internationallove

"Commerzbank: bears on AUD/USD" (2012-08-10) Commerzbank: bears on AUD/USD Commerzbank analysts expect AUD/USD to drop to $1.0300 levels (lower boundary of the upward channel and the 200-day MA) after the pair failed to fix above $1.0583 (78.6% Fib of a decline from February). Close above $1.0583 would open way to $1.0670 levels, though it is not expected. Chart. H4 AUD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/18724-commerzbank-bearish-audusd

"JPMorgan: bears on NZD/CAD" (2012-08-10) JPMorgan: bears on NZD/CAD On Friday NZD/CAD dropped to 0.8030 levels, demonstrating a four-day decline. The cross broke below the 200-day MA and the uptrend line that connects the lows on May 23 and July 25. According to specialists at JPMorgan, after breaking these important support levels NZD/CAD may fall to 0.7981. Chart. Daily NZD/CAD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-10/18722-jpmorgan-bears-nzdcad

"EUR/USD: technical update" (2012-08-10) EUR/USD: technical update EUR/USD is now trading within a kind of uptrend which started to manifest itself from late July. The pair moved up with 1 or 2 strong pushes which came by the end of the week and then drifted lower. Among the fundamental drivers were Draghi’s promises (July 26) and good NFP (August 3). The pair has good support around $1.2260 (former downtrend resistance, close to the recent uptrend support line and 100-period MA on H4 chart). 50-period MA is getting ready to intersect the 200-period one bottom-up (H4) – bullish signal. The level itself ($1.2325) acts as resistance. There’s more of resistance at the daily chart (50-day MA at $1.2400). Also note that there may be quite many sell stops set below $1.2240. Analysts at Commerzbank think that the recent move higher was an ‘a-b-c’ correction (Elliott Wave Theory). In their view, if EUR/USD goes under $1.2214, it will slide to $1.2042 (July minimum) and then to $1.1876 (2010 minimum). Chart. H4 EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-10/18720-eurusd-technical-update

"AUD/USD fell on China's data" (2012-08-10) AUD/USD fell on China's data AUD/USD slid from a four-month high at $1.0612 to $1.0520 levels on the back of the RBA statement and negative China’s trade balance data. Narrowed trade surplus of the second largest world economy revived talks of China’s "hard landing" and sapped demand for high-yielding assets. As can be seen from the daily chart, AUD/USD shifted to the upper half of the upward channel, existing since June. In a medium term we expect the bullish trend to continue. However, in a near term the pair has potential to drop to $1.0475 (April 27 maximum) and to $1.0445 (July 19 maximum) support levels. On the upside resistance lies at $1.0556 (March 27 maximum), $1.0612 and at $1.0636 (March 19 maximum). The pair repulsed from a resistance line, connecting July 2011 and February 2012 maximums. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-10/18718-audusd-fell-chinas-data

"Key options expiring today" (2012-08-10) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2200, $1.2400, $1.2425, $1.2450; GBP/USD: $1.5825; USD/JPY: 77.50, 78.50, 79.00, 79.50, 80.00; AUD/USD: $1.0350, $1.0550; EUR/GBP: 0.7875. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-10/18716-key-options-expiring-today

"AUD/USD: slowed growth" (2012-08-09) AUD/USD: slowed growth AUD/USD remains close to the top of the upward channel. Today the pair opened a new high at $1.0612, but then once more slid below the strong $1.0600 level. The pair has been consolidating at current levels for four days. On the H4 chart we can see a bullish MACD divergence. However, we expect the bullish trend to continue until there is a clearer sign of a trend reversal. Next resistance lies at $1.0636 (March 19 maximum) and at $1.0670 (March 8 maximum). Support is seen at $1.0529 (August 8 minimum) and at $1.0475 (beginning of a downtrend). Chart. H4 AUD/USD Chart. Daily AUD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/1970-01-01/18708-audusd-slowed-growth

