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Market Tectonics: Boeing and PDD Holdings Pull Down, Oil Stocks Rally Ahead Tech Giants Slip as Market Awaits Nvidia's Quarterly Report The S&P 500 ended lower on Monday, despite investors' growing expectations for Nvidia's upcoming quarterly report. The AI chipmaker saw its shares fall amid uncertainty surrounding its report, which is due out this week. Meanwhile, investors are keeping a close eye on upcoming inflation data for clues about potential changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Nasdaq Slips, Dow Jones Surges The tech-heavy Nasdaq also slipped, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to stay afloat, helped by giants like Caterpillar and American Express. Despite the overall decline, the Dow ended the day with a small but positive gain, helped by a nearly 1% gain in those stocks. Nvidia Expectations Are Peak Nvidia, the leader in AI chips, is set to report its quarterly results on Wednesday. Investors are pinning their hopes on the company's results, which have risen an impressive 160% year-to-date, accounting for a significant portion of the S&P 500's 18% gain. "Risky Investing in Focus" "Nvidia is in the spotlight this week as a barometer for 2024 risk investing," analyst McMillan said. He stressed that Nvidia's success or failure could have a major impact on the market, given the company's importance in the AI sector. Cautious Expectations Still, there is growing anxiety among investors. Some fear that if Nvidia's guidance falls short of lofty expectations, it could derail the current rally in AI stocks like Microsoft and Alphabet. "There is a concern that Nvidia could disappoint," warns Jake Dollarhide, CEO of Longbow Asset Management. "When the market finds confidence without considering the possibility of negative news, that's when the news comes." Market Under Pressure: PDD Holdings and Tesla Slip Shares in PDD Holdings, the U.S. unit of the Chinese company behind the popular Temu platform, have plunged nearly 29% after the company failed to meet investor expectations for its second-quarter earnings. The significant drop has raised concerns in an already tense market. Tesla hit by new tariffs Tesla also found itself in the spotlight, losing 3.2% of its market value. The reason was the unexpected move by Canadian authorities, who, following the example of the United States and the European Union, announced the introduction of a 100% tariff on the import of Chinese electric cars. This move could seriously affect Tesla's sales in the region and threaten its market position. Stock indices: S&P 500 and Nasdaq in the red, Dow Jones afloat The major stock indices ended the day in different directions. The S&P 500 index fell by 0.32%, stopping at 5,616.84 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq suffered more, losing 0.85% and ending the session at 17,725.77 points. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to stay in positive territory, adding 0.16% to close at 41,240.52. Tech Down, Energy Up Of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500, six ended the day lower. The information technology sector was the most pressured, falling 1.12%. Consumer discretionary was also under pressure, losing 0.81%. However, amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and related oil supply disruptions, the energy sector showed the opposite dynamics, jumping 1.11%. Boeing Slips Amid NASA News Boeing shares fell 0.85% after it became known that NASA has chosen SpaceX as the primary partner to return astronauts to Earth next year, choosing its vehicle over Boeing's Starliner. Positive Signals from the Fed: Wall Street on the Rise Stock markets rose on Friday, with the S&P 500 approaching its all-time highs. This happened amid statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that it was time to lower borrowing costs. Powell emphasized that the reduced risk of inflation and stabilization of labor demand created the conditions for such a decision, which was a positive signal for investors. Bets on a decrease: The market awaits the Fed decision There is some expectation in the money market, with traders estimating the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September at 70%, and a 50 basis point cut at 30%. These forecasts are based on data from the FedWatch tool from CME Group, which closely tracks investor sentiment. Inflation Indicators in Focus Friday's July personal consumption spending data, a key measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve, could be a key factor in its policy outlook. The data could provide insight into the trajectory of the Fed's monetary easing, which could in turn impact market sentiment. Corporate Earnings: Dell, Salesforce, and Other Giants Investors will be focused on earnings this week from companies like Dell, Salesforce, Dollar General, and Gap. These reports could provide insight into the health of the corporate sector and provide additional guidance to the market. Stock Market Balance On the stock market front, the S&P 500 showed a modest 1.1-to-1 advantage over declining stocks. Overall, declining stocks outnumbered advancing stocks in the U.S. by 1.2-to-1, suggesting some volatility among market participants. Volumes remain low Trading activity on US exchanges was below average, with volumes of 9.5 billion shares compared to the average of 11.9 billion shares over the past 20 sessions. This may indicate that investors are taking a wait-and-see approach amid uncertainty about the Fed's future moves. Global markets on hold World stock markets also reacted to expectations of an imminent cut in US interest rates. Despite rising oil prices, caused by tensions in the Middle East, markets closed in the red. European stocks ended the day slightly lower, while London, closed for a public holiday, showed sluggish results. Japan's Nikkei also slid amid a stronger yen, ending trading down almost 0.7%. Indices closed mixed: Dow Jones rises, Nasdaq falls US stock indices ended the trading session with mixed results on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.16% to 41,240.52. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 lost 0.32% to end at 5,616.84 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.85% to end the day at 17,725.77. The MSCI World Index also fell 0.20% to end at 829.64. Market Digests News: Reaction to Powell's Comments Stock markets continue to react to a flurry of news, including recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. "We saw a rally on Friday driven by Powell's comments and some strong durable goods orders data," said Ben MacMillan, principal and chief investment officer at IDX Insights in Florida. However, he added that historically, rate cuts often foreshadow weakness in the stock market because the cuts come for a reason. Oil Futures Rise Amid Market Jitters Brent crude futures ended the day up 3.05% to $81.43 a barrel. U.S. crude also posted significant gains, rising 3.5% to $77.42 a barrel. This reflects market volatility and investor anxiety amid global economic uncertainty. Durable Goods Orders Beat Expectations New data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed a sharp rise in orders for durable goods such as toasters and airplanes. These orders increased 9.9% in July, a significant rebound from a decline in June and beating analysts' forecasts. The surge signals a rebound in demand for U.S. manufactured goods. Powell signals possible easing Jerome Powell stressed at a symposium in Jackson Hole on Friday that the Fed is ready to ease monetary policy, noting the need to prevent further weakness in the labor market. His remarks drew interest from investors expecting lower interest rates to support the economy, but also hinted at possible challenges ahead. European Central Bank remains cautious: Progress in tackling inflation, but risks remain European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane gave a cautiously optimistic assessment of the current situation at a symposium in Jackson Hole. According to him, the ECB has made significant progress in reducing eurozone inflation to its target of 2%, but stressed that it is too early to guarantee a final victory. The comment reflects the central bank's caution about the next steps in monetary policy. Bond yields rise as market braces for rate hike On the back of Lane's comments, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 1.3 basis points to 3.82%. Two-year notes, which are more sensitive to interest rate changes, also rose 2.7 basis points to 3.94%. This suggests that markets are beginning to price in potential policy changes. Market Expectations: Rates Under Closer Attention Fed funds futures are fully pricing in a quarter-point rate hike at the Fed's upcoming Sept. 18 meeting, and are also offering a 39.5% chance of a more dramatic 50 basis point move. Investors are looking for 103 basis points of easing by the end of the year and another 122 basis points in 2025. ECB Continues Rate Cuts The European Central Bank has already started its easing cycle, cutting rates by 25 basis points in July. Two more such cuts are expected this year. Ben McMillan of IDX Insights expects the ECB to cut rates by 75 basis points this year, but he believes the market may adjust its expectations towards a less aggressive rate cut. Key Economic Data on the Horizon Key data on personal consumption and core inflation in the US are due on Friday, along with preliminary inflation data from the EU. These reports could be crucial for determining the direction of monetary policy in September, and most analysts expect them to support the idea of rate cuts. Japanese Yen Strengthens Against Dollar In the forex market, the Japanese yen strengthened to a three-week high against the US dollar, reaching 143.45 yen per dollar. However, the dollar then partially recovered its positions, increasing by 0.14% to 144.56 yen. This increase in the yen indicates increased investor interest in safe assets amid global economic uncertainty. Dollar gains strength: index strengthens amid euro weakness The dollar index, which tracks the exchange rate of the American currency against six major currencies, including the euro and the yen, showed a rise of 0.24%, reaching 100.84. At the same time, the euro weakened by 0.28%, falling to $1.1159. This movement reflects the strengthening of the dollar amid global economic uncertainty and demand for safer assets. Gold continues to rise: investors seek safe havens Gold prices continue to show steady growth, approaching their historical highs. Spot gold rose 0.31% to $2,518.27 an ounce amid increased demand for safe-haven assets. U.S. gold futures also showed positive dynamics, rising 0.28% to $2,515.50 an ounce. The gains highlight investors' desire to protect their capital amid instability in financial markets. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Fed Makes Move: Rate Cut Sparks Sharp Rise in Wall Street Stocks US Stocks Rise Sharply as Fed Chairman's Comments Hint at September Rate Cut US stock markets posted significant gains on Friday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated market expectations for a possible rate cut in September. Powell: Now is the time to cut rates During a highly anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Powell said now is the time to cut the federal funds target. He noted that concerns about rising inflation have eased, allowing the Fed to be more flexible in its monetary policy. "We have not seen a deterioration in the labor market, and we do not want to see one," Powell said in a speech that many analysts took as a clear signal to cut rates at the Fed's upcoming meeting. If the decision is made, it would be the first rate cut in four years. Experts are confident that the Fed is ready for decisive action The market reacted to these statements immediately. Detrick, the director of one of the analytical companies, expressed the opinion that the September meeting will open a series of further rate cuts that could continue until the end of the year. According to him, the Fed has made it clear that it is moving to an active phase of monetary easing. Market soars: growth leaders and historical records After the publication of Powell's statement, all three major US stock indexes experienced a significant rise. Large-cap companies such as Nvidia, Apple and Tesla stood out in particular, with their shares showing the greatest growth. Small-caps and regional banks did not stand aside either, with indices rising by 3.2% and 4.9%, respectively. As Detrick noted, the financial sector has reached historical highs, and this rise confirms that the economy does not have serious threats on the horizon that could weaken the positions of regional banks and financial companies. A week on the rise: markets continue to grow At the end of the week, all three major US indices recorded positive dynamics, supported by the best weekly gain this year, demonstrated last week. Week of anticipation: what data will influence the Fed's decision Ahead of the September meeting of the US Federal Reserve, where the key interest rate decision will be made, analysts are expecting the receipt of a number of important economic data. The key ones will be the revised figures for the gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter from the Commerce Department and the report on personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which contains the PCE price index, the Fed's main indicator of inflation. All S&P 500 sectors are in the green: real estate leads All 11 key sectors of the S&P 500 index ended the trading session in positive territory. The real estate sector stood out in particular, showing the most significant gain, rising by 2.0%. This growth was provided by confident investments and positive market sentiment, which supported the overall upward trend. Workday Surprises Market: Shares Soar on Good News HR software company Workday (WDAY.O) beat market expectations for quarterly revenue. Moreover, the company announced its intention to buy back its own shares for $1 billion. The news caused a real boom in the market: Workday shares jumped by 12.5%, becoming the leader in growth on the Nasdaq exchange. Ross Stores and Intuit: Contrasts in the Retail Sector Discount retailer Ross Stores (ROST.O) also showed positive dynamics, rising by 1.8%. This happened after the company raised its profit forecast for the 2024 fiscal year, which strengthened investor confidence. At the same time, shares of Intuit (INTU.O), known for its Turbo Tax product, fell by 6.8% after publishing a quarterly report that did not meet expectations. The disappointing results caused a sharp decline in investor interest in the company. Markets on the move: Stocks continue to rise On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the number of advancing stocks significantly exceeded the number of declining ones — the ratio was 8.08 to 1. On the Nasdaq, the situation was also in favor of advancing stocks, where there were 3.68 advancing ones for every declining one. This trend confirms investors' confidence in the stability of the economy and the upcoming decisions of the Federal Reserve. S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to break records: the market is on the rise The American stock market is once again showing confident growth, confirming the positive sentiment of investors. The S&P 500 index recorded 81 new 52-week highs, without recording a single new low. At the same time, the Nasdaq Composite noted 149 new highs and 51 new lows, which underlines the high activity in the market. Trading Volumes and Indices: Steady Gains on Wall Street Trading activity on U.S. exchanges showed good results, although the total volume of transactions amounted to 10.57 billion shares, slightly below the average of the last 20 trading days (11.88 billion). Despite this, the key indices continued to rise. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.14%, reaching 41,175 points. The S&P 500 added 1.15% and stopped at 5,634, very close to its all-time high. The Nasdaq Composite showed the biggest gain among the major indices, increasing by 1.47% and reaching 17,877 points. European and Asian Markets: Mixed Results European exchanges also saw gains. The broader STOXX 600 index rose 0.5% to hit its highest in three weeks. The gain also put the index on track to end a third straight week of gains. In Asia, the picture was mixed, with stocks outside Japan down slightly, 0.1%, while Japan's Nikkei rose 0.4%. The gains were supported by positive investor reactions to inflation data and comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who has signaled a willingness to raise interest rates if economic data and inflation are in line with expectations. Global Trends: MSCI Reaches New Levels The impact of recent events on the global economy was reflected in the rise in the MSCI World Index, which rose about 1.1%. Despite the recent turmoil in early August, the index has risen above its all-time peak reached in mid-July, signaling a recovery in global markets and investor confidence in the stability of the global economy. Traders Raise Rates as Rate Cut Expectations Increase Following Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, traders have increased their expectations for a rate cut in September. Fed funds futures now offer a 37% chance of a 50 basis point cut, up from 25% the day before. A total of 106 basis points of rate cuts are expected by year-end. Powell: Fed Policy Future Dependent on Data Jerome Powell stressed in his speech that the Fed's policy direction is clear, but the timing and speed of rate cuts will be determined by economic data and changing risks. These statements were an important signal for the market, prompting investors to revise their forecasts. Treasury Bonds and Currencies: Yields and the Dollar Fall U.S. Treasury yields fell amid growing expectations for a rate cut. The 10-year yield fell 5.9 basis points to 3.803%, while the 2-year yield, which is more sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations, fell 9.7 basis points to 3.9132%. Amid these changes, German bunds remained steady, yielding at 2.226%. There was also significant volatility in currency markets. The US dollar weakened, while sterling strengthened, reaching a more than two-year high. The euro also showed gains, rising to $1.1189, its highest in a year. Japanese yen strengthens despite inflation data The Japanese yen also strengthened, as the dollar fell 1.36% to 144.27 and comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that he was prepared to raise rates if economic conditions were as expected. However, data released in Japan earlier showed that core inflation accelerated for a third month in a row, but the slowdown in demand-driven price growth does not yet indicate the need for an immediate change in interest rate policy. FX Play: Dollar Weaker Amid Rate Cut Expectations The currency market is always based on relative expectations, and the prospect that the Federal Reserve will soon begin cutting rates along with other major global banks has led to a weakening of the dollar, said Uto Shinohara, managing director and chief investment strategist at Mesirow in Chicago. According to him, the market is already pricing in future changes in Fed policy, which reduces the attractiveness of the dollar against other currencies. Oil Market: Sharp Price Jump After Decline Oil prices have jumped sharply by more than 2%, recouping earlier losses associated with a rise in U.S. crude inventories and a decrease in China's oil demand forecasts. This recovery demonstrates the volatility of the oil market, where everything from inventory data to demand expectations can cause significant changes in prices. Gold Is Back on the Rise: The Price of an Ounce Nears a Record Gold continues to strengthen its position, showing a gain of about 1.1%, reaching a price of $2,510 per ounce. This value is close to the record high, which was set just a few days earlier on Tuesday at $2,513 per ounce. Investors continue to invest in gold, seeing it as a safe haven asset in the face of economic uncertainty. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Fed Prepares for Rate Cut: Dollar Strengthens, Stocks Slip US Stocks Under Pressure: What's Going On? US stock markets had a tough Thursday as investors digested new economic data and waited anxiously for further action from the Federal Reserve. Expectations were focused on a possible rate cut, which the regulator could announce as early as Friday. Tech Sector Slips The three major US stock indexes ended the day with significant losses. The technology sector was particularly under pressure, which was reflected in the decline of all indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) lost 0.43%, reaching 40,712 points. The S&P 500 (.SPX) fell 0.89% to 5,570, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) fell 1.67% to end the day at 17,619. Market sentiment: The Fed and the rate outlook Market sentiment was also complicated by data from the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes released on Wednesday. According to the document, most Fed committee members believe that, subject to the expected data, a September interest rate cut will be a likely step. This statement strengthened market expectations for the regulator's future policy. Labor market data and economic activity Thursday also brought fresh statistics on the labor market, which showed an increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. over the past week. This indicates a gradual slowdown in the labor market. At the same time, there is a decrease in business activity, which may indicate an overall slowdown in economic growth. These signs of easing inflation could give the Fed more leeway to focus on job creation. Mortgage Rates and the Housing Market Recovery With the economy slowing, mortgage rates have already begun to decline. This has spurred an unexpectedly strong rebound in existing home sales last month, one of the few positive signs in the current environment. Experts' Forecasts According to Steve Englander, market strategist at Standard Chartered Bank, the Fed minutes show that the Fed is close to achieving its inflation target. At the same time, rising unemployment increases the likelihood that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points in the near future. As such, markets are anxiously awaiting the Fed's policy statements on Friday, which could shape the future of the U.S. economy and financial markets. Expectations of a Victory over Inflation Standard Chartered Bank's Steve Englander noted in his letter that while the Fed is not yet declaring a complete victory over inflation, it is clearly demonstrating confidence that this moment is near. Such statements heighten investor attention to the Federal Reserve's upcoming moves and their potential impact on markets. Global Markets: A Sharp Reversal Global stock markets, which have recently shown impressive gains after volatile swings, are under pressure again. The global stock index (.MIWD00000PUS) fell 0.6%, reflecting growing concerns among investors about the future developments in financial markets. Europe: Growth Against the Trend Despite the general nervousness in global markets, European stocks (.STOXX) managed to show positive dynamics, increasing by 0.35%. The leaders of growth were companies from the retail and healthcare sectors, which took advantage of the favorable market situation. Stocks were also supported by data from the euro zone, which showed an unexpectedly strong level of business activity in August. Asian Markets in the Green Asian stock markets also showed growth. MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares excluding Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.3%. That's a sign of some optimism in the region despite overall volatility in global markets. Oil is recovering Oil prices, which had been falling on concerns about global demand, have started to rise again. U.S. crude and Brent have gained about 1.4% in a day, signaling investors are returning to energy-related assets. Bond yields and the dollar: new trends Eurozone bond yields rose after data showed better-than-expected service sector results in August. However, wage pressures in the region have eased, adding nuance to the overall economic picture. The dollar, which recently hit a 13-month low against the euro, has started to recover. The dollar index rose 0.4%, indicating a return of confidence in the US currency ahead of a key speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell scheduled for Friday. Investors will be closely watching his comments, which could influence the future direction of the dollar. As a result, global markets continue to show mixed dynamics, with expectations of further central bank action and the impact of macroeconomic data on investor sentiment taking center stage. The impact of a US rate cut on the global economy A potential rate cut in the United States could create a more favorable environment for central banks in other countries, giving them more room to maneuver. On Thursday, the Bank of Korea hinted at the possibility of a rate cut in October, while Bank Indonesia said it was prepared to cut rates in the last quarter of this year. However, there is a view in financial markets that the easing process in the US will last longer than in other parts of the world, which could have a significant impact on the global economy. Market Expectations: Rate Outlook Interest rate futures show that investors expect the US Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points next month, with a 50 basis point cut also possible. Forecasts indicate that US rates could fall by about 213 basis points to around 3.2% by the end of 2025. In comparison, Europe is expected to cut rates by a smaller amount, about 157 basis points, which would take the rate to around 2.09%. US Treasury yields recover US Treasury yields have started to recover after hitting two-week lows in the previous trading session, supported by a rise in yields in European bond markets. The yield on the US 10-year note rose 8.6 basis points to 3.862% from 3.776% the day before. The yield on the 2-year note also showed significant gains, rising 9.4 basis points to 4.0161% from 3.922% late Wednesday. FX: Euro and Pound Performance The euro, which had been steadily rising for the month, suddenly fell 0.4%. Meanwhile, the British pound showed interesting dynamics: it hit a fresh 13-month high against the dollar earlier in the day and strengthened against the euro. This happened against the backdrop of the publication of data that confirmed a steady increase in business activity in the UK in the second half of 2024. However, by the end of the day, the pound rate had slightly corrected and amounted to $ 1.3086. Thus, global financial markets continue to react to the actions of central banks, as well as to macroeconomic data, which entails changes in bond yields and exchange rates. Investors' attention remains focused on the upcoming Fed decisions and their possible implications for the global economy. Gold under pressure: what is behind the price drop? Gold prices have sharply declined by more than 1%, which is associated with a stronger dollar and rising yields on US Treasury bonds. These factors put significant pressure on the precious metal, which is traditionally seen as a safe haven for investors in times of economic instability. Central banks at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Against the backdrop of such changes, key representatives of central banks from around the world gathered in Jackson Hole for the annual economic symposium. All eyes are on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday, where his words will determine how quickly and decisively the Fed will begin its easing cycle. Anticipating the Fed's decision: Cautious forecasts According to analyst Ladner, Powell is likely to calm markets by signaling a rate cut in September. However, he said the Fed chairman will be cautious in his comments, not making any firm statements about the size of the cut — 25 or 50 basis points. He is expected to try to set the market up for a more modest 25 basis point cut. Those expectations were reinforced by statements from other key Fed figures. On Thursday, Kansas City Fed President Frank Schmidt, Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker all said they believed a rate cut was imminent and could begin soon. Investors on edge: Volatility index rises The CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX), often used as a gauge of market anxiety, rose sharply to 18, its highest intraday reading in a week. However, the index later eased slightly to settle at 17.56. Tech sector under attack Among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors, tech (.SPLRCT) was the biggest loser, falling 2.1%. At the same time, the real estate sector (.SPLRCR) was among the leaders of growth, which indicates a shift in investor interests amid the current market uncertainty. Snowflake: Optimistic forecast and unexpected decline Amid general instability, it is worth noting individual fluctuations in company shares. For example, Snowflake (SNOW.N) improved its forecast for annual revenue from products, but this did not help to keep the company's shares from falling. Despite the positive forecast, the shares of the cloud data company fell by 14.7%, as the margin forecast remained unchanged, which disappointed investors. Thus, amid expectations of Fed decisions and general market turbulence, investors continue to look for stable positions, which is reflected in both the movement of large indices and individual stocks. Zoom confidently gains heights Shares of Zoom Video Communications (ZM.O) made an impressive leap, rising by 13.0%. The sharp rise came as the company improved its full-year revenue forecast. At a time when many companies are struggling, Zoom is demonstrating its ability to not only hold its ground, but to grow, which has caught the attention of investors. Advance Auto Parts Slide: Negative Outlook On the back of Zoom's success, Advance Auto Parts (AAP.N) shares have seen a sharp decline, losing 17.5% of their value. This happened after the company revised its full-year profit forecast downwards. This move disappointed investors, which led to such a significant decline in quotes. Market in the Red: Stock Market Sentiment The mood on the stock markets was clearly not optimistic on Thursday. Declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) 2.16 to 1. The same was true on the Nasdaq, where for every one advancing, 2.25 fell. New Highs and Lows amid Volatility The S&P 500 posted 58 new 52-week highs on the day, despite the overall trend being down. At the same time, there was only one new low. The Nasdaq Composite also saw activity, with 83 new highs, but also a high number of new lows, at 68. Trading Activity amid Declining Volume Trading activity on U.S. exchanges declined, with total trading volume at 9.79 billion shares, below the 20-day average of 11.89 billion shares. The decrease in volume may indicate investor uncertainty and the expectation of further signals from the market. Thus, the current market fluctuations continue to demonstrate complex sentiments among investors, where fears and caution dominate against the backdrop of individual successful companies. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Holding their breath: Wall Street awaits Fed decision, other big global events Investor expectations: Stocks frozen, await Fed decision Global stock markets paused their gains on Wednesday, stabilizing after a long rally that took them to recent record highs. Investors are awaiting confirmation that the US Federal Reserve will decide to cut interest rates, in line with their expectations. The minutes of the Fed's July 30-31 meeting show that officials are leaning toward lowering rates at the upcoming September meeting. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to reiterate the central bank's commitment to easing policy at its annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday. The move comes after the bank successfully quelled the worst surge in inflation in 40 years. Oil and Gold: Contrasting Trends Oil prices fell while gold held its high, hovering near the record highs it hit on Tuesday, as the dollar weakened amid expectations of interest rate cuts. Wall Street and Global Markets: Steady Gains On Wall Street, the indices showed modest gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) up 0.13% to 40,889, the S&P 500 (.SPX) up 0.42% to 5,620, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) up 0.57% to 17,918. The MSCI All Country (.MIWD00000PUS) also showed positive dynamics, adding 0.4% and almost reaching its July record. Since the beginning of the year, it has gained an impressive 13.9%. European Markets: New Peak on the Horizon The STOXX (.STOXX) index of 600 leading companies in Europe rose 0.3%, moving closer to its all-time high set on June 7. Market Volatility: Investor Sentiment Under Pressure World stocks have been volatile this month, as investors worried about U.S. employment data, which has heightened fears of a possible recession in the world's largest economy. However, the pessimism has since given way to hopes for a soft landing, which investors see as an opportunity thanks to the expected cut in U.S. interest rates, which could begin as early as September. Labor Market: Key Factor for the Fed The U.S. Labor Department reported on Wednesday that job creation was significantly lower than initially expected for the period through March. The news has heightened the Federal Reserve's concerns about the health of the labor market, which in turn affects monetary policy going forward. "The labor report confirms the futures market's assessment that the Fed is likely to cut rates at its September 18 meeting," Quincy Crosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, said in an email. Futures and Bonds: Rate Cut Expectations Futures markets have already priced in the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut next month, as well as a one-in-three chance of a 50 basis point cut. A 100 basis point cut is expected this year, with another 100 basis points expected next year. U.S. Treasury yields also fell. The benchmark 10-year note shed 2.3 basis points to 3.795%, down from 3.818% late last night. The yield on two-year bonds, which is more sensitive to interest rate expectations, fell by 6.9 basis points, reaching 3.9305% from 4% late Tuesday. Waiting for a decision: markets frozen Thus, global markets continue to wait. Investors are focused on the upcoming Fed meeting in September, where the further course of monetary policy will be decided. Any new data on the state of the US economy could significantly affect this course, and therefore, global financial markets. No Recession Scenario: The Fed's New Approach Global markets find themselves in a unique situation where the prospect of a significant rate cut is not accompanied by recession risks. This is in stark contrast to five of the last seven rate-cutting cycles, when lower borrowing costs were accompanied by an economic slowdown, according to Ross Yarrow, managing director of U.S. equities at investment bank Baird. "If we can get to a point where the Fed cuts rates, inflation comes down, and employment stays high, that would be a very positive outcome," Yarrow said. He added that such an environment could create a positive outlook for equity markets to continue to rally. Asian Markets: Mixed Performance Asian markets were less optimistic. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Ex-Japan Index (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.3%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index (.HSI) fell 0.7%, with JD.com (9618.HK) contributing significantly to the decline, falling 8.7% after Walmart (WMT.N) decided to sell its large stake in the company. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) also fell 0.3%, pausing its recovery at 38,000, which had become resistance after the August collapse. FX and Gold: Dollar Under Pressure The weaker dollar helped gold, which neared record highs, while strengthening the yen, which has returned to 145.135 per dollar from a multi-year low hit last month. The euro also strengthened, gaining about 3% in August to reach $1.115, its highest since December last year. Gold and Oil: Mixed Movements Gold prices continued to hover around $2,510 per ounce, remaining close to the record highs reached on Tuesday. At the same time, oil prices went down again: US crude oil fell by 1.69% to $71.93 per barrel, while Brent fell by 1.49% to $76.05 per barrel. Looking Ahead: What's Next? Overall, markets remain awaiting further actions by the Fed and their impact on the global economy. Whether the US economy can avoid a recession amid rate cuts remains an open question, but current investor sentiment is increasingly leaning towards an optimistic scenario. Retail Sector on the Rise: JD Sports' Success The retail sector showed strong growth, leading the leaderboard amid a significant increase in JD Sports (JD.L) shares. The UK sportswear retailer rose 5.3% after reporting a strong improvement in core sales in the second quarter, spurring investors. Energy under pressure as oil prices fall further The energy sector was among the laggards, falling 0.6% as oil prices fell for a fifth straight session. Investors are concerned about a possible slowdown in global oil demand, putting pressure on companies in the sector. Key data ahead: PMIs and consumer confidence Markets are focused on the upcoming flash purchasing managers' index (PMI) data for France, Germany, the UK and the eurozone, due between 07:15 and 08:30 GMT. These figures will help to gauge the current state of the region's economies. Eurozone consumer confidence data is also due out today at 14:00 GMT. Later in the day, US PMI and initial jobless claims data will be released, which could have a significant impact on the market. Key Market Moves: Aegon and Deutsche Bank Among individual stocks, Aegon (AEGN.AS) was a notable loser, falling 4% after the Dutch insurer reported a decline in its key capital generation figure for the first half of the year. This caused concern among investors and led to a sell-off. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) shares rose 2.5% after the bank reached a settlement with more than half of the plaintiffs who had accused it of underpayment. The progress was welcomed by the market, which was reflected in the bank's share price rising. Looking Ahead: Key Data Expectations Investors continue to closely monitor upcoming economic data, which could be key indicators for future market developments. Particular attention will be paid to the PMI and consumer confidence indicators, which will provide an indication of the current state of the European economy and may influence sentiment in other regions. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Stocks Slow as Investors Brace for Big Fed, U.S. Labor News Asian Stocks Fall on U.S. Data Expectations Asian stocks fell on Wednesday, halting a strong rally in global stocks as they waited for important U.S. economic data. Bond yields and the dollar fell on expectations of interest rate cuts ahead of policymakers. S&P 500 Ends Gain The S&P 500 (.SPX), which had been on track for eight straight sessions of gains, was down 0.2% overnight. MSCI's broad index of Asia-Pacific shares excluding Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) also lost 0.5%. Meanwhile, U.S. and European index futures showed modest gains, up around 0.2%. Hang Seng and JD.com under pressure Hong Kong's Hang Seng (.HSI) fell 1%, helped by a sharp 10% drop in JD.com (9618.HK) shares after its largest shareholder, Walmart, decided to sell a significant portion of its stake. Japan's Nikkei struggles with resistance Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 1% at the open, hitting resistance at 38,000 after recently rebounding from its early August decline. However, the index had partially recovered by midday, paring its losses to 0.3%. Experts predict possible changes The recent sell-off in stocks has bottomed out, with recession fears replaced by hopes for a softer slowdown, according to Bank of Singapore analyst Mo Siong Sim. However, he notes that markets need confirmation before they can stabilize, and that confirmation should come from new data. US data on the horizon Investors will continue to focus on preliminary US employment data due out later on Wednesday. The data is expected to be revised downwards, which could put pressure on interest rates. The Federal Reserve minutes are also expected to be released, which analysts believe will confirm the regulator's appetite for easing. Index expectations and their impact on global markets Investors will be closely watching the publication of both US and global purchasing managers' indices on Thursday. These data promise to have a significant impact on markets, shaping future expectations for economic growth and monetary policy. Dollar Loses Ground as Gold and Yen Rise The dollar's weakness has served as a catalyst for a sharp rise in gold prices, which have reached new records. Against this backdrop, the Japanese yen has strengthened to 145.67 per dollar, up 1.6% on the week and an 11% rebound from its 38-year low last month. The Euro and Rate Cut Prospects The euro has been on a strong run, up nearly 3% since early August. At $1.1132 in Asian trading, the euro hit its highest since December last year, indicating an attempt to break key chart levels. Interest rate futures point to a strong chance of the Federal Reserve cutting its benchmark rate by 25 basis points next month, with a one-third chance of a 50 basis point cut. Investors are pricing in a rate cut of nearly 100 basis points this year and expecting a similar cut next year. Dollar under pressure: further weakness likely Rabobank strategist Jane Foley says the dollar's recent weakness is likely due to rising expectations for easing from the Federal Reserve. However, she warns that these hopes may be overdone, with the risk of a short-term decline in EUR/USD below $1.10. A look ahead to upcoming speeches and regional currencies Investors are also looking ahead to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, which could provide further clues as to where the Fed is headed. Meanwhile, the Australian and New Zealand dollars have shown solid gains, reaching $0.6747 and $0.6157 respectively, reflecting their positive momentum amid global economic developments. US Bonds and Commodities: Strong Positions Equity markets continued to be supported by bonds, with the US 10-year Treasury yield falling to 3.81% and the two-year yield holding steady at 3.99%. These figures suggest cautious optimism among investors awaiting economic data. Commodities Resilience and China's Response Commodities prices stabilised. Brent crude futures settled at $77.12 a barrel, indicating a recovery from recent wobbles. Iron ore in the Dalian market also hit a local bottom, helped by reports that China plans to allow local governments to buy unsold homes. The move is aimed at supporting the housing market, an important signal for the global steel market, where China plays a key role. Impact of Chinese construction on global markets Steel markets are sensitive to any developments in the construction industry in China, the world's largest consumer of the metal. Following the news from China, shares of major miners such as BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals were stable in Australian markets, reflecting investor confidence in a recovery in demand. Gold holds close to records Gold prices remain close to the record highs set on Tuesday, hovering around $2,516 an ounce. The precious metal remains an attractive asset for investors amid global economic uncertainty. Asia's central banks: decisions awaited In emerging markets, attention is focused on central bank meetings in Thailand and Indonesia on Wednesday. Although neither country is expected to cut rates before the US Federal Reserve, their decisions could have an impact on regional markets. Chinese Stocks Under Pressure After Walmart News The yen continued to strengthen, reaching 145.5 per dollar, which, along with weak sentiment in Japanese stock markets, put pressure on stocks. At the same time, news that Walmart plans to sell its stake in JD.com sent shares of the Chinese online retailer sharply lower in Hong Kong, despite the company's recent upbeat earnings report. Obama Back on the Frontlines: Endorsing Kamala Harris Former US President Barack Obama returned to the national political stage on Tuesday evening to throw his support behind Kamala Harris in her tight presidential race against Republican Donald Trump. The move underscores the importance of the election and Obama's determination to ensure a Democratic victory. Awaiting Data: The Importance of Fed Minutes Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of Federal Reserve minutes and revisions to US labor market data on Wednesday. According to Goldman Sachs, the number of revised payrolls could fall by 600,000 to 1 million, which could create a false impression of weakness in the labor market. This data will be key to further analysis of the economic situation in the country. Labor market under close scrutiny Of particular importance is the upcoming US labor report, which will be released on September 6. It will be closely watched, since the situation in the labor market is now the main focus of economic policy, against the backdrop of falling inflation. It is this report that will be decisive in determining the further actions of the Fed and their impact on financial markets. Rate markets are pricing in a decline: the dollar is under pressure Interest rate futures are fully priced in the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut in September, with about a 30% chance of a deeper cut of 50 basis points. These expectations are putting pressure on the dollar, which is showing weakness in almost all areas. Gold and the Euro: New Horizons Gold continues to set records, surpassing $2,500 an ounce, reflecting its status as a safe haven in uncertain times. Meanwhile, the euro has reached $1.11, unfamiliar territory for the currency and a sign of new trends in the currency markets. Risks on the Horizon: The Importance of Powell's Speech However, not all analysts share the market's optimism. There is a risk that the labor market data could be stronger than expected, or that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking in Jackson Hole on Friday, will not show enough flexibility in his rhetoric. These factors could significantly change the mood in financial markets and force investors to revise their expectations. Fear and Greed Index: From Panic to Stability The CNN Fear and Greed Index, which measures sentiment in the stock, options and credit markets, has risen from extreme anxiety to neutral in a short period of time. This recovery suggests that investors are slowly starting to calm down after the recent turmoil. Investors on Hold: Confirmation of the Favorable Outlook Despite the improved sentiment, market participants remain cautious and await new economic data that may confirm or refute current forecasts. Investors are seeking clarity before diving back into risky assets, preferring to first make sure that positive trends are sustainable. This period of waiting and analysis highlights not only the importance of data, but also the instability that still hangs over the markets, requiring caution and sober calculations from financial players. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Gold breaks records The price of gold continued its growth on Tuesday, reaching a new record amid expectations of monetary easing by the world's leading central banks and increased demand for safe assets amid geopolitical tensions. Gold futures on the Comex exchange rose 0.3% in August, reaching $2,563.6 per ounce. Since the beginning of the year, the price of precious metals has increased by 21.5%. Signals of a decrease in inflation in the United States, along with a deterioration in the labor market, have increased expectations that the US Federal Reserve will soon begin to lower interest rates. Currently, the market forecasts a rate cut of 100 basis points by the end of the year. Three meetings of the American Central Bank are scheduled in 2024, and it is likely that at one of them the rate will be increased by 50 basis points instead of the standard 25 bp. The slowdown in inflation is also observed in other large economies. For example, the central bank of Sweden on Tuesday lowered its key interest rate by 25 bps to 3.5% per annum. The regulator noted that the growth rate of consumer prices continues to slow down, approaching the target 2%. The Central Bank's management plans to cut the rate two or three times by the end of the year if the current inflation dynamics persists. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on August 19, 2024 The EUR/USD pair ended the past week with a relatively rapid rise. This movement again indicates strong enthusiasm among traders for long positions in the euro. In the 4-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the upper range of 50/70, which suggests an increase in long positions. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines point upwards. Expectations and Prospects Stabilization of the price above 1.1050 is necessary to strengthen the current uptrend. In this scenario, moving to the local high of 2023 is possible. Otherwise, the movement within the 1.0950/1.1050 range will likely continue for some time. The complex indicator analysis suggests an uptrend cycle in the short-term and intraday periods. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Growth on One Side, Challenges on the Other: Unexpected Financial News from the U.S. and Asia Sustainable Growth: Wall Street Ends Thursday with Confident Gains Wall Street's major indexes ended Thursday's trading session with significant gains, with the Nasdaq jumping more than 2%. The gains were helped by fresh retail sales data for July, which confirmed the stability of consumer spending, dispelling fears of a possible recession in the U.S. economy. Consumer Confidence Nine of the S&P 500's 11 key sectors advanced, led by consumer staples and information technology. July's retail sales report showed a 1.0% increase, up sharply from a downwardly revised 0.2% fall in June. The data helped ease concerns about a potential economic slowdown caused by last week's rise in unemployment. Retail Giants on the Rise Walmart, one of the world's largest retailers, surged 6.58% after raising its profit forecast for the second time this year, as U.S. consumers flocked to its stores in search of affordable essentials. Rivals were also on the rise, with Target up 4.35% and Costco up 1.69%. Unexpected Unemployment Decline Separate data also helped boost investor sentiment. The number of new U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week, adding to the market's strength. "We are seeing the wall of worry begin to crumble as sentiment improves and fundamentals are driving risk appetite," said Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. "Retail sales data beat expectations and inflation is in the low range, creating a favorable environment for equity prices to rise." Treasury Bonds and Rates: Market Reacts to New Data U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply after the release of new economic data. In particular, two-year and 10-year bonds showed gains, which is due to a change in trader sentiment. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points has now increased to 76.5%, compared to 65% before the release of the data. Investors Await Powell Speech Market participants are closely watching the latest economic data this week before Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivers a key speech next week in Jackson Hole. That event could have a significant impact on the markets as investors await cues on the future of monetary policy. Stock Markets Continue to Rise The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 554.67 points, or 1.39%, to close at 40,563.06. The S&P 500 gained 88.01 points, or 1.61%, to close at 5,543.22. The top gainer, the Nasdaq Composite, rose 2.34%, up 401.90 points to close at 17,594.50. Individual Stocks Score Cisco Systems posted a stunning 6.8% gain after announcing plans to grow first-quarter revenue above expectations and cut 7% of its global workforce. Nike shares rose 5.07% after billionaire investor William Ackman announced a new stake, signaling renewed interest in the sportswear maker. Ulta Beauty soared 11.17% after news that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway investment fund had acquired a significant stake in the beauty retailer. Market Balance Advancing stocks outnumbered declining stocks by a wide margin 3.22-to-1 on the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday. The same pattern was seen on the Nasdaq, where gainers outnumbered decliners by a ratio of 2.66-to-1. New Record: S&P 500 and Nasdaq Riding a Wave The S&P 500 posted 30 new 52-week highs and only one new low, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 76 new highs and 104 new lows. The numbers underscore a mixed market where companies continue to set new records despite continued volatility. Global Trends: Europe and Asia in Focus The situation in global markets is evolving rapidly. Past market turmoil caused by fears of a global economic downturn is quickly fading into the background. Recent data from the US has given investors confidence that the US economy is avoiding a deep crisis. This positive trend has helped calm markets and reduce fears of a possible recession. Rates and forecasts: investors are lowering expectations Investors are revising their expectations for further actions by the US Federal Reserve. Previously, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points was estimated at 55%, but now the market is showing only a 25% chance of such a significant reduction. This is due to the fact that the recent inflation report for July has allayed fears of drastic action by the Fed. Japan's Nikkei and Yen Slip: Asian Markets Rise In Asia, Japan's Nikkei Index stood out, jumping 3% on Friday to post its best weekly performance since April 2020. The index is on track to reclaim its record high despite recent wobbles. The yen, on the other hand, remains under pressure, having fallen nearly 5% from a seven-month high last week. It was last trading around 149 to the dollar. Despite the currency's apparent cheapness, volatility is forcing investors to rethink their yen exposure. Expectations vs. Reality: What's Next? With market sentiment shifting, investors remain cautious, although optimism about the US economy is keeping the tone positive. How the Fed will respond to the data remains a key question, and markets will be watching closely, especially as global economic uncertainty continues. Futures and retail sales: what awaits European and US markets Stock futures point to a positive opening in Europe and the US on Friday. Amid these expectations, investors are focused on UK retail sales data, which will be released in the morning hours in London. Forecasts suggest buyers will return to the market after an unexpected decline in June. The Bank of England and rates: expectations for a cut Economists and analysts continue to bet that the Bank of England may cut interest rates further this year. Such a decision is justified by easing inflation pressures and a deterioration in the economic outlook in the UK for the rest of 2024. Lower rates could support the economy, which faces new challenges. Australia takes a different path: a bet on stability While many central banks around the world are looking to ease monetary policy, Australia is going its own way. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michelle Bullock stressed on Friday that it is too early to talk about rate cuts. According to her, the country's core inflation remains too high and the bank continues to closely monitor potential risks to price increases. Global Markets: Focus on Central Banks The situation in global markets remains dynamic, with investors closely monitoring the actions of central banks. While the UK may be preparing for further rate cuts, Australia, by contrast, is maintaining a cautious approach. These divergent strategies reflect the different economic realities that countries face, and their possible impact on global financial markets will be in focus in the coming months. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Growth on One Side, Challenges on the Other: Unexpected Financial News from the U.S. and Asia Sustainable Growth: Wall Street Ends Thursday with Confident Gains Wall Street's major indexes ended Thursday's trading session with significant gains, with the Nasdaq jumping more than 2%. The gains were helped by fresh retail sales data for July, which confirmed the stability of consumer spending, dispelling fears of a possible recession in the U.S. economy. Consumer Confidence Nine of the S&P 500's 11 key sectors advanced, led by consumer staples and information technology. July's retail sales report showed a 1.0% increase, up sharply from a downwardly revised 0.2% fall in June. The data helped ease concerns about a potential economic slowdown caused by last week's rise in unemployment. Retail Giants on the Rise Walmart, one of the world's largest retailers, surged 6.58% after raising its profit forecast for the second time this year, as U.S. consumers flocked to its stores in search of affordable essentials. Rivals were also on the rise, with Target up 4.35% and Costco up 1.69%. Unexpected Unemployment Decline Separate data also helped boost investor sentiment. The number of new U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week, adding to the market's strength. "We are seeing the wall of worry begin to crumble as sentiment improves and fundamentals are driving risk appetite," said Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. "Retail sales data beat expectations and inflation is in the low range, creating a favorable environment for equity prices to rise." Treasury Bonds and Rates: Market Reacts to New Data U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply after the release of new economic data. In particular, two-year and 10-year bonds showed gains, which is due to a change in trader sentiment. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points has now increased to 76.5%, compared to 65% before the release of the data. Investors Await Powell Speech Market participants are closely watching the latest economic data this week before Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivers a key speech next week in Jackson Hole. That event could have a significant impact on the markets as investors await cues on the future of monetary policy. Stock Markets Continue to Rise The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 554.67 points, or 1.39%, to close at 40,563.06. The S&P 500 gained 88.01 points, or 1.61%, to close at 5,543.22. The top gainer, the Nasdaq Composite, rose 2.34%, up 401.90 points to close at 17,594.50. Individual Stocks Score Cisco Systems posted a stunning 6.8% gain after announcing plans to grow first-quarter revenue above expectations and cut 7% of its global workforce. Nike shares rose 5.07% after billionaire investor William Ackman announced a new stake, signaling renewed interest in the sportswear maker. Ulta Beauty soared 11.17% after news that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway investment fund had acquired a significant stake in the beauty retailer. Market Balance Advancing stocks outnumbered declining stocks by a wide margin 3.22-to-1 on the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday. The same pattern was seen on the Nasdaq, where gainers outnumbered decliners by a ratio of 2.66-to-1. New Record: S&P 500 and Nasdaq Riding a Wave The S&P 500 posted 30 new 52-week highs and only one new low, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 76 new highs and 104 new lows. The numbers underscore a mixed market where companies continue to set new records despite continued volatility. Global Trends: Europe and Asia in Focus The situation in global markets is evolving rapidly. Past market turmoil caused by fears of a global economic downturn is quickly fading into the background. Recent data from the US has given investors confidence that the US economy is avoiding a deep crisis. This positive trend has helped calm markets and reduce fears of a possible recession. Rates and forecasts: investors are lowering expectations Investors are revising their expectations for further actions by the US Federal Reserve. Previously, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points was estimated at 55%, but now the market is showing only a 25% chance of such a significant reduction. This is due to the fact that the recent inflation report for July has allayed fears of drastic action by the Fed. Japan's Nikkei and Yen Slip: Asian Markets Rise In Asia, Japan's Nikkei Index stood out, jumping 3% on Friday to post its best weekly performance since April 2020. The index is on track to reclaim its record high despite recent wobbles. The yen, on the other hand, remains under pressure, having fallen nearly 5% from a seven-month high last week. It was last trading around 149 to the dollar. Despite the currency's apparent cheapness, volatility is forcing investors to rethink their yen exposure. Expectations vs. Reality: What's Next? With market sentiment shifting, investors remain cautious, although optimism about the US economy is keeping the tone positive. How the Fed will respond to the data remains a key question, and markets will be watching closely, especially as global economic uncertainty continues. Futures and retail sales: what awaits European and US markets Stock futures point to a positive opening in Europe and the US on Friday. Amid these expectations, investors are focused on UK retail sales data, which will be released in the morning hours in London. Forecasts suggest buyers will return to the market after an unexpected decline in June. The Bank of England and rates: expectations for a cut Economists and analysts continue to bet that the Bank of England may cut interest rates further this year. Such a decision is justified by easing inflation pressures and a deterioration in the economic outlook in the UK for the rest of 2024. Lower rates could support the economy, which faces new challenges. Australia takes a different path: a bet on stability While many central banks around the world are looking to ease monetary policy, Australia is going its own way. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michelle Bullock stressed on Friday that it is too early to talk about rate cuts. According to her, the country's core inflation remains too high and the bank continues to closely monitor potential risks to price increases. Global Markets: Focus on Central Banks The situation in global markets remains dynamic, with investors closely monitoring the actions of central banks. While the UK may be preparing for further rate cuts, Australia, by contrast, is maintaining a cautious approach. These divergent strategies reflect the different economic realities that countries face, and their possible impact on global financial markets will be in focus in the coming months. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

