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"USD/JPY: any trade ahead of the BOJ? "(2012-04-26) USD/JPY: any trade ahead of the BOJ? Thursday, April 26, 2012 - 07:00 The greenback’s trading on the downside versus Japanese yen today as lower USD/CNY made traders selling US dollar versus all of its Asian peers. In addition, USD/JPY also got under pressure due to the corporate flows ahead of the period of Japanese national holidays known as the Golden Week (Japanese Golden Week in 2012 is based on two separate holidays of 3 and 4 days. The first is from Saturday, April 28 through to Monday, April 30 and then Thursday, May 3 through to Sunday, May 6). At the same time, the moves of the pair seem to be limited as the market awaits tomorrow’s decision of the Bank of Japan. Investors expect more easing from the BOJ. If the central bank does more QE, that should be negative for the yen. If it doesn’t – well, it better be ready to the renewed strength of its national currency, it’s as simple as that. From the technical point of view, note yesterday’s doji candle on the daily chart. If US currency breaks above the short-term trend resistance line, one may go long. If it doesn’t, then USD/JPY may slide to the lower border of the channel in 80 yen area, though the potential decline will be limited by the hopes about the BOJ. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-26/17465-usdjpy-any-trade-ahead-boj

Forex success secrets are revealed!!! Dear traders! On the 13th April your favorite demo-contest was over. Hundreds of traders from all over the world were taking part in the month race for the leadership. The winners were finally announced: Usmonov Bahtiyor from Uzbekistan, Sumarsanto Athanasius from Indonesia and Puzina Pavel from Ukraine. We asked our happy contestants to share their impressions about 999 contest participation and reveal their Forex success secrets. >>Usmonov Bahtiyor 1st prize (555 USD)<< Q: How long are you engaged in trading? How has it turned out that you have got acquainted with exchange trading? A: I’ve been trading Forex for 6 years. How did I get involved in it? Well, I set myself a goal. And while looking for some ways to achieve this goal I decide to know more about Forex trading. Q: What currency pair do you prefer to trade? Why? A: Generally I trade EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD. My trading strategy is mostly based on Fibonacci levels determination. 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A: A: A: My trading strategy is very simple, based on couple of standard indicators. Q: What qualities should a trader possess to be successful in trading? A:A trader should be hard-working, have a stable nervous system and not succumb to emotions. Q: What advice could you give to beginners? There is no need for a beginner to cover all the market movement. You should be patient. You need time to gain valuable trading experience. Learn, do your best and you’ll succeed. Please note that you still have a chance to take part our super demo-contest 999. Registration is open until April 30. Contest details: http://www.fbs.com/999-demo-contest Take part: https://my.fbs.com/contests/999 FBS wishes you Finance,Freedom and Success in trading! (Best mini Forex Broker of 2010 - 2011) Stay connected with FBS because its all about you!

"USD/CHF: technical comments"(2012-04-25) USD/CHF: technical comments Wednesday, April 25, 2012 - 10:30 The greenback keeps trading within short-term downtrend versus its Swiss counterpart. Ichimoku H4 chart hints at bearish outlook (Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen are declining with the former lying above the latter). As a result, USD/CHF may decline to 0.9050, the lower line of the triangle formation. There may be some support for the pair in the 0.9080/70 zone (trend line supports, maximums of late March, early April). Chart. H4 USD/CHF If the pair breaks below psychological level of 0.9000, the decline from 0.9594 (January 9 maximum) will likely resume and US dollar may slide to 0.8628 (38.2% retracement of the advance made in the second half of 2011). If USD/CHF overcomes 0.9251 (April 16 maximum), the decline from 0.9594 may be considered over and the pair will get chance to return to this level. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-25/17460-usdchf-technical-comments

