internationallove

AUD/USD: technical comments (2012-07-30) AUD/USD: technical comments On Monday AUD/USD slid from a four-month high as the risk appetite worsened ahead of the euro zone’s reports on consumer confidence and unemployment. The pair rose confidently for three consecutive days and managed to test a strong resistance at $1.0475, completely offsetting the May decline. AUD/USD remains in a bullish channel since June. On the H4 chart the pair trades above the up-directed 200-, 100- and 50-period MAs. In our view, a medium-term uptrend looks rather resilient: if the bulls manage to fix above $1.0475, a further advance to $1.0855 will become possible. On a downside, a break below the 200-day MA ($1.0280) will pave the ground for a further decline to $1.0176 (July 25 minimum) and to $1.0100 (July 12 minimum). Resistance: $1.0473 (April maximum); $1.0557 (March 27 maximum); $1.0635 (March 19 maximum); $1.0750/60 (Sep. and Oct. 2011 maximums); $1.0855 (2012 maximum) Support: $1.0348 (50-period MA on the H4 chart); $1.0280 (200-day MA); $1.0283 (100-period MA on the H4 chart); $1.0200 (200-period MA on the H4 chart); $1.0191 (100-day MA); $1.0100 (July 12 minimum); $1.0083 (50-day MA); $0.9968 (June 22 minimum); $0.9579 (June 1 minimum) Chart. Daily AUD/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-30/18506-audusd-technical-comments

CFTC trader positioning data (2012-07-30) CFTC trader positioning data The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday, July 20 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that on a week ended July 24: Net long US dollar positions decreased to $19.8 billion (-23%), while net long yen positions surged to $4 billion (+128%) on the back of negative US data. The value of the euro net short positions declined to $ 23.4 billion. (-9%). The single currency fell to its lowest level since June 2010 but then bounced back as the euro shorts shrank. Investors expect the Swiss franc to deppreciate: net short positions rose to $3.3 billion (+10%). On the previous week the Aussie and the kiwi net longs increased. Net short positions on the loonie moved up, while on the pound - declined. It’s necessary to note that the figures cited above are always a week old at the time of their release. Never the less, CFTC data gives a good oversight into how the market is positioned and if/how these positions are being unwound. Although the CME speculators represent a small fraction of trading in the currency markets, their trades are widely seen as typical of hedge fund investors' currency movements. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-30/18503-cftc-trader-positioning-data

July 30: forex news (2012-07-30) July 30: forex news The market was rather quiet during today’s Asian session; the major pairs were going through consolidation. Investors’ attention will be focused on peripheral euro zone nations: Spanish flash Q2 GDP is released at 07:00 GMT (prev.: -0.3%, cons.: -0.4%). Later in the day Italy plans to sell 5.5 billion euro in long-term debt, including 10-year bonds. Current Italian 10-year bond yield is below 6% at 5.96%. Bloomberg reports that the European Commission will publish today household sentiment which may have dropped in July to almost 3-year minimum. In addition, euro is under pressure before data tomorrow may show that the region’s unemployment increased to a new record of 11.2% in June. The ECB President Mario Draghi meets US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner today, though no press conference will follow. Moody’s Investors Service warned that the ECB can’t resolve the debt crisis alone. EUR/USD is trading in the $1.2292 area, about 100 pips below Friday’s peak. US dollar edged up against higher-yielding currencies, though demand for it is limited before the Fed’s 2-day meeting which starts on Tuesday. USD/JPY returned to 78.35 after testing the levels above 78.60 at the end of last week. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-30/18498-july-30-forex-news

