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BMO: trading EUR/USD ahead of ECB (2012-07-02) BMO: trading EUR/USD ahead of ECB These days, after the EU leaders demonstrated readiness to act to resolve the crisis, the market participants are trying to guess where will the euro move now and what to wait from the ECB on July 5. Strategists at BMO Capital Markets recommend going long on EUR/USD at the current levels, targeting at 1.2825 and with a stop at 1.2425. Specialists believe it will make sense to buy all the risky assets including the euro, the Aussie and the kiwi if the currency block holds out. According to analysts, the ECB is likely to reward political leaders by cutting the interest rate. This action could help to ease economic conditions and to reduce risk. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-02/18131-bmo-trading-eurusd-ahead-ecb

July 2: economy and currencies (2012-07-02) July 2: economy and currencies On Monday EUR/USD weakens after an impressive growth on Friday on the positive EU Summit results (euro leaders eased terms on loans to Spanish banks). Today the single currency is under pressure of expectations that the regional unemployment may reach record 11.1% in May, while manufacturing PMI – to decline to 44.8 in June. The market, therefore, expects the ECB to cut interest rates to 0.75% on the forthcoming meeting (July 5). According to analysts at UBS, the latest EU summit has clearly bought time for the euro, but it still does not remove the bearish case for the currency. USD/JPY declines today: both Tankan manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI indices exceeded the previous prints and the expectations (-1 and 8 respectively). However, most analysts still expect the BoJ to expand its asset purchases on a meeting on July 11-12. The Tankan is probably up because the low commodity prices improved the sentiment. AUD/USD weakens; however, the Aussie remains near to an almost two-month high on bets RBA will leave interest rates on hold at 3.5% tomorrow. NZD/USD maintained its biggest gain in three weeks vs. the greenback as Asian stocks extended a global rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) gained 0.3% today. The S& P 500 Index rose 2.5% on June 29, after Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 2.7% following the EU Summit. Events to watch today: Canada: Bank holiday Switzerland: Retail sales are likely to increase by 0.9% in May after a 0.1% growth in April. Great Britain: Manufacturing PMI is to grow to 46.7 from 45.9. However, the indicator still remains below 50, what indicates industry contraction. Euro zone: Analysts expect the Italian manufacturing PMI to decline to 44.6 from 44.8. Unemployment rate in the region is to increase to 11.1% in May from 11.0%. US: ISM manufacturing PMI is forecasted to decline to 52.1 from 53.5. Later investors will pay attention to FOMC member Williams speech. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-02/18129-july-2-economy-and-currencies

"EU summit: analysts aren’t entirely happy "(2012-06-29) EU summit: analysts aren’t entirely happy All the talk is about EU summit. Here are the analysts’ comments on the issue. UBS: the innovation of an “effective single supervisory mechanism” and the ESM being able to recapitalize banks directly “will likely come far too late to be of immediate use during the recapitalization of the Spanish banking system.” “Any funding provided to recapitalize Spanish banks over the coming months is still very likely to inflate the Spanish sovereign debt levels.” Lloyds Bank: “It is one step on a very long road. But we don't have any details, and arguably the detail is where the risk lies, because the market will start to pick holes in it as we've seen previously.” BOTMUFJ: among questions the market will ask is whether the firepower available to the rescue funds will be enough to stabilize the 2.5 trillion euro Spanish and Italian bond markets, and how easy will it be to agree on the banking supervisory mechanism. “Our initial view is this deal is no game-changer, and any EUR/USD rally will simply offer attractive levels to sell”. Westpac: “Definitely some good news for risk markets here, though it is not the ‘big bazooka’.” Image from todayheads.com Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-29/18119-eu-summit-analysts-arent-entirely-happy

