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"Key options expiring today"(2012-07-19) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2175, $1.2190, $1.2300, $1.2325, $1.2335, $1.2350, $1.2400; USD/JPY: 80.00; AUD/USD: $1.0195, $1.0300; GBP/USD: $1.5500, $1.5700; EUR/GBP: 0.8065. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-19/18349-key-options-expiring-today

July 19: economic & forex news (2012-07-19) July 19: economic & forex news The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) of shares added 1.5% yesterday. JPY rose against all but one of its 16 major peers amid concern no progress will be reached on the euro zone’s crisis, what will increase demand for a safe Japanese currency. USD weakens against the high-yielding currencies such as AUD, NZD and CAD. Mild weakness in the U.S. has been positive for risky currencies as the stimulus becomes more and more likely. Demand for risky assets was also supported as volatility for major currencies slid to the lowest since November 2007. GBP/USD strengthens on Thursday. Yesterday the pound dropped after the minutes of the BoE meeting this month showed the decision to keep its interest rate at a record low 0.5% was unanimous, while 7 members voted in favor of expanding the QE by a further 50 billion pounds. Although US dollar is broadly weakening, the single currency is even weaker. EUR/USD seems unable to overcome resistance at $1.2300. German lawmakers vote on a 100-billion euro bailout for Spanish banks (12:00 GMT). Angela Merkel will likely get the majority needed to for this piece of legislation to pass successfully. The sole euro-related data release is the publication of the region’s current account (08:00 GMT). The market’s attention will focus, though, on French and Spanish debt auctions (8:50-9:50 GMT). Euro is trading at record minimums vs. Aussie and kiwi and at more than 20-year minimums against loonie. In the US, as usual on Thursdays, watch for the jobless claims figures (12:30 GMT). In addition, there are 2 more important releases: existing home sales and Philly Fed manufacturing index (14:00 GMT). The Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke told lawmakers on Wednesday that it was "certainly possible" that the central bank could take new steps to support the economic recovery if the situation at the labor market doesn’t improve. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-19/18346-july-19-economic-forex-news

"GBP/USD: down on BoE minutes "(2012-07-18) GBP/USD: down on BoE minutes The bulls were pushing GBP/USD up for three consecutive days and the sterling nearly managed to overcome the resistance of the downward trend, existing since June. However, the pair returned to the channel today on the back of the important UK data releases and now trades close to the strong $1.5600 level. The BoE meeting minutes held on July 4-5 revealed the MPC voted unanimously in favor of maintaining the interest rate at 0.5%, while 7 members voted in favor of expanding the QE by a further £50 billion. According to analysts at ING, the increased support for additional QE means that it will possibly be expanded to £450 billion by the end of 2012. A new QE round is expected to weigh on the British currency. The unemployment rate in Britain unexpectedly declined to 8.1%. Commerzbank specialists expect GBP/USD’s growth to be limited on the upside by 55- and 200-day MA’s ($1.5685 and $1.5751). They forecast the pair to decline towards the $1.5407/1.5393 support area (June 8 and July 12 minimum). The next support lies at $1.5270/35 (2012 minimums). Chart. Daily GBP/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-18/18343-gbpusd-down-boe-minutes

"EUR/USD: comments & technical levels "(2012-07-18) EUR/USD: comments & technical levels The single currency had dropped from the levels in the $1.2270/2300 area to the day’s minimums around $1.2330. Euro fell on a media report that quoted German Chancellor Angela Merkel as saying she could not be sure the European project would work. The markets are turning risk-off. In addition, EUR finds itself under pressure after yesterday’s testimony of Ben Bernanke who refrained from discussing specific stimulus measures. The majority of the economists believe that today’s speech of the Fed’s Chairman will be quite similar to what we’ve heard on Tuesday. Support: $1.2188 (July 17 minimum), $1.2175 (July 16 minimum), $1.2163 (July 13 minimum) and 1.2151 (June 29, 2010, minimum). Resistance: $1.2317 (July 17 maximum), $1.2334 (July 10 maximum), $1.2365 (July 5 minimum) and $1.2400 (July 6 maximum). Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ: EUR/USD may slide to $1.2050 during a week from now as the hopes for more easing from the Fed will be gradually weakening. Resistance lies at $1.2450. Chart. H1 EUR/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-18/18337-eurusd-comments-technical-levels

