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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 22, 2022 Until yesterday, the last time the European Central Bank raised the refinancing rate was in July 2011. That was exactly eleven years ago. So there is nothing surprising in the fact that as soon as it was announced that all interest rates were raised by 50 basis points, the single European currency immediately jumped. But it returned to its original position almost immediately, and began to show a downward trend. The ECB was able to surprise everyone greatly. And quite unpleasant. The fact is that, coupled with an increase in the refinancing rate, the launch of the TPI program was announced, which can be deciphered as a Transitional Protective Instrument. In fact, this is another quantitative easing program. It is aimed at supporting the countries of the euro area in the face of rising interest rates. The fact is that the increase in rates will lead to an increase in the yield of government bonds. So borrowing will become more expensive, and the level of public debt is extremely high. Many countries may well be unable to service their debts. This alone simply cancels out any effect from higher interest rates. But what is most important is that the parameters of this program are not known. No timing, no volume. Simply put, the ECB can print as much money as it wants. That opens the way not just to parity, but also to lower values. Refinancing rate (Europe): The EURUSD currency pair only locally showed speculative interest during the announcement of the results of the ECB meeting and the press conference. The scale of fluctuations was about 100 points. As a result, the current momentum led to forming a short-term flat within the boundaries of 1.0150/1.0270. The technical instrument RSI H4 is moving in the upper area of the 50/70 indicator, which indicates a residual signal of a corrective move. RSI D1 has come close to the 50 middle line, which corresponds to the usual correction. The MA moving lines on the Alligator H1 indicator have many intersections with each other, which indicates a flat. Alligator H4 is in the process of decelerating the upward cycle. Alligator D1 ignores local price rules. There is no intertwining between the MA sliding lines. Expectations and prospects In this situation, the current range focuses all the attention of traders on itself. For this reason, the most appropriate trading tactic is considered to be the method of breaking through one or another flat border. We concretize the above into trading signals: Long positions on the currency pair are taken into account after keeping the price above the value of 1.0280 in a four-hour period. Short positions should be considered after keeping the price below 1.115 in a four-hour period. Complex indicator analysis has a variable signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to the flat. Technical instruments in the medium term give a sell signal due to a downward trend.

Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 21/07/2022 The intrigue is that investors have no idea what to expect from today's board meeting of the European Central Bank. Of course, the refinancing rate will be raised, but what's next is completely unclear. What exactly ECB President Christine Lagarde will say about the pace and extent of the tightening of monetary policy parameters will determine the further development of events. This uncertainty is the reason for the apparent stagnation in the market. The pound ignored even the data on consumer prices, the growth rate of which accelerated from 9.1% to 9.4%. That turned out to be slightly less than the forecast of 9.5%. And this can be interpreted as a sign of a possible slowdown in inflationary processes. Which of course is an extremely positive thing. Inflation (UK): So, the ECB today for the first time since July 2011 will raise the refinancing rate. It should be raised from 0.00% to 0.25%. The very fact of the first increase in interest rates in more than ten years will, of course, spur the market and lead to the growth of the single European currency. Through the dollar index, it will pull other currencies with it. So it will be like a global weakening of the dollar. But what happens after that depends solely on Lagarde's rhetoric. Refinancing rate (Europe): It is necessary to take into account the fact that quite recently everyone was sure that the refinancing rate would be raised by 50 basis points, that is, up to 0.50%, and then expectations were significantly reduced. In addition, the head of the Bundesbank recently announced the need for an extremely cautious approach to the issue of raising interest rates, as this will lead to an increase in the yield of government bonds of all countries in the euro area. The debt burden of which is already incredibly high. So they may find themselves in a situation of inability to service their own debts. From all this, a simple conclusion follows - Lagarde will announce just an extremely slow increase in interest rates, and that the next increase may occur in just one meeting. Or something like that. And if this is exactly what happens, then after a slight upward jump, the single currency will again begin to gradually lose its positions and move towards parity. Pulling the pound along. If Lagarde's rhetoric turns out to be more hawkish, and a large-scale tightening of monetary policy is announced, then the subsequent weakening of the dollar will be much more impressive, and most importantly, prolonged. The correction move for the GBPUSD pair slowed down within the area of the psychological level of 1.2000. As a result, a range of 1.1950/1.2050 emerged, which indicates the process of accumulation of trading forces, which can lead to new price jumps. The RSI H4 technical instrument is moving in the upper area of the 50/70 indicator, which indicates a continuing corrective move in the market. RSI D1 ignores the correction, the main reference is the downward trend. The moving MA lines on the Alligator H4 indicator are directed upwards, which corresponds to a corrective move. While the MA lines on Alligator H1 have a lot of intersections with each other, which indicates congestion. Expectations and prospects In this situation, the method of outgoing momentum from the current range of 1.1950/1.2050 is considered the most optimal trading tactic. We concretize the above into trading signals: Long positions on the currency pair are taken into account after keeping the price above the value of 1.2060 in a four-hour period. Short positions should be considered after keeping the price below 1.1920 in a four-hour period. Complex indicator analysis has a variable signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to stagnation. Technical instruments in the medium term give a sell signal due to a downward trend.

