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<p> </p> <div> </div> <div>"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF"(2011-08-29)</div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>Weekly USD/CHF</div> <div> </div> <div>On the weekly chart the pair USD/CHF continues the advance that it has started at the beginning of August. The greenback is confidently above the Turning line (1) that’s acting as a support and approached the resistance provided by the Standard line (2).</div> <div> </div> <div>At the same time, the general downtrend remains and the pair’s growth still may turn out to be merely a correction. The Ichimoku Cloud remains bearish, though the lines Senkou Span A (3) and B (4) stopped declining.</div> <div> </div> <div> </div><div> </div> <div>Chart. Weekly USD/CHF </div> <div> </div> <div>Daily USD/CHF</div> <div> </div> <div>On the daily chart USD/CHF has tested resistance line of the downtrend from February maximum. The next obstacle on the pair’s way will be the Ichimoku Cloud. </div> <div> </div> <div>The descending Cloud itself (4) has narrowed almost to a point and Senkou Span A seems to get above Senkou Span B, though the distance between the 2 lines is almost zero.</div> <div> </div> <div>The Turning line which went up (1) supports the greenback helping US currency to get higher. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen (2) have formed the “golden cross” (3), though the strength of the signal isn’t very strong as it happened below Kumo. </div> <div> </div> <div>All in all, the bulls have chance to enter the Cloud. It’s necessary to watch the lagging Chinkou Span that has approached the price chart (5).</div> <div> </div> <div> </div><div> </div> <div>Chart. Daily USD/CHF </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8482</div>

<p> </p> <div> </div> <div> "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY"(2011-08-29)</div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>Weekly USD/JPY</div> <div> </div> <div>On the weekly USD/JPY chart the situation didn’t change much. The prices remain in the area of the record minimums, in the narrow range between 76 and 77 yen: on the one hand, the demand for Japanese currency remained high due to the continuing risk aversion and, on the other hand, the risk of further Bank of Japan’s interventions held US currency from falling.</div> <div> </div> <div>US dollar still lacks support, while resistance is provided by the horizontal Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) as well as by the descending Ichimoku Cloud (3). The Turning line (1) and the Standard line (1) still keep the strong “dead cross” in place. </div> <div> </div> <div> </div><div> </div> <div>Chart. Weekly USD/JPY </div> <div> </div> <div>Daily USD/JPY</div> <div> </div> <div>On Friday US dollar went above the Turning line (1) that has turned from support to resistance.</div> <div> </div> <div>All lines of the indicator are horizontal (1, 2, 3 and 4) that means that the market may keep moving sideways.</div> <div> </div> <div>Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) remain in the “dead cross”. The descending Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4) keep holding US currency under pressure.</div> <div> </div> <div> </div><div> </div> <div>Chart. Daily USD/JPY </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8481</div>

"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2011-08-29) Weekly GBP/USD On the weekly chart GBP/USD keeps consolidating above the Standard line (1) which is acting as a support. All lines of the Indicator are horizontal (1, 2, 3 and 4). Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) keep holding the “dead cross” in place (5), though the signal isn’t strong as it was formed above Kumo and only slightly holds the pair from getting higher. The bullish Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4) keeps supporting pound though it has narrowed. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD Last week the prices have made a corrective decline within the general move up. On Wednesday and Thursday the pair went sharply down breaking firstly down through the Turning line (1) and then through the Standard line (2), though on Friday pound managed to push up from the support line and reverse upwards. The new week has begun with the bulls pushing the prices higher: sterling was already successfully brought back above Kijun-sen (2). Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) went horizontally holding the “golden cross in place”. The Preceding lines – Senkou Span A and B also move sideways. The rising Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4) keeps pointing at an uptrend. The pair is likely to consolidate above Kijun (2). Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8480

"Martin Weale on the prospects of further QE in Britain"(2011-08-26) Martin Weale, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee member, doesn’t think that it’s necessary to expand the central bank’s emergency 200 billion pound ($326 billion) bond-purchase program now. However, the official says that his opinion may change if UK economy significantly weakened and inflation falls below the 2% target level. According to Weale, more QE will be necessary if the nation’s banks become more reluctant to lend, though he doesn’t believe such outcome is very likely. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8476