"USD/CAD: technical updates "(2012-04-25) USD/CAD: technical updates Wednesday, April 25, 2012 - 09:45 US dollar keeps losing versus its Canadian counterpart. USD/CAD approached the lower border of the range between 0.9840 and 1.0050 within which it has been trading since the end of January. The pair has tested today the levels below 0.9864 (April 17 minimum). If this support fails to contain the bearish pressure, US dollar will be heading down to 0.9800. Analysts at RBS think that USD/CAD’s fair value is situated at 0.93. However, for now American currency returned closely to the opening level, so we see something close to doji on the daily chart. Analysts at Commerzbank say that if USD/CAD closes today below 0.9842, it will become vulnerable for a slide to 0.9786 (minimum of the middle of September) and then to 0.9726 (end of August low). For the outlook to improve US currency should go above 1.0052. It’s better to wait for the pair’s advance above this week's high of 0.9980 to start thinking about longs. The Bank of Canada’s Governor Mark Carney said yesterday that “some modest removal of monetary stimulus may become appropriate; interest rates are exceptionally low, won't always be the case”. Such comments make investors expect the central bank to take a more hawkish approach and start removing stimulus which is positive for CAD. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-25/17459-usdcad-technical-updates

"GBP/USD down on UK recession"(2012-04-25) GBP/USD down on UK recession Wednesday, April 25, 2012 - 09:15 The Great-Britain has slid into a double-dip recession according to today’s GDP data release. The preliminary GDP in Q1 unexpectedly shrank 0.2% vs. a 0.1% gain expected and a 0.3% contraction in Q4. In the same tone, index of services also missed the expectations, rising 0.2% in Feb. vs. a 0.6% growth estimated. “Abandoning deficit reduction measures would only make UK situation worse. Conditions are very tough and recovery is taking longer than had been envisaged”, George Osbourne said. The Public Sector Net Borrowing, released yesterday, grew to 15.9 billion pounds in March vs. a 15.0 billion forecast and 9.9 billion in February. However, the U.K. inflation surprisingly accelerated in March for the first time in six months. The GBP/USD cross fell on GDP data to $1.6086. The sterling had been rising for 8 consecutive days and reached $1.6163, the highest since Nov. 2011. The sterling also weakens against its other counterparts. Analysts at Goldman Sachs recommend selling EUR/GBP at current levels with a stop at 0.8250 and targeting at 0.8150. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-25/17457-gbpusd-down-uk-recession

"Westpac: bearish on euro in the medium term"(2012-04-25) Westpac: bearish on euro in the medium term Wednesday, April 25, 2012 - 08:15 Analysts at Westpac Bank believe that the elections turmoil in the Netherlands, France and Greece will make the single currency breach its trading range to the downside and make it start to “unravel quietly, certainly through the first week of May.” According to the bank, the current band EUR/USD is trapped in is “almost frustrating”. The specialists say that it seems that “here is a barrier, some sort of physical option structure in the market that's limiting downside through the $1.30 level.” However, euro shorts will mount and once the bears push the pair down through $1.31 and $1.30, downside momentum for EUR/USD will significantly increase. Westpac says that the possibility of euro’s slide to the levels around $1.25 in the second quarter is rather strong. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-25/17455-westpac-bearish-euro-medium-term

"What's new for GBP crosses? "(2012-04-25) What's new for GBP crosses? Wednesday, April 25, 2012 - 08:00 The British pound strengthened to a six-month high vs. the greenback before a release of GDP data on Wednesday. According to Bloomberg survey, the preliminary GDP in Q1 gained 0.1% after shrinking 0.3% in Q4. The British economy is expected to avoid recession, reducing concerns that the additional monetary easing will be needed. Moreover, the “dovish” MPC member Adam Posen stopped standing up for a new round of QE. The U.K. inflation unexpectedly accelerated in March for the first time in six months. Some specialists believe the BoE may stop its 325 billion pound QE program on May, 10. GBP/USD keeps strengthening for 8 consecutive days. Today the pair trades in the $1.6159 area, facing a strong resistance at this level (a 61.8% retracement of Apr. 2011 – Jan. 2012 decline). The EUR/GBP pair bounced away from the 19-month low at 0.8142 pounds that the cross reached yesterday. Mario Draghi’s speech pushes the common currency up. According to analysts at Barclays Capital, EUR/GBP will decline to 0.7600 pounds in a year. They recommend selling the cross at 0.8190 pounds, targeting at 0.7800 and with a stop at 0.8270. Chart. Daily EUR/GBP Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-25/17454-analysts-outlook-gbpusd