"UBS: comments on forex majors "(2012-07-18) UBS: comments on forex majors EUR/USD: Euro won’t be able to sustain gains. The single currency will soon come under renewed negative pressure. As long as EUR/USD is trading under the key resistance of $1.2365, it’s vulnerable for a decline to $1.2163. GBP/USD: Resistance is at $1.5722, while support is found at $1.5554. USD/JPY: If the pair drops below 78.61, it will risk sliding to 77.99 ahead of 77.66. Resistance is at 79.39 and 80.10. USD/CHF: Resistance is at 0.9873. Above this level the greenback will head to 0.9951. Support lies at 0.9686. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-18/18329-citigroup-bullish-jpy-vs-eur-and-usd

"Key options expiring today"(2012-07-18) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2200, $1.2250, $1.2300, $1.2400 GBP/USD: $1.5425 EUR/GBP: 0.7865 USD/CHF: 0.9900 AUD/USD: $1.0200 Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-18/18327-key-options-expiring-today

July 18: economic & forex news (2012-07-18) July 18: economic & forex news There are 2 main blocs of data today: releases in the UK at 8:30 GMT (Claimant count change, MPC meeting minutes, unemployment rate) and in the US and Canada at 12:30 GMT (US building permits, housing starts and the Beige Book and BOC monetary policy report and press conference). The Beige Book survey of business conditions in 12 American districts is the most important publication as it will be closely studied for the signs of the deteriorating economic conditions in the US. The Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke will once again appear in front of US Congress later today. Investors generally think that US economy will need more easing. Analysts widely believe that QE3 will become more than likely in case of strong downside surprise to growth or the lingering softness in US labor market. Such attitude of the market is negative for the greenback. Demand for euro was limited before Germany’s lower-house lawmakers vote tomorrow on aid to recapitalize Spanish banks. Angela Merkel will likely get the majority needed to for this piece of legislation to pass successfully. EUR/USD briefly tested the levels above $1.2300, but didn’t manage to hold there. The Bank of Japan released minutes from its June 14-15 meeting. The policymakers agreed to monitor effect of asset-purchase program. Some of them warned that CPI main be flat longer than expected. USD/JPY is consolidating above 79 yen (H1). AUD/USD returned to July maximums around $1.0300 helped by better than expected Australia Westpac May leading index. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-18/18325-july-18-economic-forex-news

July 17: economic & forex news (2012-07-17) July 17: economic & forex news Ben Bernanke is once again the hero of the market’s expectations: investors expect to hear his hints on further monetary easing as he testifies to Congress today. It’s obvious that US economic recovery really is stumbling: data released yesterday showed that retail sales fell for a third month in June, contracting by 0.5%. The Fed’s chief is speaking in front of the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow. US dollar’s weakening versus the majority of its counterparts on the news. Also watch for US CPI data later today. Median forecast is that US CPI was unchanged last month from May when it declined by 0.3% (m/m). Annual inflation is seen sliding from 1.7% in May to 1.6% in June, below the Fed’s 2% medium-term target – another argument for more QE. EUR/USD trades on an upside for a third consecutive day ahead of the ZEW economic sentiment release. The release may show today that the index of German investor expectations slid to minus 20 this month (the lowest since January) from minus 16.9 in June. Moody’s rating agency downgraded 13 Italian banks tonight. The IMF has slightly lowered its outlook for global growth in latest report on the world economy. AUS/USD appreciates as the RBA meeting minutes released today made the new rate cuts less likely. The Australian policymakers reveal confidence in economy: national labor market looks stronger, China's economy wasn't slowing as much as previously anticipated and the overall mood in euro area seems to be better on the back of progress made by EU leaders late June. However, the euro zone’s debt woes still threaten the Australian economy. NZD/USD is up despite a CPI release (inflation in Q2 increased by 0.3%, what is below a forecasted 0.5% growth). The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) of shares advanced 0.6%. The overall market sentiment is positive ahead of Bernanke’s testimony: demand for USD and JPY vs. the other key currencies has dropped. USD/JPY strengthens after a three-day decline after touching the lowest since June 18 yesterday. According to Japan’s finance minister Jun Azumi, gains in the yen were “speculative” and officials will “take decisive action if needed.” Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-17/18309-july-17-economic-forex-news

