internationallove

"Credit Suisse: BOJ should lower rates"(2011-03-17) Analysts at Credit Suisse claim that the Bank of Japan has to cut short-term interest rates in order to stop yen’s appreciation to the record maximums. In their view, this would be better than the government intervention in the currency market. Japanese currency climbed yesterday to 76.31 yen versus US dollar rising above the previous post-World War II maximum at 79.75 yen per dollar reached in April 1995. The specialists believe that the pair USD/JPY will stay in range between 78 and 79 yen unless the spread in short-term interest rates between Japan and the United States widens. The central bank should lower the interest rate on a 30 trillion yen ($378 billion) credit program, as well as the interest on excess reserves held by financial intuitions at the BOJ. On March 14 Japanese monetary authorities doubled the size of its asset-purchase plan to 10 trillion yen and kept the benchmark i

"Credit Suisse: BOJ should lower rates"(2011-03-17) Analysts at Credit Suisse claim that the Bank of Japan has to cut short-term interest rates in order to stop yen’s appreciation to the record maximums. In their view, this would be better than the government intervention in the currency market. Japanese currency climbed yesterday to 76.31 yen versus US dollar rising above the previous post-World War II maximum at 79.75 yen per dollar reached in April 1995. The specialists believe that the pair USD/JPY will stay in range between 78 and 79 yen unless the spread in short-term interest rates between Japan and the United States widens. The central bank should lower the interest rate on a 30 trillion yen ($378 billion) credit program, as well as the interest on excess reserves held by financial intuitions at the BOJ. On March 14 Japanese monetary authorities doubled the size of its asset-purchase plan to 10 trillion yen and kept the benchmark interest rate at 0-0.1%. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6577

Russian trader in leading position (Recent update of FBS 999 contest) Trader from Russian Federation (Account#163770) going very well still leading with over 81K capital and Indonesian trader (Account#162671) also progressing well and maintained 2nd position with over 64K capital ..... Account#163770 Position: 1st Country: Russian Federation Balance: 81676.73 USD Account#162671 Position: 2nd Country: Indonesia Balance: 64648.08 USD Check other contestants ranking Go to the scoreboard: http://www.fbs.com/contest/999/participants?type=cur

"Danske Bank changed 3-month forecast for EUR/GBP"(2011-03-16) Analysts at Danske Bank expect the European Central Bank to raise its benchmark interest rate in April by 25 percentage points. The Bank of England, in their view, is less likely to raise the interest rates as the UK economy is too fragile. British central bank may keep the borrowing costs at the current 0.5% level until August. As a result, the specialists cut their 3-month forecast for pound versus euro from 0.86 to 0.89. The pair EUR/GBP rose from 0.8280 on January 10 to 0.8680. Chart. H4 EUR/GBP Comment here Danske Bank changed 3-month forecast for EUR/GBP

"Moody’s cut Portugal's credit rating"(2011-03-16) Moody’s Investors Service cut Portugal’s credit rating to A3. Among the reasons for such decision Moody’s named weaker outlook for economic growth, risks to the government’s deficit- reduction plans and a possible need to recapitalize banks. Portugal is now 4 steps from junk status. The ratings agency said that id the ECB lifts up interest rates it will become more difficult for Portugal to reduce its budget deficit. The nations funding costs as well as the private-sector borrowing costs will increase. The country’s economy has to survive rising taxes and severe spending cuts in more than three decades as the government tries to convince investors’ in its ability to pay all the debts and diminish the deficit. According to Moody’s, Portugal’s GDP may decline this year showing weak recovery at best in 2012. The Bank of Portugal claimed on January 11 that as consumer demand is decreasing and the government is cutting spending, the country’s economy will lose 1.3% this year. Portugal’s unemployment rose to 11.1% in the fourth quarter, the highest since 1998. Portugal intends to sell 20 billion euro of bonds in 2011 to finance its budget and cover the cost of maturing debt. Its 10-year bond yield reached euro-era record of 7.70% on March 9. Portugal has to repay 9 billion euro in April and June. Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman say that Moody’s negative outlook for Portugal is justified and further cuts seem to be quite likely. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6570

