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"Key options expiring today"(2012-06-06) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2350, $1.2400, $1.2425, $1.2450 (large), $1.2500, $1.2650, $1.2670; AUD/USD: $0.9600, $0.9750, $0.9800; USD/JPY: 78.25, 78.50, 80.00, 80.80; EUR/JPY: 98.00; EUR/GBP: 0.8060, 0.8110. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-06/17898-key-options-expiring-today

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"SocGen: forex majors in the short-term "(2012-06-05) SocGen: forex majors in the short-term -EUR/USD: there are offers at 1.2540/50. Focus on G7 meeting and ISM non-manufacturing PMI ahead of the ECB meeting on Wednesday. Sell EUR/USD on rallies. -GBP/USD: UK markets still closed for the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee holidays, so sterling will remain driven by external forces today ahead of Thursday's Bank of England’s meeting. -USD/JPY and EUR/JPY may get lower after G7 meeting. -AUD/USD: although Aussie didn’t suffer from the Reserve bank of Australia’s rate cut as some investors feared that the central bank may reduce the borrowing costs more, the dovish RBA statement may make the pair revisit its recent minimums in the 0.9600 area after the G7 meeting. -USD/CAD: the Bank of Canada will likely leave the benchmark rate unchanged at 1.0%. This may provide support for loonie for some time. Image from andlestickcourse.blogspot.com[/url] Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-05/17888-socgen-forex-majors-short-term

"USD/JPY remains under pressure "(2012-06-05) USD/JPY remains under pressure There's a talk that Japan conducted stealth intervention on June 1 to weaken the national currency and support the pair USD/JPY which spiked below 78 yen hitting fresh 4-month low at 77.64 yen. Analysts at Totan Research, however, don’t think that the nation has sold yen last week citing their analysis of the Bank of Japan’s current-account balances. Analysts at Bank of America claim that US dollar may slide to 75.56 yen (October 31 minimum) as risk aversion will likely keep prevailing at the markets. USD/JPY lost about 150 pips last week. The greenback managed to close last week above the lower border of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud. However, Tenkan-sen has crossed Kijun-sen upside-down - bearish signal. In addition, the prices have fallen below the 50-week MA, which is now playing the role of resistance. The daily Ichimoku chart oints at the downtrend. At the same time, specialists at Westpac claim that “dips in the pair towards the low 78.00 region are likely to be well supported. Moreover, we are not too far away from previous intervention levels and if risk appetite does improve/stabilize we suspect the recent run of JPY strength can come to an end.” FBS thinks that the pair will have chance for recovery only above 78.72 (June 1 maximum) and 79.00. Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Chart. Daily USD/JPY Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-05/17885-usdjpy-remains-under-pressure

June 5: economy, policy and currencies Tuesday, June 5, 2012 - 07:19 Today is quite eventful. Finance ministers and central bankers from the G7 nations will hold an emergency conference call today to discuss the euro zone’s debt crisis. Traders covered euro shorts in case the policymakers arrive to some new measures. However, investors will keep selling the single currency on its advance. For now EUR/USD dipped below today’s opening price sliding to $1.2490 after testing resistance at $1.2540 earlier today. Demand for higher-yielding assets improved, Asian equities went up making US dollar and Japanese yen lose versus the majority of their peers. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares added 1% after declining for 4 days in a row. As it was expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 3.50%, the lowest level since 2009. Australian Q1 current account deficit came in line with expectations (AUD$14.9 billion). AUD/USD gained after the RBA’s announcement as the markets were ready for bigger cut. Data to watch today: 9:00 a.m. GMT – euro zone’s retail sales, forecast: -0.1% m/m in April after +0.3% in March. 1:00 p.m. GMT – Bank of Canada’s rate decision: the borrowing costs are seen unchanged at 1%. 2:00 p.m. GMT – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: May readings are seen almost unchanged from April level (53.5). Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-05/17883-june-5-economy-policy-and-currencies

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"Expectations ahead of the ECB meeting "(2012-06-04) Expectations ahead of the ECB meeting This week is packed with the major central bank meetings. We’ve already pointed out that the expectations for the RBS rate cut have significantly strengthened in the recent days, what about the ECB? Policymakers of the European Central Bank are meeting on Wednesday, June 6. In May the central bank left kept the interest rates unchanged at the record minimum of 1% for the fourth month in a row. Analysts at IHS Global Insight think that the ECB will take a wait-and-see approach. In their view, European monetary authorities would like to wait for the results of Greek elections on June 17 as well as some economic growth figures. The specialists think that the ECB will slash the borrowing costs in Q3, probably in July. Deutsche Bank points out that the ECB may decide to accelerate a possible policy response before the next Bank Lending Survey in July due to the weaker European economic data, especially the last flash PMIs indicating a significant slowdown in Q2 output after Q1’s flat print. At the same time, the ECB reiterated that the final responsibility for crisis resolution rests on Europe’s politicians. Economists see a cut in the refinancing rate or, less likely, another 3-year LTRO as possible outcomes. Strategists at BNY Mellon expect no change in the ECB’s rates or stance. However, the specialists think that the central bank may signal that it’s ready to do more. In their view, Draghi is a tricky character to judge so it impossible to know whether he is susceptible to political pressure to cut rates. The bank says the market hasn’t positioned itself towards any solid expectations for the decision, “otherwise the euro would be trading higher.” But there are bets at the margins so the bank expects the euro to strengthen on any remedial action by ECB such as a liquidity injection. Photo from http://crackerjackfinance.com Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-04/17881-expectations-ahead-ecb-meeting

