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EUR/USD. May 24, 2021 | The pair is in the range of 1.2150-1.2250 At the beginning of the new trading week, the euro continues to trade in the range of 1.2150-1.2250. The current price of the EUR/USD pair is 1.2200. The European currency was supported by the publication of the composite index of business activity (PMI) in industry and services of 19 eurozone countries in May. According to preliminary estimates, the indicator rose to 56.9 points in May from 53.8 points in April. At the same time, analysts had expected the indicator to rise to 55.1 points. Such figures became a record for three years and three months. The index of business activity in the service sector of the euro zone in May, according to preliminary estimates, rose to 55.1 points against 50.5 points in April. Experts predicted growth to 52.3 points. It is worth noting that many financial institutions are beginning to revise their forecasts for the euro area. For example, the Bundesbank believes that Germany will reach pre-pandemic levels in the fall of this year, and consumer prices may rise by 4%.

EUR/USD. May 20, 2021 | Euro is recovering after yesterday's drawdown The EUR/USD pair is recovering its positions on Thursday after yesterday's drawdown to the level of 1.2150. The current quote for the pair is 1.2190. Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve released the minutes of the last meeting. The document says that the US economy is still very far from the regulator's goals, and supply problems continue to impede its recovery. At the same time, it was noted that economic activity has nevertheless increased sharply recently. Regarding the state of the labor market, the Federal Reserve is confident that the growth rates of employment in certain sectors have become lower than they were before. The global outlook for inflation has not changed, and core inflation remains weak and insignificant. The US dollar weakened somewhat after the publication of the minutes, as the regulator did not clearly indicate its position on stimulating and supporting the economy. As a result, there were rumors in the market that a strong labor market report for May could be a signal for a $ 120 billion reduction in the asset purchase program in June. At the same time, the European currency is supported by the improved prospects for the economic recovery of the eurozone. If the situation continues to improve, the ECB may consider the possibility of reducing the volume of the quantitative easing program at the end of this year.

Brent. May 19, 2021 | Oil declines after local highs Oil prices are falling for the second day in a row amid concerns about lower demand due to a new wave of coronavirus in Asia. Additional pressure on Brent quotes is exerted by fears that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates due to rising inflation, which may limit further economic growth. On Wednesday, the price of «black gold» fell to $67.38 per barrel, although on Monday Brent was trading above $70. This growth was driven by optimism about the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the United States and Europe. However, it did not last long as India, Taiwan, Vietnam and Thailand reported a sharp spike in Covid cases. Moreover, the uncertainty due to inflation has also forced investors to withdraw from riskier assets such as oil. Analysts note that the US Federal Reserve may raise rates due to fears of inflation, thereby affecting growth prospects and demand for commodities. A report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) was released yesterday, according to which US oil inventories rose by 620 thousand barrels, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell sharply last week. Today investors are awaiting the release of similar data on reserves from the US Energy Information Administration. GBP/USD. May 19, 2021 | Sterling is correcting after strong growth Yesterday was marked by a sharp rise in the pound sterling to the level of 1.4220. However, today the GBP/USD pair started to decline to the level of 1.4160. The British currency received support amid the improvement in the epidemiological situation in the UK, where quarantine restrictions have been significantly eased since May 17. An additional positive was brought by economic statistics, according to which, in April, the consumer price index rose by 0.6%, which coincided with expectations, and the producer purchase price index rose by 1.2%, which turned out to be better than the 1.1% forecast. At the same time, the pressure on the dollar was exerted yesterday by data on construction in the United States: the number of permits for building houses issued in April amounted to 1.76 million, while expectations were 1.77 million. Today, the American currency is strengthening as part of the correction and in anticipation of the evening publication of the FOMC minutes. The pound sterling still has strong upside potential as economic data show a strengthening UK economy: the UK labor market is on the rise – 84,000 new jobs were created in March, benefits applications fell by 15,000 and unemployment fell from 4.9% to 4.8%.