WEEK AHEAD: central banks (2012-07-27) WEEK AHEAD: central banks Next week is tightly packed with central banks’ meetings: we have the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, the ECB and the Bank of England on Thursday. It’s not hard to imagine that the policymakers are now racking their brains trying to come up with some new ideas of how to support national economies and promote lending. That seems like a really difficult task now when they’ve already used many of their conventional and unconventional tools. Last time the Fed extended Operation Twist program to the end of 2012, the ECB cut its benchmark rate to a record minimum of 0.75% and the BoE increased asset purchases to reignite growth after boosting them by 50 billion pounds ($77.4 billion). The problem is that although low interest rates and liquidity injections which have been in place during the last few years, the economies didn’t return to sustainable recoveries. The banks are still reluctant to lend and the experts are concerned that further increases of the same measures may be even less efficient. So, that tools do the central banks have now? The Fed’s options: - Extend its assurance that interest rates will be kept “exceptionally low” from late 2014 into the middle of 2015. - Launch another round of QE (Credit Suisse thinks the possibility of QE3 announced next week is 1 in 3, while the odds of QE in September are almost 2 in 3). - Buy home mortgage securities rather than or together with Treasuries. - Cut the 0.25% interest rate it pays commercial banks on reserves: banks have parked around $1.6 trillion of excess reserves at the central bank as it allows them to earn 0.25%. If the rate is cut, this will encourage the lenders to turn to consumers. If the Fed engages in a minor action (most likely) like the latter it will buy time to assess the state of domestic economy. The ECB’s options: - Reiterate openness to further rate cuts. - Reduce benchmark interest rate. - Lower the deposits rate from 0 to minus 0.25% to encourage banks to use the money for more productive purposes. Lower interest rates may induce banks to stop lending to each other because the returns are no longer large enough to cover transaction costs. - Launch another round of LTRO. - Reveal its forecasts for future direction of interest rates. - Lowering bank reserve requirements. - Broaden the collateral it accepts when making emergency loans. - Revive program of buying bonds. - Provide partial guarantee for all euro-area debt or cap bond yields. - Give banking license to the ESM. Last month the ECB last month lowered the minimum rating threshold for mortgage-backed securities to BBB- from A-, offering support for Spanish banks in particular which had been unable to use some securities for loans. The central bank’s President Mario Draghi said on July 26 that the ECB would “do whatever it takes to preserve the euro” and added, “believe me, it will be enough.” Such statements ahead of the meeting make the markets expect much. The BOE’s options: - Make another increase of asset purchases. - Cut benchmark rate from 0.5%. A rate cut still seems unlikely as last month all 9 MPC members voted in favor of keeping base rate unchanged. QE may be extended further once the current 50 billion of purchases are completed in November. Note that the BoE has already done something interesting. The central bank along with the UK Treasury has designed funding for lending program which implies rewarding new lending with access to cheaper financing. The program will be in place from August. All in all, we don’t expect the central banks to announce serious changes of their policies new week, though the ECB may be forced to make a move in order to calm European debt markets. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-27/18495-week-ahead-central-banks

WEEK AHEAD: July 30 – August 3 (2012-07-27) WEEK AHEAD: July 30 – August 3 Are you ready for the next week’s trade? It promised to be quite… interesting for the lack of a better word. Monday, July 30 Greece: Another meeting of Greek authorities and the Troika Officials. The parties have already agreed that Greece is going to make about 10 of the 11.5 billion euro in cuts that the Troika is demanding over the next 2 years. Spain: GDP q/q – Spanish economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1. The Bank of Spain is looking forward to 0.4% GDP decline in Q2. The nation has to pay bond redemptions totaling 12.9 billion euro. Spanish 10-year yields rose to the record high of more than 7.5% on the week July 23-27. Italy: 10-year bond auction. Italian 10-year yields were above 6% on the week July 23-27. UK: Watch for consumer borrowing and mortgage approvals – the data will likely be weak. CBI reports on retail sales in July may show some improvement from June due to better weather, but no strong rise is expected soon. British consumers will likely remain pessimistic. Tuesday, July 31 New Zealand: NBNZ business confidence. In June a net 12.6% of respondents expected conditions to improve over the next 12 months. The index has been declining from a peak of 35.8 in April. Now July data is on the agenda. Euro area: Conclusion of the second phase of Spain’s bank-sector review. Euro-area flash July inflation data. The region’s unemployment rate may have risen last month to new record maximum of 11.2% after reaching 11.1% in May. In addition, Italian parliament is to ratify European Stability Mechanism (ESM) by this date. Canada: GDP may add 0.2% m/m in May after stronger than expected 0.3% increase in April as retail sales in May added 0.7%, manufacturing sales rose by 0.2% and the volume of wholesale trade increased by 0.4%. US: CB Consumer confidence is probably low and that households may be spending less than they are earning. Wednesday, August 1 China: Official manufacturing PMI – the data may show that in July the index returned to the May’s level of 50.4 after sliding to 50.2 in June. Note that China’s HSBC PMI rose 48.2 in June to 49.5 in July. Euro-zone: July manufacturing PMIs – both the previous readings and the forecasts are well below the critical level of 50 that means contraction of the industry. UK: July manufacturing PMI – the figures are better than in Europe, but still the reading is expected to remain below 50. US: ISM report might show that manufacturing has contracted in July for the second month in a row. Don’t miss ADP non-farm employment change. (!) The Federal Reserve’s meeting. Thursday, August 2 Australia: The pace of retail sales’ growth may have slightly increased in June, while the nation’s trade balance probably deteriorated with deficit rising from 0.29 billion Australian dollars in May to 0.38 billion last month. UK: Construction PMI – there may be a minor advance, but still the reading is expected to remain below 50. (!) Bank of England’s meeting: decisions on Asset Purchase Facility and Official Bank Rate. MPC rate statement. Euro area: (!) ECB rate decision and press conference. Spanish bond auction. Friday, August 3 Euro area: July services PMI data. Spain’s last regular cabinet meeting before summer break. Retail sales in the region may be some 1.5% down y/y (+0.2% m/m). UK: Services PMI – consensus forecast tells to expect an increase from 51.3 in June to 51.9 in July. US: NFP report could show a third successive month in which non-farm payrolls have risen less than 100K, suggesting the economy isn’t creating enough jobs to reduce unemployment. The unemployment rate is seen staying at 8.2%. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI may have increased from 52.1 in June to 52.6 in July. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-27/18494-week-ahead-july-30-august-3

