JamesThatcher

New Zealand CPI q/q July 15 2021 This week the New Zealand Central Reserve Bank announced an end to quantitative easing. Markets have gone wild on the bank of this announcement now interest rate hike is very likely.

14 July 2021 15:00 GMT Canadian Overnight Rate View the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Q0E7bm49Qm9DJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

Turkey Turkish Rate Decision July 14 2021 What does the data mean to the market? The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish. Historic deviations and their outcome March 18 2021 +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too! Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34208/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MjA4O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTE4JTIwMTE6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEVFJZO3I9UzEw December 24 2020 +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/25738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI1NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMi0yNCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x October 22 2020 -1.75 negative deviation from the forecast, which created a great move! With over 900 pips in the first minute. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/23557/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTIzNTU3O3Q9MjAyMC0xMC0yMiUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x I will use forecasts of: Benchmark Rate 19.00 Today's trade plan All economists forecast today for the rate to stay at 19% The last time there was an unexpected hike in rates, President Erdogan sacked the central bank governor. The new Governor Kavcioglu has said that he will ignore higher inflation. What he says and what he does are two separate things; however, recently, we had a strong inflation number. It's unlikely he would shock the markets and move the rates, but you never know, so I'll be ready just in case. If we get a change of 1.0 in either direction, I'll take a trade. Tradable pairs EURTRY USDTRY Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

United States Core CPI m/m July 13 2021 What does the data mean to the market? The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD. There are 4 lines of data. CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline CPI - Core (Y/Y) CPI - (M/M) CPI - (Y/Y) Historic deviations and their outcome June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs, this was largely due to the fact that The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it will look through positive inflation, and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58020/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4MDIwO3Q9MjAyMS02LTEwJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x May 12 2021 We saw a massive positive +0.6 deviation on the headline Core CPI M/M with a supporting positive deviation of +0.7 on the Core CPI Y/Y without conflicts on all secondary lines. I got a great 29 pip move in the first minute, with the price pushing higher for some nine minutes after the trade, giving plenty of opportunities to choose the best possible exit. With significant deviation, big initial move, and lots of continuing price action, the perfect storm makes it virtually impossible not to make money. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/50136/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUwMTM2O3Q9MjAyMS01LTEyJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x April 13 2021 Minor deviations created a nice spike but no continuation. Therefore it provided a minimal opportunity and no trade for me. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/38254/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM4MjU0O3Q9MjAyMS00LTEzJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x I will use forecasts of: CPI - Core (M/M) 0.4 CPI - Core (Y/Y) 4 CPI (M/M) 0.5 CPI (Y/Y) 4.9 Today's trade plan The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline. Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.4% to trigger a buy or sell on USDJPY. I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines! Secondary Lines - CPI - Core (Y/Y) CPI - (M/M) CPI - (Y/Y If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today. With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.4% Tradable pairs EURUSD USDJPY Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The week ahead 12 July 2021 In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases. 13 July 2021 13:30 GMT US Core CPI m/m View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Core CPI (MoM) 14 July 2021 03:00 GMT New Zealand Official Cash Rate View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=NZ;nn=RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 14 July 2021 12:00 GMT Turkish Rate Decision View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=TR;nn=One-Week Repo Rate 14 July 2021 15:00 GMT Canadian Overnight Rate View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=CA;nn=BoC Interest Rate Decision 14 July 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories 15 July 2021 02:30 GMT Australian Employment Change View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=AU;nn=Employment Change 15 July 2021 23:45 GMT New Zealand CPI q/q View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=NZ;nn=CPI (QoQ)

Canada Employment Change July 9 2021 What does the data mean to the market? Employment Change is the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month. More employment is positive for the Canadian dollar and would create a buy of CAD pairs. Also, at the same time comes the Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact; a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Canadian Dollar. More people in employment is good for the value of the currency as it indicates a stronger economy. Historic deviations and their outcome April 9 2021 Massive deviations across the 3 important lines of Employment Change, Full Time, and Unemployment Rate gave us a nice move, and the opportunity to bank a little profit! Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/38168/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM4MTY4O3Q9MjAyMS00LTklMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNEQ0FEO3I9UzMw March 12 2021 Big deviation which saw a solid move, Strong Employment Change numbers and Unemployment Rate gave a 1.0% deviation from the forecast! In previous times we might have got more pips from these numbers but this still worked great. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/33563/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTMzNTYzO3Q9MjAyMS0zLTEyJTIwMTM6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRENBRDtyPVMzMA I will use forecasts of: Empl Chg - Full Time 0 Employment Change 175 Unemployment Rate 7.8 Today's trade plan It's not often we get to trade this Canadian report without having to worry about US Non-Farm Payrolls at the same time. Today is one of the rare occasions that we can trade it unincumbered. If we see a deviation of 150k in either direction from the forecast on the headline Employment change, and no conflict with the Unemployment Rate, we should get a nice reaction on CAD pairs. I will also watch the breakdown of Full and Part-Time employment numbers ensuring that the Full-Time figure doesn't conflict with the direction of the trade. Tradable pairs EURCAD USDCAD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

United States Crude Oil Inventories July 8 2021 What does the data mean to the market? The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa. Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report. Historic deviations and their outcome June 30 2021 On this occasion, we saw a - 2000 deviation to the downside. However, gasoline conflicted therefore it wasn't a trigger for me. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59518/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5NTE4O3Q9MjAyMS02LTMwJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx June 23 2021 Today we saw a sizable deviation with supporting deviation from Gasoline. I suspect it was overbought. We got some 20 pips immediately after the news before the price returned to the pre-release level. It is worth noting that other information had pushed the oil price to new highs throughout the day. For that reason, I didn't trade it, but it still would have worked out ok if I had set up for it. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59320/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5MzIwO3Q9MjAyMS02LTIzJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx June 9 2021 Today, we saw a conflict with Gasoline. Although we saw a good 30 pip move in the direction of crude Oil initially after the news, this quickly pulled back to pre news price before carrying on with the daily downtrend it was in before the release. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58285/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4Mjg1O3Q9MjAyMS02LTklMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE I will use forecasts of: DOE Crude Oil Inventories -6000 DOE Gasoline Inventories -2250 Today's trade plan If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent. Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: - Forecasts and API. 1) DOE Crude Forecast = -4000 2) API Actual Crude = -8000 3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1750 4) API Actual Gasoline = -2700 Tradable pairs USDBNT USDOIL Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

09th July 2021 13:30 GMT Canadian Employment Change In April, I banked a good few pips from this report, For those that missed it, here's a reminder - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eu-iMvW33q4

The week ahead 05 July 2021 In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following data releases. 08th July 2021 16:00 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories View the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw 09th July 2021 07:00 GMT Norway CPI View the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Tk87bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyMFlURA 09th July 2021 13:30 GMT Canadian Employment Change View the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Q0E7bm49RW1wbG95bWVudCUyMENoYW5nZQ I'm most looking forward to Canadian Employment; In April, I banked a few pips from this. For those that missed it, here's a reminder. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eu-iMvW33q4

Today we saw a +130k deviation from the forecast on the headline, which is sizeable, however not sizeable enough to avoid a conflict from the Unemployment Rate, which today deviated by 0.2 in the opposite direction. We saw USDJPY spike in the direction of the headline before very quickly going in the opposite direction, a reminder of how this report can wipe out your accounts if you're not careful.No profits made, no losses taken. Try next month again. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=59294;t=2021-7-2 12:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=S1

United States Non-Farm Employment Change July 2 2021 What does the data mean to the market? The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buy on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD. NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings. With UR a lower number is good for the US and vice versa. Whereas AE a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa. All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE. Historic deviations and their outcome June 4 2021 -116 deviation with some minor conflicts that were not big enough to overpower the shock of the headline. The move was slow and sustained and would have been easy to make some money from this! Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/57168/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU3MTY4O3Q9MjAyMS02LTQlMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9UzEw May 7 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -734k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with a supporting +0.3% rise from the Unemployment Rate, and This crushed the US dollar across the board. I managed to bank some excellent profits early on the back of this data as the USD pairs continued to slide south. It was a shame that the Average Earnings conflicted largely. A conflict of +0.7 on this line would have upset the move in standard times, but not today! Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/50023/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUwMDIzO3Q9MjAyMS01LTclMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9TTE April 2 2021 A very large deviation to the upside, but accompanied by conflicting Average Earnings, created a whipsaw that we don't like to see. This, therefore, did not hit our triggers and for good reason! Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/35213/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM1MjEzO3Q9MjAyMS00LTIlMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9TTE I will use forecasts of: Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.3 Change in NonFarm Payrolls 720 Unemployment Rate 5.6 US Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) 3.6 Today's trade plan Today the forecast range is smaller than last month, This is good for us as we can tighten the required deviation. I'll be looking for a 200k deviation in either direction from Non-Farm Payrolls without any conflicts from Unemployment and no significant conflict from Average Earnings, We can expect an excellent move. This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted. Tradable pairs EURUSD USDJPY Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Sweden SWE Intrest rate July 1 2021 What does the data mean to the market? The Sveriges Riksbank Executive Board's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the SEK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish. Historic deviations and their outcome December 19 2019 Spike but retrace due to not being a total surprise on this occasion. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/13626/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTEzNjI2O3Q9MjAxOS0xMi0xOSUyMDg6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRFNFSztyPVM1 December 20 2018 Great move on SEK pairs, as we would like to see today. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/2446/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI0NDY7dD0yMDE4LTEyLTIwJTIwODozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNEU0VLO3I9UzMw I will use forecasts of: Interest Rate Decision 0 SE Rates Forecast Q1 0 SE Rates Forecast Q2 0 SE Rates Forecast Q3 0 SE Rates Forecast Q4 0 SE Rates Forecast Q5 0 SE Rates Forecast Q6 0 SE Rates Forecast Q7 0 Today's trade plan Today we don't expect any move from the Interest rate. But we may get some activity from the rate path. Previously the path was flat, with all lines showing 0. However, today, if any of the lines show a positive or negative deviation and don't conflict with each other. Then we can look to take a trade in the direction of the deviation. We also get Quantitative Easing (QE) at the same time. The problem we see with this event is SEK IR path could be up or down. (a cut by the end of 2021 and 10% to a hike by 2024) BUT the QE may counter-act to the longer-term path. So, we may get a positive path, but short term QE increases or vice versa effectively a conflict. If all deviations align, we could see a prolonged move. Tradable pairs EURSEK USDSEK Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

United States Crude Oil Inventories June 30 2021 What does the data mean to the market? The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa. Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report. Historic deviations and their outcome June 23 2021 Today we saw a sizable deviation with supporting deviation from Gasoline. I suspect it was overbought. We got some 20 pips immediately after the news before the price returned to the pre-release level. It is worth noting that other information had pushed the oil price to new highs throughout the day. For that reason, I didn't trade it, but it still would have worked out ok if I had set up for it. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59320/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5MzIwO3Q9MjAyMS02LTIzJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx June 9 2021 Today, we saw a conflict with Gasoline. Although we saw a good 30 pip move in the direction of crude Oil initially after the news, this quickly pulled back to pre news price before carrying on with the daily downtrend it was in before the release. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58285/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4Mjg1O3Q9MjAyMS02LTklMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE June 3 2021 On this occasion, we saw a - 2600 deviation to the downside. It was close to but fell short of a trigger. It was good to see the market react well in the first few minutes after the release; however, it wasn't a trade for me. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/55776/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU1Nzc2O3Q9MjAyMS02LTMlMjAxNTowOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ I will use forecasts of: DOE Crude Oil Inventories -6000 DOE Gasoline Inventories +500 Today's trade plan If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent. Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: - Forecasts and API. 1) DOE Crude Forecast = -3850 2) API Actual Crude = -8200 3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -900 4) API Actual Gasoline = +2400 Therefore I will use -6000 for OIL and +500 for Gasoline Tradable pairs USDBNT USDOIL Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The week ahead. 28 June 2021 In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases. 30 June 2021 13:15 GMT US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 30 June 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories 01 July 2021 08:30 GMT Swedish Interest rate View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=SE;nn=Interest Rate Decision 01 July 2021 15:00 GMT US ISM Manufacturing PMI View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=ISM Manufacturing PMI 02 July 2021 13:30 GMT US Non-Farm Employment Change View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Nonfarm Payrolls I'm most looking forward to NFP; two months ago, I had a great trade out of this. For those that missed it, here's a reminder. https://jamesthatchersnewstradinganalysis.quora.com/United-States-Non-Farm-Employment-Change-May-7-2021 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcS92xPNjoU I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my focus. If new opportunities come up, I'll post any trade plans as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. Please feel free to ask questions. Good luck this week. James Thatcher

United States US Markt Manu PMI June 23 2021 What does the data mean to the market? Manufacturing PMI data is a survey of a wide range of private sector business purchasing managers. The data is an excellent forward-looking indicator to the state of the private sector business. Purchasing managers affect most areas of the economy like employment, production, and general growth. Anything above 50 is considered growth and would be positive for the currency value. Anything below 50 is regarded as a contraction and would be negative for the value of the currency. There are two releases of this report Flash and Final. Flash is reported first form source and therefore has the most impact. We also have services PMI simultaneously, and both need to deviate in the same direction to take a trade. Historic deviations and their outcome May 21 2021 Strong numbers from both Manufacturing and Services created a nice move that didnt suffer much of a retrace. Ideal for my trading style. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/52065/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUyMDY1O3Q9MjAyMS01LTIxJTIwMTM6NDU6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPVMxMA January 22 2021 Huge deviations on both lines did not create a good move, however this wasn't really down to the data failing, It was overshadowed by other news at the time regarding Covid lock downs creating a "Risk Off" environment. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/26497/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI2NDk3O3Q9MjAyMS0xLTIyJTIwMTQ6NDU6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPVM1 I will use forecasts of: Markit Manuf PMI - P 61.5 Markit Svcs PMI - P 70 Today's trade plan Today, if we see both lines deviate together by at least 3.0, we can expect the US Dollar to move slowly and hopefully offer a few minutes of continuation as the data is digested. This won't create a huge spike, but it does hold some profit potential. Tradable pairs USDJPY Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.