JamesThatcher

What does the data mean to the market? The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD. There are 4 lines of data. CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline CPI - Core (Y/Y) CPI - (M/M) CPI - (Y/Y) Historic deviations and their outcome May 12 2021 We saw a massive positive +0.6 deviation on the headline Core CPI M/M with a supporting positive deviation of +0.7 on the Core CPI Y/Y without conflicts on all secondary lines. I got a great 29 pip move in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some nine minutes after the trade, giving plenty of opportunities to choose the best possible exit. The perfect storm, with significant deviation, big initial move and lots of continuing price action, making it virtually impossible not to make money. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/50136/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUwMTM2O3Q9MjAyMS01LTEyJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x April 13 2021 Minor deviations created a nice spike but no continuation. Therefore it provided a minimal opportunity and no trade for me. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/38254/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM4MjU0O3Q9MjAyMS00LTEzJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x March 10 2021 The headline and secondary line Core CPI Y/Y and M/M both deviated by 0.1, giving a nice 15 pip move on USDJPY. That's an excellent move for such a slight deviation, which shows how hot this data is becoming. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/33216/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTMzMjE2O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTEwJTIwMTM6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x I will use forecasts of: CPI - Core (M/M) 0.5 CPI - Core (Y/Y) 3.5 CPI (M/M) 0.5 CPI (Y/Y) 4.7 Today's trade plan The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline. Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.3% to sell USDJPY or 0.7% to buy USDJPY. I'm only looking to trade USDJPY as there's an ECB press conference at the same time. I wouldn't want to trade EURUSD for that fact today. I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any of the other three lines! CPI - Core (Y/Y) CPI - (M/M) CPI - (Y/Y ) If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today. Tradable pairs USDJPY Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

What does the data mean to the market? The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa. Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report. Historic deviations and their outcome June 3 2021 On this occasion, we saw a - 2600 deviation to the downside. It was close to but fell short of a trigger. It was good to see the market react well in the first few minutes after the release; however, it wasn't a trade for me. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/55776/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU1Nzc2O3Q9MjAyMS02LTMlMjAxNTowOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1NMQ May 19 2021 Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me, and the move was poor. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/51750/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUxNzUwO3Q9MjAyMS01LTE5JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x May 12 2021 A small deviation which was also overshadowed by a cybersecurity attack on one of the US east coast's main oil pipeline which halted production. I sat on the sideline for this one and pleased I did. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/50404/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUwNDA0O3Q9MjAyMS01LTEyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x I will use forecasts of: DOE Crude Oil Inventories -2000 DOE Gasoline Inventories +2000 Today's trade plan If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent. Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: - Forecasts and API. 1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2036 (RT) 2) API Actual Crude = -2108 3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = +0698 ( RT) 4) API Actual Gasoline = -1986 Tradable pairs USDBNT USDOIL Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

There's nothing much to report from last week. No trades hit. I also skipped USA ISM Manufacturing PMI. I've been monitoring this report closely and was considering trading it. Still, I don't have the confidence yet, so I will continue to monitor the market's reactions for a bit longer. No deviation on the weekly DOE crude oil inventories or Non-Farm Payrolls. A pretty dull start to the month, but no losses taken, which remains the most important goal to achieve. This week there are just two trades. I'll be putting my money on the following list. 09/06/2021 15:00:00 Canadian Overnight Rate See the history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=CA;nn=BoC Interest Rate Decision 10/06/2021 13:30:00 USA Core CPI m/m See the history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Core CPI (MoM) I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans. Please feel free to ask questions. Good luck this week. James Thatcher

What does the data mean to the market? The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buy on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD. NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings. With UR a lower number is good for the US and vice versa. Whereas AE a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa. All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE. Historic deviations and their outcome May 7 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -734k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with a supporting +0.3% rise from the Unemployment Rate, and This crushed the US dollar across the board. I managed to bank some excellent profits early on the back of this data as the USD pairs continued to slide south. It was a shame that the Average Earnings conflicted largely. A conflict of +0.7 on this line would have upset the move in standard times, but not today! Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/50023/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUwMDIzO3Q9MjAyMS01LTclMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9TTE April 2 2021 A very large deviation to the upside, but accompanied by conflicting Average Earnings, created a whipsaw that we don't like to see. This, therefore, did not hit our triggers and for good reason! Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/35213/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM1MjEzO3Q9MjAyMS00LTIlMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9TTE March 5 2021 +197k positive deviation with no conflicts. The move was great on USDJPY! I don't trade stocks, but for those that do, look how they reacted, which was the opposite of the USD value. Better employment numbers suggest a tightening of monetary policy, which is not good for the stock market! Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/33099/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTMzMDk5O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTUlMjAxMzozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9UzEw I will use forecasts of: Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.2 Change in NonFarm Payrolls 664 Unemployment Rate 5.9 Today's trade plan Today the forecast range is far smaller than last month, so we must be aware of that. If we see 300k deviations in either direction from Non-Farm Payrolls without any conflicts from Unemployment and no significant conflict from Average Earnings, we can expect an excellent move. This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted. Tradable pairs EURUSD USDJPY Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

What does the data mean to the market? The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa. Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also. There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report. Historic deviations and their outcome May 19 2021 Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me, and the move was poor. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/51750/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUxNzUwO3Q9MjAyMS01LTE5JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x May 12 2021 A small deviation which was also overshadowed by a cybersecurity attack on one of the US east coast's main oil pipeline which halted production. I sat on the sideline for this one and pleased I did. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/50404/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUwNDA0O3Q9MjAyMS01LTEyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x May 5 2021 Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/49925/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQ5OTI1O3Q9MjAyMS01LTUlMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9TTE I will use forecasts of: DOE Crude Oil Inventories -4000 DOE Gasoline Inventories +1000 Today's trade plan If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent. Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: - Forecasts and API. 1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2533 (BB) 2) API Actual Crude = -5360 3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1479 (RT) 4) API Actual Gasoline = +2510 Tradable pairs USDBNT USDOIL Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

What does the data mean to the market? ADP is a private company that analysis the employment data from 23 Million working adults. It's a precursor to the highly anticipated US Non-Farm Payrolls which comes out the following Friday. A higher than expected number (more working adults) is good for the US Economy and would create a buy on USD pair, and vice versa a lower than expected number would create a sell in USD pairs. Historic deviations and their outcome May 5 2021 Small -58 deviation only created a 5 pip move on USDJPY, this deviation is too small considering the forecast range. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/49915/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQ5OTE1O3Q9MjAyMS01LTUlMjAxMjoxNTowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9UzU March 31 2021 Only -33 deviation created an 8 pip move, not a strong enough deviation. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/35147/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM1MTQ3O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTMxJTIwMTI6MTU6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPVM1 March 3 2021 10 pip move from this -60 deviation. The move didn't last long! Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/33020/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTMzMDIwO3Q9MjAyMS0zLTMlMjAxMzoxNTowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9UzU I will use forecasts of: ADP Employment Change 650 Today's trade plan If we see a 300+- deviation from the forecast today, then we can hope for a sustained move that we may be able to get some pips from. This deviation will cover all forecasts in the range, so it will be a significant surprise, although unlikely to occur. Tradable pairs USDJPY Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

There's nothing much to report from last week. No trades hit, I also skipped New Zealand Interest rate, as no economist predicted a change, I decided it wasn't worth getting out of bed in the middle of the night. No change to the Hungarian rate and no deviation on the weekly DOE crude oil inventories. Pretty dull but trading capital intact. This week a few more trades are going on. I'll be putting my money on the following list. 01/06/2021 15:00:00 USA ISM Manufacturing PMI See the history here. https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=ISM Manufacturing PMI 03/06/2021 13:15:00 USA ADP Non-Farm Employment Change See the history here. https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 03/06/2021 16:00:00 USA Crude Oil Inventories See the history here. https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories 04/06/2021 13:30:00 USA Non-Farm Employment Change See the history here. https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Nonfarm Payrolls I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans. Please feel free to ask questions. Good luck this week. James Thatcher