"EU summit: analysts aren’t entirely happy "(2012-06-29) EU summit: analysts aren’t entirely happy All the talk is about EU summit. Here are the analysts’ comments on the issue. UBS: the innovation of an “effective single supervisory mechanism” and the ESM being able to recapitalize banks directly “will likely come far too late to be of immediate use during the recapitalization of the Spanish banking system.” “Any funding provided to recapitalize Spanish banks over the coming months is still very likely to inflate the Spanish sovereign debt levels.” Lloyds Bank: “It is one step on a very long road. But we don't have any details, and arguably the detail is where the risk lies, because the market will start to pick holes in it as we've seen previously.” BOTMUFJ: among questions the market will ask is whether the firepower available to the rescue funds will be enough to stabilize the 2.5 trillion euro Spanish and Italian bond markets, and how easy will it be to agree on the banking supervisory mechanism. “Our initial view is this deal is no game-changer, and any EUR/USD rally will simply offer attractive levels to sell”. Westpac: “Definitely some good news for risk markets here, though it is not the ‘big bazooka’.” Image from todayheads.com Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-29/18119-eu-summit-analysts-arent-entirely-happy

"EU summit: analysts aren’t entirely happy "(2012-06-29) EU summit: analysts aren’t entirely happy All the talk is about EU summit. Here are the analysts’ comments on the issue. UBS: the innovation of an “effective single supervisory mechanism” and the ESM being able to recapitalize banks directly “will likely come far too late to be of immediate use during the recapitalization of the Spanish banking system.” “Any funding provided to recapitalize Spanish banks over the coming months is still very likely to inflate the Spanish sovereign debt levels.” Lloyds Bank: “It is one step on a very long road. But we don't have any details, and arguably the detail is where the risk lies, because the market will start to pick holes in it as we've seen previously.” BOTMUFJ: among questions the market will ask is whether the firepower available to the rescue funds will be enough to stabilize the 2.5 trillion euro Spanish and Italian bond markets, and how easy will it be to agree on the banking supervisory mechanism. “Our initial view is this deal is no game-changer, and any EUR/USD rally will simply offer attractive levels to sell”. Westpac: “Definitely some good news for risk markets here, though it is not the ‘big bazooka’.” Image from todayheads.com Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-29/18119-eu-summit-analysts-arent-entirely-happy

"All eyes are on German parliament "(2012-06-29) All eyes are on German parliament Although there are still issues of confrontation among the European policymakers including joint debt, euro bonds, the region’s policymakers have managed to show their resolve in combating the debt crisis. All eyes are now on the parliamentary vote in Germany tonight on whether to ratify the ESM Treaty and the Fiscal Compact Treaty. Germany was forced to give up and allow easing conditions on Spanish banks’ rescue and potential Italian bailout. The Chancellor Angela Merkel said after that she was “very satisfied that we took good decisions on growth.” Now she will have to explain the deal to German lawmakers. The debate will begin at 15:00 GMT. The demand for safer assets will get some support on the news. Photo: German Bundestag/Müller Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-29/18118-all-eyes-are-german-parliament

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"Long-term forecasts for CAD"(2012-06-28) Long-term forecasts for CAD Analysts at Capital Economics believe that the greenback will keep strengthening versus its Canadian counterpart this year to 1.0870 by the end of 2012 and to 1.1630 in 2013. The specialists expect loonie to weaken due to declining commodity prices and no Bank of Canada’s interest rate hike this year. Brent crude oil has so far tested the levels below $90 a barrel and Capital Economics forecasts it to end the year at $85 a barrel, while “business investment prospects already look less sure than a month ago.” In addition, the recent revision to mortgage rules in Canada is likely to curb housing activity which accounts for a considerable share of the nation’s GDP. For loonie downside risks outweigh the upside risks, say the analysts. Specialists at Scotiabank, however, aren’t that bearish on loonie. On the other hand, they believe that USD/CAD will finish 2012 at parity and then hover there in 2013. According to the bank, the expectations of the BOC rate hikes may return later in the year if global economic sentiment improves. Among other factors positive for CAD Scotia names China’s monetary stimulus efforts, which may prop up commodity prices by the end of the year, and weakening US inflation, which could boost spending, lifting Canadian exports. Chart. Weekly USD/CAD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-28/18114-long-term-forecasts-cad