"Jyske Bank: EUR/USD will break the «wedge»"(2011-08-26) Currency strategists at Jyske Bank note that from the beginning of the week EUR/USD remained in range between $1.4350 and $1.5000 ahead of Ben Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech. However, the latest trend on yield spreads, equities and commodities shows that the pair has strong downward potential. That’s why the specialists recommend selling the single currency stopping above $1.4580 and targeting $1.3855. In their view, euro is trading within the “symmetrical wedge” and will break this formation this week. The bank forecasts that if the Fed’s Chairman announces QE3, EUR/USD will break the model to the upside; otherwise there will be a downside breach. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8474

"The background of Bernanke’s speech"(2011-08-26) All eyes today are on Ben Bernanke’s speech that will take place at 6:00 pm (GMT+4). The market is speculating whether the Federal Reserve’s Chairman signals the third round of quantitative easing or not. Professor Lew Spellman, from the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas at Austin takes a glance back examining how the Fed’s monetary policy has been changing since 2008. Spellman points out that the Federal Reserve’s approaches towards QE1 and QE2 were quite different: QE1 was a defensive step aimed to contain GDP collapse, while QE2, on the contrary, was an offensive measure. It’s difficult to assess the results of QE2 and definitely say whether this program helped the recovery or not. The clear thing is, however, that the inflation expectations have increased – the main argument of those who don’t expect QE3. At the same time, it’s also important to realize what the general approach of Bernanke is – as his colleagues say, the central banker is a man of action: he would rather err doing too much, rather than too little, when dealing with the consequences of financial crisis. Bernanke is also known for criticizing Japanese monetary authorities in 1999: in his view, the Bank of Japan didn’t do enough to fight deflation and encourage economic growth, while it should have kept interest rates low until inflation picked up and buy government bonds. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8470

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"Citigroup: world’s economic growth forecast reduced"(2011-08-25) Analysts at Citigroup reduced its global economic growth forecast from 3.4% to 3.1% in 2011 and from 3.7% to 3.2% in 2012. The specialists think that the growth of the developed nations will likely remain sluggish at least until the end of 2012, while the unemployment will keep rising. The situation is aggravated by the abrupt tightening in financial conditions and doubts over scope for monetary and fiscal stimulus needed to help the economies rebound. At the same time, the major economies aren’t, in their view, in the treat of recession. The United States, the euro area, Japan, and the United Kingdom are expected to go through a long period of extremely low interest rates. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8469

"Roubini: comments on US labor market data"(2011-08-25) According to the data released today, initial jobless claims in US rose to 417,000 during the week ended on August 20 from 412,000 a week ago, while the economists were looking forward to the decline to 403,000. Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University famous for predicting 2008 global crisis, says that Non-Farm Payrolls may be in August zero or even negative, while in July the number of jobs in the United States rose by 117,000. The NFP data is releases on Friday, September 2, at 4:30 pm (GMT+4). Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8467

"Wells Fargo: Friday release of US GDP"(2011-08-25) US second quarter GDP is released for the second time on Friday at 4:30 pm (GMT+4). Consensus forecast is that the initial reading will be revised down from of 1.3% to 1.1%. Analysts at Wells Fargo point out that since the last publication of the Q2 growth figures some new data has been released. On the one hand, inventories and net exports were weaker than the government’s initial estimates, so their contribution to GDP will be revised down. On the other hand, the negative effect will likely be offset upward revision in the construction and consumer spending. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8465

"Commerzbank: GBP/USD technical levels"(2011-08-25) British pound didn’t manage to get yesterday above resistance in the $1.6539/47 area and pulled down below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from April to July at $1.6370. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that GBP/USD is poised down to July 21 maximum at $1.6330. If the pair breaks even lower than this level, it will drop to the channel support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $1.6264 and 55-day MA at $1.6224. The specialists claim that if sterling closes today above the 3-month maximum at $1.6617 reached last week, it will once again get chance to climb to $1.6687/1.6745 (200-week MA and April maximum). Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8462#