What does the data mean to the market? The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa. Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also. There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report. Historic deviations and their outcome May 19 2021 Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me, and the move was poor. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/51750/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUxNzUwO3Q9MjAyMS01LTE5JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x May 12 2021 A small deviation which was also overshadowed by a cybersecurity attack on one of the US east coast's main oil pipeline which halted production. I sat on the sideline for this one and pleased I did. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/50404/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUwNDA0O3Q9MjAyMS01LTEyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x May 5 2021 Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/49925/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQ5OTI1O3Q9MjAyMS01LTUlMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9TTE I will use forecasts of: DOE Crude Oil Inventories -750 DOE Gasoline Inventories -1200 Today's trade plan If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent. Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: - Forecasts and API. 1) DOE Crude Forecast = -1050 2) API Actual Crude = -439 3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0614 4) API Actual Gasoline = -1986 Tradable pairs USDBNT USDOIL Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

What does the data mean to the market? The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Forint), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF. Historic deviations and their outcome June 29 2020 We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market! See the price action here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/19603/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE5NjAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wNi0yMztyPU0x I will use forecasts of: Base Rate Announcement 0.6 Today's trade plan Economists expect a series of rate hikes throughout the rest of 2021, with the first increase of 0.15bps to the interest rate expected to happen in June, followed by 25bps hikes in September and December. Today If we see that expected series of increases brought forward, I will take a sell on USDHUF, so I am looking for a +0.15bps increase or more to sell USDHUF (Meaning I'm buying the HUF) and expect some continued HUF Strengthening. Tradable pairs EURHUF USDHUF Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

There's nothing much to report from last week. No trades hit. I did have a slight amendment to my planned trades, setting up an additional Aussie trade, Wage price index. (WPI) which I've been watching for a while and have seen some reactions recently. I always trade on the conservative side, and the deviation I expected was very unlikely to hit; however, it was worth setting up for and watching. I decided against setting up for the German PMI's. This was once a great report that used to react brilliantly, but after further analysis, I decided the recent results were too inconsistent. I couldn't say for sure that the outcome was predictable. On this occasion, it did work well. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. It's easy to look back and say I wish I had traded that; however, this is how I have saved myself from many losses in the past. It's better to miss a trade that worked than take a risk and lose. You need to be confident of the outcome if you're going to risk your hard-earned cash. Choose your trades carefully. This week I will pick just three trades to put my money on. Here's the list of which ones: - 25/05/2021 13:00 Hungarian Interest Rate See the history here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=HU;nn=Interest Rate Decision 26/05/2021 03:00 New Zealand Official Cash Rate See the history here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=NZ;nn=RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 26/05/2021 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories See the history here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans. Please feel free to ask questions. Good luck this week. James Thatcher There's nothing much to report from last week. No trades hit. I did have a slight amendment to my planned trades, setting up an additional Aussie trade, Wage price index. (WPI) which I've been watching for a while and have seen some reactions recently. I always trade on the conservative side, and the deviation I expected was very unlikely to hit; however, it was worth setting up for and watching. I decided against setting up for the German PMI's. This was once a great report that used to react brilliantly, but after further analysis, I decided the recent results were too inconsistent. I couldn't say for sure that the outcome was predictable. On this occasion, it did work well. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. It's easy to look back and say I wish I had traded that; however, this is how I have saved myself from many losses in the past. It's better to miss a trade that worked than take a risk and lose. You need to be confident of the outcome if you're going to risk your hard-earned cash. Choose your trades carefully. This week I will pick just three trades to put my money on. Here's the list of which ones: - 25/05/2021 13:00 Hungarian Interest Rate See the history here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=HU;nn=Interest Rate Decision 26/05/2021 03:00 New Zealand Official Cash Rate See the history here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=NZ;nn=RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 26/05/2021 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories See the history here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans. Please feel free to ask questions. Good luck this week. James Thatcher

