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internationallove
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Market analysis "Commerzbank: EUR/USD will consolidate at current level" (2010-11-17) Yesterday the single currency continued declining versus the greenback. The pair EUR/USD broke through the 55-day MA at 1.3577 to the 50% retracement of the advance from August. Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the near-term consolidation of the pair at the current levels seems to be quite possible as the market attempts to compensate recent losses. The specialists note that the bulls will face resistance at 1.3645, 1.3765/75, which together with 1.3851 (20 day-ma) will limit the rate on the upside. The European currency risks lowering to 1.3365/35 support (38.2% retracement and the August peak) and then to the 200-day MA at 1.3138. Chart. H1 EUR/USD
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Market analysis "Danske Bank: market comments" (2010-11-17) Strategists at Danske Bank note that the market is still focused on Irish debt problems that continue weighting on euro’s rate. The specialists believe that the single currency isn’t ready to react to some positive unexpected data. After yesterday’s surprisingly strong ZEW the pair EUR/USD rose only by 30 pips. If Ireland keeps refusing to take financial aid from the European Union, the crisis risks spreading to other indebted euro area’s countries. Danske analysts also claim that it’s necessary to pay attention to today’s Bank of England’s meeting. According to them, downside risk for British pound is limited as UK central bank is quite unlikely to go into further monetary easing. Chart. H1 EUR/USD
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Market analysis "Okasan Securities: USD/JPY will rise to 86.00 yen" (2010-11-17) Currency strategists at Okasan Securities are certain that the pair USD/JPY will remain strong for some time. The specialists claim that the greenback may rise versus Japanese yen during the coming weeks to 86.00 that’s the level reached right after September currency intervention of Japanese monetary authorities. According to Okasan Securities, technical levels with plenty of stop-loss buying orders are found at 84.00, 85.00 and 86.00. Among factors helping US dollar strengthen there are declining commodity prices, increasing US Treasury yields and the deepening concerns about the euro-zone’s debt crisis. Chart. H4 USD/JPY
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Market analysis "Commerzbank: dollar will gain versus yen" (2010-11-16) The greenback recovered from 15-year minimum at 80.20 rising yesterday to the 83.00 area and closing the day above the 55-day MA at 82.70/87, September minimum and the 6-month downtrend channel. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that such move of the rate means that it’s going to keep climbing. According to the specialists, if US dollar advances, it will manage to get to 85.94 and 88.00/02 (200-day ma). The declines of the US currency will be limited by the 20-day MA at 81.49. Chart. H1 USD/JPY
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Market analysis "BNY Mellon: euro will remain under pressure" (2010-11-16) Analysts at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. expect the single currency to lose on the prospects of Ireland’s getting bailout from the EU. The specialists believe that investors’ concerns about the problems in Irish banking system and the austerity measures have reached the point when they don’t believe that the country will be able to get out of the crisis on its own. The European Union and the European Central Bank are worrying about of the risk of contagion. The uncertainty will disappear only when there will be a clear decision on Ireland. Until it happens euro will stay under downward pressure and the greenback will be poised to advance.
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Market analysis "UBS: US dollar forecast’s increased" (2010-11-16) Currency strategists at UBS AG increased their one-month forecasts for the greenback as US economic data improves, while the concerns about debt crisis in the euro area strengthen making investors prefer dollars. The forecast for US dollar versus the single currency in a month was lifted up from $1.40 to $1.30 per euro. The pair USD/JPY is now expected to trade at 85 yen in one month, while the previous estimate was at 80 yen.
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Market analysis "Forecast Pte: dollar will climb to 84.47 yen" (2010-11-16) Technical analysts at Forecast Pte expect the greenback to rise to the 7-week maximum versus Japanese yen. The specialists note that the pair USD/JPY closed last week above 82.19 yen level representing resistance of descending trend line that connects the maximums of May 5, June 4 and September 17. US currency broke through its 50-day MA at 82.67 yen that used to cap so far its upward movements. The short-term trend for USD/JPY is bullish, momentum is up and the pair is free to climb to the 100-day average at 84.47 yen. Dollar’s rate added 3.6% from a 15-year minimum at 80.22 yen hit on November 1. Last week the greenback gained 1.6% showing its biggest advance since September 17. The US currency’s MACD was today at 0.0753, above the signal line that was found at minus 0.2724, that’s another sign that dollar is going to advance against yen.
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Market analysis "Citigroup: euro will rise to $1.45 in 2011" (2010-11-16) Analysts at Citigroup Inc. note that the single currency that showed last week the biggest 5-day loss versus the greenback since August may rebound to its January levels. The specialists believe that investors will react optimistically to any bailout for Ireland will and the concerns about the debt crisis in the euro area will ease. As a result, the market’s attention will once again focus on the Fed’s monetary stimulus measures and US dollar will resume trading within a downtrend. Citigroup specialists regard the current decline of euro that’s close to its recent minimums as a good buying opportunity. The European currency’s expected to climb to $1.45 at the beginning of 2011 that’s above November 4 high at $1.4282. It’s necessary to point out that Ireland had the highest euro-region budget deficit in 2009 at 14.45% of GDP. Irish authorities are currently trying to convince financial markets that the country doesn’t need any external financial help but the other members of the EU pressure it for accepting aid in order to calm volatility that made borrowing costs of indebted European countries surge to record maximums.
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Market analysis "UniCredit: pound will rise to 84 pence per euro and $1.62 (15/11/10) Analysts at UniCredit SpA expect British pound to appreciate. Their assumptions are based on the fact that investors may increase demand for sterling regarding it as safer currency than euro is. The specialists are citing the deteriorating of the euro zone’s debt crisis, the concerns about Irish banking sector its possible implications for the 2011 Irish budget in particular. According to UniCredit, when European investors choose sterling they theoretically remain in the European Union hedging themselves against euro-zone-specific risks. The strategists think that pound may rise to 84 pence per euro and $1.62.
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Market analysis "Commerzbank: below $1.6185 pound risks falling" ( 2010-11-15 ) The pair GBP/USD has now survived 3 attempts of the bears to break down its 20-day MA at 1.5976. As a result, technical analysts at Commerzbank see further consolidation as quite possible. At the same time the specialists warn that there are significant downside risks as long as pound trades below Fibonacci resistance at 1.6185, so the 20-day MA may be tested again and sterling can drop below 1.5950 to 1.58. GBP/USD is currently trading in the 1.6080 area. [
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Market analysis "Mizuho expects EUR/JPY to gain" ( 2010-11-15 ) Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that the big “hammer” formed on Friday on the EUR/JPY candle chart is regarded as the third and the last in the series and marks an interim minimum. The low of the “hammer” lies at 111.04, that is below 2 previous downside tests. The specialists note that the daily close above the top of a large daily Ichimoku Cloud was able to change momentum from bearish to bullish. According to Mizuho, it’s necessary to buy on the dip to 112.50 stopping below 111.50 as the analysts expect the single currency to rise to 113.50 and then to 114.40.
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Market analysis "Mizuho: GBP/USD will rise to 1.6300" ( 2010-11-15 ) Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that the strong “doji” candle formed on Friday shows that the pair GBP/USD is attempting to form new interim base in the 1.6000 zone. The specialists note that it’s necessary to take into account that the MAs are pointing to a long position and the Chinkou Span obtained some bullish momentum from October’s candles, while the August resistance is likely to become a support level. According to Mizuho, investors should buy on the dip to 1.6050 stopping below 1.5950 as the analysts expect pound to rise to 1.6175 and then 1.6300.
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Market analysis "Commerzbank: bullish reversal of USD/JPY may be conf" ( 2010-11-15 ) The greenback jumped last week reaching 82.70/84 area on Friday and at the beginning of Monday’s trade. The pair USD/JPY is now trying to break up through 6-month downtrend resistance and 55-day MA in this zone. Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that if US currency manages to close the day above these levels, the bullish reversal will be confirmed. The specialists note that such outcome is quite likely after the triple divergence of the daily RSI. If USD/JPY advances, it will be poised to climb to 85.94 (September maximum) and 88.00/05 (200-day MA).
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