"UBS: short- & longer-term comments "(2012-06-04) UBS: short- & longer-term comments EUR/USD: neutral in the short-term. Recovery is likely. Resistance lies at $1.2650 (38% retracement of the May decline). Support is at $1.2288. GBP/USD: neutral in the short-term. Upward correction may continue in the summing days. Resistance is at $1.5410. Support lies at $1.5235. Analysts at UBS claim that the recent weaker than expected data in the US could make the market expect the Federal Reserve to launch the third round of quantitative easing. At the same time, the specialists still favor the safe-haven dollar amongst the major currencies as the Fed’s actions are surrounded with uncertainty, while the rest of the main central banks could resume their stimulus as the crisis in the euro area remains unsolved. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-04/17875-ubs-short-longer-term-comments[/url]

"BOJ: judging the intervention risk "(2012-06-04) BOJ: judging the intervention risk Bloomberg data shows that Japanese currency lost 10.4% versus its main counterparts in the first 3 months of the year, but then added 12.5% since March. Last week yen, a popular safe haven, has made the biggest weekly advance versus the greenback in 2012. During the resent months USD/JPY has been steadily trading below 1995 minimums in the 80 yen area. However, analysts at Morgan Stanley note that yen still isn’t overvalued compared with 1995: on a trade-weighted basis yen is “roughly” in line with its average over the past 2 decades and would need to appreciate to about 55 yen per dollar to equal its strength in the mid 1990s. Japanese authorities keep saying that they are ready to act in order to weaken the national currency. The nation’s Ministry of Finance sold 14.3 trillion yen ($183 billion) in 2011. The last time it sold the currency was on November 4 – the sales were unannounced and came to the market’s attention after the data appeared in February. There’s talk about the BOJ’s stealth intervention on June 1. Investors don’t believe that Bank of Japan’s intervention will be able to prevent further yen’s appreciation taking into account the current situation in Europe and its negative impact on the markets all over the world. According to PIMCO, the probability of Japan intervening at yen’s current level and pace of change is low as last year yen’s sales were unsuccessful. RBC expects yen to keep strengthening 73 per dollar and 93 per euro by year-end. In their view, “the goal of Japanese officials is to manage the pace of appreciation in the yen and not try to engineer its outright weakness.” Chart. Daily USD/JPY Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-24/17765-pound-recovers-after-negative-gdp

"NFP is unlikely to bring joy "(2012-06-01) NFP is unlikely to bring joy Today is one of the most exiting regular releases of the month – US Non-farm payrolls. Previous (April): +115K. Forecast (May): +151K. Analysts at Standard Chartered think that the actual reading will come between previous and forecast level, at 130K. In their view, the lack of progress at US labor market reflects more the cautious attitude of business to future than indicates fears about a return to recession. Analysts at BNP Paribas also think that NFP will show increase of only 110-140K that is below 150-200K level regarded by the Fed as acceptable. The specialists note that such figures will surely increase the odds of monetary easing in the US. However, BNP Paribas notes that this may happen only later in summer: it’s likely that the Fed’s Jackson Hole gathering in August will once again prove a defining moment in the US monetary policy. Initial jobless claims have recovered after their seasonally adjusted spike higher in April, but they have failed to move below the levels seen in February-March. In addition, ADP employment report released yesterday was lower than expected showing that the number of employed people excluding the farming industry and government rose by 133K in May after increasing by 113K in April (below the forecast of +145K). Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-01/17854-standard-chartered-nfp-wont-bring-joy

"Key options expiring today"(2012-06-01) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2350, $1.2450, $1.2480, $1.2485, $1.2500; USD/JPY: 78.50 and 79.00; GBP/USD: $1.5525; EUR/GBP: 0.8000, 0.8050, 0.8100; USD/CHF: 0.9725; EUR/CHF: 1.2050; AUD/USD: $0.9700, $0.9800.. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-01/17850-key-options-expiring-today

