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June 26-29: main economic events (2012-06-26) June 26-29: main economic events Tuesday, June 26 Euro area: GfK German consumer climate in June is likely to remain unchanged at 5.7. Italy will offer inflation-linked securities maturing in 2016 and 2026 and 3 billion euro ($3.8 billion) of zero-coupon bonds. Spain will sell 3- and 6-month bills. Britain: Public sector net borrowing in May is forecasted to rise to 13.1B after a 18.8B decline in April. Later in the day the inflation report hearings will take place. US: S&P house price index is expected to decline by 2.4% y/y in April (the contraction will be less than in March). CB consumer confidence index in June is to decline to 64.0 vs. 64.9 in May on the back of the deteriorating labor market conditions. Wednesday, June 27 Germany: Preliminary CPI in June is forecasted to remain unchanged after a 0.2% decline in May. US: A bunch of positive US data is expected to be released. Core durable goods orders, leading indicator of production, are expected to go up in May by 1.0% m/m compared with a 0.9% decline in April, what will be a positive sign for the economy. Durable goods orders (including transportation items) may increase by 0.5% after a remaining flat in the previous month. Pending home sales in May are to increase by 1.3% m/m vs. a 5.5% drop in April. However, the confidence in the stability of the US housing market is still weak. Japan: Retail sales in May are likely to increase by 3.1% y/y after a 5.7% growth in April. Thursday, June 28 Europe: EU Economic Summit will be the first time European leaders meet since the Greek parliamentary elections on June 17. The nation’s new Prime Minister Antonis Samaras who pledged to seek relief from austerity measures imposed on the country while keeping the bailout funds flowing as he has recently undergone surgery to repair a detached retina. Billionaire investor George Soros warns that if the fiscal disagreements aren’t resolved in the next 3 days, the summit could turn out to be a fiasco. In addition, Italy will try to sell 10-year government bonds. The results of the auction will have an extremely strong effect on the market’s sentiment. The yields will be used as a gauge of the market’s confidence of the European policymakers’ resolve to solve the crisis. Britain: The final British GDP figures will likely confirm that the nation’s economy has fallen into recession declining by 0.3% q/q in the first 3 months of 2012 after losing 0.3% in Q4 2011. Although the markets have already priced in the grim news, the release will once again remind investors about UK economic weakness and make them think that the Bank of England will ultimately have to expand its Asset Purchase Program. Also watch Britain’s current account data, BOE credit conditions survey and Nationwide HPI. US: The United States also release the final Q1 GDP readings: in May US economic growth in the first quarter was revised down from 2.2% q/q to 1.9%. No further revision is expected this time, so negative surprise would weight on the greenback. Unemployment claims – the indicator closely watched every week – is seen declining slightly from 387K to 385K. Japan: Here’s a group of important reports which will determine the sentiment during the Asian session. The nation’s core CPI may have risen by only 0.1% y/y in May or even stayed flat compared with the 0.2% y/y increase in April. Tokyo core CPI has been posting negative readings since the short respite last summer. Deflation threat could force the Bank of Japan to do additional easing. Also watch Japanese manufacturing PMI, industrial production, household spending and unemployment data. Friday, June 29 Europe: This is the second day of the EU Economic Summit, so main comments and releases will appear today. As for the economic data, the focus will be on German May retail sales and French May consumer spending change – both indicators are forecasted to show weaker growth than before. Euro zone’s CPI is seen unchanged this month at 2.4% y/y. Britain: the BOE will deliver its Financial Stability Report and the Governor Mervyn King will comment on UK financial prospects. The release and King’s speech will be closely watched as the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has recently warned that the European crisis could infect the UK and the global economy unless governments take urgent action to tackle their problems. Canada: Canada’s economy is expected to add 0.2% in April m/m after gaining 0.1% on March. Advance indicators are mixed: retail sales were discouraging last month, while wholesale trade and housing managed to rise. Moreover, the 58K jobs gain in May was mostly due to the increase in full-time jobs, while aggregate hours worked were flat. Such dynamics may be a warning signal as GDP equals hours worked times labor productivity. US: the University of Michigan will release revised consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data. The outlook of US consumers could see a slight upward revision in June with from the preliminary estimate of 74.1 to 74.3 but remain at 6-month minimum. Also watch US personal spending, personal income and core PCE price index figures as well as Chicago PMI. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-26/18073-june-26-29-main-economic-events