"USD/CHF: bulls vs. bears" (2012-08-09) USD/CHF: bulls vs. bears US dollar bulls don’t let USD/CHF reverse down despite the ‘head and shoulders’ pattern formed on the daily chart. The pair tested the levels below the 1-year support line, but recoiled up from the 50-day MA. At the same time, there’s resistance around 0.9800 (downtrend resistance from July maximums, 100-period MA on H4 chart). Don’t forget that 200-week MA at 1.0030 is looming above the pair – the last time pair traded above this line on a sustainable basis was in 2002. The main technical levels are marked on the chart. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-09/18...-bulls-vs-bears

"EUR: analysts are bearish" (2012-08-09) EUR: analysts are bearish Commerzbank: We suspect that the move higher has terminated ahead of the -month channel resistance at $1.2500. St. George Bank: It’s hard to see any upside for the euro at the moment. Economic data has been quite soft. There’s still a bit of uncertainty about what the ECB can do and will do in addressing the crisis. UBS: As euro short-covering had been completed, the currency is expected to stick to narrow ranges until fresh factors emerged. Mizuho: We’re looking for the euro to go to parity. It will take about a year, but we are heading in that direction. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/1970-01-01/18706-eur-analysts-are-bearish

"EUR’s down on ECB Monthly Bulletin" (2012-08-09) EUR’s down on ECB Monthly Bulletin The ECB released it monthly Bulletin – report which explains the central bank’s monetary policy decision. Euro zone’s growth estimate was revised down to -0.3% (from -0.2% in Q2) in 2012, to +0.6% (from +1.0%) in 2013. 2012 HICP and long term inflation forecasts at 2.3% and 2.0%. The 2013 HICP was lowered from 1.8% to 1.7%, and inflation in 2014 is expected to end at 1.9%. EUR/USD is once again testing support at $1.2340. Support: $1.2290, $1.2240, $1.2130, $1.2040. Resistance: $1.2400, $1.2440, $1.2500. Chart. H1 EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/1970-01-01/18704-eurs-down-ecb-monthly-bulletin

"EUR/GBP: trading comments" (2012-08-09) EUR/GBP: trading comments EUR/GBP declines for a third consecutive day. The pair slid below 0.7900 after peaking at 0.7961 on Monday. We expect EUR/GBP to continue a long-term downtrend after a two-week upward correction. The inability to overcome the 50-day MA counts in favor of a downward movement. A break below 0.7845 (23.6% Fib. retracement of a June-July decline) will signal a slide back to 0.7753 (July 23 minimum). In a longer term key support lies in the 0.7694 area (2008 minimums). Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-09/18702-eurgbp-trading-comments

"Key options expiring today" (2012-08-09) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2250, $1.2280, $1.2295, $1.2300, $1.2305, $1.2310, $1.2315, $1.2400, $1.2500; GBP/USD $1.5600, $1.5650; USD/JPY: 78.00, 78.15, 79.10; AUD/USD: $1.0550; USD/CAD: 0.9975; EUR/JPY: 97.55, 97.75, 98.00; EUR/GBP: 0.7800, 0.7825, 0.7890, 0.7900. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-09/18700-key-options-expiring-today