July 27: forex news (2012-07-27) July 27: forex news Investors’ sentiment improved, MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 1.6% today, while S&P 500 rose by 1.7% yesterday. High-yielding currencies like Aussie and kiwi are trading on the upside. EUR/USD edged slightly higher, but its rate little changed during the Asian session and the pair’s hovering below resistance at $1.2300 which has stopped its advance yesterday. Spanish 10-year yields subsided on Thursday by 45 bps to 6.95%. In Japan core CPI fell by 0.2% in June y/y (cons.: 0.0%). Tokyo core CPI, as expected, declined by 0.6% in July. The data shows that the nation is struggling to defeat deflation and the odds are that Japanese monetary authorities will do more monetary stimulus. Yen went lower against most of its major peers. USD/JPY remains trapped in the 78.30/00 area. The day of US GDP has finally come. Advance data for Q2 q/q are released at 12:30 GMT (Prev.: 1.9%, cons.: 1.5%) – this is surely the key publication of the day. The market’s speculating that the Fed may start QE3, so the greenback weakened versus the majority of its counterparts this week. Also watch for German prelim CPI m/m during the European morning and Spanish unemployment figures at 07:00 GMT. Italy will try to sell up to 8.5 billion euro in 6-month bills. Italian 10-year yield eased down to 6.04%. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-27/18477-july-27-forex-news

"USD/CAD: comments from Credit Agricole, TD "(2012-07-26) USD/CAD: comments from Credit Agricole, TD Credit Agricole: in the near term USD/CAD will keep trading sideways between 1.0250 and 1.0065 given the Bank of Canada’s tightening bias on the one hand and no clear resolution on the euro zone crisis and slower growth in the US on the other. TD Securities: USD/CAD failed to deliver on the bull flag formation. The pair may still be consolidating after advance in May/June. As a result, the move higher may eventually resume: the bulls need to break above the channel resistance around 1.0270. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-26/18473-usdcad-comments-credit-agricole-td

"EUR/JPY: short-term technical "(2012-07-26) EUR/JPY: short-term technical EUR/JPY has hit 12-year minimum this week at 94.10 on concerns about Greece and Spain. Japanese currency remains strong despite comments and threats of Japan’s monetary authorities. Risk appetite remains lackluster, so yen will likely continue being investors’ refuge. Some analysts say the level of 94.00 yen may be a kind of a threshold eyed by the Bank of Japan as it’s said about the 78.00 mark for USD/JPY. At the same time, EUR/JPY remains within a clear downtrend and the negative bias here is much stronger than in USD/JPY taking into account the persistent euro zone’s problems. All in all, you may try small shorts below 95.20 as the EUR/JPY will likely revisit the recent lows. Resistance: 95.20 (yesterday’s maximum), 95.40 (Friday’s closing level) and the 95.80 area (200-hour MA). Support: 94.65 (50-hour MA), 94.40 and 94.10 (see the chart below). Chart. H1 EUR/JPY Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-26/18470-eurjpy-short-term-technical

"Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD"(2012-07-26) Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD GBP/USD trades on a downside for a second day. The sentiment surrounding the sterling remains anxious: the pair remains under pressure mainly after yesterday’s negative UK GDP release. The data could encourage the BoE to ease monetary policy further, weighing on the British currency. According to technical analysts at Commerzbank, a recent failure to overcome the $1.5736/85 resistance area is likely to bring GBP/USD down to $1.5392 and then to $1.5267. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-26/18469-commerzbank-comments-gbpusd

"USD/JPY: technical update "(2012-07-26) USD/JPY: technical update The outlook for USD/JPY is neutral on the H1 chart where the greenback’s fluctuating in narrow range of 78.00/30 and negative on H4 chart where we the pair remains inside descending channel. The pair will likely stay above 78.00 helped by demand from Japanese importers below this point at the risk of the BOJ intervention. At the same time, from the technical point of view, the next major support is only at 77.65 (June minimum). The bulls will take over the initiative once USD/JPY managed to return above 200-day MA above 79.00. Resistance: 78.27 (yesterday’s maximum), 78.45 (July 20 minimum), 78.80 (July 20 maximum), 79.00. Support: 78.00, 77.65 (June minimum), 77.35 (February 14 minimum, January 6 and 19 maximums). Chart. Daily USD/JPY Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-26/18465-usdjpy-technical-update

"Westpac: outlook for AUD/USD"(2012-07-26) Westpac: outlook for AUD/USD According to analysts at Westpac, AUD/USD is unlikely to breach the $1.0350-1.0400 area without Fed or ECB intervention. Specialists, however, note the resilience of demand for the Aussie this month. In their view, in a near term $1.0400 levels look a little bit pricey for the pair. They expect AUD/USD to return to similar levels no later than Q4. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-26/18467-westpac-outlook-audusd

"AUD/USD: technical comments"(2012-07-26) AUD/USD: technical comments On Thursday AUD/USD trades above $1.0300, demonstrating growth for a second consecutive day. As can be seen from the daily chart, today the pair trades close to the lower boundary of an upward channel existing since June. Yesterday the bulls managed to fix above an important 200-day MA. On the H4 chart the pair trades close above the up-directed 200-, 100- and 50-period MAs. Resistance: $1.0400; $1.0443 (July 19 maximum); $1.0450 (April 12-13 double top); $1.0473 (April maximum); $1.0500; $1.0557 (March 27 maximum); $1.0635 (March 19 maximum); $1.0750/60 (Sep. and Oct. 2011 maximums); $1.0855 (2012 maximum) Support: $1.0300/10 (psychological and 50-period MA on the H4 chart); $1.0280 (200-day MA); $1.0264 (100-period MA on the H4 chart); $1.0200 (psychological and a 100-day MA); $1.0168 (200-period MA on the H4 chart); $1.0100 (July 12 minimum); $1.0057 (50-day MA); $0.9968 (June 22 minimum); $0.9579 (June 1 minimum) In our view, a medium-term uptrend looks rather resilient: further advance of the Aussie may lead AUD/USD to $1.0443 (July maximum) and $1.0473 (April maximum). On a downside, a break below the 200-day MA ($1.0280) wi Chart. Daily AUD/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-26/18463-audusd-technical-comments