"Bank of America: outlook for USD/JPY "(2012-04-25) Bank of America: outlook for USD/JPY Wednesday, April 25, 2012 - 06:15 According to analysts at Bank of America, the greenback will soon resume a bullish trend against the yen after a recent correction. USD/JPY declined 4% since Mid-March before gaining 1% since April 16. In their view, the cross may go up to ¥ 84.82 or ¥ 85.45 after demonstrating ability to leap from a ¥80.28 low. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-25/17450-bank-america-outlook-usdjpy

USD/CAD: economic news, technical comments USD/CAD: economic news, technical comments Tuesday, April 24, 2012 - 13:45 Canadian retail sales came worse than expected declining by 0.2% (m/m) in February, while the forecast was for the indicator to remain unchanged. Core retail sales rose 0.5% vs. +0.4% forecasted and up from January’s -0.8%. The pair USD/CAD initially rose on the news, but then began retracing down the gains as Case-Shiller HPI which in is measuring change in the selling price of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas also turned out to be quite disappointing: the index contracted in February by 3.5% (y/y). The greenback will gain positive momentum if it manages to rise above 0.9921/23 (100-hour MA and 38.2% Fibo retracement of the decline from yesterday’s high). Support lies at 0.9886 (today’s minimum), 0.9879 (April 19 minimum) and 0.9864 (April 17 minimum). All in all, USD/CAD is still in range between 0.9840 and 1.0050 within which it has been trading since the end of January. There’s a chance that the pair will retest the bottom of the range (on the daily chart it’s pressed by the bearish Ichimoku Cloud), but it will likely soon start drifting to the upper border of the band. Of course, US currency should close the week above 0.9850. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-24/17444-usdcad-economic-news-technical-comments

"EUR/USD: little reaction to debt auctions"(2012-04-24) EUR/USD: little reaction to debt auctions Tuesday, April 24, 2012 - 11:00 Although the market had been eyeing results of the European bond auctions, we didn’t see much of a reaction to their results. Spain sold 1.93 billion euro of 3- and 6-month bills. The yield on 3-month bills rose from 0.381% to 0.634%. At the same time, demand exceeded supply 7.6 times versus a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.5 in March. The 6-month yield rose from 0.84% to 1.58%, while the bid-to-cover fell from 5.6 to 3.3. The Netherlands – one of the few European economies still rated AAA – sold 1.995 billion euro of 2- and 25-year government bonds, roughly in the middle of its target range, a day after Prime Minister Mark Rutte resigned in a crisis over budget cuts. EUR/USD is little changed on the day. Resistance lies in the $1.3200/23 area. The pair remains trapped between 50-day MA on the upside and 100-day MA on the downside. Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi: “There has been more chat about the resilience of the euro that's spooking some people out of playing it lower over the short-term, but there are some very significant risks ahead. As we move into May and June we could see further volatility and turmoil which we think will see the euro break below $1.30.” Nomura Securities: “We expect euro/dollar to resume a weakening trend in coming weeks, with a break of $1.30 opening up a trading target of $1.25 within a 2-3 month horizon.” Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-24/17442-eurusd-little-reaction-debt-auctions

"Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD"(2012-04-24) Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD Tuesday, April 24, 2012 - 10:15 British pound is strengthening versus the greenback for the 7th day in a row. It rose from $1.5820 to today’s maximum in the $1.6157 area. The bulls got even more active after the release of UK public sector net borrowing which rose from 9.9 billion pounds in February to 15.9 billion in March. The nation’s net debt reaches 66% of GDP, the highest level since the records began. Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that GBP/USD is facing resistance at $1.6165 (October 2011 maximum and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline in 2011 and 2012). In their view, sterling will recoil down from this level to support at $1.5984, $1.5874 and $1.5843 (200-day MA). If the pair managed to rise above $1.6167, it will head to $1.6425 (78.6% retracement of the move mentioned above). Chart. Daily GBP/USD[/url] Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-24/17441-commerzbank-comments-gbpusd