"Feldstein on weak US dollar"(2011-08-25) Martin Feldstein, well-known economics professor in Harvard University, thinks that weak dollar is a really positive factor for US economy as it’s encouraging the nation’s exports and increase domestic demand for the goods produced in America as the import prices rise. Moreover, another positive moment is that the declining dollar isn’t increasing the national debt. In addition, the greenback’s slump didn’t propel the pace of CPI growth. It’s necessary to note, however, that although Feldstein forecasts further declines in dollar’s rate, he says that he isn’t calling for the currency’s depreciation. The thing is that declining dollar affects personal incomes as the households to pay more for imported items. The economist warns that the Fed is running out of monetary tools to stimulate the US economy. Feldstein says that another round of asset purchases accelerate dollar’s fall. According to the data from Bloomberg, the greenback has lost 6.3% this year being the worst performer among the 10 major currencies. USD contracted by 49% since the record maximum in 1985. American exports have climbed 16% this year through June compared with a year ago. The nation’s annual economic growth slowed down from 3.9% at the beginning of 2010 to 1.3% in the second quarter of 2011. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8461

"UBS: forecast for USD/JPY"(2011-08-25) Analysts at UBS claim that Japanese monetary authorities have to wait until the Federal Reserve’s intentions about the QE become clear before conducting any forex interventions. In their view, if the Fed doesn’t signal additional QE, there’s no need to step in the currency market. Otherwise, it may be necessary to wait until US dollar drops lower where it would be easier to make a big push. The specialists left their 1-month forecast for USD/JPY at 77 yen. Chart. H4 USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8459

"J.P.Morgan recommends avoiding loonie"(2011-08-25) Currency strategists at J.P.Morgan claim that once one is bullish on oil, all he needs is to choose which currencies of oil-producing nations to trade. The specialists warn that it’s necessary to be very cautious with Canadian dollar as its dynamics is strongly correlated with the moves of S&P 500 Index. So does Mexico's peso and Russian ruble. As a result, the best choice for such traders is Norwegian krone. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8457

"Bernanke's won’t signal more QE"(2011-08-25) The majority of experts think that the Federal Reserve’s chairman Ben Bernanke won’t announce the resumption of the quantitative easing program. The main arguments against more QE are increasing inflation and the fact that the US is currently in no recession. It’s widely thought that Bernanke will talk about the options for further stimulus and clarify how much the Fed’s reduction in its outlook this month stems from long-term obstacles to growth. The economists point out that it’s necessary to realize that the current situation is different from what was seen a year ago when QE2 was launched. The core CPI index that doesn’t include volatile food and energy prices added 1.8% during a year through July, while during the 12 months up to July 2010 it gained only 0.9%. The S&P 500 Index is still above 12% of the on the eve of Bernanke’s speech last year. Bernanke will speak tomorrow at 6:00 pm (GMT+4) in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. His speech is entitled “Near- and Long-Term Prospects for the US Economy”. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8453

"Capital Economics: USD/JPY forecast"(2011-08-25) Currency strategists at Capital Economics still think that he greenback will be able to rise to 85.00 versus Japanese yen by the end of 2011. Such forecast is based on the assumption that the Bank of Japan will continue easing its monetary policy and that Japan will become less attractive as a refuge. The specialists underline that if the Federal Reserve doesn’t start new round of QE, while the BOJ continues expanding its asset purchase program that will be sufficient to drive yen down. In addition, investors may start worrying about the economic and fiscal position of Japan itself. Yesterday Moody’s Investors Service reduced Japan’s credit rating by one step to Aa3 – not very surprising event taking into account the fact that Japanese monetary authorities have made no efforts to reduce the nation’s dent. It’s necessary to note, however, that if the Swiss Central Bank will do more easing measures to weaken franc, demand for yen may rise, says Capital Economics. In this case the pair USD/JPY may drop to 70 yen and even lower. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8451

"BBH and UBS regard QE3 as unlikely"(2011-08-25) Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman believe that the although investors’ sentiment has worsened during the last several weeks, the markets will get disappointed as the Fed, in their view, won’t announce the third round of quantitative easing in the current circumstances. According to the specialists, the markets will remain in the risk-off mode and the demand for safe haven currencies will continue being high. Strategists at UBS also don’t expect the QE3. The bank thinks that the Fed will try to reassure investors by outlining the central additional monetary policy tools against the nation’s economic weakness without committing to use them. As a result, that might disappoint dollar bears. The Federal Reserve’s Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak tomorrow at 6:00 pm (GMT+4) in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8449

"Charmer Charts: comments on EUR/USD"(2011-08-23) Technical analysts at Charmer Charts note that if the single currency manages to stay above $1.4330/55 versus the greenback, it will manage to rise to 1.4520. The specialists warn, however, that if the pair EUR/USD slides below 1.4330, it will be poised down to 1.4285. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8444

"Jyske bank recommends buying USD/JPY"(2011-08-23) Currency strategists at Jyske bank advise investors to buy the greenback versus Japanese yen stopping below 75.75 and targeting 79.50 as they think that the pair USD/JPY will move gradually up on the expectations of the Bank of Japan’s interventions. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8442

"NAB: Aussie rose versus the greenback"(2011-08-23) Australian dollar rose today versus its US counterpart from the day’s minimum at $1.0385 to the levels in the $1.0500 area. There are 2 reasons for Aussie’s gains: firstly, the better-than-expected Chinese Manufacturing PMI data that brightened the market’s sentiment and, secondly, comments by the Reserve Bank of Australia's deputy governor, Ric Battellino. The HSBC preliminary PMI went up from 49.3 in July to the 2-month maximum at 49.8 in August. Analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi believe that the figures mean that investors don’t need to be too pessimistic about the growth pace in China. Battellino claimed that inflation remains a big concern for the RBA. The official underlined that the strength of the national currency doesn't warrant intervention by the central bank and in the current situation the attempts to weaken Aussie’s rate would bring no results. Economists at National Australia Bank think that such remarks mean that the central bank will stay on hold on the September 6 meeting, while the fixed-income market has been widely expecting about the possible rate cuts. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8439

"TD Securities, ANZ: outlook for NZD"(2011-08-23) RBNZ The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's quarterly survey shows that the CPI expectations for the year ahead were 2.94% compared with 3.12% in a similar survey held the previous quarter, while inflation expectations for the next 2 years decreased from 3.00% in the previous survey to 2.86%. Strategists at TD Securities note that during the next 2 years inflation expectations are likely to stay higher than actual inflation. In their view, in September the RBNZ can reverse its emergency 50-basis-points rate cut made in March after a massive earthquake in the nation's second largest city. Then the central bank is expected to stay on hold for several months judging the impact of the overseas economic issues on the outlook for exports and commodity prices. Impact of China’s PMI Analysts at ANZ believe that New Zealand’s currency is supported by the positive preliminary HSBC China Manufacturing PMI data. Investors’ risk sentiment has slightly improved after the Asian stocks performed well. The market players will look for the drivers mainly from the global risk picture. On Wednesday, however, one should watch important 2Q retail sales figures. Technical analysis NZD/USD broke above resistance at $0.8320. According to ANZ specialists, support for kiwi lies at $0.8220. If things go bearish and the pair falls below the psychological level of $0.80, it may drop to the 3-month minimum sliding during the next 2 weeks to its 200-day MA at $0.7868. Chart. Daily NZD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8436

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"Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD"(2011-08-22) Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the pair GBP/USD has climbed from the minimums in the 1.6110 area hit at the beginning of August to last week’s maximum at $1.6617. In their view, pound is now going to consolidate at the current levels during the next few days. On the upside, sterling’s attempts will be limited by the resistance at $1.6617. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8434

"Commerzbank: comments on USD/JPY"(2011-08-22) On Friday the greenback renewed the record minimum against Japanese yen by falling to 75.94. However, the pair USD/JPY managed to jump above the previous lows in the 76.25/30 area and return to the former trading range, reports Commerzbank. The bank specialists expect American currency to stay there during the coming days. In their view, the bias will be slightly positive. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8432