"August 9: Forex news" (2012-08-09) August 9: Forex news The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) of stocks rose for a fourth consecutive day. AUD/USD opened a new 4-month high at $1.0612 after data showed Australian labor market is strong. The number of people employed rose in July by 14K vs. expected increase of 10K. The jobless rate fell from a revised 5.3% in June to 5.2% last month. However, Aussie’s gains were tempered on the news from China. China released a bunch of important data today: CPI dropped to a 30-month low, rising by 1.8% y/y in July (consensus: 1.7%; previous: 2.2%). PPI dropped by 2.9% (consensus: -2.5%; previous: -2.1%). According to economists, slowing Chinese inflation may offer room for further easing in Asia’s biggest economy, what will support AUD and NZD in the medium term. There are reasons to expect more loose policy in China indeed: the nation’s retail sales added only 13.1% in July (vs. consensus of +13.6%), while industrial production rose only by 9.2% (vs. consensus of +9.8%). NZD/USD declined to $0.8130 levels. The jobless rate increased to 6.8% from 6.7% in Q1, exceeding the median estimate for 6.5%. Employment fell by 0.1% vs. a forecasted 0.3% growth. According to specialists, negative data is likely to accelerate kiwi’s downward correction. The consensus opinion won: the Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged (benchmark rate below 0.1%, asset-purchase fund at 45 trillion yen ($573 billion) and lending facility at 25 trillion yen). Japan’s machinery orders, an indicator of capital spending, rose 5.6% in June after slumping by 14.8% in May, though economists expected 11.1% gain. USD/JPY is trading to the upside fluctuating up and down on the H1 chart. The spread for 2-year notes increased to 18.4 yesterday, the highest level since July 5. The yield spread between 10-year US Treasuries over JGB widened to more than 2-month maximum. EUR/USD is capped by the 50-hour MA at $1.2385. Yesterday the pair tested the levels below support at $1.2340. On Wednesday Toronto-based DBRS Inc. cut credit ratings on Spain and Italy. Spanish 10-year yields rose to 6.87% yesterday. German industrial production declined by 0.9% in June from May, when it gained a revised 1.7%. Tomorrow watch for French data. Soft data in the euro area hinders further advance of the single currency. GBP/USD strengthens for a third consecutive day, while USD/CAD demonstrates a five-day drop, remaining below parity. Canada will release trade balance and housing market data later today. Also watch US data releases at 12:30 GMT. American trade deficit probably shrank in June as cheaper oil reduced the import bill and slower global growth led to reduced demand for American-made goods. According to the consensus forecast, the gap probably narrowed to $47.5 billion, the 4-month minimum, from $48.7 billion in May. Weekly jobless benefit claims are expected to edge up to 371K from 365K in the previous week. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-09/18698-august-9-forex-news

"Standard Chartered: BOJ will increase APP" (2012-08-08) Standard Chartered: BOJ will increase APP Analysts at Standard Chartered believe that USD/JPY will stick to the current levels. On the downside USD/JPY will be supported by the risk of the BOJ intervention. On the upside, its advance will be limited by the expectations of more QE from the Fed. The specialists expect the pair to close Q3 (September) at 79.00 and then to strengthen to finish 2012 at 82.00. Standard Chartered thinks that the Bank of Japan will increase APP (Asset Purchase Program) target by another 5-10 trillion yen tomorrow. As the reasons the specialists cite Japan’s economic growth which is losing momentum, deflationary pressure, strong national currency, expectations of stimulus in the US and Europe. If it happens, markets will be surprised and yen will weaken, though only in the short term. According to Standard Chartered, Japanese economy will add 2.2% in 2012 and 2% in 2013, while inflation will remain benign at 0.2% in 2012 picking up slightly to 0.3% in 2013. The bank claims that in the longer-term, “the case for more sustained yen’s weakness is building: Japan's shift away from nuclear power adds to the negative terms-of-trade and current account outlook and the nation faces substantial sovereign debt risks of its own.” Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-08/18695-standard-chartered-boj-will-increase-app

"BofA: US recovery is limping" (2012-08-08) BofA: US recovery is limping According to Bank of America, US manufacturing sector was resilient and has already reached the pre-crisis levels. However, 70% of US GDP is based on a service sector, which remains depressed. Specialists think this is the reason why the economy still remains weak and is extremely vulnerable to external shocks. Economists point out that last year the share of manufacturing in the economy increased, but it happened not because of exceptional boom in manufacturing, but because of an exceptionally slow recovery in services. The dynamics of the recovery of both sectors can be seen from the charts below. This revelation means that US economy faces more obstacles than one can see on the surface. Source: Bank of Amarica Merill Lynch Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-08/18694-bofa-us-recovery-limping