What does the data mean to the market? Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa. We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018. Which is great from a bi monthly report. April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario. March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09 See charts here. https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=16529;t=2020-03-19;r=M1 Historic deviations and their outcome January 21 2020 A surprise -0.5% cut to the rate which gave a solid 700 pip move on USDZAR. Awesome move Its worth noting that the delivery time of this data was 9 mins past the hour. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/0/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTA7dD0yMDIwLTEtMjElMjAxMzowOjAwLjA7cz1aQVJKUFk7cj1TMQ I will use forecasts of: Interest Rate Decision 3.5 Today's trade plan If we see a -/+ 0.25 deviation in either direxction , then we can expect the market to go into shock, I would target a total move of at least 800 pips which should provide multiple opportunities to enter and bank some nice pips. Tradable pairs USDZAR Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

What does the data mean to the market? There are two main lines of data on this release. Employment Change, the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month; more employment is positive for the Aussie dollar and would create a buy of AUD pairs. Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact, a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Aussie Dollar and would create a sell of AUD pairs. Historic deviations and their outcome March 18 2021 We got a minus -0.5% positive deviation on Unemployment Rate with complimentary +58k positive deviation on the Employment Change, which gave a great move for the first minute where I banked a few pips here in the first 30 seconds, a great outcome! Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34188/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MTg4O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTE4JTIwMDozMDowMC4wO3M9R0JQQVVEO3I9UzU February 18 2021 A prime example of why both lines must deviate in the same direction. This time it conflicted between Unemployment Rate and Employment Change which didn't create a move from which I could profit. So I stayed on the sidelines. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28577/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4NTc3O3Q9MjAyMS0yLTE4JTIwMDozMDowMC4wO3M9QVVETlpEO3I9TTE January 21 2021 No deviations on this release, and as you can see from the charts, the market didn’t move! Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/26434/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI2NDM0O3Q9MjAyMS0xLTIxJTIwMDozMDowMC4wO3M9QVVETlpEO3I9TTE I will use forecasts of: Employment Change 20 Unemployment Rate 5.6 Today's trade plan The focus today will be on the Unemployment Rate, this is the key metric that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is watching and could affect future monetary policy decisions (Interest rates). If we get a 0.4% deviation from the forecast Unemployment Rate in either direction with no conflict from Employment Change, then we should see some good moves on AUD pairs. If both lines deviate harmoniously, we should see a sustained move and rack up a fair amount of pips along the way. Tradable pairs AUDUSD EURAUD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

What does the data mean to the market? The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa. Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also. There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report. Historic deviations and their outcome May 12 2021 A small deviation which was also overshadowed by a cybersecurity attack on one of the US east coast's main oil pipeline which halted production. I sat on the sideline for this one and pleased I did. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/50404/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUwNDA0O3Q9MjAyMS01LTEyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x May 5 2021 Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/49925/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQ5OTI1O3Q9MjAyMS01LTUlMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9TTE April 28 2021 Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me; however, I saw a healthy 30 pip move in the direction of the news. Oil was already in an upwards trend which continued pre and post news. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/43410/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQzNDEwO3Q9MjAyMS00LTI4JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x I will use forecasts of: DOE Crude Oil Inventories +1000 DOE Gasoline Inventories -2000 Today's trade plan If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent. Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: - 1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1623 2) API Actual Crude = +620 3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0886 4) API Actual Gasoline = -2800 Tradable pairs USDBNT USDOIL Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

What does the data mean to the market? The Wage Price Index measures the change in the price businesses, and the government pay for labour, excluding bonuses. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected number should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD. Historic deviations and their outcome February 24 2021 A nice +0.3 deviation created a prolonged and significant move in AUD price action. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/29714/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTI5NzE0O3Q9MjAyMS0wMi0yNDtyPU0x I will use forecasts of: WPI (Q/Q) 0.5 WPI (Y/Y) 1.4 Today's trade plan The Wage Price Index measures the change in the price businesses and the government pay for labour, excluding bonuses. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD. I am looking for a 0.3 deviation in either direction from the forecast. If this happens we would expect to see a slow and tradeable move on EURAUD. Tradable pairs EURAUD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

No trade for me on this data as Mexico's central bank voted unanimously to keep the interest rate unchanged at 4%. It was in line with expectation, however, should a surprise change occur, this kind of report would create a tremendous move, and I would be laughing all the way to the bank. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=50924;t=2021-5-13 19:0:00.0;s=USDMXN;r=S1