"EUR/USD: consolidating within downtrend "(2012-07-26) EUR/USD: consolidating within downtrend EUR/USD is consolidating in the $1.2130/65 area after yesterday it gained about 80 pips on the ECB’s Nowonty comments about the possibility of giving a banking license to the ESM. Spanish 10-year government bond yields declined from the record highs around 7.75% to the levels near 7.38%. Analysts at Credit Agricole think that any bounce of the single currency will be short-lived. “The ECB is still quite divided on the issue of giving the ESM a banking license”, say the specialists. At the same time, the bank underlines that the single currency will be supported ahead of the Fed’s meeting next week (August 1) on the talk that US central bank may take some easing steps. Speculation about the possibility of such action will strengthen if weak US Q2 GDP is released on Friday. Don’t forget, however, that the central bank extended Operation Twist in June to the end of 2012. Support: $1.2130 (today’s minimums, Monday’s highs, 100-hour MA), $1.2065 (Monday’s minimum), $1.2040 (2-year minimum hit on Tuesday). Resistance: $1.2165 (yesterday’s maximums/July 12/23 minimums), $1.2180/90 (July 16, 17 minimums). Chart. H1 EUR/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-26/18461-eurusd-consolidating-within-downtrend

July 26: economy & currencies (2012-07-26) July 26: economy & currencies EUR/USD is consolidating in the $1.2120/65 area after yesterday’s jerk up as the ECB’s Nowotny suggested the ESM might get a banking license. The market’s attention will be focused on Mario Draghi’s speech in a panel discussion in London along with the Bank of England’s governor King – investors will look for Draghi’s reaction on Nowotny’s comments. Germany Gfk сonsumer сonfidence slightly rose from 5.8 in June to 5.9 in July, while the nation’s import prices declined in June by1.5% (vs. –o.6% expected). The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) of stocks advanced 0.4%, capping four days of decline. The high-yielding currencies strengthen on the back of the improved risk appetite and as the U.S. data on Friday may show growth slowed in the world’s largest economy. NZD/USD rose after the RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard left benchmark interest rates on hold at 2.50% and said the economy should grow “modestly.” AUD/USD strengthens for a second consecutive days and trades above $1.3000, while USD/JPY demonstrates a modest growth after the safe Japanese currency strengthened for 6 consecutive days. There are plenty of data released today: EU M3 and Italian retail sales at 08:00 GMT, US core durable goods and unemployment claims at 12:30 GMT, and US pending home sales at 14:00 GMT. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-26/18459-july-26-economy-currencies

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"Analysts on BOJ intervention risk "(2012-07-24) GBP/USD ahead of UK GDP Photo: Reuters On Wednesday UK will release preliminary Q2 GDP figures. Data are expected to confirm the fears that the UK still remains in recession: according to consensus forecast, British economy may have fallen by 0.2% (q/q). This would be the third successive quarterly fall, and would mean that GDP is lower now than it was in the third quarter of 2010 and 3.9% below its pre-recession peak. Chart. UK GPP (2001-2012) Source: Forex Factory According to analysts at Commerzbank, the figures have already been priced in, so the market is not likely to move dramatically. Strategists expect GBP/USD to test $1.53 in the next 2-3 weeks. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-24/18425-gbpusd-ahead-uk-gdp

"Analysts on BOJ intervention risk "(2012-07-24) Analysts on BOJ intervention risk Economists argue that the Bank of Japan might want to avoid USD/JPY returning to the range of 76-78 yen within which it was trading in the second half of 2011. Japanese officials have made a lot of comments speaking about their readiness to act counter volatile moves in the national currency. Yet, as it always is with Japan, it’s very difficult to judge the real intentions of the policymakers. Here’s what the analysts think. Barclays Capital: “We see the increased chance of JPY selling intervention by the Japanese authorities, or at least verbal intervention with a tougher tone below 78 yen.” MIG Bank: The BOJ may intervene if USD/JPY slides below 77.65. Citibank: The market has become very used to such threats of “decisive steps”. Our basis view is that intervention may not come until the dollar falls below 75 yen. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-24/18422-analysts-boj-intervention-risk

"GBP/USD: technical comments"(2012-07-24) GBP/USD: technical comments On Tuesday GBP/USD consolidates at $1.5500 level after an intense drop on Friday and Monday. As can be seen from the daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways since June after trading in a bearish channel in May. The pair trades close to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from a May decline and far below the 55-, 100- and 200-day MAs. On the H4 chart MAs met at $1.5584, creating a strong resistance. Support: $1.5486 (July 23 minimum); $1.5460 (July 6 minimum); $1.5400 (July minimums); $1.5392 (July 12 minimum); $1.5320 (June 5 minimum); $1.5267 (June 1 minimum); $1.5233 (2012 minimum). Resistance: $1.5584 (MAs on the H4 chart); $1.5596 (50-day MA); $1.5626 (July 23 maximum); $1.5661 (38.2% Fib. retracement); $1.5736 (July 19 maximum), $1.5747 (200-day MA), $1.5777/88 (June 20 maximum, 50% Fib. retracement and a 100-day MA). In our view, a close below $1.5392 (July 12 minimum) could trigger a drop to $1.5267/33 (June and 2012 minimums). If the pair manages to overcome a strong resistance at $1.5584 (MAs on the H4 chart), an increase to $1.5746/88 resistance area will become possible. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-24/18420-gbpusd-technical-comments