"June 1: currencies & economic background "(2012-06-01) June 1: currencies & economic background The summer has begun in the risk-off mode. Chinese manufacturing PMI disappointed: official figures were down from 53.3 in April to 50.4 in May (that still means expansion, but the critical 50 level is getting closer), while HSBC index dipped from 49.3 to 48.4 vs. 48.7 expected. US dollar gained versus the majority of its peers as a safe haven with the Dollar Index (DXY) reaching 21-month maximum. Even USD/JPY is trading on the upside as investors went long due to potential intervention, but got only the usual verbal commitments from the Japanese Ministry of Finance, so the pair has already erased some of its advance. Euro’s attempt to interrupt the long decline against the greenback ended in red yesterday. EUR/USD has been steadily renewing 2-year minimum this week: today is set at $1.2323. Australian and New Zealand currencies are set to complete 5-week declines against the dollar as Asian stocks fell. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares lost 0.9%. In Europe it’s all about politics. The markets are waiting for the results of Irish referendum on the fiscal pact – Ireland is the only country to put the EU plan to a public vote. Although the polls indicate that the legislation will be ratified, one can’t eliminate the possibility of unpleasant surprises taking into account the fact that Irish voters rejected 2 previous referendums. The results will be announced tonight. In addition, the ECB is pushing Germany to give up its opposition to direct euro-area aid for struggling banks. Important data to watch today: Great Britain: According to forecasts, manufacturing PMI will decrease to 49.7 in May from 50.5 in April, indicating industry contraction and augmenting concerns on the UK economic conditions. Great Britain holds a 10-year bond auction. Canada: GDP in March may have added 0.3% in March after an unexpected contraction by 0.2% in February. US: Analysts expect the US non-farm payrolls to increase by 150K. In April the labor market didn’t fulfill expectations rising only by 115K, far below the 172K consensus forecast. The March unemployment rate is predicted to remain unchanged at 8.1%. The ISM manufacturing PMI in May is expected to drop slightly to 54.1 compared with 54.8 in April Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-24/17767-citigroup-if-greece-leaves-euro-area

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"Key options expiring today"(2012-05-31) Germany avoids recession, but PMIs upset Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2500, $1.2560, $1.2570, $1.2625 and $1.2650 (large); USD/JPY: 79.00, 79.80 and 80.00; AUD/USD: $0.9820, $0.9850, and $0.9900; NZD/USD: $0.7600; USD/CHF: 0.9600; EUR/GBP: 0.8100 and 0.8125. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-31/17832-key-options-expiring-today

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"Italian auction results disappoint"(2012-05-30) Italian auction results disappoint Italy’s 10-year bond yields overcame the critical 6% level for the first time since January, confirming that the euro zone’s crisis is gathering pace. The country managed to sell 5.73 billion euros of 5- and 10-year bonds out of its maximum 6.25 billion euros target. As a result, the yield spread between Italy and Germany’s 10-year bonds increased to 465 basis points. According to most analysts, Italian perceived creditworthiness is impaired mostly by external factors. Photo: Independent Report Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-30/17826-italian-auction-results-disappoint

"Bank of America: comments on USD/CAD"(2012-05-30) Bank of America: comments on USD/CAD A Greek exit from the single currency bloc is a burning question: words “increased uncertainty” have become a fixed collocation in recent months. Market participants massively abandon the common currency: EUR/USD has fallen 6% in May. Why does a tiny Greek economy strike terror into the hearts of investors? According to analysts at Bank of America and JPMorgan, a so called “Grexit” would create a domino effect to other European countries: sovereign defaults, bank runs, credit crunches, recessions and, finally, new exits. Economists at JPMorgan estimate that 1% economic slump in the euro zone economy will trigger 0.7% decline in the other countries. All the exporting countries are extremely vulnerable to Europe’s crisis, no matter if it is Great Britain, Russia or China. U.S., however, is forecasted to cope with upcoming problems with a smaller damage for the economy. In case of exit analysts at Bank of America forecast the euro zone’s GDP to contract by at least 4% during the recession, what is close to the decline after Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008. The common currency is expected to fall to $1.20 levels. Other euro zone’s countries except Germany would suffer from increased borrowing costs (Spain’s bond yields have already reached critical 7%). However, strategists expect Greece to remain in the euro zone because of the high cost of the alternative. According to economists at University of California, the influence of the Grexit on the global economy will depend on the preventive measures, taken to limit the contagion. If the efforts prove to be insufficient, the economic system will get beyond the control. Citigroup analysts are convinced that Greece will leave the euro zone on January 1, 2013. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Chart. The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-30/17820-bank-america-comments-usdcad