The dollar is in conflict with oil, and the euro is optimistic before the ECB meeting The US currency had to slow down a bit, giving way to the European one, which spread its wings ahead of the European Central Bank meeting. However, the euro should not be in euphoria, and the dollar should not be self-confident, analysts believe. At the same time, the dynamics of the latter is in contradiction with oil quotes, causing concerns about the raw materials market. The greenback partially surrendered its positions on Wednesday, July 20, allowing the euro to move up. The latter was given strength by the upcoming ECB meeting, at which a decision on the interest rate is expected. According to ABN Amro economists, the markets expect the ECB to raise the key rate by 25 bps. In addition, two important issues will be raised at the meeting – the further trajectory of rate hikes and consideration of a new tool to combat fragmentation. The ECB has doubts about the future rise in interest rates, namely in September 2022. However, ABN Amro believes that "the September increase will be a step of 50 bps" if the medium-term inflation forecast remains at the same level. At the same time, in the autumn and until the end of this year, a "gradual but steady increase in rates" by 25 bps is possible. The current situation contributed to the euro's steady growth, which had soared by 1% a day earlier on statements that the ECB leadership would discuss the possibility of increasing the key rate by 50 bps at once. The EUR/USD pair was trading at 1.0234 on Wednesday morning, July 20, playing back previous failures. To date, the pair has exceeded the psychologically important level of 1.0200, increasing its weekly growth to 1.50%. According to preliminary data announced by Reuters, the ECB will consider both options: raising rates by 25 bps and 50 bps. At the last meeting, the ECB allowed the rate to rise by 25 bps in July and the possibility of further increases in September. However, market participants and analysts do not rule out a more aggressive tightening of the monetary policy amid a rapidly growing inflation. Recall that in the first month of summer, consumer prices in the eurozone soared by 8.6% year-on-year after rising by 8.1% in May. Analysts believe that its fair price plays in favor of the euro, while the dollar becomes overbought. This prevents the latter from growing and conquering the next peaks. The greenback's dynamics is under pressure from being overbought, experts emphasize. In the coming week, analysts expect a correction of the US currency, against which market participants will expect further actions by the Federal Reserve on the rate. The current forecasts regarding the Fed's interest rate hike are the main driving force of the market. In case of a rise in the price of the greenback, the raw materials sector is experiencing the greatest difficulties. The recent downward trend recorded in the hydrocarbon market demonstrates investors' fear of a possible recession. Market participants fear that the current downturn in the economy will lead to a reduction in demand for raw materials. Experts consider the fact that most commodities are valued in dollars to be another important reason for the decline in the oil market. Take note that the price of benchmark Brent oil peaked in June, and in dollar terms, raw material prices increased by 59%. As the USD rises in price, the global commodity market also increases in value, increasing pressure on demand. Strengthening the greenback not only increases the cost of buying raw materials outside the US, but also encourages foreign producers to sell stocks. The reason is that after converting dollars into national currencies, the incomes of oil producers are steadily growing. The rapid rise of the US currency is able to bring down the hydrocarbon market, experts believe. The current conflict between the USD and the commodity sector is a confirmation of this difficult relationship. According to analysts, the correlation of greenback and oil has always been accompanied by difficulties. Such disagreements put significant pressure on demand. According to International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates, a strong USD, combined with record-high fuel prices, is helping to reduce demand in developing countries.

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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 19/07/2022 The long-awaited correction has finally come true. Although we are not talking about a full-fledged correction, but only about a local one. But even this is quite enough for the market to somewhat correct the resulting imbalances. So the market has prepared for the upcoming meeting of the board of the European Central Bank. But today the single European currency will have to decline somewhat, under pressure from inflation data. The growth rate of consumer prices may accelerate from 8.1% to 8.6%. Given that the issue of raising the refinancing rate has already been closed in principle, inflation data only plays the role of a parameter characterizing the general state of the economy. And judging by the fact that inflation continues to rise, nothing good is happening. Moreover, taking into account the experience of Great Britain, where the Bank of England began to raise the refinancing rate at the end of last year, that the increase in interest rates, all the more so modest, and the ECB plans to raise it from 0.00% to 0.25%, is not much more than will help. Another thing is that today we are talking about the final data, in general, already taken into account by the market at the time of the release of preliminary estimates. So the decline in the single currency will be limited. Inflation (Europe): The euro strengthened by more than 200 points against the US dollar from the local low of the downward trend. Despite the scale of price changes, the euro is still oversold in the medium term, this is indicated by a number of historical values in which the quote is currently located. The oversold status was removed in the short-term and intraday periods, this is indicated by the RSI H1 and H4 indicator, which is moving within the 70 line. The moving MA lines on the Alligator H4 indicators locally changed direction from downward to upward, which corresponds to a rollback-correction in the market. On the trading chart of the daily period, there is a subtle rebound of the price from the area of the parity level. Downward interest in the structure of the medium-term trend is still considered the main direction. Expectations and prospects The volume of long positions decreased at the moment when the price hit 1.0150, as indicated by the stagnation. For the subsequent growth of the euro's value, it is necessary to return above the level of 1.0150. Otherwise, there may be a gradual recovery of dollar positions, with the price returning to the parity level. Complex indicator analysis has a buy signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to a rollback. Technical instruments in the medium term signal a sale due to price movement within the parity level.

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 14.07.2022 As the market had been looking forward to the US inflation data, it neglected the report on the EU industrial production. Remarkably, the data was surprisingly strong. The EU industrial output was expected to rebound by 0.4% in May on year following a contraction of 2.0% in April. Nevertheless, the data for April was downgraded to -2.5%. The actual score for May was much better than expected at 1.6%. Thus, even despite the downward revision, the red-hot reading for May was beyond expectations. However, the single European currency again moved towards the parity level. EU Industrial Producion, y/y Interestingly, immediately after the release of the US CPI, the market was petrified and cameto a standstill. The thing is that the annual rate of consumer inflation surged to 9.1% following 8.6% a month ago. A faster inflation rate was recorded in November 1981. Analysts had projected the CPI at 8.8% in June. Such elevated inflation rates dispelled doubts that the US economy is firmly on the path to recession. Such warnings have been made by a good many economists. After the market had revived after the initial shock, the US dollar tumbled. It looked like a long-awaited drop. Nevertheless, an hour later, the US dollar reversed abruptly upwards and the single European currency again returned to the parity level. Indeed, inflation acceleration bears grave economic risks and forces the US Fed to raise interest rates more aggressively. Hot on the heels of the inflation report, analysts came up with their forecasts. They project that the US Fed will raise the funds rate by 100 basis points at a time at the nearest meeting. So, the federal funds rate will increase from 1.75% to 2.75%. Such forecasts pushed the euro back to parity. US Consumer Price Index, y/y It goes without saying that the US dollar is overbought. The market obviously needs at least acorrection. Still, it has not happened yet. We assume that the euro should go below the parity level with the dollar for a start. Perhaps the US factory inflation data which is due today could push the euro down. The US PPI could have logged an uptick to 10.9% from 10.8%. It would mean that the odds are against a slowdown in consumer inflation at least in the near future. Besides, it will reinforce expectations about the aggressive pace of rate hikes by the US Fed. By and large, the US dollar could push the euro below the parity level and even settle below it. US Producer Price Index, y/y Yesterday, EUR/USD was able to gain some ground but it was not enough to change a trend.As a result, the currency pair again retreated to the parity level and got stuck within a narrow range. The H4 RSI could not grasp the buying interest. The indicator is still hovering in the lower area of 30/50. It means the prevailing selling interest. The D1 RSI is moving in the oversold area which means that short positions are overheated. Moving averages on the H4 and D1 Alligators are directed downwards according to the overall bearish trend. The H1 Alligator has multiple intersections of moving averages, thus indicating a flat market. Outlook and trading tips Despite the fact that the euro is heavily oversold, traders are still interested in selling EUR/USD. The ongoing flat market is viewed as the process of gaining momentum. Once the flat market is over, the trading instrument will burst into sharp price moves. In case the price settles below the parity level on the 4-hour chart, the market will resume the downward cycle, neglecting some technical signals. Under this scenario, we expect the pair to develop an inertial speculative move so that the euro could weaken by another 150-200 pips. At the same time, traders do not rule out a full-fledged correction bearing in mind the euro'soversold status. To generate the first buy signal, the euro has to recover to levels above 1.0100 on the 4-hour chart. Complex indicator analysis provides mixed signals for intraday and short-term trading amid the ongoing range-bound market. Technical instruments signal selling in the medium term because the currency pair is still moving at around the parity level.

Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 13/07/2022 What is happening with the pound should now be considered exclusively through the single European currency, the behavior of which determines the development of events in the foreign exchange market. And in general, everything happened exactly as predicted - as soon as the euro reached parity, a rebound immediately began. Confused only by the scale of the rebound. Less than a hundred points. And this despite the fact that the dollar is simply unimaginably overbought. So it is quite possible that a second attempt will be made today. Moreover, the single currency is again moving towards parity. With that in mind, the just-released UK industrial production figures are irrelevant. Although its growth accelerated from 0.7% to 1.4%. Whereas, a decline of 0.3% was called before. But there was no reaction. Industrial production (UK): Today's attempt at a rebound will be more successful due to the fact that this time its implementation will be helped by a rather serious reason. The US will release its inflation report, which should accelerate from 8.6% to 8.8%. And if earlier the growth of inflation contributed to the dollar's growth, now the situation is somewhat different. Rising consumer prices forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, the expectation of which just contributed to the dollar's growth. Now everything is clear with the increase in the refinancing rate - the US central bank will raise it until the middle of next year. So the only thing that reflects inflation now is only a further deterioration in the state of affairs in the economy and the approach of a recession. Inflation (United States): The GBPUSD currency pair, through a positive correlation with EURUSD, has similar price fluctuations. After the next update of the local low of the downward trend, the quote slowed down around the value of 1.1800, where a rollback eventually occurred. The technical instrument RSI H4 and D1 is moving in the lower area of the 30/50 indicator, which indicates a high interest of traders in the downward move. RSI H1 in the rollback stage locally crossed the middle line 50 upwards. The moving MA lines on the Alligator H4 and D1 indicators are directed downwards, which corresponds to the direction of the main trend. Expectations and prospects In this situation, everything will depend on speculators' behavior on the correlating euro/dollar pair. In the event of a transition to the stage of a full-size correction, the pound will also be able to strengthen its position towards the values of 1.1950-1.2000. Otherwise, we will update the local low of the downward trend again. Comprehensive indicator analysis signals a buy in the short term due to a pullback. Technical instruments in the intraday and medium-term periods signal sell due to price movements within parity.

Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on July 12, 2022 Details of the economic calendar from July 11 Monday was traditionally accompanied by an empty macroeconomic calendar. Important statistics in Europe, the UK, and the United States were not published. Analysis of trading charts from July 11 The EURUSD currency pair, ignoring the oversold signal, continued to decline, indicating a high interest of speculators in the current market situation. The GBPUSD currency pair, following the euro, resumed its decline. The vicious cycle along the psychologically important level of 1.2000 was interrupted, and the market saw an increase in the volume of short positions. As a result, the pound sterling has updated the local low of the downward trend. Economic calendar for July 12 Tuesday is not much different from Monday in terms of the macroeconomic calendar. Important statistics in Europe, the UK, and the United States are not expected. Thus, traders have to keep track of the information flow and work based on the technical picture. Trading plan for EUR/USD on July 12 Traders are now watching a historical event: the quote has come close to parity with the intention of breaking it. Holding the price below it can lead to a local acceleration of the downward cycle. After that, a sharp change in trading interest is possible, caused by an increase in the volume of long positions, which will provoke a technical pullback in the market. Variable and high volatility will remain in the market indefinitely. Trading plan for GBP/USD on July 12 In this situation, everything points to a subsequent downward move towards the values of 1.1700–1.1500. In the work, it is worth considering that at this time, the EURUSD pair is the leading pair, and GBPUSD is the slave pair. Thus, in the event of a sharp change in trading interests in the euro, through a positive correlation, it will pull the pound sterling along with it.

Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on July 11, 2022 Details of the economic calendar from July 8 The report of the US Department of Labor was considered the main macroeconomic event of the past week, where unemployment remained at the same level of 3.6%. At the same time, 372,000 new jobs were created outside of agriculture, while the forecast was 268,000. US labor market data came out noticeably better than expected, but, at this time, the dollar was already heavily overbought. Analysis of trading charts from July 8 During the inertial movement, the EURUSD currency pair came close to parity, which led to a massive fixation of short positions. As a result, the market experienced a technical pullback. The daily trading chart shows a gradual euro depreciation since June 2021. The scale of the decline is 2,150 points, which is about 17%. The GBPUSD currency pair, despite many attempts to resume the downward cycle, still fluctuated along the psychological level of 1.2000 (1.1950/1.2000/1.2050). This indicates an overheating of short positions, which are trying to regroup the trading forces in the stage of a change of turbulence. On the daily timeframe, the pound sterling has been losing 16.5% of its value since June 2021, which is about 2,300 points. Economic calendar for July 11 Monday is traditionally accompanied by an empty macroeconomic calendar. Important statistical indicators in Europe, the United Kingdom, and the United States are not expected. Trading plan for EUR/USD on July 11 In this situation, the descending mood remains among traders. For this reason, keeping the price stable below 1.0150 increases sellers' chances for a subsequent decline (towards parity).At the same time, traders are considering the scenario of a transition from a pullback stage to a complete correction if the price holds above 1.0220 in a four-hour period. Trading plan for GBP/USD on July 11 In this situation, all of the traders' attention is focused on the deviation levels of 1.1950 and 1.2050 since the stable holding of the price outside of one or another value, at least in a four-hour period, may indicate a subsequent price path.

Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on July 8, 2022 Economic calendar for July 8 The main macroeconomic event of the outgoing week is the report of the US Department of Labor, which predicts that the unemployment rate should remain unchanged, while 268,000 new jobs can be created outside of agriculture, which is noticeably less than 390,000 in the previous month. This indicates a loss of recovery momentum and the appearance of signs of the beginning of a deterioration in the situation in the labor market. If expectations coincide, the US dollar may be under pressure from sellers. Time targeting US Department of Labor Report - 12:30 UTC Trading plan for EUR/USD on July 8 There are only a few points left before parity, which means that the speculative hype is increasing. It is worth considering that the initial convergence with such an important psychological level can provoke traders to chaotic price jumps. This may lead to a reduction in the volume of short positions, which will lead to a technical pullback. At the same time, holding the price below the control level may cancel a number of technical signals, which will lead to an inertial move towards the value of 0.98. Trading plan for GBP/USD on July 8 The pound sterling rushed down through a positive correlation with the eurodollar. With the current mood of speculators, updating the local low of the downward trend is not excluded.

Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on July 7 Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair EUR/USD tested 1.0244 on Wednesday. At that time, the MACD line was just starting to move below zero, so the pair fell by more than 50 pips. It hit 1.0198, where buyers became active again, but the increase was only brief. The pair continued to decline after some time. The Euro area's retail sales data for May, along with economic forecasts for the region, disappointed traders as they were relatively weaker than expected. Meanwhile, the business activity report from the IHS Markit exceeded expectations, strengthening the demand for dollar even further. Ahead are key events that could drive the market, such as the release of ECB protocol, speeches of ECB representatives and the publication of industrial production data in Germany. Later in the afternoon, the US will post reports on the labor market, particularly the change in the number of people employed in the non-farm sector and the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits. The two may provide more buying pressure to dollars. US trade surplus figures and speeches by FOMC members are unlikely to have a strong impact on the market. For long positions: Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0228 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0268 (thicker green line on the chart). There is a chance for a rally today, but only after strong statistics in the Euro area and hawkish statements from the ECB. Also, make sure that when buying, the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it. Euro can also be bought at 1.0195, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0228 and 1.0268. For short positions: Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0195 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0151. Pressure will return if upcoming data in Germany and the Euro area are weak and if reports in the US, especially about the labor market, exceed expectations. However, when selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0228, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0195 and 1.0151.

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 06/07/2022 The first full-fledged trading day of the current week began with a strong fall in the single European currency. To the lowest values since 2002. Of course, one can try to explain this by the fears of investors about the inevitability of a recession around the world, but it looks like a farce. After all, they have been talking about the possibility of a recession for more than a day. So this is nothing new. Moreover, the final data on business activity indices turned out to be somewhat better than preliminary estimates. In particular, the index of business activity in the service sector fell from 56.1 points to 53.0 points, while the forecast was 52.8 points. The composite index, which was supposed to fall from 54.8 points to 51.9 points, fell to 52.0 points. However, even the final data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector showed that investors now, in principle, do not look at these data. Composite PMI (Europe): Therefore, the reasons for such a noticeable drop must be sought in somewhat different ways. It's all about the European Central Bank. As early as Monday, the head of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, urged the ECB to be extremely cautious in terms of tightening monetary policy, as higher interest rates would increase the cost of borrowing for the weakest economies in the euro area. Thus, putting them on the brink of bankruptcy. In principle, this statement intersects with the words of the representatives of the ECB themselves that one must be careful when tightening monetary policy, otherwise the result will be completely opposite. And instead of improving the economic situation, it may worsen. Immediately there were rumors that the central bank would very slowly raise the refinancing rate, which would not be enough to slow down inflation. This is what caused the sharp weakening of the euro. And the fact that this happened on Tuesday, and not on Monday, is explained by a non-working day in the United States. So the market confidently returned to the long-lasting trend for the strengthening of the dollar. But after such an impressive fall, a correction is inevitable. That's just the European macroeconomic statistics somehow does not favor any growth of the single European currency. After all, the growth rate of retail sales in Europe should slow down from 3.9% to 3.1%. A decrease in consumer activity only confirms fears about the inevitability of a recession. Retail sales (Europe): Apparently, the reason for the rebound will be the data on open vacancies in the United States, the number of which should decrease from 11.4 million to 11.3 million, which indicates a slight deterioration in the situation in the labor market. But after such an impressive movement as yesterday, even this is enough for a local rebound. The final data on business activity indices, as shown by the experience of recent publications of similar data, will be left without attention, and will not affect investor sentiment in any way. Number of open vacancies (United States): During the inertial movement, the EURUSD currency pair updated the local low of the medium-term downward trend, as a result of which the quote turned out to be at the level of 2002. Due to such a rapid descent, the RSI H4 technical instrument entered the oversold zone, which indicates that short positions are overheated. RSI D1 is still moving in the lower area of the 30/50 indicator, indicating continued downward interest among traders. The moving MA lines on the Alligator H4 and D1 indicators are directed downwards, this is a sell signal. Expectations and prospects In this situation, the speculative hype is going through the roof on the market, which can lead to ignoring the signal about the euro being oversold. As a result, the downward move may accelerate towards the value of 1.0150-1.0000. It should be noted that sooner or later short positions will be consolidated, which will lead to a technical correction. Complex indicator analysis has a sell signal in the short, intraday and medium term due to the downward cycle.