Brent. 18.05 | Oil market reached new highs The oil market again demonstrates significant growth: Brent quotes rose today to $70 per barrel. The prices for «black gold» are supported by the improved forecasts for the demand for energy resources, despite the rather weak statistics from the USA and China. For example, in the Celestial Empire, the report on retail sales showed an increase of 17.7%, which is significantly worse than the expected 24.9%. Investors are quite optimistic, expecting that demand this year will still reach its peaks in the second half of the year. Similar forecasts were presented to OPEC and the International Energy Agency. It should be noted that analysts ignored the difficult epidemiological situation in India, the world's third largest oil importer. In addition to fundamental factors, Brent quotes are supported by the decline in the US dollar. Greenback is being sold amid the Fed's wait-and-see attitude, as well as weak US macroeconomic reporting. Recent reports indicate that the US economy will not recover as fast as previous forecasts suggested.

GBP/USD. May 17, 2021 | Sterling weakly declines after rising to 1.41 The British pound suspended its gains in the 1.4100 area and the GBP/USD pair bounced back to 1.4090. The pound is under pressure from concerns about new coronavirus outbreaks in the country. On Friday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that the weakening of the lockdown is in question due to the risk of the spread of the Indian strain of the coronavirus. Earlier, the dynamics of the dollar was influenced by economic reports from the University of Michigan: the consumer expectations index in May fell from 82.7 to 77.6 points, while the forecast assumed an increase to 85 points. The consumer sentiment index was 82.8 points against the forecast of 90.4 points. The index of current conditions fell from 97.2 to 90.8 points, experts had expected an increase to 99.6 points. Today the macroeconomic calendar is empty. Only the statements of the Bank of England and FOMC representatives can arouse interest. The RSI indicator weakly declines from the neutral zone, which indicates further moderate weakening of the pound sterling. GBP/USD. May 14, 2021 | Sterling rises moderately towards 1.4100 The British currency continues to show signs of strengthening against the US dollar, recovering from 1.40 to 1.41. The current quote for the GBP/USD pair is 1.4080. The economic calendar for the UK is empty today, all investors' attention will be drawn to the statistics from the US. In particular, we are waiting for a report on retail sales, data on imports and exports, as well as on industrial production in April. Of particular interest will be the consumer expectations and sentiment index from the University of Michigan in May. In general, the pound sterling retains potential for growth, as the growth of the UK economy in March was better than forecasted: the economy grew by 2.1% compared to the previous month, while growth was expected by 1.5%. Moreover, yesterday the chief economist of the Bank of England Andrew Haldane said that inflation in the UK will exceed 2% by the end of 2021. He also noted that it is quite possible to expect double-digit GDP growth over the year. During the day, market participants will analyze statistics from the US, which will allow the GBP/USD pair to determine the direction of movement before the weekend.

EUR/USD. May 13, 2021 | Dollar remains strong after inflation data The EUR/USD pair has weakened noticeably after the release of yesterday's statistics on inflation in the US. The current quote for the pair is 1.2050. According to the US Department of Labor, in April, consumer prices rose at their most in almost 12 years due to increased demand amid the opening of the economy. Excluding food and energy prices, consumer prices rose 0.9%, the highest since April 1982. Annualized inflation rose to 4.2%, the highest since 2008. There is a logical reason for this rise in prices: as the American economy recovers, the consumer is faced with a noticeably reduced supply, which pushes prices up. Additional pressure on the euro was exerted by macroeconomic reports from the eurozone. According to Eurostat, industrial production in the region rose 0.1% in March, after falling 1.2% a month earlier. Experts forecast an increase of 0.7%. On an annualized basis, the indicator grew by 10.9% against the forecast of 11.6%. Today we should pay attention to the report on the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits and the producer price index in the United States.

EUR/USD. May 12, 2021 | Euro is correcting after strong growth The EUR/USD pair declines slightly on Wednesday after a sharp rise to the level of 1.2180. The current quotation of the asset is 1.2125. The statistics from the eurozone published the day before, as a whole, pleased investors: the index of sentiment in German business circles in May rose to 84.4 points from the previous 70.7. The forecast assumed a rise to 72.0 points. The same indicator for the entire euro area soared to the level of 84.0 points from the previous 66.3. Such data speaks about the attenuation of the third wave of coronavirus in Europe and has a positive effect on business prospects. Today you should pay attention to the report on the volume of industrial production in the eurozone for March. The indicator came out worse than expected, rising only 0.1% against expectations of 0.7% growth. In the US, the most anticipated indicator of the week will be published – the consumer price index for April. Median forecasts assume only 0.2% MoM gain is possible after the 0.6% rise in March. If the data is in line with expectations, the dollar will have a chance to strengthen and return to the area below 1.21. GBP/USD. May 12, 2021 | The pound sterling breaks all records The pound sterling remains the leader of the foreign exchange market, demonstrating a sharp rise to 1.4170, which was the highest since the end of February. In general, the pair is approaching the level of 1.42 – the last time such values of the British currency rate were recorded in April 2018. The pound received strong support on the results of the regional elections. Scottish National Party SNP won 64 seats in the Scottish Parliament, one less for the majority. Analysts note that calls for a referendum on independence will continue, but this is unlikely to lead to increased political risks for the pound sterling. Additional positive was brought by the report from the BRC chain: the volume of retail sales in April on an annualized basis increased by 39.6% after increasing by 20.3% a month earlier. A busy news day awaits the UK today. The country's GDP contracted by 1.5% on a quarterly basis (which turned out to be better than the forecast of -1.6%). Industrial production statistics in March showed an increase in the indicator by 1.8% (against the forecast of growth by 1%). The data on the trade balance reflected a decrease of 6.55 billion. It can be said that the strong statistics were the result of successful mass vaccinations and the relaxation of quarantines.

EUR/USD. May 11, 2021 | Dollar continues to decline after Friday's Payrolls report The US dollar accelerated its decline after the release of Friday's Non-farm Payrolls report, according to which the number of new jobs created was almost 25% lower than forecasted – 266 thousand against 1 million. The unemployment rate rose from 6% to 6.1%. The latest statistics turned out to be an unexpected shock for market participants, and the quotes of the EUR/USD pair rose to the level of 1.2180. In total, during the pandemic, the American economy lost 22 million jobs, and about 8 million are still not restored. Today the pair continues to fluctuate slightly below the 1.22 level. The economic calendar is of little interest. All market participants' attention is directed to the upcoming statistics: on Wednesday the US will publish statistics on consumer prices, on Friday – on retail sales. The oil market on May 11, 2021 Brent quotes on Tuesday decline from the area of local highs above $69 per barrel. The current price of the asset is $67.50 per barrel. Black gold is declining amid the gradual reopening of the Colonial Pipeline Co. pipeline system, which suspended operations last Friday due to a hacker attack. This pipeline system is the main source of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel supplies to the US East Coast. The rapid spread of the coronavirus in India continues to put additional pressure on investor sentiment. The government of the country came face to face with the need to introduce a harsh isolation regime. In the near future, oil prices can only be supported by data on crude oil reserves in the United States. Analysts expect that statistics from the Ministry of Energy (May 12) will show a decrease in reserves by 2.3 million barrels per week. Gasoline stocks are expected to fall by about 400,000 barrels. Today you should pay attention to the monthly OPEC report, which will include data on production in April.

May 07 | USD / CHF technical analysis: H4 chart, Pivot levels The US dollar against the Swiss franc at today's trading has rewritten the minimum since February 26 at around 0.9057. Bouncing off the lows, the USD / CHF price is correcting towards the daily pivot level. The medium-term trend is directed downwards, therefore, upon completion of the correction, it is more likely that a further decline can be predicted, but, most likely, this will happen already next week. Daily Pivot - 0.9094; Daily Resistance 1 - 0.9119, DR2 - 0.9169, DR3 - 0.9194; Daily Support 1 - 0.9044, DS2 - 0.9019, DS3 - 0.8968. Weekly Pivot - 0.9129; Weekly Resistance 1 - 0.9180, WR2 - 0.9231, WR3 - 0.9281; Weekly Support 1 - 0.9078, WS2 - 0.9028, WS3 - 0.8977. Monthly Pivot - 0.9226.

