MikhailLF

Morning Market Review 2019-11-28 08:47 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR is slightly strengthening against USD during today's Asian session, adding about 0.02%. The instrument continues trading near 1.1000, which was actively tested for a breakdown the day before. Ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the USA, published on Wednesday, continue to exert moderate pressure on the euro. Annual data on US GDP in Q3 2019 showed an increase of 2.1% YoY, accelerating from the previous 1.9% YoY. Analysts had expected the same growth dynamics to maintain (+1.9% YoY). Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air in October rose sharply by 1.2% MoM after a decline of 0.5% MoM last month. Analysts had expected decline of 0.3% MoM. Chicago PMI in November rose from 43.2 to 46.3 points, which turned out to be slightly worse than forecasts about growth to 47 points. During the day, investors expect the publication of statistics from the euro area on the level of business sentiment. Special attention should be paid to the data from Germany on the November dynamics of Consumer Prices. GBP/USD GBP is growing during the Asian session, adding about 0.15%. The instrument develops an upward momentum formed the day before under the influence of the expectations of the publication of an updated opinion poll from YouGov. Traditionally, forecasts of this kind have a strong influence on the markets, since they enjoy a fairly high trust. According to a published forecast, in the upcoming elections to the British Parliament, 43% of the seats may be taken by candidates from the Conservative Party. The Labor Party can tentatively only get 32% of the seats, which provides Prime Minister Boris Johnson with a confident majority in parliament. AUD/USD AUD is showing an active decline during today's Asian session, trading near local lows of October 17 (0.6758). The instrument continues to develop a "bearish" impulse, formed yesterday when the Australian dollar was under pressure from publications from Westpac. According to Westpac Banking Corp. representative, the RBA may lower its interest rate twice until mid-2020, and is also very likely to initiate a quantitative easing program. Slight pressure on the instrument during the Asian session is exerted by data from Australia. Private New Capital Expenditure in Q3 2019 decreased by 0.2% QoQ after a decrease of 0.5% QoQ in the previous quarter. The indicator turned out to be worse than its forecast, which assumed a decrease of only 0.1% QoQ. USD/JPY USD declines slightly against JPY during today's Asian session, losing about 0.09%. The instrument is corrected from local highs at 109.59, updated the day before (highs of May 31). The development of correctional dynamics for the instrument is facilitated by technical factors that are exacerbated by closed markets in the United States due to Thanksgiving. At the same time, published macroeconomic statistics from Japan hinder the development of a more confident decline. Japanese Retail Sales in October showed a decrease of 14.4% MoM after a 7.2% MoM growth last month. Analysts had expected zero dynamics. In annual terms, the decline in sales was –7.1% YoY after an increase of 9.2% YoY last month. Forecasts suggested a decrease of 4.4% YoY. XAU/USD Gold prices rise slightly during today's Asian session, adding about 0.09%. The instrument is recovering after a moderate decline yesterday, which was due to the publication of a number of good macroeconomic indicators from the United States. In particular, investors were optimistic about the data on the dynamics of US GDP for Q3 2019, which showed an increase from the previous 1.9% YoY to 2.1% YoY. Optimistic forecasts regarding the outcome of the upcoming parliamentary elections in the UK also provide additional pressure on gold. According to several opinion polls, the Conservative Party of Great Britain is gaining a confident majority of seats in parliament, which will allow Boris Johnson to ratify the existing agreement with the EU with minimal resistance and hold Brexit before the next deadline.

Morning Market Review 2019-11-27 08:53 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR is moderately declining against USD in today's Asian session, testing the level of 1.1010 (–0.11%). Some pressure on the euro is exerted by macroeconomic statistics from the USA published the day before. However, it is worth noting that the market is currently quite thin, and investors are in no hurry to open new positions due to the upcoming Thanksgiving in the United States on Thursday. During the day, traders expect publication of German Import Price Index for October, as well as statements by ECB representative Philip Lane. The main attention of the market will be focused on American data on the annual GDP growth rates for Q3 2019 and the dynamics of Personal Income and Expenses for October. GBP/USD GBP is slightly declining during the Asian session, developing a "bearish" momentum formed the day before. The instrument is trading at 1.2854, losing about 0.05%. The pound is retreating amid a rising dollar; however, a more confident downtrend is hindered by positive expectations about the December parliamentary elections. According to a public opinion poll, the Conservative party, led by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, has good chances of winning, which will allow it to ratify the existing deal with the EU with minimal resistance in the future. Slight pressure on the pound during today's Asian session is exerted by Retail Prices data from the UK. BRC Shop Price Index in October fell by 0.5% YoY, accelerating the fall from the previous –0.4% YoY. NZD/USD NZD is stable against USD during today's Asian session, trading near its weekly local high at 0.6432. The development of the "bullish" trend was supported by good macroeconomic data on the dynamics of Retail Sales from New Zealand. During the Asian session, moderate support for the pair is provided by data on New Zealand Exports. At the end of October, Exports grew from 4.36B to 5.03B dollars, which turned out to be better than the average market expectations. Imports for the same period also increased from 5.68B to 6.05B dollars. The Trade Deficit in October amounted to –1.013B dollars compared to the previous –1.319B dollars, while the forecast assumed the deficit to increase to the level of –1.621B. USD/JPY USD is strengthening against JPY during today's Asian session, adding about 0.08%. The dollar is supported by optimistic news regarding the process of trade negotiations between the US and China, which contribute to increased demand for risky assets. The day before, the Ministry of Commerce of China reiterated that telephone calls between the parties "have made progress in resolving a number of issues". However, as before, no specific information was received, and the market can only guess when exactly Washington and Beijing plan to sign a preliminary trade agreement. With the opening of the American session, investors expect the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the United States. Among other things, the market expects the release of data on the dynamics of Personal Consumption, Pending Home Sales, annual data on GDP for Q3 2019, and statistics on Personal Expense and Income for October. XAU/USD Gold prices are consolidating during today's Asian session, correcting slightly after moderate growth the day before. Quotes are located at around 1458.83, losing about 0.22%. The instrument was supported by uncertain prospects around the US-Chinese trade negotiations, despite restrained optimistic comments by officials. In addition, gold rose in response to the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics on Consumer Confidence in the United States. The market also reacted to Jerome Powell's speech at the Chamber of Commerce. During the annual dinner, the head of the Fed was rather optimistic about the economic prospects of the United States, which was perceived by investors as a refusal to further raise rates in the near future.

Morning Market Review 2019-11-26 08:38 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR again shows ambiguous dynamics during today's Asian session, trading near the opening level of 1.1012. The euro remains under pressure against the backdrop of a growing dollar, which finds support among the improved prospects for a trade agreement between the United States and China. It became known that the PRC will nevertheless raise fines for violating the law on intellectual property rights, which previously served as a very significant obstacle to the dialogue between the two countries. However, this does not mean that the parties are ready to sign the final agreement, although there is not much time left before the date of a possible increase in import duties on the part of the United States. During the day, investors expect speeches by representatives of the ECB, who will comment on the results of the first speech by Christine Lagarde as President of the ECB. GBP/USD GBP remains relatively stable during the Asian session, slightly correcting (–0.05%) after moderate growth the day before. Support for the pound, as before, is provided by forecasts regarding the upcoming elections to the British Parliament. According to several opinion polls, the Conservative Party has good chances to get an overwhelming number of seats in Parliament, which will allow it to ratify the existing agreement with the EU. Currently, more than 40% of voters support Boris Johnson, while slightly less than 30% are ready to vote for the Labor Party. CBI Distributive Trades Survey provided slight support to the instrument yesterday. In November, sales fell by 3% MoM after a decline of 10% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected negative dynamics to remain at –0.10% MoM. NZD/USD NZD is showing slight growth against USD during today's Asian session. Currently, the pair is trading at 0.6420, adding about 0.21%. At the opening of the session, there was a decline to 0.6404, caused by the growth of correctional sentiment in favor of the US currency. Active support for NZD is provided by statistics from New Zealand. In Q3 2019, Retail Sales grew by 1.6% QoQ after growing by 0.2% QoQ in the previous quarter. The indicator also turned out better than its forecasts (+1.2% QoQ). Core Retail Sales rose by 1.8% QoQ with a forecast of +1.5% QoQ. USD/JPY USD showed strong growth against JPY at the opening of today's Asian session, rising to 109.19 and updating the local highs of November 12. The "bullish" activity on the instrument has significantly decreased, but the dollar retains its advantage, adding about 0.04%. The US currency is supported by news regarding US-Chinese trade negotiations. Investors believe that the parties will have time to agree before the deadline for the next increase in import duties. China is expected to increase fines for violation of intellectual property rights. In turn, support for the yen during the Asian session was provided by the data on Corporate Services Price Index in Japan. In October, prices rose sharply by 2.1% YoY after a slight increase of 0.5% YoY a month earlier, which may indicate a gradual acceleration of inflation in the country. XAU/USD Gold prices are stable during today's Asian session and are located near local lows of November 12 (at 1451.34). In general, the instrument maintains a moderate downtrend that has formed in the middle of last week. Pressure on gold quotes is exerted by growing optimism about the prospects for a trade agreement between the United States and China. According to the media, Washington and Beijing are "very close" to the conclusion of a preliminary agreement, but there is still little information. In addition, the situation with the upcoming UK parliamentary elections, which are expected to contribute to the early conclusion of a trade deal with the EU, also contributes to increased demand for risky assets.