King dollar tightening its grip across board. EUR to reach parity level soon? The euro traded quietly on the first day of the week amid the holiday-thinned market. On Tuesday, the euro again came under selling pressure. EUR/USD dropped to 1.0300, the lowest level sinceDecember 2002. In this connection, speculations on its parity level with the US dollar resurfaced among traders. There are a few reasons behind the euro's fall. The major reason was the fact that the EU reported a deficit in its trade balance. On Monday, Germany unveiled the first deficit for more than 30 years in the trade balance in May in monthly terms. Energy imports sharply increased whereas trade with Russia and China was disrupted. A worse trade balance in Germany drags the whole euro block down. Currency strategists consider downbeat trade results the most plausible explanation for the euro's decline. Indeed, it means a crucially different macroeconomic environment for the euro block. A double proficit turned into a double deficit. Therefore, the Eurozone driven by the largest economy of Germany becomes a net importer which creates fundamental pressure on the euro. Apparently, Europe's prospects don't look rosy. Experts at Commerzbank reckon that EUR/USD could slump even below the parity level for a variety of reasons, including gas issues. The crisis in petroleum imports is likely to leave its imprint on theEU economy. In turn, EUR/USD will be able to develop a steady rally provided that the gas crisis is settled. ECB and euro Lately, the ECB comes up with hawkish remarks, but it is not enough to support the euro. The regulator is acting sluggishly in normalizing its monetary policy Even if the ECB ventured into the first rate hike and raises the key policy rate to positive values, it is still lagging behind other major central banks. They have already made some moves towards tighter monetary policies. In this context, the euro lacks an advantage over other currencies compared to the period until 2013. The ECB's obvious hawkish stance has been spotted by analysts and priced in. Later this month,the regulator is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. Market participants are anticipating the same rate hike in September. What will happen next? Further policy decisions will depend on how the central banks manage to tame inflation and how CPIs will slow down in the coming months. Most experts hardly believe in more aggressive tightening by the ECB. By and large, it doesn'tmatter a lot bearing in mind the US dollar's stunning rally. US dollar The US dollar index is trading at the highest level in almost two decades, aiming to settleabove 106.00. The greenback finds support from cautious market sentiment followingthe long weekend in the US. The king dollar has been reigning on Forex for quite a while. Nevertheless, the US dollar cannot extend its rally indefinitely. Sooner or later, the US dollar is set to reach a peak and retrace downward. Nobody has predicted the level when the US dollar index will level off. Historically, the greenback used to grow amid three fundamental factors: global inflation of more than 5%, a slowdown in the global economic growth, and joint monetary tightening by influential central banks. The last time when these three factors came together was in 1980. On the back of the ongoing macroeconomic situation in the world's economy, namely, weak economic growth and soaring inflation, the US dollar is set to flex its muscles. A lot of reputable analysts are poised to predict the euro's slump to 1.0200 against the US dollar later this year. Pound sterling On Tuesday, the British currency was also weighed down by the firm US dollar, though thesterling was not as bruised as the euro. GBP/USD went to around 1.2000. However, the pair is unlikely to break this level at present. Currency strategists at UOB Group rejected this scenario today. They believe the odds are against that GBP/USD will make another test of 1.1970. The currency pair is expected to consolidate between 1.2080 and 1.2170. Notably, the lower border of the expected trading range has been already broken today. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is following the overall bearish trend. Suggesting their bearish forecastson the sterling, experts at JPMorgan underpin their argument with the fact that inflation in the UK is the highest in G10. Moreover, the UK economic growth would be below the GDP figures of most advanced economies. Domestic jitters are denting the outlook for the pound sterling. The Bank of England will hardly succeed in reducing downward pressure on the British pound. Among other gloomy prospects for the UK economy is that inflation is unlikely to reach its peak until October. JPMorgan experts reckon that the CPI will approach 11% on year in the autumn. The Bank of England signaled that it is ready to speed up rate hikes and raise the key policy rate by 50 basis points at the nearest meeting. On the other hand, some analysts suggest weighty reasons why the central bank will retain its gradual pace of monetary tightening. In other words, the pound sterling has not a single factor for a gradual recovery. For the time being, the US dollar is extending its stunning rally. So, it is unclear when exactly it will top out.

Trading plan for EURUSD on July 04, 2022 Technical outlook: EURUSD dropped through the 1.0380 lows on Friday before reversing sharply. The single currency pair is seen to be trading close to 1.0430 at this point in writing and is expected to target close to 1.1100 in the next few weeks. Bulls are required to hold prices above the 1.0350 interim support to keep the proposed structure intact. EURUSD has been dropping from the 1.2350 high since January 2021, carving lower lows and lower highs. The recent downswing could be seen between 1.2266 and 1.0350 as marked on the daily chart. Ideally, prices should retrace the above recent boundary at least until the 1.1086-1.1100 area, which is the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement level. EURUSD further produced a lower-degree upswing between 1.0350 and 1.0786 in May 2022. Since then, it has remained subdued oscillating broadly between 1.0380 and 1.0600 and needs to breakout. A push above 1.0600 will be quite encouraging for the bulls to come back in control and push through 1.1100 going forward. Trading plan: Potential rally towards 1.1100 against 1.0350 Good luck!

Changes to the trading schedule – July 2022 Dear Clients, We’d like to inform you about some changes in the trading schedule in connection with the public holidays celebrated in some countries. Please consider the following changes that will take place on July 1 and July 4, 2022 and plan your activities accordingly: CFDs on US stocks – closed CFDs on US stock indices – closed Spot Metals and Futures Energy – early close at 8 p.m. Best regards, ForexMart team

Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 24, 2022 Details of the economic calendar from June 23 Preliminary data on business activity indices were published in Europe, the UK, and the United States, which had a strong impact on financial markets. Europe's manufacturing PMI fell significantly stronger than the forecast from 54.6 to 52.0 points. Meanwhile, things are even worse for the services PMI, which fell from 56.1 to 52.8 points. The European currency at this time was under a strong division of sellers. As for the UK, things are a little better. The manufacturing index fell from 54.6 to 54.2 points against the forecast of 53.4 points. In the services sector, the indicators remained unchanged, although the index was expected to decline from 53.4 points to 52.8 points. The pound sterling was under less pressure, but due to a positive correlation with the euro, it still lost value. During the American trading session, weekly data on jobless claims in the US were first published, where a slight increase in the overall indicator was recorded. This is a negative factor for the labor market. Statistics details: The volume of continuing claims for benefits increased from 1.310 million to 1.315 million. The volume of initial claims for benefits decreased from 231,000 to 229,000. The main figures for the US were published a little later. The manufacturing index of business activity decreased from 57.0 to 52.4 points, with a forecast of 52.4 points. Meanwhile, the services sector decreased from 53.4 to 51.6 points, with a forecast of 53.5 points. Negative statistics on the United States had a negative impact on the dollar. Analysis of trading charts from June 23 The EURUSD currency pair once again reduced the volume of short positions around the support level of 1.0500. This led to a slowdown in the downward cycle and, as a result, a price rebound. The GBPUSD currency pair has been moving within a wide range of 1.2150/1.2320 for a week now. This price fluctuation indicates a slowdown in the corrective move from the area of the psychological level of 1.2000, while at the same time signaling a characteristic uncertainty among traders. Economic calendar for June 24 Today, since the opening of the European session, data on retail sales were published, where the rate of decline slowed down from -5.7% to -4.7%. This is a positive factor if it were not for the revision of the previous indicators for the worse from -4.9% to 5.7%. A stronger slowdown in the rate of decline to -4.1% is also predicted. The bottom line shows bad statistics, which negatively affects the British currency. Trading plan for EUR/USD on June 24 The price movement within the range of 1.0500/1.0600 attracts a lot of attention of speculators, which corresponds to the process of accumulation of trading forces. As a result, the closed loop will complete the formation, which will lead to acceleration and indicate the subsequent path relative to the range. A signal to action will appear at the moment when the price stays outside one or another border in the daily period. Trading plan for GBP/USD on June 24 The price movement within the flat is still relevant in the market, so another price rebound from its upper border cannot be ruled out. As the main strategy, traders consider the tactics of breaking through one or another frame of the established range. Trading recommendations are based on the breakout tactics: Buy positions on the currency pair are taken into account after holding the price above the value of 1.2325 in a four-hour period with the prospect of a move to 1.2400. Sell positions should be considered after holding the price below 1.2150 in a four-hour period with the prospect of a move to 1.2000.

Changes in trading conditions for the symbol #FB.p Dear clients, Please be informed that due to the change of the Meta Platforms Inc stock ticker, trading on the symbol #FB.p is switched to the «Close only» mode. The new symbol #META.p is already available for trading in normal regime. Please take into account the new information when planning your trading activity. Best regards, ForexMart team

Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 23, 2022 US President Joe Biden asked Congress to introduce a gas tax holiday for only three months, which is far less than expected. He also requested to try to avoid cuts to the highway fund, adding that the fuel tax will continue to finance the construction and maintenance of roads. This is worrying because the budget deficit is already almost $ 1.6 trillion, and Biden's proposal will certainly push it higher. Congress has not responded, but they accepted the proposal for consideration. Unsurprisingly, dollar demand fell because, given November's congressional and Senate elections, there is little doubt that this measure will be taken. In terms of euro, there is a high chance that it will decline during the European trading session because preliminary estimates of business activity indices are down. In particular, the manufacturing index is expected to fall from 54.6 points to 54.0 points. The service index is also projected to dip from 56.1 points to 55.8 points, and the composite PMI to decrease from 54.8 to 54.2. Composite PMI (Europe): Similarly, preliminary estimates to business activity in the UK also show a decrease. The manufacturing index is expected to fall from 54.6 points to 54.2 points, while the service index is projected to go down from 53.4 points to 52.8 points. The composite index is also likely to decrease from 53.1 points to 52.3 points. Composite PMI (UK): But during the US trading session, the market will return to the levels hit at the opening of the trading day. After all, the US is also expected to report declines in all its indices of business activity. The manufacturing index will drop from 57.0 points to 56.0 points, while the services sector will decrease from 53.4 points to 53.0 points. The composite index will fall from 53.6 points to 52.8 points. Composite PMI (United States): In short, the market will fluctuate throughout the day, but close with zero result. EUR/USD rushed up, prolonging the current corrective move. 1.0600 serves as a variable resistance on the way of buyers, relative to which a short-term stagnation-rollback has occurred. For the subsequent upward move, the quote needs to hold above 1.0600 in the four-hour TF. Despite the strong buying pressure, GBP/USD remains within 1.2170/1.2320. In this situation, traders must first overcome one or another boundary of the established range, and only then talk about the direction. Signals will occur in the four-hour TF.

Technical analysis recommendations on EUR/USD and GBP/USD for June 22, 2022 EUR/USD Higher timeframes The area 1.0539 – 1.0582, which united many significant resistances of the higher timeframes, continues to hold back the development of the upward movement. To gain new targets, bulls should eliminate the daily death cross (1.0501 – 1.0522 – 1.0573 – 1.0624), enlist the support of the weekly short-term trend (1.0583) and enter the daily cloud (1.0558). For bears, the targets remain the same, which are the local lows 1.0339 and 1.0349. H4 – H1 Bulls are still having a hard time developing their advantage on the lower timeframes. For several days now, they have been interacting with key supports, being in their zone of attraction. Consolidation below and reversal of the moving average (1.0500—weekly long-term trend) will change the current balance of power, and then bullish interests may be replaced by opportunities for strengthening bearish sentiment. GBP/USD Higher timeframes Bulls fail to develop a rebound. As a result, the pair continues to consolidate in the zone of attraction of the daily Ichimoku cross (Tenkan 1.2225 – Kijun 1.2300). The most significant resistance of this section is now at the level of 1.2388 (the final level of the daily cross + weekly short-term trend). The reference points for a bearish trend are 1.2000 (psychological level) – 1.1933 (local low). Overcoming these levels may change the current balance of power. H4 – H1 Bulls had been in possession of the key levels of the lower timeframes for a long time, but failed to develop their advantage. Today, an attempt is being made to change the balance of power, perhaps the opponent, having seized the key levels 1.2232–79 (central pivot point of the level of the day + weekly long-term trend), will be more effective.

AUD skyrockets post-RBA Minutes Two weeks ago, the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly lifted interest rates by 50 basis points. AUD/USD soared after the announcement. No wonder, the Minutes of the meeting triggered a similar reaction. The Aussie dollar went up even before the release of the RBA Minutes. Yesterday, the currency strengthened by 0.3% to 0.69675 versus the US dollar on hawkish expectations. According to the June report published on Tuesday, the central bank considered a 0.25% or 0.5% rate hike. RBA policymakers voted in favor of the latter one to curb inflation faster. AUD/USD extended gains following RBA Governor Philip Lowe's hawkish comments. The RBA chief saw inflation at 7% by the end of the year, well above the long-term target rate. He reaffirmed further monetary tightening due to growing inflationary pressure. "As we chart our way back to 2% to 3% inflation, Australians should be prepared for more interest rate increases," warned Lowe in a speech. "The level of interest rates is still very low for an economy with low unemployment and that is experiencing high inflation." At the same time, the official made it clear that the RBA would not follow the Fed's suit. Last week, the US central bank lifted rates by 0.75% for the first time since 1994. "At the moment, the decision we will take is either 25 or 50 again at the next meeting," Mr. Lowe said. By the end of July, the Australian regulator will see the release of Q2 inflation. Therefore, the RBA may well stay hawkish in August. The bank will also update the economic growth forecast by the August meeting. Some analysts say these data could affect the pace of rate increases needed to tame inflation. The interest rate is now seen at around 3.7% by the end of the year. To reach the target, the central bank should go for the most dramatic monetary tightening in its modern history. Such a scenario would hit consumer spending hard and even lead to a slowdown in economic growth, thus harming the Australian dollar. In addition, global recession risks are growing as the world's biggest central banks are hiking rakes. A slowdown in global economic growth could be a serious obstacle to the commodity currency in the long term. "We forecast AUD/USD will spend most of the next twelve months in a 0.60-0.70 range," the Commonwealth Bank Of Australia said in a note.

The steep rise of the franc and the crushing fall of the yen Yesterday, Switzerland made a knight's move, unexpectedly raising rates by 50 bps. Against this background, expectations of the Bank of Japan's capitulation sharply increased. But the BOJ still decided to stand on its own. In the outgoing week, two major central banks, whose monetary policy remained super-soft in the face of total tightening, decided to go their separate ways. On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank made a shocking decision to raise interest rates. And this morning, the BOJ finally dispelled rumors about a possible rise in the indicator. Franc rejoices: SNB takes a hawkish a path Yesterday's decision by the Swiss central bank on interest rates produced a bombshell effect on the markets. Of course, many expected that the SNB could decide to increase the indicator in conditions of increased inflation. But did anyone think that it could literally turn from a quiet dove into an aggressive hawk overnight? The Swiss bank immediately raised the rate by half a percentage point, to 0.25%. The central bank has tightened its monetary policy for the first time in 15 years, hoping to contain inflation, which threatens to get out of control. Currently, inflation in the country is 2.4% and, according to SNB forecasts, may reach 2.8% by the end of the year. This is significantly higher than the agency's target range of 2%. The shocking rise in the rate by 50 bps provoked the sharpest growth of the franc in the last seven years. The Swiss currency has risen by almost 3% against the dollar. The franc also strengthened significantly against the euro. The single currency dropped to 1.0131, showing the strongest drop since June 2016. Recall that the results of the Brexit referendum were published then. Now analysts expect a further rise of the Swiss currency against the dollar and the franc reaching parity with the euro, as the SNB said that further tightening may be required to combat inflation. The yen is stormy: BOJ chooses a dovish route Interestingly, the rise in rates in Switzerland not only triggered the franc rally, but also gave a short-term boost to the yen. Yesterday, the Japanese currency rose more than 1% against the dollar and reached a 2-week high. The increased threat of a global recession partially contributed to the strengthening of the protective asset. Investors fear that a series of rate hikes, which this week has been remembered for, will provoke a slowdown in global economic growth. Recall that on Wednesday the Fed raised rates by 75 bps, and on Thursday the Bank of England (by 25 bps) and the SNB (by 50 bps) reported an increase in the indicator. The most unexpected, as we have already noted above, was the decision of the Swiss central bank. After the surprise it presented, speculation increased significantly that the BOJ would go the same way. However, this did not happen. On Friday morning, the BOJ announced that it continues easing monetary policy and keeps interest rate targets unchanged. This choice left the BOJ completely alone. While other major central banks are tightening their policies to curb rising inflation, the Japanese central bank decides to focus on supporting the economy affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The market's reaction to the BOJ's dovish tactics is absolutely logical. Today, the yen is falling as rapidly as it rose yesterday. At the time of preparation of the material, the yen plunged by almost 1% against the dollar and was trading again at a 24-year low of 134. Experts predict that in the near future we will see a further depreciation of the yen, which may cause even more damage to the economy, which is heavily dependent on imports of fuel and raw materials.The fact that uncertainty about the Japanese economy is extremely high is also stated in today's BOJ statement. Therefore, it would not be surprising if the regulator decides to turn off the beaten track at its next meeting...

Storm warning for USD/JPY USD/JPY went on a rollercoaster ride yesterday after the US Federal Reserve raised rates by 75bp. Don't loosen your belts as more course turbulence is expected in the coming days The US central bank's decision did not come as a surprise to the markets. The latest jump in the US consumer price index to 8.6% made it clear that the Fed intends to tighten its grip. As predicted, at Wednesday's meeting the central bank raised interest rates by 75 bp. The fact that the Fed went for the biggest increase in the rate since 1994 sent the dollar skyrocketing in almost every direction. However, a little later on the charts, the opposite situation was already observed. The greenback dipped just as steeply as investors weighed in on the US central bank's rate plans. Politicians lowered inflation expectations for both the current year and 2023, and also hinted at the next rate hike by either 50 bp or 75 bp. The Fed's rejection of the possibility of a 100 bp rate hike literally plunged the dollar. The USD/JPY fell to 133.75, after hitting a new 24-year high of 135.50 in previous deals. This morning, the yen turned around again and took the already familiar downward route. The Japanese currency returned to the lowest level since 1998 at 135. Meanwhile, currency strategists note that in the short term the dollar-yen pair will remain highly volatile, and warn of even greater exchange rate turbulence. Ahead and after the 2-day meeting of the Bank of Japan, which will be held on June 16-17, the range of fluctuations of the USD/JPY pair may be at least 7 points. According to experts, during this period, the yen will trade from 131.05 to 138.08 per dollar. Thus, its weekly volatility will approach the highest level since 2020. The jumps in the rate will be due to the ambiguous expectations of the market regarding the further policy of the Japanese central bank. As you know, BOJ stands out among its colleagues with its ardent commitment to a soft monetary rate. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda continues to insist that it is too early to cut stimulus and raise rates, because inflation in the country remains relatively moderate. In April, consumer prices in Japan exceeded the BOJ target of 2% for the first time in seven years and reached 2.1% year on year. Nevertheless, in the future, Kuroda does not expect a significant increase in inflation. And until recently, this confidence has helped him stick to a dovish line, despite the global tightening trend. However, can the head of the BOJ continue in the same vein amid the ongoing depreciation of the yen? The decline in the Japanese currency has already significantly worsened the position of the world's third largest economy and overshadowed its prospects. This morning, the Japanese government announced that in May the country faced the largest increase in the trade deficit in eight years. Imports rose 48.9% year-on-year last month, outpacing exports by 15.8%, according to Japan's Ministry of Finance data. This resulted in a trade deficit of 2.385 trillion yen ($17.80 billion). The trade balance with a negative balance testifies to the widespread consumption of foreign goods, the value of which continues to rise steadily. This exacerbates the already sad situation of Japanese consumers, suffering from rising energy and food prices. Therefore, it is possible that Kuroda may change his mind dramatically and throw out a surprise tomorrow. Given his behavior in the past, this is quite likely. As a reminder, before settling on the current policy, which is known as yield curve control, in 2016 the official shocked the markets with an unexpected move to negative interest rates. Some analysts do not rule out the BOJ's surrender in the near future. If Kuroda gives even the slightest hint that he intends to reduce his asset purchases or raise rates, this will further increase the volatility of the market. In this case, we should expect a big sale of Japanese bonds, a sharp increase in their yield and, as a result, an increase in demand for the yen. According to experts, a change in the yield curve control policy could lead to a fall in the USD/JPY pair by 3-4% from the current level. And if Kuroda declares on Friday that he remains true to his position, we will be able to see the continuation of the rally of this currency pair. Analysts at Credit Suisse expect the greenback to rise to 142 against the yen.

Trading Signal for GOLD (XAU/USD) on June 14-15, 2022: buy above $1,812 (2/8 Murray - oversold) XAU/USD came under bearish pressure after falling below the 200 EMA (1,849) and ended the American session reaching a low of 1808.93 In less than 24 hours from the high of 1878.74 to the low of 1808.93, gold fell by approximately $70. This is a sign that risk aversion is increasing and investors will continue to take refuge in the US dollar. Investors are worried that the Fed may hike the interest rate by 0.75%. As a result, the stock markets declined along with gold and cryptocurrencies. A technical rebound is expected in the next few hours as gold is in an oversold zone. However, as long as it fails to consolidate above the 200 EMA located at 1,849, it will only be a pullback to resume the downtrend correction. In the early Asian session, XAU/USD is trading at 1,824 and after having found a strong bounce above 2/8 Murray. The technical bounce is likely to continue in the next few hours and may reach the 21 SMA around 1,838. In case of a test of the level of 2/8 Murray, gold is likely to return to the zone of 1,812. We should wait for a consolidation above this level to buy with targets at 1,830, and 1,838. It could reach the 200 EMA at 1,849. In the Asian session, the eagle indicator touched the oversold zone. It means that a technical rebound will occur in the next few hours. it may be an opportunity to buy above 1,812. On the contrary, if gold resumes its downtrend and trades below 1,812 it could continue its downward movement and could reach the psychological level of 1,800 and the low of May 16 at 1786.70 Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy gold at current price levels around 1,824 or in case of a bounce at 1,812 to buy with targets at 1,838 and 1,849.

Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 10, 2022 Details of the economic calendar from June 9 The European Central Bank (ECB) expectedly kept the base interest rate at the same level. The ECB also said that it intends to raise the rate in July. This became the main topic during the meeting as this will be the first time the regulator will raise the rate since 2011. It is expected that the regulator will raise the rate by 0.25%. The market reaction to this announcement was not so rosy. Perhaps investors were expecting a stronger rate hike. The main theses of the ECB: The ECB, as expected, kept the base rate at zero, and the deposit rate at minus 0.5%. The ECB will end the asset purchase programme (APP) on 1 July. The ECB intends to raise its base rate by 0.25% in July. The ECB forecasts eurozone GDP growth of 2.8% in 2022, 2.1% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024. The ECB intends to gradually raise the base rate after September. The ECB forecasts eurozone inflation at 6.8% in 2022, 3.5% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024. The ECB plans a second rate hike in September, the pace of its rise will depend on inflation. At the same time as the press conference, data on jobless claims in the United States was released which recorded an increase in the overall rate. This is a negative factor for the US labor market, but in connection with the comments of the ECB that coincided at that time, the dollar did not react in any way to the negative on the applications. Statistics details: The volume of continuing claims for benefits decreased slightly from 1.309 million to 1.306 million. The volume of initial claims for benefits increased from 202,000 to 229,000. Analysis of trading charts from June 9 The EURUSD currency pair has covered more than 120 points during an intense downward momentum. This movement led to the breakdown of the lower border of the side channel 1.0636/1.0800. Based on the behavior of the price, we can state the fact of speculation in this period of time. The GBPUSD currency pair rushed down through a positive correlation with the European currency. This led to another convergence of the price with the lower border of the side channel 1.2450/1.2500. Economic calendar for June 10 Today, the focus will be on inflation data in the United States, where it is predicted that the consumer price index will remain at the same level—8.3%. In some ways, this is a positive signal that indicates a slowdown in the rate of inflation. The US dollar is likely to receive a local incentive to strengthen. Time targeting Inflation in the USA - 12:30 UTC Trading plan for EUR/USD on June 10 The technical pullback is still relevant in the market due to the local overheating of short positions in the euro. This movement can temporarily return the quote to the boundaries of the previously passed flat. The next downward movement is expected in the market after holding the price below 1.0600. This move will lead to a gradual recovery of dollar positions relative to the recent corrective move. Trading plan for GBP/USD on June 10 The price movement within the flat is still relevant in the market, so another price rebound from its lower border cannot be ruled out. As the main strategy, traders consider the tactics of breaking through one or another frame of the established range. Trading recommendations are based on the breakdown tactics: Buy positions on the currency pair are taken into account after holding the price above the value of 1.2600 in a four-hour period with the prospect of a move to 1.2660-1.2720. Sell positions should be considered after holding the price below 1.2450 in a four-hour period with the prospect of a move to 1.2350-1.230.

Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 07/06/2022 Even before the opening of the US trading session, the dollar began to steadily strengthen its positions, which is quite strange. After all, the macroeconomic calendar is completely empty. Basically, just like today. In addition, there was also nothing in the news background that could somehow affect the development of events. It turns out that what happened most likely lies in the plane of technical factors. Which in general is not surprising, since amid the absence of obvious fundamental factors, the market is switching to technical ones. Also, such a situation may hint at the lack of market participants' faith in the prospects of Europe as a whole. After all, representatives of the European Central Bank are already directly talking about the imminent increase in the refinancing rate, which should be the first since 2011, and which should contribute to the strengthening of the euro. However, the general state of the European economy, along with the increasing risks of energy shortages, which are most acute in front of the eurozone, cause more and more concerns. What is the trip of Olaf Scholz to Africa worth, in order to find alternative sources of supply, after the European Union's decision to abandon Russian energy carriers. It is quite obvious that even if Europe can find a replacement for Russian oil and gas, it will cost much more. And this is despite the fact that inflation is not even slowing down, and fuel prices are higher than ever before. In such circumstances, it is difficult to feel a sense of optimism about the European economy. Since the beginning of June, the GBPUSD currency pair has been stubbornly trying to change the trading interest from an upward cycle to a downward one. This is indicated by the price consistently reaching the support area of 1.2450/1.2500. The RSI H4 technical instrument is moving to the lower area of the 30/50 indicator, which indicates traders' prevailing interest in short positions. RSI D1 is moving within the deviation of the 50 middle line, which indicates a slowdown in the corrective move. The moving MA lines on the Alligator H4 are directed downwards. This is a signal to sell the pound. Alligator D1 has interlacing between the MA lines, which indicates a slowdown in the upward cycle. On the trading chart of the daily period, there is a corrective move from the pivot point of 1.2155, which fits into the clock component of the downward trend. The resistance area of 1.2670/1.2720 is on the correction path as resistance. Expectations and prospects We can assume that the long absence of updating the local high indicates the completion of the corrective move. The main signal to sell the pound is when the price stands firm below 1.2450 for at least a four-hour period. In this case, we will see a gradual recovery of dollar positions. A complex indicator analysis has a sell signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to the price movement within the support area. Indicators in the medium term have a variable signal due to the slowdown in the corrective move.