GBP/USD. 06.05 | The pair cannot decide on the direction of movement The GBP/USD pair on Thursday started to rise to 1.3940 after a two-day flat at 1.3900. Today is rich in various events in the UK: attention should be paid to the elections in Scotland, the results of the meeting of the Bank of England and the publication of important economic reports. The results of the parliamentary elections in Scotland will determine the holding of a repeated referendum on independence from Great Britain. The victory of the ruling national party will speed up the exit of Scotland from the United Kingdom, but this is unlikely to have a strong impact on the pound rate, since the issue of independence will be resolved for several years. The meeting of the Bank of England is of no small importance today. The regulator decided to keep the base interest rate at 0.1%, and the volume of asset repurchases from the market – at 895 billion pounds. The redemption of government bonds is 875 billion pounds, and the volume of redemption of corporate bonds remained at 20 billion pounds. Short-term support for the sterling today was provided by data on business activity in the service sector in April in the UK: the indicator rose to 61.0 against the forecast of growth to 60.1 points. In the US today, it is worth paying attention to the publication of the number of applications for unemployment benefits: the report showed that the number of applications fell better than forecast, to 498 thousand. This gave the US dollar some support, which allowed the GBP/USD pair to return to the 1.39 level.

EUR/USD. May 4, 2021 | The dollar strengthened and returned to the level of 1.20 On Tuesday, the dollar began to recover and reached the level of 1.20. The US currency is supported by a positive fundamental background: high rates of vaccinations in the US, direct payments to the population and easing of restrictions. The main problem today is that the dollar retains its status as a safe haven currency. Since the beginning of the year, the United States has been ahead of other countries in terms of economic recovery, but now Europe is showing significant progress in vaccinations and plans to ease restrictions. And global growth tends to be more favorable for high beta currencies than safe haven currencies. Therefore, together with the lifting of restrictions, the demand for the euro will return. Yesterday was published data on business activity in the US manufacturing sector, which turned out to be much worse than forecasted. Economists had expected the index to rise from 64.7 to 65, but in April it fell to 60.7 points. And even these statistics did not allow the dollar to fall. Analysts say the dollar is rising mainly on expectations of a potentially strong Payroll employment report. Today during the day, the EUR/USD pair will moderately rise from the level of 1.20.

EUR/USD. May 3, 2021 | The US dollar started the week on a minor note The US dollar ended April on a positive note, but on the first Monday in May, the american currency weakened to 1.2050. The main influence on the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair is provided by macroeconomic publications from the USA and the Eurozone. At the end of last week, the US released data on personal income and spending of Americans in March. Revenues rose 21.1% m/m against the forecast of a rise of 20.1% and the previous decline of 7%. Expenses, in turn, increased by 4.2% on the expectation of an increase of 4.3% m/m and the previous decline of 1.0%. It should be noted that such a rapid growth in income is the result of cash payments to the population. Additional support to the dollar was provided by the final value of the consumer confidence index in the US from the University of Michigan: in April the indicator rose to 88.3 points against the forecast of an increase to 87.3 and the previous value of 86.5 points. The European currency was supported this morning by the statistics on the volume of retail sales in Germany in March: in monthly terms the indicator increased by 7.7% against the forecast of growth of only 3%. The annual rate rose 11% after falling 6.6% in February. At the same time, the indexes of business activity in the manufacturing sectors of the eurozone and Germany for April disappointed the markets, falling short of forecasts. The United States will also publish PMI in the evening. In addition, there will be data on construction costs and the price paid index. And also the head of the US Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell will make a speech.

EUR/USD. April 30, 2021 | The pair is consolidating below the 1.21 level On Friday, the EUR/USD pair started to decline, reaching the level of 1.2075. The dollar received support from data on US GDP, whose growth exceeded analysts' forecasts: from January to March, the economy grew by 6.4% versus 4.3% a quarter earlier. The results of the meeting of the Federal Reserve System showed that the American regulator is not yet ready to curtail incentives, despite the optimism about the US economy. The Fed still expects when the country's macroeconomic indicators begin to show a stable increase. Today you should pay attention to the data on GDP in Germany for the first quarter. The financials disappointed investors as the index fell 1.7% qoq, while analysts had forecast a decline of only 1.5%. On an annualized basis, the German economy contracted 3.3%, better than forecast for a decline of 3.6%. The GDP of the entire eurozone exceeded forecasts: the region's economy contracted by 0.6% qoq (forecast -0.8%). In annual terms, the economy contracted by 1.8% (forecast 2.0%). Thus, the EUR / USD pair is consolidating under the influence of ambiguous statistics. The RSI indicator is corrected to the neutral zone, which indicates the formation of a flat below the 1.2100 level.