"RBS turned bearish on AUD/USD "(2012-06-28) RBS turned bearish on AUD/USD Analysts at RBS recommend selling Australian dollar versus its US counterpart stopping at $1.0250 (200-day MA) and targeting $0.9579 (2012 minimum). The specialists have finally given up optimism on Aussie. Support: $1.0029 (50-day MA); $0.9924 (June 14 minimum, 38.2% Fibo retracement of the decline October to November); $0.9881 (23.6% Fibo retracement of the decline from February to June); $0.9794/9803 (May 18 minimum, June 5 maximum). Resistance $1.0141 (June 6 maximum); $1.0208/15 (50% Fibo retracement of the decline from October to November and the slide from February to June). Chart. Daily AUD/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-28/18112-rbs-turned-bearish-audusd

June 28: economy and currencies (2012-06-28) June 28: economy and currencies The most expected event on Thursday is the EU leaders meeting in Brussels where the key euro zone’s problems are to be discussed. EUR/USD declines for a fourth consecutive day ahead of the Italian bond auction and the EU summit. Most investors say that the widely discussed banking union is premature: nations are not ready to share debt. GBP/USD plunges on low EU summit expectations. Early Thursday the risky currencies demonstrated growth, but now are mostly in the red. Kiwi falls on the data that the NBNZ Business Confidence index halved in June, the Aussie and the loonie drop. USD/JPY goes down on Japan’s better than expected retail sales data. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares climbed 1.1% after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.9% on Wednesday. Events to watch: Europe: EU Economic Summit will be the first time European leaders meet since the Greek parliamentary elections on June 17. The nation’s new Prime Minister Antonis Samaras who pledged to seek relief from austerity measures imposed on the country while keeping the bailout funds flowing as he has recently undergone surgery to repair a detached retina. Billionaire investor George Soros warns that if the fiscal disagreements aren’t resolved in the next 3 days, the summit could turn out to be a fiasco. In addition, Italy will try to sell 10-year government bonds. The results of the auction will have an extremely strong effect on the market’s sentiment. The yields will be used as a gauge of the market’s confidence of the European policymakers’ resolve to solve the crisis. Britain: The final British GDP figures will likely confirm that the nation’s economy has fallen into recession declining by 0.3% q/q in the first 3 months of 2012 after losing 0.3% in Q4 2011. Although the markets have already priced in the grim news, the release will once again remind investors about UK economic weakness and make them think that the Bank of England will ultimately have to expand its Asset Purchase Program. US: The United States also release the final Q1 GDP readings: in May US economic growth in the first quarter was revised down from 2.2% q/q to 1.9%. No further revision is expected this time, so negative surprise would weight on the greenback. Unemployment claims – the indicator closely watched every week – is seen declining slightly from 387K to 385K. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-28/18110-june-28-economy-and-currencies

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"Commerzbank: bearish view on NZD"(2012-06-27) Commerzbank: bearish view on NZD Technical analysts at Commerzbank are bearish on New Zealand’s dollar versus the greenback. In their view, NZD/USD will breach support of $0.7844 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of this year’s decline) and decline to $0.7774 (January 6 minimum), $0.7736 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s advance in June) and $0.7677/70 (May 22 maximum and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement). The long-term negative targets are $0.7469/0.7371 (October, November and December minimums) and $0.7186 (200-week MA) and $0.7116 (2011 minimum) According to the bank, the outlook for the pair will remain bearish as long as it’s trading below $0.8017 (last week’s maximum). Key resistance for the pair lies at $0.8059/85 (March and April lows, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 4-month resistance line). Chart. Daily NZD/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-27/18102-commerzbank-bearish-view-nzd