"Deutsche Bank: FX trade becomes more volatile"(2012-04-24) Deutsche Bank: FX trade becomes more volatile Tuesday, April 24, 2012 - 10:00 According to analysts at Deutsche bank, the trade on the FX market will soon become more volatile: the time of the range-bound markets is coming to an end. Lately, currency crosses have been trading sideways despite the considerable political and economic changes. However, as history confirms, such range-bound trading periods usually don’t last long. According to Deutsche bank strategists, central banks prepare to intervene into the game (for example, Bank of Canada seems to become more hawkish, while Reserve Bank of Australia – dovish). Emerging markets will also follow a pattern: summer months tend to bring above-average return on investments. Currency strategists recommend going short on the euro, the greenback and the yen vs. the sterling, the loonie and the emerging currencies, such as Mexican peso, South Korean won and South African rand. Image from http://crownforex.blogspot.com/ Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-24/17436-deutsche-bank-fx-trade-becomes-more-volatile

"John Taylor: outlook for USD, EUR and JPY"(2012-04-24) John Taylor: outlook for USD, EUR and JPY Tuesday, April 24, 2012 - 08:15 John Taylor, the head of currency hedge fund FX Concepts, expect US dollar to strengthen versus the single currency in the second quarter. The specialist says that “Europe’s going to be in a recession and they’re going to have to print more money and be looser, and the U.S. is going to have a stronger economy than them by quite a bit.” As for USD/JPY, Taylor thinks that the pair may weaken in the next 2-3 months as prospects for further easing from the Federal Reserve damp investor demand for the greenback: “If we do have a crisis in Europe and a little recession scare in the U.S., that might drive money back to the yen and it’ll be stronger for a couple of months before it weakens”. According to Taylor, if the Fed increased stimulus in the second half of the year, the greenback would also drop against euro. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-24/17432-yens-strengthening-safe-haven

"Yen’s strengthening as a safe haven"(2012-04-24) Yen’s strengthening as a safe haven Tuesday, April 24, 2012 - 07:45 US dollar has been declining versus Japanese yen since the beginning of this week on the concerns about the battle for leadership in France and the Netherlands and its potential negative impact on the efforts to resolve the region’s debt crisis. Analysts at Rochford Capital don’t think that yen’s safe-haven status will be steadily undermined because of the Bank of Japan’s very loose monetary policy (the BOJ is expected to announce more QE on Friday after expanding bond purchases by 10 trillion yen ($123.6 billion) and set ting a 1 percent inflation goal). This week we’ll here from the United States first: the Fed will announce tomorrow the results of 2-day FOMC meeting (monetary policy statement, projections for growth, unemployment and inflation). Strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch see risks that economic and rate forecasts will be considered hawkish that is positive for the greenback. USD/JPY tested today 4-day minimum of 80.85. IFR Markets: “Despite the push down, Tokyo players still look to be better buyers on dips, especially sub-81.00. Granted, more stops loom below, especially sub-80.80 but a move to this level could be onerous barring more legs down in the JPY crosses.” Support levels are at 80.60 and 80.30 yen. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-24/17432-yens-strengthening-safe-haven

April 24: important economic releases Tuesday, April 24, 2012 - 07:30 At the beginning of today’s trade all eyes were for Australia: the nation’s annual inflation was at 1.6% in Q1. This is the slowest pace of CPI growth since 2009. Aussie declined versus the greenback as the market strengthened in thought that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut its benchmark rate on Tuesday, May 1. On April 3 central bank Governor Glenn Stevens signaled he may end a 3-month pause in interest-rate cuts as soon as next month if weaker-than-forecast growth slows inflation. Data to watch today: • Great Britain: Public Sector Net Borrowing in March is forecasted to show£15.6 billion budget deficit vs. £12.9 billion deficit in February. • Canada: Canada’s Core Retail Sales in February are expected to increase by 0.8%. In January the report reflected a 0.5% decline. The BoC Governor Mark Carney in his speech may give a hint on a more hawkish monetary policy: the central bank could raise interest rates from a record 1% low sooner than expected. • U.S.: The current expectations are that the April Consumer Confidence index may reach 70.1. New Home Sales in March may increase by 321K vs. 313K in February. However, if the number of new home sales will fall, it may further indicate a slowdown in the U.S real estate market. U.S. 2-year notes auction is scheduled. • Euro zone: Spanish 3- and 6-month T-bill auction; Italian bond (CTZ, BTPei) auction. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/1970-01-01/17430-april-24-important-economic-releases