"Daiwa: BPJ will have to monetize fiscal deficits"(2011-03-16) Analysts at Daiwa note that yen’s rate is strengthening, while the CPI is falling and massive public debt of nearly 200% of GDP leaves Japanese monetary authorities little room for maneuver. In these circumstances the Bank of Japan will have to monetize the fiscal deficits needed to fund reconstruction. The BOJ will be obliged to be more aggressive on asset purchases to effectively counter the tendency toward a stronger JPY, ensuring positive inflation in 2011. Southeast Asian nation may initially suffer from reduced Japanese FDI in the second quarter of the year as Japan's corporations focus on domestic market. Korea and Taiwan may be affected by disrupted supplies of key capital goods that they import solely from Japan. However, as the period of deflation is likely to end, Japan will manage to take the road of sustainable by the second half of 2011. BOJ has already doubled its asset purchase program to 10 trillion yen. The program will last 15 months. Analysts at UniCredit say that although the BOJ may try to limit the impact of the earthquake on USD/JPY, the pair may still hit record minimums as long as repatriation flows continues, while risk aversion remains high and stocks weak. As a result, the bank advises investors to avoid spot JPY positions. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6568

"Commerzbank: comments on USD/CHF"(2011-03-16) The greenback is trading near the record minimum versus Swiss franc at 0.9150 as the demand for Swiss currency rose due to the concerns about Japan and the Middle East. Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that US currency may extend declines to support line from October to March at 0.9120. The lowest possible level for the pair USD/CHF is found at 0.9000 representing psychological Elliot wave and Fibonacci projections, believe the specialists. In their view, dollar will manage to hold at this level and reverse upwards. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6566

"Mizuho: comments on EUR/USD"(2011-03-16) The European currency went down from 1.4035 at the beginning of March and then recoiled from support at 1.3750 returning in the 1.4000 area. Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that yesterday there probably was a “hanging man” candle formed on the daily chart that hints at the potential “double top”. That means that the pair EUR/USD may reverse down, though yesterday it once again closed above the 9-day MA. The specialists warn, however, that yesterday's candle could also be the “spike low” ahead of the surge of euro’s rate. Such concept is preferred by Mizuho as it corresponds to the bank’s long-term outlook. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6564

"HSBC: Japan's disaster won't affect Asian economies much"(2011-03-16) Analysts at HSBC claim that Japan's earthquake will neither derail the growth of emerging Asian economies, nor ease inflationary pressure. The specialists note that Asian monetary authorities may be tempted to postpone any already-scheduled tightening. Such outcome, in their view, would be a mistake. The economic impact of Japanese disaster on the rest of the region will remain relatively limited, so HSBC underlines that the region’s central banks should make fighting inflation a priority. The economists say that although Japan's consumption will certainly slow down in the coming months, it will be compensated by high government and private spending on reconstruction, especially in what concerns an housing, infrastructure, electricity generation and transmission. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6560

"SNB won’t raise rates in March"(2011-03-16) Analysts at UBS expect that the Swiss National Bank will keep tomorrow its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the record low of 0.25% to let interest differentials between the euro area and Switzerland widen pushing the pair EUR/CHF up. All 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News share this point of view. UBS specialists think that the SNB will raise growth and inflation forecasts this week. In their view, the hiking cycle will start in June. The SNB's rate decision is announced Thursday at 08:30 GMT. Swiss currency has been driven so far by rising risk aversion amid the events in Japan and the Middle East. The pair USD/CHF renewed yesterday the record minimum falling to 0.9140. The pair EUR/CHF is down from February maximums in the 1.3200 area trading currently in the 1.2840 region. Economists at Goldman Sachs note that although domestic economic situation clearly argues for a monetary tightening, recent geopolitical tensions have increased the risk of safe haven capital flows into the franc. So, the analysts continue to expect the SNB’s first hike in September. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6558

