KostiaForexMart

Market at crossroads amid tensions: How investors are saving themselves in an era of uncertainty Nasdaq slows down as investors ponder The tech-heavy Nasdaq ended Wednesday in the red, breaking the day's upward move. The reason was the growing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as weak financial results from Target. Investors were anxiously awaiting the release of Nvidia's quarterly results, which, however, fell short of inflated expectations. Dow in the green, S&P 500 is flat The Dow Jones managed to finish the session higher, while the S&P 500 remained virtually unchanged. Meanwhile, morning trading began with a general decline - the news of Ukraine using British Storm Shadow missiles on Russian territory stirred up the markets. This happened immediately after the announcement of the launch of American ATACMS missiles, which prompted Russia to announce a reduction in the nuclear threshold. "Fear scale" at a maximum since 2020 The Wall Street VIX volatility index, known as the "fear scale", rose to 18.79, which was a record since November 2020, and then fell to 17.24. Despite the pullback, anxiety in the markets remains high. "After yesterday's strong rally in the tech sector, today the market switched to a more defensive mode," said James Regan, head of research at D.A. Davidson. Nvidia: High Expectations Disappointed The quarterly earnings report from AI chipmaker Nvidia was the highlight of the evening. The company's shares were down 0.76% during the session and fell further after the close. Despite a fourth-quarter revenue forecast that beat analysts' average estimates, investors were expecting more. The market, which has seen a strong rally, is once again faced with a choice between risk and caution as global events add uncertainty. Tech Under Pressure: Nasdaq Slightly Down The information technology sector was under pressure, ending the session down 0.23%, which affected overall investor sentiment. The tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.11%, showing that confidence in the segment has weakened somewhat. Target: Drops in Gift Season Target shares plunged 21.4% after the company issued holiday sales and profit guidance that fell short of analysts' expectations. The company's weak third-quarter results added to investor disappointment. Target's decline also weighed on the consumer discretionary index, which lost 0.57% on the day and was the worst performer in the sector. Tesla and Amazon are down Tesla shares fell 1.15% and Amazon lost 0.85%, indicating that investors are taking a cautious approach to growth assets. These companies, which had previously been leaders in their segments, are now facing more subdued expectations. Indices: Mixed Results Among the major indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to rise 139.53 points (+0.32%), closing at 43,408.47. The S&P 500 showed almost zero dynamics, adding a symbolic 0.13 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 21.32 points (-0.11%) to 18,966.14. Nvidia: a leader or a source of risk? Despite the decline in Nvidia shares during the last session, its annual dynamics remain impressive: since the beginning of the year, the shares have almost tripled their value. According to BofA Global Research, this has brought about 20% of the return of the entire S&P 500 index over the past 12 months. Artificial intelligence: prospects and challenges "Companies are starting to share successful cases of using AI, showing how investments in new technologies bring additional income or help reduce costs," analysts comment. However, investors are cautious, preferring to wait for confirmation of the sustainability of these trends. The market is entering a new phase where high expectations collide with the reality of results, and geopolitical instability continues to shape sentiment. MicroStrategy and MARA Holdings: Rapid Growth MicroStrategy shares soared by 10%, while MARA Holdings showed an even more impressive growth of 13.9%. These companies linked to the cryptocurrency sector received support amid improving investor sentiment and growing interest in digital assets. Central Bank: December Intrigue Traders have increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates at its December meeting. This opinion was formed amid the publication of strong economic data that shows the economy is stable despite persistent inflation. NYSE and Nasdaq: The odds are stacked against the downside On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), decliners outnumbered gainers by a 1.24-to-1 ratio, with 184 new highs and 94 new lows. On the Nasdaq, the story is similar: 2,245 stocks fell, compared to 2,007 gainers, for a ratio of 1.12-to-1. The S&P 500 posted 30 new 52-week highs and 13 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 92 new highs and 163 new lows, underscoring the overall trend of uncertainty in the market. Trading Activity: Volumes Decline Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges was 13.2 billion shares, below the 20-day average of 14.32 billion. This indicates some caution among traders in the current market conditions. Global Markets: Balancing Act On the international stage, stocks showed a moderate decline, as traders continued to take into account the growing geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West. Meanwhile, Bitcoin set a new record, demonstrating investor confidence in cryptocurrencies. The dollar also strengthened after three days of decline, which became an additional signal of a change in sentiment in the currency markets. The financial world once again demonstrates a complex interplay of factors, where global events, economic data and central bank actions are intertwined into a complex picture of uncertainty. Market ends the session with variable dynamics The S&P 500 index ended trading virtually unchanged, reflecting neutral investor sentiment. The Dow Jones turned out to be in the green, while the Nasdaq showed a decline, continuing the correction after the recent rally. Among the leaders of growth, shares of companies from the healthcare, energy and materials sectors stood out. In contrast, consumer staples, financials and technology stocks were weak, becoming the session's main losers. Global indices: moderate decline The MSCI All-World Index, which measures the overall performance of global markets, fell 0.16% to 847.84. European stocks also ended the day lower, although the decline was minimal, down 0.02%. Nvidia: pressure from high expectations Investors were watching Nvidia shares closely, which came under some pressure after the release of quarterly results. Despite the decline, the situation was not catastrophic, said James St. Aubyn, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management. "Nvidia remains a key player in the market, but expectations are rising each quarter and they are becoming increasingly difficult to meet. We are at that point where high expectations are starting to put pressure," St. Aubyn added. Outlook: Market at a crossroads The session showed that market participants remained cautious, balancing expectations for further growth with concerns related to geopolitics and corporate results. Global stocks reflected the general tension, with investors weighing local and global risk factors. This week promises to be eventful, and the coming days may provide clearer signals about the direction of markets in the near future. Gold and bonds: a safe haven for investors Gold and government bond prices continued to rise on Tuesday, as markets reacted to the escalation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Such news caused increased demand for safe assets. Gold: triumph of the third session Gold prices reached a weekly high, continuing to rise for the third trading session in a row. Spot gold increased by 0.69%, reaching $2,649.89 per ounce. U.S. gold futures showed a similar gain of 0.8%, reaching $2,651.70. The rise in gold prices reflects investors' appetite for conservative strategies amid global instability. Treasury Secretary Appointment: Intrigue in Focus Also in focus is Donald Trump's choice for Treasury Secretary, which is expected to be announced as early as Wednesday. "The market is recognizing that some of Trump's policies, such as tariffs and deportations, carry inflation risks," said Lukasz Tomicki, co-founder of LRT Capital in Austin, Texas. Bond yields have risen sharply since the election, confirming market participants' expectations. Dollar: Recovering from Losses The dollar index rose 0.54% to 106.68, snapping a three-day losing streak, although current levels remain below a one-year high. The dollar also gained against key currencies, up 0.48% against the yen to 155.40 and 0.2% against the Swiss franc to 0.88410. The dollar index has gained nearly 3% since the November 5 election, underscoring confidence in the U.S. economy. Global markets are on hold: geopolitical tensions, monetary policy and personnel decisions in the US continue to influence asset movements. The latest statements and actions by leaders can radically change the trajectory of investor sentiment. Yuan under pressure: the market reacts to the central bank's decision The Chinese yuan weakened against the dollar after the People's Bank of China decided to leave its base lending rates unchanged, as analysts had predicted. In the offshore market, the yuan lost 0.22%, falling to 7.251 per dollar. Such a decline reflects the general caution of investors in the context of stable monetary policy in China. Bitcoin: a new ascent to records The cryptocurrency surprised the markets again, reaching a new record level just below $95,000. During the last session, the price of bitcoin rose by 2.53%, reaching $94,579.01. Bitcoin has risen more than 30% since Donald Trump was elected. Market participants attribute this growth to expectations of more favorable regulation of the cryptocurrency sector under the new administration. Trump and Bakkt: a signal for the cryptocurrency market Bitcoin received an additional boost from a Financial Times report that Trump Media and Technology Group, which owns the social network Truth Social, is close to acquiring all shares of the Bakkt cryptocurrency trading platform. This news has increased speculation about Trump's possible influence on the development of digital assets. Oil: prices continue to fall Oil prices fell, reflecting excess crude and gasoline inventories in the United States, which turned out to be higher than expected. Brent crude futures for January delivery fell 0.68%, closing at $72.81 per barrel. WTI contracts for December delivery ended the session down 0.75%, reaching $68.87 per barrel. The more active January WTI contract also showed a decline of 0.71%, closing at $68.75. Markets balance between news Market participants continue to closely monitor news from China, the crypto industry and the commodities sector. The influence of global economic policy and unexpected corporate events, such as a possible deal around Bakkt, create high volatility and intrigue, which creates unique opportunities for investors. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

The main events by the morning: November 20 The United States will not change its nuclear policy, despite changes in Russian doctrine. According to Bloomberg, a Pentagon spokesman said that the United States has no data indicating that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The changes in the Russian nuclear doctrine, according to Pentagon officials, did not come as a surprise to Washington. Biden approved the supply of anti-personnel mines to Ukraine, which are prohibited by an international agreement. The United States made this decision to help Ukrainian troops deter the advance of Russian troops. The shipments include mines that are subject to the prohibitions of the Ottawa Convention, signed by 164 countries, including the United States and Russia. Japan and China continue to actively sell American government bonds. Japanese investors sold a record $61.9 billion of U.S. bonds in the three months ended September 30, and Chinese funds disposed of $51.3 billion worth of treasuries over the same period. Experts attribute these actions to the expectations of Donald Trump's return to power. Vladimir Putin will visit India to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Against this background, Bloomberg noted the failure of US efforts to isolate Russia on the world stage. At the same time, Washington cannot put pressure on India, as it considers it a key ally in the confrontation with China. Trump may lift sanctions against Russia at the end of the conflict in Ukraine. A representative of the President-elect's transition team commented on the prospect of easing and lifting Washington's sanctions against Moscow, as well as normalizing trade and economic relations between the United States and Russia. He stated that this is «certainly an opportunity if the conflict in Ukraine turns out to be resolved.» More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Tesla Buzz, Nasdaq Gains, Nvidia Intrigue — Wall Street Events Nasdaq and S&P 500 Results: Nvidia on the Horizon, Tesla Surprises The Nasdaq and S&P 500 ended Monday's trading in the "green zone," recouping some of their previous losses. Investors turned their attention to Nvidia's (NVDA.O) earnings call, while Tesla's (TSLA.O) shares rose sharply on expectations of favorable policy changes from the new Trump administration. Nvidia: AI bets continue Nvidia is set to report third-quarter financial results on Wednesday, with investors awaiting answers to a key question: whether strong demand for chips is continuing and whether the AI euphoria that has driven growth this year is sustaining the market. The company, which has accounted for about 20% of the S&P 500's earnings over the past 12 months, is expected to post 25% EPS growth in the third quarter, according to analysts at BofA Global Research. However, Nvidia shares fell 1.3% after reports of new AI chips overheating in server systems. Expert Comments: Moderate Optimism "Nvidia is the last of the Magnificent Seven to report quarterly results. While we are seeing revenue and interest pick up, the current level of expectations is not as high as it was a quarter or two ago," said Carol Schleif, chief investment officer at BMO Family Office. Tesla: Jump on Expectations Tesla shares have soared, reflecting positive market sentiment about possible policy changes associated with the new administration. Such growth underscores investors' desire to seize opportunities in a rapidly changing environment. The sentiment around Nvidia and Tesla in the coming days may become an indicator of the future direction of the market, which promises many surprises for traders. US indices: Nasdaq and S&P 500 in the green, Dow Jones declines Trading on the US stock market on Monday ended with mixed dynamics of key indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) lost 55.39 points (-0.13%) to end at 43,389.60. At the same time, the S&P 500 (.SPX) added 23.00 points (+0.39%) to end at 5,893.62, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) rose 111.69 points (+0.60%) to end at 18,791.81. Energy and Tesla: Who's Pulling the S&P 500 Up The energy sector (.SPNY) led the S&P 500, rising 1.05%. Consumer discretionary stocks (.SPLRCD) followed suit, adding 1.04%. Tesla was in the spotlight, with shares jumping 5.6% after Bloomberg's report. Donald Trump's transition team is reportedly considering loosening regulations on self-driving cars, fueling investor interest. Meanwhile, industrials (.SPLRCI) were among the laggards, posting the biggest declines among sectors. CVS Health Gains Strength In notable corporate news, CVS Health (CVS.N) shares rose 5.4%. The jump was the result of the company announcing it would expand its board by adding four new members as part of a deal with Glenview Capital Management. Experts Predict Volatility Carol Schleiff, chief investment officer at BMO Family Office, said, "There could be significant volatility in some sectors right now until we hear more details about the decisions of the new Trump team, which is expected later this month." Market Takes Stock of the Year Despite a correction following the sharp post-election rally, sentiment on Wall Street remains positive. The year 2024 is drawing to a close, demonstrating the resilience of the U.S. stock market, although its future direction will depend on political decisions and new macroeconomic factors. Stock Market: Holiday Season, Political Uncertainty, and Expectations from the Fed U.S. stock indexes ended last week with the largest losses in the last two months. Investors are worried about the slowdown in the pace of easing by the Federal Reserve, as well as uncertainty around Donald Trump's appointments to his administration. Retailers under close scrutiny The start of the week coincided with an active holiday shopping season, which shifts the market's focus to the largest retail players. Walmart (WMT.N), Lowe's Companies (LOW.N) and Target (TGT.N) are preparing to release their results, which will become an indicator of the state of American consumer demand. Balance of Power: More Winners on the NYSE On the New York Stock Exchange, gainers outnumbered decliners 1.71 to 1, with 159 new yearly highs and 88 new yearly lows. On the Nasdaq, the picture was balanced, with 2,158 gainers and 2,150 decliners. The S&P 500 posted 29 new yearly highs and 13 new yearly lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 69 new yearly highs and 265 new yearly lows. Trading Activity Beats Averages Trading volume on U.S. exchanges totaled 14.94 billion shares, exceeding the 20-day average of 14.12 billion. This activity indicates that traders are paying close attention to market events. Global sentiment: Stocks rise, dollar falls Global markets were positive on Monday, with stocks rising while the US dollar slipped, although it remains close to its yearly peaks. Investors moderated expectations about the Federal Reserve's next move, easing some of the pressure on the currency. The holiday season is coming, and its outcome is expected to add clarity to the overall picture of the US economy. Trump appointments and economic uncertainty: focus on key positions US President-elect Donald Trump is busy building his team, filling important positions in the areas of health care and defense. However, key appointments for financial markets – the Treasury Secretary and the Trade Representative – remain open, adding uncertainty to the outlook. New policies: taxes and tariffs in focus The incoming Trump administration is expected to focus on two priorities: tax cuts and higher tariffs. Economists say such measures could trigger higher inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates. Bond Yields: A Red Flag? The U.S. Treasury yield market has seen yields fall amid heightened volatility. The benchmark 10-year note has lost 1 basis point to 4.416%. "The 10-year yield reflects budget and deficit concerns, and signals underlying inflation risks if new tariffs are imposed," said Wasif Latif, president and chief investment officer at Sarmaya Partners. Inflation: Back on the Table The structure and scale of tariffs that the new administration may initiate have inflationary potential, according to Latif. "The bond market is sending a clear signal. The stock market may have paused last week, but today it seems to be riding a wave of optimism again," he said. Markets: Balancing Expectations and Risks Investors continue to balance optimism over economic stimulus measures with concerns that new tariffs and rising inflation could complicate the Fed's monetary policy. In the coming weeks, attention will focus on filling key positions and the details of the Trump administration's economic strategy. European Markets Under Pressure: Real Estate and Utilities in the Red European stock markets ended the day lower, led by weakness in the real estate and utilities sectors. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index (.STOXX) lost 0.06%, reflecting a cautious investor mood. Global Markets: Gains on Nvidia Expectations Sentiment was more positive in global markets, with the MSCI World Index (.MIWD00000PUS), which tracks stocks around the world, rising 0.35% to 845.60. Nvidia (NVDA.O) earnings on Wednesday remain in focus. Analysts expect strong revenue growth from the company, which continues to dominate the AI chip space. Nvidia shares have nearly tripled this year, becoming a key driver of the S&P 500's record highs. Dollar and Forex: Strengthening Against the Yen The U.S. dollar rose 0.29% against the Japanese yen to 154.605. However, the dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, was down 0.51% at 106.19. Despite the decline, the currency remains close to its one-year high of 107.07, reflecting the overall strength of the U.S. economy. Oil Market: Prices Rise Sharply Oil prices have shown a significant strengthening after the news of production suspension at Norway's largest Johan Sverdrup field. Brent crude futures closed at $73.30 per barrel, up 3.2%. Similarly, WTI crude also gained 3.2%, closing at $69.16 per barrel. Looking Ahead: What to Expect from Markets Investors are eagerly awaiting earnings reports from Nvidia and other tech giants, which could set the tone for future market dynamics. The oil sector continues to react to geopolitical events, while currency traders will be watching for cues from the Federal Reserve. Gold Returns: Prices Rise After a Week of Losses Gold prices have rebounded after six straight days of declines. Spot gold rose 1.93% to $2,610.73 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures rose 1.7% to $2,614.60. The weakening U.S. dollar was the main driver of the precious metal's gains. Market Calm: A Pause in News Flow "Markets should be more stable this week as the flow of macro and policy news from the U.S. slows," said Jim Reed, head of global economics and thematic research at Deutsche Bank. The agenda continues to focus on the appointment of key figures in the new Donald Trump administration. S&P 500 Forecasts: Growth in Perspective Goldman Sachs has updated its forecast for the S&P 500 (.SPX), expecting it to reach 6,500 by the end of 2025. This target implies growth of 10.3% from the current value of the index, which closed at 5,893.62. Morgan Stanley has provided a similar forecast, suggesting that the S&P 500 will reach the same level by the end of next year. The bank bases its expectations on improving corporate earnings, easing of the Federal Reserve interest rate policy in 2024, and a strengthening business cycle. Market Leaders: The Magnificent Seven Continue to Dominate Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the key drivers of the index's growth are the companies of the so-called "Magnificent Seven." These are Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta (banned in Russia), Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. Experts are confident that these giants will outperform the other 493 companies in the S&P 500 in 2024. Cautious Optimism The stabilization of the gold market, optimism about the growth of the stock index and the easing of the Fed policy next year create the basis for favorable conditions. However, markets remain sensitive to any new macroeconomic and political events that could change the current trajectory. The "Magnificent Seven" continue to lead, but by a narrow margin The shares of tech giants, known as the "Magnificent Seven", retain their leadership, but their gap with the rest of the S&P 500 index will shrink to 7 percentage points, the smallest in the last seven years, Goldman Sachs concluded in a research note published on Monday. Macro and Micro: Where are the risks hidden? "While these companies' strong financial results support their outperformance, the impact of macroeconomic factors such as trade policy and economic growth rates strengthens the position of the other 493 companies in the S&P 500," Goldman analysts emphasized. The company's forecasts include 11% growth in corporate earnings and a 2.5% increase in real US GDP by 2025. Tariffs and Bonds: A Double Threat for the Market Goldman Sachs also warned that the US stock market could face serious risks in 2025. Among them are the possible introduction of new tariffs and rising bond yields, which could put pressure on stocks. On the other hand, a more accommodative fiscal policy or friendly measures from the Federal Reserve could stimulate further growth. Economic Policy: Betting on Change Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election brought clarity to the key directions of his economic program. Tax cuts and tariff hikes are the main promises that experts believe could accelerate inflation and limit the Fed's room to maneuver with interest rates. Earnings Outlook: A Realistic View Goldman expects S&P 500 earnings per share to rise to $268 by 2025. This figure reflects a positive but cautious view of corporate earnings prospects, given possible macroeconomic changes and political risks. Results: Balancing Growth and Challenges Investors are closely monitoring market dynamics, trying to find a balance between the opportunities presented by tech giants and the risks associated with changes in economic and trade policies. A difficult road lies ahead, in which it is important to consider both local and global factors. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Changes to the trading schedule – November 2024 We’d like to inform you that due to public holidays celebrated in November, there will be changes to the trading schedule. Please refer to the table attached on the site to see all the changes and plan your activities accordingly. https://bit.ly/3ObZNsd

Oil is growing amid the aggravation of the geopolitical situation Oil prices started the week with an increase caused by the aggravation of the geopolitical situation over the weekend. At the same time, concerns about the demand for oil in China, the largest consumer, and forecasts of an abundance of it in the world are holding back price growth. Brent futures rose 0.34% to $71.67 per barrel, while WTI contracts rose 0.31% to $67.50 per barrel. The decision of President Biden's administration to allow Ukraine to use American weapons for strikes on Russian territory has become a serious turn in US policy. This event may lead to an increase in the so-called «geopolitical risk premium» in the oil market, as it increases tensions in the world. A decrease in the capacity of refineries in China and a slowdown in production growth in the country are also causing concern among investors. In addition, uncertainty in global financial markets is related to the pace and scale of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. In the United States, the number of active oil drilling rigs decreased last week, reaching the lowest level since July. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Gold ends the week with the worst performance in three years Gold ends the week with a drop, reaching the lowest level in the last three years. The market value of the precious metal has been declining throughout the week and has lost more than 4% of its value. Spot gold is currently trading at $2,561 per ounce. Experts believe that the decline in the value of gold is due to a strong dollar and expectations of a stricter US monetary policy under Trump. Also, high interest rates make gold less attractive to investors. Comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in which he stressed the need for caution in rapidly lowering rates, also affected market sentiment. Perhaps the price of gold will rise in the future and reach the $ 2,600 mark again, but the coming week will show how the market will be affected by reports on retail sales in the United States and statements by representatives of the Fed. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Crisis on the Horizon? Politics and Economics Drown Dow, Nasdaq, Tesla Profit-Taking Wave: Wall Street Indexes End Day Lower The key U.S. stock indexes closed lower on Tuesday as investors sought to take profits after the recent rally that began amid the presidential election. Markets are anxiously awaiting fresh U.S. inflation data this week, which could significantly impact future price action. Post-Election Records: Investors Assess Prospects Stock indices have been on a tear since the November 5 election, buoyed by new President Donald Trump's promises to cut taxes and loosen business regulations. Market participants have been buying up shares, hoping that these measures will support economic growth and revive the corporate sector. Inflation Concerns Have Cooled Enthusiasm However, optimism in the market declined on Tuesday, as investors began to worry that the policies proposed by the Trump administration could trigger a rise in inflation. Amid these concerns, European markets also fell, losing 2%, after statements from the European Central Bank, who warned that higher tariffs from the United States could hurt the global economy. Tesla and Others Lose Ground After a Jump Some companies that investors had previously been buying up in anticipation of their rise under the new administration have retreated after reaching peaks. Tesla (TSLA.O) shares fell 6% on Tuesday, despite an impressive 40% gain since the election. Economic growth is a positive sign, but bonds are under pressure Karen Karniol-Tambour, co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater Associates, emphasized at the Yahoo Finance Invest conference that despite the risks, U.S. stocks remain attractive assets amid the expected sustainable economic growth in the U.S. She noted that this dynamic is supporting the stock market, although the yield on 10-year Treasury notes has already reached a four-month high, rising amid an expected review of economic policy. Russell 2000 - from peak to trough The Russell 2000 small company index (.RUT) fell 1.8%, although on Monday it finished trading at the highest level in the last three years. Meanwhile, rising Treasury yields have added pressure on stocks as bond investors begin to price in the Trump administration's future policies. Treasuries as a Worry Signal for Stocks Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital, described the current situation as a difficult balance, with rising 10-year Treasury yields creating a headwind for the stock rally. "On the one hand, investors are cheering about the stimulus package, but on the other, the bond market is signaling its displeasure," he explained. Ablin added that tariffs, tax breaks, and immigration restrictions could fuel inflation, something that is not lost on the bond market, which is sensitive to such developments. Global Impact and Inflation Data Expectations Ameriprise Financial Chief Economist Russell Price noted that U.S. stocks were also pushed lower by weakness in overseas markets and profit-taking ahead of key U.S. inflation data. The consumer price index is due out on Wednesday, followed by producer price and retail sales data, both of which could shed light on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. These data add short-term risks for investors, Price said. "It's likely the anticipation of these numbers that is driving the modest declines we've seen in the markets today," he said. Wall Street Closes Lower as Major Indexes Slip The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) ended the day down 382.15 points, down 0.86% to 43,910.98. The S&P 500 (.SPX) fell 17.36 points, or 0.29%, to close at 5,983.99, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) lost 17.36 points, or 0.09%, to close at 19,281.40. Amgen Under Pressure, Sliding Late The biggest decliner on the Dow was Amgen (AMGN.O), which fell more than 7% amid a sell-off that intensified toward the end of the session. Amgen shares fell after Cantor Fitzgerald said it could cause side effects from its experimental obesity drug MariTide, which showed a 4% drop in bone mineral density. Materials and Healthcare Down, Communications Gaining Among the 11 key S&P 500 sectors, Materials (.SPLRCM) saw the biggest decline, falling 1.6%. The second-largest loser was Healthcare (.SPXHC), with Amgen accounting for a significant portion of the losses. In contrast, Communications (.SPLRCL) was in the green, gaining 0.5% on the day. Fed Focus: Kashkari and Barkin Assess The markets also took notice of statements from the Federal Reserve. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Tuesday said current U.S. monetary policy remains "moderately restrictive" and is helping to slow inflation and the economy, albeit only slightly. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, meanwhile, said the Fed is prepared to take action if inflation risks intensify or the labor market shows signs of weakening. Novavax Slips as Revenue Forecast Cuts Biotech company Novavax (NVAX.O) shares fell 6% after the company announced it was cutting its full-year revenue forecast. The reason was weaker-than-expected sales of its COVID-19 vaccine, which disappointed investors. Honeywell at its peak: Elliott Investment backs it Meanwhile, Honeywell (HON.O) shares soared 3.8% to a record high. The rally came as activist investor Elliott Investment increased its stake in the company by more than $5 billion, giving investors confidence in the industrial giant's future growth. Stocks on the market: More decliners than gainers Declining stocks were significantly outnumbered on the New York Stock Exchange, with a ratio of 3.48 to 1. Meanwhile, the NYSE recorded 328 new highs and 101 new lows. Declining stocks also outnumbered advancing ones on the Nasdaq, with 3,012 of the 4,336 shares trading down and 1,328 gaining. The S&P 500 posted 55 new 52-week highs and 16 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite added 193 new highs and 129 new lows. Volumes on the rise, Asian stocks under pressure Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges reached 15.29 billion shares, above the 20-session average of 13.17 billion. Meanwhile, Asian stocks also fell on Wednesday, as a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields fueled worries ahead of key inflation data that could impact the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. Short-term bond yields rise, dollar strengthens Short-term U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply on Tuesday, hitting their highest since late July. The move also helped the dollar strengthen, hitting a more than three-month high against the Japanese yen as the market reopened after the Veterans Day holiday. Trump Policy and Inflation Expectations Since Donald Trump was elected president, rising bond yields have been a clear trend as market participants anticipate that promised tax cuts and tariffs could lead to a larger budget deficit and more government borrowing. Such a scenario, analysts say, would also fuel inflation, making it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates further. Tug of War: Stocks and Bonds Against this backdrop, the U.S. stock market enjoyed a record rally, but that optimism quickly turned to caution as bond yields began to rise. Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, noted that the move remains part of the so-called "Trump trade," which is based on the idea of more deficit spending. "However, as we have seen before, higher risk-off asset rates are starting to put pressure on equity valuations, creating a tug-of-war between the bond and equity markets," he added. Bitcoin Returns to Record High: Betting on Trump's Crypto-Friendly Policy Bitcoin is slowly but surely moving towards its all-time high, approaching the $90,000 mark. Its price is currently hovering around $88,195, reflecting market participants' expectations inspired by Trump's promise to turn the US into a global crypto hub. Investors are hoping that possible regulatory easing will give the cryptocurrency a new boost. China in Focus: Commodity Market Weakening Meanwhile, global commodities have come under pressure as traders are worried about China's economic outlook, which may have to contend with new trade tariffs from the US. The economic stimulus measures announced by Beijing have not yet inspired confidence in the ability of market participants to quickly recover the largest Asian economy. Asian Markets Tumble Asian markets are also down, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) down 0.9%, while the mainland China Property Index (.HSMPI) fell 1.3%. Chinese blue chips (.CSI) were unchanged. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) and South Korea's Kospi (.KS11) fell 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively, while Australia's (.AXJO) also fell 1.1%, weighed down by commodity stocks. US Futures and Bond Yields: Sustained Tension S&P 500 futures are down 0.1%, continuing their gains after an overnight 0.3% drop. Meanwhile, the yield on two-year Treasury notes hit 4.34%, the first time it has risen to 4.367% since late July. The 10-year yield remains at 4.43%, not far from the four-month high of 4.479% set immediately after Trump's landslide election victory. Dollar on the cusp: Yen strength raises expectations of intervention The dollar hit 154.94 yen for the first time since late July before falling back to 154.56 yen. That brings the dollar/yen pair closer to the important 155 yen threshold, which many analysts see as a potential point at which Japanese policymakers could intervene verbally to prevent the yen from weakening further. Japanese policymakers ready to act Last week, Atsushi Mimura, head of the Japanese Ministry of Finance's foreign exchange bureau, stressed that Japanese policymakers are prepared to act quickly if there are significant exchange rate movements, raising market expectations of possible intervention. Dollar Index at Spring Highs The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the currency against a basket of six major currencies including the yen and the euro, settled at 105.92, just off Tuesday's high of 106.17 — the highest since early May. Fed Rate Cut Prospects: Chances Dim The chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by a quarter point at its next meeting on Dec. 18 is now 60%, down from 77% a week ago, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The release of U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data later Wednesday could further weigh on those expectations. Economists are forecasting a 0.3% monthly increase in the core measure, which could dampen hopes for a rate cut. Euro at one-year low The euro is trading at $1.0625 after slipping overnight to $1.0595, its lowest in 12 months, reflecting the dollar's resilience amid expectations of a stronger US economy. Europe under attack: Trump's tariffs will impact As in China, concerns about US trade policy are growing in Europe. Trump said earlier that the EU would "pay a heavy price" for not importing enough US goods, putting the bloc's economy at risk and adding uncertainty to trade relations. Copper prices fall: Demand weakens On the London Metal Exchange, copper prices fell 2% to their lowest in two months. The drop reflected weakening demand for the metal, much of which comes from China, where the economy is also under pressure from global tariffs and domestic problems. Oil remains under pressure: OPEC forecasts are cut The global oil market is also going through difficult times. On Tuesday, OPEC revised down its forecasts for global oil demand growth, noting the slowdown in the Chinese economy and weakness in some other regions. Against this background, Brent crude futures rose by 0.2%, reaching $72 per barrel, and American WTI also rose by 0.2%, to $68.26, but remained close to monthly lows. Gold tries to recover On the precious metals market, gold strengthened slightly, adding 0.4% and reaching a price of about $2,607 per ounce. This small increase was an attempt by the metal to recoup losses after falling to a nearly two-month low in the previous session, caused by the strengthening dollar. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 12, 2024 Despite the public holiday in the United States, the market remained active, and the euro continued to lose ground. The reason lies in the aftermath of the elections. While the outcomes of the presidential and Senate elections are clear, the distribution of seats in the House of Representatives remains uncertain. Yesterday, it was reported that the Republican Party is on the verge of securing a majority in both chambers of Congress. This scenario implies that nothing would prevent the Republicans from passing a new tariff law, primarily affecting the European Union—already in a fragile state. Germany's economy seems to have narrowly avoided slipping into recession, though most economists believe it is inevitable and likely to begin next quarter. The introduction of higher tariffs by the U.S. would only exacerbate the European economy's issues. In other words, political factors have retaken center stage, and investors are closely monitoring developments in the House of Representatives. With the vote count nearing completion, clarity is expected in the coming days. Should the Republican Party secure victory, the euro will weaken further. Conversely, if the Democrats gain the majority, a significant rebound could occur, potentially leading to a correction. For now, macroeconomic data will play a secondary role. Moreover, with tomorrow's U.S. inflation report looming, the macroeconomic calendar remains relatively empty until then. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Trump Victory Echoes: S&P 500 Breaks 6,000 on Positive Economic Trends Markets Riding: Trump, Fed Rates Fuel Optimism The S&P 500 briefly crossed 6,000 on Friday night, ending the week with its biggest gain of the year. Trump and his political outlook had a powerful impact on investor sentiment, raising hopes for favorable economic reforms. Economic impact of rate cuts Expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut announced by the Federal Reserve this week have added confidence to stock markets. The Fed's actions have increased the appetite for growth, which could not but be reflected in the performance of stock indices. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) recorded their best weekly results since November 2023. Nasdaq, in turn, demonstrated its best week in two months, strengthening amid growing expectations for economic growth and higher corporate earnings. Political changes: what does a Republican victory promise? One of the key factors influencing stock markets has become the political situation in the United States. Donald Trump's victory in the election and the possible control of the Republican Party over the Senate and the House of Representatives create the preconditions for stabilization of the political situation. Many believe that this will facilitate the implementation of ambitious plans for tax cuts and deregulation, which in turn stimulates the growth of corporate profits and investment. Trump and Tax Reform Corporate tax cuts and deregulation were the main drivers of the Nasdaq's rally, with three straight days of record closings. As a result, the S&P 500 ended the week with its 50th record close this year, underscoring the strength of the current bullish trend. Mike Dixon, head of research and quantitative strategy at Horizon Investments, said: "While the 6,000 mark is psychologically significant, given all the events of the week, I don't think it matters whether we close at 6,005 or 5,995. The market still put up an impressive gain." So, it's been a very positive week for stock indices, with major events like the election and the Fed decision continuing to impact financial markets, creating positive expectations for investors. Markets in the green: News that influenced the rally This week brought a lot of positive news for stock markets, with investors reacting strongly to the improvements in the economy and politics. As one analyst emphasized, "this flow of good news is much more important than whether the indicator will be at 6000 or slightly below when the market closes." All this prevails over technical issues, highlighting the strong optimism among traders. Indices on the rise: Dow at a record The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 259.65 points (0.59%), ending the day at 43,988.99. The S&P 500 added 22.44 points (0.38%), closing at 5,995.54, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 17.32 points (0.09%), reaching 19,286.78. All three indices posted impressive gains for the week, with the S&P 500 up 4.66%, the Nasdaq up 5.74%, and the Dow up 4.61%. Records and Strong Sectors One of the highlights of the week was the Dow's historic performance, which surpassed the 44,000 mark for the first time. Salesforce stood out among the growth drivers, with shares rising 3.59% on the back of the company's plans to hire 1,000 new employees to expand its artificial intelligence business through its Agentforce tool. Interest rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and utilities were the best performers among the 11 S&P 500 groups. This came as Treasury yields continued to decline for a second session after a sharp jump in the wake of political events. Fourth consecutive gain The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the week on a positive note, recording a fourth consecutive gain. This confirms that investors are confident that the market will continue to strengthen, despite possible political and economic risks. Thus, the week turned out to be especially favorable for stock markets, supported by positive news, strengthening of large companies and lower rates, which together gave a strong impetus for further growth. Market Trends: Yields and Tariffs Despite positive moves in stock markets, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained at a four-month high. This weighed on investors' expectations for the pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. Markets adjusted their forecasts amid growing concerns about the administration's proposed tariffs, which could reignite inflationary pressures. Russell 2000: Small-cap stocks post strong gains The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks posted a phenomenal 8.51% gain for the week, the biggest weekly gain since April 2020. Experts believe that stocks focused on the domestic U.S. market are benefiting from favorable economic conditions, such as potential tax relief, less regulation, and less reliance on foreign trade and tariffs. Consumer Optimism US consumer sentiment indicators hit a seven-month high in early November, with the household expectations index rising in particular, reaching its highest in three years. Republicans are optimistic about the economic outlook, which is having a noticeable impact on confidence, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Problems in the Tech Sector Despite the overall market growth, several large companies saw a noticeable decline. For example, Airbnb shares fell by 8.66% after the company failed to meet investors' expectations for third-quarter profit. Pinterest fared even worse, with its shares falling by 14% after disappointing revenue forecasts. Chinese Companies: Declining Interest Chinese companies' listings on US exchanges also lost value. Investors did not appreciate the latest fiscal support measures from the Chinese government. For example, JD.com shares fell by 6.99%, while Alibaba lost 5.94%. Market Leaders and Losers Amid these fluctuations, rising stocks significantly outnumbered falling stocks. The ratio was 1.7 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange and 1.21 to 1 on the Nasdaq, indicating that positive sentiment prevailed among investors despite some setbacks in large companies. Markets on the Rise: New Records and Growing Volumes The S&P 500 Index recorded 88 new 52-week highs and only 10 lows, while the Nasdaq Composite surpassed the 211 new records mark despite 108 lows. Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges amounted to 15.46 billion shares, which was significantly higher than the average of 12.74 billion over the past 20 trading days. The Fed and Expectations of Rate Cuts Amid these records, positive economic forecasts from the Federal Reserve supported market sentiment. On Thursday, it announced a long-awaited 25 basis point interest rate cut, helping to bolster investor confidence. But the key question is how long the central bank can maintain this stance, as its actions will depend on how effectively inflation is brought down. Inflation and Growth Expectations The November 13 consumer price index report should confirm that inflation is continuing to decline, according to Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth. U.S. inflation data has been an important indicator in recent months for the Fed as it tries to balance its policy between stimulating the economy and controlling prices. Trump and Potential Tariffs: Risks to Prices However, investors are concerned about potential tariff hikes proposed as part of Donald Trump's program, which could put pressure on consumer prices and add uncertainty to the economy. Meanwhile, economic data continues to surprise, with a recent report showing the U.S. economy grew by a robust 2.8% in the third quarter, another positive sign. CPI forecasts: Moderate growth Economists forecast the consumer price index (CPI) to rise 2.6% in October from a year earlier. That's up slightly from the 2.4% gain in September, which was the slowest in three years. Still, that pace remains well below the peak inflation levels seen in 2022 that prompted the Fed to raise rates sharply. Inflation Impact on Fed Rates: New Forecasts As inflation rises, perceptions of how the Federal Reserve will adjust rates in the future are changing. Market expectations have changed significantly since Donald Trump's election victory. According to federal funds futures, investors now expect rates to be cut to 3.7% by the end of 2025, up 100 basis points from September's estimate. These forecast revisions are based on new economic and political realities. Rate Cuts as Growth Drivers Expectations of future rate cuts are playing a major role in supporting growth stocks, along with strong corporate earnings results and optimism about artificial intelligence. Investors are betting that easy monetary policy will continue to spur growth, especially in sectors that are actively using new technologies and innovation. Markets brace for more policy changes However, the initial euphoria in the markets may come under pressure as Trump begins to reveal specific policy plans and appoint key figures. According to analysts at UBS Global Wealth Management, Trump's victory so far raises more questions than answers for investors. With each new statement from the presidential transition team, markets will test how these changes will affect the economy and financial flows. Regulation and Opportunities for Wall Street The expected policy changes have also generated waves of anticipation in the banking and financial sectors. In particular, financial institutions are counting on the loosening of regulations under the new administration. Wall Street is actively preparing to seize this opportunity, hoping for more lenient financial policies that will give impetus to further development and profit growth. Trump and Lobbyists: Preparing for Regulatory Changes After Donald Trump's election victory, financial trade groups are busy compiling lists of changes that they want to propose to the new president's transition team. Industry sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, say a list of proposals covering key regulatory issues is already being actively developed for delivery to Trump's team. Industry Ready for Action The process is the result of months of discussions between the transition team and various industry groups, lawyers, and lobbyists. The goal of these meetings, the sources say, is to lay the groundwork for implementing Trump's promises when he potentially returns to the White House in 2025. Reflecting the importance of these initiatives, several trade groups are willing to submit their proposals urgently. Room for Aggressive Moves The intensity of preparations for potential regulatory changes underscores the new administration's desire to act quickly and decisively, especially in key areas such as banking, where debate has already emerged over future rules and regulations. Bank Groups Oppose Basel III Endgame A major concern in the banking industry is the proposed Basel III Endgame rules, which would require large banks to hold significantly more capital to mitigate risk. The measures have already drawn criticism from banking groups, which have lobbied for months to reduce the requirements. Now they are hoping that the new administration will either roll back the rules or offer more flexible changes to ease the burden on financial institutions. Banks Want Easier Regulation U.S. banks are actively seeking ways to ease regulations, especially on issues that currently cause them the most trouble. The banks want relief from some tough requirements, including fair lending rules, which they continue to fight in court, according to sources. In addition, the financial institutions are pushing for easier annual stress tests for large banks and easier evaluation of mergers and acquisitions. Easy Capital and Basel Large U.S. lenders say that while they support the core principles of the Basel standards, the international norms for the banking industry, they want more flexible capital requirements. The changes would allow banks to stay within existing rules but reduce the burden on banks by allowing them more flexibility in decision-making, people familiar with the matter said. Discussions on the issues are still ongoing, and lobbying efforts are in the early stages. Banking Regulatory Issues Another major issue for banks is the tightening of their oversight by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). Under Rohit Chopra, the agency has stepped up enforcement efforts, causing further concern in the banking community. The CFPB is becoming a major focus for lobbyists seeking to soften the impact of such initiatives on banking institutions. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Political instability, rate cuts and Nvidia's record: what's happening in the market? US markets end the day higher amid Fed rate cuts US stock markets ended trading on Thursday with a confident rise, helped by the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point (25 bps). This development strengthened the positive trend that began after Donald Trump returned to the US presidency. Fed Cuts Rate as Labor Market Weakens, Inflation Nears Target The Federal Reserve has decided to cut rates by 0.25%, citing signs of weakness in the labor market and a gradual move in inflation toward the central bank's 2% target. Markets had largely expected the move, almost entirely factoring the rate cut into their forecasts for the November meeting. Investors are now watching closely for any follow-up comments from Fed officials that could shed light on the future direction of monetary policy. Hopes for Economic Growth Push Indexes Higher Expectations of a return to corporate tax cuts and Trump-led regulatory easing have fueled investor optimism, sending key stock indexes higher. The Dow Industrials and S&P 500 posted their biggest one-day gains in two years last trading session, while the Nasdaq was not far behind, continuing to move in the green. Expert Comment: "Rate Cut Keeps Caps Level, But Eases Them" "The Fed has kept the drama out of this eventful period," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Wisconsin. "A quarter-percentage point cut leaves the federal funds rate still in cap territory, but it's not as tight as it used to be." He said Trump's return to the presidency could bring a modest improvement in growth, but it would also likely lead to higher inflation. "The Fed will likely have to cut rates at a more cautious pace," Jacobsen concluded. U.S. Indexes End Mixed The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) was virtually unchanged, down just 0.59 points to 43,729.34. The S&P 500 (.SPX) added 0.74%, rising 44.06 points to 5,973.10, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) was the biggest gainer, rising 1.51%, or 285.99 points, to end the session at 19,269.46. Communications Leads as Warner Bros Discovery Gains Communications (.SPLRCL) was the biggest gainer among sectors, jumping 1.92%. This was helped by a massive 11.81% gain in Warner Bros Discovery (WBD.O) after the company reported unexpectedly strong third-quarter earnings, which encouraged investors to buy into the sector. Financials Slow Down The financial sector (.SPSY) was among the laggards, losing 1.62% after a strong rally in the previous session. In particular, banks (.SPXBK) fell 3.09%, reversing a significant gain from Wednesday. JP Morgan (JPM.N) and Goldman Sachs (GS.N) also showed negative dynamics, with their shares falling 4.32% and 2.32%, respectively, putting pressure on the Dow. Expectations for rate cuts weaken Sentiment towards further rate cuts has become less optimistic in recent weeks. Economic data points to economic resilience, which could push inflation higher. Such a scenario is likely amid expected tariff changes and increased government spending under the policies of the new Trump administration. Powell: Fed ready for changes Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the final decision on the central bank's December policy has not yet been made. However, he stressed that the Fed is prepared to adjust the course and pace of its actions given the current economic uncertainty. Investors are keeping a close eye on Congress One of the key factors attracting investors' attention remains the possibility of the Republicans taking control of both houses of Congress. If this happens, it will be easier for Donald Trump to advance his economic agenda, which will potentially increase support for the business sector and cause a positive reaction in the market. Treasury yields retreat after rally After a wild rally in recent weeks, 10-year Treasury yields retreated for a time. The benchmark yield, which hit a four-month high of 4.479% on Wednesday, eased slightly after the Fed's announcement to close at 4.332%. Unemployment remains stable U.S. jobless claims rose slightly last week, data showed Thursday, pointing to stable labor market conditions. The lack of a significant increase in unemployment is a boost to confidence in economic resilience, easing concerns about the need for urgent changes in monetary policy. NYSE and Nasdaq rally, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit record highs On the New York Stock Exchange, gainers outnumbered losers by nearly twice (1.94 to 1). On the Nasdaq, the ratio was 1.18 to 1. The S&P 500 posted 56 new 52-week highs and just 4 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 193 new highs and 88 new lows. Trading activity on U.S. exchanges beats averages Turnover on U.S. exchanges reached 16.78 billion shares on Thursday, well above the average daily volume of 12.46 billion shares over the past 20 trading days. MSCI Global Index Continues to Rise The MSCI Index of global equities (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.9% to a new record high, signaling continued appetite for global markets amid a pickup in economic activity. European Markets Rise Europe's STOXX 600 Index (.STOXX) rose 0.6% following a strong start to Asian trading. The index was also supported by Chinese blue chips, which jumped 3% (.CSI300). Investor sentiment was boosted by expectations of more stimulus measures, which outweighed concerns over escalating trade tensions. Corporate Tax and Deregulation Optimism "Equities are reflecting expectations of lower corporate taxes and reacting positively to the prospect of deregulation, which will benefit earnings," said Naomi Fink, chief strategist at Nikko Asset Management. Companies across industries see new growth potential in the policy, spurring further investor interest in key assets. Treasury yields continue to decline U.S. Treasury yields continue to decline following the Fed's rate cut, although analysts warn that the process may be less sustainable than expected under the new Trump administration. Republican victory: potential implications for growth and inflation There is growing consensus among economists that a Republican election win could be a catalyst for more accommodative fiscal policy. Matthias Scheiber, head of portfolio management at Allspring Global Investments, believes that the combined effect of new tariffs and stimulus could boost the economy but also increase inflation pressures. Yields: Reaction to rate cuts The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell 9 basis points to 4.3355% on Thursday, after rising 14 basis points the previous day. The 30-year yield also fell more than 6 basis points to 4.5393% after a big jump the previous day. Dollar Loses Ground Amid Corrections The dollar fell 0.7% against a basket of major currencies, reversing Wednesday's biggest one-day gain in more than two years. Many traders began to close positions on a Trump victory and were looking ahead to the Fed's upcoming decision, weighing on market sentiment. Euro Strengthens Amid Political Change in Germany The euro rose 0.7% to $1.0803, partly reversing a 1.8% average loss the previous day. The euro is recovering as investors digest the latest political developments in Germany, where Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner, leading to the collapse of the coalition government and likely to lead to early elections. Euro Strengthening Forecasts Deutsche Bank analysts note that while events in Germany are still in the early stages, potential political stability could strengthen confidence in the euro. Economic forecasts also point to possible positive effects if the new government adopts a more proactive fiscal stance. German Bond Yields Rise German 10-year bond yields rose 4.8 basis points to 2.441%, reflecting market expectations for future EU policy developments. Bank of England cuts rates amid inflation risks Meanwhile, the Bank of England has cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, its second such move since 2020. The regulator has signaled that further cuts will be gradual, given the risks of rising inflation following the new government's budget presented last week. Pound sterling also shows gains The British pound also regained some of its positions and rose by 0.8%, rising to $1.2986 after falling by 1.24% on Wednesday. Norway, Sweden central banks stick to their previous course Norway and Sweden central banks held their meetings on Thursday, which resulted in no significant changes for the currency markets, fully meeting analysts' expectations. Norges Bank decided to leave interest rates at a 16-year high, maintaining its commitment to tight monetary policy. At the same time, Sweden's Riksbank cut rates by 50 basis points, softening its approach to monetary policy. Bitcoin at Record Highs The Bitcoin cryptocurrency has rapidly recovered its recent losses and reached a new all-time high of $76,780 overnight. Against this backdrop, Donald Trump said that he would make the United States the "crypto capital of the world," which has increased investor interest in digital assets. Gold and Oil Are Gaining Momentum Again After a significant drop of more than 3% on Wednesday, gold showed confident growth, increasing by 1.8% and reaching $2,707.21 per ounce. Despite this, the price of gold remains close to its recent record high of $2,790.15. Oil prices also showed positive dynamics after the sell-off caused by the US presidential election. Brent crude futures rose 0.6% to $75.40 a barrel, while U.S. WTI crude rose 0.5% to $72.04 a barrel. Nvidia Takes the Lead The leading AI chipmaker rose 2.2%, helped by investor optimism that regulation and tax cuts will be eased following the Republican nominee's election victory. Nvidia's market capitalization reached $3.65 trillion, surpassing Apple's record high of Oct. 21 and becoming the world's most valuable company, according to LSEG. Apple Strengthens the Market Apple shares gained 2.1% on Thursday, taking the company's market capitalization to $3.44 trillion. The gains are part of a broader trend in tech, with the S&P 500 index of major tech companies gaining more than 4% over the past two days as Donald Trump wins the presidential election. Nvidia Leads the AI Race Nvidia has been the biggest beneficiary of the recent AI frenzy, outperforming giants like Microsoft and Alphabet. Nvidia shares have risen 12% in November and have tripled in value this year. Nvidia is steadily outperforming the world's biggest companies in the race to dominate computing power and cutting-edge technology. Incredible Market Cap Growth Today, Nvidia's market cap exceeds the combined value of giants like Eli Lilly, Walmart, JPMorgan, Visa, UnitedHealth Group, and Netflix. Analysts forecast Nvidia's quarterly revenue to increase 80% to $32.9 billion when the company reports results on November 20, underscoring its growing influence in the global market. Tech trio: tussle for dominance In June, Nvidia temporarily became the world's most valuable company, but was later overtaken by Microsoft and Apple. Today, the three tech giants are locked in a tight race for the top spot, with each remaining at similar market caps. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Trump 2.0 - Markets Explode: Dow, S&P, Nasdaq Hit Record Highs! Trump Back in the White House: Record Growth on Wall Street On Wednesday, U.S. stock indexes showed a sharp rise, reaching record levels, after Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election in a sensational victory. Four years after leaving the political arena, he returned, surprising many analysts and investors. Strong Start: Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Reach New Highs The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite indices ended the day at historic highs. Investors responded enthusiastically to the prospect of tax cuts and possible deregulation, anticipating that the new president will continue to express his views on a wide range of issues, from the dollar's exchange rate to the state of the stock market. However, increases in import tariffs, which Trump may initiate, raise concerns about inflation and budget deficits. "Trump Trades" in Action: Bond Yields and Record Bitcoin Investor optimism led to higher yields on U.S. government bonds, with the base yield on 10-year treasury bonds reaching a four-month high at 4.479%. Bitcoin also saw record highs, exceeding the $76,000 mark. The dollar also showed significant growth, recording its largest single-day percentage gain since September 2022. Investors' Forecasts and Expectations "Investors seem to have been adjusting their portfolios to capture some of the risk exposure in anticipation of an outcome that seemed unlikely," said Mark Luschini, Chief Investment Strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia. Trading Results: Wall Street Celebrates The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) added 1,508.05 points, or 3.57%, reaching 43,729.93. The S&P 500 (.SPX) rose by 146.28 points, or 2.53%, to 5,929.04, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) gained 544.29 points, or 2.95%, reaching 18,983.47. Record Market Gains: Dow and S&P See Largest Single-Day Growth in Two Years The impressive gains in the Dow and S&P 500 on Wednesday marked the largest single-day jump since November 2022. The Nasdaq index also hit a peak unseen since February, confirming the market's positive sentiment amid political shifts. This growth reflects investor expectations for economic reforms and policy changes with Trump's return. Financial Sector Leads the Way The financial sector stood out, surging by 6.16% and becoming the strongest of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500. Banking stocks showed substantial growth as banks may benefit from deregulation. The S&P 500 Bank Index (.SPXBK) increased by 10.68%, setting a new two-year high. Small-Cap Stocks Also See Gains The Russell 2000 index, which tracks small-cap companies, also rose by 5.84%, marking the largest increase since November 2022. This growth highlights expectations that small businesses will receive support through promised tax incentives and deregulation, reducing risks associated with import tariffs. However, experts warn that small companies remain vulnerable due to their reliance on credit and sensitivity to interest rate changes. Interest Rate Risk: A Challenge for Small Business Rising U.S. Treasury bond yields may pose additional challenges for small businesses, which typically rely more on borrowed funds. "If interest rates continue to rise and reach levels seen last October, around 5%, it could be problematic not only for small companies but for the entire market," Mark Luschini cautioned. Fear Index Hits New Low as Inflation Concerns Persist The CBOE Volatility Index, known as Wall Street's "fear gauge," fell by 4.22 points, reaching a six-week low of 16.27. This decline reflects market participants' confidence in stability, despite rising concerns over future inflation and potential interest rate hikes under Trump's economic policy. Real Estate and Utilities Under Pressure Sectors sensitive to interest rates saw a decline: real estate stocks fell by 2.64%, and utilities lost 0.98%. These industries were among the few showing a downturn, as investors weighed the potential for tighter Federal Reserve policy and its impact on future borrowing costs. Central Bank Policy Adjustments Expected In light of the current conditions, many analysts predict that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points, a decision likely to be confirmed at the meeting concluding Thursday. However, traders have started adjusting their expectations, reducing bets on a December cut and the number of rate reductions expected next year, following CME's FedWatch index. "Trump-Friendly" Stocks Rise: Media Group and Tesla in the Spotlight Stocks that analysts believe may benefit from Trump's second term started to rally. Trump-affiliated Media & Technology Group rose by 5.94% after a volatile session, while Tesla surged by an impressive 14.75% following support from CEO Elon Musk, who expressed backing for Trump's campaign. "Election Echoes" Throughout the Market "The results of these elections are leaving traces in everything happening in the markets right now," noted Paul Christopher, Head of Global Investment Strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Trump's promises to adjust tariffs, cut taxes, and deregulate business have encouraged investors to invest in assets that are likely to benefit from such an economic policy. Currencies in Focus: Mexican Peso and Euro Under Pressure Currency markets faced significant fluctuations as investment flows reflected concerns over Trump's potential trade policy. The Mexican peso dropped to a two-year low, while the euro was headed for its biggest daily decline since 2020, underscoring fears about possible tariffs. Record Trading Volume: Yuan and Peso Take the Lead Trading intensity reached new highs. By 10 a.m. Central Time, CME Group (CME.O) recorded unprecedented online trading activity for the offshore Chinese yuan, reaching a historic level of $33 billion. The Mexican peso also attracted increased attention, with the volume of futures contracts exceeding the usual average by 43%, highlighting investors' interest in instruments sensitive to tariff policy changes. Political Support for "Trump Trades" The strengthening position of Republicans in the Senate boosted investor confidence in supporting Trump's economic agenda. Although the vote count in the House of Representatives was still ongoing, a Republican victory could provide Trump with support for implementing key economic decisions, sparking market excitement. Long-Term Global Economic Impact Experts believe that the election results may have a far-reaching impact on U.S. tax and trade policy and could alter the status of the country's major financial institutions, which will inevitably affect assets worldwide. Treasury Bonds Under Pressure: Inflation and Debt Concerns Sales of U.S. Treasury bonds increased as investors anticipate higher consumer prices due to potential tariff hikes and expect government spending to raise debt levels. The yield on 10-year bonds reached a four-month high, pausing at 4.48%, before slightly pulling back. Trump's Economic Agenda: Inflation and Deficit on the Horizon According to David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, if Donald Trump successfully implements his economic initiatives, this could lead to budget deficits, tax cuts, and inflation due to new tariffs. "High inflation and increased deficits will inevitably push long-term interest rates up," the expert emphasized. Cryptocurrencies Soar: Bitcoin Hits Record Highs The cryptocurrency market responded positively to potential regulatory changes: Bitcoin surged to a new record as investors see Trump's victory as a chance to ease control over digital assets. BlackRock Investment Institute noted that Trump's second term could be accompanied by deregulation, including banking policy relaxation, which may boost the crypto market. Record Overnight Trades: Robinhood Rides the Wave Trading began before dawn. Robinhood Markets (HOOD.O) recorded the largest overnight session since this feature launched in May 2023. Trading volume was 11 times the average as traders eagerly bought shares of companies likely to benefit from Trump's policies: from Coinbase Global (COIN.O) and iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT.O) to companies linked to Trump and his supporter Elon Musk. Contrasting Sectors: Energy and Crypto Rise, "Green" Stocks Decline Political shifts have driven up shares of cryptocurrency, energy companies, and private prison operators. However, renewable energy stocks faced pressure as markets assess the likelihood of continued support under the new administration. Congressional Control: What's Next for Trump's Economic Program Now, investors are watching closely to see if Republicans can retain the House majority after securing the Senate. If Republicans maintain control in Congress, it could greatly facilitate Trump's agenda, potentially impacting a wide range of economic decisions. Market Leaders and Laggards: Advances Outpace Declines On the New York Stock Exchange, advancing stocks significantly outnumbered declining ones by a ratio of 1.51 to 1, while on the Nasdaq, the ratio was 1.84 to 1, emphasizing the optimistic market sentiment. The S&P 500 recorded 138 new 52-week highs and 12 lows, while the Nasdaq Composite set 456 new peaks, with 115 companies hitting new lows. Record Trading Volume Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges reached 18.68 billion shares, significantly exceeding the 20-day average of 12.16 billion. Such activity reflects unprecedented investor interest in the potential impacts of Trump's return as the market anticipates economic reforms and policy shifts. Europe Under Pressure: Germany in the Crosshairs The uncertainty over U.S. politics comes at an unfortunate time for the European Union. The potential victory of Republicans led by Donald Trump has heightened concerns over sweeping tariffs on European goods, which could reach 10%, dealing a blow to exporters. Germany, whose main export market is the U.S., faces particular risks, especially in the automotive sector, where higher tariffs could significantly erode the competitiveness of German manufacturers. European Markets Decline: STOXX 600 and DAX Under Pressure News of possible tariff threats triggered a negative reaction on European stock markets. The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell by 0.54%, while Germany's leading DAX index dropped by 1.13%. Investors are reassessing their portfolios amid ongoing political uncertainty. Focus on Central Bank Decisions On Thursday, attention will be split between political changes and key monetary policy decisions. The U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, Sweden's Riksbank, and Norway's central bank are all set to announce their rate decisions, which could significantly impact global markets, heightening volatility and awareness of economic shifts. Spotlight on the Fed: Rate Cuts and Powell's Commentary The Federal Reserve is expected to cut the interest rate by a quarter point at this meeting. However, investors' main focus will be on what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says about new inflation risks linked to potential tariffs and immigration restrictions proposed by the Trump administration. Experts believe that the regulator's future steps may depend on how quickly inflationary pressures mount. Interest in Bank of England Forecasts The Bank of England is also considering a quarter-point rate cut, and analysts are focused on potential signals regarding future inflationary pressures. The new government budget, which could drive inflation, is a source of concern for markets, and investors are closely watching for any financial forecasts from U.K. authorities. Sweden and Norway: Diverging Paths The Swedish Riksbank is expected to make a more significant cut, lowering the rate by half a point. Meanwhile, Norway's central bank will likely maintain a wait-and-see approach, keeping rates unchanged as the market faces continued uncertainty. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast Gold faced strong selling pressure today, dropping to the key level of $2,700—its nearly three-week low—within an hour before the European session. The Republican candidate, Donald Trump, leads in the U.S. presidential race and is likely to become the 47th President of the United States. This development triggered aggressive selling of the yellow metal and a sharp rally in the U.S. dollar. Additionally, concerns over deficit spending and expectations for less aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher, contributing to divestment from gold. Technical Analysis The $2,725–$2,720 level continues to act as immediate strong support. A break below this region could accelerate the decline, potentially testing levels below the key $2,700 level. This level aligns with the lower boundary of the short-term upward trend channel, extending from late July into early August. A decisive break below this threshold would pave the way for a deeper correction from the recent all-time high reached last week, likely dragging the XAU/USD pair toward the next significant support zone around $2,675. On the other hand, the $2,750 level now serves as the immediate hurdle. A move above this level could lift the price to the next barrier at $2,790 or the all-time high reached last month. Beyond this, the key $2,800 level is expected to act as a critical pivot point. Sustained strength beyond this threshold would set the stage for resuming the well-established upward trend. Market Sentiment Adding to the pressure, the risk-on sentiment—evidenced by a strong rally in U.S. stock futures—indicates that gold, as a safe-haven asset, faces a downward path of least resistance. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Markets in election grip: Dow, S&P fall, Nvidia climbs steadily U.S. Stock Market Wrap-Up: Election Anticipation and Investor Anxiety U.S. stocks ended slightly down on Monday after a volatile trading session, with investors bracing for a decisive week as the nation prepares to choose its next president and the Federal Reserve gets set to release a key policy statement. Final Push: Trump vs. Harris In the final hours of the presidential race, candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris pulled out all the stops in an effort to secure crucial votes. Polls show a close race, and it may take several days to determine the winner. Trump Trades Lose Steam Some of the so-called "Trump trades" faced declines after recent polling showed Harris, a Democratic vice president, leading in Iowa. This led to a dip in the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O) ended up with a 12.37% gain, recovering from early losses of nearly 6%. Harris's Odds Rise in Betting Markets Following the Iowa poll, Harris's odds against the former Republican president increased on several betting sites, which many market participants view as a predictor of election outcomes. "We'll need until at least Thursday to determine who won, so unfortunately, this week will likely be quite volatile," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York. "Earnings are doing well, the Fed will likely lower interest rates, and the only true uncertainty is the election. Hopefully, it will be resolved sooner rather than later, so investors can get back to business as usual," Stovall added. Wall Street Indices Struggle Amid Uncertainty On Monday, major U.S. stock indexes slid into the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell by 257.59 points, or 0.61%, closing at 41,794.60. The S&P 500 (.SPX) also declined, losing 16.11 points, or 0.28%, to settle at 5,712.69. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) joined the downtrend, shedding 59.93 points, or 0.33%, and ending at 18,179.98. Bond Yields Continue to Slide On the bond market, ten-year U.S. Treasury yields took another hit, falling 6.4 basis points to 4.299%, following an initial drop of 10 basis points. Investors anticipate a volatile week as they await election results and policy clarity. Russell 2000 Gains on Falling Yields With bond yields declining, the Russell 2000 (.RUT) saw a modest 0.4% increase, as lower borrowing costs tend to benefit small-cap stocks, which are seen as more likely to gain from lower rates. CBOE Volatility Index Rises: Fear Index Holds Steady Near Highs The CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX), known as Wall Street's "fear gauge," climbed to 21.94, staying well above its long-term average of 19.46. It hovered near last week's two-month high of 23.42, reflecting heightened market tension over the pending election and potential economic fallout. Fed Rate Cut Expected with Near Certainty Heading into Thursday, investors are almost certain the Federal Reserve will cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. According to CME's FedWatch tool, there is a 98% chance of a rate cut and only a 2% chance the Fed will hold rates steady. This expectation has been priced into the market, heavily influencing investor sentiment. Energy Sector Leads Gains Amid Oil Surge Among the S&P 500's 11 major sectors, energy (.SPNY) led the way, gaining 1.87%, buoyed by a rise in oil prices following OPEC+'s decision to postpone production hikes. Nvidia Replaces Intel in Dow Chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA.O) saw a modest 0.48% gain after news that it will replace Intel (INTC.O) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. In response, Intel's shares dropped 2.93%, weighing on the Dow. Marriott Slips on Lowered Profit Outlook Hotel operator Marriott International (MAR.O) declined by 1.59% after lowering its 2024 profit forecast due to weak domestic travel demand in the U.S. and China. Constellation Energy Takes a Hit Following FERC Rejection Constellation Energy (CEG.O) performed the worst in the S&P 500, down 12.46%. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission denied a deal to expand capacity at Amazon's data center, which is directly connected to Talen Energy's nuclear plant in Pennsylvania, pressuring the utilities sector, which fell 1.21%. Rising Stocks Outnumber Decliners on NYSE and Nasdaq On Monday, advancers outpaced decliners on the New York Stock Exchange by a ratio of 1.37 to 1, while on the Nasdaq, the ratio was a narrower 1.01 to 1 in favor of gaining stocks, suggesting a mild overall bullish sentiment despite general caution. Highs and Lows: Mixed Market Momentum The S&P 500 registered 10 new 52-week highs and four new lows, reflecting positive expectations in select sectors. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite saw 66 new highs but also 128 new lows, highlighting heightened volatility among technology and innovation stocks. Trading Volume: Slightly Below Average, But Significant U.S. trading volumes reached 11.31 billion shares, just under the 20-day average of 11.71 billion. This may indicate a cautious stance among market participants ahead of major events like the Fed meeting and presidential election. Air France KLM Faces Downgrade and Stock Pressure Shares of Air France KLM (AIRF.PA) fell after Morgan Stanley downgraded the airline from "equal weight" to "underweight." On Tuesday, the stock dropped roughly 2% at the start of the trading session. Challenging Cash Flow Outlook for Air France KLM Morgan Stanley noted that while Air France KLM's stock isn't overly expensive by historical standards, it trades at a notable premium to its peers among national carriers. This premium, combined with challenging free cash flow prospects, suggests a cautious outlook for the airline. Third-Quarter Earnings in Europe: Surpassing Expectations but China Concerns Linger Despite economic challenges, many European companies are surpassing low market expectations for third-quarter earnings, with investors rewarding top performers. However, concerns over weak demand in China continue to temper enthusiasm, prompting caution. Lowered Forecasts Ease the Bar for Earnings Growth Data from LSEG I/B/E/S shows that analysts revised down profit growth expectations by 380 basis points in the two months before the earnings season. Normally, such adjustments are around 100 basis points, but the substantial drop in projections has made it easier for companies to exceed expectations. STOXX 600: More Companies Beating Expectations So far, around 50% of companies in the STOXX 600 (.STOXX) index have reported their earnings, with approximately 56% exceeding forecasts. Citi equity strategists note that this figure aligns with the quarterly average, indicating that European firms are holding steady despite market turbulence. U.S. Elections Add a Layer of Uncertainty for Europe The upcoming U.S. elections add another layer of uncertainty, with analysts expecting that the resulting volatility could continue to impact European stocks as investors wait to see how the election outcome might influence the global economy. Market Dynamics Shift: Reward for Outperformance and Penalties for Misses This quarter, companies that have exceeded expectations are being notably rewarded by investors. On the other hand, those missing forecasts are feeling the pressure as the market takes a tougher stance on underperformance. European Banks Boosted by High Interest Rates European banks have enjoyed another strong quarter as persistently high interest rates continue to support profit margins. Even as the European Central Bank signals potential rate cuts, investor sentiment remains positive. Higher Structural Rates: A Win for Banks "Interest rates will structurally remain higher than in previous cycles," remarked Thomas McGarrity, head of equity at RBC Wealth Management. He believes this will benefit banks significantly, allowing them to sustain strong margins. "We're in a favorable position and won't be backing down," McGarrity added. Financial Sector's Profit Growth Among the Highest Data from LSEG I/B/E/S shows that the financial sector saw 20.6% profit growth in the third quarter, ranking it third among major sectors after utilities and basic materials. So far, 80% of financial companies have reported earnings that beat analyst expectations. Economic Stagnation Hits Small and Mid-Caps Hardest Meanwhile, Europe's economy remains in a state of stagnation. The industrial sector, particularly reliant on energy, faces challenges from rising costs and weak global demand. For small- and mid-cap companies focused on the domestic market, these issues create significant headwinds and unstable growth prospects. European Stocks Historically Undervalued: Attractive Ratios for Investors Currently, European stocks remain historically undervalued. The average 12-month forward P/E ratio stands at 13.6x, lower than the long-term average of 14.3x. Mid-cap stocks appear even more attractive, trading at a forward P/E of 12.7x compared to the long-term average of 15x. This undervaluation makes European assets appealing to investors seeking growth potential in stable markets. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for November 1-4, 2024: sell below $2,766 (21 SMA - 61.8%) Early in the American session, gold is trading around 2,750, within the uptrend channel, and below the 21 SMA, bouncing after having reached the low of 2,732. Yesterday, after having reached the low of 2,790, gold made a strong technical correction. Today we observed a technical rebound. However, the instrument remains under bearish pressure. Hence, we could expect that if the metal reaches the 61.8% Fibonacci level around 2,766, it could be seen as an opportunity to resume selling. On the other hand, in case gold breaks the inverted pennant pattern sharply, we could expect it to reach the 3/8 Murray area around 2,734. The instrument could even continue its fall next week and reach the 200 EMA around 2,673. The key is to pay attention to the 61.8% retracement level. Below this area, the outlook will remain bearish for gold. Therefore, traders will have an opportunity to sell below this area. Should XAU/USD bounce and consolidate above 3/8 Murray, we could look for buying opportunities with the target at 2,766 as this could confirm that a strong bottom is in place. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Microsoft's Big AI Spend Weakens Wall Street, Nasdaq Dow U.S. Indices Close in the Red: AI Costs Hit Market Optimism All three major U.S. stock indices ended Thursday's trading session in negative territory after reports from Microsoft and Meta Platforms (banned in Russia) highlighted rising AI-related expenses that could impact future profits, dampening enthusiasm for the mega-cap companies that had driven this year's rally. Microsoft: Record Profits Couldn't Prevent Stock Drop Despite Meta Platforms (banned in Russia) and Microsoft (MSFT.O) surpassing profit expectations, their stocks fell significantly, with Meta dropping by 4.1% and Microsoft by 6%. This decline followed reports indicating rising AI costs, which investors perceived cautiously, seeing the potential for these costs to reduce profit margins. The "Magnificent Seven" Lose Ground Among other tech giants in the so-called "Magnificent Seven," both Amazon.com (AMZN.O) and Apple (AAPL.O) released their quarterly results. Amazon exceeded revenue forecasts, driven by strong growth in its cloud division, while Apple pleased investors with higher-than-expected iPhone sales and met expectations in both revenue and profit. Amazon Up, Apple Down: Market Reacts to Earnings Reports As a result, Amazon.com shares rose by 4.5% after market close due to solid quarterly results that exceeded Wall Street's estimates. Apple shares, however, slipped by 2% despite its positive report, remaining aligned with investor forecasts. During the regular trading session, Amazon saw a decline of 3.3%, while Apple's shares fell by 1.8%. Alphabet Also Ends Lower Alphabet (GOOGL.O), which reported earlier on Tuesday, also faced pressure, with its shares dropping by 1.9%. Investors Wary: Unlimited AI Budgets Raise Questions "The 'Magnificent Seven' are clearly hinting that their AI-related budgets remain open-ended, and this isn't a comforting message for investors," said Carol Schleif, Chief Investment Officer at BMO Family Office. "While long-term benefits for the U.S. economy could be substantial, the short-term question remains: where is the immediate profit from these investments?" Microsoft Points to Rising Capital Expenditures Microsoft confirmed that increasing capital expenditures are linked to its expansion of AI investments, potentially affecting its profit margin, causing uncertainty among shareholders. Market Downturn: Major Indices Lose Ground The market reacted with declines across all major indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) closed down by 378.08 points, or 0.90%, at 41,763.46. The S&P 500 (.SPX) dropped by 108.22 points, or 1.86%, to 5,705.45, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) lost 512.78 points, or 2.76%, ending the trading day at 18,095.15. Monthly Losses: Market Ends Extended Growth Streak Amid September's fluctuations, the S&P 500 lost 0.99% for the month, Nasdaq fell by 0.52%, and the Dow ended with a 1.34% loss, marking the end of a five-month growth streak for the Dow and S&P. Inflation Continues to Rise: Consumer Spending Exceeds Expectations According to the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, a key inflation indicator closely watched by the Federal Reserve, prices rose by 0.2% in September, aligning with analyst forecasts. However, the annual core inflation rate reached 2.7%, slightly above the 2.6% forecast, while consumer spending also exceeded expectations, adding further uncertainty regarding the central bank's future actions. Intel Faces Restructuring Costs and Write-Downs Intel (INTC.O) presented its earnings report post-market close, which showed the impact of restructuring costs and asset write-downs. Despite optimization efforts, the company's financial results fell short of expectations, leading to a restrained reaction from investors. Market Under Pressure: NYSE Decliners Outnumber Advancers On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the number of declining stocks outpaced gainers by more than two and a half times, at a ratio of 2.66 to 1. During the trading day, the S&P 500 recorded 24 new 52-week highs and nine new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite registered 59 new highs and 159 new lows, reflecting the general negative market sentiment. U.S. Consumer Spending Rises, Economy Strengthens Thursday morning data indicated that U.S. consumer spending in September exceeded expectations, providing a positive signal for the economy, directing it toward a stronger growth trajectory in the year's final quarter. This increase in spending could bolster confidence in economic resilience. Labor Costs Slow Growth Another report showed that the Employment Cost Index (ECI), the broadest measure of labor costs, rose by 0.8% in the third quarter. This growth marked the slowest pace since mid-2021, lower than the previous quarter's 0.9% figure, indicating a potential easing in wage inflation. Dollar Weakens as Yen and Euro Strengthen on Economic News The dollar came under pressure against the yen after the Bank of Japan took a slightly more hawkish stance than anticipated, while the euro gained ground following data indicating faster-than-expected inflation in the eurozone in October. This factor supported arguments for a cautious approach to potential rate cuts by the European Central Bank, adding additional strength to the euro. Dollar Index Declines, Yen and Euro Gain Ground The dollar index, which measures the dollar's value against a basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.2% to 103.88, while the euro edged up by 0.04% against the dollar to $1.0859. Meanwhile, the dollar weakened 0.8% against the Japanese yen, reaching 152.18 yen. These currency fluctuations come amid expectations for the upcoming Fed meeting. Rate Cut Anticipation: Markets Almost Certain The market is nearly convinced that the Fed will implement a 25-basis point rate cut during its November 6-7 meeting. However, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is only a 70% chance of an additional cut in December, reflecting investor caution. Eyes on Employment Report and Presidential Race Traders and investors are focused on key events in the coming days, with October's U.S. employment report due on Friday and the presidential election set for Tuesday. Polls indicate a close race between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris, adding uncertainty on the political front. Global Indices Fall, Bond Yields Rise The global MSCI Index (.MIWD00000PUS) closed down by 12.64 points, or 1.50%, at 832.30, and saw a 2.3% decline in October, ending a five-month winning streak. The European STOXX 600 index also ended the day in the red, down 1.2%. Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds rose following the release of economic data. The 10-year bond yield increased by 1.8 basis points to 4.282%, nearing Tuesday's four-month high of 4.339%. Cryptocurrency Market Under Pressure: Bitcoin Loses Ground On the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, fell by 3.2%, reaching $70,458. This level is about 4% below its all-time high from March, signaling short-term fluctuations amid market volatility. Gold Retraces After Record High, Monthly Gains Remain Strong Gold retreated slightly after hitting a new all-time high, though it wrapped up a fourth consecutive month of gains, supported by demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold dropped by 1.6% to $2,740.45 per ounce, after reaching a peak of $2,790.15 earlier in the session. Gold prices saw a 4% increase over the month, underscoring its appeal during times of instability. Oil Prices Surge Amid Middle East Tensions Oil prices continued their upward movement in response to reports suggesting that Iran is preparing to launch an attack on Israel from Iraq within days. WTI crude futures surged by $1.81, reaching $70.42 by 3:00 PM ET. Brent crude futures for January delivery also rose by $1.82, hitting $73.98. U.S. crude climbed by 1.33%, settling at $69.52 per barrel, while Brent rose by 0.94%, ending at $73.23 per barrel. This increase highlights the oil market's sensitivity to geopolitical risks and confirms its reaction to potential escalations in a region that remains a crucial energy supplier. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

AI Breaks and Breaks: Amazon Spends, Microsoft Gains, Nasdaq Slips U.S. Indexes Close Lower: 'Chip' Fever and Earnings Expectations The American stock market ended Wednesday with a decline, as chipmakers slipped and investors paused, awaiting corporate earnings. Microsoft: Beating the Estimates After the market closed, Microsoft and Meta Platforms (banned in Russia) reported earnings that exceeded revenue forecasts. These positive results drew attention to upcoming reports from other tech giants, reinforcing confidence in the "heavyweights" of the tech market. Alphabet: 'Magnificent Seven' Reports Offer a Bright Spot Among the largest players in the top "Magnificent Seven," Alphabet also showed impressive results. Its 2.8% growth on Tuesday after beating third-quarter revenue and earnings expectations gave the market a small boost, helping to offset the negative impact from the decline in chipmaker stocks. Chipmakers Under Pressure: AMD and Qorvo Slump Shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Qorvo faced significant pressure. Grim forecasts triggered drops of 10.6% and 27.3% in their stock prices, respectively. Heavy Losses for Super Micro and Nvidia Super Micro Computer dropped 32.6% after Ernst & Young stepped down as the company's auditor. Nvidia also ended in the red, with a 1.4% drop. Tech Sector Hit Hard The information technology sector saw the biggest drop among S&P 500 sectors, down 1.34%, while the communication services sector showed slight growth due to Alphabet's success. Market Optimism Fades According to Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities, the volatility in Qorvo, Advanced Micro, and Super Micro stocks is raising questions and "dulling the rosy picture" set by Alphabet's impressive report. Focus Turns to Earnings and Forecasts "There will be a laser focus on earnings and company guidance reports," added James, highlighting the intense anticipation among investors. Small Losses but Significant Expectations Wednesday ended with small declines across major indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 91.51 points (0.22%) to settle at 42,141.54. The S&P 500 also slipped, down by 19.25 points (0.33%) to 5,813.67, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded the largest drop, losing 104.82 points (0.56%) to close at 18,607.93. U.S. Economy Grows but Below Expectations According to preliminary data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, GDP grew by 2.8% annually in the third quarter, slightly below the forecasted 3.0% growth rate. This minor gap between actual and expected results raised some concerns in the market, although the overall growth trend remains positive. Private Sector Exceeds Job Growth Expectations In other positive news, the private sector saw stronger-than-expected job growth. October added 233,000 new jobs, above forecasts, signaling steady recovery in the labor market and giving investors a reason for optimism, reinforcing expectations of consumer activity and economic strength. Political Tensions: Harris and Trump Run Neck-and-Neck With the upcoming presidential election on November 5, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is a hot topic among market participants. According to the latest polls, the candidates are running neck and neck. Investors are keeping a close eye on the election's potential impact on economic policy and the market. Disappointing Corporate Reports: Eli Lilly and Starbucks Eli Lilly disappointed investors, dropping 6.2% after falling short of sales forecasts for its popular weight loss and diabetes medications. Analysts expected better results, leading to a decline in the pharma giant's stock. Starbucks reported a decline in quarterly sales, with a decrease in global demand impacting the company's profits. Investors closely monitoring the cafe chain received confirmation that global economic challenges have affected even the largest brands. NYSE Remains Positive Despite Declines Despite the overall market downturn, the New York Stock Exchange showed a positive balance: for each stock that declined, another rose. A total of 210 new highs and 52 new lows were recorded, indicating a mixed sentiment, with many investors remaining optimistic. New Highs and Lows: S&P 500 and Nasdaq Show Divergent Movement The S&P 500 recorded 24 new 52-week highs and five new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite saw 126 new highs and 98 new lows. This divergence in performance illustrates mixed investor sentiment, with investors balancing between growth expectations and concerns for the tech sector. Amazon Up Next: Markets Brace for Earnings Report Amazon is expected to release its financial results on Thursday, and the forecasts suggest trends similar to recent reports from other tech giants. Investors worry that aggressive investments in AI and infrastructure could impact the company's high margins, potentially reducing interest in its stock. Tech Sector Under Pressure: AI Comes at a High Cost Shares of major tech giants continued to decline in aftermarket trading on Wednesday. A key challenge these companies face is balancing ambitious AI initiatives with the need to demonstrate short-term returns. "Investing in AI is costly. Building capacity is expensive," commented GlobalData analyst Beatriz Valle. Capacity Competition: Capital Expenditures on the Rise Tech corporations are in a race to build AI infrastructure, but widespread adoption of the technology will take time. According to Visible Alpha, Microsoft's quarterly capital expenditures now exceed its annual spending level before 2020. Meta has also significantly increased its spending, with quarterly investments now comparable to its annual costs before 2017. Microsoft: AI Spending Increases and Potential Azure Slowdown Microsoft reported a 5.3% increase in capital spending to $20 billion in the first fiscal quarter and confirmed further increases in AI investment in the coming quarter. However, the company warned that growth in its Azure cloud business may slow due to limited data center capacity. This statement added to investors' concerns. These investments will undoubtedly help tech giants strengthen their positions in the AI market in the long term, but for now, the question of profitability and margin growth remains open. Investments and Their Impact: Microsoft Slows Margins for Future Gains Head of technology research at D.A. Davidson, Gil Luria, points out, "Investors sometimes overlook that each time Microsoft makes major investments, it dampens the company's margin by a full percentage point, which can drag on for the next six years." According to Luria, the current capital expenditures could slow Microsoft's margin metrics, creating a temporary barrier to profitability. Chipmakers Struggling to Meet Demand: AI Growth Drives Shortages Chip manufacturers like Nvidia face challenges in meeting the growing demand for AI components. Advanced Micro Devices, which reported earnings earlier this week, emphasized that AI chip demand is surging faster than production capacity. The company warned that AI chip supply will likely remain limited into next year, leaving some orders unfulfilled. AI Investments Echo the Early Days of Cloud Technology These substantial investments by tech giants hark back to the times when companies actively invested in cloud technology, waiting for customers to adopt and adapt to the new technology. High-Stakes Bet on AI Infrastructure "We're on the verge of significant opportunities, even if building infrastructure may raise questions for investors in the short term," said Meta (banned in Russia) CEO Mark Zuckerberg, commenting on the company's current spending. He stressed that the company plans to continue making substantial investments in AI infrastructure, preparing for future demand and long-term results. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Alphabet Soars as Nasdaq Hits New High: How Tech Giant Breathed Life into Market Tech Boom and Big Expectations The Nasdaq stock index hit a new record close on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 showed positive dynamics. However, the Dow remained in the red, while investors kept a close eye on financial reports. The main event of the evening was the results of Google's parent company, Alphabet (GOOGL.O), which were released after the end of the trading day. Alphabet, one of the so-called "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, reported earnings that beat market expectations, adding to investor confidence. Earnings Week: Focus on the Magnificent Seven This week has been one of the busiest this quarter for the S&P 500, with five of the "Magnificent Seven" reporting their quarterly results. The reports could help determine whether Wall Street continues to embrace the tech and AI bullishness that has driven stock indexes to new highs this year. Yield Distortion: Focus on the Magnificent "One of the key things the market is thinking about right now is whether there's a potential plateau in earnings growth between the Magnificent Seven, which are heavily weighted in the market, and the rest of the pack," explains Bill Mertz, head of capital markets research at U.S. Asset Management. Bank. Market Summary: Facts and Figures The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) rose 145.56 points, or 0.78%, to close at 18,712.75, surpassing its previous record close in July. The S&P 500 (.SPX) added 9.45 points, or 0.16%, to close at 5,832.97. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 154.52 points, or 0.36%, to close at 42,233.05. Tech Prospects: New Wave or Correction? The next earnings results from the Magnificent Seven will be crucial in assessing whether the tech and AI sector can continue to rise or whether the market will face a correction. VF Corp on the Rise: Return to Profit Investors reacted enthusiastically to quarterly earnings reports, carefully assessing the prospects of companies. One of the bright spots was VF Corp (VFC.N), the owner of the Vans brand. The company reported its first profit in two quarters, sending its shares up an impressive 27%. VF Corp's rally was one of the few positive signs that gave the market optimism. D.R. Horton Disappoints with 2025 Outlook However, not everyone had a good day. Large U.S. homebuilder D.R. Horton (DHI.N) fell 7.2% after issuing a 2025 outlook that was below analysts' expectations. Other companies in the construction sector followed suit, sending the PHLX Housing Index (.HGX) down 2.5%. The housing market remains under pressure, and sentiment in the sector is still mixed. Ford on the decline: Profit forecast misses expectations There was also bad news from auto giant Ford (F.N), whose shares lost 8.4% on the day. The company said it was likely to meet only the lower end of its full-year profit forecast. The news dampened investor interest and raised concerns about the auto industry's prospects amid a tough economic environment. Visa and Chipotle report profits after the close Payment processor Visa (V.N) and restaurant chain Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG.N) also reported after the close. Their figures are of particular interest because they could impact investor confidence in the resilience of the services sector amid ongoing volatility. Labor Market Worries and Surprisingly High Confidence According to the Labor Department's JOLTS survey, the number of job openings in the United States fell to 7.44 million in September, while economists had forecast about 8 million. This may indicate a weakening of hiring activity and adds uncertainty to the economic picture. However, contrary to this, the consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose to 108.7 in October, which significantly exceeded the forecast of 99.5 and indicates continued optimism among consumers. Communications Sector Growth Amid Utilities Fall The leader of growth on this day was the communications sector (.SPLRCL), supported by such giants as Alphabet and Meta (banned in Russia), while utilities (.SPLRCU) fell by 2.1%. Treasury yields cap gains Adding to the pressure on markets was the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which rose to 4.3%, the highest since early July. The jump in yields points to a possible tightening of business conditions, curbing the strong gains in stock indices. Investors brace for volatility as earnings and geopolitics play on nerves Tough weeks lie ahead for Wall Street, as corporate earnings rise, investors must cope with the escalating situation in the Middle East and prepare for the US elections on November 5. The Federal Reserve will meet shortly after this important event to discuss further steps to regulate financial policy. These key moments, intertwined with corporate earnings, promise to add even more tension to the markets. Selling Dominance on NYSE: Markets Record Gap The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) saw a 1.78-to-1 ratio of selling assets to buying assets, with 176 new highs and 75 new lows reported for the day among stocks traded on the exchange. The S&P 500 posted 19 new highs over the past 52 weeks and no new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 93 new highs and 70 new lows. Trading Activity Above Average Trading volume on U.S. stock exchanges totaled 12.59 billion shares, above the 11.5 billion share average over the past 20 trading days. The increased activity indicates growing investor interest as investors navigate the growing volume of corporate earnings and expected volatility. Stocks Rising: Betting on Tech and AI US stocks have been on a steady rise this year, driven in large part by optimism around tech companies and the booming field of artificial intelligence. With such expectations, investors continue to look to long-term opportunities, even as turbulence may hit the market in the coming weeks. Political Heat: US Prepares for Election The decisive round of the US presidential election will take place on November 5. The race between incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris, representing the Democratic Party, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, remains tight, with polls showing a narrow gap in the ratings of the candidates. Political uncertainty is adding to the jitters in the markets, where traders and investors are closely monitoring the news. Short-Term Outlook: Risk Reduction and Trading Turbulence "I wouldn't be surprised to see some de-risking in the coming days and some turbulent trading leading up to Election Day next Tuesday," said Michael Brown, senior strategist at Pepperstone. In the short term, the market is likely to remain on edge, balancing between internal and external factors that promise a variety of scenarios. Expectations ahead of the employment report: investors are waiting in anticipation The US Department of Labor's JOLTS survey found that the number of job openings in September was 7.44 million, short of the 8 million forecast, raising concerns about the state of the labor market. Investors are already eagerly awaiting Friday's US employment report for October, which could provide some clarity and influence the Federal Reserve's next steps. World indices: MSCI in the green, STOXX 600 in the red Amid global uncertainty, the MSCI Worldwide Equity Index (.MIWD00000PUS) showed a slight increase of 0.02%, reaching 848.08. However, Europe's STOXX 600 (.STOXX) fell 0.57%, reflecting weak sentiment in European markets. Bond yields and US election: Caution ahead of change US 10-year Treasury yields neared their highest in four months as investors remain cautious about buying debt ahead of an election that could impact the country's fiscal policy. However, a successful auction of seven-year bonds saw yields ease slightly to 4.272%. Japanese yen stabilises after three-month low The yen, which lost ground on Monday, found support amid political instability, with the defeat of Japan's coalition government over the weekend raising uncertainty about the country's future fiscal and monetary policies. The dollar ended the day up 0.12 percent at 153.47 yen ahead of a decision by the Bank of Japan, which analysts expect to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday. Political Turbulence in Japan: What's Next for the Liberal Democratic Party With the election over, Japan is entering a difficult phase of coalition-building. The loss of the majority in the Diet by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party and its ally Komeito is creating uncertainty for the country's budget plans and complicating the Bank of Japan's efforts to normalize rates. The political shake-up in the Japanese government could lead to increased fiscal spending, potentially putting pressure on the country's financial stability and jeopardizing the current monetary policy stance. Opposition Leader Seeks Monetary Stability The head of the Democratic Party for the People, Japan's main opposition force, said on Tuesday that the Bank of Japan should refrain from making any drastic changes to its current ultra-loose monetary policy. As long as real wages remain stable, he said, maintaining current financial market conditions is important for economic stability. Currency Market: Dollar and Euro Little Changed On the currency market, the dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of other currencies, added 0.01% to 104.27. The euro, meanwhile, lost 0.03% to settle at $1.0815. These fluctuations highlight investors' cautious sentiments amid global uncertainty. Oil Prices: Weak Recovery from Crash Oil futures ended the day slightly lower after a significant 6% drop in the previous session. While geopolitical factors continue to weigh, Axios reporter Barak Ravid reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is planning a meeting to seek a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Lebanon. The news has brought some stabilization to commodity markets. Brent crude fell 30 cents, or 0.4%, to $71.12 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell 17 cents, or 0.3%, to $67.21 a barrel. Online Advertising Drives Market Caps: Alphabet and Snap Lead Gains On Tuesday, online advertising stocks enjoyed a particularly strong evening. Upbeat quarterly results from giants Alphabet (GOOGL.O), Reddit (RDDT.N) and Snap (SNAP.N) boosted investor confidence, adding more than $100 billion to their combined market value. With Amazon (AMZN.O) and Meta Platforms (banned in Russia) set to report, the market remains keen on tech and advertising stocks. Alphabet Gains Strength as Cloud, Advertising Take Center Stage Alphabet shares soared 4% in after-hours trading after reporting earnings that beat analysts' estimates. The company's robust growth in digital advertising and a surge in demand for cloud services linked to artificial intelligence technologies played a key role in the company's success, bolstering investor confidence that Alphabet will continue to lead the tech sector. Snap Rebounds with Positive Results and User Growth Online advertising niche Snap (SNAP.N) also posted strong results, beating revenue and active user estimates. The company's shares jumped 7% on the news, despite facing stiff competition from TikTok and other major platforms. Snap has had a tough year, however, with its shares down more than 30% since the start of 2024, and only a strong quarter has helped restore some of its investor confidence. Reddit is gaining ground in the ad space: AI-powered content licensing impact Reddit (RDDT.N) is also not far behind, with shares up 20% in extended trading after an upbeat quarterly revenue outlook. This is due to successful AI-powered content licensing deals, which have attracted new ad deals to the platform. Since Reddit went public on Wall Street in March, the company has been gradually increasing its influence, which is now starting to pay off financially. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Boeing Falls, Russell 2000 Gains: How Wall Street Reacts to Weekly News Wall Street Up at Start of Busy Earnings Week The U.S. stock market ended the day in the green on Monday amid growing optimism ahead of a flurry of earnings from major corporations and the final push before the November 5 presidential election. Investor confidence was boosted by the fact that energy supplies remain stable despite the escalation in the Middle East, which has not affected critical infrastructure. Israel's Response: Focus on Defense Facilities Israel's response to the Iranian attack earlier this month focused on military plants and strategic sites near Tehran, leaving refineries and nuclear facilities out of the strike zone. That caution has reduced the risk to global oil supplies and provided reassurance to investors worried about the impact of geopolitical tensions on the energy sector. Earnings Week: Markets Await the Magnificent Seven This week's key event will be the release of quarterly earnings reports from 169 companies in the S&P 500, including many of the tech leaders. Investors are particularly focused on the so-called "Magnificent Seven" — the tech giants that have driven the market to record highs. Alphabet, Meta, and Apple are set to report results in the coming days, fueling speculation about further gains. The major indexes gained steadily on Monday, with the S&P 500 up 15.4 points (+0.27%) to 5,823.52; the Nasdaq Composite up 48.58 points (+0.26%) to 18,567.19; and the Dow Jones up 273.17 points (+0.65%) to close at 42,387.57. Nvidia Overtakes Apple, AI Remains in Focus Last week was a big one, with Nvidia overtaking Apple in market value to become the world's most valuable company. Investors are now eagerly awaiting data on AI spending, which could play a key role in the tech sector's performance given the huge expectations for AI in the coming years. Corporate Earnings: A Look Ahead "Earnings reports will be key to understanding what capital expenditures companies can afford to make next year," said Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Corporate executives will be disclosing their plans for the future, which will be an important guide for investors. Microsoft and Amazon, in particular, will be in the spotlight this week when they report results. Small Caps Take the Lead The Russell 2000 index, which tracks small-cap companies, rose 1.63% today, outperforming the major indexes. The jump underscores investors' appetite for riskier assets as larger companies focus on earnings. Energy Slips, Financials Gains As crude oil prices fell 5%, the energy sector took a hit, falling 0.65%. The easing of concerns over oil supplies has dampened interest in energy, while financials have been the most dynamic sector, demonstrating the attractiveness of banking and insurance assets in the current economic environment. Market Optimism: Stocks Rise The New York Stock Exchange was dominated by gainers today, with nearly two gainers for every one that fell (a ratio of 1.88 to 1). An impressive number of stocks reached new highs, with the NYSE recording 147 new records and 41 new lows. The S&P 500 posted 15 new yearly highs and 2 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 101 new highs and 67 new lows. Economic Data: What to Expect from the Fed Markets will be watching economic data closely this week, especially the Consumer Price Index (CPI) due out on Thursday. The data is critical for the Federal Reserve as it is an indicator of inflation and could influence its future policy. Presidential Election: A New Chapter or Continuation of Politics? With the presidential election approaching, investors are keeping a close eye on the political situation in the United States. Despite the close forecasts, markets are considering the possibility of a second Donald Trump administration, adding an additional layer of uncertainty to the investment strategy for the coming years. Boeing Seeks Funding as Shares Fall Aircraft giant Boeing shares fell 2.8% after the company said it would raise up to $22 billion in additional funding. The funds are expected to support Boeing as it struggles financially with an ongoing labor strike that is having a significant impact on its business. 3M Supports Dow with JP Morgan 3M shares jumped 4.4%, providing significant support to the Dow. The gains came after analysts at JP Morgan raised their price target for the industrial conglomerate, boosting investor optimism and adding to the positive sentiment in the market. Japanese Yen Hits Lows The yen fell to a three-month low against the US dollar. The moves came amid political instability in Japan following the recent elections, which left the country in a state of political uncertainty that has spilled over into the currency market. US Jobs Report: Key Data on the Horizon Markets are eyeing US jobs data for October on Friday. The economy is expected to add 123,000 jobs and the unemployment rate will remain steady at 4.1%. The report will be a key indicator of the health of the economy ahead of the presidential election in a week. The White House Race: In the Homestretch Ahead of the US presidential election, polls show a tight race, with Vice President Kamala Harris holding a narrow lead over Donald Trump, 46% to 43%, according to a national survey. The November 5 vote is expected to be one of the closest and most unpredictable in recent memory. Bond Yields Peak: Election and Data Awaiting With political and economic data in the air, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note has hit a three-month high. On Monday, the yield rose 4.4 basis points to 4.274%, indicating a growing appetite for longer-dated assets ahead of the election and more economic data. 'Calm before the storm' on Wall Street "We are experiencing a kind of calm before the storm," is how Subadra Rajappa, head of US rates strategy at Societe Generale, described the current situation. According to her, investors have become cautious ahead of the presidential election, trying to minimize risks. Oil falls: calm in the Middle East supported prices Oil prices fell sharply as fears of an escalation in the Middle East eased. Brent crude futures closed at $71.42 a barrel, down 6.09%, or $4.63. American WTI crude also fell, by 6.13% or $4.40, to close at $67.38 per barrel. The decline put pressure on energy stocks, and the S&P 500 energy sector ended the day down 0.7%, although the major indices remained in positive territory. Truth Social shares soar Shares in Trump Media & Technology Group, the owner of the Truth Social platform, jumped 21.6% on Monday, continuing their recent rally. Interest in the company is growing in light of the upcoming elections and increased attention to media assets associated with Donald Trump. Global markets are on the rise Global markets also saw growth, with the MSCI index for world shares rising by 0.29%, or 2.44 points, to close at 847.93. The European STOXX 600 index also ended the day up 0.41%, reflecting positive investor sentiment in the global market. Yen under pressure: political instability in Japan The Japanese yen continues to remain under pressure due to political changes in the country. The results of the latest elections have weakened the ruling coalition, and this brings significant uncertainty to the political course and monetary policy. The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan lost its parliamentary majority, leaving the country with 215 seats in the lower house instead of the required 233, which has presented the country with new challenges in governance and financial policy. Dollar strengthens against the yen The dollar against the yen shows significant gains, rising 1% to reach 153.88, which was the yen's lowest value since late July. Later, the dollar corrected slightly, ending the trading session up 0.64% at 153.28. This reflects the continued interest in the dollar despite the instability that has gripped the Japanese currency following the country's political changes. Dollar under pressure: rate against world currencies The dollar index, which tracks its value against a basket of major world currencies, showed a slight decline of 0.08%, reaching 104.30. At the same time, the euro strengthened by 0.19%, reaching $1.0813. These indicators indicate the complex dynamics of currency markets against the backdrop of global political and economic factors, as well as the delicate balance between the American and European currency blocs. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Nasdaq up, Capri down: Surprise winners and losers of the week Nasdaq Rises: Hope for the "Magnificent Seven" Inspires Investors Friday's trading session on the Nasdaq closed on a positive note, fueled by gains in mega-cap stocks as investors eagerly awaited upcoming earnings reports from some of Wall Street's largest players. This anticipation created a notable surge of interest across the market. Tesla Back in the Spotlight Tesla shares became a symbol of renewed optimism on Wall Street. Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist at Annex Wealth Management, noted that Tesla's performance strengthened investors' belief that the rally in tech giants — known as the "Magnificent Seven" — is far from over. This elite group includes the stocks of major companies that are sensitive to interest rate changes and actively involved in AI advancements. Nvidia Takes the Lead Over Apple Amid this tech rally, Nvidia (NVDA.O), the largest chipmaker, briefly surpassed Apple (AAPL.O), making it the most valuable company by market capitalization. This achievement highlights the high interest in AI-developing companies, further supporting the entire tech sector. A Test of Resilience: Bond Yields and Employment Data Investors are also closely monitoring U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, which rose again. On Friday, they approached a three-month high of 4.26%. This level of yield generally pressures the stock market, raising questions about the future of Federal Reserve interest rates. All eyes are now on next week's U.S. employment data, which may provide clues about the Fed's upcoming rate decisions. Dow Falls: Banks and McDonald's Struggle The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) dropped by 259.96 points, or 0.61%, to settle at 42,114.40. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (.SPX) slipped by 1.74 points, or 0.03%, to 5,808.12, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) gained 103.12 points, or 0.56%, reaching 18,518.61. The Dow Jones dropped primarily due to weak bank stock performance. For example, shares of Goldman Sachs (GS.N) fell by 2.27%. McDonald's (MCD.N) also lost 2.97% amid a negative reaction to news of an E. coli outbreak allegedly linked to its burgers. Next week promises to be eventful, as the earnings results of major companies and economic data could set a new tone for Wall Street. Stock Market in Tension: High Valuation of S&P 500 Under Pressure of Expectations The S&P 500 (.SPX) has shown impressive annual growth of about 22%, but recent days have seen a pullback from record levels. Despite this, stocks remain highly valued, making them vulnerable in the event of unexpected disappointments in the near future. Record Price-to-Earnings Ratio: Risk or Growth Signal? According to LSEG Datastream, the S&P 500 P/E ratio, calculated based on expected earnings over the next 12 months, reached 21.8. This value is approaching a three-year high, highlighting investors' high expectations. High multiples, as known, can provoke a deeper correction in case of negative news, and in the coming days, investors, as noted by Chase Investment Counsel Corp. President Peter Tuz, will be "on pins and needles." Key Market Players on the Verge of Earnings Five of the largest tech giants from the "Magnificent Seven" group — the very companies that have consistently influenced the stock market in recent years — are preparing to release their quarterly reports. Next week, investors will closely monitor the results of leaders such as Alphabet (GOOGL.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), Meta Platforms (banned in Russia), Apple (AAPL.O), and Amazon (AMZN.O). The outcome of their reports could set the tone for the market in the near future. High Stakes for Tech Giants The combined market value of these giants constitutes 23% of the total S&P 500. This means that their financial results could significantly impact the overall market, as any fluctuation in these corporations' stocks will inevitably affect the main indices. Investors on Edge: The "Magnificent Seven" Under Close Scrutiny Shares of the so-called "Magnificent Seven" companies are currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 35. This is significantly above the average for other S&P 500 companies, as these tech giants have consistently outperformed in profit growth. However, experts predict that this gap will gradually narrow in the coming quarters. High Multiples Under Pressure: Expectations in the Balance Bryant VanCronkhite, Senior Portfolio Manager at Allspring Global Investments, noted that high valuations are only justified as long as these companies maintain stable growth. "If the justification for these high valuations weakens, there could be significant downside," he emphasized, adding that stock price fluctuations will directly depend on the consistency of growth metrics. AI Investments: Path to Future Gains or Risky Bet? Investors are paying close attention to these tech giants' spending on artificial intelligence. Companies with massive AI platforms, such as Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta, plan to increase capital spending by 40% this year. Meanwhile, other companies in the S&P 500 are expected to cut capital spending by 1% in 2024, according to BofA Global Research. This underscores the strategic importance of AI initiatives for tech leaders, but also raises questions about the potential return on these investments. Tesla Kicks Off Earnings Season: Musk Forecasts Sales Growth Tesla (TSLA.O) became the first of the "Magnificent Seven" to release its latest quarterly results. The company saw a boost in its stock price after CEO Elon Musk announced plans to increase car sales by 20-30% next year. This positive outlook heightened interest in the upcoming earnings reports and further fueled enthusiasm for Tesla shares, which remain influenced by the company's ambitious goals. In the coming weeks, investors will assess whether the new investments in artificial intelligence and technology scaling justify the high expectations placed on the "Magnificent Seven," or if the market will need to adjust its hopes. A Packed Earnings Week: Corporate Results and Key Economic Data The upcoming week promises to be one of the busiest for the third-quarter earnings season, with over 150 companies from the S&P 500 expected to report their financial results. This is a crucial moment for the market, as many investors are counting on solid numbers that could drive further growth. Employment Report: New Jobs Under Analysts' Spotlight The U.S. employment report, expected on November 1, comes amid debates over whether a robust economy could prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates. Economists estimate that the U.S. economy added around 140,000 jobs in October. However, recent severe storms could complicate the data. Special attention will be on wage data, as it may provide insight into future inflation dynamics, explained Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, Global Investment Strategist at Hartford Funds. Treasury Yield Rises: Shifting Expectations This week, U.S. Treasury yields reached three-month highs, indicating rising expectations of a less dovish Federal Reserve policy. Moreover, there is an increasing likelihood of higher spending under a new president. Political betting markets have recently raised the probability of a Trump victory, as the Republican candidate is associated with protectionist policies, including tariffs, that could lead to higher inflation. Mounting Tension: Elections and the Fed's Decision Next week marks the beginning of a series of significant events that could impact the market. From Election Day on November 5 to the Federal Reserve's announcement on November 7, investors may find themselves in a state of anxious anticipation. In such an environment, every economic report and corporate result will be critical in shaping future market sentiment. Volatility Returns: VIX Indicator Signals Increased Risk The Cboe Volatility Index (.VIX), known as an indicator of demand for protection against market swings, is again showing signs of strain. After dipping below the 15 mark at the end of last month, the VIX is now hovering around 19, reflecting growing unease among market participants ahead of the upcoming election. Analysts Warn: Prepare for Swings UBS Global Wealth Management analysts, in a Thursday note, highlighted that investors should brace for increased volatility ahead of the November 5 presidential election. As Election Day approaches, market confidence will likely remain under pressure, and any news event could trigger sharp price swings. Vulnerable Sentiment: Market on the Verge of Change Experts believe that the high volatility is tied to overall uncertainty and political risks that typically accompany election periods in the U.S. Investors seeking to protect their assets are increasing demand for protective options, which is reflected in the VIX's rise. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast Gold prices remain under pressure near the lower edge of their daily range, influenced by several factors. The U.S. dollar has paused its corrective pullback from the nearly three-month high reached yesterday, supported by expectations of a more gradual rate reduction by the Federal Reserve. Simultaneously, a positive risk sentiment undermines the growth of the precious metal, traditionally considered a safe-haven asset.analytics671b6a03c5cfb.jpgHowever, the ongoing decline in U.S. Treasury yields is preventing dollar bulls from adopting aggressive positions. Additionally, political uncertainty in the U.S. ahead of the presidential elections on November 5, and escalating tensions in the Middle East, may lend moderate support to the precious metal. For trading opportunities today, focus on U.S. macroeconomic data, including durable goods orders and the revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. From a technical perspective, recent price action on short-term charts has formed a bearish "head and shoulders" pattern. The neckline support of this pattern is situated around the $2,707 level, which now serves as strong support. Any further selling that drives the price below the psychological level of $2,700 would pave the way for deeper losses, pulling the price down to the $2,685 support level, with the potential to extend further towards the $2,662 level. On the other hand, the $2,740 level has emerged as an immediate strong barrier. Sustained strength beyond this region would invalidate the "head and shoulders" pattern, allowing the precious metal to target a retest of the historical high around $2,758, which was reached earlier this week. A subsequent upward movement could push the XAU/USD pair towards the psychological level of $2,800. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Tesla Benefits as Giants Slip, Shares Rise 12% After Quarterly Results Wall Street Closes in the Red: Bond Yields Pressure Stocks On Wednesday, trading on Wall Street ended with a decline in the indices, amid rising Treasury bond yields, which negatively affected large-cap companies. Investors lost confidence in a rapid rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while corporate news added tension, hitting McDonald's and Coca-Cola stock prices. Bond Pressure and Fed Doubts The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds reached its highest point in three months. Investors are reconsidering their expectations for future Fed decisions, given steady economic indicators and the upcoming presidential elections. "The market is struggling to digest this latest rise in yields," noted Adam Turnquist, chief technical analyst at LPL Financial, emphasizing that higher rates are putting additional pressure on stocks. Mega Caps Under Fire Shares of large-cap companies sensitive to interest rate changes were in decline: Nvidia dropped 2.81%, Apple lost 2.16%, Meta Platforms (an organization banned in Russia) fell by 3.15%, and Amazon saw a decrease of 2.63%. These tech giants dragged down the tech-heavy Nasdaq index. Market Leaders and Laggards Among the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 index, only utilities and real estate showed positive momentum. All other sectors finished the day in negative territory. Market Results The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 409.94 points, or 0.96%, to 42,514.95. The S&P 500 lost 53.78 points, or 0.92%, to 5,797.42, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 296.47 points, or 1.60%, closing at 18,276.65. McDonald's and Coca-Cola Under Pressure from the News McDonald's stock dropped by 5.12% amid alarming news of an E. coli outbreak linked to its Quarter Pounder burgers. The incident resulted in one death and numerous illnesses, dealing a significant blow to the company. Coca-Cola also came under pressure, with its shares falling by 2.07%, despite confirming its annual profit forecast. Investors were disappointed as the expected revenue didn't meet higher expectations. Consumer Goods Sector Declines The broader consumer goods sector saw a 1.82% decline. The information technology sector followed suit, with a drop of 1.68%, adding to the overall negative market trend. Investors Lock in Profits "The market recently reached new all-time highs, and many portfolio managers have decided to lock in profits," noted Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments. He added that the current market sentiment is contributing to mass selling as investors seek to secure gains amid growing uncertainty. Boeing Hit by Strike-Related Losses Boeing shares fell by 1.76% following the announcement of $6 billion in quarterly losses due to a prolonged production halt caused by a strike. Later that day, Boeing workers were set to vote on a new contract proposal that could end the five-week-long standoff. Texas Instruments and AT&T Shine Despite the overall negative market trend, Texas Instruments posted positive results, with its shares rising by 4% after third-quarter earnings exceeded analyst expectations. AT&T also pleased investors, with its stock climbing 4.60% as the company's wireless subscriber growth in the third quarter outpaced forecasts. S&P 500 Sees Third Consecutive Drop The S&P 500 index recorded its third consecutive daily decline, highlighting the market's growing tension and investor concerns. U.S. Markets Near Record Highs, But Volatility Looms U.S. stock markets are hovering near record levels, but analysts warn that a combination of earnings reports, shifts in monetary policy expectations, and the upcoming presidential election could test the rally and spark volatility. Fed's Struggle with Inflation Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin noted that the Fed's battle to bring inflation back to its 2% target may take longer than expected, which could limit the potential for rate cuts in the near future. Beige Book: Economy on Pause, Hiring Increases The latest report from the Federal Reserve, known as the Beige Book, showed that U.S. economic activity has remained largely unchanged from September to early October. However, companies continue to increase hiring, offering some optimism for the labor market. NYSE Pressure: Declining Stocks Dominate On the New York Stock Exchange, declining stocks significantly outnumbered gainers, with a ratio of 3.27 to 1. The exchange recorded 102 new highs and 59 new lows, illustrating mixed market performance. New Highs and Lows: Divergence Continues The S&P 500 index registered 28 new 52-week highs and 4 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite saw 60 new highs but also recorded 90 new lows, indicating ongoing risks in the market. Trading Volume on the Rise Trading volume on U.S. exchanges for the day totaled 11.83 billion shares, surpassing the 20-day average of 11.29 billion shares. This increased investor activity could signal that the market is preparing for significant changes in the near future. Rivian and Lucid See Gains Amid Tesla's Success Shares of Tesla's smaller electric vehicle competitors, Rivian and Lucid, both rose by 2% after trading hours, reflecting growing confidence in the electric vehicle market. This growth underscores the attention to the sector, where Tesla remains the dominant player. Self-Driving Cars: Ready by Next Year? Elon Musk confirmed Tesla's plans to launch self-driving cars with paid rides as early as next year. The company is awaiting approval from regulatory authorities in California and Texas, which could pave the way for the commercialization of this technology. Tesla's Autopilot Gains Momentum Following the robotaxi presentation, demand for Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) software surged. In response to the growing interest, the company offered existing users free access to FSD for one month, marking the second time this year that such an offer was made. This reflects increasing adoption of Tesla's technologies and supports confidence in its long-term strategy. Tesla Invests in the Future Despite Market Uncertainty Despite uncertain demand for electric vehicles and the withdrawal of some competitors from the market, Tesla continues to expand its product line and reduce production costs. The company is also investing heavily in artificial intelligence projects and manufacturing capacity. Tesla plans to release new, more affordable models within the next two years, with the first sales expected in the first half of 2025. Tesla's Profit Margins Exceed Expectations Tesla's third-quarter results impressed analysts: the company's automotive profit margin, excluding regulatory credits, reached 17.05%, up from 14.6% in the previous quarter. This figure exceeded Wall Street's forecast of 14.9%. These results highlight the company's financial resilience, even amid market challenges and competition in the industry. Tesla Lowers Production Costs, Beats Earnings Forecasts Tesla announced that the cost of producing a single electric vehicle reached a historic low, at about $35,100. This was achieved through reduced labor and material costs. Moreover, the company reported an adjusted profit of 72 cents per share for the third quarter, significantly surpassing analysts' expectations of 58 cents. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Verizon and GE Aerospace Fall, GM Gains: Three Key Stocks of the Day on Wall Street U.S. stocks ended the day with little change Tuesday's trading session on U.S. stock markets closed without significant movements, although Nasdaq showed a slight rise. Investors continue to closely monitor the dynamics of Treasury bond yields while awaiting corporate earnings reports to better assess the state of the U.S. economy. Market digesting bond yields "In recent days, the market has been trying to digest changes in Treasury bond yields. We're seeing quite significant fluctuations in this segment," said Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. Key index results During volatile trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell by 6.71 points, or 0.02%, to 42,924.89. The S&P 500 (.SPX) dropped by 2.78 points, or 0.05%, closing at 5,851.20. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) saw a gain of 33.12 points, or 0.18%, reaching 18,573.13. Consumer goods sector leads gains Nearly half of the S&P sectors closed in positive territory, with the consumer goods sector (.SPLRCS) leading the charge, up by 0.92%, driving market optimism. Treasury yields hit new highs Earlier in the day, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds hit 4.222%, its highest level since July 26, as investors reassessed expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. However, yields dipped slightly during the session. Investors fear Fed's aggressive moves "The main concern is rising interest rates and fears that the Federal Reserve may have been too aggressive in September. This is fueling a global sell-off in bonds," noted Michael Green, portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management. GE Aerospace drags industrial sector down Shares of GE Aerospace (GE.N) tumbled by 9%, despite an optimistic profit forecast for 2024. Persistent supply chain issues negatively impacted the company's revenue, weighing down the broader industrial index (.SPLRCI), which fell by 1.19%. Tech sector holds steady At the same time, the technology sector (.SPLRCT) posted a modest gain of 0.15%. Leading the charge was Microsoft (MSFT.O), with its shares rising by 2.08%, maintaining a sense of optimism amid market instability. Volatility continues during earnings season "Earnings season is traditionally accompanied by high volatility, especially given the uncertainty surrounding future interest rate changes," explained Chuck Carlson, CEO of Horizon Investment Services. Experts expect the next few weeks to remain turbulent for stock markets, as investors closely watch corporate earnings, economic data, and the outcome of U.S. elections, followed by the Federal Reserve's decision. Chances of rate cuts remain high According to CME's FedWatch data, traders are pricing in an 89.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November. This indicates strong market confidence in a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. Disappointments and surprises from major players Verizon (VZ.N) fell by 5.03% after its third-quarter financial results failed to meet market expectations. The telecom giant underperformed revenue forecasts, leading to a negative reaction from investors. Shares of 3M (MMM.N) declined by 2.31%, despite the company raising its full-year adjusted profit forecast. The market seemed unimpressed, responding with a sell-off. General Motors surprises, Lockheed Martin disappoints Amid the broader market tension, General Motors (GM.N) surged by 9.81% after its third-quarter results exceeded Wall Street's expectations. In contrast, Lockheed Martin (LMT.N) dropped by 6.12% following the release of its earnings, which failed to impress analysts. Housing sector under pressure from rising rates Stocks of companies sensitive to interest rates, particularly in the housing sector, took a hit during the latest trading session. The PHLX Housing Index (.HGX) dropped by 3.05%, driven largely by a 7.24% decline in PulteGroup (PHM.N) shares, despite the company surpassing earnings and revenue forecasts. Facing headwinds from interest rates "While the earnings themselves were quite solid, companies highly exposed to interest rate changes are likely facing some headwinds, as investors grapple with the overall interest rate narrative," said Carlson. Upcoming reports: Baker Hughes and Texas Instruments Investor attention is now turning to Baker Hughes (BKR.O) and Texas Instruments (TXN.O), which are set to report earnings after the market closes. Market participants are eagerly awaiting these figures to gauge the broader corporate landscape. NYSE market breadth favors decliners On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), decliners outnumbered gainers by a ratio of 1.37 to 1. Additionally, 186 new highs and 58 new lows were recorded during the trading session. The S&P 500 saw 15 new 52-week highs and 4 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite registered 72 new highs and 61 new lows. Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges reached 11.45 billion shares, surpassing the 20-day average of 11.28 billion. Gold hits record high, dollar strengthens Gold prices reached a record high of $2,750.9 per ounce on Wednesday, driven by ongoing Middle East tensions and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future moves and the U.S. election. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened, putting pressure on both the yen and euro, while Asian stocks saw slight gains as investors remained cautious ahead of the contested U.S. elections. Asian markets post mixed results The broad MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) climbed 0.3% in recent trading. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 1% ahead of the upcoming national elections this weekend. Chinese stocks rise on stimulus hopes Chinese and Hong Kong stocks finished higher on Wednesday, buoyed by government promises to support the economy. However, the specifics of the timing and scale of the stimulus measures remain unclear, keeping investor optimism in check. European markets remain cautious In Europe, the mood remained subdued: Eurostoxx 50 futures edged up 0.08%, while Germany's DAX futures rose by 0.11%. However, FTSE futures dipped slightly, falling by 0.04%, reflecting continued caution among European traders. Trump presidency back in focus Investors are also paying close attention to the prospect of Donald Trump's potential return to the White House. His policies, which include tariffs and stricter controls on illegal immigration, are expected to drive inflation higher. This has further strengthened the dollar as markets anticipate U.S. interest rates remaining higher for longer than previously expected. Tight race for the White House The odds of Trump defeating Democratic candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris have improved on betting platforms. However, polls show that the presidential race remains highly competitive and too close to call. Market volatility expected ahead of elections With less than two weeks to go before the November 5 election, investors are bracing for increased market volatility. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds hit 4.234% during Asian trading hours, the highest level in three months, reflecting expectations of prolonged high rates. Treasury bond sell-off intensifies The sell-off in U.S. Treasury bonds has accelerated this week as markets recognize the risk that the Federal Reserve could reignite inflation if it eases its stance in an improving economy. Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities, highlighted the growing concerns about inflation. Trump's election prospects shift market expectations The improved odds of Donald Trump winning the upcoming U.S. election have also dampened market expectations of further Fed easing in 2025. There's a chance that the Federal Reserve may take a back seat for six months next year, which could alter the trajectory of monetary policy. Dollar strengthens amid Fed rate outlook Expectations of slower Fed rate cuts have pushed the dollar higher in recent weeks. The dollar index, which measures the currency's value against six major rivals, climbed to 104.17, its highest since August 2. Yen and euro face pressure The yen fell to a three-month low of 152.28 against the dollar, while the euro dropped to $1.0792, its lowest since August 2. Both currencies are facing headwinds as the dollar continues to strengthen. Gold hits new highs amid geopolitical tension Gold prices soared to a new record high of $2,750.9 per ounce, as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding the Fed's future moves and the U.S. election drive demand for safe-haven assets. Oil prices correct after rally Oil prices saw a slight correction after sharp gains earlier in the week. Brent crude futures fell 0.14% to $75.93 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 0.18% to $71.61 per barrel. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Talks and earnings: 114 companies set to surprise, but Nasdaq already up Market pauses: Stocks fall after record highs The Dow Jones and S&P 500 ended lower on Monday, ending an impressive six-week rally. Investors were wary of rising Treasury yields and were waiting for more earnings reports from major companies. Resting after a winning streak "After six weeks of consecutive records, it's logical that the market needs a breather," said Carol Schleiff, chief investment officer at BMO Family Office. With bond yields rising, market participants are taking a break, reassessing their outlook amid concerns about lofty market valuations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 344.31 points, or 0.80%, to 42,931.60. The S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 10.69 points, or 0.18%, to end the day at 5,853.98. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) rose 50.45 points, or 0.27%, to 18,540.01, helped by a rally in Nvidia (NVDA.O) shares. The chipmaker's shares jumped 4.14%, closing at a record high of $143.71. Bond Questions and Investor Concerns The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to 4.17%, the highest in 12 weeks. This raised questions about the economic outlook. "An increase in bond yields could indicate that the economy is growing too quickly, as well as persistently high employment levels," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. According to him, such a situation could slow the process of lowering interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Last week - a series of records Recall that on Friday, the Dow and S&P 500 indices updated their records, ending the sixth week in positive territory in a row - the longest rally this year. Tech under pressure: Giants fall ahead of earnings Rate-sensitive tech stocks were under pressure, with Tesla (TSLA.O) falling 0.84%, one of the victims of rising bond yields that has added to investor anxiety. Findings in focus: Tesla and Coca-Cola in the crosshairs After a strong start to earnings season, investors were eagerly awaiting the results of 114 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report this week, including giants Tesla, Coca-Cola (KO.N) and Texas Instruments (TXN.O). Analysts believe that market participants are taking some profits ahead of a busy earnings week. "Many are now assessing how overblown current market expectations are," said David Laut, chief investment officer at Abound Financial. As of Friday, 83.1% of companies that had reported earnings in the past period had beaten earnings estimates, according to LSEG, highlighting the relative strength of the corporate sector. Broad declines: from real estate to small caps The decline on Monday affected almost all the key sectors of the S&P 500, with 11 of them ending the day in the red. The traditionally rate-sensitive real estate sector (.SPLRCR) lost 2.08% as bond yields rose, while the tech sector managed to show positive momentum, led by a rise in Nvidia shares. The Russell 2000 (.RUT), which includes economically sensitive small-cap companies, fell 1.61%, reflecting the jitters in the market. Elections and volatility: Political factors in play Investors are also keeping a close eye on the upcoming US presidential election, where former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, is showing positive momentum in the latest polls. Danske Bank analysts warn: "As the election date approaches, even small changes in the polls could be a catalyst for significant swings in market sentiment." Boeing in positive territory, Spirit Airlines soars on news Boeing (BA.N) shares rose 3.1% on news that a five-week strike could end. Workers could vote on a new deal that would allow the company to avoid further losses related to the production shutdown. Spirit Airlines on High: Shares Surge Spirit Airlines (SAVE.N) shares soared 53.06%, which was a reaction to successful negotiations to extend the refinancing of its debt by two months. This allowed the company to buy time and stabilize its financial obligations, which attracted the attention of investors. Healthcare Sector Decline: Humana and Cigna Lose On the opposite side of the market, Humana (HUM.N) shares fell 2.46%. This is due to Cigna (CI.N) resuming merger talks with Humana, which caused some concerns in the market. The decline did not pass by Cigna shares, which lost 4.69%. Economic Week: Key Reports on the Horizon Investors are expecting the publication of a number of key economic data this week, including home sales reports, preliminary PMI indices, as well as durable goods data. In addition, the market will be focused on the release of the so-called Beige Book of the Federal Reserve, a document assessing the state of the economy. Bearish sentiment prevails On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the vast majority of stocks ended the day in the red: for every one advancing stock, there were 3.51 declining ones. However, there were still some positive moments in the market: 262 new highs and 47 new lows were recorded. The S&P 500 posted 42 new yearly highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite Index posted 89 new highs and 51 new lows. Trading volume on U.S. exchanges totaled 11.35 billion shares, slightly below the average volume of 11.59 billion over the past 20 trading days. Markets under pressure: Geopolitics and elections keep investors on edge Global stock markets started the week lower as rising geopolitical tensions and the upcoming U.S. presidential election kept traders cautious. This market sentiment played into gold's hands, as futures for the precious metal soared again, reaching new records. Gold in Focus: The Precious Metal at its Peak Gold prices hit new all-time highs on Monday, remaining at $2,719.33 an ounce. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to close the day at $2,738.9. Gold's rise reflects investor sentiment, which is seeking safe havens amid uncertainty and turbulence in global markets. Nvidia Continues to Win Nvidia (NVDA.O) shares are back on a high, finishing at a record high. The gains come ahead of a big earnings week, raising investor expectations for strong financial results. European and Asian indices under pressure European stock markets also fell in the general negative trend, with the STOXX index losing 0.66%. MSCI's Global Equities Index, which covers stock markets around the world, fell 0.37%. In Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.5%. Earnings Season and Elections: Risk Factors for the Market As James St. Aubyn, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management, noted, there is a certain nervousness in the market right now due to the start of the busy earnings season. However, investors' attention is still focused on the US elections, which will take place in two weeks. Despite this, the usual pre-election volatility of September and October is felt less this year. Oil recoups losses: growth against the background of the previous drawdown Oil prices demonstrate confident growth, adding almost 2% after a significant drop last week. Brent crude futures increased by 1.68%, reaching $ 74.29 per barrel, and American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil rose by 1.94%, stopping at $ 70.56 per barrel. This growth signals the return of confidence among market participants after the past fluctuations. Fed in the crosshairs: probability of a rate cut Markets are actively monitoring the probability of a Fed rate cut at the November meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is estimated at 89.3%. Meanwhile, the chances of maintaining the current rate level remain minimal - only 10.7%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note also extended its climb, rising 11.9 basis points to 4.194%. The data underscores the tension in the market as players try to anticipate the Federal Reserve's next moves. Dollar Strengthens as Bond Yields Rise The US dollar continued to strengthen, supported by rising bond yields. The euro, on the other hand, weakened, falling 0.46% to $1.0815. Sterling also lost ground, falling 0.51% to $1.2982. The Japanese yen came under pressure, with the dollar up 0.86% against the yen to $150.79. The gains in the US currency reflected global market sentiment driven by expectations of a tighter US monetary policy. ECB Cuts Rates Again, German Producer Prices Continue to Fall The European Central Bank took another step toward easing monetary policy last week, cutting interest rates for the third time this year. The measures are aimed at supporting the eurozone economy amid slowing growth and inflation pressures. German Producer Prices Fall More Than Expected New data on Monday showed that German producer prices fell more than expected in September, adding to concerns about the outlook for Europe's largest economy, where manufacturing sectors continue to struggle amid global economic uncertainty. Dollar Continues to Rise: Amid Global Tensions The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies including the euro and yen, rose 0.49% to 103.97. The dollar's gains come as geopolitical tensions continue to mount, with the US presidential election looming, leading to increased market jitters. Markets Brace for Election: Caution Among Investors "With the Middle East escalating and the US election just days away, it is likely that markets are starting to get jittery and participants are trying to rebalance their positions," said Wasif Latif, president and chief investment officer of Sarmaya Partners. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

EUR/USD. Weekly Preview. PMI Indices, Fed's Verbal Signals, Lagarde's Interview Last week, the EUR/USD pair dipped into the 1.08 range for the first time since August. EUR/USD bears managed to drive the price down to the lower end of the 1.08 range (with a low recorded at 1.0812) but did not venture into the 1.07 range. Moreover, toward the end of Friday's trading, buyers took the initiative, attempting to regain previous levels, aiming to move back above the 1.0900 target. However, they were unsuccessful—more precisely, they ran out of time. Thus, the main intrigue for the upcoming week revolves around a simple question: Will sellers be able to solidify their position within the 1.08 range, or will buyers manage to build on their momentum? It should be noted that this is not about a trend reversal—rather, it's about the scale of the correction. The overall fundamental background supports a further decline in price in the medium-term outlook. The economic calendar for the upcoming week is not packed with significant events for EUR/USD. However, each trading day of the five days holds some interest. Monday On Monday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting will begin from October 21 to 26. Typically, this event indirectly impacts the dynamics of major currency pairs. However, with a nearly empty economic calendar on Monday, the IMF meeting might draw the market's attention. Participants will be particularly interested in the Fund's forecasts regarding the largest global economies (especially China and the U.S.) and the global economy as a whole. It's worth noting that in September, China announced a package of stimulus measures to revive its economy (the People's Bank of China cut interest rates, eased the burden of mortgage loans, and promised to inject additional funds into the financial system). Meanwhile, China's GDP growth slowed to 4.6% in the third quarter. The IMF's "verdict" could strengthen or weaken interest in risk assets, with the EUR/USD pair responding accordingly. Additionally, Monday will feature speeches from representatives of the Federal Reserve. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will share their perspectives. Although they do not have voting rights this year, they will gain them through the rotation system next year. Logan's rhetoric could support the greenback. In a speech two weeks ago, she noted that inflation remains subject to "real upward risks," and the economic outlook carries "significant uncertainty." Logan also mentioned that she supports a more moderate pace of rate cuts (in 25-basis-point increments). Kashkari, in turn, recently remarked that the labor market remains strong and that "some progress" has been made in the fight against inflation. Tuesday Tuesday will feature speeches from several Fed representatives. We will hear from Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid (non-voting member this year), San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (voting member), and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker (non-voting member in 2024). They may comment on the recent inflation reports released in the U.S. two weeks ago (CPI, PPI), which showed a slowdown in overall inflation but an acceleration in core inflation. Additionally, several European Central Bank (ECB) representatives will speak on this day. Most notably, Francine Lacqua will interview ECB President Christine Lagarde on Bloomberg Television. During this interview, Lagarde may comment on the outcomes of the ECB's October meeting in the context of the central bank's future actions. Lagarde will also speak at the IMF, though this address will not focus on the ECB's monetary policy ("The Future of Cross-Border Payments"). Furthermore, ECB Board Member Joachim Nagel and the ECB's Chief Economist, Philip Lane, will make remarks on Tuesday. Wednesday On Wednesday, Fed Board member Michelle Bowman will speak. It's worth noting that she was the only member of the Committee who, in September, voted against a 50-basis-point rate cut. Since that meeting, she has repeatedly expressed concerns about high inflation. On October 23, she will comment for the first time on the September CPI and PPI reports, which, as a reminder, reflected an acceleration in core inflation. If she even hypothetically suggests the possibility of maintaining a wait-and-see stance in November, the dollar could receive strong support. Currently, the likelihood of such a scenario is only 10%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Also, the Consumer Confidence Indicator for the Eurozone will be published on Wednesday. This indicator has been in negative territory for over a year, but it showed positive momentum in September, rising from -13.5 to -12.9. The positive trend is expected to continue in October (forecast at -12.7). During the U.S. session on Wednesday, we will learn about the September figures for existing home sales in the United States. In August, sales volume decreased by 2.4%, and another decline of 1.2% is expected for September. Additionally, the Fed's Beige Book will be released on Wednesday. This report, compiled by the 12 Fed Banks, provides an overview of economic conditions across various regions of the United States. While the report is informative, it typically has a limited impact on the market. Thursday Thursday is PMI day, a key report, especially for the euro. The results of the ECB's October meeting were mixed. Lagarde neither confirmed nor denied discussions among ECB members about a 50-basis-point rate cut. However, she indicated that the pace and timing of further monetary policy easing would depend on incoming data, with PMI indices playing a crucial role. The September figures were in the "red," significantly influencing the outcome of the last ECB meeting. If October shows a continued downward trend in key indicators, the likelihood of a rate cut in December will increase significantly. Preliminary forecasts suggest minimal growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors. For instance, Germany's manufacturing PMI is expected to rise slightly from 40.6 to 40.7. The euro could come under pressure if the release disappoints amid such weak forecasts. The U.S. manufacturing PMI will be released during the U.S. session on Thursday. Forecasts suggest the indicator will remain in contraction territory but show an upward trend, moving from 47.3 to 47.5. The dollar would receive substantial support only if the index, contrary to expectations, crosses the 50-point threshold. Additionally, several Fed representatives will speak on Thursday. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who holds voting rights this year, will share her views. She was appointed in September of this year, replacing Loretta Mester. It will be interesting to assess her dovish or hawkish stance. Also, on Thursday, attention should be paid to the trend in initial jobless claims. Over the past two weeks, this indicator has been relatively high (260,000, 241,000), raising legitimate concerns among dollar bulls. Another result above 230,000 could put pressure on the greenback. Friday On the last trading day of the week, the main focus for EUR/USD traders will be on the IFO indices. Last month, these indicators disappointed, adding to the pessimism reflected in the PMI figures. A minimal but positive growth is expected in October. For instance, the business climate index in Germany is forecasted to rise from 85.4 to 85.6. This release should be viewed in the context of the October PMIs, which will be published on Thursday. The IFO indices could amplify the impact if they come in weaker or stronger than expected, confirming the PMI trend (which is the critical factor). The durable goods orders report will be released during the U.S. session. In August, this indicator was flat (excluding transportation; it showed a 0.5% increase). For September, a decline of 1.1% is expected (excluding transportation, a decrease of 0.1%). Additionally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be published on Friday, with a slight increase anticipated—from 68.9 to 69.6. Conclusions As we can see, the economic calendar for the upcoming week is not packed with significant events, but the scheduled releases could still trigger volatility in the EUR/USD pair. The key focus will be on the remarks from Fed representatives, who will likely comment on the September inflation reports in the U.S. Lagarde's interview with the chief editor of Bloomberg Television will also be of particular interest. Plus, the PMI indices are noteworthy. All other releases will play a secondary or, rather, a supporting role. Technically, on the D1 timeframe, the pair is positioned between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator and below all Ichimoku indicator lines, which suggests a preference for short positions. The first target of the downward movement is 1.0810 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on H4). The main target is 1.0780 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart). More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast Today is the second consecutive day of positive momentum for gold, driven by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Gold continues to gain positive momentum as markets anticipate additional interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The sharp rise in weekly jobless claims in the U.S. indicates signs of weakness in the labor market, which could allow the Federal Reserve to continue reducing interest rates. This, in turn, leads to a modest decline in U.S. Treasury yields, which supports the upward momentum of gold. Following the release of stronger-than-expected consumer inflation data in the U.S. yesterday, investors have ruled out the possibility of another substantial rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November. These developments, following stronger-than-expected inflation data, helped the U.S. dollar halt its corrective pullback from the mid-August high, posing a headwind for gold. Today, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and statements from the Federal Reserve are key indicators to watch for short-term momentum. Technical Analysis: A solid rebound from the psychological level of $2600 and a subsequent move above the $2630 level favor the bulls. Additionally, oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory. This suggests that the path of least resistance for the precious metal is upward. Consequently, further strength toward the resistance level of $2656 and into the supply zone at $2672 appears likely. From there, momentum could lift the XAU/USD pair toward its recent high near $2700. If surpassed, this level could pave the way for the continuation of the established multi-month upward trend. On the other hand, the Asian session low around the $2630 level serves as support. A break below this level could challenge the key $2600 support. A convincing break beneath this psychological level could signal deeper losses. The XAU/USD pair could then continue its corrective decline toward the next support zone near $2560, progressing toward the $2532 level before ultimately descending to the psychological level of $2500. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv