) RBS: outlook for EUR/GBP According to RBS analysts, the Britain’s economy is moving in a positive direction. The outlook is still not clear-cut, but recent better-than-expected data show that in Q1 the economy of the region is growing. Specialists direct our attention to the bunch of positive PMI data (particularly, service and construction PMIs). Mixed household, public and financial sectors data don’t permit to make a completely favorable long-term forecast, but the GDP seems to have improved in Q1. Stronger growth will help the government to meet the deficit reduction plans. Specialists forecast the EUR/GBP to weaken to 0.8080 level. However, the 'doji' pattern on Friday and the upward movement at the beginning of the week promise a correction to 8280/8315 levels. Strategists recommend going short with a stop loss at 0.8352. The downside targets remain at 0.8223 and 0.8192 levels. Chart. Daily EUR/GBP Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-10/17242-rbs-outlooj-eurgbp

"UBS: trading USD/JPY on the BOJ (2012-04-10) UBS: trading USD/JPY on the BOJ Analysts at UBS believe that the Bank of Japan will deliver the expected easing at its second meeting this month on April 27. The specialists underline that this way Japanese central bank will have time to adjust their policy to what the Federal Reserve comes up with on April 24-25 justifying the policy with an updated Outlook Report. In their view, the BOJ may: - Extend Asset Purchase program from the end of 2012 to June 2013 or longer; - Extend APP by at least another 5 trillion yen, concentrated in government bonds component; - Remove the limit of buying the JGBs via the APP of only those issues with 2 years left to maturity or less; - Raise inflation target from 1% to 2%. How to trade using such assumption: UBS expects USD/JPY to drift down to 80.00/50 and then start rebound after the BoJ meeting on April 27 aiming to 85.00 yen in 3 months (if the Fed’s approach remains unchanged). Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-10/17240-ubs-trading-usdjpy-boj

"RBS: trading GBP/USD"(2012-04-10) RBS: trading GBP/USD Technical analysts at RBS recommend buying British pound versus the greenback at on the dips to $1.5810/35 stopping at $1.5750 and targeting $1.6072. The specialists note that GBP/USD will face strong resistance in the $1.6072/91 (“tweezer top” formed in November 2011). There’s also resistance at the recent highs of $1.5930 and $1.5987. If the forecast doesn’t realize, then the important downside levels lie at $1.5666 and $1.5585. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-10/17239-rbs-trading-gbpusd

"The banks recommend selling euro "(2012-04-10) The banks recommend selling euro Danske Bank: sell EUR/USD at $1.3097, target $1.3004 and stop at $1.3169. Commerzbank: sell EUR/USD at $1.3350, target $1.3025 and lower stops from $1.3415 to $1.3355. The pair has been trading in a very volatile way today. Data from France and Germany wasn’t bad, but Sentix Investor Confidence was disappointing with -14.7 in April from -8.2 in March. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-10/17236-banks-recommend-selling-euro

"Commerzbank: comments on EUR/JPY "(2012-04-10) Commerzbank: comments on EUR/JPY Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the single currency may rebound versus Japanese yen from support in the 105.93/65 area (200-day MA, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of EUR/JPY’s advance in 2012). There’s also an upper border of the Ichimoku Cloud at 106.15 yen. The specialists think that the pair may rise to resistance at 108.07/65 from where it will start suffering from negative pressure. In their view, euro’s sell off may begin at 111.13 (April 2 maximum) and the pair may decline to the lower border of the Cloud at 103.50. http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/April2012/10_04_12/daily_eurjpy.gif Chart. Daily EUR/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-10/17235-commerzbank-comments-eurjpy

"Bank's forecasts for FX majors "(2012-04-10) Bank's forecasts for FX majors Data were submitted on April 5 Source: FX Week

"The outlook for AUD/USD"(2012-04-10) Today’s dynamics On the upside Australian dollar was helped by Bernanke’s comments that American economy is far from a complete recovery which was taken by the market as the sign of more easing coming, especially after payrolls increased less than expected in March. In addition, Chinese data released today has positively surprised the market: the nation posted $5.35-billion trade surplus last month vs. the forecast of $3.15-billion deficit (Bloomberg). There was also a private report which showed that business confidence in Australia rebounded. On the downside Aussie was discouraged (especially against yen) after the Bank of Japan kept the monetary policy unchanged, while the market has been pricing in more easing. Asian stocks fell and Australia’s bonds surged driving the yields to the lowest since February 7. Technical levels The pair AUD/USD keeps trading within downtrend channel aiming to $1.0145 (January 9 minimum). Resistance: $1.0355 (today’s maximum) and $1.0462 (April 3 maximum). Support: $1.0043 (December 29 minimum) and 0.9865 (December 15 minimum). Data to watch Barclays Capital: - Australian employment data (April 12): Barclays’ forecast is employment change of 0K and unemployment rate of 5.3%. Any sign of weakness in labor market would likely add to the concerns about domestic economy and additional AUD negative. - Australian CPI figures (April 23). The RBA opened the door for further easing at next meeting in May and the data releases mentioned above will determine the central bank’s decision. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-10/17226-outlook-audusd