"Commerzbank: bearish view on NZD"(2012-06-27) Commerzbank: bearish view on NZD Technical analysts at Commerzbank are bearish on New Zealand’s dollar versus the greenback. In their view, NZD/USD will breach support of $0.7844 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of this year’s decline) and decline to $0.7774 (January 6 minimum), $0.7736 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s advance in June) and $0.7677/70 (May 22 maximum and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement). The long-term negative targets are $0.7469/0.7371 (October, November and December minimums) and $0.7186 (200-week MA) and $0.7116 (2011 minimum) According to the bank, the outlook for the pair will remain bearish as long as it’s trading below $0.8017 (last week’s maximum). Key resistance for the pair lies at $0.8059/85 (March and April lows, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 4-month resistance line). Chart. Daily NZD/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-27/18102-commerzbank-bearish-view-nzd

"Commerzbank: bearish view on NZD"(2012-06-27) Commerzbank: bearish view on NZD Technical analysts at Commerzbank are bearish on New Zealand’s dollar versus the greenback. In their view, NZD/USD will breach support of $0.7844 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of this year’s decline) and decline to $0.7774 (January 6 minimum), $0.7736 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s advance in June) and $0.7677/70 (May 22 maximum and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement). The long-term negative targets are $0.7469/0.7371 (October, November and December minimums) and $0.7186 (200-week MA) and $0.7116 (2011 minimum) According to the bank, the outlook for the pair will remain bearish as long as it’s trading below $0.8017 (last week’s maximum). Key resistance for the pair lies at $0.8059/85 (March and April lows, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 4-month resistance line). Chart. Daily NZD/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-27/18102-commerzbank-bearish-view-nzd

"Commerzbank: bearish view on NZD"(2012-06-27) Commerzbank: bearish view on NZD Technical analysts at Commerzbank are bearish on New Zealand’s dollar versus the greenback. In their view, NZD/USD will breach support of $0.7844 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of this year’s decline) and decline to $0.7774 (January 6 minimum), $0.7736 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s advance in June) and $0.7677/70 (May 22 maximum and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement). The long-term negative targets are $0.7469/0.7371 (October, November and December minimums) and $0.7186 (200-week MA) and $0.7116 (2011 minimum) According to the bank, the outlook for the pair will remain bearish as long as it’s trading below $0.8017 (last week’s maximum). Key resistance for the pair lies at $0.8059/85 (March and April lows, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 4-month resistance line). Chart. Daily NZD/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-27/18102-commerzbank-bearish-view-nzd

"Japanese tax hike: pro et contra "(2012-06-27) Japanese tax hike: pro et contra Japan's lower house has voted to approve doubling the country's consumption tax to 10% over three years. The legislation now goes to the opposition-dominated upper chamber, where it is expected to pass during the current session of parliament ending September. However, the decision was not unanimous: 363 lawmakers voted in favor, while 96 - against. Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda championed the controversial bill regardless of the objections from his own party. In his view, the tax hike is needed to reduce the snowballing budget deficit (forecasted to reach 214% of GDP in 2012). Japan’s government says that the increase will generate $170 billion a year for the budget. Opponents believe the hike is premature and will weaken the economy further because it will limit the consumption. Analysts at UBS fear that the first tax hike in 2014 could bring the economic recovery after the last year’s earthquake and tsunami to the deadlock. According to the Cabinet Office’s Economic and Social Research Institute, a 1% point increase in the tax will cut GDP growth by 0.32% a year after. In this case a strong economic stimulus will be required to support the rebounding economy. In a short-term, the international investors take the “wait-and-see” approach, because they have already burned many times by trying to trade USD/JPY on Japan’s political events. Specialists at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation also don’t expect the Japan’s fiscal policy and the internal political differences to be the core factors to specify the yen's direction. Yoshihiko Noda, Prime Minister of Japan, a member of the Democratic Party of Japan Photo: Franck Robichon/EPA Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-27/18095-japanese-tax-hike-pro-et-contra

