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"Moody’s and Fitch about US credit rating"(2011-08-03) Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings confirmed US top credit ratings but warned that the nation may be downgraded if it doesn’t manage to reduce the debt and its economy continues weakening. Moody’s claimed that the decision on the rating may be made within 2 years or “considerably sooner”. According to Fitch, the ratio of general government debt, including state and local governments’ debt, will reach 100% of GDP in 2012. That’s the most of any AAA-ranked country. The agency points out that while the rating may be cut in the medium term, the near-term risks aren’t very high as the agreement on lifting up the debt ceiling and cutting deficit is only a first step. Fitch plans to finish the rating’s review in August. For now the threat of US downgrade was overweighed by concerns about the nation’s economic slowdown that has been supporting demand for Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year bonds fell to 2.59% approaching the minimal levels since November and staying below the decade’s average of 4.05%. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase believe that in case of the downgrade US borrowing costs will be increasing by $100 billion a year, while 50-basis-point increase in Treasury yields would reduce American economic growth by about 0.4 percentage points. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8244

"NBER Committee about US economic prospects"(2011-08-03) US economic recovery that has been lasting for 2 years is now obviously losing its pace. Economists at Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, which determined the dates of recessions, don’t seem very optimistic about the nation’s growth prospects. Committee members believe that weakness in housing, employment, and business confidence and efforts to reduce debt by consumers and government are the main obstacles to growth. While the committee doesn’t forecast the odds of a recession, individual members can make their own predictions. Here are their comments reported by Bloomberg. Martin Feldstein (Harvard University): now there’s the 50% chance of the US falling into new recession. Robert Hall (Stanford University): the slower the growth rate, the more likely it is that an adverse shock would cause a recession. Consumption declines as debt repayments are reducing spending even this long after the crisis. Christina Romer (University of California): the risks of another recession have gone up for compared to what was 6 months ago. The economist expects anemic, but positive, growth. James Stock (Harvard University): new shock could spark a downturn, similar to the contraction after oil prices jumped with Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Business confidence has been shaken by the months-long debate over raising the debt ceiling. Jeffrey Frankel (Harvard University): spending cuts will reduce US economic growth next year. Robert Gordon (Northwestern University): the aftereffects of the housing bubble keep affecting the economy. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8239

"UBS, UniCredit: comments on the SNB"(2011-08-03) Analysts at UniCredit believe that today’s move of the Switzerland’s central bank will help to stabilize franc’s rate even if from the fundamental point of view the situation hasn’t changed. The specialists think that the SNB was absolutely right to step in. As the Swiss National Bank mentioned that the nation’s growth outlook has substantially deteriorated, the risk of a recession strongly increased. Strategists at UBS expect more interventions from the Swiss National Bank as the euro zone’s issues may keep the franc attractive for investors and more easing will be needed to stem its gains. In their view, the previous SNB interventions came at wrong times and acting at current levels could be more effective. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8238

"BarCap, RBS: Japan will follow SNB's example"(2011-08-03) Analysts at Barclays Capital believe that franc may be no longer regarded as the safe haven after the Swiss National Bank eased monetary policy to keep franc from further appreciation, so investors will likely turn to Japanese yen. As a result, the pressure on Japan’s monetary authorities will strengthen. According to BarCap, Japan must act quickly to stem yen’s advance if it means to do so. Strategists at RBS note that the Bank of Japan will seriously consider the option of easing monetary policy. The economists underline that Japan and Switzerland are facing similar challenges with regard to the strength of their currencies used as refuges from the European and US debt problems. In their view, it would be easier for Japanese officials to decide on intervention than it was for SNB which lost billions in 2010 trying to stem franc. RBS expects Japan's MOF to intervene after US non-farm payrolls data is released on Friday. Сhart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8237

[b]"Scotia Capital: low demand for both euro and dollar"(2011-08-03)[/b] [B][COLOR="black"][CENTER][IMG]http://img513.imageshack.us/img513/34/fbsana.png[/IMG][/CENTER] With much struggle the euro area and the United States are both through the major decisions aimed to improve the situation and reduce risks. Never the less, investors don’t hurry to rush in euro and dollar. Strategists at Scotia Capital believe that EUR/USD will trade in range between $1.3950 and $1.4700 and finish the third quarter at $1.45. The specialists note that, on the one hand, the European economic outlook remains uncertain due to the risk of slowdown combined with austerity measures that will certainly keep euro under pressure. On the other hand, dollar will suffer from high US fiscal deficit and debt and deteriorating economic prospects. The evidence for the latter is weak GDP readings, ISM PMI falling to 50.9 and declining consumer confidence. Analysts at Goldman Sachs claim that the pair may climb to $1.55 in a year, though, according to their forecast, the single currency will be able to strengthen more due to the general weakness of the greenback than to some euro-related factors. As a result, the odds are that EUR/USD will trade sideways for the rest of the year, so it’ probably better to trade another crosses. [CENTER][img]http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/3129/3191032lbhckuck.jpg[/img] [COLOR="red"]Chart. Daily EUR/USD[/COLOR][/CENTER] Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8234[/COLOR][/B]

"Paul Krugman: US has to increase but not reduce spending"(2011-08-03) Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman believes that US President Barrack Obama was wrong to compromise with Republicans on the debt ceiling agreement that includes government spending cuts. The famous economist thinks that the cuts will decrease the nation’s GDP while American economy is already weak. Krugman underlines that the bill doesn’t imply such measures as the extension of unemployment benefits as it was widely expected, so the country is likely to face the severe fiscal tightening. In his view, the austerity measures mean that US authorities are making the same mistakes as during the Great Depression. If the specialist was one in charge and there weren’t any political constraints he would increase spending as that could be financed at a relatively low interest rate.“The federal government can borrow. It can borrow with inflation-adjusted bonds at an interest rate at 0.3%. So this is a really good time to borrow for infrastructure spending, which we badly need and which would create jobs at a time when we badly need jobs,” says Krugman. According to him, the unemployment benefits are necessary to sustain spending power, though Krugman understands that now America can’t afford health care or entitlement spending as it needs more revenue in the longer term. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8232

"SNB cut rates to weaken franc"(2011-08-03) The Swiss National Bank loosened its monetary policy today in order to stem excessive appreciation of the national currency. Comments from SNB: - Franc is currently massively overvalued - Switzerland’s economy at threat, outlook worsened - Deflation risk grows The central bank: - is aiming to keep 3-month Libor rate as close to 0 as possible – the target range narrowed from 0.00-0.75% to 0.00-0.25%; - will increase the supply of liquidity to franc’s money market during the next few days; - is planning to expand banks’ sight deposits at the SNB from 30 to 80 billion francs; - no longer renew repos and SNB Bills that fall due and will repurchase outstanding SNB Bills, until the desired level of sight deposits has been reached. - is watching the foreign exchange market; - will act to stem franc’s appreciation if it’s necessary. The SNB’s move helped to ease Swiss franc down from its record maximums versus the single currency and the greenback. The pair EUR/CHF rose from 1.0794 to the levels above 1.1000, the pair USD/CHF went up from 0.7607 to the levels in the 0.7760 zone. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8230

Only three days left for NFP prediction !!! Dear traders! Who is the smartest trader of FBS? There are only three days left to test your analytical skills taking part in “Predict NFP” Contest. On the 5th of August at 12:30 GMT an influential statistic and economic indicator Nonfarm Payrolls will be published. First one to post the right number or the closest one will be the winner of the contest and get an exclusive T-shirt from FBS. T-Shirt from FBS Post your guess here: http://www.facebook.com/topic.php?uid=137183862987521&topic=513 Guesses are accepted till 8:30 GMT on 5.08.11. Contest details: http://www.fbs.com/contest/nfp

