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"Morgan Stanley: pessimistic view on EUR/USD"(2011-07-13) The single currency went up today after hitting yesterday minimum at $1.3837 reaching $1.4100 on the talk that the ECB and China are buying the bonds of indebted peripheral euro zone’s nations. Yesterday Moody’s Investors Service lowered Ireland’s debt rating from Baa3 to Ba1. As a result, Ireland became the third euro zone nation with credit rating below investment grade with Greece and Portugal already in this group. The Italian Treasury is scheduled to sell as much as 5 billion euro ($6.99 billion) of bonds tomorrow. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase are pessimistic on the situation in Europe. The specialists advise to sell EUR/USD on the rebound. The main theme on the market is now the fear of debt crisis contagion. Strategists at Morgan Stanley think that the single currency still seems to be vulnerable. In their view, euro will slide to $1.36 by the end of 2011. The economists note that there are still big risk events ahead that may affect the European currency such as the bank stress tests. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7957

"JPMorgan Chase: division of opinions within the Fedr"(2011-07-13) The minutes of FOMC June 21-22 meeting released yesterday showed that there’s the disagreement within the Federal Reserve on the necessity of further monetary stimulus. It happens that some members of the Federal Open Market Committee believe that the central bank might have to consider the possibility of launching additional quantitative easing measures, especially if economic growth remains weak and insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate in the medium term. A number of other FOMC members, on the contrary, think that as inflation risks increase it may mean that the economic conditions are likely to improve so that the Fed will be able to normalize its policy even earlier than projected now. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase note that one camp is worried about what happens if growth slows more than expected, while the other – about what happens if the rise in inflation isn’t transitory. So, the policymakers think that they can’t ease monetary policy because inflation is rising nor tighten it as the unemployment rate is too high. As a result, the Federal Reserve is likely to wait watching the economic developments and keeping the rates at the record minimum. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, that the rates in the United States will remain between 0 and 0.25% until the second quarter of 2012. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7955

"Commerzbank: yen hit 4-month minimum versus US dollar"(2011-07-13) At the beginning of the day Japanese yen reached 4-month maximum at 78.45 versus the greenback, the highest level since March 17. Then the Asian currency pulled back down as the market thought that the nation’s monetary authorities may intervene selling the national currency as high yen has a negative impact on the nation’s exporters. Yen’s surge may be explained by the high demand for it as a refuge due to the increased risk aversion caused by the euro zone’s debt crisis. Technical analysts at Commerzbank expect the pair USD/JPY to consolidate in the near term. The specialists note that close to today’s minimum there is a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement target at 78.23 below which US currency will revisit its March record minimum of 76.25. Resistance for US dollar will lie at 80.26 and 80.49. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7953

"HSBC, Western Union: kiwi’s rate depends on Europe"(2011-07-13) New Zealand’s dollar rose versus its US counterpart from the recent minimum at 0.8110 hit yesterday to the levels in the $0.8220 area. Currency strategists at HSBC claim that taking into account kiwi’s 2011 maximums, the short-term prospects for the pair NZD/USD seem to be negative. The specialists note that the demand for New Zealand’s currency will be stemmed by the market’s concerns about the situation in Europe. Analysts at Western Union believe that the pair has found support after its decline earlier this week. Never the less, the specialists also think that further dynamics of the cross will depend on how the things go in the euro area. The specialists say that kiwi managed to get higher today on the good Chinese data and is now losing its upward momentum. In their view, support for NZD/USD is at $0.8190, while resistance is situated at $ 0.8240. Chart. H4 NZD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7949

"HSBC, BoA-Merrill Lynch: Chinese data was rather strong"(2011-07-13) China's second-quarter GDP was in line with forecasts rising by 9.5% after gaining 9.7% in the first quarter. June industrial production increased by 15.1% after 13.3% rise in May versus 13.2% expected. Analysts at HSBC claim that Chinese GDP and industrial output figures released today are relatively strong. The specialists note that as inflation rate remains high, monetary tightening conducted by China’s monetary authorities seems justified. In their view, the country will be very cautious about raising rates, so this year 1-2 bank reserve requirement hikes are more likely. Economists at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch believe that Chinese economic growth pace will slow down to 9.0% in the fourth quarter. According to the bank, the nation’s economy’s heading for a soft landing. The strategists think that China’s GDP will add 9.3% in 2011. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7947

"Westpac: Aussie declined due to the risk aversion"(2011-07-12) Australian dollars hit today 2-week minimums versus US dollar and Japanese yen on the concerns about the global economic recovery and on the expectations that the European debt crisis will spread more, while the region’s authorities are unable to act decisively to prevent it. Analysts at Westpac and RBC note that risk aversion has significantly strengthened. In their view, the pair AUD/USD is poised for more declines. According to the survey of more than 400 companies that took place from June 24 to June 30 conducted by National Australia Bank, confidence index dropped from 6 in May to 0 in June. Specialists at NAB that weaker confidence and slower consumer spending will increase the pressure on the Reserve bank of Australia to keep the rates unchanged at 4.75%. The pair AUD/USD dropped from $1.0600 to the lowest level since June 29 at $1.0524. The pair AUD/JPY fell from 85.53 to the minimum since June 28 at 84.78. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7944

"HSBC: euro’s decline could be much stronger"(2011-07-12) Analysts at HSBC note that as the negotiations of US government and the lawmakers on the debt ceiling increase gave reached a deadlock the greenback doesn’t surge versus euro undermined by the debt crisis as much as it could have. The specialists claim that euro’s fair rate is found at $1.25. The pair EUR/USD fell today breaching the 200-day MA at $1.3908 and hitting the 4-month minimum at $1.3837. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here HSBC: euro

"BNY Mellon: situation in Europe has gone too far"(2011-07-12) Analysts at BNY Mellon believe that the European currency will keep weakening against a range of currencies during the summer even though Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schauble claimed that there is still time for the euro zone to reach a deal on Greece ahead of the next tranche of money due at the end of September. In their view, the crisis has gone too far for the markets’ concerns to ease down. In addition, there are other indebted euro zone nations at stake now. According to the bank, the pair EUR/USD is poised down to cross at $1.3710 the uptrend support line from June 2010 of $1.1876. Economists at Rabobank warn that the longer it takes for European politicians to find a solution to the region's sovereign-debt crisis, the greater will be the risk of the region’s contagion with the debt crisis. In their view, euro will stay under pressure in the near term. Strategists at RBC Capital Markets believe that the single currency will keep going down as long as the yield spread between Italian and German bond keeps widening and renewing the record maximums. The yield on 10-year Italian bonds reached today 6.02%. Chart. Weekly EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7935

"The Fed is likely to keep the rates low until June 2012"(2011-07-12) According to the study conducted by the Federal Bank of Cleveland, the 3-percentage-point gap between yields for 3-month and 10-year Treasuries means that American economy may add 1.1% in a year through June 2012 – that is less than half of the Fed’s current forecast. Taking into account pore June labor market figures, it’s becoming more and more likely that US central bank will keep interest rates extremely low in the current 0-0.25% range. The nation’s borrowing costs remain at these levels since December 2008 and may do so for the longest period since World War II. In February federal fund futures showed 51% chance of increase. This percentage lowered in April to 39% and is now only at 10%. The yield on the benchmark 10-year notes declined from 3.77% in February to 3.03% on July 8. Strategists at Barclays note that the 10-year yields staying in the 3% area reflect expectations that US lawmakers will reach an agreement on raising the debt ceiling, though obliging the government to conduct spending cuts that will certainly affect US economic growth in the short term. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7934