EUR/USD. U.S. inflation slows to 2.9%. What does the pivotal report indicate? The EUR/USD pair hit an 8-month price high on Wednesday, marking a level of 1.1048. For the second consecutive day, traders are trying to consolidate within the 1.10 figure, reacting to the inflation reports released in the U.S. On Tuesday, we received the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index on Wednesday. Both reports were unfavorable for the U.S. currency, leading the U.S. Dollar Index to test the 101 figure again. To the disappointment of dollar bulls, inflation did not serve as a lifeline for the greenback. On the contrary, inflation reports have become an anchor for the dollar, both "in the moment" and (at least) in the medium term. So, the overall CPI on an annual basis fell into the "red zone," coming in at 2.9% against a forecast of 3.0%. This is the slowest growth rate since March 2021. The index has decreased for the fourth consecutive month, indicating a clear trend. The core index, excluding food and energy prices, slowed to 3.2%. There is also a noticeable trend, as the indicator has been falling for four months. The report's structure reveals that new cars have become 1% cheaper (down 0.9% in June), while used cars have dropped by 10.9% (following a 10.1% decline the previous month). The rate of price growth for transportation services slowed to 8.8% (after rising 9.4% in June), and clothing prices grew by 0.2% (down from 0.8%). Food prices remained unchanged at 2.2%. Energy costs increased by 1.1% (up 1% in June), but gasoline fell by 2.2% (previously down 2.5%). The CPI report released on Wednesday adds to the overall picture, following earlier reports on the PPI and wages. On Tuesday, it was revealed that the overall PPI rose by only 2.2% year-over-year in July (forecast 2.3%). This is the first slowdown after five months of consecutive increases. The core PPI also fell into the "red zone," at 2.4% year-over-year in July (forecast 2.7%). The indicator had accelerated for the last three months, but growth rates slowed sharply in July. In addition, the July Non-Farm Payrolls report indicated that average hourly earnings grew by only 3.6% (forecast 3.8%). This is the slowest growth rate since May 2021. In other words, inflationary pressures in the U.S. continue to ease, and the market has reacted accordingly. According to CME FedWatch tool data, the probability of a 25-bps rate cut at the September meeting has risen to 54.5%, while the likelihood of a 50-bps cut is 45.5%. The reaction of the EUR/USD pair was swift: the price surged nearly 150 pips over two days and is now trying to consolidate around the target level of 1.1050 (whereas before the release of inflation reports, the pair was drifting near the base of the 9th figure). What do the latest figures indicate? Primarily, the Federal Reserve will begin to ease monetary policy in September. The only question is how much. The balance may tilt towards a 50-bps scenario after releasing the core PCE index for July (expected at the end of August) and August's Non-Farm Payrolls (to be published in early September). The outcome of these two releases will clarify how aggressively the Fed will ease monetary policy. However, the fact that the central bank will start easing monetary policy is not up for debate. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is puzzled by the latest inflation data in the Eurozone. To recap, the overall CPI in the Eurozone accelerated to 2.6% in July (from 2.5% in June), while the core CPI remained at the previous month's level, i.e., 2.9% (forecast was a decline to 2.8%). Inflation indicators also accelerated in Germany. Inflation remained "stubborn" amid stronger GDP growth data for the Eurozone in the second quarter: the economy grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 0.6% year-on-year (growth has been recorded for three consecutive quarters). This situation suggests that the ECB might not rush into the next round of rate cuts—at least not in September. Such speculations have been increasingly heard in the market recently. The impending divergence between ECB and Fed rates supports EUR/USD buyers. From a technical perspective, the pair on the H4, D1, and W1 timeframes is at the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator and above all lines of the Ichimoku indicator, which is showing a bullish "Parade of Lines" signal on the daily chart. Downward pullbacks are advisable for opening long positions. The main target for the upward movement is the 1.1100 level, which corresponds to the upper Bollinger Bands line on the MN timeframe. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Wall Street Bulls: Weak PPI Data Pushes Market Higher Indices Rise on Rate Cut Expectations US stock markets posted solid gains on Tuesday, finishing at a nearly two-week high. The gains were driven by data showing slower PPI growth, bolstering expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut as early as September. Slow Producer Price Growth: What It Means for the Economy US producer prices increased less than expected in July, according to new data. This was due to a decline in services costs, which offset the rise in goods prices. On an annualized basis, the producer price index (PPI) rose by 2.2%, which is lower than the 2.7% increase in June. This suggests that inflationary pressures continue to ease, which supports market optimism about possible monetary easing. Expectations of rate cuts boost the market rally Wall Street reacted positively to the data, betting on interest rate cuts soon. According to Paul Ashworth, chief North American economist at Capital Economics, while the modest 0.1% month-on-month increase in PPI and the flat core PPI may not seem like much, they are still in line with the Fed's target of inflation below 2% year-on-year. Investors await new data Market participants' attention is now focused on the upcoming consumer price data for July, which will be published on Wednesday, and retail sales data, expected on Thursday. These reports will help investors form clearer expectations about the Fed's further actions. Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities, noted that the stable PPI data confirms the effectiveness of the Fed's efforts to control inflation. He also emphasized that the likelihood of a rate cut in the near future is becoming increasingly real. Thus, the market is optimistic about the prospects for monetary easing, which contributed to today's growth of indices. Crucial inflation data Ahead of the publication of the consumer price index, market participants are in a state of heightened anxiety. Economists and investors agree that any deviations in inflation indicators can significantly affect the dynamics of trading. "Any information we get tomorrow morning will have a significant impact on the market because everyone is very tense right now," analysts said. Cut bets: The odds are rising The chances that the US Federal Reserve will decide to cut rates by 50 basis points has risen to 55%, according to the latest FedWatch data from CME. That's a significant increase from less than 50% before the latest report. Traders are increasingly confident that the Fed will take such a step, given the current economic conditions and the need for monetary easing. Market wobbles: Unpredictability continues Uncertainty reigned in trading on Monday. The S&P 500 (.SPX) was little changed, showing a muted reaction to the latest economic news, while the Nasdaq (.IXIC) posted a small gain. This came after a week of mixed economic reports and an unexpected rate hike by the Bank of Japan. The S&P 500 (.SPX) closed the day up 90.04 points, or 1.68%, at 5,434.43. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) rose 407.00 points, or 2.43%, to 17,187.61. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) also advanced 408.63 points, or 1.04%, to 39,765.64. Sector Winners and Losers Among the sectors, information technology (.SPLRCT) and consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) were the top gainers. These sectors continue to attract investors amid robust demand and a positive outlook. Meanwhile, energy stocks (.SPNY) came under pressure. The fall in oil prices, caused by OPEC's decision to revise down its 2024 demand growth forecast, was compounded by concerns about potential supply disruptions due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. This led to a decline in energy stocks despite the overall optimism in the market. Thus, the market is eagerly awaiting tomorrow's inflation data, which could be decisive for the Federal Reserve's further actions and the indexes. Russell 2000 on the rise The Russell 2000 index, which measures the performance of small companies, showed a solid increase of 1.6%. The result highlights the positive sentiment of small business investors despite overall market volatility. Starbucks' Historic Surge Starbucks shares soared a record 24.5%, marking the company's biggest one-day gain ever. The gains came after Brian Niccol, formerly of Chipotle Mexican Grill, was named chairman and CEO of Starbucks. Investors were enthusiastic about the news, seeing it as an opportunity to further grow and strengthen the company's market position. Chipotle Shares Slip In contrast, Chipotle shares fell 7.5% following the appointment. The decline may reflect investor concerns about the company's future without Niccol, who has been instrumental in its success. Home Depot: Mixed Results Home Depot shares also rose 1.2% despite announcing a decline in full-year profit and an expected drop in same-store sales. The company was able to recoup early losses, indicating investor confidence in its long-term prospects. BuzzFeed: Narrowing Losses Boosts Shares BuzzFeed posted a stunning 25.9% gain after the company reported a quarterly report in which it narrowed its second-quarter net loss to $6.6 million from $22.5 million a year earlier. The gains encouraged investors, leading to a sharp jump in the stock. Exchange Dominance: Gainers Lead the Way On the New York Stock Exchange, gainers outnumbered decliners by a wide margin 4.36-to-1. On the Nasdaq, the ratio was 2.59-to-1, indicating that optimism was prevalent among market participants. New Highs and Lows The S&P 500 posted 17 new 52-week highs and three new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 55 new highs and 128 new lows. The data highlights the mixed dynamics of the market, with some stocks peaking and others struggling. Global Stocks Rise, Bond Yields Fall The MSCI World Stock Index rose 1.5%, indicating that global markets are strengthening. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields fell on expectations of monetary easing. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 3.8484% and the two-year yield fell to 3.9398%, reflecting growing expectations of interest rate cuts. The broad-based rally in stocks and the decline in bond yields underscores investor confidence in further monetary easing and a stabilizing economic environment. STOXX 600 and Nikkei on the rise again Europe's STOXX 600 index gained 0.5% and Japan's Nikkei jumped more than 3% after the holiday, providing a welcome break from the volatility of the past week. The recent volatility in the markets began with a sharp sell-off, fueled by a stronger yen and growing concerns about a possible recession in the US. Yen Strengthens: New Round Against the Dollar The yen has continued to strengthen, reaching 146.77 per dollar, representing a significant recovery from a seven-month high of 141.675 hit early last week. By comparison, the yen was at a 38-year low of 161.96 per dollar in early July, highlighting the scale of recent moves in the currency market. Carry Trade Challenges: Unpredictable Japanese Policy The Bank of Japan's rate hike last month following a series of foreign exchange market interventions has forced many investors to rethink their strategies. Popular carry trades, which use the yen as a low-interest currency to fund higher-yielding investments, have been particularly hard hit. This has led to significant market corrections as investors have begun to unwind their yen positions en masse. Sharp Unwinding: Investors Pull Back Fast As of August 6, leveraged funds, including hedge funds and asset managers, have unwound their yen positions at the fastest pace since March 2011. The rapid unwinding reflects market participants' concerns and attempts to minimize risk in a volatile environment. Forward to the Future: The Yen Will Remain in Focus Carsten Junius, chief economist at Bank J. Safra Sarasin, noted that the current dollar-yen exchange rate now better reflects the yield differential between the two currencies. However, he believes that further unwinding of the carry trade financed by the yen could further strengthen the Japanese currency by the end of the year. At the same time, he does not expect USD/JPY to fall significantly below 140. Thus, with markets recovering and exchange rates continuing to adjust, investors will remain focused on the yen and the Bank of Japan's decisions, which could continue to influence global financial markets. The Fed at a crossroads: upcoming decisions in question This week, investors are awaiting the release of key economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next steps. At the moment, forecasts are divided: some see the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points, while others expect a more aggressive 50 basis point cut at the September meeting. Traders are betting: a 100 basis point cut? Amid speculation about what the Fed might do, traders are pricing in the possibility of a rate cut of as much as 100 basis points within a year. That scenario has gained traction after last week's weak payrolls data sent markets lower, although strong economic data from the US have eased fears of a slowdown. Inflation in the crosshairs: Dollar weakness possible Christina Clifton, senior economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said any sign of easing inflation pressures could push financial markets into anticipation of a sharp rate cut by the Fed. That could put the dollar under pressure as investors look to possible monetary easing. Upcoming data: Inflation and retail sales July consumer price index (CPI) data is due out on Wednesday, with monthly inflation forecast to rise to 0.2%. The data will be key to assessing the current state of the economy. Retail sales data is due out on Thursday, which could also have a significant impact on market expectations. Bond stability and currency volatility Eurozone bond yields remain largely unchanged as the data continues to stagnate. German 10-year yields, the region's benchmark, fell to 2.188%, off last week's low of 2.074%. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against six major currencies, fell 0.49% to 102.58. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.6% to $1.09968 and the pound sterling rose 0.8% to $1.28670. These moves in the currency market reflect the current mood of market participants, who are closely watching any signals from the Federal Reserve to anticipate the future direction of U.S. monetary policy. Oil prices fall after sudden spike Brent crude prices fell 1.9% to $80.78 per barrel, while WTI futures fell 2% to $78.46 per barrel. Markets correct after wild start to week Recall that Brent crude posted impressive gains on Monday, rising more than 3%, while WTI futures added over 4%. However, despite this rise, markets have returned to decline, indicating continued volatility in the commodity market. Factors Affecting Price Fluctuations Current oil price fluctuations are linked to a variety of factors, including expectations about global supply and demand, as well as geopolitical risks and economic data. These dynamic changes continue to cause sharp fluctuations in the market, forcing participants to be constantly prepared for sudden turns. 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Awaiting CPI: How Wall Street is preparing for the next round of events Wall Street ends trading session with mixed results as investors await key economic data Wall Street ended trading mixed on Monday as market participants prepared for important economic data to be released this week. Investors are particularly focused on the upcoming U.S. consumer price data, which will determine the future course of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Indexes mixed The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost ground, while the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ended modestly higher. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 0.9%. Popular rotation is losing momentum "The recent trend of investors to switch to smaller companies like the Russell 2000, cyclicals and financials has already begun to wane," said James Abate, chief investment officer at Centre Asset Management in New York. He said current economic conditions are not conducive to sustained earnings and stock price growth. Focus on Consumer Prices and Retail Sales Investors are looking ahead to the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) this week, due on Wednesday. The data is expected to show inflation accelerating 0.2% in July from June, with the annual inflation rate remaining at 3%. Market participants are also focused on reports from major retailers, which will help gauge current consumer demand. Rate Forecasts: What the Market Expects The consensus in the money market is that the Fed could cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points as early as September. According to CME's FedWatch tool, a total monetary easing of 100 basis points is expected by the end of 2024. Investors Await Retail Sales Data: Potential Impact on the Economy Investors will be focused on the US retail sales report for July on Thursday. While expectations point to a modest increase, any weakness in the data could reignite concerns about slowing consumer demand and even the possibility of a recession. Walmart and Home Depot earnings under scrutiny Big retailers like Walmart and Home Depot are also set to report earnings in the coming days. The results will be closely watched by analysts and investors as they provide an important indicator of the health of the consumer market amid rising unemployment. Market Risks: Inflation and Consumer Sentiment James Abate, chief investment officer at Centre Asset Management, warns that a surprise rise in inflation that exceeds expectations could seriously disappoint the market. He says retail earnings are especially important now given recent signs of labor market trouble. Indices mixed The trading session ended mixed, with the S&P 500 up 0.23 points to 5,344.39 and the Nasdaq Composite up 35.31 points, or 0.21%, to 16,780.61. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 140.53 points, or 0.36%, to close at 39,357.01. Starbucks on the rise, KeyCorp attracts investors Starbucks shares soared 2.58% after reports that activist investor Starboard Value, which holds a stake in the company, is pushing for measures aimed at boosting the coffee giant's stock. KeyCorp also posted a strong gain of 9.1% after Canadian bank Scotiabank announced it had acquired a minority stake in the U.S. regional lender for $2.8 billion. Hawaiian Electric's Future in Doubt Meanwhile, Hawaiian Electric shares plunged 14.45% as the utility expressed concerns about its ability to continue operating amid mounting financial difficulties. Equity Market: Declines Prevail, but Volatility Eases Trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq ended with decliners dominating. On the NYSE, the ratio of decliners to gainers was 1.46 to 1, while on the Nasdaq, the ratio was even higher at 1.54 to 1. New Highs and Lows: Daily Stats The S&P 500 posted 10 new 52-week highs and 7 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 51 new highs and 179 new lows. These figures show that despite the overall decline, there are still some growth points in the market. Soothing Volatility: Markets Try to Stabilize While volatility in the markets has eased significantly since last week, when U.S. stocks suffered a sharp decline, nervousness among investors may persist for some time. The panic flare-up appears to have died down, but history shows that markets can remain under pressure for months. Cboe Volatility Index Returns to Normal The Cboe Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX and often referred to as the "fear index," has stabilized near 20 after hitting a four-year high last week. That's down from its recent peak of 38.57 on August 5. The rapid decline in the VIX is a sign that the sharp moves in the market were driven by short-term factors, such as the unwinding of highly leveraged positions, rather than fundamental issues related to the state of the global economy. Bet on Stability: Short-Term Factors Dominate Many market participants see the dissipation of fears as further confirmation that the recent collapse was driven by technicals, including the unwinding of leveraged positions and carry trades financed by the Japanese yen. Investors are confident that these factors are temporary and do not point to deeper structural problems in the global economy. Markets Remain Tense: VIX Volatility as an Anxiety Indicator Despite the recent decline in the VIX volatility index, history shows that markets can remain in a state of heightened anxiety for months after a sharp decline. Episodes where the VIX has risen above 35 are usually followed by a prolonged period of investor caution, which dampens the risk-taking that had previously fueled asset prices. Volatility Takes Time to Normalize According to experts, after the VIX reaches a level above 35, which is often associated with a high degree of anxiety among market participants, it takes about 170 trading sessions on average for the index to return to its long-term median of 17.6. This highlights that even after an initial calm, markets can remain volatile for a long time. Investors Are Temporarily Calmed, But Anxiety Remains J.J. Kinahan, CEO of IG North America and president of online broker Tastytrade, said: "Once the VIX stabilizes in a range, investors begin to feel more relaxed again. However, shocks like the current one usually linger in the memory for six to nine months, maintaining a heightened sense of caution." The S&P 500's Long Rise The recent turmoil in the U.S. stock market has come after a long period of stability and growth. The S&P 500 has risen 19% for the year, hitting a record high in early July. However, the rally has proven to be unsustainable: poor earnings reports from several major tech companies in July triggered a massive sell-off, sending the VIX rising from the low end of the tens of points to higher levels. Unexpected BOJ Action Adds Volatility The crisis deepened in late July and early August when the BOJ unexpectedly raised interest rates by 25 basis points. The move hurt carry traders who had borrowed cheaply in Japanese yen to invest in high-yielding assets such as U.S. tech stocks and Bitcoin. Fast Fall and Rebound: Positional Risk Dominates Mandy Xu, head of derivatives research at Cboe Global Markets, said the sharp market decline followed by an equally rapid rebound suggests that the current gyrations are largely due to position unwinding and risk shifting among market participants. Volatility Isolated: Equities and FX Under Pressure Mandy Xu, head of derivatives research at Cboe Global Markets, stressed that recent spikes in volatility, such as the one seen on August 5, have been concentrated in equities and FX. She noted that other asset classes, such as interest rates and credit, have not seen a significant increase in volatility, suggesting that the current swings are limited. Investor Jitters: Awaiting Key Data With uncertainty still looming, investors have every reason to be nervous in the coming months. The biggest worry remains economic data due out of the US. The consumer price report due out later this week will be a key indicator of whether the economy is facing a short-term slowdown or heading for a more serious slowdown. Political Tensions Add to Uncertainty Political uncertainty is also adding fuel to the fire. With the US elections in November and tensions rising in the Middle East, investors remain on edge as they watch for developments that could significantly impact the market. Awaiting Inflation and Retail Earnings Data Investors will be focused on the CPI data due out on August 14. In addition, earnings reports from giants like Walmart and other major retailers this week could be key to shaping market sentiment. Mark Hackett, head of investment research at Nationwide, said these data could have a decisive impact on investor behavior. Emotional reactions in the market: forecasts and risks "It is not surprising that in light of recent events, investors may overreact to inflation data, retail earnings and retail sales," Hackett said. In the current emotional environment, any deviations from expectations could cause significant volatility. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

S&P 500 Erases Losses: Week in Review and Wall Street Scenarios for Next Week Markets Stabilize: S&P 500 Ends Week Little Changed The S&P 500 stock index showed solid gains on Friday, managing to almost completely recoup losses suffered earlier in the week amid recession fears and a curtailment of global yen-financed trade. The market remained almost flat for the week, despite sharp fluctuations. Technology Pulls Market Up Technology was the biggest contributor to the S&P 500's gains on Friday, proving to be the engine that pulled the market out of the negative territory. Meanwhile, the Cboe Volatility Index, known as Wall Street's "fear gauge," fell sharply after a sharp jump earlier in the week. Monday's swings and recession fears The market had a particularly bad start to the week, with a sharp drop on Monday continuing the sell-off that began the previous week. Investors were spooked by a weaker-than-expected July employment report, raising concerns about a possible recession. In response, many began to close their carry trades linked to the Japanese yen. Investors looking for a foothold "Investors are trying to determine whether the market has bottomed out," said Robert Phipps, managing director at Per Stirling Capital Management in Austin, Texas. He said the market is in a period of high uncertainty, and participants are actively looking for signals for further action. Fed Offers Confidence The Federal Reserve said Thursday that slowing inflation is setting the stage for a possible rate cut in the future. However, they said any decisions would be based on current economic data, adding to the uncertainty. Waiting for More Data It's been a volatile week, with investors eagerly awaiting more data on inflation, corporate earnings, and presidential polls. These could be key factors in determining the direction of U.S. stocks and helping to smooth out the current market turbulence. Market Volatility: U.S. Stocks on a Swing The quiet months in U.S. stock markets have suddenly given way to bouts of volatility. Sharp price movements became a new reality for investors in August, driven by a string of worrisome economic data that coincided with the completion of a major deal financed by the Japanese yen. The deal triggered the biggest selloff in stocks this year. Despite recent recovery efforts, the S&P 500 remains 6% below its all-time high set last month, though it has rebounded from a dramatic plunge earlier in the week. Recovery May Take Time While the past few days have brought relief in the form of rising stocks, experts warn against expecting calm to return to markets anytime soon. Historical data on the Cboe Volatility Index, also known as Wall Street's "fear gauge," shows that periodic spikes in volatility can last for months. On Monday, the index posted its biggest one-day gain, indicating a high degree of anxiety among investors. Wall Street's Fear Gauge: Echoes of Anxiety The Cboe index measures demand for options, which provide protection against sharp market swings. When the index closes above 35, as it did on Monday, it takes about 170 trading sessions on average for the market to return to calmer levels. This is in line with the index's long-term median of 17.6, signaling significantly less anxiety among market participants. New Test: Inflation Data A new potential test for the market is on the horizon. On Wednesday, U.S. consumer price data will be released. If inflation shows too sharp a decline, it could fuel concerns that the Federal Reserve has made a mistake in leaving interest rates high for too long. This could lead to further market instability as investors worry that tight monetary policy will push the economy into recession. U.S. stocks, which have been going through periods of ups and downs, are in a state of heightened anxiety, and there are no signs that this situation will change quickly. Investors continue to watch the new data closely, hoping for stability that so far seems out of reach. Market ends week with minimal changes Friday's trading ended with a slight increase in the main indices, which allowed them to compensate for some of the weekly losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 51.05 points, which corresponds to an increase of 0.13%, and reached 39,497.54. The S&P 500 index rose by 24.85 points, or 0.47%, closing at 5,344.16. The Nasdaq Composite also showed positive dynamics, increasing by 85.28 points, or 0.51%, and ended trading at 16,745.30. Weekly results: small losses against expectations Despite the positive end of the week, the indicators for the week as a whole were in the negative. The S&P 500 fell 0.05%, the Dow Jones lost 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.2%. The current market situation reflects the nervousness of investors who are waiting for more signals from the Federal Reserve. Waiting for the Fed's decision: What's next? Michael James, managing director of equities at Wedbush Securities, notes that the market will remain in a state of heightened uncertainty until the next Federal Reserve meeting on September 17-18. The main focus of traders is on whether the Fed will decide to cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points. According to CME Group, the probability of a 50 basis point cut is estimated at 51%, while the probability of a softer 25 basis point cut is 49%. Investors Await Inflation Data In addition to the Fed's decisions, investors are eagerly awaiting consumer price and retail sales data for July, due out next week. These figures could provide a clearer picture of whether the U.S. economy will avoid a hard landing and provide direction for the market going forward. Yearly Gains: Tech on the Rise Despite recent wobbles, all three major indexes have continued to post strong gains since the start of 2024, helped by strong earnings from major tech companies and optimism around artificial intelligence. Stocks have shown strong gains early in the year, helping the market stay positive amid the overall turbulence. Investors continue to watch the events unfold, awaiting more economic data and policy decisions to see where the market will head in the near future. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Continue Strong Gains The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have both posted impressive gains to end the year, up about 12% each since Dec. 31. The recent selloff in stocks has made tech stocks more affordable on a price-to-earnings basis, bringing them back into the spotlight. The Day's Winners: Take-Two and Expedia Friday's trading was marked by gains for individual stocks, particularly in the tech and entertainment sectors. Video game publisher Take-Two Interactive Software jumped 4.4% after forecasting higher net bookings in fiscal years 2026 and 2027. Meanwhile, online travel agency Expedia rose 10.2% after reporting quarterly earnings that beat analysts' expectations. Trading Activity: What's Happening on the Stock Markets? Trading volume on U.S. exchanges on Friday was 11.13 billion shares, slightly below the 20-day average of 12.59 billion. Advancing stocks outnumbered declining stocks on the New York Stock Exchange by a 1.39-to-1 ratio. However, the situation was slightly different on the Nasdaq, with decliners outnumbering gainers by a 1.14-to-1 ratio. New Highs and Lows: Who's Leading the Way? The S&P 500 posted 15 new 52-week highs and just three new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite was more mixed, with 52 new highs and 159 new lows. The data reflects continued uncertainty in the market despite the overall gains in the indices. Market Expectations: Rate Cuts on the Horizon? Futures markets are increasingly biased toward the Federal Reserve cutting its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points at its next meeting in September. The probability of this scenario is estimated at 55%, a sharp change from the 5% chance recorded a month ago. Economic Risks: A New Reality Slower wage growth confirms that economic risks in the U.S. are becoming more balanced, especially against the backdrop of lower inflation and slower economic activity, said Oscar Munoz, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities, emphasizing that the current economic environment requires special attention and caution from investors and analysts. The market remains in a state of anticipation, and the coming months will show whether U.S. stocks can continue their rally or face new challenges. Corporate Earnings Do Not Send Clear Signals to the Market Corporate earnings for the second quarter did not have a significant impact on the market, leaving investors in uncertainty. Charles Lemonides, head of hedge fund ValueWorks LLC, said the results were neither strong nor weak enough to provide a clear direction for the market. Solid Results: S&P 500 Meets Expectations The S&P 500 reported results that were, on average, 4.1% above analysts' estimates. That's close to the long-term average of 4.2% above expectations, according to LSEG. While the results suggest stability, they haven't significantly changed market sentiment. Earnings to Watch: Walmart, Home Depot, Nvidia Investors will be focused on earnings next week from giants like Walmart and Home Depot, which could provide insight into how U.S. consumers are coping with the effects of a prolonged period of high interest rates. Also expected by the end of the month is earnings from chip giant Nvidia, whose shares have already risen an impressive 110% year-to-date despite recent market wobbles. Jackson Hole Meeting: Key Event for the Fed The Federal Reserve's annual meeting in Jackson Hole, scheduled for August 22-24, will be a key venue for monetary policy discussions ahead of the Fed's September meeting. The event is attracting investors' attention because it could provide insight into the regulator's next steps amid ongoing economic uncertainty. Volatility as a Signal to Action Lemonides, an investment expert, believes that recent market volatility is a natural and healthy correction in a strong bull market. He sees it as an opportunity for strategic investing and recently began building positions in Amazon.com, betting on a recovery from the recent weakness in its shares. Political Uncertainty Rises The U.S. presidential race is also adding uncertainty to the market. According to an Ipsos poll released Thursday, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 42% to 37% in the upcoming November 5 election. Political instability will certainly be a factor in investor sentiment in the coming months. Investors continue to monitor developments, waiting for new data and signals that will help determine the future direction of the markets. Kamala Harris Enters the Presidential Race Vice President Kamala Harris officially entered the presidential race on July 21, after President Joe Biden ended his campaign following a poor performance in the June 27 debate against Donald Trump. The decision significantly changed the political landscape, adding intrigue to the race. Election Turbulence: Markets Anticipate More Twists With three months to go until the November 5 election, investors are bracing for more surprises in what has already been a dramatic election year. According to JPMorgan analysts, the early stages of the campaign provided a clearer picture of the likely outcome of the presidential and congressional elections, but recent events have once again thrown the outcome into doubt. Election Volatility: Experts' View Chris Marangi, co-chief investment officer at Gabelli Funds, predicts that the presidential race will inevitably lead to increased volatility in financial markets. However, he believes that the expected rate cuts in September could cause capital to rotate into sectors of the market that have been lagging amid the dominance of Big Tech. "We expect volatility to increase during the election period, but at the same time, we expect the market to continue to rotate as lower rates offset economic weakness," Marangi said. Political and Economic Uncertainty: What's Next? The election year has already become one of the most unpredictable in recent memory, and investors continue to closely monitor political events, trying to assess their impact on the economy and markets. As November approaches, volatility is likely to only increase, adding new challenges for all market participants. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

New round of gains: Nasdaq, S&P 500 up 2% on US unemployment report US stocks rally: S&P 500 and Nasdaq jump more than 2% US stock markets surged higher on Thursday, with major indices including the Nasdaq and S&P 500 ending the day up more than 2%. The gains were driven by an unexpected drop in jobless claims, which eased concerns about a possible sharp slowdown in the labor market. Rebound Across Sectors All sectors of the S&P 500 gained, with the biggest gainers being technology (.SPLRCT) and communications services (.SPLRCL). Small-caps also saw strong gains, with the Russell 2000 (.RUT) up 2.4%. Eli Lilly Rises Among the top gainers was pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly (LLY.N), which soared 9.5% after the company raised its full-year profit forecast and sales of its popular weight-loss drug Zepbound topped $1 billion for the first time in a quarter. Positive Labor Market Data A larger-than-expected decline in jobless claims gave markets a boost. Impact of Reports and Recession Fears Last week, the US employment reports for July raised concerns about a possible recession, leading to a sharp decline in stocks. Traders also noted an unwinding of positions in the carry trade, a strategy in which investors borrow money from low-interest-rate economies to invest in high-yielding assets. The market continues to react to macroeconomic data, and investors will be closely watching new data in the coming weeks to assess the state of the economy and possible prospects. Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the day on a solid rise US stock indexes ended the trading day with significant gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 683.04 points, or 1.76%, to 39,446.49. The S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 119.81 points, or 2.30%, to 5,319.31. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) rose 464.22 points, or 2.87%, to end the day at 16,660.02. Volatility Declines: Wall Street Calms Down The Cboe Volatility Index (.VIX), often called Wall Street's fear gauge, declined Thursday, suggesting that sentiment is stabilizing. However, experts caution that the current gains do not necessarily mean the market has bottomed out. "Once volatility starts to rise, it takes a while for it to calm down," said David Lundgren, chief market strategist and portfolio manager at Little Harbor Advisors. He also added that the current growth does not guarantee an immediate continuation of the rise, but if we look at the three- to six-month horizon, the probability of above-average returns is quite high. End of the earnings season: Investor expectations As the second-quarter earnings season comes to an end, investors are eagerly awaiting the final results. There were some disappointments at the start of the reporting period, but the market remains focused on the latest data. Under Armour surprises the markets One of the most significant events of the day was the sudden rise of Under Armour (UAA.N) shares by 19.2%. The company pleased investors with a surprise first-quarter profit, which was the result of successful efforts to reduce inventory and promotions. Trading activity: Moderate recovery Trading volume on U.S. exchanges amounted to 11.98 billion shares, slightly below the average of 12.60 billion over the past 20 trading days. However, the market remains active, and participants continue to closely monitor further economic indicators and corporate reports. Advances outnumber decliners on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) 3.59 to 1. The same was true on the Nasdaq, where for every decliner, there were 2.76 gainers. The S&P 500 has posted 7 new highs in the past 52 weeks, but also 4 new lows. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite has posted 32 new highs, but 183 new lows. Global Markets Strengthen on Better Unemployment Data A closely watched global stock index jumped more than 1% on Thursday, helped by lower-than-expected U.S. jobless claims data. The results eased recession fears and helped lift Treasury yields and the dollar. Oil Market Rises as Supply Concerns Outweigh Demand Oil futures prices rose for a third straight day, led by rising supply risks in the Middle East, offsetting demand concerns that earlier this week sent prices to their lowest since early 2024. Jobless Claims Drop Sharply in 11 Months The Labor Department reported Thursday that initial claims for federal unemployment benefits fell by 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 in the week ended Aug. 3. That was the largest decline in 11 months and below economists' forecast of 240,000. Data Focus Amid Market Volatility These jobless claims data are especially important following Friday's weaker-than-expected July jobs report, which triggered a slump in financial markets on Monday that affected not only the U.S. but also global markets. Amid such volatility, investors continue to watch economic data closely to gauge future market developments. Markets on Edge: Investors Unwind Carry Trades The recent market selloff was driven in part by investors unwinding their carry trades, a strategy that involves using cheap borrowing in Japan to buy dollars and other currencies that are then invested in higher-yielding assets. The unwinding of such trades sent Japanese stocks down 12% on Monday, followed by a 3% decline in the S&P 500 (.SPX). Volatility Ahead: Uncertainties Rise Experts warn that there could be more volatility ahead, and it won't just be driven by the seasonal weakness that is typical in August and September. Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the upcoming US elections and economic data that the Federal Reserve will be watching closely are creating a high degree of uncertainty in the market. "The market doesn't like uncertainty, and we are in that period now," says Irene Tankel, chief US equity strategist at BCA Research. European and global indices: modest gains amid volatility While US markets faced turbulence, Europe's STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) closed with a modest gain of 0.08%. The MSCI Global Equity Index (.MIWD00000PUS) also showed positive dynamics, rising 11.40 points, or 1.48%, to 782.10. FX: Dollar strengthens amid global uncertainty In currency markets, the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major global currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.09% to 103.20. The euro, by contrast, weakened slightly, falling 0.04% to $1.0917. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.3% to 147.13. Record volatility: Global markets on edge Before Thursday, the global equity index had posted 16 days of gains or losses of more than 1% this year, while the S&P 500 had recorded 32 such moves. This highlights the record volatility that markets have seen this year, and investors should brace for more volatility in the coming months. U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise on positive economic data U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise on Thursday, helped by jobless claims data that bolstered confidence that the U.S. economy can avoid an imminent recession. The data supported expectations for economic resilience, pushing yields higher. In addition, weak demand at the 30-year bond auction added to the yields' upward movement, continuing a trend that began amid similarly weak selling of 10-year notes the previous day. Yields Rising: Key Indicators The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose 2.1 basis points to 3.988%, up from 3.967% at the close of trading on Wednesday. The yield on the 30-year note also rose, adding 1.6 basis points to 4.2775%, up from 4.261% the previous day. Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year note, which often reflects expectations for future interest rates, rose 2.9 basis points to 4.0297%, up from 4.001% the previous day. Oil Markets: Oil Prices Continue to Rise Strongly Energy markets also saw gains. U.S. crude oil rose 1.28%, or 96 cents, to $76.19 a barrel. European benchmark Brent crude settled at $79.16 a barrel, up 1.06% from the previous day. Gold Shows Strong Gains In the precious metals market, gold prices also continued to rise. Spot gold prices rose 1.78% to $2,423.87 an ounce. U.S. gold futures also showed positive dynamics, rising 1.25% to $2,420.50 an ounce. Economic confidence boosts demand for assets Rising Treasury yields and stronger oil and gold positions indicate continued optimism in the markets despite some economic concerns. Investors continue to seek assets that can protect them from potential volatility, and current economic data only strengthens their confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Nasdaq in the red: weak bond auction, tech companies fall Tech sector under pressure The U.S. stock market closed lower on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq index losing 1%. The main reason was a decline in tech stocks, exacerbated by weak interest in the 10-year Treasury auction, which caused investor jitters amid volatile trading. Morning gains turn to losses Trading started on a positive note with tech giants rising, but both indexes began to lose ground as the day progressed. Investors, still jittery from the recent global sell-off in equities, added to the sell-off after a weak Treasury auction sent the market lower. Red Zone: All Indexes Die All three major indexes ended the day in the red, with losses widening just before the close. The tech-heavy S&P 500 (.SPLRCT) fell 1.4%, becoming the biggest drag on the benchmark index. Recession Worries Investors are worried about a possible U.S. recession, as well as weaker forecasts from major U.S. companies. These factors are weighing on the market. Day's Results: Big Losses The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 234.21 points, or 0.6%, to 38,763.45. The S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 40.53 points, or 0.77%, to 5,199.5. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) fell 171.05 points, or 1.05%, to 16,195.81. Expert Opinions Lindsey Bell, chief strategist at 248 Ventures in Charlotte, North Carolina, said investors may also have been taking profits after stocks rebounded Tuesday. Big Losses The Nasdaq and S&P 500 each lost at least 3% on Monday, underscoring the volatility of the current market environment. Impact of Comments from Japan Stocks received some support Wednesday after Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said the central bank has no plans to raise rates amid volatile financial markets. Nikkei surges after decline Japanese stocks rose on the news. The Nikkei (.N225) rose 1%, extending a 10% rebound that began on Tuesday after a sharp decline on Monday. The Nikkei's sudden 12.4% decline triggered a global decline in equities as investors turned away from risky assets. Japan rate hike fallout The Bank of Japan's surprise rate hike on July 31 to a level not seen in 15 years triggered a sell-off in global markets. Investors began unloading their yen positions in a carry trade, sending the low-yielding Japanese currency, which is typically used to buy high-yielding assets, sharply higher. Disappointing Corporate Results Walt Disney Shares Slide Walt Disney (DIS.N) shares fell 4.5% after the company warned of "moderate demand" for its theme parks in coming quarters. Super Micro Computer Slide Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O) shares tumbled 20.1% after the company reported lower-than-expected quarterly adjusted gross profit. Rival Dell Technologies (DELL.N) also fell 4.9%. Market Expectations Federal Reserve Eyes Investors are eagerly awaiting further comments on monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, with particular attention focused on an event in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak. Trading Activity Trading volume on U.S. exchanges on Wednesday was 12.93 billion shares, slightly above the 20-day average of 12.63 billion shares. Declining Stocks Prevail Declining stocks outnumbered advancing stocks on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) by 1.48 to 1. On the Nasdaq, the ratio was even more pronounced, with decliners outnumbering advancing stocks by 2.08 to 1. Highs and Lows: Market Trends S&P 500 and Nasdaq Performance The S&P 500 posted 16 new 52-week highs and 9 new lows. The Nasdaq Composite posted 34 new highs and 195 new lows, putting the tech sector under significant pressure. External Factors Oil Price Rise Oil prices rose on a bigger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude inventories and a possible escalation in the Middle East. However, investors continue to voice concerns about weak demand in China. S&P 500 Volatility Daily Performance After a morning rally on Wednesday, the S&P 500 began to lose ground around midday and then fell further after the 10-year U.S. Treasury auction. Profit Taking Bell also noted that some investors are using short-term stock gains to take profits, adding to the volatility in the market. MSCI falls, STOXX 600 rises The MSCI World Share Index (.MIWD00000PUS) fell 0.35 points, or 0.05%, to 770.64, after hitting a session high of 783.83. Meanwhile, Europe's STOXX 600 (.STOXX) ended the day up 1.5%, reflecting positive momentum in European markets. FX Markets: BoJ Statements React Yen Falls The Japanese yen weakened after the Bank of Japan's rate hike announcements, somewhat reassuring investors worried about the volatility of the Japanese currency. The yen strengthened sharply against the dollar on Monday amid concerns about a possible U.S. recession, sending markets falling broadly. Strengthening dollar The US dollar strengthened 1.75% against the yen, reaching 146.83. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.2% to 103.19. The euro, meanwhile, fell 0.08% to $1.0921. Bond yields: An analysis of supply and demand US Treasury yields rise US Treasury yields rose after weak demand at a $42 billion auction of 10-year notes. Companies rushed to place their debt amid growing risk appetite. Traders are closely monitoring supply and awaiting more economic data to assess the health of the US economy. Specifics The 10-year Treasury yield rose 7 basis points to 3.958%, up from 3.888% late Tuesday. The 30-year yield also rose, adding 8.1 basis points to 4.2579%. These moves highlight the current market sentiment, with investors seeking to balance risk and return amid economic uncertainty. Two-Year Yields Decline The two-year Treasury yield, which closely tracks interest rate expectations, fell 0.2 basis points to 3.9827%, down from 3.985% late Tuesday. The move reflects a slight softening in investor expectations for future Federal Reserve action. Energy Markets: Oil Prices Rising Oil Prices Strengthening Energy markets are seeing a significant rise in oil prices. US crude oil rose 2.77% to $75.23 per barrel. Brent crude prices also rose, rising 2.42% to $78.33 per barrel. These changes come amid concerns about depleting reserves and a possible escalation of conflicts in the Middle East. Precious Metals Market: Gold Prices Fall Gold Price Decline Precious metal prices declined. Spot gold lost 0.2% to $2,384.59 per ounce. US gold futures also fell, falling 0.05% to $2,387.80 per ounce. These changes may be related to fluctuations in currency markets and changing investor sentiment. Results and Prospects Markets continue to show volatility in response to changes in economic indicators and geopolitical risks. Investors are closely monitoring developments, trying to adapt their strategies to the new conditions. Interest rate expectations and rising oil prices play key roles in shaping market sentiment. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

From sell-off to gains: stock indexes show positive dynamics Markets recover from sharp decline The S&P 500 and Nasdaq jumped 1% on Tuesday, showing a strong recovery from the recent sell-off. Investors began to actively buy stocks again, inspired by positive comments from Federal Reserve officials, which eased fears about a possible recession in the U.S. Global growth and a return to risk Equally on the day, stocks around the world began to recover from the aggressive declines the previous day. Amid this gain, U.S. Treasury yields increased and the dollar strengthened. Investors have returned to buying riskier assets despite lingering concerns about an economic slowdown. Cooling Optimism The Dow Jones Industrial Average also showed positive dynamics, but, like other major indices, it fell by the end of the trading day, falling short of the daily highs. This shows some caution among market participants despite the overall improvement in sentiment. Fed calms markets U.S. Federal Reserve officials issued statements rejecting the view that weak July employment data points to an approaching recession. However, they warned that lowering interest rates may be necessary to prevent a possible economic slowdown. Rate cuts likely Amid weak economic data, stocks were under pressure, fueling fears of a U.S. recession. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in the likelihood of a rate cut at the next meeting in September, with 75% expecting a 50 basis point cut and 25% expecting a 25 basis point cut. S&P 500 Sectors Advance: The Day's Top Performers All of the major sectors of the S&P 500 ended the day higher, with real estate and financials leading the way. Tech company Nvidia was a particular highlight, jumping nearly 4% to lead the gains for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Investors Return to the Market "The market has been oversupplied, but there's a significant recovery happening, particularly in the Nasdaq. Investors are starting to believe again that lower interest rates will be good for stocks," said Rick Meckler, a partner at Cherry Lane Investments, a family-owned investment firm in New Vernon, N.J. Indices Are Rising The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 294.39 points, or 0.76%, to 38,997.66. The S&P 500 gained 53.7 points, or 1.04%, to 5,240.03, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 166.77 points, or 1.03%, to 16,366.86. The Impact of Artificial Intelligence The Nasdaq Composite has risen 9% in 2024, helped by strong earnings and a bullish outlook for AI. However, as Meckler noted, "while recent earnings have been good, they have fallen short of expectations in many cases." Market valuations remain high, with the S&P 500 trading at 20 times trailing 12-month earnings, according to LSEG, well above the long-term average of 15.7. Expectations and Risks Amid unexpected developments such as the Bank of Japan's recent rate hike, investors have begun to unwind the yen-denominated financing that has been used to buy stocks for years. This has added to market uncertainty and left many wondering about the outlook. Awaiting Powell's Speech One of the key events investors are watching is Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at a symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, scheduled for August 22-24. His words could influence future market moves and provide insight into the future of monetary policy. Uber and Caterpillar Succeed Uber shares soared 11%, beating Wall Street's second-quarter revenue and profit expectations. The company was able to show solid growth thanks to strong demand for its ride-sharing and food delivery services. Meanwhile, Caterpillar shares rose 3% as the company also beat analysts' forecasts despite weaker demand in North America. Rising prices for heavy equipment such as excavators helped offset those losses. Trading Activity on the Rise Trading volume on U.S. stock exchanges totaled 13.52 billion shares, above the 20-day average of 12.48 billion. Advancing stocks outnumbered declining stocks on the New York Stock Exchange by a 2.59-to-1 ratio, while the Nasdaq saw a 1.93-to-1 ratio. Highs and Lows The S&P 500 posted 12 new 52-week highs and seven new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 31 new highs and 144 new lows. These figures highlight the continued volatile market, with gains and losses alike. Oil Prices Rebounding Oil prices also edged higher after falling to multi-month lows on Monday. Investors' attention has shifted to supply-side concerns, which, along with a recovery in financial markets, has eased concerns about future energy demand. Nikkei recovery: relief after collapse Tokyo's Nikkei index rose 10%, providing some relief after its 12.4% plunge on Monday. The drop was the biggest one-day sell-off in Japan since Black Monday in 1987, causing global investor jitters. Fed: Slowdown, not recession U.S. Federal Reserve officials on Monday dismissed speculation about a recession despite weak employment data for July. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stressed that current data suggest the economy is slowing, but not collapsing. She noted the importance of preventing a labor market crisis. Global Markets Rise The MSCI index, which tracks shares around the world, rose 8.91 points, or 1.17%, to 770.99, off its daily high of 777.81. That followed a more than 3% drop on Monday, marking the third straight day of losses for the global market. European Markets Volatility Europe's STOXX 600 index ended the session up 0.29%, despite earlier volatility, when it fell 0.54%. That underscores the nervousness among European investors trying to adjust to rapidly changing market conditions. FX Market Jitters On the FX front, the dollar strengthened against its major counterparts, while the Japanese yen hit seven-month highs against the US dollar. Some of the more dramatic moves of recent days have eased, and markets are beginning to feel a sense of calm again. Dollar Strengthens Amid Currency Volatility The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against major currencies including the yen and euro, rose 0.07% to 102.94. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar gained 0.4% to 144.74, while the euro weakened 0.2% to $1.093. U.S. Treasury Yields Rise U.S. Treasury yields rose as fears of a potential recession in the country proved overblown, dampening demand for safe-haven U.S. bonds. The 10-year yield rose 12 basis points to 3.903%, while the 30-year yield rose 12.1 basis points to 4.1924%. The yield on 2-year bonds, which often react to changes in interest rate expectations, also rose to 3.9936%. Oil prices recover Oil prices have stabilized after falling on Monday. U.S. crude rose 0.36% to $73.20 a barrel, while Brent crude ended the trading session at $76.48 a barrel, up 0.24% from the previous day. Precious Metals: Gold Loses Ground With the dollar strengthening and bond yields rising, precious metals prices fell. Spot gold fell 0.82% to $2,387.88 an ounce. U.S. gold futures also fell 0.37% to $2,392.70 an ounce. However, expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut in September and ongoing tensions in the Middle East limited gold's losses, maintaining its appeal as a safe haven asset. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