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"Key options expiring today"(2012-07-16) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD - $1.2175, $1.2200, $1.2250, $1.2300, $1.2325, $1.2350 USD/JPY - Y79.25, Y79.70, Y80.00 GBP/USD - $1.5500, $1.5490, $1.5450 AUD/USD - $1.0150, $1.0165, $1.0190, $1.0300 EUR/AUD - A$1.2000 Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-13/18288-key-options-expiring-today

"Westpac: the Fed won’t signal easing "(2012-07-16) Westpac: the Fed won’t signal easing The Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is going to testify to the Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. Analysts at Westpac point out that Bernanke has said he is ready to take action as warranted, but so far he has been vague about what that means. If the Fed’s chief doesn’t signal that monetary stimulus is inevitable, the demand for riskier assets will fall. In this case the specialists recommend selling AUD/USD. On the other hand, if US central banker signals that there may be more easing, one should buy Aussie. Westpac thinks that the first outcome is more likely as the Fed may decide to wait for more reports on employment and, probably, Greek bond redemption before deciding on a course of action. As a result, the bank’s recommendation is to sell AUD/USD at $1.0250 targeting $1.0100 and stopping at $1.0330. Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-16/18299-westpac-fed-wont-signal-easing

July, 16: economy and currencies (2012-07-16) July, 16: economy and currencies On Monday the single currency remains close to a two-year low vs. the greenback ahead of today’s releases. European inflation is likely to stagnate, while consumer confidence – to weaken. According to the latest comments of Angela Merkel, Germany hasn’t changed her position about the austerity measures for the problem European nations. However, Merkel said she is confident the majority of German members of parliament will support aid package for Spain’s ailing banking sector. The MSCI Asia Pacific added 0.3% as Asian shares rose. Japan’s financial markets are closed for a holiday. Safe currencies benefit from a risk aversion as markets are expecting more easing from the world’s major central banks. Investors are looking forward to Ben Bernanke’s semi-annual report on US economic outlook to Congress tomorrow. Market participants will also pay special attention to today’s IMF growth forecasts. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-16/18295-july-16-economy-and-currencies

Monday, July 16: events to watch (2012-07-13) Monday, July 16: events to watch Japan: Bank holiday Euro area: CPI growth is to remain at 2.4% in June, while core CPI – at 1.6%. According to the ECB report, inflation rate will fall below the regulator’s 2% ceiling next year. US: Core retail sales are expected increase by 0.1% in June, what is much better than a 0.4% drop in May, but still points at the weakness of the US economy. Retail sales demonstrate the similar dynamics: 0.2% growth in June vs. a 0.2% decline in May. Weak figures will add to investor’s concerns about a new QE. Cartoon: jeffreyhill.typepad.com Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-13/18294-july-16-events-watch

"Key options expiring today"(2012-07-13) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2135, $1.2170, $1.2175, $1.2200 (large), $1.2235, $1.2300, $1.2350, $1.2375; USD/JPY: 79.00, 79.25, 79.75, 80.00; AUD/USD: $1.0000, $1.0100, $1.0195, $1.0200, $1.0220; AUD/JPY: 83.00; GBP/USD: $1.5500, $1.5650; EUR/GBP: 0.7900; USD/CAD: 1.0150. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-13/18288-key-options-expiring-today