Zerohedge: EUR/USD and CB balance sheets (2012-06-27) Zerohedge: EUR/USD and CB balance sheets Analysts at Zerohedge, US financial blog, point out an interesting thing about EUR/USD. The European Central Bank announced yesterday that in the past week its balance sheet increased by 31 billion euro to a new all time record maximum of 3.058 trillion euro due to the increase in the main refinancing operations (MRO). The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, on the other hand, continues to be flat, or is even modestly declining. The authors of the blog claim that EUR/USD moves have been based upon balance sheet correlation. However, in recent months this trend got broken as the markets were on the constant guard of more QE from the Fed. Now the fair value of the pair, according to this method, is at $1.1600. Look to the chart below which is the perfect illustration of this relationship. Zerohedge points out that there are 2 possible scenarios here. 1. If the Fed keeps refraining from further stimulus and the ECB will do all the unsterilized intervention, EUR/USD will continue its way down. 2. If the Fed announces large-scale asset purchases, EUR/USD will surge by at least 400 pips. “Place your bets,” the bloggers say. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-27/18...-balance-sheets" target="_blank">http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-27/18...-balance-sheets</a>

June 27: economy and currencies (2012-06-27) June 27: economy and currencies The market’s in the uncertainty stalemate ahead of EU summit on June 28-29. Investors seem very cautious and are reluctant to make any wagers. Commodity currencies are trading on the downside. Yesterday GBP/USD managed to rise above Friday’s maximums to print daily highs at $1.5650, but failed to sustain gains above and now trades below it. Despite the political issues in Japan yen will be likely driven by the global risk sentiment these days. EUR/JPY is staying close to the opening price of 99.30 after hitting yesterday 2-week minimum at 98.74 yen. USD/JPY edged a bit higher after 2 days of declines staying in the 79.55 area, above support at 78.60. Equities in Asia managed to hold their ground: Japan’s Nikkei Stock, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 and South Korea’s Kospi rose by 0.46%, 0.74% and 0.06% respectively. As for EUR/USD, it’s just below magnetic $1.2500 level. Yields on Spanish and Italian bonds rose at short-term debt auctions on Tuesday, reflecting investors’ doubts about the ability of the EU leaders to come up with any breakthrough agreements on a forthcoming summit. The market needs rapid actions, but even if some key decisions will be made on a summit, their implementation takes time. European Council President Herman Van Rompuy on Tuesday released a report on a closer fiscal and banking union, planning a euro zone treasury that would issue common debt in the medium term. Meanwhile, the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, told German law makers yesterday that there would be no shared liability for debt "in her lifetime". With regard to Merkel’s inflexibility, Egan Jones, the small UK-based rating agency, downgraded Germany from AA- to A+ with negative outlook. Greece also should be kept in mind: Greek center of Planning and Economic Research (KEPE) expects the national economy to contract by 9.14% in Q3. As a result, some analysts claim that what we see today may be calm before the storm, so be prepared and don’t say we didn’t warn you. Events to watch today: Germany: Preliminary CPI in June is forecasted to remain unchanged after a 0.2% decline in May. US: A bunch of positive US data is expected to be released. Core durable goods orders, leading indicator of production, are expected to go up in May by 1.0% m/m compared with a 0.9% decline in April, what will be a positive sign for the economy. Durable goods orders (including transportation items) may increase by 0.5% after a remaining flat in the previous month. Pending home sales in May are to increase by 1.3% m/m vs. a 5.5% drop in April. However, the confidence in the stability of the US housing market is still weak. Japan: Retail sales in May are likely to increase by 3.1% y/y after a 5.7% growth in April. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-27/18092-june-27-economy-and-currencies

"MIG Bank: trading EUR/JPY"(2012-06-26) MIG Bank: trading EUR/JPY Currency analysts at MIG Bank note that EUR/JPY tried to recover from 95.56 (June 1 minimum). The specialists say that the individual outlook for the USD/JPY and EUR/USD shows that the prospects for EUR/JPY are negative. If the pair breaks below 98.54, then the levels around 100.95 will be regarded as lower maximums. According to the bank, it will be possible to say that the major minimum has been formed only if euro rises above 102.13 (May 22 maximum). In such case the single currency will get chance to rise to 104.62 (100-day MA) retracing decline from 111.43 (March 21 maximum). The bank proposed the following trading strategy: place sell limit at 100.05 targeting 99.05/95.50/90.00 and stopping at 101.05. Chart. Daily EUR/JPY Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-26/18090-mig-bank-trading-eurjpy