"MIG Bank: EUR/USD is forming the “double top”"(2011-03-15) Technical analysts at MIG Bank note that the pair EUR/USD was once again rejected in the psychological 1.40 zone and is now forming minor “double top” near this level. Support levels are found at the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3730 and 61.8% at 1.3660. The close lower will mean that euro may test February 22 minimum at 1.3525. According to the bank, bearish pressure on the pair will ease only when the rate gets above 1.40. In such case EUR/USD will get chance to rise to 1.4085/1.4116 and 1.4265/1.4285. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6550

"Goldman Sachs: USD/JPY may drop below 80 yen"(2011-03-15) Currency strategists at Goldman Sachs claim that as the pair USD/JPY is trading in wide range with current rate close to its lower border and with high volatility, it may renew the record minimum below 80.00. The last time the Bank of Japan intervened at the currency market was in September 2010. The central bank aimed not to let the national currency appreciate too much. The intervention was conducted when dollar’s rate fell below the 83 yen level. Although the BoJ spent several trillion yen to buy US currency, the outcome was far from expected – USD/JPY fell to 80.20/25 in November and rose only to 81.15 by the end of the year. Goldman believes that after the earthquake that occurred on March 11 the country’s monetary authorities will do everything they can to prevent yen from gaining. Japanese officials have already demonstrated their intention to ensure stability at financial markets. If USD/JPY goes sharply down, the central bank will likely intervene once again even though now the focus is on the quantitative easing. The strategists note that the 80 en level remains the key one for the bank of Japan. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6548

"Commerzbank: USD/JPY will keep trading between 80.00/84.00"(2011-03-15) Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the pair USD/JPY was very volatile during the recent sessions fluctuating between 80.60 and 82.00 yen on the concerns about the consequences of Japan’s earthquake. The specialists, however, believe that in the longer-term the greenback won’t leave the range between 80.00 and 84.00 yen. According to Commerzbank, support is situated between the 5-month support line at 81.44, February minimum at 81.10, January minimum at 80.93 and current March minimum at 80.61. The strategists say that as long as US dollar is trading above November minimum at 80.23, the trend will be sideways. Resistance levels are found at 55-day MA at 82.47, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from September to November at 83.15 and Friday’s maximum at 83.31. If USD/JPY overcomes these levels, it will face 6-month resistance line at 83.65 and February maximum at 83.99. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6545

FBS 999 contest has been kicked off! FBS 999 Demo contest has been kicked off and 533 contestants took part so far. The contest will remain open for one month from 15.03.11 to 15.04.11. We hope a healthy trading competition and fabolous prizes are yet to unleash for our esteemed participants. We wish best of luck to all of you. To check participants visit here: http://www.fbs.com/contest/999/participants?type=cur Regards, FBS Holdings Inc.

FBS opened the first office in Malaysia! We are glad to announce that on the 7th of March in Petaling Jaya, the major business and financial center of Malaysia, there was an official opening of the first representative office of the brokerage company FBS. The work of the new office is aimed at the full support of customers and partners of FBS. Training courses and seminars on Forex trading will be regularly conducted by our company in this office. Also all the traders will have an opportunity to trade right there in the office together with other investors and share their trading experience. An additional advantage is a convenient deposit/withdrawal from trader’s trading account directly in office of FBS. The address of the representative office of FBS in Petaling Jaya: No 21-2 Jalan Sepah Puteri 5/1B, Seri Utama Trade Center, Kota Damansara, 47810 Petaling Jaya. The doors of the office of FBS in Petaling Jaya is always opened for you! You are welcome, our dear traders! Stay connected with FBS because its all about you!

"The outlook for EUR/CHF"(2011-03-14) Analysts at UBS claim that the European currency may advance versus Swiss franc after the European leaders decided to expand the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) to 440 billion euro. In addition, the money-market rate differentials between the euro zone and Switzerland are likely to widen soon. However, it’s very likely that the impact of euro-positive factors may be limited due to the rising risk aversion on international financial market. Technical forecast Specialists at Barclays Capital note that the pair EUR/USD jumped from the daily Ichimoku Cloud support and the channel base in the 1.2800/30 area. In their view, the pair may go slowly up to 1.3140 and 1.3200. In the near-term euro is expected to trade between 1.2830 and 1.3040. Analysts at BNP Paribas, on the other hand, advise investors to use rebounds to close long position and await a deeper pullback before reestablishing bullish strategies. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6537

"Results of EU leaders meeting encouraged investors"(2011-03-14) The European currency advanced versus the greenback from Friday’s minimum 1.3750 getting above 1.3950. European authorities will allow the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) to spend its full 440 billion-euro ($613 billion) capacity. Earlier the EFSF spending was limited by 250 billion euro. It’s necessary to note, though, that EFSF funds can’t be used to purchase bonds of problem euro zone nations. A final agreement is scheduled on March 24-25 summit. Investors regarded such agreement as a breakthrough. Analysts at ANZ National Bank claim that such news more than exceeded the market’s expectations, so that will be positive for euro. In their view, taking into account the fact that the ECB intends to lift up the interest rates in April, it’s quite likely that euro will break though the key $1.40 level in the near-term. Analysts at Societe Generale note that as long as the pair EUR/USD holds above the short-term support line at 1.3855, it can return to last Monday's maximum at 1.4040 and even to the 1.4285-1.4305 area. On March 17 there will be the meeting of European Central Bank’s governing council. Chart.H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6536

"Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD"(2011-03-14) The single currency rose from Friday’s minimum 1.3745 getting above 1.3950. Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the pair EUR/USD found resistance at the 1.3978 level representing 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from November maximums to January minimums. In their view, it will be very difficult for euro to overcome this level and it will fail in the 1.3978/1.4038 area. In this case, the euro zone’s currency will drop to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3739 on its way down to 1.3571/52. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6535

"Outlook for Aussie from HSBC, NAB and CBA"(2011-03-14) Analysts at HSBC claim that the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t raise the benchmark interest rate from the current 4.75% level until June or August, while earlier they were looking forward to the rate hike in May. In their view, minutes of the RBA last meeting released tomorrow will show that the central bank is satisfied with current situation. In addition, weaker labor market data released so far suggests that Australia’s monetary authorities won’t hurry to lift up interest rates. According to HSBC, by the end of the year the rates will be raised by 50 basis points. Strategists at National Australia Bank say that markets are adjusting their rate-hike expectations downwards. Investors’ sentiment about Aussie worsened due to the concerns that Japan’s economic situation may affect Australia in the next months. Analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia expect the pair AUD/JPY to decline. In their view, this may happen mainly due to the strength of Japan’s currency than due to the weakness of Australia’s one. Yen will be pushed up by repatriation by Japanese insurance firms. According to CBA, the pair AUD/USD won’t be affected much unless there will be a threat to global economic growth outlook. Australia’s dollar went down from $1.0158 to the $1.0090 area and hit minimum versus yen since January 31 at 81.43. According to Credit Suisse AG index based on swaps, the RBA will boost its target rate by 17 basis points over the next 12 months, while a month ago the index showed 36 bps increases. Chart. H4 AUD/USD Chart. H4 AUD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6533

"IFR Markets: USD/JPY will firstly fall and the rebound"(2011-03-14) Strategists at Thomson Reuters IFR Markets claim that yen’s repatriation is inevitable as companies rebuild their plans, insurance companies pay out and Japanese retail investors will also probably sell foreign currencies and buy into the rising risk aversion. The specialists believe the pair USD/JPY will be poised to go down to the record minimum at 79.75 yen. In their view, there will be an intervention, at least verbal, if the rate gets down close to 80 yen or below this level, that may happen in the short term due to this knee-jerk reaction to the disaster we're seeing unfold in Japan. In the longer term dollar’s rate may reverse up, says IFR Markets. Any spike down in USD/JPY should be used to buy the greenback in the medium term, as strong yen is against the interests of Japanese monetary authorities and they will intervene to prevent such outcome. IFR Markets expects that the Bank of Japan may continue monetizing debt buying government bonds (JGBs). The economists also note that it’s important whether the attitude of the ratings agencies towards Japanese government bonds will change as Japan’s officials have significantly increased spending that means that the nation’s fiscal state is going to deteriorate. The analysts also draw investors’ attention to the speculation that some of the companies in Japan that hold huge amounts of country’s papers may start selling JGBs considering foreign assets as safe haven. As a result, USD/JPY may firstly drop and then in several weeks make a strong advance. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6531