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"Key options expiring today"(2012-06-25) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2500, $1.2580, $1.2650, $1.2700; USD/JPY: 79.00, 79.50, 80.25, 80.35, 80.50; GBP/USD: $1.5600, $1.5800; AUD/USD: $0.9850, $0.9965, $1.0030, $1.0200; USD/CAD: 1.0110. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-25/18065-key-options-expiring-today`

Monday, June 25: economy and currencies (2012-06-25) Monday, June 25: economy and currencies EUR/USD weakens on Monday ahead of the Italy’s and Spain’s debt auctions scheduled on Tuesday. Spain is to sell 3- and 6-month bills tomorrow, while Italy will auction inflation-linked securities maturing in 2016 and 2026, as well as up to 3 billion euro in zero-coupon bonds. At the end of the last week Spain’s bond yields declined to 6.38% after overcoming the critical 7% level. Investors fear that the euro zone’s crisis will contaminate bigger economies. The EU leaders meeting in Brussels on June 28-29 is likely to become one of the most important events of the week: politicians will discuss measures towards a regional banking union, tight fiscal integration and the possibility of a debt redemption. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) of shares slid 0.3%: the market switched into a risk-off mode with an increased demand for safe-havens. AUD/USD and NZD/USD fell on speculation the euro zone’s borrowing costs will continue to grow. USD/JPY demonstrates a downward movement after three days of a consecutive growth. Event to watch today: the US new home sales in May are expected to climb to 347K from 343K in April. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-25/18064-monday-june-25-economy-and-currencies

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"Greece: new government, old problems"(2012-06-20) Greece: new government, old problems According to Pasok leader Evangelos Venizelos, three Greek political parties finally managed to form a parliamentary coalition. In the new government the right-centered New Democracy Party, the winner of the June 17 election, will hold 129 seats, the socialist Pasok – 33 seats and the Democratic Left – 17 seats. All in all, they will control 179 seats in the 300-member parliament. Antonis Samaras, leader of the New Democracy, will become a prime-minister. The opposition radical-left Syriza Party (71 seat) refused to join the pro-bailout government. Analysts at Wells Fargo point that the euro zone’s crisis is far from over. Greece made a step towards the partnership with the EU and the IMF, but it still remains unclear if the country manages to fulfill conditions set by its lenders. Citigroup: Despite the election results the Greek exit possibility still remains high (50-75% in a 18-month period). The growing success of the leftist Syriza Party signals major challenges ahead. Moreover, many economists note the Greek problems pales in comparison to the debt pit in which Spain slides. Antonis Samaras, the conservative New Democracy leader Photograph: Panagiotis Tzamaros/AFP/Getty Images Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-20/18032-greece-new-government-old-problems

"GBP weakens on UK data"(2012-06-20) GBP weakens on UK data The sterling weakens against the euro on the back of a bunch of negative data released in UK on Wednesday. The cable, however, goes up on the prospects of the Fed’s policy easing. Minutes of the Bank of England’s June 6-7 meeting showed 4 of 9 MPC members voted for the expansion of the bond purchase program. Therefore, the likeliness of the additional policy easing increased sharply. Moreover, jobless-benefit claims rocketed to 8.1K in May after a drop of 12.8K in April (forecast – a 3.1K decline), while unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.2%. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Chart. Daily EUR/GBP Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-20/18027-gbp-weakens-uk-data