What does the data mean to the market? Mexico's central bank vote on where to set the countries interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the MXN (Mexican Peso), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the MXN. Historic deviations and their outcome November 12 2020 We saw an increase of +18 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, which created a massive 546 pip move in the first minute following the data release, that's an average of 30 pips per basis point. Astonishing move! Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/24308/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI0MzA4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMS0xMiUyMDE5OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE1YTjtyPU0x August 15 2019 We saw a cut of -25 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, resulting in a move of 831 pips which was a lovely move! Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/9510/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTk1MTA7dD0yMDE5LTgtMTUlMjAxODowOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RNWE47cj1NMQ I will use forecasts of: Interest Rate 4 Today's trade plan I will be looking for a deviation of 0.25 in either direction from the forecast, which should result in another very tradeable move. Tradable pairs USDMXN Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Today we saw a massive positive +0.6 deviation on the headline Core CPI M/M with a supporting positive deviation of +0.7 on the Core CPI Y/Y without conflicts on all secondary lines. I got a great 29 pip move in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some nine minutes after the trade, giving plenty of opportunities to choose the best possible exit. The perfect storm, with significant deviation, big initial move and lots of continuing price action, making it virtually impossible not to make money. It's the second week of the month, two big trades under my belt. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=50136;t=2021-5-12 12:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=S1 See the video at : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-6qY8cAEpg

What does the data mean to the market? The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa. Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also. There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report. Historic deviations and their outcome May 5 2021 Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=49925;t=2021-5-5 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1 April 28 2021 Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me; however, I saw a healthy 30 pip move in the direction of the news. Oil was already in an upwards trend which continued pre and post news. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=43410;t=2021-4-28 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1 April 21 2021 Oil deviation wasn't even half of what I set up for no trade for me, take a look at the chart though, the price moved in the right direction of the news and immediately reversed and went the wrong way. A reminder that this needs a sizeable deviation from the forecast. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=41182;t=2021-4-21 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1 I will use forecasts of: DOE Crude Oil Inventories -2800 DOE Gasoline Inventories +3000 Today's trade plan If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent. Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: - 1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2800 (RT) 2) API Actual Crude = -2500 3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0600 ( RT) 4) API Actual Gasoline = +5600 Tradable pairs USDBNT USDOIL Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

What does the data mean to the market? The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD. There are 4 lines of data. CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline CPI - Core (Y/Y) CPI - (M/M) CPI - (Y/Y) Historic deviations and their outcome April 13 2021 Minor deviations created a nice spike but no continuation. Therefore it provided a minimal opportunity and no trade for me. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=38254;t=2021-4-13 12:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1 March 10 2021 The headline and secondary line Core CPI Y/Y and M/M both deviated by 0.1, giving a nice 15 pip move on USDJPY. That's an excellent move for such a slight deviation, which shows how hot this data is becoming. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=33216;t=2021-3-10 13:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1 February 10 2021 Check out last months 0.2 deviation; bear in mind that I expect the same deviations to create a better reaction today! We can see a small but gradual move over the first one minute with continuation two or three minutes after the initial move. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=28287;t=2021-2-10 13:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1 I will use forecasts of: CPI - Core (M/M) 0.3 CPI - Core (Y/Y) 2.3 CPI (M/M) 0.2 CPI (Y/Y) 3.6 Today's trade plan The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline. Today I want a Deviation of 0.2% or greater in either direction from the forecast of 0.2% to take a trade. So, an actual figure of 0.1% to Sells on USD pairs or 0.5% to Buy USD pairs. I will look to confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any of the other three lines! CPI - Core (Y/Y) CPI - (M/M) CPI - (Y/Y) If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today. Tradable pairs USDJPY Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Last week ended on a massive high. I set up for five trades, none of which triggered until Friday's employment data. I originally scheduled to trade Canadian employment data, as this is hot. This time it came out with the highly anticipated US Non-Farm payrolls data. I decided Canadian data risked being overshadowed by the US data, so I put my money on the US data instead. What a result, we saw a massive shock to the market from NFP, with the US losing 730k more jobs than expected. Price action was fantastic, and I ended my week with a load more pips banked. See the after trade video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcS92xPNjoU Look at the price action on the charts here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/50025/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUwMDI1O3Q9MjAyMS0wNS0wNyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ A great start to the month, putting me in an excellent position to increase my risk appetite. If the markets give us just one surprises, it's all I need to keep my income coming solely from Forex. A good reminder to choose your trades carefully. Don't take a risk unless you are sure the outcome will be successful. Most importantly, be patient and hold your nerve. It can be frustrating when you don't see any trades, but it is better to wait and see a few successful trades instead of a load of trades where most of the outcomes result in your hard-earned cash go down the drain. This week I will pick just three trades to put my money on. Here's the list of which ones: - 12/05/2021 13:30:00 USA's Core CPI m/m 12/05/2021 15:30:00 USA's Crude Oil Inventories 13/05/2021 20:00:00 Mexian's interest Rate I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans. Please feel free to ask questions. Good luck this week. James Thatcher

Today I saw a massive deviation of -734k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with a supporting +0.3% rise from the Unemployment Rate, and This crushed the US dollar across the board. I managed to bank some excellent profits early on the back of this data as the USD pairs continued to slide south. It was a shame that the Average Earnings conflicted largely. A conflict of +0.7 on this line would have upset the move in standard times, but not today! The first week of the month over, one big win under the belt. Happy Friday, and enjoy your weekend! James See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=50023;t=2021-5-7%2012:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=S2 See the video at : https://youtu.be/VcS92xPNjoU

What does the data mean to the market? The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buy on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD. NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings. With UR a lower number is good for the US and vice versa. Whereas AE a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa. All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE. Historic deviations and their outcome April 2 2021 A very large deviation to the upside, but accompanied by conflicting Average Earnings, created a whipsaw that we don't like to see. This, therefore, did not hit our triggers and for good reason! See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=35213;t=2021-4-2 12:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1 March 5 2021 +197k positive deviation with no conflicts. The move was great on USDJPY! I don't trade stocks, but for those that do, look how they reacted, which was the opposite of the USD value. Better employment numbers suggest a tightening of monetary policy, which is not good for the stock market! See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=33099;t=2021-3-5 13:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1 February 5 2021 - 56k negative deviation on headline number but conflicting Unemployment and Average Earnings, However, USDJPY went in the direction of the headline number on this occasion. It wasn't a trade for me! See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=28009;t=2021-2-5 13:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1 I will use forecasts of: Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0 Change in Non-Farm Payrolls 1000 Unemployment Rate 5.8 Today's trade plan Today the forecast range is far larger than last month, so we must be aware of that. If we see 300k deviations in either direction from Non-Farm Payrolls without any conflicts from Unemployment and no significant conflict from Average Earnings, we can expect an excellent move. This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted. Tradable pairs USDJPY Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

As expected, there was no change today. Even though the expectation was for no change, should the unexpected happen, missing it would be devastating as we would likely see some fireworks on the price action. I will continue to set up interest rates for this reason. When this scenario happened before, I was happy I had set up.

Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=49925;t=2021-5-5 14:30:00.0;s=;r=S1

What does the data mean to the market? The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish. Historic deviations and their outcome March 18 2021 +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too! See Chart here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34208/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MjA4O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTE4JTIwMTE6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEVFJZO3I9UzEw December 24 2020 +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. See Chart here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/25738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI1NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMi0yNCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x October 22 2020 -1.75 negative deviation from the forecast, which created a great move! With over 900 pips in the first minute. See Chart here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/23557/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTIzNTU3O3Q9MjAyMC0xMC0yMiUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x I will use forecasts of: Benchmark Rate 19 Today's trade plan 24 economists all forecasts today for the rate to stay at 19% Last time there was an unexpected hike in rates, President Erdogan sacked the central bank governor. Today is the first policy announcement from the new governor Sahap Kavcioglu, who's under pressure to cut rates. So far, he has signalled he won't cut yet but let's see! Realistically the only feasible outcome from today is a possible cut. So if we get a deviation of 1.0 or more, we can expect a continued and prolonged weakening in TRY pairs. Tradable pairs EURTRY USDTRY Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.