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Trump. Season 2: Intrigue, rates and a cryptocurrency with his own name New rate: dollar stable, Asian markets cautiously optimistic The dollar continued to show resilience on Monday, while Asian stock markets expressed cautious optimism. Investors were tensely awaiting Donald Trump's first steps in his second term, and speculated that Japan could revise its key rate this week. Trump's inauguration and statements Donald Trump will be sworn in at noon ET (17:00 GMT). At a rally on Sunday, he declared the beginning of a "whole new era of American strength," fueling expectations for his first decisions of the new term. The president has promised to sign about a hundred executive orders in the first hours after the inauguration. Key initiatives include pledges to deport illegal immigrants, cut red tape, and make active use of the country's energy resources. On Friday, Trump demonstrated his trademark unpredictability by launching a digital token. He also unexpectedly promised to "save" the popular Chinese app TikTok, which under new legislation has been banned in the United States on national security grounds. Economic Signals and Foreign Policy With U.S. financial markets closed for a holiday on Monday, the reaction to the presidential inauguration is likely to come later, starting with the currency market. Traders are paying particular attention to the prospects for changes in Washington's tariff policy. The impact of new economic steps could become apparent as early as Tuesday, when Asian markets open. Trump also showed a willingness to maneuver diplomatically: His phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday was reportedly constructive. Market Reaction As of Monday morning, U.S. stock futures in Asia were slightly lower. The dollar, which has been strengthening since the fall on the back of positive economic data and a successful Trump election campaign, remained stable. Asian investors are cautious, analyzing the potential impact of the first decisions of Trump's new term and the upcoming meeting of the Japanese central bank. Asian stocks rise, dollar remains strong Japan's Nikkei index (.N225) showed a 1% gain on Monday, setting a positive tone in the region. Investors' attention is focused on the U.S. economic agenda and key statistics that could influence the future outlook for markets. U.S. indices gain U.S. stock indices pleased investors last week, with the S&P 500 (.SPX) posting its best weekly gain since November and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) posting its biggest gain since December. The results came after data showed inflation was slowing, supporting optimism about the strength of the U.S. economy. Dollar: Strength Continues The US dollar remains strong, up 14% against the euro since September. It was at $1.0273 on Monday, close to a two-year high. However, experts warn that markets have priced in potential tariff hikes, which could limit further gains. Trump Tariffs: New Threats to Global Trade President Trump has taken an aggressive stance on tariffs, threatening 10% tariffs on global imports, 60% tariffs on goods from China, and a 25% surcharge on Canadian and Mexican goods. Trade experts warn that such measures could disrupt global supply chains, raise costs for companies, and trigger retaliatory sanctions from affected countries. Impact on Canadian and Mexican Markets The Canadian dollar hit a five-year low on Monday, falling to $1.4486 per US dollar. The Mexican peso also came under pressure, hitting a 2.5-year low of 20.94 per dollar on Friday. The moves underscore the unease surrounding the currencies of the US's neighbors amid tariff uncertainty. Cryptocurrencies and Bonds: New Trends Bitcoin slipped early in Asian trading but remained above $100,000, remaining attractive to investors despite volatility. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note ended last week at 4.61%, up nearly 100 basis points in the past four months. Amid a tense global economic environment, market attention remains focused on the actions of the US. The outlook for tariffs and inflation will shape the agenda for the coming weeks, as investors continue to analyze the impact of these factors on global financial flows. Trade Policy: China in Focus China remains at the center of the trade standoff, with the United States seeing it as a prime target for tough tariffs. Meanwhile, investors are welcoming positive economic data from China that beat expectations, fueling interest in regional markets. How will Trump and Xi Jinping's relationship play out? The economic and political ties between the United States and China play a key role in analysts' forecasts. Ken Peng, head of Asia investment strategy at Citi Wealth, noted that the outcome of the talks and interaction between the two leaders, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, will be the most important indicators of future trade policy. "Their personal relationship now plays the role of not only a political but also an economic indicator," Peng emphasized during a briefing in Singapore. Chinese markets show confidence Amid positive economic data, Chinese stock indices ended last week with growth. Futures also pointed to a cautious rise in Hong Kong stocks at the open. The Chinese yuan is showing resilience, settling at 7.3355 per dollar in offshore trading. However, it may take time to adjust to the new trading conditions. Australian dollar: Exposure to China's economy The Australian dollar, closely linked to China's trade flows, has started to recover from a five-year low. The currency could strengthen to $0.6322 if Trump's tariff plans are less aggressive than expected, according to Joe Capurso, a strategist at the Commonwealth Bank. For now, the rate has stabilized around $0.62. Japanese yen and rate expectations The Japanese yen strengthened last week on signals from the Bank of Japan that were seen as preparations for a rate hike. Markets say there is about an 80% chance of a 25 basis point hike on Friday. The yen remained stable on Monday, trading at 156.17 per dollar. The development of US-China trade policy in the coming weeks could be a key factor for global markets. With global leaders' meetings and central bank decisions in focus, investors continue to assess the long-term outlook. Commodity and crypto markets: new trends and unexpected moves Commodity prices continue to show stability. Gold remains at $2,694 per ounce, while Brent crude rose to $81.21 per barrel. However, it was the unexpected activity in the cryptocurrency sector associated with Donald Trump that attracted the most attention. Cryptocurrency $TRUMP: explosive debut The new cryptocurrency issued by Donald Trump has become a sensation. On Monday, it soared by 73%, reaching a price of $46.06 per token, leading to a market capitalization of about $9.2 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. In just 24 hours, the trading volume was an impressive $42.2 billion. Initiated as a meme coin, the $TRUMP token quickly attracted the attention of not only investors but also the crypto community. The move expands Trump's presence in digital finance, which already includes World Liberty Financial. The launch of the meme coin coincided with his return to the US presidency, adding interest to the project. Questions of influence: Regulators are monitoring the situation The sharp rise in the value of $TRUMP has raised questions about the influence of public figures on speculative markets. Justin D'Anetan, an independent crypto analyst based in Hong Kong, expressed concern about how political leaders can influence such assets. "Can public figures use their influence in such situations? This is an issue that regulators cannot ignore," he said. Cryptocurrencies as the new "digital gold" Peter Schiff, chief economist at Euro Pacific Asset Management, compared $TRUMP to the "new digital gold," highlighting its phenomenal growth. While experts debate the coin's long-term prospects, its rapid rise has become a landmark event in the world of digital assets. "Crypto President" and Promises of Reform Donald Trump has already announced his intention to become a "crypto president." In his new role, he plans to issue executive orders that will simplify regulation of the cryptocurrency industry and create conditions for its development. This announcement has increased interest in his cryptocurrency projects, as well as in the broader prospects for the introduction of digital assets into the economy. Inauguration Intrigue and the Future of Cryptocurrency Today at noon ET (17:00 GMT), Donald Trump will officially take office as president. His first decisions in his new term, especially related to cryptocurrency, will be closely watched by the markets, as they could set a new direction for the digital economy. Trump's crypto debut, combined with his plans for the presidency, promises to be a key topic not only for investors but also for regulators. A new wave of digital assets is poised to change global financial flows, and the ambitions of the new US leader could play a key role in this. Crypto Markets Resurface: Policy Loosening Brings Optimism Donald Trump's plans to loosen regulations in the cryptocurrency industry have caused a strong response in the community. Following his election victory in November, leading digital assets, including Bitcoin, have begun to show significant growth, reflecting market expectations. Bitcoin: A Steady Rise Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, is showing resilience in a volatile environment. On Monday, it traded at $101,826.51, down 2.6% from its previous high, but up more than 10% in a month. This growth suggests that investors are optimistic about the prospects for the new cryptocurrency policy promised by Trump. Market Expectations and the Role of Bitcoin The impact of regulatory easing extends beyond one asset. Bitcoin remains a barometer of sorts for the entire crypto market, reflecting investor sentiment and expectations regarding the new conditions. Trump has promised to remove regulatory barriers, which could facilitate institutional investment and accelerate the mass adoption of cryptocurrencies. Markets React to Changes Bitcoin's rise after the election suggests that the market has already begun to factor in changes related to the new president's policies. Entrepreneurs and traders expect Trump to focus on creating a more favorable environment for digital assets. This move could give the United States a strategic advantage in the global cryptocurrency race. Donald Trump's plans for cryptocurrency policy have already changed the mood on the market. His plans to support the digital economy set the stage for further growth in Bitcoin and other assets, with market participants eagerly awaiting the president's first decrees. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Markets under pressure: What do China GDP numbers and US unemployment mean? Slowing amid optimistic expectations US stocks faced a wave of corrections on Thursday after an impressive jump the day before. Investors cautiously analyzed fresh economic data and corporate earnings reports, trying to guess what the Federal Reserve will do next regarding interest rates. Inflation figures released earlier calmed market participants, dispelling concerns about a possible resurgence of price pressure. In addition, strong banking sector earnings on Wednesday became the catalyst for the largest one-day gain in indices since early November. New Data Adds Uncertainty However, Thursday brought cautious optimism. Stocks were mixed, reflecting investor hesitancy. Economic data confirmed that Americans continue to spend vigorously and the labor market remains resilient. These factors suggest that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain a gradual approach to rate cuts through 2025. Market Gainers and Losers On the corporate front, Morgan Stanley (MS.N) results were a positive sign, with shares rising 4.03% on strong fourth-quarter earnings. M&A activity played a key role in the gains. Meanwhile, Bank of America (BAC.N) lost 0.98% despite forecasting interest income growth in 2025, reflecting challenging market expectations. Looking Ahead Investors continue to closely monitor macroeconomic data and corporate results to determine the direction of the market. The current situation highlights the need for a balanced approach, where each new piece of information can become a decisive factor in making investment decisions. Indices fall: cautious optimism gives way to anxiety US stock indices ended Thursday on a minor note. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) lost 68.42 points (0.16%), falling to 43,153.13. The S&P 500 (.SPX) also fell by 12.57 points (0.21%), ending the session at 5,937.34. And the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) showed a more significant fall - 172.94 points (0.89%), closing at 19,338.29. Signals from the Fed: hope for rate cuts Investors focused on statements by Federal Reserve member Christopher Waller. He noted that the regulator may begin to cut interest rates faster than expected if inflation continues to decline. This statement caused Treasury yields to decline, reflecting growing expectations for monetary easing. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell by 3.8 basis points, reaching 4.615%. Meanwhile, futures contracts point to a likely 25 basis point cut by the Fed by May 2025. Tough dynamics: markets seek balance Stock markets are going through a difficult time after the wave of growth caused by the midterm elections in the US. Although the S&P 500 index showed a decline in four of the previous five weeks, the current week promises to end on a positive note. However, the resilience of the economy and slowing inflation create a dual effect. On the one hand, they provide grounds for a more gradual rate cut, but on the other, they raise concerns that the Fed will act more cautiously than market participants expect. Looking Ahead: How Markets Are Adapting to the New Reality The market continues to balance between signals of monetary easing and the resilience of the economy, which could prolong the period of high rates. Investors are waiting for new data to better understand the outlook for market and monetary policy movements in 2025. Tariffs and Inflation: The New Administration Raises Questions Investors are anxiously watching developments around the economic policies of President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office on Monday. The proposed tariff measures, which are actively discussed in Washington, raise concerns that they could lead to increased inflationary pressure in the country. Trump's nominee for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made statements reaffirming the need to preserve the dollar as the world's reserve currency and the independence of the Federal Reserve. At the same time, he stressed the need to tighten sanctions against the Russian oil sector, warning of the risk of "economic catastrophe" if the 2017 tax breaks are not extended until the end of this year. Corporate News: Dow and Nasdaq Under Pressure UnitedHealth (UNH.N) shares fell, dragging the Dow down more than 201 points after weak fourth-quarter revenue fell short of analysts' forecasts. The Nasdaq also suffered significant losses, led by a 4.04% drop in Apple (AAPL.O) shares. Apple is set to lose its position as China's largest smartphone seller to Vivo and Huawei in 2024, according to research firm Canalys, a worrying sign for investors. New Highs and Lows: Trading Results Despite the challenges, U.S. stock markets posted both new gains and losses. The S&P 500 posted 21 new 52-week highs and nine new lows. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite posted 58 new highs, but with a noticeable downside bias — 101 new lows. The ratio of advancers to decliners was 1.81 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.07 to 1 on the Nasdaq, reflecting the advantage of positive moves. Trading Volumes: Activity Declining Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges was 14.31 billion shares, below the average of 15.75 billion over the past 20 trading days. The decline in volumes may indicate growing caution on the part of market participants amid expectations of political changes and corporate earnings. Chinese Markets: Disappointment Despite Growth Chinese markets ended the week with sluggish dynamics despite the published GDP data that exceeded forecasts. The Celestial Empire's economy showed growth of 5%, reaching Beijing's target for 2024. However, the figures failed to inspire investors who had been expecting more momentum to recover from a period of economic uncertainty. Japan: Yen Strength Under Pressure on Stocks Japanese stocks (.N225) also struggled. The key factor was the strengthening yen, which rose above 155 per dollar for the first time in a month. The move raised expectations that the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates at its upcoming meeting, putting additional pressure on export-oriented companies. MSCI Global Index: False Appearance of Growth The MSCI Global Equity Index (.MIWD00000PUS) posted its best weekly performance since early November, but the bulk of that gain came on a single day: Wednesday. Then, strong results from major US banks set a confident tone for the earnings season, providing a short-lived surge in optimism. Political Uncertainty: Trump Inauguration in Focus As Donald Trump's inauguration approaches, markets remain tense. Investors are concerned that his first speech as US President and possible immediate executive orders could change market sentiment. Potential new tariffs against allies and rivals alike remain a major threat to global trade. Bond yields: relief for investors A sharp decline in bond yields, driven by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut by June, has come as a pleasant surprise to global investors. However, the decline has yet to provide much support to the stock market, which remains cautious. Dollar weakness: pause after six-week rally Foreign exchange markets are showing an unusual pattern in recent weeks, with the dollar, which had previously been rising steadily for six weeks, losing momentum and coming under pressure. This change has led traders to focus more on macroeconomic data, which remains a key benchmark for market participants. Pound and euro find support The British pound, which had been under heavy pressure, managed to settle higher by the end of the week. The euro is also showing similar dynamics, which has caught the bears by surprise, who had forecast the single currency falling to parity with the dollar. The strengthening of both currencies adds optimism to European markets, which are gradually starting to emerge from the shadow of the US dollar. Key data: retail sales and inflation The European economic calendar is eventful today. The UK is to publish retail sales figures for December, which could shed light on the resilience of consumer demand in the face of high inflation. The eurozone is to present its final consumer inflation report for December, which will be an important indicator for assessing the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. Speech by the head of the Bank of Spain Attention will also be focused on the speech of the head of the Bank of Spain, Jose Luis Escriva, in Madrid. His speech will focus on the role of central bank independence in the current economic landscape. Escriva is also expected to touch on the current challenges facing financial regulators in the face of turbulent global markets. Forex Market Outlook Investors continue to assess changes in the macroeconomic environment that could impact future currency dynamics. Key data released today, as well as rhetoric from financial institutions, will set the direction for major global currencies in the coming weeks. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Gold reached a monthly peak amid dollar weakness and expectations of rate cuts The price of gold reached its highest level in the last month during trading in Asia on Thursday. This was due to the weakening of the dollar and lower yields on Treasury bonds, which resulted from the publication of less alarming data on consumer inflation. Such indicators have strengthened the expectations of market participants regarding a possible reduction in interest rates this year. February gold futures increased in price by 0.26%, reaching the level of $2,738 per ounce. At the same time, spot gold returned to its previous values after the morning jump and was trading at $2,709 per ounce. This increase is due to hopes that slowing inflation and easing labor market tensions may provide the Fed with an opportunity to lower rates in the near future. But despite this optimism, further growth in the value of gold proved to be limited. The reason for this was the weakening demand for safe haven assets caused by the signing of a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas with the support of the United States. In addition, investors' attention was focused on the upcoming economic reports from the United States, which restrained the fall of the dollar. Preparations for the inauguration of the new President of the United States, Donald Trump, scheduled for Monday, added to the uncertainty. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

The main events by the morning: January 15 Damage from fires in California continues to grow and may reach $275 billion. Damage estimates are increasing almost daily: according to the meteorological agency AccuWeather, the amount has increased from $150 billion to $250-275 billion per day. Meanwhile, firefighters continue to fight the fire. Inflation in Russia may accelerate to 9.8% by the end of 2024. This is the fifth year in a row that the Bank of Russia has failed to meet its 4% target. Analysts note that the weakening of the ruble and rising inflation expectations worsen the prospects for the economy in the first quarter. The current president has been arrested in South Korea for the first time. Yoon Suk-yeol, who was suspended from his duties but formally remains in office, was detained with the participation of 200 police officers and 40 investigators. The arrest was preceded by a clash with his security service, which delayed the operation. The SEC has filed a lawsuit against Elon Musk. The regulator's claims are related to the fact that Musk did not provide the necessary documents when buying Twitter. Donald Trump's closest associate called the SEC's actions «senseless» and suggested focusing on real crimes. The EU may include restrictions on Russian LNG in the 16th package of sanctions. The European Union is discussing a gradual cessation of imports of liquefied natural gas from Russia. The new measures also include restrictions on the supply of Russian aluminum, the disconnection of several banks from SWIFT, as well as sanctions against dozens of Russian vessels. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

The main events by the morning: January 14 A campaign to impose new sanctions against Russian gas and LNG is gaining momentum in Europe. Ten countries, including Sweden, Ireland, Poland and the three Baltic states, are calling for drastic measures that, in their opinion, should sever the last energy ties between Russia and the European Union. Although Russia's oil and pipeline gas exports to Europe have declined, LNG shipments reached record levels in 2024, suggesting that the region remains heavily dependent on Russian energy resources. Republicans In the USA have prepared a bill on the purchase of Greenland. It is planned to be considered after Trump takes office as president. The document is called the «Make Greenland Great Again Act» and has already been supported by 10 congressmen. If the bill is passed, negotiations could begin as early as January 20. This is an ambitious project that could have serious geopolitical consequences. Moscow has received about 3 billion euros in tax revenue from EU companies doing business in Russia. According to Politico, among the 1,600 foreign companies studied that continue to operate in Russia, about 930 are from the EU and the G7. 827 of them are European companies that continue to pay taxes in Russia. Their total revenue in Russia amounted to $81.4 billion. Germany has launched an investigation into Elon Musk on suspicion of election interference. After a series of provocative posts by the billionaire on the social network X, the Bundestag initiated an investigation into the illegal sponsorship of the Alternative for Germany party by an American businessman who spent at least $75 million to support Trump during the US election campaign. Armenia has announced its intention to conclude a strategic partnership agreement with the United States. Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will sign the document on January 14 in Washington. Armenia also supported the draft law on the start of the EU accession process, but Russia has already warned that simultaneous membership in the EU and the EAEU is impossible. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

The main events by the morning: January 13 57.3% of Greenlanders support joining the United States, 37.4% are against, according to a survey by NPO Patriot Polling. The survey was conducted during Donald Trump Jr.'s visit to Greenland, but the sample was small – only 416 participants, which casts doubt on the representativeness of the data. New US sanctions have affected 15% of Russian coal production. The list includes the companies Kuzbassrazrezugol Explosion and Krasnoyarsk Krai Coal. Only one of the companies on the sanctions list operates both for the domestic market and for export, but even this puts significant pressure on the coal industry. Experts note that making payments for supplies is becoming increasingly difficult. Oil prices exceeded $81 per barrel, reaching a four-month high. The strengthening of quotations is due to new US sanctions against Russia, which are expected to limit crude oil exports to China and India. Since January 8, oil prices have increased by more than 6%. The FBI warns of Chinese cyber threats. According to the agency's director, Chinese hackers have introduced malware into critical U.S. infrastructure facilities, including sewage treatment plants, energy networks, natural gas pipelines, and telecommunications systems. Such attacks pose a serious threat to national security. India has refused to buy Russian oil from companies and vessels subject to sanctions. Delhi adheres to a strict position, not accepting oil from tankers subject to sanctions. There are also problems with supplies to China: Three tankers with 2 million barrels of Russian oil were detained in waters off the east coast of China after the introduction of US restrictions. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Nikkei and U.S. Futures Sink Quietly: Where to Look for Resilience Investors Await U.S. Employment Report World stock markets continued to show weakness on Friday as investors waited with bated breath for U.S. employment data, which could either deepen the bond market sell-off or ease the tension a bit. Meanwhile, the dollar is holding steady near a two-year high. U.S. Exchanges in the Red Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%, reflecting tensions among market participants. Wall Street remained closed yesterday for the funeral of former US President Jimmy Carter. Meanwhile, European STOXX 50 futures and the UK FTSE were steady, showing no significant changes. Key Moment of the Day: Employment Data All eyes are on the US non-farm payrolls report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET (1:30 p.m. GMT). Analysts expect the number of jobs to increase by 160,000 in December, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. However, the market is waiting not only for the numbers, but also for their impact on the economy. A stronger result could send 10-year Treasury yields soaring to their highest levels in 13 months. This, in turn, would strengthen the dollar. Possible scenarios According to ING, a result below 150,000 new jobs is needed to avoid further rise in Treasury yields. Any deviation from forecasts could set the markets on a new course, adding to turbulence. Investors around the world are holding their breath, as today's outcome could set the mood for the coming weeks. Employment report could be a turning point Friday's key event, the publication of the US employment report, is causing a lot of speculation among investors and analysts. It is this data that could determine the future trajectory of the bond and currency markets, but experts note that the impact will only be noticeable in the event of a significant deviation from forecasts. Experts warn: a surprise is needed "The employment report, as always, plays a decisive role. But for it to have a noticeable impact, the results need to be significantly different from expectations," said Padraic Garvey, head of research for the Americas at ING. The current situation suggests that markets have already priced in some of the potential outcome. "If the numbers are close to what we expected, there is a chance we could see some reaction to lower yields, which could introduce an element of vulnerability," Garvey added. Fed in no rush to change rates While investors ponder the impact of the new data, officials at the US Federal Reserve are showing caution. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he believes rate cuts are inevitable in the future, but stressed there is no need to act hastily. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, on the other hand, took a harder line, arguing against any immediate rate move. These statements reflect polarized views within the Fed, but markets have already adjusted their expectations. Traders are now forecasting a 43 basis point rate cut in 2025. However, adding to the nervousness are concerns that possible policies of President Donald Trump, including inflation programs, could spur a rise in long-term yields. Bond yields rise, dollar strengthens The current situation in the bond market shows a steady rise in yields. The benchmark yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose by 1.5 basis points, reaching 4.6957%. Although this is slightly below the peak of 4.73% recorded earlier in the week, analysts are closely watching the critical level of 4.739%. If it is broken, the path to the 5% mark could open for the first time since 2007. At the same time, the dollar is strengthening. The dollar index continues to rise for the sixth week in a row, reaching the level of 109.30. This is due to the rise in Treasury yields, which amounted to 9 basis points this week. On the verge of change? The current situation in the market reflects tense anticipation. Investors and analysts are bracing for the employment report to provide new momentum that will either reinforce current trends or force markets to adjust their expectations. Either way, Friday's numbers will be an important guide to future economic and investment decisions. Pressure on the pound, rising commodity prices Amid concerns about the health of the British economy, the pound continues to weaken, with UK government bond yields reaching multi-year highs. At the same time, commodity markets are showing gains, with oil and gold prices rising despite a general decline in Asian stock indices. The British pound under pressure The pound remains under pressure, having fallen 0.2% on Friday to $1.2278, its lowest since November 2023. The currency has lost 1.1% of its value over the week. Meanwhile, UK government bond yields, which reached a 16.5-year high, have retreated somewhat, but remain a concern. Oil and gold markets in positive territory Oil prices ended the week with positive dynamics. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.5% to $74.32 per barrel, giving it a weekly gain of 0.5%. Gold prices were no less impressive: the metal rose 1.3% over the week, reaching $2,674.44 per ounce, which is close to its highest levels since December. These movements indicate growing investor interest in safe assets amid general uncertainty. Asian markets fall Asian stock markets ended the week on a minor note. Japan's Nikkei index lost 0.9% on Friday, bringing its weekly loss to 1.6%. The broad MSCI Asia-Pacific index of shares fell 0.5%, and its weekly loss amounted to 1.2%. Chinese stock markets are also showing weakness, with the blue-chip CSI300 index falling 0.4% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng down 0.5%. The declines are linked to rising Chinese government bond yields after the country's central bank said it would temporarily suspend Treasury purchases due to a shortage. Global sentiment remains tense The overall picture in the markets is that investors are in a holding pattern. Amid weakness in stock markets and tensions over macroeconomic data, attention is focused on the upcoming US employment data. The report could set a new direction for bonds, currencies and commodities. Global markets under pressure as investors await US employment report Global stock and bond markets continue to show volatility amid expectations for key US employment data. US stock index futures are falling while bond yields are reaching new highs. US markets pause, futures lose ground Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% after the US trading session was suspended for the funeral of former President Jimmy Carter. Meanwhile, Europe is expected to open flat, reflecting cautious investor sentiment. Bond Market: Yields at multi-year highs Tensions are rising in the bond market. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note approached 4.739%, above which further gains could be triggered. The yield on the 30-year note rose 11 basis points in a week, reaching its highest in a year. In the UK, the government debt situation is also causing concern, with bond yields soaring to their highest since 2008 amid doubts about the sustainability of the country's fiscal policy. Despite some relief, the market remains at risk. Chinese Yuan Under Pressure, Bond Yields Rise China's central bank has temporarily suspended purchases of Treasury bonds, citing a shortage. However, analysts believe the move is aimed at supporting the national currency, the yuan, which is facing pressure. As a result, Chinese bond yields also rose. Employment Report: Key Indicator of the Week All eyes are on the upcoming US employment report. Forecasts suggest a 160,000 job gain in December, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. However, the range of expectations is quite wide, from 120,000 to 200,000, which leaves room for surprises. Adding to the uncertainty is the annual revision of household survey data, which could adjust unemployment statistics for recent months. This increases the likelihood that the report will have a stronger impact on the markets. Global Markets Hold Their Breath Markets are in a holding pattern as the jobs report could provide fresh impetus for U.S. bonds, the dollar and global stock indexes. Ahead of the data, investors and analysts are bracing for the possibility that a surprise result could be a catalyst for significant change. Key Report Could Be a Game Changer The upcoming US employment data could be a game changer for global markets. Strong numbers could accelerate the rise in US bond yields and strengthen the dollar, while weak numbers could raise new questions about the health of the global economy. Breakthrough to 5%: Bond yields on the threshold of historic highs If the report beats expectations, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note could exceed the important level of 4.739%, opening the way to a psychologically significant 5%. This figure has not been seen since 2007 and would be a powerful signal for bears, strengthening their position in the market. Rising yields will put additional pressure on emerging markets, where the dollar is already playing a destructive role. The US currency, which is at a two-year high, continues to deepen financial problems in economies dependent on external debt. High rates are a threat to stocks The stock market could also react negatively. Higher bond yields and rising discount rates are calling into question lofty valuations, potentially triggering a sell-off. Investors facing rising risks can no longer count on stable stock growth without taking into account new macroeconomic realities. Hope for balance: "Goldilocks" for the US economy The ideal scenario for markets now is a moderately soft report. On the one hand, it should prevent further growth in bond yields and the dollar, on the other, it should not be so weak as to undermine faith in the resilience of the US economy. However, the likelihood of a significant change in the Federal Reserve's course towards lower rates remains extremely low. The focus of the Fed and investors has shifted to the possible consequences of Donald Trump's economic policy in the coming months, where inflation risks may outweigh the need for easing. The pound falls, the dollar strengthens In the currency market, the dollar continues to show growth for the sixth week in a row. The British pound was the biggest loser, down 1% on the week to $1.2303, its lowest in more than a year. The pound's weakness reflects ongoing concerns about the UK's economic outlook and the impact of fiscal policy on its markets. Markets are waiting. The results of the report will determine the next move for bonds, stocks and currencies. A successful balance between strong and weak data could reassure investors, while a significant swing in either direction risks triggering volatility.

The main events by the morning: January 9 Denmark admits the possibility of granting Greenland independence amid pressure from Trump. Although it is difficult to assess the seriousness of the US president-elect's intentions, European leaders reacted quite harshly. The Prime Minister of Greenland has already held a meeting with King Frederik and intensified the rhetoric of independence. Further developments are still uncertain. Trump may impose a state of emergency to legally justify the imposition of new duties against other countries. Such a step would give the president the authority to personally regulate imports and develop a new tariff policy. Against the background of these rumors, the dollar strengthened against major currencies, increasing pressure on global markets. Joe Biden has canceled his last foreign trip to Italy, focusing on fighting large-scale fires in California. The White House said the president will spend the last weeks of his term coordinating disaster relief efforts. The damage from the fires is already estimated at $52-57 billion, and their localization is not yet possible. Trading in X5 shares resumed on the Moscow Stock Exchange. On December 24, the Moscow Stock Exchange announced that the company, which had moved to Russian jurisdiction, had been assigned the ticker «X5». Since July 22, shares of PJSC «Corporate Center X5» have been included in the first level of listing. At the beginning of trading, the share price rose to 3,000 rubles, but after half an hour it fell to the region of 2,750. Bitcoin dropped below $93 thousand on the news of the sale of coins by the US government. The cryptocurrency continues its series of sharp losses as risk appetite has been undermined by the Fed's hawkish signals. It also became known that the US Department of Justice received court permission to sell 69,370 bitcoins (worth $6.5 billion), confiscated during the investigation of the Silk Road case. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

The main events by the morning: January 8 Trump has published a map of the United States with Canada, causing a political outcry. The ex-president continues to provoke the Canadian authorities and the opposition by announcing his plans for the country's accession to the United States. Not only Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is strongly opposed, but also the leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Pouillevre, who promised to prevent the implementation of such initiatives if he won the election. The Russian stock market expects to recover in 2025. Analysts predict an increase in the Moscow Exchange index to 3300-3700 points if geopolitical risks decrease, the key interest rate decreases and high dividends remain. After a weak 2024, investors are counting on improved financial performance. The yuan fell to a minimum amid fears of Trump's sanctions. The yuan exchange rate reached 7.35 per dollar, the highest since September 2023. Markets are afraid of new duties that could force the People's Bank of China to weaken the national currency. On the Moscow Stock Exchange, the yuan also fell to 13.59 rubles (minus 3 kopecks per day). The Contact Group for Ukraine will approve the plan until 2027. At a meeting in Ramstein on January 9, NATO will coordinate Ukraine's long-term military needs, allocating responsibility for supplies in eight key areas, including air defense, armored vehicles and drones. The United States is likely to announce the final aid package under Joe Biden's presidency. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

The main events by the morning: January 8 Trump has published a map of the United States with Canada, causing a political outcry. The ex-president continues to provoke the Canadian authorities and the opposition by announcing his plans for the country's accession to the United States. Not only Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is strongly opposed, but also the leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Pouillevre, who promised to prevent the implementation of such initiatives if he won the election. The Russian stock market expects to recover in 2025. Analysts predict an increase in the Moscow Exchange index to 3300-3700 points if geopolitical risks decrease, the key interest rate decreases and high dividends remain. After a weak 2024, investors are counting on improved financial performance. The yuan fell to a minimum amid fears of Trump's sanctions. The yuan exchange rate reached 7.35 per dollar, the highest since September 2023. Markets are afraid of new duties that could force the People's Bank of China to weaken the national currency. On the Moscow Stock Exchange, the yuan also fell to 13.59 rubles (minus 3 kopecks per day). The Contact Group for Ukraine will approve the plan until 2027. At a meeting in Ramstein on January 9, NATO will coordinate Ukraine's long-term military needs, allocating responsibility for supplies in eight key areas, including air defense, armored vehicles and drones. The United States is likely to announce the final aid package under Joe Biden's presidency. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

The main events by the morning: December 27 The net profit of Russian banks in 2025 may amount to 3.6-4.1 trillion rubles. ACRA estimates that the financial performance of credit institutions will be pressured by rising operating costs and a possible increase in credit risks. Banks' margins will continue to decline, but continued demand for loans will help the sector withstand a difficult year for monetary policy. European countries continue to avoid strict compliance with anti-Russian sanctions. According to the NYT, in addition to European countries wishing to use Russian resources, India and the Persian Gulf countries have significantly increased imports of Russian oil, bringing the figures to record levels. At the same time, the EU's plans to increase arms production remain unfulfilled. Elon Musk warned of possible bankruptcy of the United States if the problem of public debt is not solved. He proposed to create a new department to improve management efficiency and reduce bureaucracy, stating that he was ready to lead it. «Either we will solve this problem, or we will be on the verge of bankruptcy,» Musk wrote in his X account. There is growing dissatisfaction in Germany with the sanctions against Russia, China and Iran. According to a study by Stoppt die Sanctionen, the fatigue index from sanctions measures reached 9 out of 10 possible points, which indicates serious concern among citizens. The dollar's share in global reserves has fallen to its lowest level in 30 years. In the third quarter of 2025, it decreased by 0.85 percentage points, to 57.4%, which was the lowest since 1995. The main reason for the reduction is the increase in investments in euros, which increased to 20.02% compared to 19.75% in the second quarter. Investments in the Japanese yen and non-foreign currencies also increased, with shares of 5.82% and 4.46%, respectively. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Will the Bank of Japan Intervene? Recent media reports have raised concerns about potential intervention by the Bank of Japan due to a significant weakening of the national currency, which has declined by approximately 13% since October. Many banks and investment firms view this as a likely scenario ahead of the Japanese central bank's meeting in January. Let's analyze this situation using technical analysis to find an answer. On the daily chart, we apply three Fibonacci time zones: The first zone from the July peak (brown color). The second zone from the September low (blue color). The third zone from the December 3rd low (green color). We identified a point where three timelines from different zones converge around January 12–13: the 11th line of the brown grid, the 10th line of the blue grid, and the 8th line of the green grid. However, since the chart does not account for future weekends—including the New Year holiday—the adjusted date is closer to January 21–22, coinciding with the BOJ meeting scheduled for January 23–24. It seems that following this meeting, a long-term strengthening of the yen may begin, potentially breaking below the December low and dipping beneath the lower boundary of the ascending pink price channel. In this context, the prospect of intervention becomes less significant, as the USD/JPY pair could decline due to an interest rate hike. There is still a month until the central bank meeting. During this time, a local decline in the currency pair is possible, potentially approaching either the red line of the descending channel or the pink line of the ascending channel. A short-term rise to the 158.70 level may follow, which could ultimately form a triangular (flag-like) pattern. Alternatively, a different chart pattern might emerge if the price fails to break above the upper boundary of the descending price channel (a descending flag). More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Oil Compresses the Spring: Awaiting an Explosion! The upper levels can't, and the lower levels won't? Speculators have increased their oil purchases at the fastest pace since September 2023, driven by expectations that new sanctions against Russia and Iran will tighten supply, while China's stimulus measures will boost demand. However, Brent crude oil prices remain stubbornly stagnant, neither rising nor dropping significantly. Is a revolutionary situation brewing in the oil market? If so, any breakout from the current medium-term range may have to wait until 2025. After all, Christmas is typically a time to pause business activities. Dynamics of Speculative Positions in Oil U.S. President Joe Biden signed a government funding bill that extends through March 2025, which has brought joy to financial markets. A slowdown in the U.S. economy caused by a government shutdown would have been detrimental to investors. Currently, the U.S. is a key driver of global GDP growth and oil demand. Bloomberg experts project a decrease of 2 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending December 20, which is likely to support Brent and WTI oil prices. However, China, India, and other Asian countries are expected to be the primary contributors to global oil demand growth in 2025, accounting for approximately 60% of the increase. OPEC forecasts an increase of 1.45 million barrels per day (b/d), while the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates it at 1.08 million b/d. Global Oil Demand Structure However, the reality may not be as optimistic. The U.S.-China trade war is likely to slow down the Chinese economy. In 2023, China accounted for 16% of global oil demand, equivalent to 16.4 million barrels per day (b/d), an increase from just 9% in 2008. However, the country's strong demand for electric vehicles and its ongoing real estate crisis are reducing its appetite for oil. Gasoline and diesel fuel demand is believed to have peaked and is projected to be 3.6% lower in 2024 than it was in 2021. U.S. tariffs on imports from China are causing concern in the oil market. For example, Donald Trump's statement that the European Union could face tariffs if it doesn't increase purchases of U.S. oil and gas diminished bullish momentum for Brent crude. Consequently, the price of this North Sea grade quickly returned to consolidation, and its price movement now resembles a spring that is being compressed. The question remains: when will it explode? Oil concludes 2024 with mixed sentiments. Optimists expect to see growth in global demand, particularly from Asia and the U.S. In contrast, pessimists warn that non-OPEC+ countries may inundate the market with new supplies, potentially leading to a decrease in prices. From a technical perspective, a triangle pattern continues to form on the daily Brent chart. A breakout above the upper boundary near $74 per barrel could create opportunities for long positions. On the other hand, a decisive breach of the $72 support level would suggest the potential for selling. An aggressive short entry might be considered if the price successfully tests the fair value at $72.45. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Dollar Extinguishes All Candles The brief rally for the EUR/USD currency pair didn't last long. A slowdown in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—an inflation gauge preferred by the Federal Reserve—to 0.1% month-over-month in November, along with statements from FOMC officials indicating that monetary easing would continue into 2025, seemed to trigger a corrective response for the main currency pair. However, comments from Donald Trump on social media and emerging vulnerabilities in the euro brought the situation back to square one. The president-elect of the United States does not intend to spare anyone. He initially focused on Mexico, Canada, and China. Then, he turned his attention to BRICS countries. However, he didn't stop there; he announced that if the European Union did not increase its purchases of oil and gas from the U.S., he would impose tariffs on European imports. This decision put additional pressure on the euro, as such tariffs could further slow down an already fragile European economy. Recent forecasts from Bloomberg experts indicate that the eurozone's GDP is expected to grow by 1% in 2025, a decrease from the previously anticipated 1.2%. In 2026, growth is projected to be 1.2%, lower than the earlier estimate of 1.4%. These revised estimates are below the European Central Bank's projections, which further emphasize the vulnerability of the euro area. Eurozone Economic Trends and Forecasts Germany, once considered the growth engine of Europe, is now causing further economic decline. Analysts forecast that its economy will expand by only 0.4% next year, followed by a 1% growth the year after that. In contrast, the U.S. economy appears to be performing well. The Atlanta Fed's leading indicator suggests a GDP growth of 3.1% in the fourth quarter. Futures markets show a 91% probability that the Fed will pause its monetary easing cycle in January. Meanwhile, the ECB intends to continue reducing interest rates. Christine Lagarde has stated that the ECB is approaching the point where it can assert that inflation has been brought down to the target level of 2%. If this is the case, there would be little reason to maintain high borrowing costs. The increasing interest rate differential favoring the U.S. could lead to a further decline in the EUR/USD exchange rate. Hedge funds and asset managers are increasingly adopting net long positions on the dollar, reaching their highest levels since May. According to HSBC, the dollar is "hitting all the right notes" and shows no signs of weakening in 2025. Additionally, Wells Fargo suggests that Trump's political agenda, including tariffs, will further boost the USD index rally. Speculative Positions in the U.S. Dollar It is highly likely that the U.S. dollar will break tradition and end December in a positive position. This month is typically considered seasonally weak for the American currency, which usually declines at year-end. However, every rule has its exceptions. In the daily chart, another attempt by EUR/USD bulls to launch a counterattack has ended in failure, further demonstrating their weakness. The recent retracement offers an opportunity to open or expand previously established short positions, targeting levels of 1.012 and 1.000. Sticking to the current strategy of selling on pullbacks remains the most logical course of action. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Changes to the Christmas and New Year trading schedule Dear traders, We’d like to congratulate you with the upcoming Christmas and New Year holidays and inform you about changes to the trading schedule those days. Please refer to the table attached on the site to see all the changes and plan your activities accordingly. https://bit.ly/4iOkaJQ