Morning Market Review 2019-11-25 08:48 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR shows flat dynamics during today's Asian session, slightly correcting after a sharp decline at the end of last week. The reason for the negative dynamics was the weak macroeconomic statistics from Europe. Markit Composite PMI in the euro area fell from 50.6 to 50.3 points in November, while investors expected the indicator to rise to 50.9 points. At the same time, Services PMI decreased from 52.2 to 51.5 points, while Manufacturing PMI rose from 45.9 to 46.6 points, which was better than market expectations of 46.4 points. In addition, the market responded to Christine Lagarde's first appearance as the new ECB President. Lagarde avoided any details in her speech, but noted the need for a "revision of European monetary policy". In addition to applying traditional measures, the head of the European regulator plans to bet on stimulating investment in business and increasing productivity. GBP/USD GBP is growing slightly against USD today, opening with a small gap upwards after a sharp decline last Friday. Currently, the pound is trading near 1.2844, adding about 0.07%. GBP is still under pressure from the macroeconomic statistics from Great Britain published on Friday. Markit Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.6 to 48.3 points in November against a forecast of a decline of only to 49 points. Markit Services PMI corrected from 50 to 48.6 points with a neutral outlook. Meanwhile, investors were optimistic about the statement by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who presented the Conservative Party’s election manifesto over the weekend. In addition, Johnson plans to send a draft agreement with the EU to Parliament by December 25. Early parliamentary elections are to be held in the country on December 12. AUD/USD AUD is showing moderate growth against USD, correcting after the "bearish" end of the past week. To date, the pair has reached 0.6794, adding about 0.13%. The instrument is supported once again by a changing trend in sentiments around US-Chinese trade negotiations. The market was inspired after a series of optimistic comments by Donald Trump that the parties are close to concluding an agreement. However, the date and place of signing the final agreement are still not defined, and differences remain between Washington and Beijing. A more confident growth of the instrument is hindered by rather weak macroeconomic statistics published in Australia. The data on the PMI published last Friday turned out to be worse than the average market forecasts. In particular, Commonwealth Services PMI fell from 50.1 to 49.5 points in November, with a very optimistic forecast for growth to 53.5 points. USD/JPY USD is growing paired with JPY, updating local highs of November 19 at 108.79 (+0.1%). The growth of the instrument is due to the publication of good macroeconomic statistics from the US last Friday, as well as the growth of optimistic sentiment regarding the possible conclusion of a trade agreement between the US and China. The US Markit Manufacturing PMI grew from 51.3 to 52.2 points in November against the forecast of increase to 51.5 points. Services PMI rose from 50.6 to 51.6 points with the forecast of 51 points. During the day, investors expect publication from Japan of data on the dynamics of coinciding and leading indicators, but it is unlikely that these indicators will noticeably affect the dynamics of the instrument. XAU/USD Gold prices are falling slightly during today's Asian session, trading near 1461.24 (–0.04%). Reduction in quotes was due to the growth of optimism regarding the possibility of concluding a trade agreement between the United States and China. Commenting on the current situation, Donald Trump noted that countries are "very close" to the conclusion of the agreement, but there are still no approximate dates. Strengthening the position of the American currency also contributes to the development of corrective moods in the instrument against the background of the publication of good macroeconomic statistics on PMI in the USA in November.

Morning Market Review 2019-11-22 08:51 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR is slightly strengthening against USD during the Asian session, having added 0.06% till the present moment. Insignificant support for the instrument is provided by rather weak positions of the American currency, which came under pressure after the publication of ambiguous data from the USA the day before. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 15 remained at the level of 227K, with a forecast of a decline to 219K. Continuing Jobless Claims rose from 1.692M to 1.695M, while analysts expected a reduction to 1.685M. During the day, European investors expect the publication of statistics from Germany and the euro area on GDP dynamics and levels of business activity. In addition, the market is waiting for the speech of the new ECB Governor Christine Lagarde, who can make significant changes to the policy of the European regulator. GBP/USD During the Asian session, the pair is showing weak growth, slightly strengthening by 0.08%. The focus on investors remains on the situation around the US-Chinese trade negotiations, which may end in failure. The day before, the PRC noticeably increased criticism of the US after the approval of a bill in the US Senate on the possible restriction of China’s trade preferences in the USA in case of violation of human rights and freedoms in Hong Kong. Negative forecasts on trade negotiations suggest that in mid-December, the United States will introduce new import duties on Chinese goods, which will contribute to the escalation of tension. In the afternoon, investors expect publication of statistics from the UK on the Manufacturing and Services PMI for November. AUD/USD AUD is showing slight growth against USD during today's Asian session, adding about 0.05%. The instrument is trying to correct after an active decline for two consecutive sessions; however, the Australian dollar has little fundamental support. Investors are focused on Friday's statistics on business activity indexes. The Commonwealth Bank Services PMI in November showed a decrease from 50.1 to 49.5 points. The indicator turned out significantly worse than its forecasts, which assumed its growth to 53.5 points. Manufacturing PMI over the same period fell from 50 to 49.9 points, which was 0.1 points better than market expectations. Composite PMI in November corrected down from 50 to 49.5 points, entering the stagnation zone. USD/JPY USD showed ambiguous dynamics of trading against JPY during the Asian session. The instrument practically did not depart from its opening level at around 108.62. The yen ignored moderately optimistic macroeconomic data from Japan. Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy rose in October by 0.7% YoY, accelerating from the previous 0.5% YoY. Forecasts suggested an increase of 0.5% YoY. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in November rose from 48.4 to 48.6 points, slightly not reaching the expected values of 48.7 points. XAU/USD Gold is stable during the Asian session and is trading at the level of opening at 1463.72. The day before, quotations showed moderate negative dynamics, which was caused by the appearance of optimistic news around the process of trade negotiations between China and the United States. It became known that Beijing invited a team of American negotiators to a new round of discussion of the agreement, despite continuing disagreements. Meanwhile, quotes are supported by the situation surrounding ongoing protests in Hong Kong. The United States have passed a series of bills that support civil protest and seek to exert pressure on China, recalling the need to respect human rights.

Morning Market Review 2019-11-21 08:55 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed a flat dynamics of trading against USD on Wednesday, locating near the local highs, updated on November 18. Further development of the "bullish" trend was hindered by the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Europe. The markets reacted negatively to the release of the report on financial stability in the euro area, which, among other things, pointed to the growing risks of a slowdown in the European economy against the backdrop of continuing uncertainty in world markets. German Producer Price Index in October fell by 0.2% MoM after rising by 0.1% MoM in the previous month. In annual terms, the indicator decreased by 0.6% YoY after the decrease by 0.1% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline by 0.4% YoY. Today, the instrument is trading in both directions. Investors are awaiting speeches by ECB representatives, Yves Mersch and Luis de Guindos, as well as the publication of information on the last ECB meeting on monetary policy. GBP/USD GBP ended Wednesday trading with flat dynamics against USD. During the day, the instrument was moderately reduced, but by the end of the afternoon session, it managed to fully recoup. Wednesday's macroeconomic background remained fairly calm, so the previous drivers were in the spotlight of investors. Markets are following the election campaign in the UK, responding positively to a series of opinion polls that revealed a slight conservative advantage. The election to the British Parliament should be held in mid-December. If Boris Johnson's party wins the election, the Parliament will probably have time to ratify the agreement with the EU, and the UK will be able to leave the union, bypassing the so-called hard Brexit. AUD/USD AUD showed a moderate decline against USD on Wednesday, reversing downwards after quite active growth the day before. The pressure on the instrument again comes from the uncertainty surrounding US-China trade negotiations, which seem to be at an impasse. Donald Trump said that if the signing of the deal breaks, then in December, import duties on Chinese goods may be raised even higher than previously planned values. In addition, the complication of relations between the countries was facilitated by the meeting of the US Senate, which approved bills supporting civil unrest in Hong Kong. Beijing has already commented on the decisions taken by the Senate, calling them "interference in China's domestic policy". USD/JPY USD showed a slight increase against JPY on Wednesday, but again returned to decline during today's Asian session. The emergence of the uptrend yesterday was due to weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Japanese exports went down by 9.2% YoY in October after the decline by 5.2% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline of 7.6% YoY. Imports for the same period decreased by 14.8% YoY after a decrease of 1.5% YoY in September. Forecasts suggested a decrease of 16% YoY. Support for the Japanese currency, in turn, is provided by an increase in demand for safe assets amid worsening prospects for trade negotiations between the US and China, a breakdown of which can lead to a further decline in the global economy. Oil Oil prices rose significantly on Wednesday, reacting to the publication of EIA Crude Oil Inventories report, according to which, the volume of oil reserves for the week ending November 15 increased by 1.379 million barrels after an increase of 2.219 million barrels over the past period. Analysts had expected an increase of 1.543 million barrels. At the same time, Cushing Crude Oil Inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels to 44.2 million barrels, while gasoline reserves increased by 1.8 million barrels to 220.8 million barrels. The volume of oil production in the United States did not change compared to last week and amounted to 12.800 million barrels per day. Additional support for oil quotes was provided by another aggravation of the situation in the Middle East. Another attack on oil tankers occurred in the Persian Gulf, after which the US Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group sailed through the Strait of Hormuz.

Morning Market Review 2019-11-20 08:54 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed ambiguous dynamics of trading on Tuesday, halting the development of an active "bullish" impulse, which remained since last Thursday. The development of flat dynamics was facilitated by weak macroeconomic statistics from Europe. Construction Output in September decreased by 0.7% YoY after an increase of 0.8% YoY in the previous month. Experts expected the index to accelerate to 2.7% YoY. In monthly terms, the indicator grew by 0.74% MoM after a decline of 0.82% MoM in August. The indicator was stronger than the forecast of +0.7% MoM. Investors are also focused on an uncertain situation around the US-Chinese trade negotiations. Despite the continued optimistic sentiment of some politicians, the situation seems to have come to a standstill, and so far it seems that Donald Trump will introduce new import duties on Chinese goods on December 15. GBP/USD GBP showed a correctional decline on Tuesday, retreating from the local highs of October 22, updated the day before. Pressure on the instrument was exerted by moderately optimistic macroeconomic indicators from the US. At the same time, GBP was supported by hopes for a positive outcome for the Brexit deal in the upcoming British parliamentary elections in December. According to recent opinion polls, the Conservative party has good chances of winning, which theoretically allows it to get the majority of seats in Parliament and ratify the current version of the agreement with the EU. American statistics indicated a moderate growth in the construction market. Building Permits increased from 1.391M to 1.461M in October with a forecast of 1.385M. Housing Starts in October rose from 1.266M to 1.314M, which only slightly fell short of forecasts of 1.320M. AUD/USD AUD showed moderate growth against USD on Tuesday, updating local highs of November 14. During the day, the instrument mainly declined, remaining under pressure after the publication of controversial minutes of the RBA meeting. In addition, the uncertain situation around the trade negotiations between the US and China, which has been noticeably complicated lately, is also putting pressure on AUD. Today, the instrument has returned to decline. Investors are focusing on publications from Australia, as well as the decision of the People's Bank of China on the interest rate. Westpac Leading Index fell by 0.07% in October, after falling by 0.12% last month. The Chinese regulator, in turn, unexpectedly lowered its interest rate from 4.2% to 4.15%, apparently trying to support an economy that is showing a slowing trend. USD/JPY USD maintains a moderate downward trend, paired with JPY, updating local lows of November 14. Demand for a "safe" yen is growing again as the next local crisis develops in US-China trade negotiations. Donald Trump is still not going to abolish previously imposed import duties, and China is in no hurry to clarify the exact volume of imports of American agricultural products in the agreement. Today, the instrument continues to develop a "bearish" trend, ignoring uncertain macroeconomic publications from Japan. Japanese exports went down by 9.2% YoY in October after the decline by 5.2% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline of 7.6% YoY. Imports for the same period decreased by 14.8% YoY after a decrease of 1.5% YoY in September. The indicator turned out better than its forecasts of –16% YoY. As a result, the overall Trade Balance in October turned out to be surplus at 17.3B Japanese yen. In the previous month, the trade balance showed a deficit of 124.8B Japanese yen. Oil Oil prices showed a noticeable decline on Tuesday, responding to negative forecasts by analysts regarding the prospects for a trade agreement between the United States and China. Additional pressure on the quotes was exerted by news about an increase in oil production in Norway, as the country managed to start developing the Johan Sverdrup field ahead of schedule. Finally, the American Petroleum Institute report, published on Tuesday, turned out to be a negative factor, showing that in the week ending November 15, US oil reserves rose sharply by 5.954M barrels after a decrease of 0.5M barrels over the past period. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of an official report from the US Department of Energy.

Morning Market Review 2019-11-19 08:34 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed strong growth against USD on Monday, updating local highs of November 7. The euro was supported by optimistic statements by American officials who again spoke out for the early conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China. However, disagreements between the parties remain. The main requirement of Beijing, the cancellation of previously introduced tariffs, remains unfulfilled, and it is unlikely that Donald Trump will decide to change his position on this issue. In turn, China is in no hurry to include the exact volumes of US agricultural imports into the agreement. Today, the euro is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers at the market. Investors are focused on statistics on Construction Output in the euro area. With the opening of the American session, the focus will shift to data on US Housing Starts in October. GBP/USD GBP rose against USD on Monday, noting new local highs since October 22. The growth of the British currency, in addition to the technical factors of the dollar correction, was facilitated by optimistic news after opinion polls, which strengthened the belief in the victory of the Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative party in the upcoming parliamentary elections. In addition, some of the seats in parliament may go to candidates from the Brexit party, led by Nigel Farage. Of course, when voting for a deal in parliament, Farage will support Johnson, which significantly increases the chances of a favorable outcome with the situation with Brexit in December-January. AUD/USD AUD showed flat dynamics against USD on Monday, reacting to the weak macroeconomic background of the beginning of the week. The instrument was slightly supported by data on Foreign Direct Investment in the Chinese economy. In October, investment volumes grew by 6.6% YoY after an increase of 6.5% YoY in the previous month. Today, the pair is falling again, smoothly returning to the local lows updated last week. The instrument is under pressure from the RBA meeting minutes from November 5. Despite the fact that the RBA kept the interest rate unchanged last time, investors fear that the difficult economic situation will force the regulator to take new stimulation measures. The published protocols do not talk about this directly, but they signal a persistent low inflation rate. USD/JPY USD showed growth against JPY on Monday, but could not stay at the occupied highs and returned to the red zone closer to the end of the afternoon session. The growth of the instrument is facilitated by the appearance of a number of optimistic signals regarding trade negotiations between the US and China; however, the parties still did not agree on the time and place of a possible signing of the agreement. Today, the instrument is declining again, and investors expect new drivers to appear on the market. The market is focused on the publication of US statistics on Housing Starts in the United States, as well as a new round of negotiations between Japan and South Korea in the WTO. Oil Oil prices showed a decline on Monday, responding to the emergence of contradictory signals regarding the prospects of signing a trade agreement between the United States and China. In addition, the OPEC+ meeting in early December remains in the spotlight of investors. It is expected that the cartel will decide to extend the current deal to reduce oil production amid continued low demand for oil products. Last week, OPEC announced that it expects a decline in oil demand in 2020 due to ongoing trade wars and a slowdown in the global economy. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report for the week ending November 15.

Morning Market Review 2019-11-18 09:00 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR grew moderately against USD on Friday, continuing the development of the "bullish" impulse formed the day before. The growth of the instrument was largely technical in nature, since there were almost no fundamental factors at the market. Friday's macroeconomic inflation statistics from the euro area turned out to be ambiguous, but, in general, met the expectations of the market. Consumer Price Index in October slowed down from +0.2% MoM to +0.1% MoM with a neutral outlook. In annual terms, growth in consumer inflation amounted to the previous +0.7% YoY. Core Consumer Price Index in October increased by 0.1% MoM and 1.1% YoY, which fully coincided with preliminary estimates by experts. Today, the euro remains growing against the dollar. During the day, investors are awaiting speeches by ECB representatives Luis de Guindos and Philip Lane. GBP/USD GBP is growing moderately against USD, updating local highs of November 4. The growth of the British currency at the end of last week was contributed by not the most confident macroeconomic statistics from the US, which prompted investors to further sales of the dollar. In turn, the pound remains under pressure from uncertainty around Brexit and the upcoming early parliamentary elections in December. Analysts fear that the election results will not clarify the process of negotiating a deal with the EU, since none of the parties will be able to take over the vast majority in parliament. Today, the pound continues its active upward trend, despite the publication of controversial macroeconomic statistics from the UK. The Rightmove House Price Index in November decreased by 1.3% MoM after an increase of 0.6% MoM in October. YoY, the index rose from –0.2% to +0.3%. AUD/USD AUD showed strong growth against USD on Friday, which allowed the instrument to partially recoup its losses after a sharp decline the day before. The appearance of correctional dynamics was largely due to technical factors, as well as the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from the United States. Industrial Production in the USA in October decreased by 0.8% MoM after a decrease of 0.3% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected reduction by 0.4% MoM. Capacity Utilization Rate in October decreased from 77.5% to 76.7%, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 77.1%. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index in November fell from 4 to 2.9 points, while analysts expected a growth rate of up to 5 points. USD/JPY USD showed corrective growth against JPY on Friday, retreating from local lows of November 4. The growth of the instrument was due to the publication of strong macroeconomic statistics from Japan and weak data from the USA. Japan's Industrial Production in September increased by 1.3% YoY after rising by 1.1% YoY in the previous month. In monthly terms, production grew by 1.7% MoM after a decrease of 1.2% MoM in the previous month and with a forecast of +1.4% MoM. Capacity Utilization in September increased by 1% after a decrease of 2.9% in August. Analysts expected a negative trend to remain at the level of –0.6%. Similar statistics on Industrial Production from the United States turned out to be weaker than their forecasts, and the position of the US currency was supported only by data on Retail Sales. In October, Retail Sales grew by 0.3% MoM after a decline of 0.3% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected increase by 0.2% MoM. Oil Oil prices showed moderate growth on Friday, reacting to the appearance of optimistic signals regarding the process of trade negotiations between the United States and China. On Thursday, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow noted that the parties are close to signing the final document. Last weekend, a telephone conversation took place between the head of the Chinese delegation, Liu He, with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. The results of the conversation were positive, and the parties agreed to continue negotiations during the current week. Finally, quotes were supported by the published Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Report, according to which the number of operating drilling rigs in the US decreased from 684 to 674 units during the reporting week.

Morning Market Review 2019-11-15 08:51 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed moderate growth against USD on Thursday, interrupting the development of a downward rally since November 4. The appearance of correctional dynamics was facilitated by moderately optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the euro area. German GDP in Q3 2019 increased by 0.1% QoQ, accelerating from the previous value of –0.2% QoQ. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.1% QoQ. In annual terms, GDP increased by 1.0% YoY after falling by 0.1% YoY in Q2 2019. Forecasts suggested an increase of 0.9% YoY. In the euro area, economic growth was less noticeable. In quarterly terms, the EU GDP added the previous 0.2% QoQ, and in annual terms it accelerated from +1.1% YoY to +1.2% YoY. GBP/USD GBP rose against USD on Thursday, rising to local highs, updated earlier this week. The growth of the instrument was largely determined by technical factors, while the macroeconomic background from the UK remained negative. UK Retail Sales in October showed a decrease of 0.1% MoM, despite an expected increase of 0.2% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator strengthened by 3.1% YoY, which coincided with the data for the previous month. Analysts expected an increase of 3.7% YoY. Core Retail Sales for the same period decreased by 0.3% MoM after rising 0.2% MoM in September. In annual terms, the index slowed down from 2.9% YoY to 2.7% YoY against a forecast of 3.4% YoY. AUD/USD AUD closed Thursday trading with a steady decline against USD, updating local lows of October 17. Pressure on the instrument was exerted by disappointing macroeconomic statistics on employment from Australia. October Employment Rate fell by 19.0K after rising by 14.7K in the previous month. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at 15.0K. Australia's Unemployment Rate, as expected, rose from 5.2% to 5.3%. Additional negative impact on the instrument had Chinese data. In October, China's Industrial Production slowed down from 5.8% YoY to 4.7% YoY, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 5.4% YoY. Retail Sales in China over the same period decreased from 7.8% YoY to 7.2% YoY, which also turned out to be weaker than market forecasts of 7.9% YoY. USD/JPY USD showed a decline against JPY on Thursday, updating local lows of November 4. The growth of the Japanese currency proceeded against the background of the publication of extremely weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Japanese GDP in Q3 2019 increased by 0.1% QoQ after growing by 0.4% QoQ in the previous period. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.2% QoQ. In annual terms, GDP has slowed from 1.8% YoY to 0.2% YoY, with the forecast of 0.8% YoY. Given such weak data, investors fear that the Bank of Japan will take new measures to stimulate the economy, which will put additional pressure on the yen. Anyway, as long as the market remains at a high degree of uncertainty caused by the lack of progress in trade negotiations between the United States and China, the Japanese currency will be in demand. Oil Oil prices showed moderate growth on Thursday, but could not stay at new levels and returned to the red zone closer to the end of the afternoon session. Pressure on quotes was exerted by the report from the US Department of Energy. According to the data, the volume of crude oil in the United States for the week ending November 8 rose by 2.219M barrels after rising by 7.929M barrels for the previous period. Analysts had expected an increase in stocks of 1.649M barrels. The report also indicated a further increase in US oil production from 12.600M barrels to 12.800M barrels.

Morning Market Review 2019-11-14 08:51 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed ambiguous dynamics against USD on Wednesday, updating local lows of October 15. Yesterday's macroeconomic statistics from the EU failed to provide significant support to EUR. German Consumer Price Index in October showed an increase of 0.1% MoM and 1.1% YoY, which fully coincided with market expectations. Harmonized Consumer Price Index for the same period increased by 0.1% MoM and 0.9% YoY, which also agrees with expert estimates. In turn, Industrial Production in the euro area in September rose from –2.8% YoY to –1.7% YoY with a forecast of growth to –2.3% YoY. In monthly terms, production volumes, on the contrary, slowed down from 0.4% MoM to 0.1% MoM, which turned out to be better than market expectations of –0.3% MoM. Today, the euro is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers at the market. Investors will focus on the EU GDP for Q3 2019 and a quarterly report on the Employment Rate. GBP/USD GBP ended Wednesday trading with multi-directional dynamics against USD. Additional pressure on the pound was exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Consumer Price Index in October showed a decrease of 0.2% MoM after an increase of 0.1% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected "bearish" trend to appear, but counted on only –0.1% MoM decline. In annual terms, the index has slowed from 1.7% YoY to 1.5% YoY, with the forecast of 1.6% YoY. Retail Price Index in October showed a negative trend of –0.2% MoM, which coincided with the data of the previous month. In annual terms, the index has slowed from 2.4% YoY to 2.1% YoY, with the forecast of 2.2% YoY. Today, the pair maintains its previous dynamics, waiting for the release of new data. British investors are interested in the publication of October statistics on retail sales. Moderately optimistic data is expected to appear, which may provide some support for the British currency. AUD/USD AUD showed ambiguous dynamics against USD on Wednesday, closing the session with almost zero result. The reason for the development of flat trading was controversial macroeconomic statistics from Australia and the United States, as well as recent comments by Donald Trump, who did not shed light on the prospects of concluding a trade agreement between the United States and China. Moreover, many investors considered the speech of the American president a signal for their possible complication, since Trump again accused China of "manipulation" and noted that the deal would be signed only on condition that it would be "useful" for the US economy. Today, the instrument is steadily declining in response to the publication of disappointing statistics from Australia and China. Australia's Employment Change in October showed a decline of 19K after an increase of 12.5K in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth by 15K. Australia's Unemployment Rate, as expected, rose from 5.2% to 5.3%. USD/JPY USD fell against JPY on Wednesday, updating local lows of November 7. USD continues to decline amid growing demand for safe assets after a speech by Donald Trump left questions about the prospects for a trade agreement between the United States and China unanswered. In addition, in his speech, the American president also accused the leadership of the EU of manipulation, which could complicate consultations on this issue and lead to an additional increase in world trade tension. Today, the instrument maintains a moderate downtrend, despite the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Japan's GDP in Q3 2019 showed an increase of only 0.1% QoQ, slowing down from the previous value of 0.3% QoQ. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.2% QoQ. Oil Oil prices showed moderate growth on Wednesday, receiving support from optimistic OPEC statements. Cartel Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo noted that there are no signs of a global recession in the world economy, so an increase in demand is quite possible as economic growth resumes. In addition, OPEC expects a slowdown in shale oil production, which should also have a beneficial effect on the balance of supply and demand in the market. Finally, quotes were supported by API Crude Oil Stock Report, according to which oil reserves fell by 0.5M barrels over the week ending November 8, after rising by 4.26M barrels in the previous reporting period.

Morning Market Review 2019-11-13 08:48 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed a moderate decline against USD on Tuesday, updating local lows of October 15. The euro got some support from macroeconomic statistics from Europe. German ZEW Economic Sentiment in November showed a sharp increase from –22.8 to –2.1 points with a forecast of –13 points. German ZEW Current Conditions for the same period rose from –25.3 to –24.7 points, which turned out to be worse than the forecasts of –22 points. The EU ZEW Economic Sentiment in November showed strong positive dynamics, increasing from –23.5 to –1 point with a forecast of –32.5 points. The pressure on the instrument, in turn, was exerted by the results of Donald Trump's speech at the New York Economic Club. Trump remained true to his previous statements and touched very little on the topic of US-European trade relations, noting that the EU is increasingly setting up "terrible" trade barriers. GBP/USD GBP showed ambiguous dynamics of trading on Tuesday, interrupting the development of the "bullish" impulse formed the day before. The instrument was under pressure from contradictory macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Claimant Count Change in October rose sharply from 13.5K to 33K, while analysts had expected an increase of only 21.3K. Average Earnings ex Bonus in September slowed down from +3.8% 3MoY to +3.6% 3MoY with a neutral forecast. In turn, the Unemployment Rate in September fell from 3.9% to 3.8% (3M/3M). Today, the pound is also showing ambiguous dynamics, waiting for new drivers to appear at the market. Investors expect the publication of statistics on consumer and industrial inflation for October. AUD/USD AUD showed a decline against USD on Tuesday, having updated local lows of October 28. The further development of negative dynamics in the instrument was facilitated by Donald Trump, who spoke on Tuesday at the New York Economic Club. Investors were waiting for statements on the development of trade relations between the United States and China, which hovered before the signing of the preliminary agreement, but the US president did not say anything new about this. Trump noted that China is still striving to conclude a trade agreement, but the deal will only be signed on terms profitable to the US economy. If the agreement is not concluded, then the United States is ready to introduce new import duties. USD/JPY USD showed ambiguous dynamics against JPY on Tuesday, closing with a slight "bearish" margin. Moderate support for the Japanese currency is still provided by the uncertain situation surrounding the conclusion of a preliminary trade deal between the United States and China. Donald Trump’s speech on Tuesday again did not clarify this issue; therefore, one should not exclude further moderate growth in demand for Japanese currency. In turn, weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan does not allow the instrument to develop a more confident decline. Machine Tool Orders data published on Tuesday showed a decrease of 37.4% YoY in October after a decrease of 35.5% YoY in September. Oil Oil prices showed ambiguous trading dynamics on Tuesday, reacting to the neutral results of Donald Trump's speech. The US President did not say anything new about the prospects for concluding a trade deal, so the uncertainty surrounding this issue only intensifies, since the threat of introducing new import duties remains. Today, oil quotes show a slight decrease. Investors expect the publication of statistics on consumer inflation from the United States, as well as the release of API Weekly Crude Oil Stock for the week ending November 8.

Morning Market Review 2019-11-12 08:46 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed correctional growth on Monday, recovering slightly after a steady decline of last week. The uptrend appeared due to technical factors, since no interesting macroeconomic statistics from the US or Europe were released yesterday. American markets were also closed due to Veterans Day. One way or another, investors are still focusing on trade negotiations between the United States and China. Optimism regarding the early conclusion of a preliminary agreement gave way to doubts after Donald Trump announced that he was not going to revise the current policy on increased import duties. Today, the instrument is relatively stable, expecting new drivers to appear on the market. Investors expect the publication of November statistics on ZEW Economic Sentiment, as well as statements by ECB representatives, Coeure and Mersch. GBP/USD GBP rose significantly against USD yesterday, rising to the local highs of November 5. The pound managed to show growth on Monday, despite the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Industrial Production in September fell by 0.3% MoM after a decline of 0.7% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline of 0.2% MoM. In annual terms, production decreased by 1.4% YoY, slightly improving dynamics from the previous month at –1.8% YoY. UK GDP in Q3 2019 showed an increase of 0.3% QoQ after a decrease of 0.2% QoQ in Q2 2019. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.4% QoQ. In annual terms, the British economy slowed down from +1.3% YoY to +1% YoY, which also turned out to be slightly worse than forecasts of +1.1% YoY. Today, the pound remains prone to further growth. Traders are awaiting the publication of UK labor market data for September/October. AUD/USD AUD fell against USD on Monday, continuing to develop a "bearish" momentum, which has been preserved since the end of last week. Pressure on the instrument is exerted by noticeably worsened prospects for concluding a trade deal between the USA and China. At the end of last week, Donald Trump said that he was not currently considering the possibility of canceling part of the previously imposed import duties, which Beijing insists on. In addition, the parties still did not agree on the time and place of the possible signing of the agreement, which reduces the likelihood that the deal may be concluded in November. Today, the Australian dollar, which opened with the usual decline, is recovering some of the lost ground. The instrument is supported by fairly positive macroeconomic statistics from Australia. NAB Business Confidence rose from 0 to 2 points in October with the neutral forecast. NAB Business Survey rose from 2 to 3 points in October, which exceeded the expectations as well. USD/JPY USD fell against JPY on Monday, as the negative sentiment regarding the prospects for a trade agreement between the US and China outweighed the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Core Machinery Orders in Japan in September decreased by 2.9% MoM after a decrease of 2.4% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.9% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator increased by 5.1% YoY after the decrease by 14.5% YoY in the previous month. Forecasts suggested an increase of 7.9% YoY. Economy Watchers Current Index in October fell sharply from 46.7 to 36.7 points, while analysts had expected growth to 47.1 points. Oil Oil prices showed ambiguous trading dynamics on Monday, interrupting the development of weak correctional dynamics. Pressure on quotes is still provided by the uncertain prospect of a trade agreement between the United States and China. Last Saturday, Donald Trump once again emphasized that the deal would be concluded only if it is "useful" for the United States. As for the possible cancellation of some of the introduced import duties, Trump has not yet considered this possibility, which may become another stumbling block for the current negotiations.

Morning Market Review 2019-11-11 08:52 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed a confident decline against USD last Friday, updating local lows of October 15. The development of the "bearish" trend was promoted by optimistic news around the US-Chinese trade negotiations. PRC representatives said that the parties are ready to mutually cancel a number of increased import duties as part of the conclusion of a preliminary trade agreement. However, later this information was not confirmed by the American side, and Donald Trump, commenting on the spreading rumors, said that the issue remains unresolved. In addition, Trump noted that in order to conclude the first phase of a trade agreement, the PRC president will have to come to the United States. The timing of a possible signing of the document is still unknown. GBP/USD GBP fell against USD on Friday, continuing to develop a downtrend and updating local lows of October 16. Positions of the pound at the end of last trading week were under pressure amid the publication of optimistic news regarding the process of trade negotiations between the US and China. Later, however, optimism about the imminent signing of the preliminary agreement somewhat diminished, and investors turned their attention to the upcoming early parliamentary elections in Great Britain in December. Today, the pair is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers at the market. The focus of investors is on macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Among other things, investors are interested in the UK GDP data for Q3 2019. Also, markets will be interested in statistics on Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production for September. AUD/USD AUD showed a steady decline against USD on Friday, updating local lows of October 30. The development of negative dynamics was facilitated by technical factors that intensified by the end of the trading week, as well as the moderate growth of the American currency against the background of increased investor optimism regarding trade negotiations between the US and China. Friday's macroeconomic statistics was contradictory. Australian Home Loans in September grew by 1.4% MoM after growth of 2.5% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected a slowdown in the increase to 1.3% MoM. Chinese statistics reflected improvement in the dynamics of foreign trade. In October, Exports fell by 0.9% YoY after a decrease of 3.2% YoY in the previous month. Imports for the same period decreased by 6.4% YoY after a decrease of 8.5% YoY in September. The trade surplus in October amounted to 42.81B dollars against the previous value of 39.65B dollars. Analysts had expected surplus growth to only 40.83B dollars. USD/JPY USD ended last week with ambiguous dynamics against JPY. Despite the publication of quite positive Japanese data, the instrument received support from optimistic market sentiment regarding the conclusion of a preliminary agreement between the United States and China. Coincident Indicators Index in October rose from 99 to 101 points with a forecast of growth of only 99.5 points. The Leading Indicators Index for the same period fell from 91.9 to 92.2 points with a forecast of 91.7 points. Today, the instrument shows a moderate decline, despite the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Core Machinery Orders in Japan in September decreased by 2.9% MoM after a decrease of 2.4% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.9% MoM. Oil Oil prices showed ambiguous dynamics on Friday, reacting to the publication of conflicting information on the process of trade negotiations between the US and China. The quotes were pressured by the comments of Donald Trump, who stated that he had not agreed to abolish previously imposed import duties on Chinese goods just yet. Last week the media reported that the US and China are preparing for the mutual abolition of import duties as part of the signing of the first phase of the trade agreement. Moderate support for the instrument on Friday was provided by Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count report. For the reporting week, the number of oil rigs decreased from 691 to 684 units.

Morning Market Review 2019-11-08 08:45 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed a decline against USD on Thursday, updating local lows of October 16. Pressure on the euro was exerted by moderate growth in the US currency amid improved prospects for a trade agreement between the US and China. There was information in the media that the parties are ready to mutually cancel part of the previously imposed higher import duties, which indicates some progress in the negotiations. However, the timing and venue of signing the agreement are still unknown. Yesterday's macroeconomic statistics from Germany had an additional negative impact on the euro. Industrial Production in September decreased by 0.6% MoM after an increase of 0.4% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected decline by 0.4% MoM. In annual terms, the decline has accelerated from –3.9% YoY to –4.3% YoY, with the forecast of –2.9% YoY. GBP/USD GBP fell against USD on Thursday, noting a new local low since October 24. The results of the Bank of England meeting, as well as the continued moderate growth of the dollar against the backdrop of improving prospects for a trade agreement between the United States and China, contributed to the decrease in the instrument. As expected, the British regulator kept the key interest rate at 0.75%, and the volume of the quantitative easing program remained at 435B pounds. At the same time, the vote to maintain the rate was not unanimous. Two representatives of the regulator spoke out for its decline due to the high level of uncertainty in the global economy and the risks that Brexit brings. AUD/USD AUD rose slightly against USD on Thursday, but again returned to decline during today's Asian session. The Australian currency was boosted yesterday by positive data from Australia on September export dynamics, which allowed for a stronger trade surplus. Additional support for the instrument was provided by positive news regarding the process of trade negotiations between the USA and China. Today, the instrument is again declining, despite the publication of moderately optimistic statistics on exports from China. In October, exports fell by 0.9% YoY after a decrease of 3.2% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected further deterioration in the dynamics of the indicator to –3.9% YoY. Imports for the same period decreased by 6.4% YoY after a decrease of 8.5% YoY in September. The trade surplus in October increased from 39.65B to 42.81B dollars, which exceeded market forecasts of 40.83B dollars. USD/JPY USD rose against JPY on Thursday, updating local highs of May 31. The development of the "bullish" dynamics of the instrument was facilitated by the depreciation of the Japanese currency against the background of an upbeat sentiment regarding the conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China. Despite the fact that currently the new terms for signing the preliminary trade agreement have not been agreed upon, the comments of the officials allow one to believe in real progress in the ongoing negotiations. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. The yen is moderately supported by the Japanese macroeconomic data. Household Spending in September grew by 9.5% YoY after growth by 1.0% YoY a month earlier. Analysts had expected growth by 7.8% YoY. Overall wage income of employees in September rose by 0.8% YoY after a decrease of 0.1% YoY in the previous month, with a forecast of +0.4% YoY. Oil Oil prices showed moderate growth on Thursday, responding to news that China and the US agreed on a plan to mutually reduce existing high import duties after a preliminary trade deal was concluded. However, the timing of the signing of this agreement is not yet known, although earlier information appeared in the media that the date could be postponed to early December. Today, oil quotes are relatively stable and expect new drivers to appear at the market. On Friday, investors are focused on Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count report in the United States. Morning Market Review 2019-11-07 08:50 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed an insignificant decline against USD on Wednesday, continuing the development of the "bearish" impulse formed at the beginning of the week. The euro returned to decline closer to the opening of the American trading session, while the morning was characterized by growth, which was supported by good macroeconomic statistics from Europe. German Factory Orders rose by 1.3% MoM in September, after falling by 0.4% MoM in the previous month. Experts expected a growth of 0.1% MoM. Markit Composite PMI in Germany in October rose from 48.6 to 48.9 points, which also exceeded neutral market forecasts. The EU Services PMI in October increased from 51.6 to 52.2 points with the forecast of 51.8 points. Retail sales in September showed an increase of 3.1% YoY, accelerating from the previous +2.7% YoY and with a forecast of +2.5% YoY. GBP/USD GBP keeps downward direction, updating local lows of October 29. The development of negative trend is facilitated by the newly arisen uncertainty regarding the process of trade negotiations between the USA and China. The parties still have not agreed on the time and place for signing the preliminary agreement, while China continues to insist on the abolition of both previously introduced import duties and the planned tariff increase in December. The US are in no hurry to make concessions to the PRC on this issue, considering the December increase in duties as a guarantee that China will be forced to make a deal. Brexit and the upcoming early parliamentary elections in December remain as negative factors for the pound. Today, investors expect the Bank of England meeting on the interest rate. It is expected that the regulator will not change the parameters of monetary policy in the face of significant uncertainty. Nevertheless, investors will be interested in updated forecasts of the BoE, as well as in a quarterly report on inflation. AUD/USD AUD declines against USD, updating close local lows of October 30. The development of negative trend is facilitated by a moderate growth of the US dollar across the entire spectrum of the market, while investors expect new drivers to appear. Today, the Australian currency is declining, despite the publication of positive macroeconomic statistics from Australia. AiG Construction Index went up from 42.6 to 43.9 points in October. Exports from Australia increased by 3% in September after falling by 3% in the previous month. Imports also increased by 3% after zero dynamics in August. Due to strong export growth, Australia's Trade Surplus in September rose significantly from AUD 5.926B to 7.180B. Analysts had expected a decline to AUD 5B. USD/JPY USD showed a slight decline against JPY on Wednesday, retreating from local highs, updated the day before. Pressure on the yen was exerted by the published minutes of the Bank of Japan meeting on monetary policy, as well as by macroeconomic statistics from Japan. As expected, the protocols reflected the regulator’s commitment to low interest rates, which stimulate weak inflation in the country. It is expected that rates will remain unchanged until Q2 2020 (while the head of regulator Haruhiko Kuroda does not deny the possibility of a new stimulation of inflation in case of urgent need). Wednesday's statistics on Manufacturing PMI from Jibun Bank reflected a decline in October from 52.8 to 49.7 points against the forecast of 50.3 points. Oil Oil prices showed an active decline on Wednesday, retreating from local highs. Pressure on the quotes was exerted by the results of EIA Crude Oil Inventories report, according to which, over the week ending November 1, oil reserves increased by 7.929M barrels after an increase of 5.702M barrels over the past period. Analysts had expected an increase of only 1.515M barrels. US oil production remained unchanged at 12.600M barrels per day. Additional pressure on the quotes was also exerted by the news that some OPEC+ participants are more interested in following all the regulations of the current agreement to limit production, rather than expanding the volume of restrictions in the future.

