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Forecast for USD/JPY on September 23, 2021 At yesterday's FOMC Federal Reserve meeting, the dollar index rose 0.27%, the stock market (S&P 500) rose 0.95%, and the USD/JPY pair showed an increase of 0.53% (54 points). The price went above the MACD indicator line on the daily chart, but the MACD line has long been transformed into a "skewer" or "spindle" line, on which the price winds up, and its return under the MACD line can occur at any time. We associate fears and the greatest likelihood of a fall in prices, that is, of a strengthening of the yen, with an unfinished correction in the stock market. Today, as expected, the Chinese company Evergrande will declare insolvency. The issue of restructuring the company's debt is being resolved, the Chinese regulator predicts the bankruptcy of several more companies, but announced the refusal to save them in order to improve the market. But the most important thing is that institutional investors have already left the US stock market and now they themselves predict its fall by 10-20%, also for the recovery of the (now speculative) market at the expense of retail buyers. The price also broke above the MACD line on the four-hour scale, but the Marlin oscillator shows an intention to turn down, which may lead to the third return of the price under the MACD line in the last 10 days. These places are marked on the graph with gray ovals. Summary: today is not a definite day for trading. We look forward to the development of events today and tomorrow.

Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on September 22, 2021 Here are the details of the economic calendar for Sept 21: Yesterday, the US construction sector statistics were published, where traders saw solid gains. Details: 12:30 Universal time - The number of construction permits issued in August rose by 6.0%, with a forecast decline of 1.8%. - The volume of construction of new homes in August rose by 3.9%, with a growth forecast of 2.0%. * Construction permits are the absolute number of permits for the construction of new residential buildings issued by state bodies in the reporting month. The U.S. Census Bureau collects this data by sending requests to permitting agencies across the country. The monthly survey sample covers 9,000 permit-issuing points across the country. The volume of construction of new houses is the absolute number of new housing construction projects that began in the reporting month. Analysis of trading charts from September 21: The Euro managed to slightly strengthen its position against the US dollar, pulling back the quote from the level of 1.1700 by about 40 points. The downward interest still takes place among market participants for this very reason, but the pullback was replaced by stagnation. In this case, traders consider the 1.1700 level as a temporary pivot point when forming a decline. The trading plan on September 21 considered the possibility of a further downward movement, but the signal for action should have come after the price had kept below the level of 1.1700. The GBP/USD pair slowed down the decline in the area of 1.3640, where a pullback occurred at the beginning, after stagnation at 1.3640/1.3690. Despite the pound's high level of oversold, market participants are still focused on the decline. This is indicated by a number of technical factors: the absence of correction, the process of deceleration, and an increase in the volume of short positions. September 22 economic calendar: Today, everyone is focused on the results of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), where the regulator will certainly leave the key interest rate unchanged at the level of 0-0.25%. The most important point is the fate of the quantitative easing program, where if it is announced, a wave of speculation will arise in all markets. In simple words, the US stock market will sharply decline, and the US dollar will strengthen. A number of events are particularly important ones, so speculation is expected at the time of the press conference. Be cautious. FOMC meeting results - 18:00 Universal time FOMC press conference - 18:30 Universal time Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 22: Market participants regarded the price movement within the level of 1.1700 as stagnation. Most likely, the information and news background will provoke speculators to new leaps. In this situation, the coordinates 1.1700 and 1.1750 are considered signal levels. The price being kept outside a certain level may indicate a local movement. To simply put it, trading is carried out on a breakdown of one level or another. Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 22: The oversold level may be ignored by market participants. If the price is kept below the level of 1.3640, a path will open towards the range of 1.3600-1.3571.

Bitcoin extends weakness. What to expect in short term? On Monday, the BTC price reached a low of $45,100. Bitcoin began to drop sharply after it failed to consolidate above the resistance level of $48,800 on Saturday. On September 20, BTC was trading near the $43,250 mark. Over the past day, it has sunk by 5%. At the same time, the market capitalization fell below $860 billion. Following the decrease of bitcoin, the leading altcoins also incurred significant losses. Ethereum declined by 7% to $3,100, and Cardano shed 9% to $2,170. Now, crypto traders are focusing their attention on the amendment to Tax Code Section 6050I of the United States. Reportedly, the new Infrastructure Bill aims to extend requirements on cryptocurrencies. If enacted, this bill will require any US person receiving over $10,000 in cryptocurrency to report the sender's personal information, including Social Security Number (SSN), to the authorities within 15 days. Violation of this law entails penalties and even imprisonment for five years. Apart from that, the rules of section 6050I can apply to miners, wallet developers, and many other players of the crypto market. Such chnages in the US infrastructure plan will deliver a severe blow to BTC, analysts believe. In addition, in the near future, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) plans to check one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, Binance, for market manipulation and insider trading. US regulators assume that Binance conducts insider transactions, including trading on customer orders before executing them As for the long-term forecasts of experts amid recent events in the crypto world, they are think that bitcoin is unlikely to fall below $39,000 during the next rally. The main reason for such an optimistic scenario is a decline in the trading volumes on top-tier cryptocurrency exchanges. However, if the forecasts do not come true and BTC falls to $39,000, bulls will simply not let it drop lower. In this case, the owners of stablecoins will begin to massively transfer them to BTC amid a possible drop in the asset. Signs of a new rally in the crypto market appeared last week, when the stablecoin supply reached $120 billion. As a rule, it indicates an upcoming trend change.

Analysis and trading recommendations for GBP/USD on September 20 GBP / USD fell strongly on Friday, which opened a good opportunity to take short positions. Sadly, the MACD line was far from zero, so investors had no choice but to ignore the signal. Today though it is likely that the pair will drop in price as there are not much statistics expected to be published. Thus, it would be best to trade along the trend and bet on a decline. By afternoon, the market should become calm because the absence of US statistics will force traders to take a wait and see attitude. Data on the housing market will be published, but it is unlikely to affect dollar significantly, although it may partially support it. For long positions: Open a long position when pound reaches 1.3730 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3763 (thicker green line on the chart). But it is unlikely to see a huge growth today since there was a massive sell-off during the Asian session. In any case, before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.3701, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3730 and 1.3763. For short positions: Open a short position when pound reaches 1.3701 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3661. The pair may continue the downward trend that started last week. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. The pair could also be sold at 11.3730, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3701 and 1.3661. Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on September 20 EUR / USD fell strongly on Friday, which opened a good opportunity to take short positions. And fortunately it coincided with the MACD line going down from zero, so the price fell just as projected. Today there will be a report on PPI from Germany, which may show a slowdown for the month of August. If the indicator turns out worse than expected, pressure on risky assets will return. There will also be speeches from ECB members, which may add more pressure to the pair. But by afternoon the market may become calm because the absence of US statistics will force traders to take a wait and see attitude. Data on the housing market will be published, but it is unlikely to affect dollar significantly, although it may partially support it. For long positions: Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1742 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1789 (thicker green line on the chart). The pair will climb higher if inflation in Germany exceeds expectations. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1704, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1742 and 1.1789. For short positions: Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1704 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1654. A decline will occur if Germany releases a weak inflation report and if the ECB takes a conservative approach on policy tapering. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. It is also possible to sell at 1.1742, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1704 and 1.1654.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on September 17, 2021 Yesterday, the euro fell 52 points under mysterious circumstances. The euro chose its main movement even before the release of data on retail sales, which had practically no effect on the euro, except that other counter-dollar currencies weakened a little after the European flagship. The euro fell along with gold and US government bonds - gold lost 2.25% in a day, the yield on 5-year bonds rose from 0.799% to 0.840%. The daily trading volume for the euro was the highest in September and August. This is possible only in one case - if investors know for sure about the intention of the Federal Reserve to announce a tightening of QE at the next meeting on September 22nd. But we will not lay such an assumption on the basis of current forecasts, since harsh statements by central banks can easily reverse technical prerequisites and trends. At the moment, the situation for the euro is completely downward: the price went under the balance and MACD indicator lines on the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator is going down in the negative zone. If it were not for the upcoming Fed meeting, we would have concluded that a confident movement to the target level of 1.1640 is being formed, but now we will keep silent about this, but note that the price is at the lower border of the consolidation range formed on July 20-26 (1.1750). Therefore, it is very possible that the decline below the indicator lines, and Marlin's departure below the zero line, may eventually turn out to be false - the price may turn upward from this level this time too. We will receive the answer only on Wednesday next week. Today our recommendation is to refrain from trading. On the four-hour chart, a standard correction occurs after the previous price drop. The MACD line is located high from the price, which creates the preconditions for the formation of a new range (sideways movement) before the Fed meeting.

Forecast for AUD/USD on September 16, 2021 Yesterday, the Australian dollar closed the day with a white candle of 11 points, piercing the 23.6% Fibonacci level with the lower shadow, that is, having made a false exit below the level. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator turned upward from the border with the downward trend area. Conditions and signs have been formed for a further rise to the Fibonacci level of 38.2% at the price of 0.7450. Overcoming this level opens the second target of 0.7558 - Fibonacci level 50.0%. The level grid is based on the movement from February 25 to August 20. The Marlin Oscillator has moved into the growth area on the four-hour chart. The price is heading towards the intermediate resistance on the way to the target of 0.7450 - to the MACD line in the area of 0.7404. Forecast for EUR/USD on September 16, 2021 The euro gained 15 points on Wednesday, helped by the ongoing divergence in European and US economic indicators for several weeks. Yesterday, European industrial production growth in July showed an increase of 1.5%, and in the US by 0.4%. On a daily scale chart, the price is slowly reversing upward from the MACD indicator line. The Marlin Oscillator is moving sideways along the zero line - along the border separating the growing and declining trends. This behavior of the oscillator shows that additional external factors are required to continue the euro's growth. Today, it may be the indicator of retail sales in the United States for the last month - the forecast is negative: -0.8% after reducing by 1.1% in July. We are waiting for the euro to strengthen with the release of the evening data. The task is to overcome the resistance range of 1.1852/58, which will open the second target at 1.1920. On the four-hour timescale, the Marlin Oscillator has consolidated in a growing trend zone. The price is currently struggling with the resistance by the balance indicator line, breaking above which will make it easier for the price to prepare for an attack on the target range of 1.1852/58.

American stock indices fell by 0.5-0.8% The US stock market closed in the red on Tuesday after rising early in the day on data that inflation in the US was slightly weakening. At the same time, the Nasdaq Composite dropped for the fifth session in a row. Initially, the market began to rally in relief due to slightly smaller-than-expected price increases, but this data is unlikely to change the intentions of the Federal Reserve to roll back stimulus measures, says Randy Frederick, managing director of Charles Schwab. Consumer prices (CPI) in the country in August rose by 5.3% compared to the same month last year, the Ministry of Labor said. Thus, inflation has slowed down somewhat compared to the maximum value over the past thirteen years of 5.4%, which was recorded in June and July. The change in the CPI index in August coincided with the average forecast of analysts. Prices excluding food and energy (Core CPI) increased 0.1% MoM (the smallest increase since February) and 4% YoY. The consensus forecast was for an increase of 0.3% and 4.2%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday fell by 292.06 points (0.84%), that is, to 34577.57 points. The value of Standard & Poor's 500 decreased during the day by 25.68 points (0.57%), amounting to 4468.73 points. The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 67.82 points (0.45%), that is, to 15,037.76 points. Oracle Corp. decreased yesterday by 2.8%. A day earlier, one of the world's largest software companies announced that its revenue in the first quarter of fiscal year 2022 (June-August) increased by 4%. However, it did not live up to the expectations of the experts. Apple Inc. dropped 1% after the company unveiled a new line of smartphones, the iPhone 13, as part of the annual event. The new iPad and Apple Watch were also shown with a display that seamlessly merges with the body. Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. plummeted more than 21% after a nutritional supplement maker worsened its financial outlook for the second time in a month. Sportradar Group AG fell 7.2% at its debut trading to $ 25.05. The Swiss sports performance analytics firm conducted an IPO at $ 27 on the Nasdaq and raised $ 513 million. The IPO was $ 513 million, and the company as a whole was valued at $ 21.07 billion. Among the Dow Jones components, Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (-2%), Caterpillar Inc. (-1.9%) and Chevron Corp. (-1.8%). At the same time, only Microsoft Corp. shares rose in price. (+ 0.9%), Salesforce.com Inc. (+ 0.1%) and Coca-Cola Co. (+ 0.1%). Intuit Inc. added 2% in price. The software maker that owns tax-processing platform TurboTax has announced its $ 12 billion purchase of marketing firm MailChimp.

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 14, 2021 Yesterday, we recommended waiting another day to see whether the price will settle below 1.1802, or will there be an upward reversal from it. The MACD indicator line of the daily scale is located at the level of 1.1802. Yesterday, the price just pierced this line with a lower shadow and closed the day higher. The Marlin Oscillator did not move below the zero line. Today the price may turn upwards. The targets are indicated on the chart: 1.1852, 1.1920. On the four-hour scale, the price made a false pass under the level of 1.1802, forming a convergence with the Marlin Oscillator. This is a reversal signal. Marlin came close to the border with the territory of the growing trend. Overcoming yesterday's high (1.1817) will be a signal that the price could advance to the first target at 1.1852. But here we will clarify the range of the first target - 1.1852/58, since the MACD line is above, and its breakthrough in the current situation becomes a more important condition for the euro's growth towards the second target of 1.1920. Forecast for USD/JPY on September 14, 2021 Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair decided to try to develop an upward momentum once again over the last week. On the daily chart, the price settled above the MACD indicator line, with the help of the Marlin oscillator, which turned up from the zero line. The growth target of 110.63 is the embedded trend line of the price channel. The stock market is not flat, but is growing: yesterday the S&P 500 added 0.23%, the Nasdaq lost -0.07%. On the four-hour scale chart, the price settled above the balance (red) and MACD (blue) indicator lines, and today, since the opening of the Pacific session, the price turned upward from the MACD line, which formed a reversal pattern. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator turned upward from the zero line. We are waiting for the price to continue rising.