"EUR/USD: technical & fundamental update"(2012-07-24) EUR/USD: technical & fundamental update Fundamental news: Spain sold 1.63 billion euro of 3-month bills and 1.42 billion euro of 6-month bills – that’s just over 3-billion target. The yields were slightly higher. Euro zone flash PMIs for July were softer than expected. The region’s manufacturing PMI fell to the lowest level since June 2009. Support: $1.2065 (yesterday’s minimum), $1.2045 (June 11, 2010, minimum), $1.2028 (April 3, 2006, minimum), $1.2008 (June 8, 2010, maximum), $1.1972/91 (trend line support connecting the November 2005 minimum at $1.1635 and June 2010 minimum at $1.1876) and $1.1876 (June 7, 2010, minimum). Resistance: $1.2144 (Friday’s minimum), $1.2162 (July 13 minimum), $1.2175 (July 16 minimum), $1.2250 (down channel), $1.2325 (last week’s maximum). Commerzbank: EUR/USD will slide to $1.2053 (200-month moving average) and consolidate there for some time before sliding to $1.1934 (downside measured target from the symmetrical triangle). Chart. H1 EUR/USD Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-24/18417-eurusd-technical-fundamental-update

July 24: economy and currencies (2012-07-24) July 24: economy and currencies EUR/USD consolidated below Friday’s minimum at $1.2144. Yesterday the pair renewed 2-year minimum at $1.2065 on concerns about Greece and Spain. Moody’s Investors Service changed credit outlook for Germany and the Netherlands to negative. There’s a bunch of PMIs released in Europe today. At the same time, the market’s attention will likely remain focused on Spain which will offer 3- and 6-month bills. Yesterday Spanish 10-year yields rose to the records of 7.5%. The Netherlands will sell today debt maturing in 2014 and 2028. Troika officials arrive in Athens today amid doubts that Greece will meet commitments required for bailout funding. EUR/JPY remains close to 11-year minimum at 94.23 hit on Monday. Aussie, kiwi and loonie gain on Tuesday after a two-day drop. Risk sentiment improved after HSBC flash manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 in July from 48.2, bolstering the export prospects for the South Pacific nations. However, the demand on the high-yielding currencies is still limited ahead of the Spanish auction and euro area PMIs. In a speech today the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens sought to ease concern his nation is vulnerable to shocks from China, a domestic housing slump and global financial stress, saying it remains a “lucky country” with a favorable outlook. Demand for Aussie and kiwi is supported against the yen amid speculation the BoJ will act to weaken the nation’s currency. Finance Minister Azumi said the yen’s gain is one- sided and doesn’t reflect economic fundamentals. USD/JPY declines for a fifth consecutive day. British pound also strengthens on Tuesday, driven by the market sentiment. Events to watch: Euro area: PMIs. A gauge for manufacturing in the currency bloc is estimated to be at 45.3 in July. That’s below the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction and compares with a reading of 45.1 last month. Canada: Retail sales. Data release may cheer the investors up a little bit: according to forecasts, core retail sales increased by 0.2% m/m in May vs. a decline by 0.3% in April, while retail sales - to grow by 0.3% vs. a previous 0.5% drop. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-24/18413-july-24-economy-and-currencies