"GBP/USD up on BOE data" (2012-08-08) GBP/USD up on BOE data On Wednesday GBP/USD first fell from $1.5615 to $1.5573 before the BOE report. As widely expected, the Bank of England cut its growth forecast and said inflation will be below its target in two years as the crisis in the euro area and the U.K. fiscal squeeze weigh on demand. The central bank sees annual GDP growth of about 2% in two years, compared with a projection in May of 2.5%. It sees CPI growth at about 1.6% by then, below its 2% goal. Other key points of the BoE report: •Forecasts are based on $375 billion QE and a rate cut in Q2 2013 •UK demand is expected to remain weak in the near-term •Euro area crisis contiues to weigh on demand •Strong sterling may hurt export growth •Biggest threat to UK is a delay in solution to the Euro crisis Later the British currency bounced back towards yesterday’s high at $1.5685 and tested $1.5672 as the BoE Governor King’s comments pointed to no more rate cuts in the near future. According to him, early indications from FLS scheme are positive, but incertainty coming from the euro area damages demand. King expects the UK GDP to rebound in Q3 Chart. H4 GBP/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-08/18689-boe-sut-growth-and-cpi-forecasts

"USD/CAD: bullish long-term bias (MIG Bank)" (2012-08-08) USD/CAD: bullish long-term bias (MIG Bank) Technical analysts at MIG bank note that the greenback keeps sliding to 0.9954 versus its Canadian counterpart. The specialists regard this level (support of the trend line connecting July 2011 lows and April 2012 minimums) as an important support saying that above this level the bulls will retain strength of pushing USD/CAD higher. If the pair fails to hold above 0.9954, it will slide to 0.9800. Below the latter, the outlook for USD/CAD will turn bearish. According to the bank, in the longer-term, the ‘falling wedge’ pattern is a bullish signal. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-08/18690-usdcad-bullish-long-term-bias-mig-bank

"USD/JPY’s supported by rising US yields’ (2012-08-08) USD/JPY’s supported by rising US yields Everyone noticed that USD/JPY is supported by rising US yields, but will this become a trend and even if so, will it be able to ensure recovery of the pair? Both 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields have reached 1-month maximum amid the improvement of the market’s risk appetite. As a result, the yield spread between US and Japanese debt has widened. Credit Agricole: “Two-year yields have jumped in recent days. As long as US yields move higher then of course USD/JPY will be under upward pressure. However, for bond yields to move higher you need to see some credible signs of U.S. recovery. But the lack of data in the coming days suggests it's not going to happen.” We’d also like to add that yen, on its part, will be supported by the repatriation flow. http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/07_08_12/08_08_12/usjp_2-year.png Yield spread between 2-year US and Japanese bonds. Source: Bloomberg Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here USD/JPY

"NZD/USD slid from a three-month high"(2012-08-08) NZD/USD slid from a three-month high On Wednesday NZD/USD slid to $0.8140 levels, demonstrating a two-day decline. On Monday the pair reached a three-month high at $0.8222. H4 chart NZD/USD trades above the up-directed 200-, 100- and 50-day MAs. Today the pair bounced back from the 50-period MA at $0.8122 Chart. H4 NZD/USD Daily chart On the daily chart we see a bullish divergence. In our view, these days kiwi’s prospects are worse than Aussie’s as NZD/USD is close to a strong resistance area. The next resistance for the pair lies at $0.8233 (April 26-27 double top), at $0.8316 (April 13 maximum) and at $0.8469 (February 29 maximum). There is also a resistance line, connecting August 2011 and February 2012 maximums. On a downside, support lies at $0.8060 (August 1 minimum, March minimums and early July highs) and at $0.7962 (100- and 200-day MAs crossing). Chart. Daily NZD/USD BNZ: The likelihood of further global policy easing, a high and rising interest rate differential and buoyant soft commodity prices all speak in favor of NZD/USD uptrend. However, this week we expect some consolidation in a $0.8100-0.8245 range. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-08/18686-nzdusd-slid-three-month-high

"GBP/USD ahead of BoE inflation report’ (RBS)"(2012-08-08) GBP/USD ahead of BoE inflation report GBP/USD is currently bouncing back towards $1.5600 psychological level after a fall to $1.5572 low just ahead of the BoE inflation report. According to specialists at ING, the report is expected to be dovish. Both GDP and CPI forecasts are to be revised down, permitting the regulator to adopt more stimulus. However, a new policy easing is unlikely to happen before November, with last QE round introduced by the central bank only in July and the funding for lending scheme launched just recently. Chart. H1 GBP/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-08/18684-gbpusd-ahead-boe-inflation-report

"EUR/USD: ‘inverse head and shoulders’ (RBS)"(2012-08-08) EUR/USD: ‘inverse head and shoulders’ (RBS) Technical analysts at RBS claim that Friday’s 200-pip advance of EUR/USD completed an ‘inverse head and shoulders’ pattern at the daily chart. In addition, the pair broke above resistance of the downtrend line that began and had held since May 1. The outlook for euro is bullish in the short-term and the single currency may rise to $1.2540. There’s now a support at $1.2341 (neckline). RBS recommend longs on the dips to $1.2293/1.2341 targeting $1.2445 and probably $1.2539. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-08/18682-eurusd-inverse-head-and-shoulders-rbs

"GBP/USD extends gains"(2012-08-07) GBP/USD extends gains On Tuesday GBP/USD reached $1.5670 after yesterday investors’ indecisive behavior. The pound was supported as data released today showed UK industrial production declined less-than-expected in June. On the H4 chart GBP/USD trades above the up-headed 200-, 100- and 50-day MAs. Note the pair broke above triangle resistance today. It means GBP/USD is bullish in a near-term and is likely to strengthen at least to the upper boundary of a sideways channel. The pair trades in a $1.5450-1.5750 range existing since June after trading in a bearish channel in May. In a medium-term, however, we expect GBP/USD to remain flat because of the strong resistance levels concentrated in the $1.5735/85 area (200-day MA and 50% Fib. retracement from a May drop). A close above $1.5780 could open the way for a further rise to $1.5904. On a downside the next support for the pair out of the bounds of the sideways channel lies at $1.5392 (July 12 minimum) and at $1.5267/33 (June and 2012 minimums). Chart. H4 GBP/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-07/18670-gbpusd-technical-comments

"USD/JPY: technical investigation"(2012-08-07) USD/JPY: technical investigation On the daily USD/JPY chart we see descending triangle pattern – the odds are that the greenback will break the horizontal resistance line at 78 yen to the downside. On the upside, the pair is still caped by 20-day MA (indigo line on the chart). The 50-day MA has recently gone below the 200-day one – bearish signal. The move A-B-C is another confirmation of the bearish view. The IMF said this week that yen’s “moderately overvalued.” According to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, Japanese currency added 3.7% in the past 3 months versus 10 developed-nation currencies. The Bank of Japan's seem to support the greenback for now, but the situation may change if the central bank doesn't deliver any easing (such outcome will be in line with forecasts). Another serious supporting factor is the risk of the BOJ intervention. Well, things are always quite complicated with USD/JPY. Chart. Daily USD/JPY On H4 chart the picture is better. USD/JPY keeps trading in the 78.65/00 area sloping a bit upward within this range. There’s still some scope for consolidation to continue. USD/JPY may revisit the recent maximums in the near term on the upward leg of the sideways trading. Resistance: 78.55, 78.65, 78.77 79.00 and 79.13. Support: 78.15, 78.07, 78.00 and 77.90. Chart. H4 USD/JPY Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-07/18668-usdjpy-technical-investigation