EUR/USD. April 29, 2021 | Dollar weakened after the US Federal Reserve meeting On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair started to rise sharply and reached the level of 1.2150. The US dollar was pressured by the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting and the subsequent speech by the head of the regulator Jerome Powell. The US Federal Reserve System has left the interest rate unchanged in the target range of 0-0.25% per annum. In addition, the Fed kept the volume of purchases of Treasury bonds in the amount of $80 billion monthly, as well as the purchase of $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities unchanged. The regulator noted that it will continue to buy back bonds until progress is made on GDP and inflation. The general tone of the Central Bank's comments turned out to be restrained and soft, which put pressure on the dollar's position. Jerome Powell said the economic recovery is still fragile and the coronavirus situation remains worrisome. The macroeconomic calendar today is presented by data on US GDP for the first quarter of the year and the number of applications for unemployment benefits. The Eurozone will share statistics on inflation in Germany in April. Brent. April 28, 2021 | Oil rises amid improved forecasts for global demand Oil prices shifted to growth on the back of optimistic forecasts for global demand. The current Brent quotation is $66.30 per barrel. At the same time, the risks, in the form of the rapid spread of the coronavirus in India and the exceeding expectations of the growth of oil reserves in the United States, limit the rise in prices. Today, the joint technical committee of OPEC+ has kept the forecast for the growth of global oil demand in 2021 at the level of 6 million barrels per day. Moreover, the organization intends to adhere to plans for a phased release of production restrictions from May to July, which also strengthens producers' confidence in a recovery in global demand. Analysts at Goldman Sachs bank expect the sharpest jump in oil demand ever – an increase of 5.2 million barrels per day over the next half year. And the easing of restrictions on movement between the countries in May will lead to a recovery in global demand for jet fuel by 1.5 million barrels per day. Yesterday was published a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API), according to which US oil reserves unexpectedly rose by 4.3 million barrels. Today you should pay attention to a similar report from the US Department of Energy. Analysts predict an increase in reserves by 650 thousand barrels. EUR/USD. April 28, 2021 | The pair consolidates under 1.21 in anticipation of the Fed meeting results Today the EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate below the 1.2100 level ahead of the Fed meeting. The current price of the instrument is 1.2070. It is unlikely that the quotes will be active until the results of the meeting are announced. Yesterday in the US was published statistics on the house price index for February: the indicator showed an increase of 0.9 m/m against the forecast of growth of 1.0% m/m. A report from the Conference Board was also presented, according to which the consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose sharply in April and amounted to 121.7 points against the forecast of growth to 113.1. The March indicator was marked at the level of 109.0 points. The current value of the indicator has become the highest in 14 months. Today the macroeconomic calendar is empty, all the attention of market participants is focused on the results of the meeting of the Federal Reserve System and its decision on the rate and further monetary policy.

Brent. April 27, 2021 | Oil rises in anticipation of OPEC meeting On Tuesday, Brent quotes are growing moderately, recovering to the level of $65.70 per barrel. Oil prices were supported by the decision of OPEC+ to raise the short-term forecast of world oil demand growth to 6 million barrels per day from the March estimate of 5.6 million. Today, a day ahead of schedule, a meeting of the OPEC ministerial monitoring committee will take place. OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo in his recent speech noted that the oil market is experiencing a significant improvement in prospects, and the excess oil reserves formed in the world market during the pandemic will completely disappear by the end of this quarter. At the same time, many risks remain relevant, primarily associated with the deterioration of the epidemiological situation in India, Japan and a number of other regions. India is one of the largest oil importers, so the introduction of additional quarantine restrictions will inevitably impede the recovery in demand for raw materials. EUR/USD. April 27, 2021 | Euro corrected after reaching local highs The US dollar is showing signs of strengthening against the euro, reaching 1.2050. The American currency is supported by expectations of the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve System. Market participants assume that the regulator will confirm its readiness to continue buying back assets in the same volumes in order to achieve maximum employment and price stability. However, many also admit that even before the end of this year, the Fed is announcing plans to gradually reduce monthly asset repurchases (currently the amount is $120 billion), as the US economy shows signs of a rapid recovery from the Covid pandemic. Also, the regulator is not expected to change the base rate and monetary policy parameters. The main attention of traders on Wednesday will be attracted by the press conference of the head of the Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell, from whom they expect signals about when the Fed may begin to cut stimulus. Today the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty. It is worth paying attention only to the CB consumer confidence index in the USA. Analysts expect a slight increase in the indicator.

EUR/USD. April 26, 2021 | The bulls broke through the 1.2100 level EUR/USD looks still strong on Monday, despite a slight correction. The current quotation of the euro is 1.2090, and the recent maximum was marked at 1.2115. The main support for the euro rate is the growing interest of investors in risky assets. An additional positive was the Friday statistics on business activity in the euro area: the PMI index in the service sector in April rose to 50.3 points against the previous value of 49.6. Business activity in the manufacturing sector increased to 63.3 points from the previous 62.5. At the same time, the indicators of Germany, the largest economy in Europe, disappointed the markets: the index of business activity in the service sector in April fell to 50.1 points from 51.5 earlier, and in manufacturing – fell to 66.4 points from 66.6 in March. And today's IFO business climate index also fell short of forecasts, rising only to 96.8 points (forecast – 97.8). At the end of last week, the US also shared data on business activity. The PMI index in the manufacturing sector from Markit in April strengthened to 60.6 points from the previous 59.1 points, in the non-manufacturing sector – rose to 63.1 points from 60.4 points in March. Today we should pay attention to the report on orders for durable goods in the US in March. Forecasts assume an increase of 2.5% m/m after a decline of 1.2% m/m in February.

GBP/USD. April 22, 2021 | Sterling shows correction from 1,40 The British pound has suspended its decline at 1.3900. On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair is showing consolidation, however the RSI indicator is still directed downward, which signals further weakening of the pound sterling. The statistics released the day before showed that inflation in the UK in March rose by 0.7% YoY, while the forecast assumed an increase of 0.8% y/y. In February, the consumer price index grew by 0.4% y/y. Core inflation in the country accelerated to 1.1% y/y, which coincided with market expectations. Experts expect the UK CPI to rise as electricity bills rise and fuel prices rise. It can be expected that inflation in the UK will reach 2.0% by the end of this year. Today, the UK economic calendar is empty, so you should pay attention to the data from the US on the number of applications for unemployment benefits. Analysts predict an increase in the indicator to 617 thousand from the previous level of 576 thousand.

GBP/USD. April 22, 2021 | Sterling shows correction from 1,40 The British pound has suspended its decline at 1.3900. On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair is showing consolidation, however the RSI indicator is still directed downward, which signals further weakening of the pound sterling. The statistics released the day before showed that inflation in the UK in March rose by 0.7% YoY, while the forecast assumed an increase of 0.8% y/y. In February, the consumer price index grew by 0.4% y/y. Core inflation in the country accelerated to 1.1% y/y, which coincided with market expectations. Experts expect the UK CPI to rise as electricity bills rise and fuel prices rise. It can be expected that inflation in the UK will reach 2.0% by the end of this year. Today, the UK economic calendar is empty, so you should pay attention to the data from the US on the number of applications for unemployment benefits. Analysts predict an increase in the indicator to 617 thousand from the previous level of 576 thousand.

GBP/USD. April 21, 2021 | Sterling declines from the highs On Wednesday morning, the British pound is correcting against the dollar, declining from the area of recent highs at 1.4000. The current quote for the GBP/USD pair is 1.3930. Sterling is declining, despite the rather strong statistics on the labor market in the UK. The unemployment rate fell in February to 4.9% against 5.0% earlier. The number of claims for unemployment benefits in March increased by 10.1 thousand, while in February the figure increased by 67.3 thousand. The forecast assumed an increase of 24.5 thousand. Experts note that support to the employment sector is provided by a government program that provides for the payment of increased and guaranteed unemployment benefits. The program will run until the end of September 2021. The UK continues to publish macroeconomic reports today. Particular attention should be paid to the data on inflation in March, where the indicator accelerated to 0.7% y/y against the previous value of 0.4%. However, this turned out to be below the forecast for growth to 0.8%. Also today will be a speech by the head of the Bank of England Bailey.

EUR/USD. April 20, 2021 | Euro is trying to reach the level of 1.21 The US dollar continues to fall in price against the euro, approaching 1.2100. The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.2070. The American currency is declining even despite the growth of government bond yields, strong data on employment and retail sales. At the same time, the euro was supported by an increase in the forecast of the investment bank Goldman Sachs, whose analysts adjusted the three-month target for the EUR/USD pair from 1.21 to 1.25. The outlook was upgraded amid expectations that the situation in the Eurozone will improve. The key event for the euro/dollar pair will be the ECB meeting on Thursday. Analysts expect that rates this time around are likely to remain near the lows, as they have throughout 2021. The regulator's comments on the rapid growth of the consumer price index in Europe and the yield on government bonds will be of much greater interest. But, in general, market participants do not expect any surprises or shocks. Today the macroeconomic calendar is not rich in events, so investors have the opportunity to calmly watch what is happening on the market and prepare for the ECB meeting.

EUR/USD. April 19, 2021 | Euro has reached 1.2040 EUR/USD is showing strong gains at the start of the new trading week, reaching 1.2040. The macroeconomic calendar is empty today, so the main factor behind the weakening of the US dollar is still the decline in the yield on 10-year US government bonds. At the same time, even positive statistics on retail sales in the United States did not help the greenback improve its positions in a pair with the euro. As a reminder, last week a report was published, according to which retail sales in March rose sharply by 9.8% m/m after falling by 2.7% m/m in February. The forecast assumed an increase of 5.8% m/m. The main event of this week will be the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday. The regulator must make a decision on the rate (no changes are expected), as well as comment on further policy and the epidemiological situation in Europe. There are not many American statistics this week: it is worth paying attention to the data on sales of secondary housing and new buildings in March, as well as the parameters of the leading indicators index last month. In addition, there are preliminary data on PMIs in the manufacturing and services sectors from Markit. The eurozone, in turn, will also provide preliminary data on PMIs in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors for April. EUR/USD. April 16, 2021 | Euro keeps trying to reach the level of 1.20 The EUR/USD pair continues attempts to reach the 1.2000 level. The current quote for the pair is 1.1980. Yesterday's statistics from the US was rather mixed. Retail sales rose sharply by 9.8% m/m in March after falling 2.7% m/m in February. The forecast assumed an increase of 5.8% m/m. Analysts note that such a strong growth is quite expected: this month the US population again received financial assistance. Moreover, weather conditions have finally stabilized in the United States, making consumers more mobile. At the same time, the volume of industrial production in the US in March increased by 1.4% m/m against forecasts of growth by 2.7%. However, despite the fact that these numbers are rather weak, they are the highest in the last 8 months. Statistics on the number of claims for unemployment benefits in the United States showed a decrease to 576 thousand against the previous figure of 769 thousand and the forecast for a reduction to 703 thousand. Today it is worth paying attention to the final inflation in Europe. The report confirmed the preliminary estimate, which showed earlier growth of the indicator from 0.9% to 1.3%.

Oil market. April 15, 2021 | Brent remains in the area of monthly highs On Thursday, oil prices continued to be in the area of monthly highs, thanks to improved forecasts for global fuel demand. The current Brent quotation is $66.30 per barrel. Prices were supported by a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), according to which oil demand is expected to grow by 5.7 million barrels per day in 2021 compared to 2020. And this is 230 thousand barrels per day more than previously predicted. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has also improved its forecast for global oil demand for the current year and is now expecting an increase of 5.95 million barrels per day. Additional support for quotations of «black gold» was provided by yesterday's data on crude oil reserves in the United States. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that oil reserves last week fell by 5.89 million barrels, while analysts had expected a half-cut, by 2.89 million barrels. In the current environment, oil prices will continue to trade above $66.00 per barrel. EUR/USD. April 15, 2021 | Euro is confidently approaching the level of 1.20 The main currency pair continues its upward trend, approaching the level of 1.2000. The main support for the euro is provided by the growing demand for risky assets and the general weakness of the US dollar in the market. Earlier the head of the US Federal Reserve J. Powell said that the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce the volume of purchases of government bonds long before the interest rates will be revised. At the same time, the regulator did not even indicate an approximate timeframe, which exerted a certain pressure on the greenback's position. Yesterday, investors drew attention to the publication of a report in the US Beige Book, which showed that from the end of February to the current moment, economic activity in the country has been increasing and returning to a moderate pace, consumer spending is gradually increasing, and employment growth has noticeably accelerated. However, these factors are not yet helping the US currency to interrupt its decline. Today we should pay attention to the publication of the report on retail sales in the US for March. Analysts expect the indicator to rise 5.8% m/m after falling 3.0% m/m in February. In addition, the March figures for industrial production will be released. According to the average forecasts, the indicator could expand by 2.7% m/m against the decline in February by 2.2% m/m. If the forecasts are confirmed, the euro will not be able to overcome the level of 1.20.