"Analysts: trading EUR/USD"(2011-07-13) Analysts: trading EUR/USD Analysts at Commerzbank expect EUR/USD to decline to $1.2053 (200-month MA) after having reached $1.2187. According to specialists, the descending triangle figure paves the ground for a decline to $1.1934 and to $1.1876 (2010 minimum). Resistance for the pair lies at $1.2287 (June 1 minimum), $1.2367 (200-day MA) and $1.2475 (triangle support line). Strategists at Aspen Trading Group are also bearish on EUR/USD and recommend going short at $1.2150 with a stop at $1.2300 and a target of $1.1850. In their view, this level is close to fair value of the pair.The specialists claim that being bearish on euro is the best risk-off trade these days. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-13/18285-analysts-trading-eurusd

July 13: economy and currencies (2012-07-13) July 13: economy and currencies The markets were apathetic to China’s GDP release: everyone has already submitted to the fact that the growth pace of world’s fastest growing economy is slowing down. Even the consensus was dragged lower before the release from 7.9% to 7.7%. The data released today showed that Chinese GDP increased by 7.6% in Q2 after extending by 8.1% in the first 3 months of the year. Chinese industrial production and retail sales grew a bit less last month than in May, while the advance in fixed asset investment was slightly bigger. Investors are now much more preoccupied with what’s happening in Europe, particularly in Italy. The nation holds a 10-year bond auction. Overnight Moody's ratings agency downgraded Italy's government bond rating by two notches to Baa2 from A3. According to experts, Italy’s near-term economic outlook has worsened: weaker growth and higher unemployment creates risk of failure to meet fiscal consolidation targets. On Thursday, however, Italy raised 7.5 billion at a lower rate than previously, indicating improved investor confidence. US is to release PPI (forecast: a 0.5% decline in June), core PPI (forecast: a 0.3% growth in June) and preliminary UoM consumer sentiment index (expected to increase to 73.5 in July). Risky currencies are trading on the upside today, though they are set for the weekly declines due to the general pessimism. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares added 0.6% after falling by 0.2%. Analysts at Westpac underline that the growth momentum is still slowing down, though there may be more of a short squeeze in the currencies like Aussie in the near term. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-13/18283-july-13-economy-and-currencies

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"China's GDP is to disappoint markets"(2011-07-12) China's GDP is to disappoint markets China’s GPD release on Friday attracts investors’ attention as will define the risk sentiment and influence the commodity currencies. Most analysts expect the second largest economy in the world to grow below the expectations in Q2 (consensus: 7.9%; previous print: 8.1%). Experts at Development Research Centre expect China’s economy to grow by 7.5% in Q2. In the second half of 2012, however, the economy is likely to recover modestly as the monetary policy measures will bear fruit. China’s economy could grow around 8% in 2012. Specialists believe the world's second-largest economy is entering a phase of more modest expansion in comparison to the 10% annual average rate in the past three decades, but it could still maintain a 7-8% annual rate in the next 10 years. Still, any reading below 8% tomorrow will hit the market's risk sentiment. According to Barclays Capital forecasts, China’s June industrial production may exceed the 9.8% forecast, but this small positive result will be offset by the negative GPD surprise. In their view, the weaker-than expected GDP will hurt the Aussie. Chart. China's GDP (2003-2012) Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-12/18280-chinas-gdp-disappoint-markets

"EUR/USD: fundamental & technical"(2011-07-12) EUR/USD: fundamental & technical Fundamental - Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy announced yesterday 65 billion euro ($80 billion) of new austerity measures in a renewed effort to meet EU budget targets after the nation was granted another year to reduce the budget deficit. Now Spain has until 2014 to bring its deficit within the EU’s 3%. This is Spain’s fourth austerity package in 7 months and the new flashpoint for supports and the opposition. - Finland is in discussions to get shares in Spanish banks as collateral in exchange for its contribution to the bailout. - Euro zone May industrial output +0.6% m/m, -2.8% y/y, better than consensus forecast. - ECB monthly bulletin: heightened uncertainty, some downside risks to growth outlook have materialized. Spanish 10 year yields are up by 3 bps on day at 6.61%. Technical Strategists at RBS recommend selling EUR/USD up to $1.2290 (June minimum) targeting $1.1875 (2010 minimum) stopping above $1.2350 (the recent cluster of daily maximums). Analysts at UBS claim that key support for EUR/USD lies at $1.2152. If euro breaches this level, it will slide to $1.2000. Resistance lies at $1.2336 and $1.2402. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-12/18278-eurusd-fundamental-technical