CFTC trader positioning data (2012-07-23) CFTC trader positioning data The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday, July 20 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that on a week ended July 17: The US dollar long positions increased to $25.8 billion on July 17 from a total long position of $24.58 billion on July 10, while the net short euro positions rose to 167.2K contracts from the previous week’s total of 166K net short contracts. Investors increased bets the Japanese currency will strengthen: the net long yen positions edged higher to 11.1K contracts following a total of 8.9K net long contracts the previous week. The British pound is still unpopular among the speculators: the net short pound positions declined by 1.3% this week. The net short Swiss franc positions increased to 23K contracts following 17.5K net short contracts the previous week. Investors continued to bet that the Australian and New Zealand dollars will rise, with net long positions totaling $1.4 billion and $554 million, respectively. But the market changed its view on the Canadian dollar, now expecting the currency to fall, with a net $119 million wagered. It’s necessary to note that the figures cited above are always a week old at the time of their release. Never the less, CFTC data gives a good oversight into how the market is positioned and if/how these positions are being unwound. Although the CME speculators represent a small fraction of trading in the currency markets, their trades are widely seen as typical of hedge fund investors' currency movements. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-05/16791-cftc-trader-positioning-data

July 23: economic & forex news (2012-07-23) July 23: economic & forex news The markets are in the risk-off mode amid the concerns that the European debt crisis is escalating. Asian shares are down. The greenback and Japanese yen have strengthened vs. the majority of their counterparts as the possibility of Greece’s leaving the euro area is getting higher and higher. EUR/USD opened the week with almost 40-pip gap down touching fresh 2-year minimum at $1.2106. EUR/JPY hit 11-month minimum at 94.60 yen. The sole data release today in Europe is the euro zone’s consumer confidence published at 14:00 GMT. According to the forecasts, the index will remain close to 3-month low. As for the debt auctions, Germany will offer short-term debt 06:00 GMT and France – at 10:50 GMT. Investors are more worried about tomorrow as Spain will auction 3- and 6-month bills. Spanish 10-year yields stay at the record maximums, above the critical level of 7%. Note that demand for US dollar as everyone awaits US Q2 GDP figures on Friday. Economists expect American economy to add only 1.5% (q/q), showing the slowest growth pace since June 2011. Weak data will increase the odds of QE3, dollar-negative factor. Taking into account such prospects, yen may by the best performer in the coming months. Elsewhere, Australian PPI rose by 0.5% in Q2 (vs. +0.3% expected). Japanese monetary authorities do their usual comments about their readiness to act with easing, but nothing more. Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-23/18393-july-23-economic-forex-news

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Der Spiegel: Greece may fail in September (2012-07-23) Der Spiegel: Greece may fail in September Der Spiegel reports citing unnamed senior EU sources in Brussels that the IMF wants to stop providing financial aid to Greece as soon as the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) starts functioning in September. According to Der Spiegel, Greece could become bankrupt as early as in autumn. It’s clear that Greek government won’t be able to bring down its debt load to about 120% of GDP by 2020. The Troika estimates show that that giving Greece more time to achieve its goals would cost additional 10-50 billion euro. However, many European economies are reluctant to pay for their troubled neighbor. In addition, countries like the Netherlands and Finland were providing as the IMF was involved. The Troika officials will soon go to Athens to see whether Greece is doing enough to comply with the terms of its second international bailout and merit receiving the next tranche of funds. Last week Greek politicians were unable to reach agreement pushed back talks on cutting budget by almost 12 billion euros ($14.6 billion). The ECB adds pressure: on Friday the central bank said that it will no longer accept Greek bonds as collateral in return for funding, at least until the positive report of the Troika. On Saturday German foreign minister Guido Westerwelle ruled out the possibility of relaxing the conditions of Athens’ second bailout. It seems that the EU and the IMF are finally ready to pull the plug on Greece. Euro zone’s nations think that the currency union would survive Greece’s exit. The ESM is meant to stop contagion in this case. German constitutional court delivers its verdict on the mechanism on September 12. Grece. The impending doom. Photo from minority-opinion.com Have a profitable trading day with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article! The archive of market news and analytic is available here Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-07-23/18391-der-spiegel-greece-may-fail-september

FBS congratulates you on the start of Ramadan(2012-07-20)!!! FBS congratulates all its Muslim clients with a holy month of Ramadan! We wish you and your families good health, prosperity and happiness! FBS wishes you Finance,Freedom and Success in trading! (Best mini Forex Broker of 2010 - 2011) FBS Fastest Growing Forex Broker Asia 2012 Stay connected with FBS because its all about you!