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"Fund managers expect US dollar to decline"(2011-05-25) Even though US currency added 4% since the end of April the world’s best bond fund managers share the negative outlook for the greenback. Analysts at Pimco expect USD to weaken versus range of currencies in emerging markets and selected developed countries such as Australia and Norway. Strategists at OppenheimerFunds note that the long-term economic fundamentals for dollar still look very bad. All in all, the specialists say that though US dollar may rise occasionally, investors will leave the United States for the next several years attracted by faster economic growth, higher interest rates and healthier government finances to other markets. American currency is thought to remain under pressure as the Fed might keep the interest rates at the record minimum for an extended period of time. The greenback declined by 12% versus the basket of currencies during the past year reaching 3-year minimum on April 29. It’s necessary to mention, however, that some analysts point out that there has become too many dollar bears. For instance, John Taylor, the head of world’s largest currency-hedge fund FX Concepts, however, thinks that the advance of higher-yielding assets will finish in July. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7416

"Morgan Stanley: default and restructuring in Greece are unlikely"(2011-05-25) Last week Fitch Ratings cut Greece's rating from BB+ to B+, 4 levels below investment grade. Strategists at Morgan Stanley think that an outright default or restructuring of Greece’s debt is won’t happen this year. Although the specialists aren’t ruling out the potential “reprofiling” of the Greek debt – new term first used by Jean-Claude Junker on May 17 that means the extension on Greek bonds’ maturities. However, such outcome also seems to be unlikely, says Morgan Stanley. Analysts at Credit Suisse think that the European authorities won’t let Greece restructure its debt in the near term as no one wants to risk having another shock like that created by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. According to Morgan Stanley, what’s happening in Greece depends on political decisions, not just economic ones. Angela Merkel said last week that the restructuring is out of the question. However, the European authorities are not yet ready to make distinct steps to resolve the region’s problems. MS believes that some of the uncertainty seen so far is going to dissipate. The specialists think that euro may appreciate during a month from now. They advise investors to be cautious but ready to establish long euro positions again as dollar may be affected by the weak US economic data. As for the United States, the interest rates are not going anywhere until there is either strong inflation or strong growth numbers that one certainly can’t expect to see during the next few weeks. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7411

"Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD"(2011-05-25) Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the pair EUR/USD is finding support ahead of its 200-day MA at $1.40 and the Cloud base at 1.3975. The specialists regard the current dynamics of the single currency as consolidation. All the attempts of the bulls to move higher were limited by the downtrend resistance line from May 5 maximum at 1.4195 and 1.4305/45. In their view, euro is poised sown to the 1.3770 level representing 38.2% retracement of the advance in 2010-2011. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7409

"Nomura: buy loonie versus yen"(2011-05-25) Analysts at Nomura Holdings advise investors to buy Canadian dollar versus yen as they expect that the Bank of Canada will raise the borrowing costs from 1% to 1.75% by the year-end, while Japan’s central bank will keep interest rates at the record low as Japanese economy is in a recession after March 11 earthquake. In addition, the specialists think that the Asian nation’s trade surplus is going to narrow. The pair CAD/JPY has already gained 3.1% this year. It returned to the levels in the 83.78 area after hitting 6-week minimum of 82.32 yen on May 5. According to Nomura, it’s necessary to buy loonie at 83.65 yen, stopping at 82 and taking profit between 87 and 88. The next meeting of Canada’s central bank will take place on May 31. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7407

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"Commerzbank: forecast on EUR/CHF and SNB rate"(2011-05-25) Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the outlook for the European currency versus Swiss franc is either neutral or negative. In their view, the advance of the pair EUR/CHF will be limited by resistance 1.2485 and 1.2661. The specialists expect euro to fall to 1.2280 in the near term. As for the longer time period, the bank says that if the single currency breaks below this level will bring sterling down to the 1.2015 level that represents the base of the 4-year down channel and a psychological support level. According to Commerzbank, the Swiss National Bank won’t intervene at the currency market to stop the appreciation of the national currency versus euro. If the EUR/CHF drops more or hovers at the current levels, the SNB will hold the borrowing costs at the record minimum until September. The strategists underline that the goal of the last SNB’s intervention was to eliminate rising deflation risks and now there are no such. On the contrary, Switzerland’s central bank may lift up inflation forecasts at its meeting in June, notes Commerzbank. Chart. H4 EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7405

"Analysts’ comments on Italian debt"(2011-05-24) Standard & Poor’s has changed the outlook for Italian debt to negative. As Italy is the euro area’s third largest economy, the analysts certainly can’t remain ignorant to such move of the rating agency trying to estimate the danger of the nation’s contagion with the debt crisis. Economists at Brown Brothers Harman claim that although they expect the credit rating of peripheral euro zone states to undergo further downgrades this year, the specialists don’t see enough grounds for S&P to cut the estimate of Italian debt. The economists underlined that Italy’s debt figures remained high but stable during the latest crisis, while the debts of other European nation surged. According to BBH, there’s the risk of downgrades of Belgium and France. Analysts at Societe Generale sound more pessimistic as they speak about the possibilities of default. In their view, while Greece, Ireland and Portugal may default in the short term, Italy and Spain are for now out of such risk. The bank points out that unless market conditions improve, the situation in the euro area could get even worse. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7400

"Commerzbank: negative outlook for GBP/USD"(2011-05-24) British pound went down from 1.6300 getting yesterday below 1-year uptrend line at 1.6096/78. Then the pair GBP/USD managed to find support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6054. Technical analysts at Commerzbank, however, think that sterling’s recovery won’t last long. In their view, the pair won’t be able to overcome 1.6236. The specialists expect British currency to drop under 1.6000 towards 1.5935 and the 55-week MA at 1.5700. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7398

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"Aussie rebounds though uncertainty is still high"(2011-05-24) Australian dollar managed to recover after yesterday’s slump versus its American counterpart. Aussie was helped by the advance of commodities that account for the major part of Australia’s exports: copper gained 1% in London and oil increased by 0.6% in New York. The market was also influenced by the comments from Goldman Sachs: the analysts expect oil, copper and zinc prices to go up. However, specialists at Chuo Mitsui Trust & Banking warn that the market will keep being very unstable. The euro zone’s debt woes are going to remain in the center of investors’ attention. In their view, commodity currencies will decline versus safe havens such as US dollar and Japanese yen. The pair AUD/USD is up in the 1.0560 area after sliding from Friday’s maximum at 1.0710 to Monday’s minimum of 1.0478. Chart. H4 AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7396

"UBS: SNB won’t raise rates in the near future"(2011-05-24) Currency strategists at UBS claim that the Swiss National Bank won’t lift up interest rates as long as the national currency is very strong versus euro. As a result, the specialists think that franc’s appreciation to the record highs against the single currency is only temporary. In their view, the European Central Bank as opposed to the SNB will continue tightening monetary policy this year when the situation at the peripheral euro zone bond markets stabilizes. As for the near term, uncertainty about the future of Greece and other indebted European nations will keep the pair EUR/CHF under negative pressure, believes UBS. Chart. H4 EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7394

"Mizuho: Swiss franc will renew highs versus US dollar"(2011-05-24) Technical analysts at Mizuho Securities claim that Swiss franc may rise to the record high trading versus the greenback. In their view, the pair USD/CHF is in the clear downtrend. US dollar was constrained by the resistance line connecting maximums of February 11, April 1 and May 16. On May 4 American currency hit the all-time minimum of 0.8552. The specialists underline that the pair has been staying below the bearish Ichimoku Cloud since February 17. According to Mizuho, USD/CHF is moving down to 0.85 or 0.80. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7392

"The market’ risk appetite is declining"(2011-05-23) Demand for best-performing currencies of 2011 such as Australian dollar and Norwegian krone is declining ahead of the end of the Fed’s QE2 in June on the back of the global economy showdown. According to Barclays, world’s economy will add 4.1% this year after 4.9% growth in 2010. Morgan Stanley looks forward to 4.2% figure. One also shouldn’t forget the recession in Japan and the euro area’s debt woes that affect investors' risk sentiment. John Taylor, the head of the world’s largest currency-hedge fund FX Concepts, says that the rally of the risk appetite that began in the first half of 2009 is now coming to an end. Specialists at UBS note that the carry trade strategy led in May to 1.52% loss. Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities has erased this month its entire advance since the middle of March, while the MSCI World Index of stocks dropped by 3.37%. In these circumstances investors are buying the greenback that rose versus all of its 16 main counterparts in May. Standard Life Investments think US currency is quite likely to keep climbing. However, it’s necessary to be cautious with dollar as its strengthening may be limited because the Federal Reserve will likely keep the interest rates at the record minimum. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7389

"Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD"(2011-05-23) The single currency didn’t manage to overcome resistance in the 1.4345 area on Friday slumping today on the concerns about the European debt crisis. Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the trend on the weekly chart has reversed. In their view, euro will keep declining. The specialists think that if the pair EUR/USD breaks down through the 200-week MA at 1.4000, it will be poised down to 1.3770 on its way towards 1.3463/1.3390 (55-week MA and the 11-month support line). According to Commerzbank, on the upside the pair’s advance will be limited by 1.4340/46 and 1.4425/65. Chart. Weekly EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7386

"Reuters poll: how the market will behave after the end of QE2?"(2011-05-23) As the end of the Fed’s QE2 planned in June approaches, the markets are speculation on how it will influence the future dynamics of US dollar. It’s necessary to note that the QE2 has an enormous psychological meaning seen as the sing of the Fed’s commitment to support the economy. Reuters’ poll of 64 analysts and fund managers shows that investors expect stocks, bonds, gold and euro to fall in 3 months after the Federal Reserve's $600-bilion bond buying program expires in June. Investors fear that when the Fed stops supporting the market, investments that have been profitable for the last 9 months will plummet undermining the confidence in the nation’s economic recovery. 40 respondents believe that the end of quantitative easing will send up 10-year Treasury yields. 36 of surveyed experts claim that the markets ware to become more volatile. 38 participants think that US dollar will rise versus euro. At least half of the respondents expect oil and gold prices to fall further in the third quarter. Nearly half of participants also expect US and emerging markets stocks to fall (Standard & Poor's 500 index and the MSCI Emerging Market stock index). According to the median forecast from 59 economists, the probability of a third round of quantitative easing is estimated only by 10%. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7384

"EUR/CHF hit the record minimum"(2011-05-23) The single currency fell today to the record minimum trading versus Swiss franc at 1.2346. Euro slumped due to the concerns about the euro area’s debt crisis as Spain’s leading Socialist party suffered its worst electoral defeat in more than 30 years. In Spain the ruling Socialists got only 28% of the votes, while the opposition People’s Party won 38%. Spanish population seems very dissatisfied with soaring unemployment and spending cuts. At the same time in Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party slumped to third place in a state election in Bremen as many people disapprove the bailout policy. In addition, Standard & Poor’s warned on May 20 about the potential Italy’s downgrade, while Fitch Ratings lowered Greece’s long-term debt ranking to B+ that is 4 steps below the investment grade. So, there is plenty of euro-negative news. Technical analysts at Commerzbank think that the pair EUR/CHF will drop to 1.2313, the base of 2-month downtrend channel. Chart. H4 EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7382

"Credit Agricole: market’s sentiment for EUR/USD has worsened"(2011-05-23) Currency strategists at Credit Agricole note that the market’s sentiment about the pair EUR/USD has significantly changed in the unfavorable for euro direction. The specialists note that the dynamics of the single currency versus the greenback for a long time was determined solely by the interest rate differential between the euro area and the United States. However, the focus has so far once again switched to the European debt crisis. Analysts also remind that the Federal Reserve’s second round of quantitative easing will soon be over. It’s clear from the last FOMC meeting minutes that US monetary authorities have already begun thinking about the best exit strategy they can employ. As a result, the bank believes that dollar will get support on this point. According to Credit Agricole, euro will stay under negative pressure unless it returns to the levels above 1.4520. For the European currency to return to the recent maximums some large bids or positive events are needed. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7380

"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF"(2011-05-23) Weekly USD/CHF The bears erases all the advanced that has been made the week earlier, Tenkan-sen (1) – the 9-week MA – acted as resistance and didn’t let the prices to move higher. The bearish Cloud is still wide. The lines of the Indicator are directed horizontally (1, 2, 3 and 4). The rate is expected to consolidate in the area of the Turning line. Chart. Weekly USD/CHF Daily USD/CHF Tenkan-sen (2) and Kijun-sen (1), as it was expected, formed the “golden cross”. The Standard line will act as support for the prices. The greenback may once again try to correct rising to the recent interim maximums. At the same time, dollar’s advance will certainly be limited as the descending Ichimoku Cloud (3) is still creating negative pressure for the pair. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7372

"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY"(2011-05-23) Weekly USD/JPY Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen that for a long time moved horizontally being merged in one line and the Turning line went sharply up (1). The prices managed to overcome the Standard line (2). The descending Ichimoku Cloud (3) begins narrowing that indicates that the bears grow weaker. Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Daily USD/JPY Tenkan-sen (2) и and Kijun-sen (1) are moving to meet each other and form the “golden cross”. The prices got support from the Turning line and the lower border of the Cloud and began moving up towards Senkou Span “A”. Despite the fact that there was a “shooting star” formed on Thursday the outlook seems to be rather positive for US currency. It’s recommended to buy the greenback. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7371

"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2011-05-23) The trend for GBP/USD remains neutral. All lines of the Indicator remain horizontal. The standard line acts as support for pound (1), while the Turning line provides the resistance (2). Chinkou Span recoiled upwards from the price chart – the bullish signal (3). The “golden cross” formed by Tenkan and Kijun above Kumo is still in place (4). The rising Ichimoku Cloud is still rather wide that means that the bulls stay rather strong. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD Last week the thin bullish Ichimoku Cloud nevertheless managed to support the prices. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen that keep holding the “dead cross’ in place (though the signal isn’t strong as the figure was formed below the Ichimoku Cloud) will provide resistance for the pair. He trend is sideways. Note that the thin Cloud looks vulnerable. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7370

"UBS: comments on AUD/USD"(2011-05-20) Aussie managed to recover versus its US counterpart so far rising from the levels in the 1.5000 region to the 1.0680 zone. Analysts at UBS claim that as long as Australian dollar is trading below resistance in the 1.0717 area the outlook for the pair AUD/USD will remain negative. The specialists say that on the downside the target levels for Australia’s currency are found at 1.0505 and 1.0443. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7365

"Goldman Sachs increased NZD/USD forecast"(2011-05-20) Analysts at Goldman Sachs increased their forecasts for the pair NZD/USD. According to the specialists, even though New Zealand’s dollar is significantly overvalued it will be stronger versus its American counterpart then they have projected earlier due to the improving economic recovery in the country and persistent weakness of the greenback. The 3-month target for kiwi was lifted up from $0.75 to $0.78 and the 12-month prediction – from $0.76 to $0.78. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, expect New Zealand’s currency to end the year at $0.76. Chart. Daily NZD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7363

"Mizuho: forecasts for EUR/USD and GBP/USD"(2011-05-20) Analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that during the last 5 days British pound was trading sideways versus its US counterpart getting support from the daily Ichimoku Cloud and Fibonacci retracement levels. The specialists say that the outlook for the pair GBP/USD will become bullish if it closes the week above 1.6350. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Economists think that euro’s advance is temporary. In their view, upward move of the pair EUR/USD will be limited by concerns about the possibility of debt restructuring in Greece. As a result, according to Mizuho, euro is likely fall below $1.40 staying under pressure during the next month. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7360

"BofT-Mitsubishi UFJ: US dollar will keep rising versus yen"(2011-05-20) Analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ think that US dollar’s recent uptrend versus Japanese yen may continue. In their view, the trade may shift higher to the range between 81.00 and 82.50. The specialists note that USD/JPY may be encouraged by the better-than-expected American economic data as it was yesterday when the nation’s economy posted only 409,000 initial jobless claims during the week before May 14, down from 438,000 the week earlier. As there is not much selling pressure from Japan exporters in recent weeks following the March 11 earthquake, there aren’t many factors to stop dollar’s advance. According to the bank, it’s necessary to pay attention to US bond auctions scheduled on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday as investors tend to watch the moves of US Treasury yields. Chart. H4 USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7358

"CBA: Australian companies expect AUD/USD to advance"(2011-05-20) Commonwealth Bank of Australia conducted survey among Australia’s small and medium companies. The nation’ exporters think that by September Aussie will reach maximum at $1.16. In their view, their position is very unfavorable as this level is situated 25% above the mark when they lost price competitiveness. The survey showed that 48% of Australian exporters are going to hedge their currency exposure over the next 3 months selling A$5 million ($5.3 million)-A$500 million a year. Australia’s importers believe the pair AUD/USD will peak at $1.14 by the end of 2011. Analysts at Commonwealth Bank sum up noting that Australian enterprises expect the national currency to stay significantly above the parity this year and at the beginning of 2012 renewing its post-float record highs. Australian dollar has added 31% against its US counterpart during the past year rising from $0.8072 on May 21, 2010 to $1.1012 on May 2, 2011. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7356