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"Deutsche Bank: pound drops on MPC minutes"(2011-06-22) British pound fell to the 2-week minimum versus the greenback in the 1.6110 area. According to the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee June meeting released today, the policymakers voted 7-2 to keep the benchmark interest rate at the record minimum of 0.5%. In May the division of opinions was 6-3. Strategists at Deutsche Bank regard the minutes as dovish. The central bank seems determined to keep the borrowing costs low in order to help the national economy recover. As a result, the specialists expect sterling to stay under negative pressure versus its US counterpart. Support levels for the pair GBP/USD are found at 1.6109 and 1.6078. Resistance levels for pound lies at 1.6264, 1.6333 and 1.6383. The new member of MPC Ben Broadbent, who has replaced hawkish Andrew Sentance, voted with the majority to leave interest rates on hold. As a result, only Spencer Dale and Martin Weale are left voting for a hike and even they agreed that the recent economic data as very weak. Strategists at Daiwa Capital Markets don’t expect MPC to raise rates this year. Economists at Investec and Societe General pointed out that some of the MPC officials are talking about the possible need for more asset purchases. Chart. H4 GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7694

"BNP Paribas, Societe Generale about euro's rebound"(2011-06-22) Economists at BNP Paribas expect EUR/USD to rebound to $1.4500 in the short term. The banks says that the obstacles for euro seem to be much less great after Germany agreed to make significant concessions on the terms of the second bailout package for Greece and Papandreou's government won its confidence vote. According to BNP Paribas, if the Greek budget is passed in parliament next week, risk currencies and euro will surge. Strategists at FX Concepts, the world’s largest currency hedge fund, say that resistance for EUR/USD is found at $1.4470 and $1.4495. In their view, these levels will hold euro’s advance this week. The next week, however, the pair may strengthen to $1.4585. The outlook for the European currency will become negative if it closes below $1.4160. However, the specialists believe that any aggressive weakness will be postponed for two weeks or so. Analysts at Societe Generale claim that for the single currency to climb to $1.5000 versus the greenback there should be 3 factors: firstly, the successful resolution of the Greek crisis for a few months at least; secondly, confirmation that US economy is going through the “soft patch” and nothing more serious, and, finally, the evidence that Chinese monetary tightening cycle has approached the end. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7692

"Morgan Stanley: currency forecasts revised"(2011-06-22) Analysts at Morgan Stanley revised down forecasts for some major currency pairs by the end of the year: - For EUR/USD – from 1.49 to 1.36; - For AUD/USD – from 1.12 to 1.01; - For GBP/USD – from 1.62 to 1.49. The specialists note that euro area’s economic outlook has deteriorated as the leading indicators tend to decline, investments inflows are slowing down. As a result, the single currency is going to stay under pressure. In addition, the concerns about global growth are strengthening that’s affecting pro-cyclical and commodity currencies. According to the bank, demand for the greenback in the second half of the year will be rather high. However, US rising debt burden makes Morgan Stanley doubt whether American currency will be able to keep rebounding in 2012. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7690

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"BMO: trade recommendations ahead of FOMC"(2011-06-21) The 2-day FOMC meeting begins today. It’s drawing special investors’ attention as this is the last one before the end of QE2. Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch claim that though the Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke will sound a little more cautious about the economic outlook, he will remain stick to the forecast that the nation’s economy will rebound in the second half of the year. In their view, the $600-billion bond purchasing program will finish as planned and US monetary authorities will switch to the neutral monetary policy. Strategists at BMO Capital Markets note that after the last three Fed’s meetings spreads between US and Australian 2-year bonds widened. As a result, the specialists recommend buying Australian dollar and selling the greenback at $1.06 stopping at $1.05 and taking profit at $1.09. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7674

"Deutsche Bank: USD/CHF will reverse upwards"(2011-06-21) Analysts at Deutsche Bank think that US dollar might have reached a bottom trading versus Swiss franc when it hit the record minimum of 0.8326 on June 7. The specialists expect the downtrend for the pair USD/CHF to reverse upwards. In their view, the greenback will be experiencing the steady recovery during the next year. According to the bank, US currency will rise to 0.9300 by the end of the third quarter and to 0.9800 by the end of 2011. The next year the pair may get above the parity climbing to 1.0500 in 12 months. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7672