Winners of “999” tell us a secret of their trading !!! On the 27th of July “999” demo contest was completed. Today the winners share their impressions of the contest, give the beginners some advice about Forex and reveal the secret of successful trading. Nofa Diana (First place, 555 USD) Balance of her account by the end of the contest reached 132976.97 USD FBS:How long are you engaged in trading? How it has turned out, that you have got acquainted with exchange trading? N.D:I’ve heard about Forex business long time ago from my friend. FBS:What currency pair do you prefer to trade? Why? N.D:I like GBPUSD and EURUSD currency pairs. Because the movement of these currency pairs is quite stable and they have almost the same direction. FBS:Please tell about your impressions of participation in «999» contest. N.D:I am very happy that FBS held this competition because it can add knowledge and insight in trading as well as the experience in making strategy for opening position. Moreover there are gifts that are given by the FBS to each trader who won the contest. FBS:What trading strategy did you use during the contest «999»? N.D:During the contest I used the support and resistance tools together with a Bollinger Bands. Bollinger band was used to measure the level of the price; meanwhile the support and resistance tools were used to limit the price. FBS:What qualities in your opinion should possess the trader to be successful in trading? N.D:A trader will be successful if he has knowledge of price movement, whether because of fundamental analysis or technical analysis. And even more important is the system we have been using. And it has proven the back-testing or forward-testing. FBS:What could you advise to traders-beginners? N.D:If a beginner wants to jump into the Forex business, he must have some knowledge of the market price movement. Also he needs to know about the tools and how they work. There are many facilities that are provided by the FBS for the beginners. Legostaev Sergey (Second place, 333 USD) Balance of his account by the end of the contest reached 114144.91 USD FBS:How long are you engaged in trading? How it has turned out, that you have got acquainted with exchange trading? L.S:I’ve been trading in Forex since 2009. I heard about exchange trade long time ago, but I got to know about possibility to trade via Internet by chance when I saw some Russian broker advertisement. FBS:What currency pair do you prefer to trade? Why? L.S:My preferences depend on market situation, but I try to choose highly volatile currency pairs. For example, after the earthquake in Japan I actively traded main currency pairs with Japanese Yen: USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY. Other example: I was trading pairs with EUR in July, because EURO activity was observed due to economical situation in Greece and Italy. FBS:Please tell us about your impressions of participation in «999» contest. L.S:The contest made a favourable impression on me. When I started my trading in “999”, I didn’t expect to be among the winners and my trading was not very active. When after 2 weeks I found myself among the first ten contestants, I became more attentive and hardly ever risked. I think that the contest is competently organized. Top list is quickly updated and the results were released promptly. I would like to mention, that I was surprised with the small number of participants from Russia and Ukraine, and large number of contestants from Indonesia FBS:What trading strategy did you use during the contest «999»? L.S: I was trying to follow the trend, but I didn’t look too far ahead. My profit in each order was 100-150 pips. And almost always lot was maximum possible. Generally I used technical analysis and simple indicators from MT4. FBS:What qualities in your opinion should possess the trader to be successful in trading? L.S:In my opinion, successful trader firstly must to be patient and enduring. Moreover, like everywhere, it is necessary to be hard-working and have at list a little luck. FBS:What could you advise to traders-beginners? L.S:Listen to nobody! Make a decision based on your own experience and wit. Julianto (Third place, 111 USD) Balance of his account by the end of the contest reached 97797.44 USD FBS:How long are you engaged in trading? How it has turned out, that you have got acquainted with exchange trading? J:I've been trading for more than 1 year and I would like to say that there is a big opportunity in this business. FBS:What currency pair do you prefer to trade? Why? J:I prefer EURJPY and EURUSD, they just fit my strategies. FBS:Please tell about your impressions of participation in «999» contest. J:The contest is great, very educative and challenging. FBS:What trading strategy did you use during the contest «999»? J:My trading is based on technical analysis (Elliot waves) without the use of Expert Advisors FBS:What qualities in your opinion should possess the trader to be successful in trading? J:I think that they should believe in themselves and must be disciplined with their strategy FBS:What could you advise to traders-beginners? J:I would recommend them not hurry to invest real money, but look for their own trading strategy and participate in such competitions. We would like to remind you that the registration for the next level of “999” is open till 15.08.11 Contest period: 16.08.11-16.09.11 Contest details: http://www.fbs.com/contest/999

"IMF: Britain’s economic outlook"(2011-08-02) The International Monetary Fund claimed today that if UK economic growth remains weak and the unemployment stays high, British monetary authorities will need to extend stimulus measures, for example, reduce taxes or do more quantitative easing. The IMF kept its forecast for the nation’s GDP advance at 1.5% in 2011 and 2.3% the next year. British consumers are suffering from high inflation twice above the Bank of England’s 2% target. In the second quarter British GDP added only 0.2% compared with the level of the first 3 months of the year, while the annual growth accounted for 0.7%. Prime Minister David Cameron has pledged to continue conducting austerity measures to decrease the deficit. For now the IMF recommends Britain’s government and the central bank to stick to their current policy as the weakness in economic growth and high inflation rate may turn out to be temporary. The BoE will announce its policy decisions on Thursday, August 4, at 3:00 pm (GMT + 4). Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the central bank to leave the borrowing costs at the current 0.5% level continue purchasing bonds with 200 billion pounds ($329 billion). Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8227