"USD/CAD: technical comments"(2012-06-26) USD/CAD: technical comments The USD/CAD pair trades sideways for a third consecutive day consolidating between 1.0250 and 1.0300. Today the greenback's trading on the downside. This week the Canadian dollar will depend on the news from euro zone and on the overall market sentiment, which are expected to be negative. In a short term analysts at BMO Capital forecast the cross to go up and to trade in a range of C$1.0250-C$1.0400. It makes sense to sell the Canadian dollar at current levels, targeting at C$1.0400 and with a stop at C$1.0200. On the other hand, the US modest recovery and the stable domestic situation may push the Canadian dollar up. On Friday GDP and raw materials price index releases may support the CAD – the forecasts are rather positive. If the pair breaks below the C$1.0240 support, a further decline to C$1.0200 and C$1.0160 will become likely. Support: 1.0240 (June 22 minimum); 1.0200 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement from a May rally); 1.0160 (June 20 minimum); 1.0123 (50% Fibonacci retracement); 1.0100 (psychological level). Resistance: 1.0292 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement); 1.0320 (June 25 maximum); 1.0382 (June 6 maximum); 1.0400 (psychological level); 1.0440/45 (June1, 4 maximum). Chart. H4 USD/CAD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-26/18088-usdcad-technical-comments

"Westpac: trading USD/JPY this week "(2012-06-26) Westpac: trading USD/JPY this week Japan will release CPI report on Thursday. According to consensus forecast, the nation’s core CPI may have risen by only 0.1% y/y in May or even stayed flat compared with the 0.2% y/y increase in April. Tokyo core CPI has been posting negative readings since the short respite last summer. Analysts at Westpac claim that if core CPI comes in stronger than expected, the Bank of Japan will leave policy unchanged. In this case it would be wise to sell USD/JPY. However, if consumer prices are lower than expected, one should do quite the opposite thing as the possibility of more easing from the BOJ will increase and yen will get under bearish pressure. Since the specialists think that the second outcome is more likely, they recommend buying the greenback on the upside breakout at 80.50 stopping at 79.70 and targeting 83.00. According to Westpac, “80.50-80.60 area is the top of a trend line, and if we break, it will break big.” Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-26/18084-westpac-trading-usdjpy-week

"Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD "(2012-06-26) Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD Technical analysts at Commerzbank expect the single currency to consolidate versus the greenback in the near term. In the longer run, however, the outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish. The specialists underline that euro failed to make a sustainable break above $1.2746, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire move seen this year, so its short uptrend is over. According to the bank, EUR/USD will slide below $1.2435 (June 8 minimum) to $1.2288 (June 1minimum). Commerzbank says that resistance for the pair lies at $1.2583/1.2610 (June 22 and 13 maximums) and $1.2746. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-26/18077-commerzbank-comments-eurusd

"Key options expiring today"(2012-06-26) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2450, $1.2500, $1.2525, $1.2675; USD/JPY: 79.25, 79.50, 80.00, 80.50; GBP/USD: 1.5600, 1.5650; AUD/USD: $0.9975, $1.0000, $1.0050, $1.0200; USD/CHF: 0.9650. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-06-26/18074-key-options-expiring-today