"Commerzbank, Societe Generale: risks for EUR/USD"(2011-06-21) The single currency went down from Friday’s maximums in the 1.4340 area to find support yesterday at the levels in the 1.4200 region before returning back up close to 1.4400. Technical analysts at Commerzbank regard the recent advance of EUR/USD as a correction. In their view, the general outlook for euro remains negative in the short and medium terms and the pair won’t be able to rise above 6-week resistance line at 1.4600. Strategists at Societe Generale also claim that euro’s move up is fragile. According to the bank, the pair risks revisiting may minimum of 1.3970. The specialists think that EUR/USD is consolidating so far after the decline from 1.4700. Societe Generale expects that after a short pause euro will resume going down. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7670

DBS: risk-off sentiment of the global markets"(2011-06-21) Analysts at DBS Group note that investors are looking forward to Ben Bernanke’s press conference on Wednesday hoping that the Fed’s Chairman will reassure the market that American economic activity will pick up in the second half of the year. The specialists claim that Asian currencies excluding Japanese yen got under negative pressure since May as the pace world’s economic recovery eased down in the second quarter. The slowdown is due to mainly the deterioration at the US housing and labor markets and Japanese weakness after the March quakes. The overall investors’ sentiment worsened even though there appeared some hope about a resolution to the Greek debt crisis. According to DBS, when Greece meets its obligations by the July, the market’s attention may rapidly turn to US debt ceiling debate ahead of August 2 deadline. As American debt is increasing faster than the nation’s economy the US may lose its AAA rating and go through a frustratingly slow recovery. Comment here DBS: risk-off sentiment of the global markets

"Morgan Stanley: dollar will rebound in the second half of 2011"(2011-06-21) Analysts at Morgan Stanley expect US dollar to rebound during the second half of the year as Asian central banks from China to India raise interest rates to curb inflation, damping economic growth and demand for the region’s assets. The specialists underline that liquidity conditions start to change at a macro level and the global investment environment is becoming less favorable. As a result, investors’ demand for US dollar will strengthen. According to Morgan Stanley, Swiss franc will also benefit from this process, while Japanese yen will get support in the short term, though in the longer perspective it will suffer from the consequences of March earthquake. Another positive factor for US currency is the end of the Federal Reserve’s QE2 program. In addition, less demand for assets in the Asian nations will reduce selling pressure on dollar linked to the carry trade that involved selling dollars to buy the currencies of Norway, Australia, Canada and New Zealand. The Federal Reserve’s U.S. Trade-Weighted Major Currency Dollar Index lost 12% this year hitting the all-time minimum of 68.2405 on May 2. The People’s Bank of China lifted up reserve requirement ratio last week to a record 21.5% for the biggest lenders. The Reserve Bank of India raised interest rates 10 times since the start of 2010. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7666

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"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2011-06-20) Weekly GBP/USD Last week the pair GBP/USD was trading in a volatile way: there was the bearish candle with very long upper shadow and significant lower one formed on the price chart, so that it’s possible to say that the confrontation between bulls and bears was tough. Tenkan-sen still acts as resistance, while Kijun-sen is playing the role of support. The “golden cross” made by Tenkan (1) and Kijun (2) above Kumo remains in place. The rising Ichimoku Cloud keeps being rather wide (3) indicating that the bulls haven’t given up their positions. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD The outlook for GBP/USD based on the daily chart has deteriorated – Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen that formed the “golden cross” the week before last have crossed once again, this time for the “dead cross” (1). The situation is unstable – this can be observed as the Ichimoku Cloud (3) remains extremely thin – neither bulls, nor bears are able to take over the market. The prices went down below the trend line and the momentum is bearish. At the same time, the Standard line is moving horizontally and Friday’s “hammer” figure means that he pair is trying to form a base at the current levels, so we see the potential for the rate’s consolidation and the bulls strengthening their positions. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7640

"Greece: shift in the government"(2011-06-17) Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou replaced his finance minister with his main socialist party rival hoping to push through the unpopular austerity plan. Analysts at UBS characterize the new comer Evangelos Venizelos who previously occupied the position of defense minister as politically powerful. In their view, Venizelos will be able to conduct fiscal consolidation even though he wasn’t engaged in financial matters before. Outgoing Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou, who negotiated a first 110 billion euro bailout for Athens last year and had the confidence of international lenders and markets, was moved to the environment ministry in a crisis-driven reshuffle. At first Greek market was positive on the news: Athens stock market index gained 2%. Bond markets, however, remain unnerved the by concerns that the nation never managed to repay its debt that has reached 340 billion euro or 150% of the nation’s GDP. Just before today’s announcement the yield on 10-year Greek government bonds reached the record maximum of 18.9%. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7636

"Sarkozy and Merkel announced “breakthrough” in Greek issue"(2011-06-17) French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced after today’s meeting that there’s a “breakthrough” in solving Greece’s debt crisis: the leaders of 2 largest euro zone’s economies agreed on a new rescue package for Greece. Germany that was earlier demanding private bondholders pay a substantial share of any new bailout is going to work on the compromise deal with ECB. Analysts at RBS note that such comments helped to improve the investor’s risk sentiment. The market’s reaction was optimistic: single currency went up versus all of its main competitors on the news. The pair EUR/USD added 120 pips reaching 1.4290. Resistance for euro is found at 1.4300 (June 13 minimum), 1.4370/75 (20-day MA) and 1.4430/50 (June 13 maximums). Support levels lie at 1.4200/20 (previous maximums), 1.4125 (day minimum) and 1.4070 (June 16 minimum). Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7634

"Alan Greenspan: Greece will likely default"(2011-06-17) The former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan is almost sure that Greece will default. In his view, the chances of such outcome are “so high that you almost have to say there’s no way out”, reports Bloomberg. Greenspan says that the possibility that European politicians will manage to cope with the crisis is very low. Greek government bonds fell, while the yield on the 2-year notes reached the record maximum of more than 30%. The nation’s authorities didn’t manage to convince the population in the necessity of more austerity measures. If Greece becomes unable to repay its debts, US economy will face the high risk of recession. If Greece doesn’t default, the possibility of the US economic contraction will be low. According to Greenspan, American recovery is stemmed as businesses are concerned about the long-term outlook. The economist warns that US debt issue is becoming “horrendously dangerous” and US lawmakers probably don’t have another year or two to solve it. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7632

"Citigroup: euro will remain under pressure"(2011-06-17) Analysts at Citigroup think that if the European Union and the International Monetary Fund agree to provide Greece with another tranche of financial aid that includes 8.7 billion euro ($12.4 billion) from EU and 3.3 billion euro from the IMF in July, euro’s rebound will be modest and short-lived. The specialists think that the single currency will remain under pressure of uncertainty generated by the process. In their view, euro still faces challenges in the near term. European finance ministers will meet on June 19 after they failed to reach an accord on the next loan disbursement an emergency session two days ago. The pair EUR/USD recovered rising above $1.24 after touching yesterday the minimal levels since May 26 at $1.4073. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7630

"UBS: comments on USD/CHF"(2011-06-17) The greenback went up versus Swiss franc from Tuesday’s minimum at 0.8350, but was stopped by resistance at 0.8575. As the risk aversion strengthened, the pair USD/CHF went down to support at 0.8465. Resistance for US dollar is found at 0.8545 (June 16 maximum), 0.8595 (intra-day resistance) and 0.8665 (May 27 maximum). Support levels lie at 0.8465 (June 16 minimum), 0.8350 (June 14 minimum) and 0.8325 (June 7 minimum). Technical analysts at UBS, claim that the trend for USD/CHF will remain neutral as long as the pair is trading between 0.8443 and 0.8457. If dollar falls below 0.8443, the bearish trend will resume and dollar will be poises down to 0.8348. If US currency rises above 0.8547, it’ll be able to strengthen to 0.8639. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7628

"JPMorgan Chase, Nomura expect euro to rebound"(2011-06-17) Analysts at JPMorgan Chase and Nomura expect the single currency to rebound even despite the escalation of concerns about Greece’s future. According to JPMorgan, euro will show better results this year than dollar and yen even if the European policy makers put off agreeing on a resolution to the debt crisis as long as the situation seems to be more or less stable. The specialists believe that the market will calm down next week as the currency bloc’s leaders most probably won’t decide to do something drastic such as forcing private investors to share Greece’s debt burden by prolonging maturities. In their view, the pair EUR/JPY may climb to 120 yen this year. The bank also forecasts the pair EUR/USD to reach $1.48 by the end of December. Economists at Nomura think that the expectation of the ECB rate hikes will ease negative pressure on euro and euro’s not likely to fall into downtrend. The bank claims that the recent decline of the European currency reflects the increase in fiscal premium in the euro zone’s countries. Nomura’s forecast for euro is $1.45 and 127 yen at the end of this year. Chart. Daily EUR/JPY Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7626

Registration for “999” is open !!! Dear traders! We are happy to announce, that pre-registration for your favorite “999” demo contest has already started. It takes place from 14.06.11 to 27.06.11 The idea of “999” is very simple: each participant gets a demo account with 9999 USD balance and 1:100 leverage in it. You can trade 28 currency pairs and EAs are allowed. The winners of “999” contest will be 3 participants with the highest deposits by the end of the contest period. They will receive money prizes from FBS (555 USD, 333 USD and 111 USD). These prizes may be withdrawable from your account any time. The contestant with the lowest deposit by the end of the contest will get a special encouraging prize from FBS — free FBS MasterCard. Period of the contest: 27.06.11-27.07.11 Pre-registration for the contest: 14.06.11 – 27.06.11 Take part and win! Get all the luck! FBS (555 USD, 333 USD and 111 USD). And the contestant with the lowest balance will get an encouraging prize from us – free FB S MasterCard. Period of the contest: 27.06.11-27.07.11. Take part and become the winner! The more detailed information about the contest: http://www.fbs.com/contest/999 Use forum to discuss the contest: http://www.fbs.com/about/news/7615 Stay connected with FBS for better trading opportunities!

"HSBC, Standard Chartered: outlook for Chinese yuan"(2011-06-15) Analysts at HSBC claim that it’s very difficult to determine whether Chinese currency is under- or overvalued. The specialists note that yuan rose versus the greenback by 6.4% in real terms since June 2010, but declined slightly on a REER basis. In their view, yuan can still strengthen a bit more. The uncertainty about its fair value will keep the pair USD/CNY from any sharp moves. Strategists at Standard Chartered believe that China’s tightening cycle may be close to an end as the inflation seems to have peaked. According to the bank, the People’s Bank of China will keep the rates unchanged in the second half of this year and in the first half of 2012. Later, however, the analysts expect inflation to increase once again, so there will be more rate hikes in the second half of the next year. The economists believe that USD/CNY daily trading band will soon widen as Chinese monetary authorities will show their intent to make the exchange rate more flexible. Standard Chartered notes that yuan is likely to keep appreciating. In their view, it will gain 4.0% since end-2Q 2011 to end-2012. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7620

"Commerzbank expects EUR/USD to decline"(2011-06-15) The single currency went up from Monday’s minimum in the 1.4300 area but failed at 1.4500 returning back below 1.4400. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that euro is on its way down to support in the 1.4010/1.3968 zone. In their view, EUR/USD trend is neutral/negative after euro last week didn’t manage to overcome 78.6% retracement resistance at 1.4732. According to the bank, resistance is found at 1.4540/65, 1.4732 and at May maximum of 1.4940. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7619

"Sakakibara expects USD/JPY to fall to 75 yen"(2011-06-15) Eisuke Sakakibara former Japan’s top currency official known as “Mr. Yen” believes that Japanese yen may strengthen to 75 versus the greenback. As the reasons for such forecast the specialist cites US economic slowdown and the risk of its credit rating downgrade. Ratings agencies Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s have so far put US credit rating under review and the United States may lose its top rating unless it makes progress in solving its debt issues. Sakakibara says American lawmakers are likely to agree eventually on raising the debt ceiling in time (that’s before the deadline on August 2), so the credit ratings cut won’t be big and won’t hurt much the demand for Treasuries. The economist underlines that dollar will manage to remain the world’s primary reserve currency though it stay under pressure as the Fed will keen conducting extremely loose monetary policy. According to Sakakibara, USD/JPY trading range will shift to 75-80 yen. The expert thinks that dollar-negative factors will outweigh the risk of the “unprecedented recession” in Japan after the strongest in the nation’s history earthquake and tsunami on March 11. Sakakibara notes that Japan’s currency intervention is unlikely as the country won’t probably be able to get support from G7 as it was in March when the developed countries agreed to help weaken Japanese currency as its moves were too volatile and it had reached postwar maximum at 76.25 yen per dollar. The former official thinks that Japan’s economy won’t be affected much by the appreciation of the national currency as it will help the nation cope with rising commodity prices. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7617