"Barclays Capital: buy NZD/USD on the dips"(2011-08-02) New Zealand’s dollar went down from its record maximum versus its US counterpart at $0.8845 hit yesterday to the levels in the $0.8720 area. Analysts at Barclays Capital believe that NZD/USD will drop to $0.8610 and advise to buy kiwi on the dips. Strategists at RBS claim that support for the pair is found at $0.8680, while resistance is situated at $0.8845. Chart. H4 NZD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8225

"Morgan Stanley: GBP/USD will fall to $1.49"(2011-08-02) Currency strategists at Morgan Stanley expect the British currency to fall versus the greenback by the end of the year to $1.49. In their view, last month the demand for pound was high as investors who wanted to escape uncertainty associated with American and European debt problems perceived it as a safe haven. The specialists believe that sterling will become more determined by UK economic situation. The pair GBP/USD rose from $1.5780 on July 12 to $1.6470 on July 29. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8223

"Okasan Securities, ANZ: bearish view on US dollar"(2011-08-02) The House of Representatives approved legislation to raise the US debt limit by at least $2.1 trillion and cut federal spending by $2.4 trillion or more. The measure goes to the Senate for a final vote planned today. Such increase of the debt ceiling should be enough to fund the government until 2013. Analysts at Okasan Securities believe that the markets will wonder whether the debt agreement will work. Another source for concerns is the potential negative impact the spending cuts may weigh on growth. The specialists claim that US currency won’t manage to show sustainable growth. According to the data released yesterday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 55.3 in June to 50.9 in July, the lowest level since July 2009. Analysts at ANZ note that the level of confidence in the US and its medium-term growth outlook has been seriously damaged. The specialists point out that the administration of the world's largest economy has problems where it shouldn’t have. In their view, dollar will find itself under a very negative pressure. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8221

"BOTMUFJ: USD/JPY may renew minimums"(2011-08-02) Analysts at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ note that the greenback may renew historical minimums versus Japanese yen. In their view, Japan’s Ministry of Finance is reluctant to intervene at the moment. The specialists underline that Japanese retail investors are positioned for a weakening yen, with lots of stops just below the 76 area. If US credit rating is reduced, a sudden surge of yen could force these positions to liquidate and push US dollar to break the previous record low of 76.25. If yen breaks below the record minimum at 76.25, the trade will become extremely volatile and the MOF will buy USD/JPY. Currency strategists at Rabobank claim that on the upside USD/JPY will face resistance at 77.67 and 78.00. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8219

"HSBC: EUR/USD will finish the year at $1.44"(2011-08-02) Analysts at HSBC believe that the demand for US dollars won’t plunge in case the United States loses its top credit rating as there aren’t many alternatives to the world’s reserve currency. In their view, America remains a massive and liquid market that will keep attracting investors. The specialists note that German bunds would be suitable for replacing treasuries unless they weren’t issued in euro. According to HSBC’s forecast, the pair EUR/USD will finish the year at $1.44. In the longer term, however, the analysts expect the greenback to be gradually depreciating. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8217

"BNP Paribas, JPMorgan: the prospects of intervention in Japan"(2011-08-02) Yesterday Japanese currency has almost reached the record maximum of 76.25 yen per dollar hit in March 16. Then, however, yen eased down to the levels in the 77.30 zone. The pair USD/JPY managed to recover a bit on the expectations that the nation’s monetary authorities will perform currency intervention. Japan’s officials have voiced a lot of concerns about the appreciation of the national currency during the past week as strong yen is likely to shaken the economy that suffered in March from the most devastating earthquake in its history. Analysts at BNP Paribas note that in the past the Bank of Japan’s interventions only slowed down the pace of yen’s strengthening but didn’t manage to stop this process. The specialists that if the central bank decided to act this time, its efforts will be once again in vain unless it eases its monetary policy. Pay attention to the BOJ policy meeting will take place on Friday. Economists at JPMorgan are rather pessimistic about the results of the potential intervention saying they will be limited. In their view, even in this case the greenback will gain 2-3% but won’t be able to rise to the 80 yen level. The specialists think that US dollar will manage to reverse the downtrend only if the Federal Reserve significantly raises rates and they are pretty sure it won’t happen until 2013. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8215

"Citi: RBA won’t raise rates until 2012"(2011-08-02) The Reserve bank of Australia decided today to keep the interest rates unchanged at 4.75% citing the uncertainty at the global financial markets. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets note that investors were looking forward to hawkish comments, but what they’ve actually got was a balanced statement. Strategists at Citi claim that the central bank won’t raise the borrowing costs until 2012. The specialists underline that the RBA is not as concerned with inflation pressure as they used to think. In their view, for the central bank to hike rates in the near term the world’s economic outlook has to improve greatly and the consumer prices growth rate in the third quarter should be really high. Economists at JPMorgan point out that the 3Q inflation data is released at the end of October, so the RBS is unlikely to tighten monetary policy earlier. The bank expects RBS to act in November. Analysts at ICAP Australia claim that Australian dollar is clearly under bearish pressure. The pair AUD/USD went down from the July 27 maximum at 1.1079 to the levels in the 1.0880 area. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8214

"The unemployment rate isn’t likely to decline"(2011-08-01) The majority of analysts are rather pessimistic about US Non-Farm Payrolls data due on Friday, August 4, at 16:30 (GMT+4). It’s thought that the payrolls won’t rise high enough to reduce the unemployment rate. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect American employers to create 90,000 jobs in July after 18,000 in June, while the unemployment rate is seen at the same 9.2% level. Analysts at ING Bank note that the US firms and households are very cautious due to the high uncertainty and the companies seem to be very reluctant about hiring new people. The shortage of jobs will likely affect consumer spending increasing the risks for the economic growth. Consumer spending added 0.1% in the second quarter, the smallest gain since the same period of 2009. Analysts at Pierpont Securities note that for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged payrolls have to add 125,000 a month, while in order to reduce it by percentage point over a year they should increase by 200,000 a month. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8211

"Commerzbank: EUR/CHF keeps falling"(2011-08-01) The single currency once again renewed the record minimum versus Swiss franc falling to 1.1262. Economists at Brown Brothers Harriman note that this means that the potential resolution to the US debt ceiling will turn the market's focus back to the euro-zone peripheral nations. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that EUR/CHF is on its way down to the support line of the downtrend from April to July at 1.11. According to the bank, the pair will find support at the psychological level of 1.10 and then only at 1.0775. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8209

"UBS: forecasts for USD/CHF and EUR/CHF"(2011-08-01) Swiss currency that eased down versus the greenback after the news that US authorities have reached compromise on the debt ceiling, has once again renewed the record maximum. Currency strategists at UBS note that franc remains near all-time highs against all of its main counterparts as the uncertainty levels are still high. According to Switzerland’s Economy Minister, the appreciation of the national currency isn’t temporary and one should expect it to decline soon. The official underline that this would affect the country’s economy. In his view, the unemployment is likely to increase. UBS specialists give the following forecasts for USD/CHF and EUR/CHF: 0.86 and 1.20 respectively in a month and 0.89 and 1.25 – in 3 months. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8207

"Barclays Capital: comments on USD/JPY"(2011-08-01) Analysts at Barclays Capital note that at the beginning of today’s trading day the greenback managed to rise to 78.05 regaining the grounds lost on Friday but then was stopped by the resistance and returned down to the 77 yen area. The specialists believe that the 78.05 level will now represent the key obstacle for USD/JPY. As long as the pair is trading lower, it risks falling to the record minimum at 76.25 hit on March 16. If US dollar closed higher, it will be able to rise to 79.35/60. According to Barclays, the first scenario seems to be more possible. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8205

"BNP Paribas, JP Morgan: QE3 possible in the US"(2011-08-01) Analysts warn that the US economy risks falling in another recession. American GDP gained 1.3% in the second quarter on the annual basis, while the first quarter figures were revised down to 0.4% that is the lowest level since the recovery began in June 2009. The Q2 GDP accounted for $13.27 trillion that is lower than $13.33 trillion peak in the final quarter of 2007. It’s necessary to note that the recession data has been so far revised down by 25%: according to the latest figures, during the period from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2009 US economy contracted by 5.1%, while the previously reported reading showed 4.1% drop. The experts see the future outlook for America as rather dim. Economists at Deutsche Bank lowered the forecast for the third quarter from 3.5% to 2.5% and from 4.3% to 3 for Q4. Barclays Capital decreased estimates for the third quarter and the following five by a percentage point. Analysts at BNP Paribas and JP Morgan believe that the slowdown may make the Federal Reserve consider the possibility of the third round of quantitative easing. Strategists at Societe Generale think that the greenback won’t be able to gain much in the current conditions. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8204

"Compromise in the US: market’s sentiment improved"(2011-08-01) The pair USD/JPY jumped today from the 4-month minimum at 76.88 hit on Friday to 78.04 and then eased back down to the 77.30 area. The pair USD/CHF is also trading above the all-time minimum at 0.7853. It happened as US President Barack Obama announced that the White house and the Congress have at last agreed on the plan to prevent a default. The agreement includes raising the nation’s debt limit by $2.1 trillion and cutting the federal budget deficit by $2.5 trillion over a decade. The analysts at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce note that the tension level has eased as at the end of last week investors got nervous about the lack of compromise on the back of an approaching deadline. It’s necessary to note, however, that the risks of the United States losing top AAA credit rating remain high. Last week S&P said that if the spending cuts have to be lo less than $4 trillion to rule out the threat of the downgrade. Currency strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch note that spending contraction will make the Federal Reserve keep the rates unchanged for a long time. In their view, there will be no hikes until US economic growth pace is below the long-term trend of 3%. Analysts at Barclays Capital think that the Fed will stay on hold during the whole next year. According to the data from Commodity Futures Trading Commission, net bets against dollar rose to 310,222 contracts as of July 26 from 272,444 a week before. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8200

"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF"(2011-08-01) Weekly USD/CHF The downtrend on the pair USD/CHF since the beginning of the year continues. So far the technical picture changed a little – US dollar kept methodically renewing record lows with declines alternating with occasional corrections. The Ichimoku Cloud is still declining showing that the bears still dominate the market, while the Turning line (1) and the Standard line (2) are providing resistance for the prices. The lines Tenkan (1) and Kijun (2) are directed horizontally. The pair opened above last week’s closing level. Chart. Weekly USD/CHF Daily USD/CHF On the daily chart the situation as well didn’t change much. The bulls are still facing resistance of the Turning line (1), the Standard line (2) and the descending Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4). The lagging Chinkou Span, represented with a green line, has deviated rather far from the price chart. As a result, it’s possible to assume that the bulls may move higher. At the same, it’s necessary to remember that the resistance levels are strong enough. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8192

"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY"(2011-08-01) Weekly USD/JPY Last week the pair USD/JPY has lost almost 130 pips approaching its postwar minimum. Tenkan-sen (2) and Kijun-sen (1) still keep in place the “dead cross” formed below Kumo (3). The Ichimoku Cloud (3) narrowed, though it’s still creating negative pressure for the pair. The Turning line (2) and the Standard line (1) keep acting as a resistance. Kijun-sen (1) is horizontal that leaves the room for consolidation. Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Daily USD/JPY On the daily chart Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) turned horizontal. The lines still hold the “dead cross” in place – that’s the strong bearish signal as it was formed below Kumo. The Turning line (1) limits the prices, so the bulls will have to try very hard to overcome this resistance. The Ichimoku Cloud (3) is also descending, though it’s not wide that means that the bears are rather vulnerable. The market was talking about the potential intervention of Japanese monetary authorities to stem yen’s gains. Never the less, the country’s officials realize that the appreciation of their national currency is caused by external factors, so they’ve decided to wait until the uncertainty in the US fades away. Though the agreement on raising the debt ceiling wasn’t signed yet, Barrack Obama announced that the Democrats and the Republicans had finally reached compromise. As a result, the demand for yen as a safe haven decreased and the prices began this week growing. If the news from US remain positive, this will help the bulls will manage to move higher. However, the resistance they are facing is very strong and the odds are that America will be downgraded. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8191