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"RBS: comments on GBP/USD"(2012-04-23) RBS: comments on GBP/USD Monday, April 23, 2012 - 13:30 Analysts at RBS claim that there’s less upside for GBP/USD as Britain and the United States have very similar economies and the relative out-performance of the US economy may push GBP/USD lower over the short-term. At the same time, the specialists don’t see the potential for significant declines as the Federal Reserve is still a long way from raising interest rates. In addition, there will be more concerns about US fiscal policy later this year and into 2013. “The policy mix suggests that most of any GBP/USD declines that are seen over the coming months are likely to be given back into 2013,” the bank says. There’s significant resistance at $1.6167 (2011 maximum), while support is found at $1.5800/5900. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-23/17427-rbs-comments-gbpusd

"Netherlands' budget debate: to cut or not to cut?"(2012-04-23) Netherlands' budget debate: to cut or not to cut? Monday, April 23, 2012 - 12:30 The tensions in Europe keep mounting: now we've got negative news from the Netherlands. The nation's political authorities didn’t manage to come to an agreement on budget cuts, making elections almost unavoidable. Diederik Samsom, head of the Labour Party, said that the elections will take place in September- October 2012. Centre-right Prime Minister Mark Rutte said on Saturday the negotiations broke down because Geert Wilders, the leader of the Party for Freedom, refused to agree to 14-16 billion euros of budget cuts indispensable to eliminate the excessive budget deficit. Wilders is strongly against the budget cuts in welfare, health and unemployment benefits. The negotiations between the political parties started after the Dutch economy entered the recession this year. According to forecasts, by the end of 2012 the Dutch budget deficit will increase to 4.6% compared with the 3.0% ceiling set by the ECB. The uncertainty over budget cuts and reforms, and the time it takes to organise elections, may lead to higher interest rates and higher yields on Dutch government bonds. If the Netherlands does not cut spending, it is likely to lose its coveted triple-A credit rating, leading to higher borrowing costs. The country may step into a lingering political crisis, hindering the euro zone’s economic rebound. On Monday Dutch government holds an emergency meeting. Chart. Dutch 10-year bond yields Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-23/17423-netherlands-budget-debate-cut-or-not-cut

"Waiting for the BOJ: USD/JPY prospects"(2012-04-23) Waiting for the BOJ: USD/JPY prospects Monday, April 23, 2012 - 12:00 Economists are almost sure that the Bank of Japan will deliver additional monetary stimulus at its meeting on April 27. Morgan Stanley: there’s “near 100% probability” of more easing this month. JPMorgan Chase: “Expectations that the BOJ will ease policy further at this week’s meeting may keep the yen weaker over the next few days. We expect the central bank to add 5 trillion yen to purchases of long-term government bonds.” Mizuho Securities and SMBC Nikko Securities: there will be more easing. CMC Markets: the recent rally in USD/JPY will continue for the rest of the year as a result of the Federal Reserve's current policy to avoid further monetary easing. “There is a very good correlation between 10-year US bond yields and USD/JPY, because when yields go up, the dollar goes up. With the Fed deciding not to continue with QE for the time being, QE will only happen if the US economy starts to fall off a cliff.” UBS: “While yen bears welcome an expansion of the BoJ's regular outright JGB buying operations or a doubling of the inflation goal to 2%, the most the BoJ may be willing to concede at this juncture would be a 10 trillion yen increase in the APP. The gradual Fed-BoJ policy divergence should serve to keep risks tilted towards a move higher towards 85 USD/JPY on a 3-month horizon. While the Fed will be in no rush to categorically rule out QE3, we maintain the case for further easing is less convincing in the US than Japan.” BNP Paribas: “A modest increase in the asset purchase target being announced next Friday, in the order of 5 trillion yen, looks to be discounted. As such, more than this may be required to see the USD/JPY rally extend. That said, any decision to increase the maturity of JGBs purchases beyond the current 1-2 years could also help support USDJPY.” Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-23/17420-waiting-boj-usdjpy-prospects