What is the secret of successful Forex trading?(2012-06-26)!!! FBS Demo-Contest “999” gladdens us with its diversity of participants, action and fierce struggle for victory month after month. Every time the leaders share their secrets of successful trading with pleasure and give beginners their advice. >>Gennady Karpov (I place)<< Q: How long have you been trading on Forex? How did you start your way of a Forex trader? A: I have been trading on Forex over 6 years already. I tried to earn in Internet in different ways: via clicks, registration and other stuff. For a long time I did not pay any attention to Forex trading advertisements, but finally I decided to try. I visited a broker's website, downloaded its trading terminal and opened a demo-account for 100 000 USD. I started my trading with USDJPY and opened my first order for 10 lots at once. In a half an hour I already earned 2000 USD! I realized that I found out a place where I could earn real money! Soon after that I opened a real cent account and made my first 10 USD deposit via WebMoney. I must say that I lost all this funds at once. This lesson taught me that there are no earnings without knowledge. I downloaded many books about Forex trading from Internet and studied it carefully. Only after that I started to earn stably. I still trade on Forex and earn for living here. Q:What currency pairs do you prefer to trade on? Why? A:I trade on EURUSD, NZDUSD, EURJPY, GBPJPY preferably. In my opinion these are the currency pairs with the highest volatility. I studied them a lot during the last years. Q:What are your impressions of participating in “999” FBS Demo-Contest? A:This is a great contest! The best thing in it is no restriction in trading! Many brokers make restrictions for order volume, number of orders, etc. I do not like it. The only thing I would suggest FBS is to abolish a restriction on 10 lots maximum order volume. This would be brilliant! For example, I was opening up to 500 lots at once and it was very tiresomely for me to open 50 orders and set Stop Loss and Take Profit for all of them. Q:What trading strategy did you use in “999” Demo-Contest?What helped you to take the right trading decisions? A:I tried a lot of strategies, but stopped on intuitive trading. Like Curtis Faith I consider intuitive trading the highest skill of a trader. Q:What characters a trader should have to become successful on Forex market in your opinion? A:Patience, presence of mind, discipline! Q:What would you advise new Forex traders? A:Good luck! If to say in Lenin style: Trade, trade and trade again! >>Stanislav Romkin (II place)<< Q:How long have you been trading on Forex? How did you start your way of a Forex trader? A:I am trading about a year. Once I got interested in Forex trading and decided to try my strength. Q:What currency pairs do you prefer to trade on? Why? A:I prefer pairs with GBP because I have been following it for a long time already. But I try to trade different trading pairs in whole. Q:What are your impressions of participating in “999” FBS Demo-Contest? A:“999” is a very good contest with a real competition! Q:What trading strategy did you use in “999” Demo-Contest?What helped you to take the right trading decisions? A:I use technical analysis generally, fundamental analysis I use only to identify a general market mood. Q:What characters a trader should have to become successful on Forex market in your opinion? A:Patience is the main character of a successful Forex trader! Q:What would you advise new Forex traders? A:Everything depends on you only! If you really want to become a prosperous Forex trader you will do it! >>Akhmadgon Akilov (III place)<< Q:How long have you been trading on Forex? How did you start your way of a Forex trader? A:I started in 2007. I was studying computer technologies and decided to find a remote job in Internet. After a long search I stopped on Forex as the perfect job for me. Q:What currency pairs do you prefer to trade on? Why? A:I prefer to trade EURUSD on real accounts . For “999” Demo-Contest I chose GBPJPY and EURJPY because they have high volatility. Q:What are your impressions of participating in “999” FBS Demo-Contest? A:I would like to thank FBS for running “999” Demo-Contest! I have only good impressions of it. I want to mark a good organization of the contest and its transparency. I could track the contest results online and work out my trading strategy. Trading strategy means a lot in contests. And this is very important to get the latest updates and know your rivals' results to build a good strategy. Q:What trading strategy did you use in “999” Demo-Contest?What helped you to take the right trading decisions? A:I took my trading decisions on the base of fundamental data and technical analysis (candles, fibonacci and moving average). Q:What characters a trader should have to become successful on Forex market in your opinion? A:You may become successful on Forex market when having a good trading strategy and discipline. Control your emotions and remain calm! Q:What would you advise new Forex traders? A:-Learn to use graphs, indicators and other trading tools properly. This will help you to choose a right time for order opening and closure. -Start with trainings on demo accounts. Improve your skills and learn to manage risks. Do not be afraid of taking a risk! Always start with a little on a Micro account. -Once having a good trading strategy, conform to it always. FBS wishes you Finance,Freedom and Success in trading! (Best mini Forex Broker of 2010 - 2011) FBS Fastest Growing Forex Broker Asia 2012 Stay connected with FBS because its all about you!