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"EUR/USD: prospects remain unclear"(2012-04-09) On Monday, April 9, activity on the European markets remains weak due to Easter holidays in Germany, France, Switzerland, Italy and Great Britain. Given the rising Spanish bonds yield and increasing uncertainty about the country’s prospects, the future of the euro doesn't look bright. On the other hand, data on U.S. labor market, released on Friday, also seems to be negative (non-farm payrolls rose by 120K versus the expected 207K). However, most analysts believe the U.S. labor market data won’t have a significant effect on the market. BNP Paribas: The NFP data are quite comforting, since the cuts that occurred in March are very likely to be reversed afterwards. SunbirdFX: The euro may strengthen from the $1.300 strong support level to $1.315 or break the Head & Shoulders pattern lying above the support and slide to $1.280. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-09/17220-eurusd-prospects-remain-unclear

"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2012-04-09) Weekly GBP/USD British pound tested the levels above the Ichimoku Cloud last week, but then drifted lower and closed below Kumo. At the same time, the pair managed to find support at Tenkan-sen (1), so the bulls haven’t lost all chances to turn the situation in the short term to their benefit. The pair also has some support of the uptrend line connecting January and March minimums. However, the Turning line stopped moving up and switched to the horizontal mode following Kijun-sen (2) and pointing at sideways trend. Kumo isn’t wide, but still bearish (3). We are looking forward to consolidation in the coming weeks. The ability of the bulls to bring the prices above the Cloud will be decisive for the future dynamics of GBP/USD. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD On the daily chart the prices breached the Turning line (1), but were supported by the Standard line (2) and the upper border of the rising Ichimoku Cloud. On the one hand, the situation looks stable: Tenkan and Kijun have so far formed “golden cross” which should be strong enough as the lines intersected above Kumo. On the other hand, Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen became horizontal and the Cloud has dangerously narrowed. On the downside, if GBP/USD breaches support of the Kijun and enters the Cloud, it will likely slide to the bottom of Kumo. On the upside, if after a few days of consolidation sterling manages to rise above Tenkan, it will get chance to strengthen to the maximums of the early April. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-09/17216-ichimoku-weekly-forecast-gbpusd

"Saxo Bank: comments on euro, yen and franc"(2012-04-09) Analysts at Saxo Bank in London note that as the market’s focus shifts to Spain, the European Central Bank will face a lot of difficulties in the coming months. The specialists claim that for now the ECB did well to contain spikes in peripheral sovereign yields through its long-term refinancing operations (LTROs) in December 2011 and February this year. However, Saxo Bank warns that if the concerns about Spain keep mounting, it will be very hard for the ECB to calm the market alone: more political co-ordination will be needed. According to Saxo, French elections and new leadership will drive EUR/USD up, though the pair won’t be able to rise above $1.35/1.36, so a reversal downwards in this area’s expected. As for Japanese yen, the analysts say that yen’s decline “in the next few months, this yen move will be overshot, and we will see a bit of a consolidation in these carry trades, which will mean the yen consolidates robustly against several of these currencies.” Speaking about Swiss franc’s prospects, the economists say that the Swiss National bank is unlikely to raise EUR/CHF floor from 1.20 until the third quarter or even later. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-09/17215-saxo-bank-comments-euro-yen-and-franc

"USD/JPY down on U.S. jobs figures"(2012-04-09) The greenback touched a one-month low versus the yen on Monday on the back of last week's lower-than-expected U.S. labor market figures. Investors are worried that the Fed may need more monetary stimulus to support the economy. In March non-farm payrolls rose by 120K versus 240K in February and far lower-than-forecasted 207K, demonstrating the smallest increase since October. The unemployment rate decreased slightly to 8.2% from 8.3%. Commonwealth Foreign Exchange: The question for the dollar is whether this is as viewed as an outlier in an otherwise improving trend in labor markets, or if it's viewed as enough to revive talk of another round of QE. At the very least it will keep the door open to additional policy easing, more so than before the number was released. Japan, however, showed the first current account surplus in two months in February (1.178 trillion yen, down 30.7% from a year earlier, but stronger, than forecasted). Exports stopped contracting thanks to robust demand in the U.S. and Southeast Asia. Early Monday the USD/JPY dropped as low as 81.19 yen on its lowest level since the beginning of March. The support for the dollar lies at 81.07 yen (a 38.2% retracement of its rally in Feb.-March), 80.59 yen (March 6 minimum), 80.25 yen (Feb.29 minimum) and 80.01 yen (Feb.28 minimum). The resistance levels for the pair are 82.56 yen (Apr.6 maximum), 82.88 yen (21-day MA) and the 82.99 (Apr.3 maximum). Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-09/17214-usdjpy-down-us-jobs-figures

"Ifr Markets: option expiration for today"(2012-04-09) Analysts at Ifr Markets, key analytical data provider, claim that today the following options expire: EUR/USD: $1.3400, $1.3225, $1.3300, $1.3500, $1.3315. USD/JPY: 82.25, 84.00 83.15, 83.00. EUR/JPY: 108.00. AUD/JPY: 83.75. AUD/USD: $1.0200, $1.0300. Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Photo REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-09/17213-ifr-markets-option-expiration-today