American stock indices fell 0.8-0.9% US President Joe Biden last week announced a new vaccination plan for COVID-19 in the country, including new vaccination rules for federal employees, major employers and medical personnel, in a bid to contain yet another surge in the spread of the coronavirus in the United States. According to the New York Times, the daily number of new cases of COVID-19 in the United States is on average just below 150 thousand, the proportion of the population vaccinated is 53%. Traders are closely monitoring the situation with the coronavirus in the country, as it directly affects the plans of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) to roll back anti-crisis measures to support the economy. Recent comments from FRS officials suggest that the US Central Bank intends to begin reducing bond buybacks by the end of this year. Interactive Brokers analyst Steve Sosnik noted that US stocks are holding near record highs and many investors are worried about the withdrawal of stimulus that has supported the stock market. The statistics released on Friday showed the acceleration of the growth rate of producer prices in the USA in August to the maximum since November 2010 of 8.3% in annual terms. In July, prices increased by 7.8%, and experts had expected their rise in August by 8.2%. New York Life Investments economist Lauren Goodwin said they continue to see high inflationary pressures. Producer price data speaks in favor of buying stocks in companies, which can pass the growth of their spending onto consumers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average by the close of the market on Friday fell by 271.66 points (0.78%) and amounted to 34607.72 points. Standard & Poor's 500 fell by 34.7 points (0.77%), that is, to 4458.58 points. The Nasdaq Composite lost 132.76 points (0.87%) to 15115.49 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.2% for the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.6%. Apple Inc. share price fell 3.3% by the end of trading on Friday. The company received an order from a federal district judge who was reviewing Epic Games Inc.'s lawsuit to change the rules of the App Store and allow mobile app developers to redirect users to alternative resources to pay for services. The court ruling limits Apple's important source of revenue. Wells Fargo fell 0.1%. On the eve it became known that the Office of the Comptroller of the Circulation (OCC) fined Wells Fargo $ 250 million due to the fact that the bank has not yet eliminated violations in the mortgage business, revealed back in 2018. Video game makers rose. Zynga rose 6.3%, Roblox rose 1.8%, Activision Blizzard rose 2%, Electronic Arts rose 2%. Affirm Holdings Inc., the operator of the online hire-purchase service, jumped 34% on strong quarterly earnings from the company. Affirm's revenue for the fourth financial quarter, which ended in June, amounted to $ 262 million, exceeding the market consensus forecast of $ 224 million. The company's financial statements impressed analysts: the average target price of Affirm shares after the publication of quarterly results rose to $ 109 from $ 97.

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 9, 2021 Yesterday, the euro deepened its correctional decline. Trading volumes were the highest for the current week, which indicates a significant closing of positions before today's European Central Bank meeting. The consensus forecast of economists boils down to a possible reduction of the PEPP program from 80 to 60 billion euros, but at the same time a small extension of the program itself. The price reached the support of the balance and MACD indicator lines on the daily scale chart, a slight reversal is planned this morning. The Marlin oscillator has slowed its decline as it approaches the border with the downtrend territory. We are waiting for a positive decision from the ECB and the euro to rise to the nearest target level of 1.1920. The price has settled below both indicator lines on the four-hour scale, the Marlin oscillator is turning to the upside from the negative zone. In the event of a strong fundamental news release, such plunges under the indicator lines are interpreted (after the fact) as false, but a false price exit in itself is a sign of further price growth. To do this, the price must go back above the MACD line, that is, above the level of 1.1847.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on September 8, 2021 The release of yesterday's German and European business sentiment indices for September somewhat deepened the euro correction. The German business sentiment index ZEW fell from 40.4 to 26.5 against the expectation of 30.2, the same index for the euro area fell from 42.7 to 31.1 against the expectation of 35.3. The euro lost 30 points. Investors took the exit somewhat emotionally, even if it failed, leaving in the shadows industrial production growth in Germany by 1.0% in July, GDP growth in the eurozone for the second quarter by 2.2% against the first estimate of 2.0% and employment growth eurozone for the second quarter by 0.7% against the previous estimate of 0.5%. The ZEW indices are still survey indicators, formed against the background of an increase in the incidence in the first half of August, but now the incidence in Germany and in the euro area has sharply declined, which should affect the ZEW indices in a month. Obviously, investors are aware of all these events, and therefore we are waiting for the euro to recover to its original positions by the European Central Bank meeting. On the daily chart, the price has been rising since the opening of the day, trying to break above the support at 1.1847, which had been pushed through yesterday. Consolidating above it, again defines the target for the price at 1.1920. The Marlin Oscillator is also slowly turning up. On the four-hour chart, the price reverses without reaching the MACD line. All of yesterday's correction took place above the balance indicator line, which confirms the decline precisely as a corrective decline within the general upward trend.

Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on September 7, 2021 September 7 economic calendar: In terms of the economic calendar, the third estimate of Europe's GDP in the second quarter has been published today, which can confirm the economic growth of 13.6%. The factor is positive, but it is worth considering that we only have confirmation of the previous assessment. Thus, the market has already taken into account the statistical data in the quote. Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 7: The resistance area of 1.1880/1.1905 continues to put pressure on buyers. This led to a stop of the upward movement and as a result, the first signal of a possible change of direction. The price being kept below 1.1850/1.1860 on a four-hour period will increase the chances of sellers for a subsequent decline towards the range of 1.1800-1.1760. An alternative scenario of the market development considers an amplitude move along the resistance area. Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 7: The pullback from the resistance level of 1.3880 was replaced by a slight stagnation, while the downward interest still takes place in the market. To strengthen the sell positions, the quote needs to stay below the level of 1.3815, which will automatically lead to a decline towards the level of 1.3800. In this case, an increase in the volume of short positions is possible, which will open the way towards the level of 1.3735. An alternative scenario of the market development will become relevant if the price is kept above the level of 1.3905. In this case, the upward cycle from 1.3600 is prolonged towards the psychological level of 1.4000. Short positions or Short means sell positions. Psychological levels are round values (1.2000, 1.3000, 1.4000, 1.5000, etc.) that serve as key coordinates in the market that traders pay special attention to. These levels are often used as support or resistance.

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 6, 2021 Friday's US employment data came out so that both optimists and pessimists were satisfied; in the non-agricultural sector, 235,000 new jobs were created against expectations of 750,000, and the unemployment rate decreased from 5.4% to the projected 5.2%, while the July non-farms were revised up from 943,000 to 1,053,000( +110,000), which probably affected the euro's final insignificant growth by 10 points. Of course, this data will still be further analyzed by market participants and gradually included in prices, but at the current moment, perhaps, a more important event is on the agenda - the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday, September 9. The main European bank is expected to signal to the markets that it is time to think hard about tightening monetary policy. At the moment, the euro is in a convenient range (1.1847-1.1920), in which there have been short-term consolidations since mid-June. The 1.1920 target level seems to be strong, a good external stimulus is necessary to overcome it, which will not happen today due to the holiday in the US (Labor Day). The price has formed a double divergence with the Marlin oscillator on the four-hour chart, which may return the price to the lower border of the 1.1847-1.1920 range. Perhaps the price will correct even lower, to the MACD line to the 1.1818 mark area, which coincides in price level with the MACD line on the daily scale. After the correction, we expect the euro to continue rising. Target at 1.1975.

Forecast for GBP/USD on September 3, 2021 The British pound gained 63 points yesterday, close to the first target level of 1.3858 (2 March low). Such a breakthrough was necessary for the price to overcome the accumulation of indicator lines, which were strong resistance on Tuesday and Wednesday. And if the overcoming of the resistance took place on a strong impulse, then we are waiting for the price to surpass the nearest level and rise to the second at around 1.3883 - to the embedded line of the growing price channel. Surpassing 1.3883 opens the way to the high target of 1.4004 - this is the point of coincidence of the next line of the price channel with the level of highs on March 12 and 18 and April 20. On the H4 chart, the price left the wedge-shaped structure upwards. The MACD line is turning up, the Marlin oscillator is growing in the positive trend zone. We are waiting for the pound to rise further.

Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on September 2, 2021 Sept 2 economic calendar: The weekly data on applications for US unemployment benefits will be released at 12:30 Universal time today, where they predict a decrease in their volume. This may support the US dollar if expectations coincide. Details of statistics: The volume of initial applications for benefits may fall from 353 thousand to 345 thousand. The volume of repeated applications for benefits may fall from 2 862 thousand to 2 775 thousand. Therefore, a decline in the number of applications for benefits may lead to a strengthening of the national currency – USD. Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 2: Euro's high overbought level does not stop speculators, who continue to form a correction from this year's base. In this case, one should trade on both sides. Sell positions come from a downtrend that is relevant in the market. In this case, the first entry into the market may occur if the price pulls back from the correction maximum with a target of 1.1800. Sell positions are considered to maintain an inertial course in the market, when speculators ignore the overbought status. In this case, the maximum possible growth of the euro is the level of 1.1900. Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 2: It can be assumed here that the sideways movement within the range of 1.3730/1.380 will remain on the market for some time. Now, it is worth preparing for the upcoming acceleration, trading by the method of breaking through a particular border. Buy positions can be considered if the price is kept above the level of 1.3800. Sell positions can be considered if the price is kept below the level of 1.3725.

Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on September 1 Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair There was a signal to buy in EUR / USD on Tuesday, but it had to be ignored because the MACD line was far away from zero. After some time though the indicator hit the overbought area, so bearish traders were able to open short positions. This provoked a 30-pip decline in the market. There were no other signals for the rest of the day. Surprisingly, even though the data released yesterday exceeded expectations, EUR / USD did not undergo large movements. Only the report on US consumer confidence led to a slight surge in volatility. Another report will come from Germany and the Euro area today, but it is unlikely to shake the market. Then, in the afternoon, there will be data on US manufacturing and employment, followed by speeches from Fed representatives. For long positions: Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1818 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1849 (thicker green line on the chart). EUR / USD trade upwards if economic data from Germany and the Euro area exceed expectations. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1796 and 1.1765, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1818 and 1.1849. For short positions: Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1796 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1765. A decline will occur if the Euro area reports weak manufacturing activity and employment. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. It is also possible to sell at 1.1818 and 1.1849, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1796. Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair There were several market signals in GBP / USD yesterday. But the first one, which was to sell, had to be ignored because the MACD line was at the oversold area. Following that was a signal to buy, which successfully provoked a 20-pip increase. Then, another signal to sell appeared in the afternoon and this time, it finally coincided with the MACD line moving down from zero. As a result, bearish traders were able to open short positions, which led to a 30-pip decline in the market. Surprisingly, UK data on lending and money supply did not affect the market in any way, and only the report on US consumer confidence led to a surge in volatility. Today, an interesting report on UK manufacturing activity is coming out, which may put even more pressure on pound. Then, in the afternoon, there will be data on US manufacturing and employment, followed by speeches from Fed representatives. For long positions: Open a long position when pound reaches 1.3761 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3810 (thicker green line on the chart). The pair will continue moving up if there are strong PMI reports. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.3727 and 1.3679, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3761 and 1.3810. For short positions: Open a short position when pound reaches 1.3727 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3679. A decline will occur if UK releases very weak data on manufacturing activity. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. The pair could also be sold at 1.3761 and 1.3810, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3727 and 1.3679.

Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on August 31, 2021 August 31 economic calendar: Today, the UK lending market data will be published at 8:30 Universal time, where not everything is so bad according to forecasts. The main event today is considered to be the publication of preliminary inflation estimates in Europe, which could grow from 2.2% to 2.7%. Such an intense rise in consumer prices scares investors since this situation requires immediate action from the European Central Bank, which is still doing nothing. At the same time, the regulator does not even give hints about a change in the course of monetary policy, which puts even more pressure on the market due to complete uncertainty. In such a situation, speculators appear, where the growth of inflation can be won back by the market both by a local decrease and by growth in the value of the euro. This does not exclude local surges in the market. From the point of view of fundamental analysis, inflation growth is a positive signal for the national currency, but when consumer prices rise faster than forecast, this is not considered the best signal. Trading plan for EUR/USD on August 31: The ascending inertial move has already led to the fact that the euro is overbought in the market. In this situation, two possible scenarios can be considered: The first one comes from the downward cycle from the beginning of June, where the current correction is already at the limit of possibilities. This can lead to the early completion of growth and the resumption of the downward cycle. This forecast will be confirmed if the price is held below 1.1800, which will open the way towards 1.1760-1.1700. The second scenario considers an inertial move, where speculators are not stopped by an overbought signal. This leads to a movement towards the level of 1.1900. Trading plan for GBP/USD on August 31: The resistance level of 1.3800 is still putting pressure on buyers, which may lead to a reduction in the volume of long positions. If the price rebounds from the resistance level, a movement may occur towards the level of 1.3735. An alternative scenario of the market development will arise if the price is kept above the level of 1.3830. This could jeopardize the downside cycle from 1.4000.

Forecast for EUR/USD on August 30, 2021 Bankers' symposium in Jackson Hole ended on Saturday. The much anticipated speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell only confirmed the general line of the central bank, regardless of the intentions of the hawks (Bostic, Kaplan, Harker, Mester) to announce plans to start phasing out QE in September, to begin this phase out in December, and to raise the rate at the earliest. Next year. The main thing that investors took from Powell's speech was a signal of a later rate hike than other central banks, including the European Central Bank, would do. Powell paid a lot of attention to inflation, confirming the thesis about its temporary surge, but, briefly paying tribute to the good growth of the labor market, noted that the pandemic could weaken this growth, which, in our opinion, gives room for maneuver. We suspect that labor data released on September 3 will already come out worse than forecast (unemployment is expected to decrease from 5.4% to 5.2% and non-farm in 728,000). The price goes above the balance indicator line on the daily scale chart, the Marlin oscillator is growing, the target at 1.1835/47 remains, overcoming this range opens the second target at 1.1920. The growth continues as usual on the four-hour chart: the price is above the indicator lines, Marlin turned up after the discharge (correction) on the 26th. Forecast for GBP/USD on August 30, 2021 The pound, after creating a local low on August 20, has formed a new upward price channel, starting from the March 2020 low. The Marlin oscillator has moved into the zone of positive values, into the zone of an upward trend, now we expect the price to continue to rise to the nearest embedded line of the price channel around 1.3858 (the level coincides with the lows of March 2, April 27). The closest resistance is the MACD indicator line at 1.3798, which coincides with May 2021's low. The price settled above the indicator lines on the H4 chart, above the intermediate target level of 1.3747, gathering strength before the attack at 1.3798.

Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on August 27 Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair There was a signal to buy in EUR / USD in the morning, but traders had to ignore it because it came when the MACD line was at the overbought area. This resulted to euro dropping by another 20 pips, which, in turn, formed a signal to sell in the market. But since the MACD indicator was far away from zero, the pair did not go down much. Following that was another signal to buy, but it also did not result in a large movement. Obviously, the minutes of the July ECB meeting and data on money supply and lending did not affect the market much. And today, since there are no important macro statistics scheduled to be released, the market will most likely remain calm in the morning. But by afternoon Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will make a speech, which will be decisive to the EUR / USD pair. Data on German import price index and US income will most likely be ignored. For long positions: Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1770 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1800 (thicker green line on the chart). EUR / USD trade upwards if the Federal Reserve does not hint on future policy changes. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1750 and 1.1708, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1770 and 1.1800. For short positions: Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1750 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1708. A decline will occur if US releases strong economic reports and if the Fed indicates potential changes in the monetary policy. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. It is also possible to sell at 1.1770 and 1.1800, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1750.

Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on August 26 Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair Several market signals appeared in EUR / USD on Wednesday, but the first two had to be ignored because they came when the MACD line was far away from zero. Then, the next signal coincided with the indicator going to the overbought area, so traders were able to short euro by 20 pips. Following that was a signal to buy, which coincided with the MACD line being at the oversold area. This allowed traders to push the pair up also by 20 pips. Euro was under slight pressure because of the economic reports released yesterday. The data from IFO was just as expected, while other indicators were worse than the forecasts. There is a high chance that bearish pressure will continue today amid the ECB protocol and data on money supply. Reduced lending in the private sector could also provoke a decline, which may escalate if US releases a strong GDP report for the 2nd quarter. The speech of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium will also be decisive to the EUR / USD pair. For long positions: Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1779 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1834. EUR / USD may climb higher if GDP data from France and the whole Euro area exceed expectations. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1757 and 1.1708, but the MACD indicator line must be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1779 and 1.1834. For short positions: Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1757 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1708. A decline will occur if the Euro area releases weak economic indicators and if the ECB takes a wait-and-see position on monetary policy. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. It is also possible to sell at 1.1779 and 1.1834, but the MACD line must be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1757. Trading Signal for USD/CAD for August 26 - 27, 2021: Buy above 1.2573 (EMA 200) On August 20, the USD / CAD pair peaked at 1.2948, the highest level since December 2020. Since that day, the pair has been making a correction and has finally reached the 200 EMA zone located at 1.2573. In a few days, the loonie has strengthened by more than 350 pips. The rally of oil prices of more than 600 pips from the low of 62.00 has given strength to the USD / CAD pair. Now it could be in a zone of a probable technical rebound. Investors are cautious and prefer to stay on the sidelines ahead of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. This event is an important factor for the currency market. So, it could be limiting the strength of the Canadian dollar, justifying some caution before positioning for any further movement. According to technical analysis, traders have the same sentiment on USD/CAD as we observe that the pair has found some support near the key support of the 200 EMA and has been bouncing above this level since yesterday. The 21 SMA located at 1.2658 is exerting some downward pressure. Therefore, a pullback towards this level will be a good opportunity to sell. A little higher is the 4/8 line of murray that has now become strong resistance. On the other hand, a break below 1.2573 (200 EMA) will open the possibility of a new bearish sequence that could reach the 2/8 murray support level located at 1.2451. The key point until Friday is to wait for a consolidation above the 200 EMA. Whenever there is a bounce at this level, it will be a good opportunity to buy with targets at 1.2695 and up to 1.2817. Buy above EMA 200 at 1.2573 with take profit at 1.2695 (4/8) and stop loss below 1.2538. Sell if the price makes a pullback 1.2695 (4/8) with take profit at 1.2630 and 1.2573 (3/8), stop loss above 1.2730.

Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on August 25 Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair Euro rose by 20 pips on Tuesday, thanks to the signal to buy that coincided with the MACD line being at the oversold area. Sadly, there was no further growth because the indicator was far away from zero in the afternoon. Surprisingly, the better-than-expected GDP data from Germany did not affect the market much yesterday. The speech of ECB member Isabel Schnabel was also practically ignored, as it did not concern monetary policy. But in the afternoon, euro's rally halted because of good data on US home sales. Most likely, the bullish move will continue provided that upcoming reports from Germany exceed expectations. But if the figures decline, EUR / USD will drop in price as well. Then, the scenario could escalate in the afternoon if US releases strong data on orders for durable goods. For long positions: Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1754 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1796. EUR / USD may climb higher if data from Germany exceeds expectations. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1733 and 1.1693, but the MACD indicator line must be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1754 and 1.1796. For short positions: Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1733 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1693. A decline will occur if Germany releases weak economic indicators and if the ECB takes a wait-and-see position on monetary policy. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. It is also possible to sell at 1.1754 and 1.1796, but the MACD line must be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1733.

Trading Signal for XAU/USD for August 24 - 25, 2021 The daily chart of Gold shows that the metal is trading within a downtrend channel which has been extending since May 14. Now it would be close to start a trend change, but the price has triple resistance where the top of the channel, the 200 EMA and the 6/8 line of murray converge (1,812). The gold market opened the week higher and XAU / USD rose from the level of 1,781, breaking the symmetrical triangle pattern (see the chart). Until the closure of the bullish candle on Monday at 1,804, this pattern could sustain momentum, so gold could rise to the zone of 1,812. This bullish momentum of yesterday occurred due to the weakness of the USDX which fell from the high of 93.71 (8/8 of murray). This level was predicted by us as we had already indicated it in the previous analysis. Now we believe that the USDX could make a correction to the 61.8% of Fibonacci and it will enable a new bullish momentum of gold. But first, gold should also make a technical correction, since it is showing overbought signs, facing extreme resistance at 1,812. We believe that the zone between 1,812 and 1,806 represents strong resistance and gold could fall to the 5/8 murray line located at 1,781 because the 200 EMA is a strong barrier which could prevent a bullish rally. On the contrary, if Gold breaks the key level of 1,812, the price will be free for a new bullish stage. So, the price could reach the area between 1,843 and 1,875, the level of 8/8 murray. Our outlook for now remains bearish because we are confident in the price action patterns. We can also add the eagle indicator on 4-hour charts. As the indicator has reached the 95 level, this signals an imminent technical correction. The reasonable trading idea is to sell at any level below 1,812 with targets at 1,781 and towards the pivot point of 4/8 Murray at 1,750. The eagle technical indicator, that measures the volume and the strength of the market, shows a signal of an imminent correction in the next few hours. Trading tip for XAU/USD (Gold) for August 24 - 25, 2021 Sell below 1,812 (triple resistance), with take profit at 1,795 and 1,781 (5/8), stop loss above 1,818.

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on August 23, 2021 The need for correction is not just long overdue, but has even already begun last Friday. However, the process is extremely slow. Nevertheless, there is no doubt that this is a corrective movement. The uncertainty of the single European currency is caused by business activity indices. The fact is that the preliminary assessment should show a decrease in all indices without exception. For example, the production index should fall from 62.8 points to 62.2 points. The index of business activity in the service sector may fall from 59.8 points to 59.4 points. So, the composite index should decrease from 60.2 points to 59.8 points. Thus, even a slight decline in the single European currency is quite possible during the European session. It will be small for the simple reason that the single European currency is already seriously oversold, which means that its downward movement is extremely limited. However, this does not mean that the correction is postponed indefinitely. American statistics are much more important, and it is precisely with these data that things will be much worse today than in the eurozone. And we are talking about the same preliminary estimates of business activity indices. Thus, the manufacturing index may decrease from 63.4 points to 63.0 points, while the index of business activity in the service sector from 59.9 points to 59.0 points. As a result of all this, the composite index should decrease from 59.9 points to 59.0 points. And due to the fact that American statistics have much more weight, the market will react to it noticeably more actively. Plus, the dollar is clearly overbought. This will be the final reason for the correction. After updating the local minimum of 2021, the EUR/USD pair slowed down its downward course. As a result, there was a corrective movement, which led to the return of the quote above the previously passed level of 1.1700. The RSI technical indicator confirms the correction move by crossing the 50 level from the bottom up. The daily trading chart shows a downward cycle from the beginning of June, the scale of which leads to a change of trading interests. Expectations and prospects: The corrective move returned the quote in the area of the Fibonacci line 23.6-1.1720, where the possibility of completing the existing movement is being considered. If there is no reduction in the volume of long positions in the area of this level, then the subsequent Fibo level is located around the 1.1760 mark. A comprehensive indicator analysis gives a buy signal based on the short-term period. At the same time, the intraday and medium-term periods signal a sale.