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internationallove
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Market analysis "RBC: euro’s losing its gains versus the greenback" (2010-11-23) Currency strategists at RBC none that the European currency would probably have to struggle hard in order to keep the gains it made since investors became optimistic on Ireland’s bailout. In their view, providing the country with a loan won’t solve all its problems. The specialists note that the region’s economic fundamentals aren’t quite encouraging. According to RBC estimates, Portugal will also have to ask for financial help by February 2011 at the latest. The pair EUR/USD is declining today from the level of $1.3786 reached yesterday, the maximal since November 11. Chart. H1 EUR/USD
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Market analysis "JPMorgan: euro may drop to $1.29" (2010-11-23) Technical analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. claim that the single currency may drop below $1.30 for the first time since September after it formed reversal model “outside down day”. Yesterday euro set intra-day maximums and minimums that surpassed levels from the previous session and closed 0.3% lower pointing at further declines. The specialists suppose that if the pair EUR/USD breaks down through last week’s minimum at $1.3448, it would fall down to $1.32 zone representing support of the uptrend line from the June 7 minimum at $1.1877, the weakest since March 2006. If European currency fails at this level, then it’ll slump to $1.29 level at which it traded last time on September 14. According to JPMorgan, the attempts of the market to get higher mean that the bulls are too weak and that the rate risks dropping more. Chart. Daily EUR/USD
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Market analysis "Mizuho: euro may climb to 116.60 yen" (2010-11-22) Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that a small gap higher above the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud means that the pair EUR/JPY has strength to break above the broad range within which it was trading since May. The specialists note that if the single currency manages to hold above the moving averages or close the week above 115.00 bullish momentum will increase letting euro overcome 116.25 level completing a large “broadening bottom” pattern. According to Mizuho, it’s necessary to buy at 114.80 stopping below 113.20. First target is at 115.50, then 116.60. Chart. Daily EUR/JPY
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Market analysis "BNP Paribas: pound may rise to $1.63" (2010-11-22) Currency strategists at BNP Paribas advise investors to buy British pounds versus the greenback. According to them, the potential Irish bailout seems to be quite positive for UK banking sector. The specialist note that the pair GBP/USD has broken through the key resistance at 1.6030. Sterling may climb to 1.6120 and possibly to 1.63, claims BNP. Chart. H4 GBP/USD
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Market analysis "Irish bailout won’t solve euro zone’s problems" (2010-11-22) Strategists at Barclays Capital claim that despite the fact that Ireland formally applied for an EU/IMF bailout the contagion risk for the other peripheral European nations didn’t decrease – Portugal’s yield spread with Germany mimics the pattern of Spanish spreads. The same opinion is shared by the specialists at Danske Bank. In their view, any rebound in the single currency will be less than its advance after the Greek bailout. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets believe that the program of financial help for Ireland may raise the risk of social unrest as the loan will be granted on the conditions of policy tightening. Most of concerns are connected with the risk that some European governments may force Ireland to increase its 12.5% corporate tax rate. Economists at UBS AG are bearish on euro and note that it’s going to take years for the fiscal issues of certain euro zone countries to be resolved. According to them, the pair EUR/USD will trade $1.25 by the end of January. Chart. H4 EUR/USD
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Market analysis "Commerzbank: EUR/USD will reverse at 1.3865/1.3965" (2010-11-22) Technical analysts at Commerzbank regard the current advance of the single currency from the minimums in 1.3445/55 area hit last week as a correction reaction to the longer-term downtrend. According to the specialists, euro’s growth will continue above 1.3775 to cap at 1.3865/1.3965 levels representing 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline. Then the pair EUR/USD is likely to reverse slipping to 1.3365/35 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the August peak) and then to 1.3139 (200-day MA). Chart. H4 EUR/USD
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Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the single currency is moving up versus the greenback towards 200-day MA at 1.3798. In their view this level and the 4-month resistance line at 1.3812 will be strong enough to hold the initial attempt the bulls to get higher. As for the longer term, the dynamics of the EUR/CHF rate is regarded as a large inverse head and shoulders pattern. If euro closes above 1.3812, it will be able to climb to 1.4000 pivot and beyond. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF
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Market analysis "Ireland will accept aid from EU and IMF" (2010-11-22) The single currency rose today to one-week maximum versus the greenback as the European Union finance ministers announced that a capital fund will be established to rescue Irish banks. As a result Ireland’s going to be the second country getting bailout the EU and the IMF. The European Central Bank yesterday expressed confidence that the support of the European monetary authorities will help Ireland to restore stability of its banking system. According to Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen, the negotiations on the financial aid package will be completed in the next few weeks. Finance Minister Brian Lenihan estimates the loan to be less than 100 billion euro ($137 billion). Strategists at ANZ National Bank Ltd. note that Ireland’s deal will bring relief to markets only in the near-term, while it will soon become clear that the euro area’s problems won’t be solved quickly. Chart. H1 EUR/USD
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Market analysis "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF" (2010-11-22) Weekly USD/CHF The greenback keeps rebounding versus Swiss franc as well. During the past week the prices managed to break through the Turning line (3) into Tenkan-Kijun channel (3, 4). The situation, however, didn’t change much – almost all the lines remained in the same positions as a week ago: Tenkan (3) and Senkou Span A (1) are directed downwards, while Kijun-sen (4) and Senkou Span B (2) are horizontal. That means that the main trend at the market is bearish. Chart. Weekly USD/CHF Daily USD/CHF On the daily chart the situation may change any time as the prices approached the upper border of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud. Before that the prices have rapidly broken through the Senkou Span A. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen have formed again the “golden cross” (5) and also headed upwards. That means that the short-term trend’s strongly bullish. In addition, Senkou Span A (1) keeps narrowing the Kumo range that’s also positively influencing the sentiment of the market’s players. This week the prices may be found outside the Cloud, above Senkou Span B. Chart. Daily USD/CHF
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Market analysis "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY" (2010-11-22) Weekly USD/JPY The bulls keep actively buying US dollar versus Japanese yen. The rate has already broken up through Tenkan-sen (3). If the prices consolidate above this level the pair USD/JPY may survive further rebound to the Standard line (4). Never the less, the bears aren’t likely to give up their positions. The global bearish sentiment of the market will make the rate bounce downwards and only after this the greenback may resume rebounding. Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Daily USD/JPY On the daily chart the prices got inside the Cloud as they almost instantly broke through its bottom. The strong “golden cross” (5) formed by Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen was pushing the rate since the beginning of the week – the pair didn’t return to the Turning lien as it was expected. The rapid rebound of US dollar let the rate break the Chinkou Span through the body of a black candle. In addition, Senkou Span A also kept narrowing the Kumo range. So, the market’s aiming to show further growth. It’s possible to expect that USD/JPY will overcome the upper border of the Cloud this week. Before that, however, the market may sag a bit as Tenkan and Kijun are directed sideways (3, 4). Chart. Daily USD/JPY
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Market analysis "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD" (2010-11-22) Weekly GBP/USD One more week on the GBP/USD market ended in favor of bears. On the weekly price chart, however, the Turning line managed to act as a support (3) pointing at the continuing uptrend. The Preceding lines switched the Cloud upwards and the Senkou Span A (1) was also poised for growth. As a result, this week the rate may bounce up. There are doubts only about the location of the Chinkou Span found in the area of the maximal deviation from the price chart as it may lead to the consolidation at the current levels. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD As it was expected, on the daily chart the Standard line was tested at the beginning of the week. Kijun-sen (4), however, didn’t manage to hold the bears. As a result, the prices broke it down on Tuesday and then even consolidated below its level. On Thursday the rate returned to the positive area going even through Tenkan-sen. It’s possible that the correction will finish soon and that we may see the end of the uptrend as the Ichimoku Cloud is going up. Chart. Daily GBP/USD
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Market analysis "UBS: euro may fall to $1.10" (2010-11-18) Currency strategists at UBS AG expect that the single currency may fall below long-term support at 1.1000 during the coming months. According to them, euro is likely to trade within the downtrend as the European Central Bank will be forced to keep its monetary policy extremely loose because the euro zone nations will be tightening their fiscal belts. Moreover, a lot of private institutions are increasing short positions on euro encouraging public investment firms to follow their example that’s even more strengthening negative pressure on the pair EUR/USD. UBS specialists advise investors to buy EUR/USD put-spread with 6-month expiry, strike at $1.1000, $1.000. Recommended trade's cost is 0.9025% with reference spot at 1.2190. Chart. Monthly EUR/USD
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Market analysis "Commerzbank: EUR/USD won’t be able to overcome 1.3850" (2010-11-18) The single currency was gaining versus the greenback during the last 2 days. Euro managed to rebound getting above 1.3600. Technical analysts at Commerzbank note, however, that it won’t be able to get much higher and, on the contrary, risks falling to 1.3365/35 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the August peak) and then to the 200-day MA at 1.3138. The specialists claim that the pair EUR/USD will face interim resistance at 1.3645 and 1.3765/75 and its attempts to climb higher will be limited by the 20-day SMA in the 1.3850 zone. Chart. H4 EUR/USD
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Market analysis "Danske Bank: EUR/USD will lower to $1.34 in a month" (2010-11-18) Analysts at Danske Bank believe that the pair EUR/USD will trade in a month at $1.34. In their view, there may be several factors that could make the single currency stabilize versus the greenback in the near term. These factors include the solving of Ireland’s funding question and the following decrease of the risk of the crisis’ spreading to other indebted euro zone countries. It’s also important that the global risk sentiment wouldn’t be determined only by the concerns about the situation of the peripheral European nations. In addition, US yields have to correct lower. The 2-year EUR-USD swap spread has stabilized just below 100 basis points after it narrowed due to the Fed’s announcement about the beginning of QE2. Danske specialists note that these factors haven’t realized yet, so they believe euro will find itself under negative pressure. That’s why their one-month forecast is for the European currency’s drop to $1.34. Chart. H4 EUR/USD
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Market analysis "JPMorgan&Chase: dollar will fall to 75 yen in 2011" (2010-11-18) Analysts at JPMorgan & Chase Co. are sure that the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing policy is making US dollar the world’s “weakest currency”. The specialists expect that the greenback will fall to 75 yen in 2011. The lowest level of the pair USD/JPY was hit at 79.75 yen in April 1995. The minimal rate since then was at 80.22 yen on November 1. US, Japanese and European central banks will keep rates next year at the minimal levels in order to spur the growth of their economies, while the Fed is likely to take additional easing steps following the $600 billion bond-purchase program announced this month depending on inflation and the labor market. JPMorgan strategists also reminded that the United States has the world’s largest current-account deficit. Even if the US prolongs easing it won’t increase inflationary pressures as the balance sheets of banks and households are still damaged by the global financial crisis. According to JPMorgan, 10-year Treasury yields may drop from 2.89% today to 2.25% over the next year and their premium over similar-maturity Japanese yields won’t widen. Loose policy of the key central banks flooding the market with extra liquidity will correspond to 3% advance of the global economy in 2011 as it happened in 2004-2004 when stocks and commodities surged on improving risk appetite and dollar lost 25% versus yen. The rebound of the world’s economy encouraging risk sentiment will make investors reduce their demand for Japanese currency that will decline against other currencies beside the dollar to levels last seen in early 2007. The analysts also believe that Japan’s monetary authorities won’t intervene again at the currency market as it did on September 15 when the national currency rose to 15-year maximum even if yen appreciates versus US dollar due to the international criticism of foreign-exchange intervention. Chart. Daily USD/JPY
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Hello Everyone! Good morning from the entire FBS Team
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Our kindest and brightest wishes for Eid al-Adha celebration ! Dear clients! Today in the end of Hajj Muslims throughout the world celebrate Eid al-Adha. It is the most celebrated holiday in Islam. It represents the end of the pilgrimage to the Islamic sacred places and reminds of the eternal values for any confession: justice, kindness, mercy and care. FBS would like to congratulate all our Muslim clients on this important spiritual holiday and wish peace, harmony and happiness to your home. Let your families always have love, respect and prosperity.
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Market analysis "Citi: pound will decline versus the greenback" (2010-11-17) Analysts at Citi advise investors to look forward to more declines of British pound versus the greenback. According to the bank, even though pound was the best performer among G10 currencies during the last five days, it yesterday’s drop from the day’s maximum at 1.6086 to the minimum at 1.5839 suggests that sterling’s going to catch-up with the drop in other dollar crosses. If the market’s risk aversion keeps increasing, pound will correct downwards in the near term. Chart. H1 GBP/USD