Secrets of success trading from “999” winners On the 10th of June finished “999” demo-contest. We asked the winners to explain how to become successful in the world of Forex. Vladimir Rilkov: I’ve been trading for about half a year. My friend, who has considerable experience in Forex, advised me to start trading in foreign exchange market. Generally, I trade EURUSD and GBRUSD. It is difficult for me to explain why. I find “999” contest very interesting. I like the fact that the constants struggle. For me, it was the first experience of participating in such a contest, and, honestly, I didn’t think it appear to be so lucky. In trading I stick to “Pair” strategy, based on two indicators: “Paraboliс SAR” and “Fisher”. In my opinion, in order to have some positive results in trading you need to work hard, follow the prices in the market and believe in your success. Take part in contests from FBS and you are sure to be lucky! Darina Bakaeva: I’ve been trading Forex for 2 years. For me it’s not my main occupation, it’s more like hobby, though I trade in real accounts also. I learned about foreign exchange market from an advertisement, tried myself in different contests and traded in demo account. Now I have little deposit in a real account. I like trade EURJPY and GBPUSD, because, in my opinion, these currency pairs are the most dynamic and volatile. It gives you an opportunity to make a lot of money fast. In real trading I prefer Futures. It was very interesting to participate in “999” contest. Long period of the contest lets you not to run risks, in spite of the trading with “full lot”. You have enough time to choose the time for entering the market and holding a position. My strategy is simple – sell when it’s high, buy when it’s low. (laughing). I mean that I tried entering the market at the local maximum and minimum of prices. I also tried trading using fundamental news. In my trading I follow the very simple stratagem – sell at the high price and buy at the low price (Laughing). I mean, I practiced the trading on high/low price level. Moreover, I traded on news. In my opinion, successful trader needs to be calm and goal-seeking. While trading you should stick to your planned strategy, especially, if you trade with profit. Honestly, I can’t always wait for Take Profit, I want to fix my profit faster. Stop Loss is an obligatory condition. I would like to wish the beginners to have self-control. Like any other job, trading in Forex requires hard-working, probably, for a long period of time. One seldom manages to get a fortune all at once. As a rule, several losses come after the first luck. If you are stubborn and hard-working you will be definitely lucky, may be not at once. (laughing). Arman Handoyo: I’ve been trading in FBS about 2 months. I like trading with FBS as it has very stable server, and spreads are little. I was just trading EURUSD, because of the relatively small spread. In addition, this pair is my favorite. I am very pleased to be participating in “999” contest, because it can improve the quality of my trading. Strategy that I use is only price action and Fibonacci. To be successful in trading there is only 1 key, you should to control your emotions. Learn a simple system, and learn how to control emotions. Note: Pre-registration for the contest will be open since 14.06.11 till 27.06.11. Hurry up to take part and win! http://www.fbs.com/contest/999 Stay connected with FBS because its all about you!

"Citigroup: code language from the central bankers"(2011-06-14) Last week the market’s attention was focused on the central bankers with both Ben Bernanke and Jean-Claude Trichet speaking. Investors were waiting for some key words from the ECB: as the central bank’s President said “strong vigilance” about inflation euro immediately spiked. When Trichet uses the expression “very close monitoring” euro moves quite a bit. Analysts at Westpac note that as investors got used to coded messages from central banks, so it the tension escalates, the market would react violently in both cases: if the ECB’s head mentioned “strong vigilance” and if he didn’t. Strategists J.P. Morgan say that central bankers may just want to animate the dry data. Analysts at Citigroup, however, don’t agree with such opinion thinking that their actions are quite deliberate. In their view, 30 years ago the goal of monetary authorities was to surprise the markets while now the central banks, on the contrary, try to prepare investors for future developments in order to eliminate potential shocks. Sophisticated investors know exactly what “strong vigilance” meant, but individual traders may have plenty of difficulties trying to interpret the “code language” correctly. As a result, Citigroup notes that it’s much easier for retail investors to trade on such factors as high probability of ECB July rate hike based on the market’s expectations. However, on Thursday after forming a spike euro has sharply fallen. An individual trader who needs some time to understand what’s happening may be crushed in such situation. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7613

"ZKB, BNP Paribas about the possibility of SNB intervention"(2011-06-14) Economists at ZKB believe that strong franc won’t make the Swiss National Bank intervene at the currency market as Switzerland’s economy still isn’t strong enough, while the SNB’s currency reserves are already too high. The specialists note that the nation’s getting used to the strong national currency, though Swiss exports will stay under negative pressure in the second half of the year. Strategists at BNP Paribas also don’t regard the possibility of SNB intervention as strong. According to them, as the tensions between EU governments and the ECB remain, EUR/CHF may go down below 1.20. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7610