Morning Market Review 2019-11-06 08:56 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed a steady decline against USD on Tuesday, updating local lows of October 16. The development of negative dynamics in the instrument was facilitated by the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics, as well as the general growth of the American currency across the entire spectrum of the market. The strongest support for the dollar was provided by data on ISM Services PMI. In October, the indicator rose from 52.6 to 54.7 points, exceeding its forecast of 53.5 points. Today, the pair is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers at the market. Investors are focused on business activity indices in Europe for October. Separately, traders expect publication of the dynamics of Factory Orders in Germany for September. GBP/USD GBP showed flat dynamics on Tuesday, ending the session with almost zero result. Moderate support for the pound was provided by Markit Services PMI in the UK. In October, the indicator rose from 49.5 to 50.0 points, which was slightly better than the forecasts of 49.7 points. In turn, BRC Retail Sales Monitor data came out worse than expected. In October, retail sales rose by 0.1% YoY after a 1.7% YoY decline in September and a forecast of 0.5% YoY growth. AUD/USD AUD showed strong growth on Tuesday, updating local highs of October 31. However, the instrument failed to consolidate at new highs, and by the time the US trading session opened, it had lost most of its gains. Australian currency was supported by the results of the RBA meeting and the comments of the head of the regulator. As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its key interest rate at 0.75%. At the same time, investors hope that in the near future the regulator will not change the parameters of monetary policy significantly. RBA head Philip Lowe supported such sentiments, noting that the period of low interest rates will be quite long. Correction of the instrument was facilitated by the publication of ISM Services PMI with the opening of the American trading session. In October, the index showed growth from 52.6 to 54.7 points, which turned out to be better than market expectations of 53.5 points. USD/JPY USD strengthened against JPY on Tuesday, rising to local highs of October 30. The growth of the US currency was due to the publication of a number of positive macroeconomic indicators from the United States, as well as a decrease in market demand for safe-haven currencies, as investors are still optimistic about the process of trade negotiations between the US and China. Today, the pair is trading in both directions, despite the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Jibun Bank Services PMI in October showed a decrease from 52.8 to 49.7 points against the forecast of 50.3 points. Oil Oil prices showed moderate growth on Tuesday, receiving support from increased optimism regarding a preliminary trade agreement between the US and China. In addition, since China continues to insist on the abolition of the planned increase in import duties on December 15 as well as the tariffs introduced in September, investors expect Washington to make concessions in this issue, which will significantly reduce the degree of trade tension in the market. OPEC's updated forecasts for production volumes over the next few years also provided moderate support for quotes on Tuesday: by 2024, oil production should be reduced to 32.8M barrels per day. In addition, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report for the week ending November 1 reflected sharp growth in stocks by 4.26M barrels after a decline of 0.708M barrels for the previous period. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of an official report on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy.

Morning Market Review 2019-11-05 08:39 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed a steady decline against USD on Monday, retreating from local highs, updated at the end of last week. Pressure on the euro was exerted by moderate growth in the US currency amid improved prospects for a trade agreement between the US and China. In addition, support to the dollar is still provided by strong data from the October labor market report published last Friday. Macroeconomic statistics released on Monday provided little support to the euro. Markit Manufacturing PMI in October rose from 45.7 to 45.9 points with a neutral forecast. German Manufacturing PMI for the same period strengthened from 41.9 to 42.1 points, which, however, is still far from the 50-point mark. Sentix Investor Confidence indicator rose from –16.8 to –4.5 points in November against a forecast of –13.8 points. GBP/USD GBP showed a slight decline against USD on Monday, falling after an increase of last week. The development of negative dynamics in the instrument was facilitated by the strengthening of the American currency across the entire spectrum of the market after the publication of strong statistics on business conditions from ISM and the growth of investor expectations regarding the successful conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China. The British currency, in turn, remains under pressure from the development of the political crisis in the country preparing for the early elections on December 12. There is still no unity of opinion among the political forces, and therefore there is no reason to count on a favorable outcome for Boris Johnson. UK macroeconomic statistics released today are worse than market expectations. BRC Retail Sales Monitor in October showed an increase of 0.1% YoY after declining by 1.7% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.5% MoM. AUD/USD AUD showed a steady decline against USD on Monday, retreating from local highs, updated at the end of last week. Today, the instrument is growing moderately, responding to improved prospects for a US trade partnership with China and Europe. The focus of investors is also on the RBA decision on the interest rate. As expected, the regulator left it at the level of 0.75%. Australian statistics published today is contradictory. Commonwealth Bank's Composite PMI in October fell from 50.7 to 50 points. Services PMI fell from 50.8 to 50.1 points. AiG Services index went up from 51.5 to 54.2 points in October. USD/JPY USD rose against JPY on Monday, continuing to develop a weak "bullish" impulse formed at the end of last week. Japanese markets were closed on Monday to celebrate Culture Day, so investors focused on official statements of last week and the publication of recent macroeconomic statistics. Declining demand for a safe yen was facilitated by statements by US Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross, who noted that US companies would soon be able to resume cooperation with the Chinese Huawei. In addition, Washington said it was considering freezing the growth of import duties on European and Japanese cars. Today the pair is also growing. Investors expect macroeconomic statistics from the United States on business activity and economic optimism in October-November. Oil Oil prices showed moderate growth on Monday, responding to positive statements about the process of working out a trade agreement between the US and China. It is expected that a preliminary version of the deal will be signed in mid-November. In addition, the market is optimistic about the statements of US officials about the possibility of an early resumption of cooperation between US enterprises and the Chinese Huawei. An additional factor in the growth of oil quotes was Iran’s statements about its intention to support the idea of further reducing oil production at the OPEC+ meeting in December. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report for the week as of November 1. The previous report reflected an insignificant increase in volumes of 0.592M barrels.

Morning Market Review 2019-11-01 08:49 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed ambiguous trading against USD on Thursday. At the same time, the instrument managed to update the local highs of October 21, since the position of the American currency remains unstable. Investors were focused on the results of the Fed meeting, where the interest rate was expectedly reduced. Macroeconomic data from Europe also had a significant impact on the dynamics of the instrument. The eurozone Core Consumer Price Index rose slightly from 1% YoY to 1.1% YoY in October, which was better than the neutral forecast. Eurozone GDP in Q3 2019 increased by 0.2% QoQ and by 1.1% YoY, which roughly coincided with market expectations: +0.1% QoQ and +1.1% YoY. The Unemployment Rate in the euro area in September remained unchanged at 7.5%, while analysts had expected it to decline to 7.4%. GBP/USD GBP showed uncertain growth against USD on Thursday, updating local highs of October 22. The decline in purchasing activity on GBP was contributed by not the strongest macroeconomic publications from the UK, as well as by a decrease in optimistic sentiments regarding the trade deal between the US and China. Earlier the parties prepared the final version of the preliminary agreement, which was to be signed at the highest level during the APEC summit in Chile. The day before, the Chilean authorities had to cancel the summit due to ongoing civil unrest, so the new date for the possible signing of the agreement is not yet known. Today, the pound is trading with an increase. The US dollar is under pressure in anticipation of the publication of the October labor market report. In addition, investors expect speeches by representatives of the Fed (John Williams, Richard Clarida and others). AUD/USD AUD showed a decline against USD on Thursday, retreating from its local highs of July 26. Pressure on the Australian dollar was exerted by deteriorating prospects for a trade agreement between the US and China against the backdrop of the cancellation of the APEC summit in Chile, as well as uncertain macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China. Non-Manufacturing PMI in China fell from 53.7 to 52.8 points in October, with the forecast of 53.9 points. NBS Manufacturing PMI in October also showed a negative trend from 49.8 to 49.3 points with a neutral forecast. Today, the instrument is growing, despite the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia. AiG Manufacturing index went down from 54.7 to 51.6 points in October. Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.1 to 50 points in October with a neutral forecast. USD/JPY USD fell significantly against JPY on Thursday, updating local lows of October 11. The development of correctional dynamics was facilitated by weak macroeconomic indicators from the United States, as well as by deterioration in market sentiment regarding the conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China. Earlier, investors were counting on signing the final document at the APEC summit in Chile, which was canceled the day before due to ongoing protests in the country. Macroeconomic statistics from Japan, as well as comments by the Bank of Japan on the interest rate, had a noticeable impact on the instrument on Thursday. As expected, the Japanese regulator left the rate at the same negative level of –0.1%. At the same time, the head of the Bank, Haruhiko Kuroda, emphasized that the regulator can continue its further reduction if the impetus to inflation does not recover. Today, the yen is relatively stable. Further growth of the Japanese currency is hindered by weak data from Japan. Unemployment Rate in Japan in September unexpectedly increased from 2.2% to 2.4% with a forecast of 2.3%. Manufacturing PMI from the Jibun Bank in October fell from 48.9 to 48.4 points against the forecast of 48.5 points. Oil Oil prices showed negative dynamics on Thursday, responding to the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from China and remained under pressure from data indicating a sharp increase in US crude oil inventories. Chinese Manufacturing PMI showed a decline in October for the sixth time in a row, which casts doubt on the hope of an early recovery in demand for oil. The market also reacted negatively to the cancellation of the APEC summit in Chile, at which it was planned to sign the final agreement between the United States and China. Today, investors will be focused on the October report on the US labor market. In addition, investors are waiting for Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count.

Morning Market Review 2019-10-31 08:54 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR rose significantly against USD on Wednesday, continuing the development of the "bullish" momentum formed at the beginning of the week. The development of the uptrend was due to the weak position of the US currency, which retreated before the Fed meeting, while the macroeconomic background from Europe remained ambiguous. Industrial Sentiment Index in euro area in October fell from –8.9 to –9.5 points with a forecast of –8.9 points. Business and Consumer Survey fell from 101.7 to 100.8 points, which also turned out to be worse than market expectations. At the same time, Business Climate indicator increased from –0.23 to –0.19 points for the same period against the forecast of –0.24 points. The data on inflation from Germany were not much better. Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices in October showed an increase of 0.1% MoM and 0.9% YoY, which was better than market expectations of 0.0% MoM and 0.8% YoY, but still worse than target levels of the ECB. GBP/USD GBP rose against USD on Wednesday and continues to develop upward momentum during today's Asian session. The pound is supported by the fact that the British Parliament approved early elections in the UK in December. These elections will be the third ones in the last four years, which characterizes the instability of the British political system on the Brexit issue. Also, this opportunity will be the last one for parties that oppose Brexit. The pound grew on Wednesday also due to the results of the Fed meeting. As expected, the US regulator lowered the interest rate by 0.25%. The Fed officials noted that this reduction does not mean the beginning of a large-scale period of reduction in rates, although President Trump would like it to happen. The regulator acts "according to the situation", which, however, still shows few signs of improvement. AUD/USD AUD showed strong growth against USD on Wednesday, updating local highs of July 30. The main reason for the growth of the instrument was the weakening of the US currency against the backdrop of another decrease in the interest rate by the Fed. In turn, Wednesday's statistics on consumer inflation from Australia were ambiguous. In Q3 2019, Consumer Price Index slowed from +0.6% QoQ to +0.5% QoQ, which coincided with market expectations. In annual terms, inflation remained positive, and the rate rose from +1.6% YoY to +1.7% YoY. Today, the instrument also is trading with a raise. Moderate support for the Australian dollar is provided by Building Approvals indicator. In September, it sharply increased from –1.1% MoM to 7.6% MoM, with a forecast of +0.5% MoM. USD/JPY USD showed ambiguous dynamics against JPY on Wednesday. During the day, the instrument was trading higher, despite the publication of strong macroeconomic statistics on retail sales in Japan. Closer to the opening of the American session, the "bullish" activity began to decline significantly, as investors expected the outcome of the Fed meeting. The regulator lowered the key interest rate from 2% to 1.75%, which coincided with market expectations. During the Asian session, the dollar is losing ground again. Support for the yen is provided by the data on industrial production in Japan. In September, Industrial Production showed an increase of 1.4% MoM after a decrease of 1.2% MoM last month. Analysts had expected the increase of 0.4% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator grew by 1.1% YoY, being much better than the forecast of –4.1% YoY. Oil Oil prices fell markedly on Wednesday, reacting to the emergence of negative news regarding the process of trade negotiations between the US and China. Washington noted that the parties continue to work on a joint agreement, which is expected to be signed at the APEC summit in November. However, there are risks that the parties will not have time to agree on all the necessary details before the start of the summit, and the US will continue to increase pressure on China by raising import duties. Another negative factor for the quotes was the published report from the US Department of Energy, according to which over the week as of October 25, oil reserves unexpectedly rose by 5.702 million barrels, while analysts expected them to increase by only 0.494 million barrels. The previous report reflected the reduction of stocks by 1.699 million barrels.

Morning Market Review 2019-10-30 08:45 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed an increase against USD on Tuesday, continuing the development of a "bullish" impetus formed the day before. Moderate support for the euro is provided by the newly improved prospect of a trade agreement between the United States and China. Earlier this week, Donald Trump confirmed his intention to discuss all the final details of the agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in November. In addition, it became known that the US is preparing an expanded list of Chinese goods that will be exempted from high import duties. Today, the pair is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers at the market. Investors are focused on the Fed meeting on the interest rate followed by a press conference. The US regulator is expected to reduce rates from 2% to 1.75%. GBP/USD GBP showed multi-directional dynamics of trading against USD on Tuesday, ending the session with almost zero result. The development of negative dynamics in the instrument was facilitated by the fact that the British parliament expectedly rejected the idea of Boris Johnson to hold early elections in December. However, today the Prime Minister will try to push his initiative again. Another negative factor was uncertain macroeconomic statistics from the UK. BoE Consumer Credit in September fell more than predicted from 0.969B to 0.828B pounds, while analysts expected a decrease to 0.9B. Net Lending to Individuals for the same period fell from 4.8B to 4.6B pounds. AUD/USD AUD rose significantly against USD on Tuesday, updating local highs of October 22. The "bullish" trend strengthened due to the optimistic comments by officials regarding the process of working out a trade agreement between the United States and China. In addition, USD is under pressure from the upcoming US Fed meeting, at which, as expected, the rate will be reduced by 0.25%. Today, the pair is trading in both directions due to the uncertain statistics from Australia. HIA New Home Sales in Australia in September slowed down from +7.3% MoM to +5.7% MoM, which turned out to be worse than the average forecasts. Australia's Consumer Price Index in Q3 2019 expectedly slowed down its growth from +0.6% QoQ to +0.5% QoQ. Trimmed Mean CPI for the same period remained at the previous level of +0.4% QoQ. USD/JPY USD showed a slight decline against JPY on Tuesday, after updating local highs of August 1. Investors do not rush to buy USD, waiting for the upcoming Fed meeting, at which, most likely, the key interest rate will be reduced by 0.25%. On the other hand, investor interest in risk is supported by optimistic signals from US and PRC officials regarding a trade deal. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. The Japanese currency is supported by good data from Japan on the dynamics of retail sales. In monthly terms, sales in September accelerated from +4.6% MoM to +7.1% MoM. In annual terms, the growth was even more significant: from +1.8% YoY to +9.1% YoY. Oil Oil prices fell on Tuesday, but managed to recover closer to the end of the afternoon session. The quotes were pressured by the comments of officials, which led to an increase in doubts about the continuation of the OPEC+ policy aimed at limiting oil production in 2020. In addition, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report for the week as of October 25 again reflected growth in stocks by 0.592 million barrels after growth by 4.45 million barrels for the previous period. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of an official report on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy.

Morning Market Review 2019-10-29 08:37 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed moderate growth against USD on Monday, correcting from local lows updated last Friday. In addition to very strong technical factors, the euro was supported by uncertain macroeconomic statistics from the USA. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index in October fell from 1.5 to –5.1 points, which turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations of 1.4 points. Chicago Fed National Activity in September fell from 0.15 to –0.45 points with a forecast of –0.37 points. Today, the euro is trading in both directions again, waiting for the appearance of new drivers at the market. Investors are focused on the data from the US on Redbook Retail Price Index, Pending Home Sales and CB Consumer Confidence. GBP/USD GBP rose against USD, having received support from the development of correctional sentiment in the US currency across the entire market. The pound also reacted positively to the formal approval of the Brexit deadline extension until January 31, 2020. Thus, the UK will be able to leave the EU before the end of January next year, as soon as it ratifies the final version of the agreement in parliament. Boris Johnson has not been able to secure the support of the majority yet, so he insists on holding early parliamentary elections in early December. Today, British investors expect publication of data on Consumer Credit for September, Nationwide Housing Price Index, and Mortgage Approvals for September in the UK. AUD/USD AUD rose against USD on Monday also maintaining upward momentum during today's Asian session. Moderate support for the instrument is provided by increased prospects for concluding a preliminary trade agreement between the US and China by the end of this year. Participants of the ongoing negotiation process respond very positively to the progress made. The final version of the agreement can be signed at the APEC summit, which will be held on November 16-17 in Chile. USD/JPY USD showed growth against JPY on Monday, updating local highs of August 1. An increase in the instrument at the market was promoted by an increase in investor interest in risk amid a decrease in concerns about Brexit. In addition, traders respond positively to preliminary results of the negotiation process between the United States and China and hope that a trade agreement that will avoid escalating the tariff war can be signed in November. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Investors take a lead from Japanese statistics on Tokyo consumer inflation. October Consumer Price Index remained at the previous level of 0.4% YoY, while forecasts assumed its growth to 0.5% YoY. CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy rose from 0.6% YoY to 0.7% YoY, which turned out to be better than the forecast of 0.5% YoY. Oil Oil prices returned to decline on Monday, retreating from local highs after a moderate upward rally last week. Investors are optimistic about progress in US-Chinese trade negotiations, but negative macroeconomic statistics and disappointing forecasts of energy demand have a restraining effect. Some support for oil quotes is provided by OPEC+ actions. The organization intends to expand the current agreement on limiting oil production, but the next meeting of the cartel is planned only for December. Today, investors are focused on the American Petroleum Institute Weekly Crude Oil Stock report as of October 25.

Morning Market Review 2019-10-28 08:51 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed a moderate decline against USD last Friday, updating local lows of October 17. The development of negative dynamics in the instrument at the end of last week was contributed by uncertain macroeconomic statistics from Germany. GfK German Consumer Climate index in October showed a decrease from 9.8 to 9.6 points against a forecast of 9.8 points. Ifo Current Conditions in October fell from 98.6 to 97.8 points, while analysts expected a decrease to 98.0 points. At the same time Ifo Expectations index for the same period rose from 90.9 to 91.5 points with a forecast of 91.0 points. German Business Expectations index in October remained at the previous level of 94.6 points, contrary to expectations of a slight decrease to 94.5 points. Today, the pair is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers at the market. On Monday, investors expect one of the last speeches by the ECB President Mario Draghi who will soon be replaced by Christine Lagarde. GBP/USD GBP is mainly falling, retreating from local highs, updated on October 22. The focus of investors remains on the situation with Brexit. At the end of last week, EU members agreed on a new postponement for the UK, which did not manage to ratify the new version of the agreement on the country's exit from the EU. The deadline for the new postponement has not yet been approved. European Council President Donald Tusk still insists on a postponement until January 31, 2020, but not all EU members agree. France takes the toughest stance on this issue. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson continues to insist on holding early elections to the British parliament, but is not expected to receive unanimous support in this matter. AUD/USD AUD showed a slight correctional growth against USD at the end of last week, recovering after a steady decline of October 24. Technical factors contributed to the development of the "bullish" trend in the instrument, while the fundamental picture remained the same. The macroeconomic statistics from the US published on Friday was contradictory. Michigan Consumer Sentiment in October fell from 96.0 to 95.5 points with a forecast of 96.0 points. In turn, Monthly Budget Statement in September indicated a surplus of 83B dollars against the deficit of –200B dollars a month earlier. USD/JPY USD ended last week with a slight increase against JPY, updating local highs of October 17. Macroeconomic statistics from Japan released on Friday showed little or no support to the yen. Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks for the week as of October 18 slightly increased from 508.2B to 522.3B yen. At the same time, Foreign Bonds Buying for the same period fell sharply from 1,062.2B to 536.1B yen. Today, the pair retains a weak "bullish" advantage, waiting for new drivers to appear on the market. Today, not much interesting macroeconomic statistics are expected, so investors will focus on the data on consumer inflation in Japan which will be published on Tuesday. Oil Oil prices showed moderate growth last Friday, continuing the development of the "bullish" momentum formed earlier. Active support for the quotes was provided by a report from the US Department of Energy, which indicated an unexpected reduction in oil reserves by 1.7M barrels. Additional support for the instrument was provided by OPEC comments. Representatives of the organization said that they are considering more significant restrictions on oil production, which will compensate for the low demand, which is expected in 2020. Friday's Baker Hughes report on active oil rigs in the USA also provided moderate support for quotes. For the reporting week, the number of active oil rigs decreased sharply from 713 to 696 units.

Morning Market Review 2019-10-24 08:42 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed a slight increase against USD on Wednesday, despite the fact that during the day the instrument mainly declined. Some pressure on EUR was exerted by macroeconomic statistics released on Wednesday. According to preliminary estimates, the level of Consumer Confidence in the euro area in October fell from –6.5 to –7.6 points, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of –6.7 points. Today, the pair is strengthening again. Investors are waiting for statistics on business activity from Markit in the euro area in October, as well as the publication of the ECB decision on deposit and interest rates, followed by a press conference. It is expected that the European regulator will not change the basic parameters of monetary policy, but may resort to additional support measures before the end of the year. GBP/USD GBP strengthened against USD yesterday, recovering from a steady decline on Tuesday. The focus of investors remains on the situation with Brexit. Optimism from the approval by the British parliament of the agreement with the EU quickly gave way to negative sentiment, since Boris Johnson's initial plans do not seem to come true. The UK is again forced to ask for a postponement, which threatens with another delay and the further development of the internal political crisis. AUD/USD AUD showed flat dynamics on Wednesday, ending the daily session with almost no result. There are practically no interesting macroeconomic statistics at the market, therefore the movement of the instrument is mainly of a technical nature. In addition, the same factors remain in the focus of attention: trade negotiations between China and the United States and the situation around Brexit. Today, the instrument is trading with a slight decrease. Pressure on AUD is exerted by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Australia on business activity. The Commonwealth Bank Services PMI in October showed a decrease from 52.4 to 50.8 points with a forecast of 52.2 points. At the same time, Manufacturing PMI over the same period decreased from 50.3 to 50.1 points, which was significantly better than market forecasts of 49.0 points. USD/JPY USD showed moderate growth against JPY yesterday, but again returned to decline during the Asian session on October 24. The growth of USD is facilitated by a number of technical factors, while the macroeconomic background of the instrument remains ambiguous. Additional pressure on the yen is exerted by the expectation of the Bank of Japan meeting, which will be held next week. Given the latest macroeconomic statistics from Japan, it is likely that the regulator can take additional measures to stimulate the economy and lower interest rates. Today, JPY is growing, despite the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in October fell from 48.9 to 48.5 points, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 48.8 points. Oil Oil prices rose significantly on Wednesday, receiving support from a report from the US Department of Energy, according to which US oil inventories unexpectedly fell by 1.699 million barrels over the week as of October 18, after rising by 9.281 million barrels over the past period. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at 2.232 million barrels. US oil production remained unchanged at 12.600 million barrels per day, while refining capacity grew by 2.1% to 85.2%, which exceeded market forecasts of +0.9%.

Morning Market Review 2019-10-23 08:41 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed a decline against USD on Tuesday, continuing the development of a correctional impetus formed the day before. The pair is trading under the influence of technical factors, while the fundamental background and macroeconomic statistics remain ambiguous. Some support for the euro is provided by the situation around Brexit. The British parliament approved a new version of the agreement, but this does not mean that Britain is ready to leave the EU. Now the parliamentarians need to consider all the amendments put forward earlier, and then the European Commission should ratify the agreement. Today, the pair is declining again. Today's macroeconomic background is rather poor; therefore, the instrument's motion vector is not expected to change much. Analysts expect the release of statistics on German 10-Year Bund Auction and preliminary data on Consumer Confidence in October from the euro area. GBP/USD After a confident rally which lasted a week and a half, GBP showed a correctional decline against USD on Tuesday. The development of negative dynamics in the instrument was facilitated by technical factors, as well as a marked decrease in optimism regarding Brexit before the current deadline, which is scheduled for October 31. The night before, it became known that the British Parliament expressed fundamental consent with the new version of the deal with the EU, but this cannot be called a full-fledged victory. Boris Johnson urges the Parliament to consider all additional amendments to the agreement within three days to close this issue before the end of the week. Parliament disagreed with Johnson’s schedule, which is likely to lead to a postponement of Brexit deadlines once again with EU consent. AUD/USD AUD fell against USD on Tuesday, retreating from updated local highs of September 16. The decrease in the instrument is largely due to the technical factors of USD correction and the semi-empty macroeconomic background of the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, moderate support for AUD is provided by optimism regarding the conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China. Donald Trump is still betting on the APEC summit, which will be held in November in Chile. The Chinese side is also optimistic, noting that negotiations are ongoing at the moment. USD/JPY USD fell slightly against JPY on Tuesday, correcting after weak growth earlier this week. Japanese markets were closed on Tuesday due to the national holiday, so statistics from the United States were in the spotlight. Existing Home Sales in September decreased by 2.2% MoM after growth of 1.5% MoM a month earlier. Analysts expected a decline of 0.7% MoM. At the same time, Richmond Manufacturing Index in October unexpectedly increased from –9 to 8 points with a forecast of –7 points. Oil Oil prices showed moderate growth on Tuesday, responding to optimistic signals on the process of trade negotiations between the US and China. This time, the Chinese side made positive statements. China's Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng noted that the parties managed to achieve significant progress in the negotiations and expressed hope for concluding the agreement soon. More confident growth in quotes yesterday was hampered by the publication of API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report. For the week as of October 18, the indicator increased again by 4.45 million barrels after an increase of 10.50 million barrels over the past period. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of the EIA Crude Oil Inventories.

Morning Market Review 2019-10-22 08:41 (GMT+2) EUR/USD The European currency showed ambiguous trading against the US dollar on Monday. At the same time, the euro was increasing during the day, which allowed the instrument to update the local highs of August 14. The development of flat trading yesterday was facilitated by the correctional sentiment in USD, which was significantly reduced last week. In addition, Monday's macroeconomic background remained half empty, so investors again focused on Brexit issues and the conclusion of a trade agreement between China and the United States, which did not add support to the instrument. Meanwhile, the German Producer Price Index in September showed an increase of 0.1% MoM after a decline of 0.5% MoM last month. Analysts had expected negative dynamics to remain at –0.1% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator fell by 0.1% YoY after rising by 0.3% YoY in August. Experts expected a decrease of 0.3% YoY. GBP/USD The British pound showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on Monday, maintaining a "bullish" momentum by the end of the afternoon session. Pressure on the pound is still exerted by the uncertain situation around Brexit. After the failure of the urgent vote in the British Parliament last Saturday, the probability of Britain leaving the EU before October 31 significantly decreased, but Boris Johnson continues to insist on his plan. The parliament ordered Johnson to request a new deferment from the EU until January 31, 2020, which was done. Nevertheless, the British Prime Minister expects to resolve internal contradictions in parliament and ratify the agreement. Otherwise, Johnson insists that Britain leave the EU on October 31 without a deal, which could threaten him with problems with the law. AUD/USD The Australian dollar showed moderate growth against the US currency on Monday, updating local highs of September 16. Despite the attempt of correction of the US dollar, the position of the Australian currency remains quite stable. The instrument is supported by the market's anticipation of a preliminary trade agreement between the US and China in mid-November. Last Friday, Donald Trump expressed hope for a deal at a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which will be held in Chile in November. USD/JPY The US dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Monday, recovering from the "bearish" end of last week. The growth of the American currency was promoted by technical factors, as well as the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Export volumes in September showed a decrease of 5.2% YoY after falling by 8.2% YoY in August. Analysts expected a decline of 4.0% YoY. Imports for the same period decreased by only 1.5% YoY after the collapse of 11.9% YoY last month. The indicator turned out better than its forecasts of –2.8% YoY. Trade Balance in September amounted to –123.0 billion Japanese yen, which turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations of +54.0 billion yen. In August, Trade Balance was –143.5 billion yen. Oil Oil prices showed ambiguous trading dynamics on Monday. Pressure on quotes is provided by the uncertain prospect of a trade agreement between the United States and China. Last Friday, US President Donald Trump expressed hope that an agreement could be signed at his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in mid-November in Chile, but analysts are very skeptical about such statements. An additional uncertainty factor for the oil market remains the situation around Brexit. Everything is pointing to a new postponement, which, given Boris Johnson’s inflexibility, could turn into an aggravation of the domestic political crisis in Great Britain.