internationallove

Predict NFP and win super-prize from FBS! Dear traders! Attention! On the 5th of August an exclusive T-shirt from FBS will be given to one of you! Don’t miss a chance to show your great wit and win super-prize from FBS! T-shirt from FBS In order to get the price you need just to post your guess for the non-farm payrolls in July on the discussion board of our official group page in Facebook (http://www.facebook.com/topic.php?uid=137183862987521&topic=513). The first who posts the right number or the closest will be the winner of the contest. Hints are here: Economic calendar — http://www.fbs.com/analytics/economic_calendar). Analytics and market news — http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets). Contest rules: http://www.fbs.com/contest/nfp Good luck!

"Nomura: EUR/CHF may drop to parity"(2011-07-18) Economists at OECD say that franc is overvalued by the European currency by 38% and by 46% versus the greenback. Never the less, different experts and strategists think that it still has room to continue appreciation. John Taylor, the founder of the world’s largest currency hedge fund FX Concepts, believes that the single currency will fall to the parity with Swiss franc. The specialist claims that the European leaders haven’t come up with any solutions that would help to improve the situation in the euro zone in the longer term. As a result, demand for Switzerland’s currency as a safe haven is likely to remain high. Currency strategists at Nomura International lowered their forecasts for EUR/CHF from 1.4 to 1.2 by the end of the year pointing out that the pair is likely to reach 1.10 over the next 3 months. In their view, the parity level is quite possible if the crisis keeps escalating. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg for the end of 2011 declined from April’s estimate of 1.34 to 1.26. The cost to hedge a drop in the euro versus the franc climbed to the maximum since January 2009. Chart. Weekly USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8009

"Commerzbank: negative outlook for EUR/USD"(2011-07-18) Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that though the single currency has rebounded last week versus the greenback from the 200-day MA at $1.3912, the outlook for the pair EUR/USD remains negative as long as it’s trading below the downtrend line at $1.4496. Resistance levels are situated at Thursday’s maximum at $1.4282 and the 55-day MA at $1.4343. Euro went below support of June minimum at $1.4073, so the specialists believe that it’s currently on its way back down to the 200-day MA at $1.3912. According to the bank, if EUR/USD breaches the 4-month minimum at $1.3837 hit last Tuesday, it will slide to the $1.3717/1.3680 area limited by the 2010-2011 uptrend line and the 55-week MA. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8007

"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF"(2011-07-18) Weekly USD/CHF Last week the consolidation of the pair USD/CHF between 0.8275 and 0.8550 ceased and returned below 0.8100 renewing the historical minimums. Despite the negative factors, Kijun-sen (2) and Senkou Span B (3) are directed horizontally, so it’s possible to concede the possibility of the rate’s consolidation. The Turning line (2) and the Standard line (1) still provide resistance for the pair. Chart. Weekly USD/CHF Daily USD/CHF On the daily chart the prices were constantly moving lower. The expected intersection of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen didn’t happen – the Turning line remained below the Standard line repeating its curves (1, 2). All lines of the Indicator are directed horizontally (1, 2, 3 and 4) that indicates at potential consolidation. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7999

"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY"(2011-07-18) Weekly USD/JPY Last week bears have seized the market – the pair USD/JPY went down losing almost 150 pips. Dollar declined due to the fundamental factors as investors’ risk sentiment worsened and the demand for yen surged. Tenkan-sen (2) and Kijun-sen (1) have formed the “dead cross”. The signal is strong as it happened above Kumo (3). The prices have dropped below the Turning line (2) that is now together with the Standard line (2) acting as a resistance. The Ichimoku Cloud narrowed but still is keeping the pair under pressure. At the same Kijun, characterized the longer-term trend is directed sideways that allows us to speak about the possibility of consolidation of the pair’s rate unless new negative data strengthen yen. Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Daily USD/JPY On the daily chart one may see that the trading range of the greenback has shifted down from 80.00/81.00 to 78.60/79.60. The bulls didn’t manage to enjoy the “golden cross” formed last week for long – Tenkan-sen (1) reversed down and merged with the longer-term Kijun (2). After that the Turning line (1) and the Standard line (2) turned horizontal. Now these moving averaged will provide resistance for the pair. At the same time, the Ichimoku Cloud isn’t wide and all lines of the Indicator are directed horizontally (1, 2 and 3) that means that dollar’s rate may consolidate. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY

"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2011-07-18) Weekly GBP/USD Many experts note that sterling is currently quite vulnerable to the external factors. In particular, the dynamics of the British currency depends on the situation in the euro area and the United States and the rates of their currencies. This, however, doesn’t reduce the necessity of using the instruments of technical analysis. Last week the trading of GBP/USD was once again quite volatile – there was a candle with long lower shadow. The bulls managed to gain – this was as a large extent due to the support provided by the rising Ichimoku Cloud. On the weekly chart, as it was expected, Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) formed the “dead cross” (2). Both the Turning (1) and the Standard (2) lines provide resistance for pound. It’s necessary to note that Kumo is getting narrower that means that the bulls are gradually losing their powers. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD As we had projected in our last forecast, sterling managed to climb to the resistance line connecting May and June highs. On Wednesday the prices showed strong advance, then reached on Thursday the levels above the Standard line (1). Never the less, the bullish relief was short-lived – already on Friday the pair tested levels under Kijun (1), while this week the trade has started below this line. Tenkan-sen (2) and Kijun-sen (1) are still holding in place the “dead cross” formed below the Ichimoku Cloud – the bearish factor. The Cloud itself keeps going down that also isn’t very optimistic. As a result, the outlook for this week seems to be more negative. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7997

"Nomura: EUR/CHF has potential for further decline"(2011-07-15) Strategists at Nomura Securities believe that in the current situation of high uncertainty about when the European leaders will come up with a solution of the debt crisis investors should avoid the single currency. The specialists warn that it may take weeks for some developments in dealing with the current problems of the indebted euro zone’s nations. Nomura notes that EUR/USD is a very liquid instrument. For a long time the pair corresponded to the ups and downs in risk premiums on sovereign bonds. Since February, however, this correlation has become not that clear as the single currency gained versus the greenback on the rates differential between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. Now the risk premium on euro has once again begun increasing, but the state of things in the region has significantly deteriorated. As a result, the economists draw a conclusion that EUR/USD responds to sovereign risk only when it triggers systemic risk like it’s happening now. That’s why Nomura recommends trading not EUR/USD, but EUR/CHF regarding short positions on this pair as a sure gain as this cross has been very closely correlated with measures of systemic risk in the monetary union. So, the bank recommends being bearish on euro versus franc even though the pair’s already trading at the record minimums. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7993

"SocGen, UBS: the risk of euro’s collapse can’t be ruled out"(2011-07-15) Economists at Societe Generale and UBS are very pessimistic on the future of the euro area: the former advise investors to buy insurance against the collapse of the single currency, while the latter specify their recommendation say that Danish krone may be used for protection as the situation in the euro zone tends to worsen. According to UBS, as the European crisis escalates, Danmark grows more and more likely to send the peg of its national currency to euro. After suffering from some volatility in the short-term, krone will later strengthen versus other Scandinavian currencies and euro. The specialists claim that one shouldn’t lose time and has to hurry and hedge it money as the pair EUR/USD has mercifully returned above $1.40. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7991

"HSBC, Barclays Capital: comments on GBP/USD and EUR/GBP"(2011-07-15) Analysts at HSBC note that the rate of British currently is currently determined more by the dynamics of euro and US dollar, rather than be the factors specifically related to sterling. In their view, pound could gain independence in trading only if UK economic outlook changes either strongly improving or dramatically deteriorating. Until that happens GBP is going to find itself trapped between a rock and a hard place. All in all, HSBC sees the prospects of British economy and currency as rather pessimistic. Strategists at Barclays Capital note that the GBP/USD may be in a bear trap. The pattern will confirm if it closes today above $1.6140. As for EUR/GBP, the bank claims that after jumping from support in the 0.8745/40 zone it may be on its way up to 0.90. If euro drops below 0.8740, it will revisit May base in the 0.8610 region. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Chart. H4 EUR/GBP Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7989

"Wells Fargo: medium-term outlook for EUR/USD"(2011-07-15) One more medium-term forecast from analysts at Wells Fargo. In their view, the single currency will fall into the steady weakening pattern versus the greenback. As the main factors generating negative pressure on euro’s rate the specialists cite euro zone’s slow economic growth (as one may see from the leading indicators) and the increasing likelihood of ECB pausing its monetary tightening. Wells Fargo expects the pair EUR/USD to stay in range between $1.4100 and $1.4200 during the coming 3 months, then to drop to $1.4000 in the last quarter and slide to $1.3500 by the middle of the next year and to $1.3000 by the end of 2012. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7987

"EUR/JPY: forecasts from major banks"(2011-07-15) EUR/JPY: forecasts from major banks Data from Bloomberg Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7984