"Key options expiring today"(2012-04-23) Key options expiring today Monday, April 23, 2012 - 11:45 Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2900, $1.3100, $1.3200; GBP/USD: $1.5910, $1.6000, $1.6200; EUR/GBP: 0.8175, 0.8200; USD/JPY: 80.00 (large) 81.00, 81.50 and 82.15 EUR/JPY: 105.00 (large) and 106.00; AUD/USD: $1.0300, $1.0400. Image from onlineforextradingblog.com Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-23/17418-key-options-expiring-today

"Banks' forecasts for FX majors"(2012-04-23) Banks' forecasts for FX majors Monday, April 23, 2012 - 11:15 Data was submitted on April 20 Source: FX Week Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-23/17416-banks-forecasts-fx-majors

"CFTC trader positioning data"(2012-04-23) CFTC trader positioning data Monday, April 23, 2012 - 09:00 The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that: • Net euro shorts rose from 101K to 118K; • Net sterling shorts down from 19K to 13K; • Net yen shorts down from 66K to 58K; • Net Swiss franc shorts up from 10K to 14K; • Net loonie longs up from 28K to 38K; • Net Aussie longs up from 39K to 48K; • Net kiwi longs up from 7K to 12K; • Net US dollar longs down by 4% to $21.65 billion. Investors continued to make big bets that the single currency, Japanese yen and Swiss franc would weaken against their US counterpart. Commodity currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars continued to be favored versus US dollar. Speculative investors slightly pared their anti-yen bets a little more than a week before the Bank of Japan's upcoming meeting. Anti-yen fervor increased steadily in recent weeks on rising expectations the BOJ would announce new easing measures on April 27. It’s necessary to note that the figures cited above are always a week old at the time of their release. Never the less, CFTC data gives a good oversight into how the market is positioned and if/how these positions are being unwound. Although the CME speculators represent a small fraction of trading in the currency markets, their trades are widely seen as typical of hedge fund investors' currency movements. Picture from regulatorycomplianceblog.com Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-23/17413-cftc-trader-positioning-data