"NAB: AUD/USD to fall below parity"(2011-07-12) NAB: AUD/USD to fall below parity Analysts at NAB expect AUD/USD to drop below parity by the end of 2012 on the back of the slowed global growth and lower prices on raw materials. Specialists devote considerable attention to weak economic releases coming from China lately. China’s slowed economic growth could pull AUD/USD to $0.97. According to CFTC report, traders remain in net short positions on AUD for six consecutive weeks (the longest stretch since 2009) as falling export prices raise concerns the RBA will cut rates further. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-12/18276-nab-audusd-fall-below-parity

"Barclays Capital: bearish on USD/JPY"(2011-07-12) Barclays Capital: bearish on USD/JPY Analysts at Barclays Capital are bearish on USD/JPY and recommend going short on the pair at 79.6, setting a stop at 80.0 and targeting at 78.0. In their view, slowed global growth and European woes are likely to push the Japanese currency up, while the BoJ is unlikely to extend the asset purchase program. However, improving risk sentiment and more aggressive BoJ easing could threaten the yen’s strength. Japan’s monetary authorities claim they are ready to loosen policy in order to reduce the deflationary pressure on the economy. Core consumer prices contracted for the first time in 4 months sliding by 0.1% y/y in May, while Tokyo core CPI fell by 0.6% in June – the BOJ’s 1%-inflation target seems like very hard to attain. http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/July2012/12_07_12/daily_usdjpy_11.07._13-13.gif[/img ] Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-12/18274-barclays-capital-bearish-usdjpy

"Commerzbank: forecast for GBP/USD"(2011-07-12) Commerzbank: forecast for GBP/USD Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that GBP/USD has recently completed consolidation. In their view, British currency will return to $1.5600 and then slide from this point firstly to $1.5403 (June 8 minimum) and eventually to $1.5268/33 (June 1 minimum and 2012 minimum) and then possibly to $1.5000/1.4990. According to the bank, resistance lies at $1.5593/1.5600 (June 25 maximum, June 7 peak) and $1.5750/85 (200-day, 200-week MAs, 50% Fibo retracement of the decline in May). Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-12/18272-commerzbank-forecast-gbpusd

"Aussie hit by poor jobs data"(2011-07-12) Aussie hit by poor jobs data Australian dollar dropped versus the greenback from the levels close to the 200-day MA breaching uptrend support line from the beginning of June. Aussie got hurt due to the discouraging Australian labor market data: the number of jobs contracted by 27K last month (vs. + 0.2K expected). Australian currency is also affected by the expectation of Chinese growth slowdown. China’s GDP is released tomorrow and its growth rate is forecasted to decline from 8.1% in the first 3 months of the year to 7.9% in Q2. Analysts at Westpac claim that Australian jobs report is “pretty horrible”. The specialists underlined that all jobs that were added were part-time and that’s a bad sign. Strategists at NAB, on the other hand, think that things as not as gloomy as they seem. In their view, the unemployment rate of 5.2% remains low by historical standards. The odds of another RBA rate cut increased, but such move in August still seems unlikely as Australia’s monetary authorities will like to watch for the effects of their recent rate cuts. The central bank cut rates in May and June to 3.5% and stayed on hold in July. AUD/USD set the daily minimum at $1.0135 and then recoiled up to $1.0150. Support lies at $1.0125 (June 28 maximum), $1.0090 and $1.0055. Resistance lies at $1.0200, $1.0225 and $1.0240. Chart. H4 AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-12/18270-aussie-hit-poor-jobs-data

Lightbulb "Key options expiring today"(2011-07-12) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2200, $1.2215, $1.2225, $1.2230 (large), $1.2400, $1.2550; USD/JPY: 78.75, 79.00, 79.85, 80.00; AUD/USD: $1.0200, $1.0350; EUR/AUD: 1.2065; EUR/GBP: 0.8020, 0.8030, 0.8070; NZD/USD: $0.8000. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-12/18267-key-options-expiring-today