The main events by the morning: August 6 Goldman Sachs forecasts a rise in gold prices to $2,700 per ounce. Goldman Sachs Group analysts noted that long positions in gold currently represent the most valuable hedge among all commodities. The average maximum deposit rate in the largest banks of the Russian Federation exceeded 17% per annum. This is the maximum since March 2022. Rutube has more than doubled its audience over the past year. Experts believe that this is due, among other things, to the appearance of pirated content from Western majors on the platform. There is a rebound on the Asian stock exchange. Japan's Nikkei index rose 10% after a record 13% drop on Monday. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation has increased oil revenues. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation increased oil revenues by more than 60% in seven months compared to the same period last year. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

The Week Ahead on Wall Street: Economic Fears and Last Week Buying Opportunities in a Falling Market Despite the sell-off, some market participants saw a buying opportunity. Jonathan Golub, a strategist at UBS, noted in a note to clients that the market historically performs best when the VIX index widens, presenting a short-term investing opportunity. Bearish Sentiment Prevails Declining stocks outnumbered advancing stocks by nearly three to one on the New York Stock Exchange, 2.92 to 1, while the Nasdaq saw a 4.52 to 1 ratio. The S&P 500 posted 62 new 52-week highs and 15 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 34 new highs and 297 new lows. Trading Volume and Earnings Expectations Trading volume on U.S. exchanges reached 14.75 billion shares, well above the 20-day average of 11.97 billion shares. Eyes on Earnings to Come Investors will be watching earnings reports from giants like Caterpillar and Walt Disney next week, which will provide important insight into the health of the consumer and manufacturing sectors. Healthcare leaders including Eli Lilly are also expected to report, providing insight into the health of the pharmaceutical sector and its prospects. Strengthening Safe Havens With concerns mounting, investors have been flocking to safe haven bonds and other assets. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 3.79%, its lowest since December. This indicator moves inversely to bond prices, indicating increased demand for safe havens. Stable Sectors in Popularity Amid economic uncertainty, sectors traditionally considered stable have attracted increased attention. Investors have flocked to these areas in an attempt to protect their capital and minimize potential losses. Sector Performance: Healthcare and Utilities on the Rise Over the past month, the healthcare sector has posted a 4% gain, while utilities have risen more than 9%. These sectors have become safe havens for investors amid economic uncertainty. At the same time, the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index (SOX) has fallen nearly 17%, led by sharp losses in popular names like Nvidia and Broadcom. Looking Ahead: Profit Taking or the Beginning of a Correction? Some investors believe that the current data may simply reflect a desire to take profits after the market's significant rally in 2024. This approach does not exclude the possibility of further growth, but also indicates the possible beginning of a correction, especially in sectors that previously showed a confident rise. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on August 1, 2024 The results of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting implied a significant rise in the dollar, but it never happened. The market continues to stagnate despite statements from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. He explicitly mentioned the need to begin easing monetary policy. However, he did not specify when this process would start. Although there is no doubt that interest rates will be lowered as early as September, the market was generally prepared for this development. Furthermore, according to preliminary estimates, inflation in the eurozone accelerated from 2.5% to 2.6% instead of slowing down to 2.3%. This creates a precondition for the European Central Bank to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, contributing to the single European currency's strength. In other words, these factors somewhat balanced each other out. Today, the focus will be on events unfolding in Europe. First, investors expect another interest rate cut from the Bank of England, which will support the U.S. dollar. Second, the eurozone is expected to see a sharp increase in the unemployment rate from 6.4% to 6.9%. Due to the scale of the change, this is likely to have the most significant impact. Therefore, despite Powell's statements yesterday, there are all the prerequisites for further strengthening of the dollar. Despite a rich flow of information, the EUR/USD pair has not shown any speculative activity. The quote has formed a characteristic stagnation around the local low of the corrective cycle, as the support level of 1.0800 serves as a support. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI indicator is moving in the lower area of 30/50, indicating that the bearish sentiment persists in the market. Regarding the Alligator indicator on the same time frame, the moving average lines point downward, corresponding to a downward cycle. Expectations and Perspectives Subsequent price fluctuations within the 1.0800/1.0850 range are possible in this situation. When the price breaks out of either boundary of the established range, a major spike in speculative activity is expected. Complex indicator analysis points to a stagnant phase in the short-term and intraday periods. The indicators are unstable. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Tech in stress: Stocks fall, chipmakers rise amid AI debate US stock indices ended trading mixed on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling under pressure from weak chipmakers and tech giants, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average showed a slight increase. Microsoft missed expectations Tech giant Microsoft, considered a leader in artificial intelligence, ended the day down 0.89%, reaching $422.92 per share. The company's shares fell another 5% in after-hours trading as quarterly results for its cloud service Azure fell short of analysts' forecasts. Nvidia and other chipmakers are losing ground Shares in Nvidia, a recognized leader among the beneficiaries of AI growth and the second-largest player in the S&P 500, fell 7.04% to $103.73 per share. The decline had a negative impact on other chip companies, leading to a 3.88% decline in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Expectations from the giants' reports This week, investors are eagerly awaiting reports from giants such as Apple, Amazon, and Meta Platforms. Apple shares rose slightly by 0.26%, reaching $218.80, while Amazon lost 0.81%, falling to $181.71. Meta Platforms also showed a decline of 0.54%, ending the day at $463.19. Investors are concerned about the valuation of these companies against the backdrop of the current economic situation. "A lot of people are wondering right now how to profit from investing in artificial intelligence," said Stephen Massocca, senior vice president at Wedbush Securities in San Francisco. Investors are choosing caution: high stock prices are in question With expectations of a Fed rate cut growing, market participants are starting to question the fair value of stocks. "Companies are showing good financial results, but the main issue is how much their shares are worth. These are expensive securities, and investors should carefully evaluate their investments," the expert comments. Indices: Dow Jones rises, Nasdaq falls The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 203.40 points, or 0.5%, to 40,743.33. At the same time, the S&P 500 (.SPX) fell 27.10 points, or 0.5%, to 5,436.44. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) lost 222.78 points, or 1.28%, to end the day at 17,147.42. Small Caps and Financials on the Rise The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index (.RUT) rose 0.35%, while the S&P Value 500 (.IVX) rose 0.52%, helped by the Financials (.SPSY) index, which rose 1.19%. The gains are driven by a recent shift from more expensive stocks to less expensive ones, amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year, which is linked to slowing inflation. Energy and financials lead, technology falls The energy sector (.SPNY) rose 1.54%, the biggest gainer of all sectors. Financials also performed well, leading the S&P's list of 11 key sectors. Against this backdrop, the technology sector (.SPLRCT) fell 2.2%, the weakest on the day. Continued sell-off: The impact of earnings Last week's sell-off in mega-cap stocks, triggered by disappointing Tesla results and Alphabet's outlook for high spending, continues to weigh on the market. These events have heightened investor concerns, leading to a correction in stock prices and a decline in their appeal. Market prepares for Fed decision: Expectations of rate cuts Investors continue to hope for easing monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve. The policy meeting is on Wednesday, and the market is pricing in a small chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. However, according to CME's FedWatch tool, that scenario is looking very real at the September meeting. Labor data expectations Investors are focused on labor market data this week, culminating in the government's payrolls report on Friday. The Survey of Job Openings and Turnover on Tuesday showed 8.18 million job openings in June, beating economists' expectations of 8 million. Failures and successes: The impact of corporate news Among the companies whose shares fell, Procter & Gamble (PG.N) stood out, falling 4.84% to $161.70 after disappointing fourth-quarter sales data. Drug giant Merck (MRK.N) lost 9.81% to $115.25 after the company revised down its full-year profit forecast. Cybersecurity was also in the spotlight, with CrowdStrike (CRWD.O) falling 9.72% to $233.65 on news of a compensation claim from Delta Air Lines (DAL.N) over the global cyber outage. Against this backdrop, shares of cybersecurity and cloud services company F5 (FFIV.O) rose 12.99% to $200.66 on a better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings forecast. Market Breakdown On the New York Stock Exchange, advancing stocks outnumbered declining stocks by a 1.54-to-1 ratio. On the Nasdaq, the picture was less optimistic, with declining stocks outnumbering declining stocks by a 1.16-to-1 ratio. This reflects the current mood in the market, where investors continue to actively re-evaluate their portfolios amid uncertainty. S&P 500 and Nasdaq: Highs and lows amid volatile market The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices showed interesting results on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 hitting 73 new 52-week highs and one low, while the Nasdaq recorded 133 new highs and 126 lows. Trading volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.25 billion shares, slightly above the 20-day average of 11.19 billion shares. Microsoft disappointment and the impact on the AI market Microsoft's (MSFT.O) quarterly results were below expectations, wiping out about $340 billion in market value for the company and its rivals vying for leadership in artificial intelligence technology. Despite this, chipmakers such as Nvidia (NVDA.O) and others showed gains after Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O) reported results. The contrast between the chipmakers' gains and their biggest customers' declines highlights the disconnect in AI, with some investors wondering whether Wall Street's rally in AI has become too long-winded. Expert Comment: Wealth Transfer in AI Gil Luria, senior software analyst at DA Davidson, said: "Microsoft reported slower growth in its core cloud business but a significant increase in capital expenditures. This could be seen as a wealth transfer from Microsoft shareholders to Nvidia shareholders." In its earnings call, Microsoft said revenue from its Intelligent Cloud division, which includes the Azure platform, rose 19% to $28.5 billion in the quarter ended June 30. However, that was below analysts' expectations of $28.7 billion, according to LSEG. Thus, the current changes in market dynamics highlight the volatility and uncertainty in the technology sector, especially amid changes in demand for AI and cloud computing solutions. AI Spending: Tech Giants Under Pressure In the last quarter, Microsoft increased capital expenditure by 78% to $19 billion, including finance leases. This spending is related to the need to expand its global network of data centers to meet the growing demand for AI technologies. Investors are looking forward to the results of significant investments in AI Investors are very eager to see the results of significant investments in AI. Daniel Morgan, senior portfolio manager at Synovus Trust, said: "This has become a major concern. Stocks have risen strongly in the run-up to these reports." High expectations for tech companies have led to a jump in their share prices, which is now causing concern among investors. High Stakes and Rising Costs Rising AI costs added to concerns after Alphabet announced a significant increase in capital expenditures to support its generative AI technology. The higher-than-expected spending has raised concerns among investors who are concerned that the cost of building AI infrastructure could be higher than expected profits. Amid high expectations for tech giants, analysts are forecasting that S&P 500 tech companies will increase their combined profits by nearly 10%, according to LSEG I/B/E/S. Market Correction: Nasdaq Under Pressure However, concerns about skyrocketing AI costs that aren't being matched by similarly strong revenues have dragged the Nasdaq down 8% from its record high close on July 10. This reflects the overall market sentiment, with investors continuing to closely monitor the tech sector, balancing expectations for strong revenues with the reality of the costs of developing new technologies. Tech Stocks: Slip and Slip Ahead of Earnings Ahead of Microsoft's earnings, the Nasdaq has slipped more than 1%, reflecting investor caution. Other major tech stocks have also come under pressure amid the decline. However, despite the overall negative backdrop, AMD has posted a 6% gain, thanks to an upbeat third-quarter revenue outlook based on strong demand for its AI chips. Contrary trends: chipmakers on the rise Among other AI-related chipmakers, Broadcom (AVGO.O) posted a 1.4% gain, while Intel (INTC.O) and Qualcomm (QCOM.O) also increased their market value, gaining almost 1% each. This suggests that despite the overall decline in the tech sector, the chipmaker segment continues to attract investor interest. AI: Reality and Challenges Rishi Jaluria, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, noted: "We are still in a difficult macroeconomic environment. AI is indeed a significant factor, but it requires significant investment, which is clearly reflected in the capital expenditure numbers." This highlights the current challenges that companies face in the context of global economic uncertainty and the high costs of developing advanced technologies. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