"April 23-27: events to watch"(2012-04-23) April 23-27: events to watch Monday, April 23, 2012 - 08:30 Tuesday, April 24: • Japan: 20-year JGB auction • Australia: The Q1 CPI is expected to rise by 0.8% vs. 0.0% in Q4. According to UBS analysts, the CPI data will be close enough to RBA’s forecasts to allow the central bank to trim rates by 25 bps from the current 4.25%. • Canada: Canada’s Core Retail Sales in February are expected to increase by 0.8%. In January the report reflected a 0.5% decline. The BoC Governor Mark Carney in his speech may give a hint on a more hawkish monetary policy: the central bank could raise interest rates from a record 1% low sooner than expected. • Great Britain: Public Sector Net Borrowing in March is forecasted to show£15.6 billion budget deficit vs. £12.9 billion deficit in February. • U.S.: The current expectations are that the April Consumer Confidence index may reach 70.1. New Home Sales in March may increase by 321K vs. 313K in February. However, if the number of new home sales will fall, it may further indicate a slowdown in the U.S real estate market. U.S. 2-year notes auction is scheduled. • Switzerland: The trade surplus in March is forecasted to decline to 1.99 billion Swiss francs vs. 2.68 billion surplus in February. • Euro zone: Spanish 3- and 6-month T-bill auction; Italian bond (CTZ, BTPei) auction. Wednesday, April 25: • Great Britain: The Preliminary Q1 GDP is expected to grow by 0.1%. In the Q4 2011, the GDP contracted by 0.3%. • U.S.: A bunch of important data is expected. The Federal Open Market Committee will hand down its monetary policy decision. Members have been slightly more positive on the economic outlook; however, it is still very much in the realm of “cautious optimism”. Any discussion about the prospect of more QE will be important. Core Durable Goods Orders (the de-facto gauge of business investment) are expected to increase by 0.6% in March vs. 1.8% rise in February. 5-year notes auction is scheduled. • Euro zone: Allotment of ECB three-month long-term refinancing operation. Following the April ECB rate decision in which the rate wasn’t changed at 1% Mario Draghi will speak and may refer to ECB’s plan to calm the markets including implementing LTRO 3 or resuming the SMP. According to UBS analysts, in order to lower the fears circling the euro zone debt situation, ECB's officials are speaking about the likeliness of new SMP. However, Germany is strongly against such a measure or another LTRO, so the ECB may use the strategy of cutting the interest rates. In general, the UBS analysts expect the ECB to remain more dovish than the Fed in 2012. Thursday, April 26: • Canada: The BoC Governor Mark Carney speaks. • New Zealand: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on April, 26. Last month, the RNBZ Governor Alan Bollard forecasted the cash rate to remain unchanged at 2.50% for much of 2012. However, there may be a dovish slant to the statement. The deterioration of Australia's terms of trade is suggestive of New Zealand, especially given the recent sharp drop in milk prices. • U.S.: Unemployment Claims are forecasted to increase by 378K this week vs. 386K the previous week. U.S. Pending Home Sales in March may increase by 1.4% vs. a 0.5% decline in February. 7-year note auction is scheduled. • Euro zone: Italian T-bill auction. • Japan: 2-year JGB auction. Friday, April 27: • Japan: The Bank of Japan is seen as likely to ease its policy further at a meeting on April 27 after coming under intense pressure to help support the still fragile economy. There are widespread expectations that it increases its asset purchase fund by 5 trillion yen to 24 trillion yen. The Overnight Call Rate is expected to remain at 0.10%. The annualized Retail Sales in March may increase by 11.5% vs. 3.4% in February. • U.S.: The U.S. reports its preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP. Aided by government outlays (military spending and less drag from state and local governments) and strong capital spending, the GDP likely to expand by 2.6% vs. a 3.0% in Q4. • Euro zone: Italian bond (BTP) auction is scheduled. The KOF Economic Barometer, the outlook of the Swiss economy, in April may grow to 0.26 vs. previous 0.08. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/1970-01-01/17411-april-23-27-events-watch

