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"BBH: euro may be able to strengthen to the recent maximums"(2011-07-08) Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman note that the single currency hit yesterday support at $1.4220 and managed to return above 1.4300 due to the hawkish comments of the European Central Bank. The specialists claim that the pair EUR/USD may go up reaching the recent maximums in the $1.4550 zone. In their view, the ECB will likely continue tightening its monetary policy this year, while the EU financial support rules out the possibility of an un-orderly default in Greece. Never the less, the bank isn’t so sure about further growth of euro. The economists underline that the European currency will still find itself under pressure of the euro zone’s debt crisis. For the pair could reach 2011 maximum in the $1.50 area, it has to break above $1.4550 on the sustainable basis. In any case trading is going to remain volatile affected by the risks associated with peripheral European nations. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7893

"NAB: buy Aussie on the dips"(2011-07-08) Analysts at National Australia Bank claim that if Australian dollar falls back to the $1.0400 region trading versus its US counterpart, investors should use it as possibility to buy Aussie. The specialists are optimistic about the world’s economic outlook. In their view, the soft patch in growth will be over by September. In their view, China will go through soft landing, Greece will go further somehow and there will be no recession in the United States – that will secure the ground for Australia's commodity prices supporting Aussie. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7891

"BNP Paribas: USD/JPY up head of NFP report"(2011-07-08) There are, finally, some improvements on the USD/JPY chart. Japanese yen’s declining versus the greenback as the market looks forward to optimistic figures of US Non-Farm Payrolls report. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News think that NFP rose by 105,000 in June after adding 54,000 in May. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 9.1%. Analysts at BNP Paribas note that the greenback may benefit from NFP data released today at 12:30 GMT if the number of jobs added in June shows either a massive upside surprise or a big disappointment for the market. Otherwise it’s going to be neutral to positive for risk. The pair USD/JPY went up from last week minimums at 80.25 breaking yesterday above resistance in the 81.00/15 area. The next resistance levels are situated at the 100-day MA of 81.60 and the 200-day MA at 82.09. Support levels are found in the 81.10/00 and 80.80/77 zones. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7889

"ANZ: EUR/USD may fall to $1.3903"(2011-07-08) Analysts at ANZ Banking Group claim that if the single currency falls versus the greenback getting below the 100-day MA at $1.4273, it may slump firstly, to June 16 minimum at $1.4074 and then to $1.3903 (50% Fibonacci retracement of this year’s advance from $1.2867 to $1.4940) that is the 3 1/2-month minimum. The specialists claim that the euro has formed consolidation pattern since May 23 to July 4 between the uptrend line connecting the minimums of May 23, June 16 and June 27 and the downtrend line linking the maximums of June 7 and July 4. In their view, the pair EUR/USD currently risks to survive another decline of the similar magnitude as at the beginning of May. Yesterday the European currency hit the lowest level since June 27 at $1.4220 before returning to the levels above $1.4300. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7887

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"UBS: US dollar still remains the world’s main reserve currency for now"(2011-07-07) Analysts at UBS believe that although many of the largest market participants such as Asian central banks tend to diversify their assets from holding US dollars, the greenback will for some time more remain the major reserve currency. According to the COFER (Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves) report released by the IMF, in the first quarter of 2011 reserves denominated in US dollars decreased by 0.8%, while the holdings in euro trimmed by 5.1%. The single currency was sold probably because of the concerns about the situation in the peripheral euro zone nations, while dollar got under pressure due to the fears about the extension of quantitative easing. UBS underlines that other currencies such as commodity ones tend to attract increasing demand as the reserve ones. As for the longer term, US currency risks to lose its status. The bank asked the participants of its annual reserve management seminar what would be the most important reserve currency in 25 years. The majority of respondents think it will be not one, but a portfolio of currencies, 5% of the interviewed said it would be euro, while less than 30% think that dollar will manage to keep the lead. The bank notes that if the reserve managers add fiscal performance on the list of criteria for investment selection that currently includes yields and liquidity, emerging markets’ currencies will be able to compete with the ones of advanced nations. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7876

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"Commerzbank: EUR/USD on its way down to $1.3900(2011-07-07) The single currency slumped yesterday versus the greenback breaking below the support provided by the Ichimoku Cloud. Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the pair EUR/USD is now poised down to support line at $1.4145 and then to the 200-week MA at $1.4021, the recent minimum at $1.3968 and finally to the 200-day MA at $1.3900. According to the bank, strong resistance for euro is found at Wednesday's maximum in the 1.4465 area. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7874

"Citigroup advises to sell EUR/CAD"(2011-07-07) The market is short on Canadian dollar. The reasons of such negative sentiment about loonie may be various: investors may be worried about US economic weakness that may affect Canada’s economy or about Canadian growth itself. Euro’s story is different. The bullish players look forward to more ECB rate hikes in 2011. However, the euro zone’s problems are still unsolved: there’s high pressure from the rating agencies that are issuing warnings about Greece and Portugal. In addition, many economists think that the recent agreement on Greece did nothing but put off more drastic measures needed to overcome the crisis. Analysts at Citigroup think that the euro area’s issues are likely to intensify, while there may be some unexpectedly positive data from Canada, for example, from US employment report that is released on Friday. In such case Canadian currency will benefit not only from its ties to the United States, but also from the improved risk sentiment. According to Citigroup, it’s necessary to sell EUR/CAD at 1.3850 stopping at 1.4160 and targeting 1.3050. The strategists advise to hold position for about 2 months. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7871

"BoA Merrill Lynch: PBOC raised rates"(2011-07-06) The People’s Bank of China raised today benchmark deposit and lending rates by 25 basis points and to 3.5% and 6.56% respectively. This is the third increase since the beginning of 2011. Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch don’t think that the PBOC will lift up the borrowing costs until the next year. In 2012 the specialists expect 2 hikes of 25 basis points each. The bank believes that Chinese monetary authorities decided to tighten policy projecting inflation spike in June. According to Bank of America, real deposit rates in China remain negative as in May China’s CPI added 5.5% showing the fastest pace of increase since July 2008. As the bank savings of Chinese residents are steadily eroded by inflation they invest their money into the real estate driving up housing prices and fuelling concerns about a nationwide property bubble. The nation may still need to use proactive fiscal policies to offset some of the negative impact of the latest rate move. Such move of China’s central bank is likely to raise concerns that monetary tightening will trigger a slowdown in the world’s second-biggest economy. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7869

"Barclays Capital cut forecasts for GBP versus USD and EUR"(2011-07-06) Analysts at Barclays Capital, world's second-largest currency-dealing bank after Deutsche Bank, changed their outlook for British pound versus the greenback to bearish. The specialists now think that GBP/USD will trade in a year at $1.60, while earlier they expected to see the pair in July 2012 at $1.76. One-month forecasts were decreased from $1.66 to $1.59, 3-month – from $1.72 to $1.58, 6-month – from $1.74 to $1.59. The forecast for EUR/GBP was raised from 0.82 to 0.90. Euro will rise to 0.93 in a month and to 0.95 in 3 months. The projections for sterling were moved down after the bank lowered the estimate of UK economic growth in the second half of 2011 and pushed its expectations of Bank of England rate hike from November 2011 to May 2012. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7868

"EUR/USD dropped after Portugal's downgrade"(2011-07-06) Moody’s Investors Service reduced today Portugal’s long-term government bond ratings from Baa1 to Ba2. As the reason of the downgrade the specialists cited the growing risk that Portugal will require a second bailout before it can return to the private market. Strategists at Bank of New York Mellon claim that uncertainty is currently higher than long time before. The specialists expect trading to be volatile. In their view, it’s impossible to project now at what level euro’s rate will be in a year as the prospects of the euro zone’s surviving the crisis remain dim. Portuguese 10-year government bond yield bounced to the record maximum of 12.30%. Irish, Italian, Spanish and Greek yields also climbed on the fears of further ratings cuts. Analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland are surprised that the news about Portugal’s downgrade provoked such big decline of the single currency versus the greenback. The bank thinks that the downgrades of other peripheral nations’ debt will inevitably come. Strategists at Societe Generale give several reasons of such strong sell-off. Firstly, the market was long on EUR/USD. Secondly, the bond markets drove the pair by correlation. Thirdly, the greenback is seen as a better safe haven than Swiss franc in short-term perspective (though not in the longer term taking into account US debt ceiling negotiations). The pair EUR/USD fell on the negative news from $0.4466 to $1.4325. Analysts at Commerzbank claim that if euro gets below $1.4325, it will be poised down to support at $1.4140 and then to the 200-week MA at $1.4021. График. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7866

"UBS: EUR/CHF depends on the demand for the greenback"(2011-07-06) Currency strategists at UBS claim that the recent upward correction of the single currency versus Swiss franc may be explained by the improved investors' sentiment about Greece's future after the nation’s parliament approved austerity measures last week and the euro zone’s finance ministers agreed to provide the country with the fifths tranche of financing. Never the less, the specialists think that uncertainly concerning the situation in the euro area will persist capping the attempts of the pair EUR/CHF to strengthen. It’s necessary to note that the pair is driven more by the market’s confidence in the greenback which will be influenced by the upcoming earnings season. The specialists say that euro will be able to break its medium-term downtrend versus franc only if financial results of US companies are encouraging enough. In such case confidence in the greenback will increase triggering capital reallocations out of Switzerland. According to UBS, such outcome is unlikely unless domestic conditions improve more considerably and the Fed becomes more hawkish, so the bank remains bearish on EUR/CHF. As a result, the analysts recommend selling euro on the current maximums. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7853

"J.P.Morgan: trading advices concerning ECB meeting"(2011-07-06) The market is sure that the European Central Bank will raise its benchmark rate on Thursday, July 7. It’s also pretty clear that the Bank of England will keep the borrowing costs unchanged at its meeting on the same day. The surprises are unlikely. Never the less, analysts at J.P. Morgan think that it’s still possible to trade on this event. In their view, it’s necessary to concentrate attention on the tone of the central banks’ statements. The specialists expect the ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet to sound hawkish, while the Bank of England is likely to remain dovish. The natural conclusion from such assumption is the recommendation to buy EUR/GBP. J.P. Morgan advises to open longs at 0.8960 stopping below 0.8870 and targeting 0.9200. Chart. H4 EUR/GBP Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7862

"Commerzbank: comments on USD/CHF"(2011-07-06) The greenback’s advance versus Swiss franc from the record minimum at 0.8274 hit on June 30 was capped by 0.8525 close to the key resistance 0.8555 (minimum of the beginning of May and May 31 maximum) above which the bearish pressure on the pair would ease. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that US currency manage to recover to 0.8593/.8630 (Fibonacci retracement level, 55-day MA) and 0.8850 (38.2% retracement of the 2011 decline). Chart. H4 USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7860

"BNP Paribas bets on euro’s advance in 2011"(2011-07-06) Analysts at BNP Paribas note that different monetary policy approaches of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are widening the yield spread between the US and the euro area in favor of the latter. As a result, the single currency is strengthening versus the greenback despite the European debt issues. The specialists believe that the pair EUR/USD that is currently trading above $1.40 may get higher as the EU authorities will hopefully agree to help Greece out of the crisis and the Fed and the ECB keep conducting divergent policies. Then, in 2012, when US central bank is thought to begin monetary tightening, euro may weaken. However, according to the bank, it’s necessary to note that the European currency is not as strong as one may judge from the exchange rate. In real effective terms, euro is in line with its long-term average. It would be more accurate to talk of the dollar being weak than the euro being strong as the greenback’s real effective exchange rate is indeed well below its long-term average. BNP Paribas expects to see EUR/USD in the $1.4500 area during the third quarter. Then the pair will rise to $1.4800 by the end of the year. Bank’s forecasts for the next year are at $1.4500 for the second quarter, $1.4000 – for the third and $1.3500 – for the fourth. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7858

"US Non-Farm Payrolls forecasts"(2011-07-06) Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News believe that US Non-Farm Payrolls increased in June by 100,000 after gaining 54,000 in May that was the minimal rise in 8 months. Such advance, however, won’t be enough to reduce the unemployment rate that is expected to remain at 9.1%. In order to achieve sustainable decline in the joblessness rate, payrolls have to climb by roughly 200,000 a month. The monthly average in the first quarter was only at 166,000. In June the pace of the payrolls growth is likely to be slower than that as the companies tend to limit costs trying to hold their ground in the time of general economic weakness – last month Ben Bernanke called US economic recovery “frustratingly slow”. The Federal Reserve’s Chairman says that the central bank projects that the unemployment rate will continue declining but at a very low pace. The situation on the labor market has been during the last few years far from optimistic – since Barak Obama became president in January 2009 unemployment has increased by almost a percentage point, while the economy has lost 2.5 million jobs. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7856