"Bank of Japan adds liquidity to the markets"(2011-03-14) According to Bloomberg, the Bank of Japan added a total of 15 trillion yen ($183 billion) to the financial system today in three separate same-day emergency operations. The BOJ also said it will offer to buy 3 trillion yen in Japanese government bonds with repurchase agreements in an operation that starts on March 16 and ends the next day. Moreover, the central bank pledged to add 3 trillion yen to the system from March 15 to March 22 and 800 billion from March 16 to June 10 through regular operations. Yen firstly surged today to maximum since November 9 at 80.61 yen after stocks fell and on the concerns that domestic investors will buy the national currency to compensate the damage made by the earthquake. Strategists at UBS believe that the greenback will stay under pressure versus yen during the next few weeks due to the massive yen’s repatriation. BOJ actions helped to lift the pair USD/JPY above the 82 yen level. Analysts at Commerzbank claim that the bank will continue operations until the demand for yen significantly and the markets calm down. Economists at Nomura say that the earthquake has increased the risk the economy won’t be able to start growing more rapidly, which many believed would happen this quarter. Chart. H4 USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6528

Time is running quickly So, hurry! You have chance to win fabulous prizes with FBS keep participate in 999 contest. Today is last day for pre-registration of the 999 contest . Don’t miss your chance to participate and win! 1st prize – 555 USD 2nd prize – 333 USD 3rd prize – 111 USD Read more about “999”: http://www.fbs.com/contest/999 OR Stay connected with FBS because its all about you:)

"Loonie weakened on poor Canada’s employment data"(2011-03-11) The greenback jumped to 2-month maximum versus its Canadian counterpart at 0.9800 retreating to 0.9780. Loonie that performed well so far was weakened by Canadian employment report. Resistance levels for the pair USD/CAD are found at 0.9796 (21-day MA), 0.9805 (February 28 maximum) and 0.9831 (February 25 maximum). Support levels lie at 0.9684 (March 10 minimum), 0.9667 (March 9 minimum) and 0.9649 (Bollinger Band base). According to the data released today, Canadian economy added in February only 15,100 jobs compared to 69,200 in January. Overall, the Canadian employment rate stayed unchanged at 7.8%. Chart. H4 USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6524

"Scotia Bank: Canadian dollar may keep strengthening"(2011-03-11) Canadian dollar rose on March 9 to 3-year maximum versus its US counterpart helped by higher oil prices. Remember that Canada is the world's fourth-largest oil exporter. In addition, the market believes that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates before the Federal Reserve. As Canada's economy is closely tied to the American one, loonie is expected to gain on encouraging fundamentals in the US. Analysts at Scotia Bank claim that among the downside risks for Canada’s currency there are possible spike in the risk aversion that would make investors turn to US dollars, more hawkish approach of the Fed and economic weakness in Canada. However, the specialists believe that positive factors for loonie will dominate the market. In their view, the pair USD/CAD will fall to 0.9524 by the year-end and to 0.9260 by the end of 2012. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6520

"HSBC: GBP/USD may drop to 1.55"(2011-03-11) Currency strategists at HSBC Holdings advise investors to sell pound versus US dollar. In their view, 3.8% advance of the pair GBP/USD this year on the expectations of the Bank of England’s rate hike is unjustified. Sterling’s got overvalued, claim the specialists. According to HSBC, pound’s rate will fall to 1.55 in the next 3-4 months. The BOE decided yesterday to keep its benchmark rate at a record low of 0.5% as policy makers chose to set aside concerns on rising inflation pressures to support the UK economic recovery. GBP/USD fell from March 2 maximum at 1.6343 to today’s minimum at 1.5976. Chart. H4 GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6517