XAU/USD. Review and Analysis Today, the price of gold attracts some buyers on the decline but remains constrained within the broader trading range of the previous day, staying below the round level of $2400. A weaker tone in the stock markets and geopolitical risks stemming from conflicts in the Middle East are the main factors supporting precious metal prices. Increasing expectations of the start of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle keep dollar bulls on the defensive below the two-week high reached on Monday, benefiting the non-yielding yellow metal. However, gold price growth will remain limited as traders prefer to wait for additional signals on the Fed's monetary policy path before making a firm decision on the short-term direction. Accordingly, attention will remain focused on the results of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which concludes on Wednesday. Along with important U.S. macroeconomic data, including Friday's nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report, this will influence the dynamics of the U.S. dollar and, consequently, the XAU/USD pair. Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for some follow-up buying before confirming that the recent pullback from the all-time high has ended. From a technical perspective, the overnight failure to gain acceptance above the round level of $2400 and the subsequent decline call for some caution before positioning for significant growth. Moreover, the oscillators on the daily chart have just begun to gain negative momentum, suggesting that the path of least resistance is likely downward. However, bearish traders will need to wait for a sustained break below the support at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), currently around the $2358 level, before opening new positions. Some follow-up selling below last week's swing low, around $2353, will confirm a negative outlook, dragging XAU/USD to the next relevant support at the $2325 level. The downward trajectory could extend further, potentially testing the round figure of $2300. On the opposite side, momentum above the $2400 mark is likely to face some resistance around $2415 before last week's swing high in the $2432 level. A sustained break beyond this would indicate that the corrective decline from the all-time high has run its course, paving the way for additional gains. Gold prices could then rise to intermediate resistance at $2469-2470 and challenge the record all-time high in the $2483-2484 zone. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Inflation data, tech gains lift Wall Street Wall Street's major indexes closed higher on Friday as investors turned their attention back to Big Tech. That followed a massive sell-off earlier in the week, and positive inflation data bolstered confidence that the Federal Reserve could soon begin cutting interest rates. While the S&P 500 (.SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) both posted gains, they failed to fully recover from their losses in the previous two sessions. Both indexes ended the week lower, marking their second straight weekly decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) ended the week higher, helped by gains in industrial conglomerate 3M (MMM.N). Shares of the company jumped 23%, their biggest daily percentage gain in decades, after the company raised the lower end of its full-year adjusted profit forecast. Investors spooked by recent volatility are bracing for earnings from major tech companies, a Federal Reserve meeting and employment data to be closely watched next week. These events could determine the near-term trajectory of U.S. stocks after a period of wild swings. A multi-month rally in Big Tech stocks stalled in the second half of July, triggering a sell-off. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes posted their biggest one-day losses since 2022 on Wednesday, following disappointing earnings reports from Tesla (TSLA.O) and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O). Five of the seven stocks in the so-called "Magnificent Seven" rose 2.7% on Friday. The exceptions were Tesla (TSLA.O) and Alphabet (GOOGL.O), whose weak results on Wednesday triggered a broad sell-off in the market. Both companies fell 0.2%, with Alphabet's shares hitting their lowest close since May 2. The release of more earnings reports from the "Magnificent Seven" next week could have a significant impact on the near-term outlook for the market, as they will determine its future direction. "What we see from Apple, Microsoft and Amazon.com next week will really determine whether the current stock rotation continues and which direction the market goes," said Greg Bootle, head of U.S. equity and derivatives strategy at BNP Paribas. Market rotation refers to investors moving from high-growth stocks with high valuations to less valued sectors such as mid- and small-cap stocks. This process appears to have accelerated in recent weeks, as small-cap indices such as the Russell 2000 (.RUT) and the S&P Small Cap 600 (.SPCY) hit their fourth weekly closing highs. The Russell 2000 (.RUT) posted its third straight weekly gain, its best three-week performance since August 2022. These small-cap, economically sensitive companies were supported on Friday by a modest rise in U.S. prices in June, highlighting weakening inflation and potentially opening the door for the Fed to begin easing policy as early as September. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting remained unchanged at about 88% following the release of PCE inflation data, according to CME FedWatch data. Traders continue to expect two rate cuts by December, LSEG data show. "We do think the robust economic data is supportive of broader trading," said Adam Hetts, global head of multi-asset at Janus Henderson, noting that small-cap stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 10% over the past month. The rise in trading activity has also helped lift cyclical sectors. All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index rose on Friday, led by industrials (.SPLRCI) and materials (.SPLRCM). On Friday, the S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 59.88 points, or 1.11%, to 5,459.10, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) rose 176.16 points, or 1.03%, to 17,357.88. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 654.27 points, or 1.64%, to 40,589.34. Over the past week, the Dow has gained 0.75%, while the S&P 500 has fallen 0.82% and the Nasdaq has fallen 2.08%. Among the companies that saw their shares rise on positive earnings reports were Deckers Outdoor (DECK.N), which jumped 6.3% after raising its full-year profit forecast, and oilfield services company Baker Hughes (BKR.O), which rose 5.8% after it beat second-quarter profit estimates. Norfolk Southern (NSC.N) shares rose 10.9%, its biggest one-day gain since March 2020, after the rail operator posted quarterly profit that beat Wall Street expectations, thanks to strong pricing for its services. Meanwhile, shares of medical equipment maker Dexcom (DXCM.O) plunged 40.6% after cutting its full-year revenue forecast, causing significant disappointment among investors. Trading volume on U.S. exchanges totaled 10.92 billion shares, below the 20-day average of 11.61 billion shares. While the S&P 500 is still just 5% below its all-time high and has gained nearly 14% this year, some investors are beginning to worry that Wall Street may be overly optimistic about future earnings growth. That could leave stocks vulnerable if companies fail to meet expectations in the coming months. Investors are also looking ahead to comments from the Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday to see if policymakers plan to cut interest rates, something many market participants expect in September. Employment data due later in the week, including the monthly labor market report, could provide a clearer picture of how severe the labor market slump is becoming. These events could have a significant impact on the future direction of the market, and investors will be watching closely to adjust their strategies and mitigate risk. "This is a critical time for the markets," said Bryant VanCronkhite, senior portfolio manager at Allspring. "Investors are starting to question why they are paying such high prices for AI-related companies, while the market is worried that the Fed may miss out on a soft landing, causing significant volatility." Recent weeks have shown a shift away from leading tech giants and toward sectors that have long been overlooked, including small-cap and value stocks like financial institutions. The Russell 1000 Value Index has gained more than 3% over the past month, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index has fallen nearly 3%. The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index has gained nearly 9% over the period, while the S&P 500 has lost more than 1%. Markets are currently fairly certain that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates at its September meeting, with a 66 basis point cut forecast by year-end, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Expected employment data due later this week could change those forecasts. If the data shows the economy is slowing more quickly, the odds of a rate cut could increase. Conversely, if employment picks up, it could signal an economic recovery, which could in turn impact the Fed's decisions. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

US Election: How Uncertainty Impacted Markets and Trillions of Dollars Escaped from Stocks "Markets have a strong aversion to uncertainty, and with the polls close to 50-50, it's as uncertain as it gets," said Ross Yarrow, managing director of U.S. equities at investment bank Baird. Wall Street's S&P 500 (.SPX) fell 2.3% on Wednesday, its biggest one-day loss since December 2022, as Big Tech, which accounts for a significant portion of U.S. and global indexes, fell. The decline continued Thursday morning, spreading to European markets. Investors, wary of further selling, have turned to small-cap stocks, UK assets and gold as possible safe havens. Of particular concern to global markets is the possibility that competition for votes on big spending plans could lead to potential turmoil in the US debt market, weighing on global stocks and bonds whose value depends on long-term Treasury yields. The 30-year US Treasury yield rose above the two-year yield last week as big investors began to shy away from long-term US credit risk as the budget deficit widened to nearly $2 trillion. Emerging market stocks and bonds have come under pressure from President Trump's proposed tariff hikes, said Adam Norris, a multi-manager at Columbia Threadneedle. Higher tariffs are having a negative impact on the economies and currencies of exporting countries. Stock market volatility (.VIX) has started to rise from its lows as traders shift between stock sectors based on the changing election odds. Tech stocks from the U.S. to Amsterdam have felt the pressure after Trump proposed earlier this month to cut U.S. support for Taiwan, a key link in the chip supply chain. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 index of U.S. small-caps (.RUT) has risen on expectations that Trump's growth policies will favor domestically focused companies over global tech giants. The rotation could end, however, if tech or consumer stocks heavily dependent on Chinese supply chains rise as Trump falls in the polls. Benjamin Mehlman, chief investment officer at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management, expressed caution on European exporters due to potential tariff risks if Trump wins, preferring to invest in smaller, less global European companies. Now on to global financial news. More than $3 trillion has been pulled out of global equities in recent days. Stock markets plunged into a multi-trillion-dollar slump on Thursday as a slide in global tech stocks sent investors seeking refuge in traditionally safe havens like bonds, the yen and the Swiss franc. Europe's biggest bourses opened the day down more than 1% as traders in Europe and Asia reacted to the Nasdaq's worst day since 2022 (.IXIC) on Wednesday following disappointing earnings reports from giants Alphabet and Tesla. Chinese stocks, iron ore and oil prices also extended their losses after a surprise move by China's central bank to cut long-term interest rates added to concerns about the world's second-largest economy. The sell-off in stocks has increased bets on interest rate cuts around the world, with futures pointing to a 100% chance of Federal Reserve easing in September. A sharp rise in market volatility (.VIX) added pressure on carry trades, sending the U.S. dollar down 0.7% to 152.78 yen on Thursday. MSCI's broadest index of global shares (.MIWD00000PUS) fell 1%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 3.3%, partly due to an 11% plunge in Nissan Motor (7201.T) after the company reported a 99% drop in quarterly profit. Taiwan (.TWII) markets remained closed for a second day due to a typhoon. Chinese blue-chip stocks (.CSI300) fell 0.9%, while the Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC) also fell 0.9%, hitting a five-month low. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (.HSI) fell 1.7%, unhelped by Beijing's latest round of economic easing. On Wall Street, the Nasdaq (.IXIC) lost nearly 4% as weak earnings results from Alphabet and Tesla dented investor confidence in the already lofty valuations of Big Tech stocks. The decline added to recent market volatility, with the Wall Street Fear Index (.VIX) hitting a three-month high. Investors sought safety in cash and highly liquid short-term debt as two-year U.S. Treasury yields fell to their lowest in nearly six months on Wednesday. "There are a lot of factors weighing on equity markets right now," said Jeff Yu, senior currency and macro strategist at BNY Mellon in London. He also pointed to declining auto sales in the US, Europe and Japan, as well as recent interest rate moves in China, as clear signs of weakening global consumer demand. Another big factor was the strengthening of the yen, which rose more than 1% to its highest in 2 1/2 months, ahead of a Bank of Japan meeting next week to discuss whether to raise interest rates. The Swiss franc also strengthened 0.5% to 0.88 per dollar, adding 0.7% overnight. Shorter-term bonds extended gains, helped by comments from former New York Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley that the central bank should cut rates, preferably at its policy meeting next week. The yield on two-year Treasury notes fell another 3 basis points to 4.3894%, after falling 4 basis points on Wednesday. Ten-year Treasury yields also fell 2 basis points to 4.2622% on Thursday. In commodities, iron ore prices fell nearly 1% on lingering concerns about China's economy. Copper futures fell 1.2%, while oil prices remained near six-week lows. Brent crude futures fell 0.5% to just over $81 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also fell 0.5% to $77.23 a barrel. Gold prices fell 1% to $2,373.62 an ounce. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Tech Profits Fail to Save Wall Street from Declines Wall Street's major indices ended the session marginally lower on Tuesday, erasing modest intraday gains in the final minutes of trading as investors looked to fresh earnings reports from Alphabet (GOOGL.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O). The so-called "Magnificent Seven" companies reported results after the market closed, posting positive financial results for the second quarter. Tesla surprised analysts with an unexpected revenue gain, delivering more cars than expected on the back of price cuts and incentives. Meanwhile, Alphabet beat revenue estimates, helped by higher digital ad sales and strong demand for its cloud services. However, ahead of the earnings call, Tesla shares fell 2%, while Google's parent company rose 0.1%. The tech giants' financial results are critical to understanding whether they can sustain their record growth in 2024 or whether U.S. stocks are overvalued. Investors are also concerned about whether the shift away from mega-caps to less-efficient sectors will continue. The Russell 2000 small-cap (.RUT) rose 1% on the day. "We're focusing on earnings because that's what's going to be the story this week and next, and the market's reaction to those numbers will be very telling," said Jack Janasiewicz, chief portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers. Speaking about the shift in focus in smaller-cap stocks, the expert added: "The jury is still out on this and we need more evidence that this is sustainable, which again comes down to earnings." Big-cap stocks initially supported the markets on Tuesday, with all three benchmark indexes in positive territory. However, while the likes of Apple (AAPL.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O) and Amazon.com (AMZN.O) rose between 0.3% and 2.1%, the overall market rally slowed in the afternoon, leading to a slight decline in the final results. Stock markets were also under pressure from disappointing earnings from big-name companies. United Parcel Service (UPS.N), a leading indicator of the health of the global economy, fell 12.1% after earnings fell short of expectations amid weaker delivery demand and rising labor costs. UPS shares ended the day at their lowest in four years. General Motors (GM.N) fell 6.4% despite reporting strong second-quarter results and raising its full-year profit forecast. Comcast (CMCSA.O) lost 2.6% after disappointing revenue data. NXP Semiconductors (NXPI.O) fell 7.6% after reporting third-quarter revenue that missed expectations, dragging the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor (.SOX) index down 1.5%. Spotify (SPOT.N) jumped 12% after reporting record quarterly profit that slightly beat analysts' expectations. Coca-Cola (KO.N) also rose 0.3% after raising its full-year sales and profit forecasts. Of the first 74 S&P 500 companies to report quarterly results this season, 81.1% beat estimates, according to LSEG. Yanasevich noted that while it's too early to draw definitive conclusions, the current earnings call shows that companies that miss expectations are suffering greatly, even if their results are generally positive. High market prices and expectations don't always guarantee significant stock gains. "If your results don't meet expectations, the punishment may be more severe given current market conditions," he added. The S&P 500 (.SPX) fell 8.67 points, or 0.16%, to 5,555.74. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) fell 10.22 points, or 0.06%, to 17,997.35. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) lost 57.35 points, or 0.14%, to 40,358.09. Eight of the S&P's 11 major sectors ended the day in the red, with energy (.SPNY) the worst performer, down 1.6% as U.S. oil prices fell to a six-week low. Trading volume on U.S. exchanges totaled 10.45 billion shares, below the 20-day average of 11.33 billion. The Federal Reserve's core consumer spending index, the benchmark inflation gauge, is due out Friday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 0.9 basis point to 4.251%. "The market is now at a stage where we need real results to confirm the rally," said Wasif Latif, chief investment officer at Sarmaya Partners. The MSCI World Share Index (.MIWD00000PUS) was down 0.06% at 816.37. On Wall Street, all three major indexes gave up their morning gains to end lower, led by losses in energy and utilities. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) was up 0.13%, led by gains in tech. In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) ended 0.30% higher at 566.92. "We have seen a strong rally this year, with a lot of positives already built into it, including earnings and rate cuts," Latif added. Vice President Kamala Harris will campaign in the battleground state of Wisconsin on Tuesday after winning the majority of delegates to the Democratic National Convention, strengthening her position as the party's presumptive nominee. The U.S. dollar was broadly stronger, while the yen extended gains against the greenback for a second straight day. The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies, rose 0.14% to 104.45. The euro was down 0.37% at $1.0849, while the yen gained 0.9% against the dollar to 155.63 yen per dollar. Crude oil prices fell about 2% to a six-week low on rising expectations for a Gaza ceasefire and growing concerns about Chinese demand. Brent crude futures were down 1.7% to settle at $81.01 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 1.8% to settle at $76.96 a barrel. Gold was up, with spot prices up 0.43% to $2,407.87 an ounce. U.S. gold futures were also up 0.43% to settle at $2,402.40 an ounce. Bitcoin, which had earlier risen on expectations that a potential Trump administration would be more lenient on cryptocurrency regulations, was down 3.60% to $65,698. Ethereum was also down 0.48% to settle at $3,473. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 23, 2024 Without any economic or political news, the market has literally come to a standstill. Today's situation is somewhat similar, as aside from the secondary housing market data, the economic calendar is almost empty. Moreover, housing reports have a feeble impact. However, according to multiple statements, US President Joe Biden may address the nation today. He is expected to officiallyendorse Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party candidate. It seems that the incumbent vice president will be the one to challenge Donald Trump. The key point here is that the Democratic Party has quickly settled on its candidate, which significantly reduces political risks. This could potentially support the dollar. The EUR/USD pair has stalled just below the 1.0900 level, while the corrective cycle from the lower range of the psychological level of 1.0950/1.1000 remains intact. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI indicator is moving in the lower area, indicating an increase in the volume of short positions on the euro. As for the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the lines are intertwined, meaning that the upward cycle is slowing down. Outlook To support the bearish bias, the quote must settle below the 1.0860 level. In this scenario, the euro could move towards the 1.0800 level. The bullish scenario will come into play if the price returns above the 1.0900 level. Complex indicator analysis suggests a correction in the short-term and intraday time frames. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv