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"BoE Inflation Report: forecasts are cut"(2011-08-10) According to the Bank of England’s quarterly inflation report released today, UK economic growth is likely to remain sluggish due to continuing squeeze on households’ real incomes. As a result, consumer prices growth rate is expected to be rather moderate: in the medium term the central bank sees inflation a little below the 2% target level. The central bank believes that inflation would peak around 5% this year before falling to 1.8% during the next 2 years. The GDP growth pace forecast for 2011 was reduced from 2.5% (May estimate) to 2.0%. British monetary authorities underline the necessity of keeping the policy very loose in 2011 and 2012 as the global economy is surviving difficult times. The BoE notes that the euro zone debt crisis affects Britain's economic recovery, though these risks are hard to quantify, so they aren’t taken into account in its forecast. It’s also necessary to understand that the report was accomplished before the recent volatile moves of the market, so the forecasts don’t reflect the slump of equities and commodity prices seen so far. As a result, UK economy is even in worse shape than it’s presented in the report. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8318

"RBC: the pace of China's exports growth will slow down"(2011-08-10) According to the data, released today, China's exports added 20.4% in July on the annual basis after 17.9% increase in June. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets note that the nation’s economy keeps benefiting from external demand. The specialists warned, however, that in the second half of the year the demand may weaken due to the problems in the United States and Europe. At the same time RBC doesn’t think that the situation will be as grief as it was in 2008. Strategists at BNP Paribas share such opinion. The bank forecasts that China's exports growth will slow down to around 10% in the coming months. Currency strategists at ANZ claim that, on the one hand, July trade surplus that exceeded the market’s expectations points at stronger inflationary pressures, so that the People’s Bank of China will be urged to tighten monetary policy to curb excessive liquidity. On the other hand, further tightening may affect the country’s GDP growth. As a result, the specialists think that the PBOC may watch how the things go during the next few months before it comes up with any actions. In their view, the central bank may speed up yuan’s appreciation to ease inflationary pressure in the near term. Yuan rose to a 17-year maximum after yesterdays FOMC meeting and the talk that China’s central bank will allow the national currency to strengthen to curb inflation. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8316

"Societe Generale: SNB once again tries to weaken franc"(2011-08-10) The Swiss National Bank made another attempt to weaken the national currency. The central bank said today that it will significantly increase the supply of liquidity the Swiss franc market. The SNB announced that it will expand banks’ sight deposits from 80 to 120 billion Swiss francs ($166 billion). In addition, it will conduct foreign-exchange swap transactions to create liquidity. The SNB pledged to keep acting against franc’s appreciation which threatens price stability in Switzerland by increasing deflation risks. The majority of experts criticize SNB’s actions. Strategists at Societe Generale believe that investors will be buying francs even with the negative Libor rate. Analysts at Credit Suisse note that increasing liquidity by using forex swaps is costly. The specialists doubt that the lower relative attractiveness will manage to stop safe-haven inflows. Economists at Commerzbank also think that the SNB won’t be able to achieve its goals. According to them, the Switzerland’s central bank simply expanded the inappropriate easing measures, while market was looking forward to some signs of intervention. The pair EUR/CHF rose from the levels close to parity – from the record minimum at 1.0065 – to the current daily high at 0.0525. Chart. H4 EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8312

"Commerzbank: comments on USD/CHF"(2011-08-10) The greenback slumped yesterday versus Swiss franc to the record minimum at 0.7064. Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that USD/CHF has reached the bottom of the downtrend channel within which the pair was trading in 2010 and 2011. The specialists see no signs of the trend reversal. On the downside US dollar has support at the psychological level at 0.7000. According to the bank, resistance levels are situated at 0.7353 and 0.7530/0.7675. The strategists say that the bearish pressure on US currency will ease only if it breaks above the accelerated downtrend at 0.7888. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8310

"Nomura: euro area is the main source of risk"(2011-08-10) Currency strategists at Nomura note that though the major part of the recent concerns was about the United States, the real threat comes from Europe. The specialists note that Spanish and Italian bond yields climbed so high that the European Central Bank was forced to step in. The ECB is currently trying to stabilize the markets by purchasing the government debt of the nations in question. Nomura analysts, however, believe that as the rollover needs in Italy and Spain are very large the central bank will have to buy huge amounts of bonds to succeed. The bank thinks that the ECB doesn’t have enough funding, so it finds itself in a very difficult position. The bank advises to sell euro against Swiss franc. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8308

"The results of the FOMC meetingt"(2011-08-10) Here are the essentials of the Federal Reserve’s yesterday’s statement: - The Federal Funds Rate is likely to remain low at least through the middle of 2013 due to the poor economic conditions (the Fed left the borrowing costs unchanged in 0-0.25% range). - Economic growth this year is considerably lower than committee had expected. The nation’s economy is seen recovering at slower pace during the coming quarters, while the unemployment will decline only gradually. - American central bank is ready to use additional tools to stimulate the national economy. However, 3 FOMC members – Fisher, Kocherlakota and Plosser – are against action, preferring to retain extended period language. US monetary authorities didn’t mention the possibility of the third round of quantitative easing (QE3). At the same time, many economists think that there will be comments on this topic at the Jackson Hole Fed’s summit that will take place at the end of August. In 2010 the Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke announced the QE2 at that meeting. The Fed’s comments didn’t calm the market’s concerns about the global economic slowdown encouraging demand for refuge currencies such as Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8306

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"BBH: dollar won’t suffer much from US downgrade"(2011-08-08) Currency strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman believe that US downgrade won’t strongly affect US dollar’s rate. According to BBH, American currency will be driven by the rating cut only in the shortest term. The specialists expect the greenback to consolidate versus its main counterparts. In their view, the pair EUR/USD will stay in the recent broad range between $1.4000 and $1.4600. The analysts think that the pair GBP/USD will keep trading between $1.6200 and $1.6600. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8288

"UBS: the pair AUD/USD will fall to parity"(2011-08-08) Technical analysts at UBS give bearish outlook for AUD/USD. In their view, Australian dollar will go down well below the parity with its US counterpart. The specialists note that S&P’s decision to downgrade the US will strongly increase the market’s risk aversion in the coming days. Aussie may get under significant downside pressure due to the weaker equities and falling commodity prices as well as due to the general increase in forex volatility, claims UBS. On the downside, support levels for the pair are found at 1.0330 and 1.0290. On the upside, resistance levels lie at 1.0440 and 1.0470. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8280

"Commerzbank: comments on USD/CHF and EUR/CHF"(2011-08-08) Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that below the 25-year support line in the 0.7554/0.7550 area the greenback has no support versus Swiss franc until 0.7410 and then 0.7160, the base of the 2010-2011 channel. In the near-term the divergence in 4-hour charts and the divergence of the daily RSI indicate the possibility of an upside correction. The specialists note that resistance for USD/CHF is situated at 0.7725. In order to strengthen to the 6-month downtrend line at 0.8285, US dollar has to overcome the accelerated downtrend at 0.7944. The bank recommends squaring trades, attempting tiny shorts on a rebound to 0.7725 adding at 0.7825, stopping at 0.7945 and covering position at 0.7410. Chart. Daily USD/CHF As for the pair EUR/CHF, Commerzbank expects in to consolidate in the near-term underlining that the single currency hasn't broken up the first resistance level. Then euro will survive another slump to 1.0550. If the ECB doesn’t manage to support euro and franc keeps appreciating, the Swiss National Bank will intervene, thinks the bank. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8278

"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF"(2011-08-08) Weekly USD/CHF The easing of the Swiss National bank’s monetary policy didn’t help to stop franc’s appreciation – as S&P reduced US credit rating investors’ risk sentiment has further deteriorated encouraging demand for safe Switzerland’s currency. The greenback’s downtrend continues. US dollar has once again renewed the record minimum at 0.7526. The Ichimoku Cloud is still moving down showing that the bears dominate the market, while the Turning line (1) and the Standard line (2) provide resistance for the prices. All lines of the indicator are going down (1, 2, 3 and 4). The technical outlook for the pair remains negative. Chart. Weekly USD/CHF Daily USD/CHF The situation on the daily chart is almost the same. The bulls still face resistance in the form of the Turning line (1), the Standard line (2) and rising Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4). The lagging Chinkou Span, represented with a green line, has deviated rather far from the price chart, though high demand for franc let the bulls to achieve last week nothing but a small correction close to the record lows. The pair continues its decline – there’s no support at the nearby levels. At the same time, it’s necessary to take into account that the SNB has taken rather active position and may act more in order to stem the appreciation of the national currency, though the major interventions will likely traditionally be conducted at EUR/CHF market. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8276

"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY"(2011-08-08) Weekly USD/JPY The Bank of Japan intervened at the currency market that led to the spike on the USD/JPY chart. Never the less, the efforts of Japanese monetary authorities weren’t enough to reverse up at least the short-term trend – Tenkan-sen (1) stopped declining but went horizontally, The longer-term Kijun-sen (2) goes stubbornly sideways. The demand for yen remained high as Standard & Poor’s decided to reduce UD debt rating making investors search for refuge in yen. At the same time, the decline of American currency is likely to be limited due to the concerns of more actions of Japan’s authorities at the forex market. Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) still keep in place the “dead cross” formed below Kumo (3). The Ichimoku Cloud (3) narrowed, though it’s still creating negative pressure for the pair. The Turning line (1) and the Standard line (2) keep acting as a resistance. The pair is likely to consolidate in the area of Tenkan-sen (1). Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Daily USD/JPY Last Thursday the pair USD/JPY broke up through both Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) due to the intervention of Japan’s central bank and then declined below the Standard lien on Friday (2) and opened the new week below the Turning line (1). On the daily chart the lines Tenkan and Kijin still hold the “dead cross” in place – that’s the strong bearish signal as it was formed below Kumo. The Ichimoku Cloud (3), though narrowed, but continues going down. The Turning line and the Standard line are horizontal. The pair may consolidate between the record lows in the 76.30 area and Kijun at 78.88 yen. It’s necessary to be cautious if the greenback keeps weakening as the Bank of japan may intervene more. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8275

"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2011-08-08) Weekly GBP/USD Last week the bears have won though Kijun-sen managed to provide support for the prices (2). Below the Standard line the pair GBP/USD will be supported by Tenkan-sen. All lines of the indicator have turned horizontal (1, 2 and 3). The Cloud isn’t wide, though it’s still bullish and provides significant support for pound. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD On the daily chart all lines of the Indicator have turned horizontal (1, 2, 3 and 4). During the last week pound was trading between 1.6250 and 1.6450. The candles were long with short shadows – the bulls and the bears were in turn taking over the initiative pushing the market in their directions. The prices have started new week above the Turning line (1) and above Kumo – sterling has good support. The Ichimoku Cloud that has recently turned up (4) goes steady sideways – the lines Senkou Span A and B are horizontal. As a result, the technical picture for the pair is neutral – pound may keep consolidating. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8274

"S&P reduced US credit rating"(2011-08-08) Standard & Poor’s reduced US credit rating by one notch on August 5 stirring up concerns about the nation’s fiscal health. The agency kept negative outlook for American rating as it’s not clear whether the Congress will end Bush-era tax cuts or tackle entitlements. According to S&P, if spending reductions are lower than agreed to, interest rates go up or the general government debt rises, the rating may be cut from AA+ to AA within 2 years. The other leading agencies – Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings – confirmed their top estimates of US debt on August 2 when President Barack Obama signed a bill that helped United States avoid default. Moody’s and Fitch also underline the possibility of downgrades if lawmakers fail to enact debt-reduction measures and the economy weakens. The pair USD/CHF hit the record minimum in the 0.7530 area. The pair USD/JPY dropped from the intervention maximum at 80.23 hit on August 4 to the levels in the 77.80 zone. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8270

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"BOTMUFJ: EUR/USD may fall to $1.39"(2011-08-05) Technical analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ claim that the single currency may fall versus the greenback to the 3-week minimum at $1.39 (200-day MA, orange on the chart) in a week. The specialists note that EUR/USD formed the “dead cross” yesterday: the 5-day MA (green) for the pair went down below the 20-day MA (brown) – the bearish signal. In addition, there are 3 declining trend lines: the first one connects May 4 and July 4 maximums, the second – daily minimums since July 28, and the third – July 27, August 1 and August 4 maximums. According to Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ’s forecast, the pair that’s declining since May is likely to keep falling during another several months, though the odds of breaking below $1.39 aren’t high. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8268

"UBS: Japanese authorities will remain active"(2011-08-05) Analysts at UBS believe that Japanese monetary authorities understand that they won’t be able to reverse yen’s uptrend, so they have more modest goals. The specialists think that the nation’s Ministry of Finance is trying to push USD/CHF to the range within it was trading before the US debt limit debates escalated negative pressure on the greenback. In their view, the realistic short-term target for the pair is situated in the 79.00 zone. The bank underlines that 2 days ago Takehiko Nakao succeeded Rintaro Tamaki as Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs inheriting operational responsibility for intervention. That may mean that the MoF and the Bank of Japan may elaborate more active approach. Japan’s Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda has already pointed out that the nation’s monetary authorities may turn to the tactics widely used in 1995 that involved the chain of interventions that lasted 8 months. So, investors should be prepared to see the BOJ continuously acting at the forex market. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8266

"Commerzbank: EUR/CHF remains under pressure"(2011-08-05) The single currency remains under pressure versus Swiss franc due to the global risk-off sentiment. The concerns are partly caused by risk that the debt crisis will spread to other euro zone nations. Technical analysts at Commerzbank underline that EUR/CHF didn’t manage to rise above the 38.2% retracement of the recent decline at 1.1216. According to the specialists, the pair will slide to support in the 1.0550 area. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8264

"BNY Mellon: euro will get support from interventions"(2011-08-05) Analysts at Bank of New York Mellon believe that while both the BOJ and the SNB are making enormous efforts to weaken their national currencies will make investors less certain about buying them. The specialists note that the interventions will give the European currency some support. According to the bank, euro performed well enough when Japan intervened in September. At the same time, it’s necessary to note that Bank of New York Mellon isn’t bullish on euro. The analysts just think that the pair EUR/USD won’t sink to $1.30 or lower during the next few months. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8262

"Citigroup: buy yen and franc though with caution"(2011-08-05) Japanese yen and Swiss franc are traditionally seen as the safe haven currencies. However, the Bank of Japan’s intervention made yen slump by 300 pips in several hours ruining investors’ positions, while the Swiss National Bank’s pledge to keep the interest rates near zero also hit the market players. That’s not what one expects from the refuge currencies. Currency strategists at Citigroup claim that the speculators will now get more cautious, but the demand for yen and franc will remain high in times of extreme risk aversion such as the one that would occur in case of a global double-dip recession. As a result, yen and franc may be still used to avoid high risk, but one should watch out for central banks. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8261

"BBH: comments on euro zone’s agenda"(2011-08-04) Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman note that today’s ECB meeting will be very important taking into account intensifying stresses in the euro area. The specialists underline that the markets will watch if Trichet gives hawkish comments using his coded language. It may happen that the European Central Bank will decide to pause its tightening cycle given the fact that the region’s economy is weak and the Swiss National Bank eased its monetary policy yesterday. In addition, there will be some political news from Europe. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi will speak before parliament and Spain’s Prime Minister Jose Luis Zapatero canceled his holiday in order to address problems in Spain. BBH specialists, however, think that such measures won’t help to increase investors’ confidence in the ability of euro zone’s authorities to overcome the crisis. In their view, European policymakers will act only in case another serious slump of the market. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8257

"Analysts’ comments on BOJ intervention"(2011-08-04) Mizuho: it was the right timing to step in taking into account the weak manufacturing PMI data and due to the fact that after Switzerland’s action yesterday there was a risk that yen would have extended gains alone. UBS: it’s not clear whether the intervention is designed to slow the yen's gradual advance or to defend a line in the sand. Any attempt to encourage a reversal of the yen's multi-year uptrend will fail. Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda has already noted that the nation’s monetary authorities may use the tactics deployed in 1995 that involved an eight-month campaign of sporadic and sometimes daily interventions. So, investors should be ready to more active steps of the BOJ. Westpac: historical experience allows assuming that the BOJ action will support USD/JPY for a few days maximum, but won’t be able to change the general downtrend. RBS: monetary authorities won’t be able to change USD/JPY downtrend. US dollar will remain weak due to the concerns about American economic slowdown and expectations of more quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve. Societe Generale: the BOJ aims for new range and not for trend reversal. Yen is driven primarily by falling US yields. It’s good for Japan that taking into account US debt issues American yields can't fall much further. Today’s intervention may help dollar to get firm support at 76.00. However, in order to return to the levels in the 80.00 area the outlook for Fed’s rates, not for BOJ ones, has to change. Citigroup: BOJ may have greater resolve than in March or September. The pair USD/JPY is facing resistance in the 79.50/80.00 zone. Credit Suisse: intervention can’t be called successful until yen gets below 80 against US dollar. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8255

"Yoshihiko Noda: Japan conducted one-sided intervention"(2011-08-04) Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda confirmed that the Bank of Japan intervened today in the interbank market buying US dollars versus yen. Noda didn’t unveil the details such as the scale and the levels of the one-sided intervention. According to the market’s estimates, the BOJ sold more than 1 trillion yen. Some traders even think that the amount may be even higher than that of the biggest one-day intervention conducted on September 15. Japan’s central bank stepped in trying to stem the appreciation of the national currency after the Swiss National Bank moved yesterday in the same direction. Both Japanese yen and Swiss franc are safe haven currencies that tend to strengthen during the times of high risk aversion like it has been so far. That makes Japan’s and Switzerland’s economies hurt. The pair USD/JPY surged from 76.95 and approached the 80.00 level. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8253

"Commerzbank: comments on USD/CHF and EUR/CHF"(2011-08-04) The greenback rebounded from the record minimum versus Swiss franc in the 0.7600 area and is on its way up to 0.7800. Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that there are signs of reversal after the Swiss National Bank eased yesterday its monetary policy. The RSI on dollar shows that it’s oversold. The specialists expect the pair USD/CHF to stabilize above the 25-year support line at 0.7554/50 that connects the minimums from 1987. Chart. Daily USD/CHF As for the pair EUR/CHF, it also is trying to stabilize after it once again tested 1.0795/1.0800, claims the bank. According to Commerzbank, resistance levels for the pair are situated at 1.1216 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the most recent decline) and 1.1365 (July 18 minimum). As long as the single currency is trading below these levels it risks falling to 1.0775 and 1.0550. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8251

"Scotia Capital: recommendations ahead of BoE and ECB meetings"(2011-08-04) There are 2 central banks’ meetings today – the market will be watching Bank of England’s rate decision at 3:00 pm (GMT+4) and the European Central Bank’s one at 3:45 pm (GMT+4). Analysts at Scotia Capital believe that both central banks will keep the borrowing costs unchanged. In their view, there will be nothing worth attention about the BoE comments, while ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet may sound cautious that will put the single currency under negative pressure. The specialists recommend opening shorts on EUR/GBP in the 87.40 area stopping at 88.50 and targeting 84.00. Chart. Daily EUR/GBP Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8248