GBP/USD. April 14, 2021 | Pound weakened after the release of GDP data The upward dynamics of the pound did not develop and the GBP/USD pair began to decline from the level of 1.3810. The current quote for the pair is 1.3750. The pressure on the British currency was exerted by weak statistics, according to which GDP growth for the month amounted to only 0.4%, while the forecast was 0.6%. On an annualized basis, the indicator also fell short of the forecasted values, demonstrating -7.8% instead of -7.3%. At the same time, the volume of production in February increased by 1.0% against the expectation of 0.5%. Moreover, the Bank of England announced that Chief Economist Andy Haldane will leave his position on the Monetary Policy Committee after the June meeting, and this negatively affected the dynamics of the pound. As you know, Haldane is opposed to lowering the interest rate to the negative zone, so now we can assume that this scenario will become more likely. However, the US dollar is still under pressure, and the yield on Treasury bonds has ceased to strengthen. Yesterday, dollar sales strengthened after the release of data on inflation in the US, which showed an increase of 2.6%. Today we are watching the speech of J. Powell, on whose comments the further dynamics of the dollar depends. EUR/USD. April 14, 2021 | Euro can easily reach 1.20 EUR/USD continues to rise during Wednesday's trading, reaching 1.1975. The market practically ignored the weak data on business optimism in Germany from the ZEW. According to the data released, the index of economic expectations in April fell to 70.7 from 76.6 in March. Economists had expected the index to be 79.5. The index fell for the first time since November 2020. The main support for the pair is provided by the continuing pressure on the dollar. The American currency index sank 1.7% in just two weeks, falling below the support of 92.00 points. The sale of the dollar intensified after the release of statistics on the consumer price index in the United States. The growth of consumer prices in March amounted to 0.6% compared to the previous month, against the forecast of growth by 0.5%. Annual inflation in March amounted to 2.6% against the forecast of 2.5%. Today we should pay attention to the speech of the FRS Chairman Jerome Powell. If the Fed again points to continued soft monetary policy, the pressure on the dollar will intensify, which will allow euro buyers to gain a foothold above 1.20.

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Brent. April 13, 2021 | Oil is stable amid positive external background Brent is on the rise on Tuesday, reaching $63.70 a barrel. Prices are supported by growing tensions in the Middle East, where Yemeni Houthis fired on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure the day before. An additional factor supporting «black gold» is optimism associated with the acceleration of vaccination rates and the improvement of the epidemiological situation in the world. On Sunday, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted during his speech that the growth rate of the United States economy will accelerate in the coming months. And this, on the eve of the holiday season and the increased demand for motor fuel, raised expectations of an increase in demand for oil and petroleum products. Moreover, on the side of buyers – and economic statistics from China, where the volume of exports and imports exceeded the indicators of 2018 and 2019, and the volume of foreign trade increased by 29.2% compared to the same period last year. In the current environment, further growth in Brent quotes can be expected, to the area of $64.00 and above. EUR/USD. April 13, 2021 | The pair is consolidating at 1.19 On Tuesday morning, the EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate at 1.1900. The euro is gaining ground against the dollar, despite quarantines in several of Europe's leading economies, low vaccination rates and worsening GDP growth forecasts for France and Spain. Local support for the euro was provided by yesterday's strong data on retail sales in the euro area. In February, consumer spending rose 3%, double the expectations of market participants. At the same time, the January figure was revised from -5.9% to -5.2%. In addition, last week the business activity indices in Germany were revised upwards, and the business climate indicator in the country reached the levels of June 2019 (96.6 points). Today, market participants are awaiting data on inflation and retail sales in the US (April 15). Analysts believe that vaccination of the population and social benefits should have stimulated March spending, and as a result, the figure could rise by 5.7%. Inflation is also rising, and these two indicators can provide significant support to the dollar. This week is also due to publish reports on the Small Business Optimism Index for March, as well as data on the number of open vacancies in the employment sector outside the US agricultural sector for the last month.