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"UBS: EUR/CHF depends on the demand for the greenback"(2011-07-05) Currency strategists at UBS claim that the recent upward correction of the single currency versus Swiss franc may be explained by the improved investors' sentiment about Greece's future after the nation’s parliament approved austerity measures last week and the euro zone’s finance ministers agreed to provide the country with the fifths tranche of financing. Never the less, the specialists think that uncertainly concerning the situation in the euro area will persist capping the attempts of the pair EUR/CHF to strengthen. It’s necessary to note that the pair is driven more by the market’s confidence in the greenback which will be influenced by the upcoming earnings season. The specialists say that euro will be able to break its medium-term downtrend versus franc only if financial results of US companies are encouraging enough. In such case confidence in the greenback will increase triggering capital reallocations out of Switzerland. According to UBS, such outcome is unlikely unless domestic conditions improve more considerably and the Fed becomes more hawkish, so the bank remains bearish on EUR/CHF. As a result, the analysts recommend selling euro on the current maximums. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7853

"Barclays Capital, Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD"(2011-07-05) Technical analysts at Barclays Capital think that British pound will be capped by the $1.6150 level trading versus the greenback. In their view, GBP/USD will return down to the minimums in the $1.5970 area. However, if sterling unexpectedly breaks above $1.6150, trading will become more volatile and the pair will get chance to climb to $1.6250. Strategists at Commerzbank believe that the advance of British currency will be limited by resistance at $1.6144. If pound closes the day below $1.5957, it will be poised further down. On the other hand, if sterling closes above $1.6144, it will get chance to rise to $1.6230/65. The bank’s general outlook for GBP/USD is bearish as long as it’s staying below $1.6320. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7852

"Commerzbank: comments on USD/CHF"(2011-07-05) Technical analysts at Commerzbank advise investors to buy the greenback versus Swiss franc in the 0.8415/0.8370 zone stopping below 0.8330. The specialists say the pair USD/CHF will face strong resistance at 0.8528 and 0.8554 – the minimum of the beginning of May and the maximum of the end of May respectively. According to the bank, if US dollar manages to close above the latter, it will be able to rise above 0.86. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7849

"BNP Paribas, Rabobank about pound’s future"(2011-07-05) Analysts at BNP Paribas believe that British pound will gain versus the greenback in the second half of the year as the interest rate differential between the United States and Britain widens in favor of the latter as the Federal Reserve is likely to stay on hold. However, the Fed may start tightening monetary policy next year, so that GBP/USD’s uptrend will likely reverse. According to the specialists sterling may return down to $1.50 in 2012. Currency strategists at Rabobank, on the other hand, expect sterling to be weak during the summer months. Among the reasons for such assumption the specialists cite the poor state of UK economy and the potential further quantitative easing by the Bank of England. In their view, it will depend on EUR/USD dynamics whether pound will get under pressure more versus euro or the greenback. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7844

"RBA lest the rate unchanged: analysts’ comments"(2011-07-05) As it was expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the rates unchanged at 4.75%. Analysts at Barclays Capital expect the central bank to downgrade its growth and inflation forecasts in August. Though the RBA said it expects the economic recovery to boost output in coming months, it projects growth in 2011 to be less strong than previously thought. The pair AUD/USD declined from $1.0746 to $1.0665. Strategists at Western Union Business Solutions Corporate Dealing place support at $1.0650 and resistance at $1.0730. Economists at J.P. Morgan pointed out, however, that the RBA is still concerned about inflation that will keep increasing. In their view, the central bank will hike rates once again in the coming months – in August and November. Analysts at Nomura think that the RBA will consider the option of the rate hike if the second quarter CPI figures are really high. According to the specialists, both headline and underlying inflation would have to show above 0.8% on-quarter growth. In the first quarter Australian consumer prices added 1.6%, while the core CPI increased by 0.9%. График. H4 AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7842

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"Rabobank: franc’s decline won’t last long"(2011-07-04) Currency strategists at Rabobank claim that taking into account the improved investors’ risk appetite it’s possible to assume that Swiss franc will decline in the near term. As the same time, it’s necessary to realize that Greek debt crisis isn’t over yet. The specialists are sure that there are another periods ahead with high risk aversion. According to the bank, the appreciation of Swiss currency during the recent months was provoked by the US economic weakness and the economic slowdown in China. The analysts warn that these factors will likely keep influencing the market. As a result, one may probably use the current franc’s decline to buy it on the dips. Rabobank believes that the pair USD/CHF may face resistance later this week. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7831