"Barclays Capital: bearish on EUR/CAD"(2012-06-20) Barclays Capital: bearish on EUR/CAD Analysts at Barclays Capital recommend selling the euro against the Canadian dollar ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday where the Fed is likely to extend the Operation Twist program. Despite the fact that the dovish FOMC statement will weaken the greenback and the “neighboring” currencies, analysts expect the loonie to grow vs. the common currency due to its high-beta properties. A switch to the Canadian dollar will help to avoid direct losses, connected with the Fed’s easing measures. Specialists believe that the global risk sentiment is likely to remain high in the medium term on the back of the positive outcome of the Greek elections and the seeming readiness of the central banks to support the national economies. The ECB is expected to cut rates by 50 b.p., while the Bank of England – to extend the asset purchases program by 50 billion pounds in July. The demand for high-yield currencies, therefore, is likely to edge up, even if the situation in the euro zone worsens. Chart. Daily EUR/CAD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-20/18025-barclays-capital-bearish-eurcad

Wednesday, June 20: economy and currencies (2012-06-20) Wednesday, June 20: economy and currencies On Wednesday EUR/USD trades in the $1.2680 area. The factors, influencing the cross, are controversial: on the one hand, the greenback remains under pressure ahead of the FOMC meeting held today (Bloomberg survey of 64 economists shows 37 expect the Fed to announce an extension of Operation Twist today). Greece is finally close to forming a coalition: according to Pasok leader Evangelos Venizelos, a new government could be ready by midday today. The G20 statement calls Europe for integration and doesn’t mention any easing measures. On the other hand, the euro’s growth has many constraints: the euro zone’s problems are here to stay, investors remain concerned about Spain’s and Italy’s borrowing costs. USD/JPY continues a downward movement today. Japan’s trade deficit in May increased to 907B compared with the 544B yen deficit expected (second-worst since 2009), even though the exports improved. The minutes of the May 22-23 meeting were released early Wednesday: a few BoJ members said the regulator must be ready to act if risks materialize from Europe. According to BoJ’s Governor Masaaki Shirakawa, the economy starts to pick up moderately. The MSCI Asia Pacific (MXAP) Index gained 1.1% on Wednesday. The Aussie strengthens for the fifth consecutive day despite the negative data releases (CB Leading Index, Housing Starts). New Zealand and Canadian dollar, however, demonstrate a downward movement. NZD current account deficit declined in Q1, but was still bigger than forecasted. Events to watch today: • Great Britain: claimant count change, MPC meeting minutes, unemployment rate • US: FOMC meeting, crude oil inventories Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-20/18023-wednesday-june-20-economy-and-currencies

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"G20 leaders meet in Mexico"(2012-06-15) G20 leaders meet in Mexico A two-day G20 summit started in Los Cabos, Mexico on Monday. It should come as no surprise that the European issues are on the top of the agenda: the stabilization of the global economy and the reinforcement of the financial system. The pro-bailout choice of Greek voters has brought a sign of relief to the markets. However, the effect is not expected to be long-lasting: Spain and Italy moved into the limelight. The G-20 countries are expected to confirm the IMF's planned $430 billion firewall to help the IMF to protect the indebted countries. The IMF chief Christine Lagarde, however, may insist on extending the firewall straight to $500 billion. The G20 leaders are also to give high priority to the problem of the global food price spikes and to work out mechanisms for their rapid stabilization. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-18/18005-g20-leaders-meet-mexico

"EUR is up on Greek election results"(2012-06-18) EUR is up on Greek election results Greek elections finally came and went. The results of the vote give hope that the nation’s policymakers will now be able to act efficiently to get the country out of the crisis. As almost all votes are counted, the conservative New Democracy party will get 129 seats in the 300-seat parliament and its potential ally socialist Pasok party 33 seats. This is quite enough to ensure a workable majority and form a coalition government which will put all its efforts to keep Greece in the euro area and renegotiate the terms of the bailout. The latter will be vital as the austerity program is pushing the nation deeper in recession. The talks of on forming a government will likely start today. The left forces opposing the bailout got in the minority with the total 121 seats, including 71 to be occupied by the Radical Left Coalition’s (Syriza) deputies. Photo Nikolas Giakoumidis/AP EUR/USD has another week of opening with a gap on the upside at $1.2693, above 38.2% retracement of the May decline. Barclays Capital: “We continue to think the pressure on euro will be lower as weak growth will imply continued monetary policy easing by the ECB in the future. There has been some knee-jerk buying, which may have more to go. We would prefer to fade the rally than buying into it.” Westpac: EUR/USD will rise to $1.2825/50 (May 21 maximum), but the potential for further advance isn’t high. The specialists note that Germany won’t easily agree to change the bailout conditions. Standard Chartered: “The result has probably bought some time for Spain and Italy. But questions over the Spanish banking-sector bailout will persist, with clarification this week on how much will be requested.” Photo Nikolas Giakoumidis/AP Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-18/18001-eur-greek-election-results

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"Draghi: ECB ready to rescue banks"(2012-06-15) Draghi: ECB ready to rescue banks The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Friday that the regulator is ready to take all the necessary measures to support the euro zone’s economy in conditions of increased uncertainty. Draghi told that the ECB will continue providing liquidity to solvent banks. The EU monetary authorities, therefore, leave the door open for the further policy easing. Last week the ECB left its key interest rate at 1.0%, but a few members of the governing council voted for a rate cut. The ECB President also underlined that these days the EU officials are working out proposals on how to resolve the situation with minimal damage and will present the results on the EU summit on June 28-29. Mario Draghi’s comments are especially important ahead of the Greek parliamentary elections, upcoming on Sunday. The vote is likely to determine the future of Greece in or out of the EU and of the single currency itself. Moreover, on Sunday the second round of the French parliamentary elections takes place. Photo: The Telegraph Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-15/17997-draghi-ecb-ready-rescue-banks

"Draghi: ECB ready to rescue banks"(2012-06-15) Draghi: ECB ready to rescue banks The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Friday that the regulator is ready to take all the necessary measures to support the euro zone’s economy in conditions of increased uncertainty. Draghi told that the ECB will continue providing liquidity to solvent banks. The EU monetary authorities, therefore, leave the door open for the further policy easing. Last week the ECB left its key interest rate at 1.0%, but a few members of the governing council voted for a rate cut. The ECB President also underlined that these days the EU officials are working out proposals on how to resolve the situation with minimal damage and will present the results on the EU summit on June 28-29. Mario Draghi’s comments are especially important ahead of the Greek parliamentary elections, upcoming on Sunday. The vote is likely to determine the future of Greece in or out of the EU and of the single currency itself. Moreover, on Sunday the second round of the French parliamentary elections takes place. Photo: The Telegraph Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-15/17997-draghi-ecb-ready-rescue-banks

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"AUD/USD: prospects for growth"(2012-06-15) AUD/USD: prospects for growth The AUD/USD cross managed to fix above the parity level on Thursday and continues extending its gains on Friday. Specialists seem to be rather optimistic. Analysts at Westpac believe the pair will surge in case of a clear win of the pro-bailout New Democracy and Pasok parties on Greek elections on Sunday. According to strategists at RBS, the pair has good prospects for growth if it breaks the tough resistance, created by the Fibonacci levels and the 10- and 21-day MAs. Specialists at Commerzbank expect the cross to strengthen to $1.0146 in a short-term. Support: 0.9397 (October 2011 minimum); 0.9667 (Nov. 2011 minimum); 0.9881 (Dec. 19 minimum). Resistance: 1.0077 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the Oct. 2011 – Nov. 2012 range); 1.0146 (Jan. 2012 minimum) 1.0207 (50% Fibonacci retracement from the Oct. 2011 – Nov. 2012 range). Chart. Daily AUD/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-15/17994-audusd-prospects-growth

"Сapital flows out of the euro area"(2012-06-15) Сapital flows out of the euro area According to analysts at Nomura Securities, in recent months there is an evident capital flight from the euro zone. If the trend continues, the single currency will trade much lower as it was a traditional emerging market currency crisis. Specialists believe that on this matter the Europe’s debt crisis may be divided on three phases. In their view, during the first phase (April 2010-June 2011) investors sold assets from peripheral countries and tied up capital in the safe countries. In the second phase (July 2011-January 2012) the investors concerns on Spain and Italy started to grow. However, according to analysts, big amounts of money were still repatriated back to the euro zone. These days the economy is in the third phase, when huge amounts of money are draining abroad. Meanwhile, Switzerland and Denmark are making efforts to retain control on their strong national currencies. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-15/17992-sapital-flows-out-euro-area

Friday, June 15: economy and currencies (2012-06-15) Friday, June 15: economy and currencies Euro zone: The ECB President Mario Draghi speaks. Canada: Manufacturing sales, a leading indicator of economic health, are expected to go up by 2.2% in April after a 1.9% growth in March. Great Britain: Britain’s trade deficit is expected to decline slightly to 8.5B. U.S.: Empire State Manufacturing Index in June is to decline to 14.1 from the previous 17.1 print, while the industrial production in May is likely to increase by 0.1% vs. a 1.1% growth in April. Capacity utilization rate, a leading indicator of consumer inflation, is expected to remain at 79.2%. Economists forecast the preliminary UoM consumer sentiment index to decline to 77.5 in June. In May the key indicator of the consumer spending reached its highest level in four years (79.3), what is a good sign for the U.S. economy. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-15/17990-friday-june-15-economy-and-currencies

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"Commerzbank: comments on USD/CAD "(2012-06-13) Commerzbank: comments on USD/CAD Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the greenback has eased down from June maximum in the 1.0450 area versus its Canadian counterpart consolidating above 1.0200. The specialists claim that if USD/CAD breached the support mentioned above, it will slide to 1.0124 (50% retracement of the May advance) and then to at 1.0105 (200-day MA). However, the bank’s baseline scenario is positive for US currency: US dollar may recoil up from 1.0200 and travel upwards during the next few weeks. The targets on the upside above 1.0450 are 1.0523 (November maximum) and 1.0583 (200-week MA). . Chart. Daily USD/CAD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-13/17982-commerzbank-comments-usdcad

"Sumitomo: EUR/JPY may slide to record low "(2012-06-13) Sumitomo: EUR/JPY may slide to record low Analysts at Sumitomo Mitsui claim that euro versus has completed a “head-and-shoulders” pattern Japanese yen at the end of May. According to the specialists, the first shoulder was formed on January 26 (102.20 yen), the head – on March 21 (111.43 yen) and the second shoulder – on May 22. The bank says EUR/JPY may drop to the new record minimum of 88.51 yen – this target is calculating by subtracting the distance between the neckline and the head from the neckline. If we look at the daily Ichimoku Chart, we’ll see that the pair’s testing Kijun-sen (blue line) as well as the psychological resistance at 100 yen. Downward pressure on euro will strengthen if it fails at this point and slides below support of Tenkan-sen (red line) in the 98.30 zone. Chart. Daily EUR/JPY Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-13/17980-sumitomo-eurjpy-may-slide-record-low

"Westpac: trading AUD/NZD"(2012-06-13) Westpac: trading AUD/NZD Analysts at Westpac claim that one should wait until the pair AUD/NZD rises on the RBNZ rate-cut talk, and then sell the Australian dollar versus its New Zealand’s counterpart around 1.2870, targeting 1.2600 and stopping at 1.2960. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be meeting Wednesday night. Westpac believes that the central bank won’t lower the borrowing costs, so trade on the market’s expectations seems like a good opportunity. According to Westpac, the RBA will cut rates a couple more times, but the RBNZ will remain on hold for the rest of 2012. Chart. Daily AUD/NZD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-13/17978-westpac-trading-audnzd

"RBNZ is unlikely to cut rates"(2012-06-13) RBNZ is unlikely to cut rates The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to leave the official cash rate at 2.5% when it meets on Thursday, June 14. Despite the increased uncertainty in the euro zone and the slowdown of the global economic rebound, further rate cuts, according to the RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard, could cause a new credit boom. The rate cut expectations declined sharply in recent weeks: after about 80% of probability a few weeks ago, these days only 20% of economists believe in the chance of a cut. Specialists at JPMorgan expect a rate cut to happen in the next few months, because the CB needs more information on the global economy prospects to take the right decision. Photo: FX service Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-13/17977-rbnz-unlikely-cut-rates