"April 23-27: events to watch"(2012-04-23) April 23-27: events to watch Monday, April 23, 2012 - 08:30 Tuesday, April 24: • Japan: 20-year JGB auction • Australia: The Q1 CPI is expected to rise by 0.8% vs. 0.0% in Q4. According to UBS analysts, the CPI data will be close enough to RBA’s forecasts to allow the central bank to trim rates by 25 bps from the current 4.25%. • Canada: Canada’s Core Retail Sales in February are expected to increase by 0.8%. In January the report reflected a 0.5% decline. The BoC Governor Mark Carney in his speech may give a hint on a more hawkish monetary policy: the central bank could raise interest rates from a record 1% low sooner than expected. • Great Britain: Public Sector Net Borrowing in March is forecasted to show£15.6 billion budget deficit vs. £12.9 billion deficit in February. • U.S.: The current expectations are that the April Consumer Confidence index may reach 70.1. New Home Sales in March may increase by 321K vs. 313K in February. However, if the number of new home sales will fall, it may further indicate a slowdown in the U.S real estate market. U.S. 2-year notes auction is scheduled. • Switzerland: The trade surplus in March is forecasted to decline to 1.99 billion Swiss francs vs. 2.68 billion surplus in February. • Euro zone: Spanish 3- and 6-month T-bill auction; Italian bond (CTZ, BTPei) auction. Wednesday, April 25: • Great Britain: The Preliminary Q1 GDP is expected to grow by 0.1%. In the Q4 2011, the GDP contracted by 0.3%. • U.S.: A bunch of important data is expected. The Federal Open Market Committee will hand down its monetary policy decision. Members have been slightly more positive on the economic outlook; however, it is still very much in the realm of “cautious optimism”. Any discussion about the prospect of more QE will be important. Core Durable Goods Orders (the de-facto gauge of business investment) are expected to increase by 0.6% in March vs. 1.8% rise in February. 5-year notes auction is scheduled. • Euro zone: Allotment of ECB three-month long-term refinancing operation. Following the April ECB rate decision in which the rate wasn’t changed at 1% Mario Draghi will speak and may refer to ECB’s plan to calm the markets including implementing LTRO 3 or resuming the SMP. According to UBS analysts, in order to lower the fears circling the euro zone debt situation, ECB's officials are speaking about the likeliness of new SMP. However, Germany is strongly against such a measure or another LTRO, so the ECB may use the strategy of cutting the interest rates. In general, the UBS analysts expect the ECB to remain more dovish than the Fed in 2012. Thursday, April 26: • Canada: The BoC Governor Mark Carney speaks. • New Zealand: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on April, 26. Last month, the RNBZ Governor Alan Bollard forecasted the cash rate to remain unchanged at 2.50% for much of 2012. However, there may be a dovish slant to the statement. The deterioration of Australia's terms of trade is suggestive of New Zealand, especially given the recent sharp drop in milk prices. • U.S.: Unemployment Claims are forecasted to increase by 378K this week vs. 386K the previous week. U.S. Pending Home Sales in March may increase by 1.4% vs. a 0.5% decline in February. 7-year note auction is scheduled. • Euro zone: Italian T-bill auction. • Japan: 2-year JGB auction. Friday, April 27: • Japan: The Bank of Japan is seen as likely to ease its policy further at a meeting on April 27 after coming under intense pressure to help support the still fragile economy. There are widespread expectations that it increases its asset purchase fund by 5 trillion yen to 24 trillion yen. The Overnight Call Rate is expected to remain at 0.10%. The annualized Retail Sales in March may increase by 11.5% vs. 3.4% in February. • U.S.: The U.S. reports its preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP. Aided by government outlays (military spending and less drag from state and local governments) and strong capital spending, the GDP likely to expand by 2.6% vs. a 3.0% in Q4. • Euro zone: Italian bond (BTP) auction is scheduled. The KOF Economic Barometer, the outlook of the Swiss economy, in April may grow to 0.26 vs. previous 0.08. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/1970-01-01/17411-april-23-27-events-watch

"NZD: Key’s comments, technical levels"(2012-04-23) NZD: Key’s comments, technical levels Monday, April 23, 2012 - 07:45 New Zealand’s Prime Minister John Key claimed that though the national currency’s overvalued, he wouldn't support the Reserve Bank of New Zealand intervening in the currency market. According to Key, government was doing what it can to support monetary policy by running a tight fiscal policy which removes pressure from the central bank. “Dreaming that we can somehow get the exchange rate down through intervention is la la land stuff,” said the official. From the fundamental point, kiwi may decline this week as the RBNZ is expected to keep official cash rate at the record minimum of 2.5% on Thursday. In addition, being a risk-sensitive currency New Zealand’s dollar may be affected by the renewed concerns about euro zone’s future. NZD/USD is trading today on the downside remaining in range between $0.8060 and $0.8320 within which it’s trading since the beginning of March. HSBC China PMI Index for April rose to a 2-month maximum at 49.1, though the reading below 50 still indicates contraction of the industry. Support for the pair lies at $0.8117 (March 29 minimum), $0.8091 (200-day MA), $0.8062/58 (March 15, 22 minimums), $0.8050 (38.2% Fibo retracement of the advance from November to February). Resistance is situated at $0.8198 (April 19 maximum), $0.8234/50 (April 17, 16 maximums), $0.8265 (April 3 maximum) and $0.8280/88 (April 12, March 19 maximums). Chart. Daily NZD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-04-23/17409-nzd-keys-comments-technical-levels