"USD/JPY: forecasts from major banks"(2011-07-15) USD/JPY: forecasts from major banks Data from Bloomberg Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7983

"GBP/USD: forecasts from major banks"(2011-07-15) GBP/USD: forecasts from major banks Data from Bloomberg Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7982

"EUR/USD: forecasts from major banks"(2011-07-15) EUR/USD: forecasts from major banks Data from Bloomberg Comment here EUR/USD: forecasts from major banks

"Commerzbank: EUR/USD on the way down to $1.3911"(2011-07-15) The single currency went up from 4-month minimum versus the greenback at $1.3837, but its rebound was capped by the breached 2011 uptrend support line at $1.4247 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from May to July at $1.4259. Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the pair EUR/USD is now poised down to the June minimum at $1.4073 and the 200-day MA at $1.3911. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7976

"Citigroup, RBS: bullish medium-term outlook for USD/JPY"(2011-07-15) Currency strategists at Citigroup believe that Moody’s giving the US the final warning will make the nation’s authorities hurry to reach a compromise the August 2 deadline. As a result, the specialists expect investors to stop selling the greenback. The bank especially sorts out the pair USD/JPY that may start strengthening later this year. As for the near term, American currency will likely remain under pressure as traders who used to be short on yen may be trying to cover their positions. In addition, though Citigroup projects that Japanese importers may increase demand for dollars, it won’t happen until September. However, it’s necessary to note that as Japanese monetary authorities are very concerned about the appreciation of the national currency, Japanese corporations may start buying dollars. According to the bank, USD/JPY will find support and bottom out at 77 yen. Analysts at RBS Securities are also bullish on dollar-yen. In their view, US economy will add about 3.5% in the second half of the year and that will be enough to push rate expectations significantly higher. Among the other dollar-positive factors the specialists cite Japanese production of autos and auto parts and lower gasoline prices. The specialists advise investors to go long on the pair buying below 79.50 and holding position for 3-6 months. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7973

Don’t miss new Forex Seminar tomorrow! - Admission is free Dear traders! On the 16th of July you have an exclusive opportunity to attend our Forex Seminar in Melaka as part of FBS Road Tour. If you are just a beginner you have a great chance to ask all your questions about Forex, learn a lot about trading strategies and trader skills. If you are a master of trading you may share your experience with other traders, learn more about success in Forex. Study groups on usage of Elliott Wave Principle, Fibonacci method and trend lines will be conducted. In addition, exciting contests, special bonuses and valuable prizes from FBS are waiting for you. Seminar takes place on the 16th of July from 10.00 am till 6.00 pm for Permaisuri MITC, Hotel Melaka, Lot 15232 Jalan Food City, Melaka International Trade Centre (MITC) 75450 Ayer Keroh, Melakа. Admission is free. The more you know about Forex, the more successful you are.

Follow us on Twitter and Facebook!!! Hi all! Find FBS on twitter and Facebook, and say it all... Find FBS in Facebook Follow FBS in Twitter Stay connected with FBS because its all about you!

"Wells Fargo: USD/JPY will gradually appreciate"(2011-07-14) Analysts at Wells Fargo are bullish on the greenback versus Japanese yen in the medium term. In their view, the pair USD/JPY will be appreciating slowly, but steadily. The specialists expect US currency to rise this year to 82.00 and then strengthen to 85.00 by the middle of 2012 and to 90.00 by the end of next year. Despite the fact that yen has gained much on the risk aversion created by the debt problems in the euro area and weak US economic data, the bank believes that yen has already reached its maximal levels. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7971

"UniCredit about SNB intervention"(2011-07-14) Swiss franc keeps strengthening versus the single currency as investors regard it as a safe haven during the times of euro zone’s dent crisis and looming US debt. Analysts at Commerzbank claim that demand for franc will remain high as long as European and American debt problems remain unsolved. The pair EUR/CHF hit today the record minimum at 1.1492. According to the Swiss National Bank’s Vice-Chairman Thomas Jordan, the central bank is concerned by such appreciation of the national currency and will be able to take the necessary steps in case deflationary risks reappear. SNB Chairman Philipp Hildebrand, however, noted that the central bank has no reason to take action at the moment as price stability was not threatened. Both of them declined to comment whether the SNB actually plans to intervene. Earlier, during the period since March 2009 to June 2010 the SNB was conducting currency interventions before it posted the biggest annual $21-billion loss ever last year. Analysts at UniCredit claim that even if the SNB tried to weaken the franc through renewed currency purchases it won’t achieve much as a lot of investors are using Switzerland as the only safe haven from the European crisis. In their view, the SNB can’t do anything because market forces are too powerful. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7969

"NAB: Aussie’s prospects in case of QE3 in the US"(2011-07-14) Yesterday the Federal Reserve’s Chairman Ben Bernanke claimed that the central bank will conduct more monetary stimulus in case of US economic growth slowdown. Analysts at National Australia Bank claim that even if the Fed actually does more quantitative easing, Australian dollar won’t experience as big surge versus its US counterpart as the one seen at the beginning of this year. The specialists note that in the last 2 rounds of QE the pair AUD/USD gained on average 7.0% in a month after the talk on the subject had begun and 11% in the six weeks afterwards. Aussie will be prevented from one more advance of that kind by the technical factors and the smaller size of any potential easing. Australian currency may rise from the current level to the levels in the $1.1100 area but it won’t manage to stay there for long. NAB strategists underlined that Australian dollar is already trading more than 20% above its fair value against the greenback. Today Aussie eased down from highs in the $1.0790 area to the levels around $1.0740. Strategists at RBC Capital Markets note that the pair’s advance stemmed ahead of Italian debt auction. Resistance for the pair is at $1.0800. Economists at Barclays Capital have a more bullish point of view as they think that if AUD/USD gets above $1.0805, it will be able to climb to $1.0890 and then to this year’s maximum in the $1.1015 zone. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7967

"Sumitomo expects US dollar to weaken"(2011-07-14) Analysts at Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co. expect the greenback to weaken. In their view, US currency will be affected by the continuous debates about raising US government’s debt limit and reducing budget deficits ahead of the August 2 deadline. The specialists claim that during the past few years the major central banks, especially Asian, tended to diversify their currency reserves decreasing the share of dollar assets. According to the bank, US dollar is gradually losing its status of the world’s main reserve currency. The debt-related factors add now to this pressure. One more reason for USD to weaken is the possibility of additional monetary stimulus in the United Stated confirmed yesterday by the Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke. As a result, Sumitomo economists advise traders to avoid American currency. The analysts claim that it may be necessary to cut their forecast for USD/JPY by the beginning of 2012 from 88 to 85 yen. The IMF data shows that the greenback’s share of global currency reserves declined in the first quarter to the minimal level since 1999 of 60.7%. Moody’s Investors Service put US top debt rating on the negative watch for the first time since 1995. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7965

"Commerzbank: negative middle-term outlook on GBP/USD"(2011-07-14) British pound went up from Tuesday's minimum at $1.5775 almost reaching $1.6200 today before easing down to $1.6125. Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that there’s a bunch of resistances in the $1.6211/62 area containing 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the advance from December to April, June 22 maximum and the channel resistance line. The specialists claim that the outlook for the pair GBP/USD will remain bearish in the middle term as long as it trades below $1.6262. In their view, sterling will drop to $1.5487 (50% retracement of the uptrend from 2010 to 2011) and $1.5347 (December minimum). Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7963

"Credit Agricole, BofTMUFJ, Investec: negative forecasts for euro"(2011-07-13) Strategists at Credit Agricole claim that the single currency has managed to rebound a bit as the initial panic caused by the surge of Italian yields faded. However, the fact that Italy got in the centre of market’s attention, which was previously focused mainly on Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, seriously undermines euro. In the short term the pair EUR/USD may advance more. Then, however, it will retest 4-month minimum at $1.3837 and will fall to $1.3400 by the end of September. Specialists at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ believe that Italy may once again make euro slump especially if the nation’s sovereign bond yields keep rising increasing the risk that Italian government will have to apply for external financial help. At the same time, the danger will remain even if the yields temper. The bank is getting more and more convinced that EUR/USD reversed down its uptrend from June 2010 lows. It’s more likely now that the ECB will pause monetary tightening this year. Analysts at Investec expect the European currency will be gradually weakening during the second half of 2011 to end the year at $1.35. The economists think that in a year EUR/USD may fall to $1.25. According to them, if the situation in the euro area keeps worsening, euro may sink even faster. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7961

"Commerzbank: comments on USD/CAD"(2011-07-13) The greenback jumped off the breached downtrend resistance line from August 2010 maximums. Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that if the pair USD/CAD closes above the week’s minimum at 0.9565, it will get chance to retest the 200-day MA at 0.9875. The specialists say that if US dollar drops below 0.9565, the pair will be poised down to 0.9527/0.9449 support area representing the minimums of the beginning of April and the middle of May. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7959