"Westpac: buy kiwi versus euro"(2011-07-12) New Zealand’s Q1 GBP figures are released on Wednesday, July 13, at 22:45 GMT. The economy that suffered in February from the devastating earthquake is rapidly recovering. Analysts at Westpac expect the nation to show accelerating economic growth gaining 0.3-0.5% in the first 2 months of the year after adding 0.2% in the final quarter of 2010. The specialists believe that New Zealand’s dollar will get support from the data publication. In their view, it’s necessary to open longs on kiwi against the single currency at 1.7250 stopping at 1.7450 and targeting 1.6900. Economists at Nomura Securities claim that the People’s Bank of China may be buying NZD. According to the bank, big central banks may get more interested in kiwi. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7932

"Commerzbank: EUR/USD will fall to $1.3685k"(2011-07-12) The single currency breached the uptrend support line at $1.4161, May minimum at $1.3968, the 200-day MA at $1.3908 and 50% Fibonacci retracement support at $1.3900. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the pair EUR/USD will slump to the 2010-2011 uptrend support line at $1.3685. According to the bank, on the upside resistance is found at $1.3900, $1.4076 and $1.4161. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7930

"Barclays: dollar will rise to parity with Swiss frank"(2011-07-12) Analysts at Barclays believe that the greenback will manage to rise to the parity versus Swiss franc in 3 months as the attractiveness of US currency is increasing with the deterioration of the situation in the euro area. The bank points out that if Europe’s prospects improve, demand for franc as a safe haven decreases. If the state of things in the monetary union, on the contrary, worsens, financial markets will get extremely concerned. In such case dollar will likely be able to strengthen, despite even the weak payrolls data. As a result, the specialists think that it’s a good chance now to buy USD/CHF at 0.8350 stopping at 0.7900. The last time the pair was trading above the parity was on December 2, 2010. US dollar declined by 10.5% against its Swiss counterpart since the beginning of this year. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7928

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"BNY Mellon gives outlook for USD/CAD"(2011-07-11) Currency strategists at Bank of New York Mellon claim that Canadian dollar may get under pressure in the near term versus its US counterpart, while its longer-term prospects are quite bullish. Last week loonie got support from stronger than expected Canadian employment data, but then dropped after poor US employment figures as investors’ risk aversion strengthened. The specialists claim that Canada’s currency will be affected by US economic weakness. In their view, the pair USD/CAD may reach parity during the next 3-4 months. In the longer term, however, the bank expects loonie to gain against the greenback. In their view, Canada’s dollar will benefit from rising oil prices as the nation has got some of the largest reserves in the world. As a result, BNY Mellon expects loonie to run in 2012 to 0.90 per dollar. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets also see upward potential in loonie. According to them, Canadian currency will reach 0.94. The bank, however, has doubts about the near-term outlook. The specialists think that the Bank of Canada will raise the interest rates, though they aren’t as sure as earlier. In their view, it’s necessary to watch the central bank’s monetary policy report that is published on July 20. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7926

"The leading experts about the outlook for US dollar this year"(2011-07-11) The most accurate currency forecasters have different opinions on the future of US dollar which has lost 13% during the past year. There are dollar-optimists who project the greenback to stop declining as the demand for it is likely to increase due to the euro zone’s debt concerns. In addition, the greenback may be supported by the fact that QE3 in the US seems to be unlikely. Strategists at Schneider Foreign Exchange expect US currency recover to $1.40 by the end of 2011. In their view, the risk of a disorderly default in Europe is currently much higher than in the United States. Wells Fargo economists say that dollar may appreciate to $1.39 by December 31, while Credit Agricole sees dollar to end the year at $1.30. Analysts at HSBC remind that dollar is still the reserve currency of the world and will be for some time to come, so it won’t continue depreciating. According their forecast, the pair EUR/USD will finish the year at $1.44. The main dollar-negative factors are concerns about the weakness of US economy and US debt. Analysts at Bank of Nova Scotia underline that there’s no credible fiscal plan in the United States. Strategists at Societe Generale believe that dollar will fall to $1.50 by the end of the third quarter and to $1.52 per euro by year-end. The specialists point out that US favors a weaker currency for the sake of economic growth encouragement. In their view, as long as unemployment remains high the Federal Reserve will keep its monetary policy extremely loose. JPMorgan thinks American currency will weaken to $1.48 by the year-end. All in all, despite some negative opinions the overall sentiment about the greenback has significantly improves. Analysts at Wells Fargo note that the safest strategy is to stay long on USD/JPY. In their view, by the end of the fourth quarter there will be a shift in interest-rate futures positive for US dollar. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7925