"Why is a Greek exit so dangerous?"(2012-05-30) Why is a Greek exit so dangerous? A Greek exit from the single currency bloc is a burning question: words “increased uncertainty” have become a fixed collocation in recent months. Market participants massively abandon the common currency: EUR/USD has fallen 6% in May. Why does a tiny Greek economy strike terror into the hearts of investors? According to analysts at Bank of America and JPMorgan, a so called “Grexit” would create a domino effect to other European countries: sovereign defaults, bank runs, credit crunches, recessions and, finally, new exits. Economists at JPMorgan estimate that 1% economic slump in the euro zone economy will trigger 0.7% decline in the other countries. All the exporting countries are extremely vulnerable to Europe’s crisis, no matter if it is Great Britain, Russia or China. U.S., however, is forecasted to cope with upcoming problems with a smaller damage for the economy. In case of exit analysts at Bank of America forecast the euro zone’s GDP to contract by at least 4% during the recession, what is close to the decline after Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008. The common currency is expected to fall to $1.20 levels. Other euro zone’s countries except Germany would suffer from increased borrowing costs (Spain’s bond yields have already reached critical 7%). However, strategists expect Greece to remain in the euro zone because of the high cost of the alternative. According to economists at University of California, the influence of the Grexit on the global economy will depend on the preventive measures, taken to limit the contagion. If the efforts prove to be insufficient, the economic system will get beyond the control. Citigroup analysts are convinced that Greece will leave the euro zone on January 1, 2013. Cartoon: Tom Janssen Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-30/17824-why-greek-exit-so-dangerous

"Key options expiring today"(2012-05-30) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2450, $1.2475, $1.2600, $1.2675 and $1.2700; USD/JPY: 79.50 and 80.00; EUR/JPY: 100.00; AUD/USD: $0.9705 and $0.9800; GBP/USD: $1.5650, $1.5735 and $1.5800; EUR/GBP: 0.8000; USD/CAD: 1.0200. Photo by Reuters Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-30/17817-key-options-expiring-today

"USD/JPY: technical comments"(2012-05-30) USD/JPY: technical comments The USD/JPY cross keeps trading on a downside despite the fact that today it edged a bit higher once again. Analysts at Standard Chartered expect USD/JPY to stay between 79.00 and 81.00 yen until the risk sentiment improves. In their view, the pair may rise to 83.00 yen on positive Greek vote results, improved U.S. economic data and a monetary policy easing from Bank of Japan. Strategists at UBS opine the Bank may intervene if USD/JPY falls below 78.00. Support: 79.35 (May 24 minimum); 79.21 (May 23 minimum); 79.16 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement from Jan. – Feb. rally); 79.06 (May 21 minimum). Resistance: 79.83 (May 25 maximum); 80.08 (May 23 maximum); 80.15 (May 22 maximum). Early Tuesday a bunch of important data was released in Japan. Unemployment rate slightly increased in April to 4.6%. Japan’s retail sales keep rising for 5th consecutive month (a 5.8% growth), while household spending – for 3rd consecutive month (a 2.6% growth). Later this week watch for Japan’s data releases: • Wednesday: manufacturing PMI; BoJ Governor M.Shirakawa speaks • Thursday: preliminary industrial production; housing starts • Friday: capital spending Chart. Daily USD/JPY Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/1970-01-01/17813-usdjpy-technical-comments

"May 30: economic background"(2012-05-30) May 30: economic background The pair EUR/USD has once again renewed 2-year minimum versus the greenback and tested today the levels below $1.2500. The market’s focus has slightly shifted from Greece to Spain. The Financial Times reported citing unidentified officials that the ECB rejected the plan of Spanish government to recapitalize BFA-Bankia, the nation’s third- biggest lender, which has been nationalized earlier this month through an injection of treasury debt instead of cash. Spanish 10-year bond yields rose yesterday to the maximal level since November getting close to the critical level of 7%. Risk sentiment was also affected by the fact that Chinese authorities have no plan to introduce large-scale stimulus measures to support growth. AUD/USD dipped below $0.9800. Aussie was also hurt by discouraging retail sales data (-0.2% m/m in April). USD/JPY is little changed for the second day trading just under downtrend resistance line. Events to watch today: Switzerland: KOF Economic Barometer index is forecasted to increase to 0.44 in May, indicating that the Swiss Economy is headed towards an expansion in 2012. Euro zone: Italy holds a 10-year bond auction. The previous one, which took place a couple of weeks ago, went well, but the interest rate reached 5.66%. Later in the day ECB President Mario Draghi will be speaking in Brussels and may unveil the central bank's position ahead of the rate decision next week. US: Pending home sales in April are expected to remain unchanged after a 4.1% surge in March. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05-30/17815-may-30-economic-background

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Happy Weekend from entire FBS team!!! FBS wishes you Finance,Freedom and Success in trading! (Best mini Forex Broker of 2010 - 2011) Fastest Growing Forex Broker Asia 2012 Stay connected with FBS because its all about you!