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"Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD"(2011-07-04) Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the single currency has found support in the $1.4305/1.4407 area trading versus the greenback. In their view, the chances that the pair EUR/USD will manage to hold above the important level at $1.4129 have increased. The specialists claim that further support is situated at the 200-week MA of $1.4021, the May minimum of $1.3968 and the intersection with 200-day MA of $1.3887. According to the bank, as on Friday the pair EUR/USD has closed at the top of the weekly trading range, it’s now more likely be able to break above $1.4732 and climb later to $1.4940/ $1.5145. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7829

"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF"(2011-07-04) Weekly USD/CHF On the weekly chart the pair USD/CHF kept consolidating between 0.8275 and 0.8550. The Turning line (1) and the Standard line (2) are still creating resistance for the prices. Chart. Weekly USD/CHF Daily USD/CHF On the daily chart it’s possible to see a kind of potential breakthrough – for the first time in more than a month the prices managed to close above the Standard line (2) that together with the Turning line (1) will act now as support for the pair. On the upside, declining Ichimoku Cloud – Senkou Span A – plays the role of resistance (3). The bullish signal will appear if Chinkou Span breaks above the price chart (4). The greenback will likely go up a bit more, though there are still no signs of the major downtrend reversal. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7821

"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY"(2011-07-04) Weekly USD/JPY During the last 2 weeks the pair rose, though the bulls have managed to gain only a little – US dollar was held by the Standard line and the Turning line that has come very close to the former (1). The lagging Chinkou Span (2) isn’t able to get above the price chart yet. At the same time, the descending Ichimoku Cloud is narrowing (3) that means that bears are getting weaker. It’s recommended to watch the signals. Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Daily USD/JPY On the daily chart the pair’s consolidation’s coming to an end. Kijun-sen has turned down going to meet the horizontal Tenkan-sen ready to form the “golden cross” (1). Although the bearish Ichimoku Cloud will continue pressuring the pair providing resistance for the prices, it keeps rapidly narrowing (2) as the bears’ power is decreases. As a result, if US dollar manages to overcome the Turning line and the Standard line, it may approach Kumo. At the same time, taking into account more negative situation at the weekly chart, it’s necessary to be cautious as all attempts of USD/JPY to push higher are likely to be limited for now. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7820

"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2011-07-04) Weekly GBP/USD Last week the bulls managed to force some correction of the rate – the prices went up to the Standard line that will act as resistance (1). The next obstacle for GBP/USD will be the Turning line (2) that has already begun moving down. Although the bullish Ichimoku Cloud still supports the pound, it has significantly narrowed (3). That means that the bullish players are still losing their power. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD On the daily chart the rate’s rebound made the Turning line (2) and the Standard line (1) stop declining and become horizontal. The same happened with the lines limiting Kumo – Senkou Span A and B. Never the less, the situation on the daily chart seems to be more negative than on the weekly one. Tenkan-sen (2) and Kijun-sen (1) still keep the “dead cross” formed below the Ichimoku Cloud in place – the bearish sign. The Cloud itself (3) is descending that means that the bulls are still dominating at the market. Tankan and Kijun will act as resistance for the prices. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7819

"Eurogroup decides to release vital loans to Greece"(2011-07-04) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it welcomed the Eurogroup's commitment to a financing strategy on debt-ridden Greece. Eurogroup finance ministers decided on Saturday to release the fifth tranche of loans to Greece to avoid an immediate default of the country. «We look forward to continue working with the Greek authorities and the European partners in support of the economic program that will contribute to restoring fiscal sustainability, safeguarding financial sector stability, and boosting competitiveness to create the conditions for sustained growth and employment,» noted Atkinson, IMF's chief spokeswoman. The 12-billion-euro (17.38-billion-U.S.-dollar) tranche of the four-year 110-billion-euro bailout pact that Athens secured last year to avoid default and a supplementary package under discussion over the past few weeks, are considered as essential to the rescue of the country from economic collapse. The IMF is expected to approve its share of 3.3 billion euros (4.75 billion dollars) of the fifth tranche of loans next week. But some economists insist that even a second bailout plan would not be enough to put Athens back on track since its debt load, equivalent to 150 percent of the country's gross domestic product, is just too heavy. In order not to miss anything of importance concerning the situation in Greece, here’s the list of main events of the near future prepared by economic columnists at The Guardian. Monday 11 July. Finance ministers from across Europe meet on the Greek issue. Friday 15 July. Greece has to repay 2.4 billion euro of debt and could default if it has not received the 12 billion euro aid tranche. Tuesday 19 July. 900 million euro of debt must be repaid. Wednesday 20 July. 1.5 billion euro of debt must be repaid. Friday 22 July. 1.6 billion euro of debt must be repaid. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7814

"Deutsche Bank expects US dollar to decline the next week"(2011-07-01) Analysts at Deutsche Bank believe that as the Greek parliament approved severe austerity measures needed for the nation to get financial help from the EU and the IMF, the market’s attention will return to American structural problems. The specialists expect the greenback to decline versus higher yielding currencies next week. The bank advises to sell US dollar versus a basket consisting of Australian and Canadian dollars, Swedish krona and Japanese yen. According to Deutsche Bank, one should better stay out of the pair EUR/USD for now. Chart. H4 AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7813

"BoNY Mellon, Commerzbank: reasons for euro’s strengthening"(2011-07-01) The single currency added roughly 20% versus US dollar since the Greek sovereign debt crisis first exploded a year ago. Strategists at Commerzbank say that the European debt crisis didn’t affect euro much this year as he ECB is conducting an interest rate policy that is completely independent of the situation in Greece, Portugal, Irelands and other indebted nations. Economists at Bank of New York Mellon think that euro managed to gain this much despite the euro zone’s problems as the central banks, especially Asian, tend to use the European currency to diversify their foreign exchange reserves. For example, China's accumulating nearly $600 billion worth of fresh reserves over the course of the last 12 months and a very significant part of it should have gone into euro. Never the less, the specialists doubt that euro will manage to hold at the high levels above 1.4500. As the Federal Reserve ended QE2, Bank of New York Mellon began seeing from the flow data that the flows going back into US currency. As a result, the specialists assume that the process of the money flowing away from dollars into emerging markets that are being diversified might be soon over. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7805

"Commerzbank: comments on USD/CHF"(2011-07-01) US dollar recovered from the record minimum versus Swiss franc at 0.8275 hit on Tuesday getting above 0.8450. Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that some further rebound of the pair USD/CHF is quite possible noting the recent divergence on the RSI indicator. According to the specialists, on its way up the greenback will face resistance in the 0.8547/54 zone limited by the minimum of the beginning of May and May 31 maximum. The bank says that the negative pressure on the pair will ease down only if it closes above these levels. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7803

"Ueda Harlow: bullish outlook for EUR/JPY"(2011-07-01) Technical analysts at Ueda Harlow believe that the single currency may approach next week 2-month maximum trading versus Japanese yen. The specialists note that this week the pair EUR/JPY broke above 21-day MA and the daily Ichimoku Cloud. In their view, the chart shows that the lines Senkou Span A and B that limit the Cloud are going to converge and compress Kumo at around the 116.60 yen level on around July 4. If euro enters the Cloud and stays inside it after Kumo turns negative flipping above the Senkou Span A, the next target for the pair will be found at 118.38 yen. If the European currency breaches the top of the Cloud after the flip, it may advance to 120 yen next week as early as the next week. The last time the pair was trading at this level was May 4. Chart. Daily EUR/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7801

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"UBS expects GBP/USD to decline"(2011-06-29) Currency analysts at UBS note that the members of the Monetary Policy Committee who form the core of the Bank of England have significantly changed their views: those who stood at the middle ground even start thinking about further monetary stimulus in the form of asset purchases. As the rate expectations tend to determine exchange rates and the BoE rates are likely to stay at the record minimum for a long period of time, the specialists expect sterling to stay under pressure versus the greenback. According to the bank, the pair GBP/USD will go down to $1.56 in 3 months and to $1.50 by the end of 2011. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7795

"Loonie strengthened on high inflation data"(2011-06-29) Canadian dollar was boosted by stronger than expected inflation data: consumer prices added 0.7% in May after 0.3% growth in April, while the forecast also was 0.3% increase. The y/y inflation reached the maximal level since March 2003 of 3.7% that’s above Bank of Canada’s 2% target. The nation’s core CPI rose by 1.8% on the annual basis in May, while economists were looking forward only to 1.5% advance. Analysts at CIBC World Market note that the market has had so far a very dovish view on Canada’s interest rates. However, the latest loonie-positive data made that change. The specialists believe that Canada’s economy will revive in the third quarter. In their view, the nation’s central bank will increase the borrowing costs for the first time this year in October that is 3 monetary policy meetings away from now. Strategists at Scotia Capital, however, say that although the market has currently become very excited, increase in CPI may be actually explained by the seasonal adjustments, so it doesn’t mean rising inflationary pressure. Perhaps, June figures will be lower. Toronto Dominion Bank claims that in the current conditions of high uncertainty and high risk the Bank of Canada won’t hurry to begin the tightening cycle. The pair USD/CAD has lost almost 100 pips today falling from the daily maximum in the 0.9820 area and getting below 0.9720. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7792

"BofA Merrill Lynch: sentiment towards US dollar may improve"(2011-06-29) Even though the market's attention is currently focused on the situation in Greece, one should pay attention to the end of QE2 in the United States as it will also influence exchange rates. Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch say that judging by the recent sharp decline in Treasury yields it’s possible to assume that some of the market’s participants have been looking forward to the QE3. In addition, according to the Fed funds futures contracts, investors are currently pricing in a rate hike in August 2012 while earlier they were expecting US central bank to raise the borrowing costs already in January next year. However, the strategists regard the possibility of QE3 as very low. In their view, more monetary stimulus would be politically difficult, potentially less effective and probably even not necessary. As a result, the bank thinks that investors’ sentiment about US currency may improve so that the short positions on the greenback may be unwound and interest-rate differentials may move in the near term in favor of dollar. The biggest selling positions are now on USD versus euro, Aussie, Swiss franc, loonie and yen. The specialists remind that after the first round of quantitative easing was over euro and yen declined by about 6% in 3 months, while the greenback gained 2%. The bank says that the key point is to understand whether US economic and fiscal problems are temporary or permanent. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7790

"Commerzbank: technical comments on AUD/USD"(2011-06-29) Australian dollar rose from Monday’s minimum versus the greenback at $1.0390 to the levels in the $1.0600 area (June 24 maximum). Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the pair AUD/USD came close to the key resistance in the 1.0620/55 zone (1-month resistance line). In their view, Aussie will retest these levels this week. As long as it closes the day below the mentioned region, the outlook will remain negative. If Australia’s currency manages to overcome $1.0655, it will be poised up to the strong resistance at $1.0774 (current June maximum). If the pair succeeds here as well, it will go up for $1.10. Chart. H4 AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7788

"Commerzbank: technical comments on EUR/USD"(2011-06-29) Technical analysts at Commerzbank are still bearish on the single currency versus the greenback. The specialists regard the current advance of EUR/USD as consolidation. According to the bank, resistance for the pair is situated at the 55-day MA of $1.4404 and at the resistance line from May to June at $1.4549. As long as euro’s trading below the latter, the outlook for it will remain negative. The economists believe that the European currency is on its way down to the 200-week MA at $1.4017 and the recent minimum at $1.3968. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7786

"BBH: positive Greek outcome is already priced in euro"(2011-06-29) The pair EUR/USD has been advancing since Monday: euro climbed from the levels in the $1.4100 area approaching $1.4400. Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman, the oldest and the biggest private bank in the United States, remind traders about the saying “buy the rumors, sell the facts”. In their view, the markets have already priced in the passing of the austerity measures by the Greek parliament and are now waiting for confirmation of their assumption. That means that once the results of the vote are released at 1100 GMT, euro may ease down. In addition, the specialists say that German banks have signaled they would accept the French plan as a project of Greek debt rollover, though it’s difficult to predict the reaction of the rating agencies. Fitch already came out saying that the plan will likely constitute a default and there has been no firm statement from the other agencies. It’s also necessary to note that French proposal wouldn't cover all Greek debt held by commercial banks. So, BBH sees euro under bearish pressure. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7784

"Sumitomo Mitsui: Euro will rise in case of good news from Greece"(2011-06-29) Currency strategists at Sumitomo Mitsui claim that if Greek parliament approves the budget cuts, the single currency may climb to $1.4450 versus the greenback. The specialists note that the trading volume is thin as the majority of traders keep positions closed watching the situation. According to the bank, as EUR crosses advance, it may encourage the pair USD/JPY to strengthen to 81.50 in the near term, although some investors will sell the greenback on further gains. Specialists at Credit Agricole note that the pair EUR/USD has been strengthening during the third day ahead of the vote that means that investors are optimistic enough. The analysts warn, however, that euro’s advance will likely be limited as the market’s focus will rapidly turn to the second vote on the key implementing legislation that will take place tomorrow. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7782

"Commerzbank, Citi: bullish outlook for USD/JPY"(2011-06-29) The greenback rose from the levels below 80 yen getting yesterday to the month maximums right above 81.00. Technical analysts at Commerzbank expect the pair USD/JPY to rise to 81.79/82.21 (55- and 200-day MA) and then possibly to 83.33 (the downtrend line from 2007 to 2011). Specialists at Citigroup are also bullish on US currency versus Japanese yen. In their view, the pair will climb at least to 82.10 and the possibly to the 84.00/85.00 area. The bank advises to buy dollars stopping below 80.00. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7780

"Commerzbank, UBS: negative outlook for EUR/CHF"(2011-06-29) Swiss franc was strengthening during the last months and reached the record maximums versus US dollar and the single currency. That’s why the head of the Social Democrat party Christian Levrat insists on temporarily pegging the national currency to euro. In his view, Switzerland’s monetary authorities should do more to stem franc’s appreciation that’s dangerous for the nation’s economy, for instance, make the interest rates negative or ban the speculation against the currency. Analysts at Commerzbank, however, think that the Swiss National Bank doesn’t have to intervene at the currency market let alone to peg the exchange rate as currently there is no deflation threat. So, Levrat’s demands don’t seem very realistic. In addition, the central bank wouldn’t probably give in to political pressure as in such cast its independence will be doubted. As a result, the specialists think that if risk aversion increases, the pair EUR/CHF will go down again. Strategists at UBS are also bearish on the prospects of euro versus Swiss franc as there’s no way Greek crisis will be entirely solved any time soon. The bank lowered 1-month forecast for EUR/CHF from 1.25 to 1.20 and the 3-month projection from 1.32 to 1.25. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7778

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"UBS reduced forecast for GBP/USD"(2011-06-28) Bank of England’s policy maker Adam Posen criticized the Bank for International Settlements for calling the central banks of the developed nations to increase the borrowing costs in order to fight inflation. Posen argued that in the UK and other western advance economies there’s still little or no credit growth, little wage growth beyond productivity and little evidence of rising inflation expectations. Posen has voted since October to extend the BoE’s bond-buying plan being the only one of the 9-member MPC to do so. Minutes of the committee’s June 8-9 meeting showed, however, that some officials saw a potential need for further asset purchases as the nation’s economic recovery remains very weak. Analysts at UBS revised down the forecast for British pound versus the greenback by the end of 2011 from $1.63 to $1.50. The specialists changed their mind as they now think that UK central bank won’t raise the rates until February 2012. Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that if GBP/USD closes below 1.5937, it will be poised down to the 55-week MA at 1.5855 and then to the Fibonacci target at 1.5510. Resistance for the pair is currently situated at 1.6050. Pound was also affected today by the discouraging data on Britain’s current account: the deficit narrowed from 13 billion pounds in the final 3 month of 2010 to 9.4 billion pounds in the first quarter of this year, while the economists were looking forward to the slump to 4.7 billion pounds. According to data from Bloomberg, sterling lost 7.9% versus the developed-market currencies during the past year. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7776

"Barclays, UBS: negative outlook for EUR/USD"(2011-06-28) The single currency is fluctuating between $1.4230 and $1.4330 versus the greenback ahead of the vote on austerity measures in Greece. Currency strategists at Barclays Bank note that investors seem to be very nervous. The specialists recommend selling the pair EUR/USD on its advances. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase are also firmly bearish on euro. Analysts at Rabobank think that the chances that the single currency will gain more upward momentum ahead of this week’s main event are slim. In their view, in the near term EUR/USD will find resistance at the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud at $1.4397. Strategists at UBS claim that although euro jumped to the levels in the $1.4300 zone, the general outlook remains bearish. According to the specialists, the pair is on its way down to support at $1.4103 and $1.4074. The bank places resistance at $1.4358. Analysts at Bank of New York Mellon claim that if all goes well on Wednesday, EUR/USD will bounce, but only temporarily as the fundamental problems of Greece and the euro area still won’t be solved. The economists believe that earlier euro was supported by the external factors such as reserve diversification by the central banks, so the end of QE2 in the United States may slow down this process putting euro under negative pressure. Chart. H1 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7774

"French banks agreed to the partial rollover of Greece’s debt"(2011-06-28) Yesterday French banks including BNP Paribas told the French government that they were willing to partly roll over maturing Greek government bonds in order to help the indebted nation avoid default. Under the proposal discussed in recent days between the French Banking Federation and the French Treasury, bondholders are going to re-invest about 70% of Greek sovereign debt maturing from mid-2011 to mid-2014. 50% percent of the redemptions would go into 30-year Greek securities, with the remaining 20% invested in a fund made of “very-high quality” securities that would back the 30-year bonds. Greece’s outstanding debt has almost reached 340 billion euro that includes bonds of 100 billion euro maturing by the end of 2014. Several German banks note that there’s a good purpose in the French banks’ idea claiming, however, that 30 years is too long a period. The bankers are ready to discuss the maturities of 15, 10 or 5 years. There will be more talks on the matter. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets note that that bank-backed rollover would be only a partial solution of Greece’s crisis as commercial banks are holding just 27% of the nation’s sovereign debt. The ECB that had earlier announced that it wouldn’t participate in the rollover holds 14% while the European Union and International Monetary Fund have the remaining 16%. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7770

"William Pesek: what euro area may learn from Asia"(2011-06-28) Bloomberg columnist William Pesek gave an interesting view on the situation in the euro area drawing parallels between the current European debt crisis and what Asia experienced in 1997. In their view, despite all the differences between 2 regions the consequences of the 2 set of events may be much similar. That implies that the euro zone may face serious political problems and deterioration of living standards, while the reputation of the IMF will get tainted. The specialists have pointed out 5 lessons Europe can take from Asia: 1. Default is inevitable, so the bailouts seem to be vain. As Greece requires more and more funding, financing the nation will weaken other economies of the monetary union. In Asia after Thailand devalued the baht in July 1997, Indonesia and Korea were contaminated by the crisis. 2. Recovery is quicker when debts are repaid. By now Greek government has lost much credibility. Pesek thinks that Greece has to restructure its debt and if such measures were taken a year ago they would be less painful and didn’t agitate the market that much. In December 1997 Korea received $57 billion IMF bailout. The nation acted quickly to let weak companies fail, closed insolvent banks, fought tax cheats and came managed to reduce its debt quickly enough. 3. Europe needs to conduct vast reforms to make the region’s economy more competitive. The policymakers can’t count only at the austerity measures. After the crisis Asian nations put a lot of efforts in advancing the service sectors. 4. It’s necessary to try balancing the budget through promoting higher growth rate, but not by increasing taxes. Japan was practicing monetary stimulus for nearly 2 decades hoping to achieve 5% growth. Then its deficit dramatically expanded, the country made a huge mistake lifting up consumption taxes in 1997 that got the last air out of the recovery. 5. The conditions of Greek bailout are less strict than those designed for Indonesia, Korea and Thailand 14 years ago. The main conclusion of the specialist is that all is not as bad as one may think. Asia has managed to survive the crisis and so will Europe. It’s necessary to let Greece do what needs to be done even if the country has to default. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7769

"Commerzbank: comments on EUR/GBP"(2011-06-28) The single currency rose versus British pound overcoming resistance at 0.8939. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the pair EUR/GBP will reach the top of the 2-year channel at 0.8980, but won’t be able to move above this level. In their view, euro will drop back to the 0.8820/0.8783 area representing 20-day MA and support line. Chart. Weekly EUR/GBP Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7765