"Nomura, Citi: the situation in Italy shows market is still concerned"(2011-07-11) The slump of Italian bonds shows that the concerns about the euro zone’s debt problems don’t subside and that European leaders didn’t manage to prevent the spreading of the crisis within the region. The yield on Italy’s 10-year bond rose to 5.47%. The spread between it and the yield on German bunds reached the record maximum as did the spread between the yields of Spanish and German 10-year securities. Analysts at Westpac note that rising fears about Italy was somewhat unexpected as the economists and the markets were worried primarily about Spain and Portugal. Economists at Citi recommend selling the single currency versus US dollar, Swiss franc and Japanese yen in case risk sentiment keeps getting worse. Analysts at Rabobank don’t think that euro will manage to find support in the near term given the results of European banks’ stress tests due at the end of the week. Strategists at Nomura believe that the situation in Italy may deteriorate. The specialists warned about the potential political tensions in Italy. In their view, it’s necessary to get short on EUR/USD targeting $1.3750. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7924

"Commerzbank: bearish view on EUR/USD"(2011-07-11) The single currency went down from last week’s maximums versus the greenback in the $1.4575 getting below the uptrend support line at $1.4156. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the pair EUR/USD is now poised down to 200-week MA $1.4024, the recent minimum at $1.3968 and the 200-day MA at $1.3907. According to the bank, on the upside the pair will be limited by resistance at $1.4400 and $1.4538/80. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7919

"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF"(2011-07-11) Weekly USD/CHF On the weekly chart the pair USD/CHF kept consolidating between 0.8275 and 0.8550. The Turning line (1) and the Standard line (2) are still providing resistance for the prices. All lines of the Indicator are horizontal (1, 2, 3 and 4). Chart. Weekly USD/CHF Daily USD/CHF On the daily chart the lines Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are preparing to form the “golden cross” (1). The Standard line and the lines limiting the Ichimoku Cloud (2) are directed sideways, while the short-term Turning line is deviating up. This week the bulls are likely to move up to the levels in the 0.8440/0.8500. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7911

"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY"(2011-07-11) Weekly USD/JPY On the weekly chat Tenkan-sen has managed to recoil a bit from the longer term Kijun-sen that remains horizontal since the beginning of April (1) – the bulls have managed to prevent the “dead cross”. In addition, there was an “inverted hammer” candle formed last week – the bullish signal. Moreover, the descending Ichimoku Cloud is narrowing – Senkou Span B goes down (2), while Senkou Span A is flat. The bulls will likely manage to move higher this week. Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Daily USD/JPY On the daily chart tankan0sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2), as it was expected, formed the “golden cross”. Despite the rate’s decline on Friday, the Standard line (2) acted as support helping the pair go up at the beginning of this week. The Ichimoku Cloud has narrowed almost to the limit – the lines Senkou Span A and B have come close to each other. As a result, the bulls have now the chance to win the leadership. To achieve this they have to overcome 2 obstacles – the Turning line (1) and Senkou Span A. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7910

"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2011-07-11) Weekly GBP/USD Last week the trade was volatile – the bulls and the bears were fighting for domination at the market, so there was a small candle with long upper and lower shadows formed on the weekly chart. The bears turned out to be a bit stronger, so pound didn’t manage to overcome resistance provided by the Standard line. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen have approached each other preparing to make a “dead cross” (1). Never the less, this signal won’t de strong as the figure will be formed above the bullish Ichimoku Cloud. The prices will get support from the lower border of the uptrend channel and still ascending Kumo (3). In addition, the already mentioned Standard line is moving up that means that the longer term uptrend tends to continue. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD On the daily chart the situation is still more pessimistic. On the upside the prices face resistance from the Turning line (1), the Standard line (2) and the descending Ichimoku Cloud that has widened during the recent weeks that means the bears are leading at the market. Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) still hold in place the “dead cross” formed below the Ichimoku Cloud – the bearish signal. At the same time, the longer term trend (Kijun) remains neutral, while Tenkan and Senkou Span A which characterize short-term price moves are deviating upward. Taking into account the outlook on the weekly chart we don’t disregard the possibility of the pair’s attempt to rise to the resistance line connecting May and June maximums. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7909

"JPMorgan recommends buying EUR/GBP on the dips"(2011-07-08) Currency strategists at JPMorgan keep advising investors to buy the single currency versus the British pound on the dips because of the economic differences between the UK and core euro zone nations. According to the bank, the pair EUR/GBP will find support at 0.8905 and then return up to the levels above 0.9020. The specialists think that that euro will ultimately break above 2011 maximum of 0.9080 set on July 1. Chart. H4 EUR/GBP Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7904

"MIG Bank, Commerzbank: bullish view on USD/JPY"(2011-07-08) Technical analysts at MIG Bank claim that as the greenback has overcome resistance at 81.30 trading versus Japanese yen, it’s moving up to 82.25. In their view, the pair USD/JPY will face some resistance at 81.80/85. Specialists at Commerzbank also note that US dollar has managed to break above the daily Ichimoku Cloud at 81.31. According to them, above this level American currency will be poised up to the 55-day MA at 81.62 and then to the 200-day MA at 82.10. If dollar climbs above the latter, it will go higher to the downtrend line from 2007 to 2011 at 83.13. The bank sees support levels at 80.40 and 80.00. Economists at Citigroup think that strong US Non-Farm Payrolls data will push USD/JPY to the levels in the 82.00 area. Chart. H4 USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7901

"Reuters poll: experts’ forecasts on GBP/USD"(2011-07-08) According to monthly poll conducted by Reuters among 60 banks and analysts, British pound that has declined versus the greenback from $1.6800 to $1.5900 in the second quarter will remain at these levels for some time. The respondents think that the pair GBP/USD will trade in the $1.6100 region during the next half of a year. The median forecast shows that sterling will start slowly strengthening only in 2012. The surveyed expects see pound reaching $1.6300 and then pulling back down to $1.6200 by the middle of the next year. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7899

"Commerzbank: EUR/USD prospects after NFP"(2011-07-08) Analysts at Commerzbank think that the greenback won’t be able to gain versus the single currency on the Non-Farm Payrolls data. The specialists think that even if the data goes in line with the forecasts, US dollar won’t be able to keep moving up. The bank claims that the market talks about 130,000-140,000. If US economy gets less than 100,000 jobs, investors will get disappointed, especially in the unemployment rate increases. As the specialists are looking forward to a discouraging result, the pair EUR/USD, in their view, has all chanced to find support. The European currency returned today below $1.4300. Support levels are situated at $1.4220 (July 7 minimum), $1.4155 (uptrend support from May minimums) and $1.4100 (July 26 minimum). Resistance is situated at $1.4365/75 (50-day MA), $1.4395 (July 5 minimum) and $1.4465 (July 6 maximum). Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7897

"Commerzbank: comments on USD/CHF"(2011-07-08) The greenback went up versus Swiss franc from Wednesday’s minimum at 0.8365 to the 5-month downtrend resistance line at 0.8495. Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the bearish pressure on the pair USD/CHF will ease if manages to close above 0.8554 (May 4 minimum and May 31 maximum). In this case US dollar will be poised up to 0.8593/8630 (Fibonacci level and the 55-day MA). Chart. H4 USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7895