"NZD/USD: technical comments"(2012-08-07) NZD/USD: technical comments On Tuesday NZD/USD consolidates around $0.8200. Yesterday the pair reached a three-month high at $0.8222. H4 chart NZD/USD trades above the up-directed 200-, 100- and 50-day MAs. However, RSI is close to 70, indicating the kiwi is overbought. Moreover, signal line has just crossed the MACD histogram, giving a sell signal. In addition, there is a bullish divergence on the H4 chart. Chart. H4 NZD/USD Daily chart We also see a bullish divergence and RSI is close to 70. In our view, these days kiwi’s prospects are worse than Aussie’s as NZD/USD approaches a very strong resistance area. The next resistance for the pair lies at $0.8233 (April 26-27 double top), at $0.8316 (April 13 maximum) and at $0.8469 (February 29 maximum). There is also a resistance line, connecting August 2011 and February 2012 maximums. On a downside, support lies at $0.8060 (August 1 minimum, March minimums and early July highs) and at $0.7962 (100- and 200-day MAs crossing). Chart. Daily NZD/USD BNZ: The likelihood of further global policy easing, a high and rising interest rate differential and buoyant soft commodity prices all speak in favor of NZD/USD uptrend. However, this week we expect some consolidation in a $0.8100-0.8245 range Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-07/18665-nzdusd-technical-comments

"The Bank of Japan will likely stay pat"(2012-08-07) The Bank of Japan will likely stay pat The Bank of Japan starts its 2-day meeting today. The consensus is that the central bank will keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.1% and maintain the size of its asset-purchase program, its main policy tool, at 70 trillion yen ($895 billion) saving easing options for later. Note that this will be the first meeting with new board members Takahide Kiuchi and Takehiro Sato – both officials have signaled willingness to consider fresh forms of easing. BBH said the 2 policymakers are “are known to be sympathetic to more unconventional easing, but like the RBA, a ‘wait and see’ stance by the BOJ is more likely now.” Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi claimed today that the nation’s government will extend its dollar credit facility aimed at helping Japanese companies invest overseas by 6 months until the end of the fiscal year in March 2013. This is one of the ways to fight with yen’s appreciation. This program started in August 2011 can deploy up to 10 trillion yen ($127.81 billion). To compare: Japanese authorities spent 8 trillion yen in the record unilateral intervention in the currency market October 31 2011. Since then Japan stayed out of the market, but resumed verbal pressure so far as yen remains strong. The possibility of Japan’s action keeps USD/JPY above 78 yen after the levels was firstly tested in June. Jun Azumi. Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg If the Fed decides to act in September adding stimulus, the BOJ will really need to have some bazooka in store as easing in the US will weaken the greenback versus yen. The BOJ may also decide to make its next move in October as the semiannual forecasts on the economy and prices are released on October 30. If the BOJ stays pat on Thursday, USD/JPY will keep drifting gradually lower. Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-07/18664-bank-japan-will-likely-stay-pat

"AUD/USD: technical comments"(2012-08-07) AUD/USD: technical comments On Tuesday AUD/USD consolidates around $1.0585. The pair trades close to a four-month high at $1.0603, tested earlier today. The pair still trades close to the upper boundary of the upward channel existing since mid-June. On the daily and H4 chart the pair trades above the up-directed 200-, 100- and 50-period MAs. As can be seen from the H4 chart, RSI has nearly reached 70, what means the pair is overbought. Moreover, we see a bullish divergence. In our view, a medium-term uptrend looks rather resilient. The next resistance lies at $1.0640/70 (March 19 and 7 maximums), $1.0750/60 (Sep. and Oct. 2011 maximums) and at $1.0855 (2012 maximum). Support lies at $1.0540, $1.0475 and $1.0435 (August 2 minimum). Bulls have a clear advantage above $1.0475 (April 27 maximum, beginning of a sharp May decline). However, we concede a correction to $1.0400 (middle of the channel) and to $1.0280 (lower boundary and the 200-day MA). Exit from the upward channel will pave the ground for a further decline to $1.0176 (July 25 minimum) and to $1.0100 (July 12 minimum). Chart. H4 AUD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-07/18662-audusd-technical-comments